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Links 12/7/2024

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Could Evidence of Primordial Black Holes Be Hiding in Plain Sight? Universe Today

Does Space Need Environmentalists? Noema

The order of anarchy aeon

Pee-back time: Anti-Pee Paint Splashes Back at Public Urination ZMEScience (Dr. Kevin)

The obesity crisis in the USA: why are there no signs of plateauing yet? Lancet

#COVID-19/Pandemics

Health Beat: Unraveling the mystery of long COVID WFMZ

US Government Orders Nationwide Testing of Milk for Bird Flu to Stop the Virus’s Spread Associated Press

Climate/Environment

How the world’s biggest offshore wind company was blown off course Financial Times (Kevin W)

Day after nuclear power vow, Meta announces largest-ever datacenter powered by fossil fuels The Register

New Nuclear Fuel Rods Endure 3,452F For 120-Day Test, Raising Hopes for Safer Reactors Interesting Engineering

China?

China’s ban on key high-tech materials could have broad impact on industries, economy Associated Press (Kevin W)

Koreas

Reprieve for South Korea’s Yoon as ruling party boycotts martial law impeachment vote South China Morning Post. Not good.

European Disunion

The tragedy of Michel Barnier Politico

Prosecutor Blocks Lawsuit Against EU’s Ursula von der Leyen Over Pfizergate Sputnik (Kevin W)

Israel v. The Resistance

More than 50 killed as Israel hits Gaza refugee camp, vicinity of hospital Aljazeera

Cash Crisis in Gaza: “I barter my belongings to eat” Drop Site

Bearing Witness to the Israel-Gaza War Lee Mordechai (Stacy B)

Israeli warplanes attack southern Lebanon in latest violation of ceasefire PressTV

Israeli ‘military rule’ in Gaza carries $7bn yearly price tag: Report The Cradle (Kevin W)

ICYMI: Mehdi Challenges Piers Morgan on ‘Beheaded’ Babies and October 7th Zeteo. I have no idea how any one has the stomach to subject themselves to having the smarmy Piers Morgan barely let them get a word in. But here Piers Morgan is on Medhi’s show.

New Not-So-Cold War

Dmytro Kuleba joins the Belfer Center as Senior Fellow Harvard Gazette (Kevin W). This sort of thing is more common than you may realize, see here for a recent example

U.S. Has Stopped Ukrainian ATACMS Strikes On Russia Moon of Alabama (Kevin W)

EU fails to agree on new Russia sanctions – Reuters RT (Kevin W)

JCS CHIEF GENERAL CHARLES BROWN JUST PROVED THAT NOTHING SHORT OF UKRAINE’S SURRENDER IS NEGOTIABLE WITH THE US — THAT’S CAPITULATION, NOT NEGOTIATION John Helmer

CNN interview with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov: compelling for those who want to think for themselves Gilbert Doctorow (guurst)

Syraqistan

Anti-regime armed groups reach Syria’s Homs city center Anadolu Agency

Mark Sleboda: The Wars in the West Asia and Ukraine – Georgia & Syria on Red Alert Dialogue Works. Sleboda argues the jihadi forces are 5-7x the 15,000-20,000 claimed by the likes of Alastair Crooke, and that Erdogan will be able to dictate terms.

Putting Syria’s Conflict in Context: Reality on the Ground Driving Difficult Decisions Brian Berletic, YouTube

Erdogan’s Idlib shock shadows “Kursk” Alastair Crooke. A new piece trying to depict Erdogan as in a weak position. But Sleboda, who has been the most accurate in his calls of how long it would take Russia to subdue Ukraine, in his talk above describes other signs of serious crisis in Syria, such as the invisibility of Assad and Lavrov pointed acting as if Turkiye has nothing to do with the jihadi incursion.

The forces on the offensive in Syria are today’s Khmer Rouge John Wight

The End of Pluralism in the Middle East Craig Murray (Chuck L). Important.

Big Brother is Watching You Watch

Data brokers may be banned from selling your social security number The Verge (Kevin W). Way overdue.

Imperial Collapse Watch

There aren’t to small wars, there is just 1 big one Alon Mizrahi

‘Poor Material Condition’ of Navy Amphib Fleet Prevents Marine Deployments, Training, Says GAO USNI News (Kevin W)

Doing Development in the Polycrisis Project Syndicate (Anthony L)

Trump 2.0

Republican Senators Play Game of Chicken With Trump on Cabinet Picks Wall Street Journal. Remember, as we pointed out, the Senate nixing a Presidential nomination is exceedingly rare (IIRC the last instance was in 1971). The usual process is to make clear well before, as with Matt Gaetz, that the process will be so damaging that they are better served to withdraw.

The Hidden Logic of Trump’s National Security Picks American Conservative. Well, it’s a theory.

Rubio Is Bad News for the U.S. and Latin America Daniel Larison

White House discusses preemptive pardons for Trump critics The Hill. May embolden some bloody-minded state AGs.

Biden

PATRICK LAWRENCE: The Biden Family of Liars Consortium News. Note the FB and Twitter bans (see below) were before this piece ran.

Can Biden “Pardon” Student Debt? (w/ Braxton Brewington) Briahna Joy Gray, YouTube. Steve D:

Briahna Joy Gray’s interview with a spokesperson for the Debt Collective, which lobbies for student loan debt cancellation. The way the Biden administration handled this issue seems egregiously stupid, even for them.

Start at 16:45.

In the paywalled version, the guest says, regarding the commitment within the DOE to restarting student loan payments, “This is their life’s work.” Won’t be news to NC readers, but the bureaucratic commitment to wildly unfair and destructive policy is an enormous hurdle to a more equitable state of play.

GOP Clown Car

GOP senator to DeJoy: I will ‘kill’ your plan to reform USPS Government Executive (Kevin W)

Our No Longer Free Press

X Suspends CN Live! Producer; Facebook Blocks CN Pieces Consortium News. From a few days ago. Apologies for missing this. CN has announced a fundraising.

What a Podcast Killed by Houston Public Media Reveals About the State Takeover of the City’s Schools Jeff Bryant

Police State Watch

NYC jury stalled on Daniel Penny’s manslaughter charge in subway chokehold trial Gothamist

Three Steps to Fixing the FBI: Interview with Whistleblower Coleen Rowley Racket News (Chuck L)

Guillotine Watch

An Assassin Showed Just How Angry America Really Is Matt Stoller

The Rage and Glee That Followed a C.E.O.’s Killing Should Ring All Alarms New York Times (Kevin W)

A must watch:

Physicians Offer Little Sympathy for Slain Insurance CEO Medscape

Chuck L points out: “Phillips chose not to seek reelection to Congress here in MN 03 after his presidential bid flamed out.

Inside the shady world of health insurers — and the 1.2 seconds it takes them to deny claims The Telegraph (Kevin W)

NYPD brass say suspect in CEO assassination ‘may’ have fled the city 2 days ago Gothamist. This means, aside from doing forensics on the gun and bullets and trying to find DNA, the NYPD is done. “

Class Warfare

Democrats and Republicans express support for unelected billionaires’ plans to slash government and social spending WSWS

The Key to Affordable Living Is Moving In With Your Sibling Wall Street Journal

There’s (Still) No Such Thing As Cultural Marxism Persuasion (Micael T)

Antidote du jour (via). Channeling Erdogan:

And a bonus (Chuck L):

A second bonus (Robin K):

And a third (Chuck L):

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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303 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    ‘Figen
    @TheFigen_
    Does anyone know the rules of the game?’

    Maybe they are French cats who see Macron on TV and are imitating his flip-flopping.

    Reply ↓
    1. mrsyk

      Those cats are showing off their skills at the roly-poly, lol. You’d think there were some treats on tap. I see Mr Tuxedo has more of the proper build for top performance over the orange cats. We have a champion. And nope, not one of them is jumping into the pool to recover a soda can.
      One reason cats roll in the dust is to hide their odor making them more efficient hunters.

      Reply ↓
  2. PlutoniumKun

    The End of Pluralism in the Middle East Craig Murray (Chuck L). Important.

    I think it will take some time to work out all the machinations of what is really happening, but sadly I think Murray may be correct with this, at least to some extent (you always have to hedge your bets with this region). We are seeing an enormous betrayal at work. The Sunni states from Turkey to KSA have looked at the big picture and decided that their real enemies are the Shia and secularist states and movements and the various ethnic/cultural/religious minorities that are scattered through that region. I suspect that Hizbollah and Iran saw this coming – hence their reluctance to escalate with Israel. It is catastrophic news for the Palestinians of Gaza and the West Bank.

    This was always on the cards and you don’t have to draw in western machinations into the whole thing to see that in the cold light of day, the Palestinians don’t matter to the main Sunni leadership of the region. Turkey, KSA and the other Gulf States have long term strategic aims for their countries and notional spheres of influence – and for these a strong Israel is an irritant, but not a fundamental obstacle – unlike Iran and its allies and the remaining secularists like Assad.

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    1. Carolinian

      So then all the Sunni dictators need is to convince their respective publics to go along. And if they don’t there are always guest workers?

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      1. PlutoniumKun

        Every regime/government there would have its own network of clients/supporters, not to mention internal minorities and political groupings that need active suppression. Just because the Palestinian cause is popular in the streets doesn’t mean it’s more important to people than bread and butter issues, or other causes/issues closer to home. No government in that region will fall over a betrayal of the Palestinians unless it overlaps with a plethora of other reasons.

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        1. NN Cassandra

          If the jihadist could turn Syria and Lebanon into Abu Dhabi, then I guess the people there would go along with it. But I don’t see it happening, if for nothing else because Israel will not allow it. And frankly it would be quite wise of them, because if Syrian & Lebanon became wealthy and powerful, then inevitably there would arise someone, who, even after 40 years, would want to revisit the Golans and other issues.

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            1. The Rev Kev

              Once upon a time, Lebanon was called the ‘Switzerland of the Middle East’ while Beirut was nicknamed ‘the Paris of the Middle East.’

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              1. Wukchumni

                Indeed…

                I knew a numismatist in LA who had a thriving business in Beirut circa 1974, and then things went to shit rather dramatically~

                Closer to home, the Iranian-American who owns the general store in Tiny Town, his family had the exclusive developing rights for Kodak film for all of Iran up until 1978.

                …things change

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                1. Trees&Trunks

                  Most grievances from diasporas are lost money and they will yack about that for generations.

                  I don’t remember who said it and how exactly but the point was that you can kill a man’s (or woman’s) family and they will eventually forgive you but if you take their money they will hate you forever.

                  Never trust the diaspora for their assessment of a country if they have a monetary axe to grind.

                  Reply ↓
                  1. Skk

                    Agreed. The diaspora always have an agenda, irrespective of region or time period. Take what they say in good humor but with a sceptical eye.

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                  2. fjallstrom

                    Men sooner forget the death of their father than the loss of their patrimony

                    Which was written in a little book called The Prince by Niccolò Machiavelli.

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              2. mrsyk

                Some of the finest wines I’ve ever enjoyed were from Lebanon. There used to be a tiny Lebanese restaurant/hookah bar 110th and B’Way. When my wife had colleagues in town we would take them there. Now it’s a bloody Chipotles.

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                1. PlutoniumKun

                  Chateau Musar is a great wine, and particularly perfect for a Christmas dinner. I visited their vineyards many years ago. They were popular here in Ireland for many years as Irish soldiers returned from UN duty with a taste for it (which, given that their duty period was supposed to be ‘dry’, always raised a few eyebrows).

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                  1. mrsyk

                    Chateau Musar yes, I am sad that I will never get to visit Lebanon.
                    I recommend the Lamb and, since music sharing is happening, Renée Claude, “J’étais partie pour ne plus revenir”. (utube)

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              3. KLG

                That is exactly what I was taught in 6th-grade geography (1966-1967)! In identical words. Then something happened in June 1967.

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            2. Kouros

              Some wealth! How much military power that wealth bought? Plus it was sectarian, with very little cohesion/abassyia available.

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        2. The Rev Kev

          You know, growing up as a kid you always had this question posed of how the average German could not have known of the genocide of the Jewish people and an equal number of other groups as well. People wondered out aloud what was wrong with the Germans and came up with all these fanciful theories about medieval Germany. You saw this attitude reflected too in the 1961 film “Judgment at Nuremberg.”

          Well after the past year, all those people can STFU. We are watching a genocide in Gaza and while the Collective West arms and equips the Israelis to carry it out and stop opposition to it, hardly any of the Arab governments are lifting a finger in opposition either. Except for Lebanon and Yemen that is. I would never have predicted this and our descendants will ask what was wrong with us and come up with some fanciful theories to explain it.

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          1. Wukchumni

            I’m surprised the Israelis haven’t used Zionklon B yet, but give it time, ersatz fascists aligned with a buck to be made ‘Mericans.

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              1. ambrit

                That’s the von Sacklers! (What do they teach in school nowadays? Definitely not proper respect for ones’ betters.)

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          2. Donaldo

            Events in Gaza are peanuts when put in historical perspective. There is nothing new under the Sun, and history will be written by winners in a way that makes them champions of freedom and democracy and their religion.

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            1. The Rev Kev

              That sounds like something that Netanyahu said-

              ‘The weak crumble, are slaughtered and are erased from history while the strong, for good or for ill, survive. The strong are respected, and alliances are made with the strong, and in the end peace is made with the strong.’

              https://x.com/IsraeliPM/status/1034849460344573952

              But Israel is not really that strong. Without the US, they would be nothing.

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            2. Emma

              Yes, but an army that can’t defeat Hamas after 400+ days of genocidal siege warfare and a navy that can’t defeat the besiege Ansarallah in the Red Sea seem unlikely to have the staying power to write that history.

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                1. Wukchumni

                  A couple hundred thousand dead Palestinians in Gaza: priceless

                  There are some things money can’t buy. For everything else, there’s A(IPAC)merican
                  Express

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                1. Emma

                  They’re still fighting and winning individual skirmishes and exacting a heavy price on the Israeli occupation. This is the battle that you fight as an under resources anti-colonial resistance. You fight because the occupier leaves you no choice but to fight.

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              3. Yves Smith Post author

                Norman Finkelstein maintains Israel has won. The point for Israel was not to get rid of Hamas (that was an excuse and a “nice to have” but the ethnic cleansing and now genocide. At that, they are winning hands down.

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          3. Emma

            We are only allowed to memorialize the Holocaust and “victims of communism”. Our descendants, provided that they’re not all killed by nuclear omnicide, can analyze our present inaction (or far wise) in light of how we dealt with the extermination of natives in Australia and the Americas, mass enslave in Africa and Asia, all the genocidal wars against the USSR/Korea/Algeria… and famine by paperwork of the Irish and Indians. By sheer ignorance and moral cowardice.

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            1. Kouros

              We did have the assassination of United Health Care CEO. No memorialization there, au contraire… We might get some copycats…

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          4. Giovanni Barca

            Adam Tooze pointed out in a WW2 tv podcast (i think) that a shockingly small number of Germans outside of the major conurbations. And of course the newpapers were under the thumb of Dr. Goebbels. So we now have much less plausible deniabiluty even than we thought. (This also goes with most German boys having no idea how to drive a car and the military having to ship supplies from Germany to Italy, France and Russia by horse.)

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            1. ambrit

              The equine supply columns were the result of motor vehicle shortages. Likewise, Russia relied heavily on motor vehicles shipped in from America. Plus a lot of English tanks.
              One perennial of warfare is an “unexpected” shortage of just about everything.

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              1. Kouros

                Zukhov, in his memoirs claims that only about 4% the tanks they used were from lend lease program, from the Anglo-Americans. “A lot” is carrying a lot here…

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                1. ambrit

                  Fair point, but I read that the ‘Lend Lease’ tanks arrived at the right time to do maximum good. Russia certainly did ramp up their production as the war went along. Why isn’t America and the West ramping up production now? The “make up” of the economic system involved? During a war, I will posit that a command economy is necessary. Which assumes a unified economic command and reasonably clear sighted policy.

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          1. Giovanni Barca

            “Greater” also in the sense of so very very much worse. And no Peter Gabriel song about Sinwar yet to my knowledge.

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        4. Carolinian

          The Murray column was good but just as Alastair Crooke can be wrong so can Murray by my reading and subsequent events. Seems we will know soon just who is right. But Russia’s intervention previously was laid not just to wanting to save their naval base but also to resisting jihadis in their own country. As for the power of the Saudi regime, they couldn’t even beat the Houthis.

          The assertion here is that tiny minorities such as the Jewish Israelis and the Gulf royals can lord it over many millions in the Middle East. We’ll see.

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          1. Yves Smith Post author

            Mercouris says the naval base is of not great consequence, more a refueling station. The airbase is more important but again not existential, more about power projection.

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            1. Revenant

              It’s Russia’s only warm water base not trapped behind the Bosphorus and Montreux Agreement. The Baltic is a NATO lake. Vladivostok is not entirely ice-free, apparently, and a long way from EMEA. I don’t think it is inconsequential at all!

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              1. Yves Smith Post author

                Russia is not acting like it is existential or even important. They are not rushing to send lots of support to Syria. See Kouros below, they are actually REMOVING equipment.

                I think they are fully capable of judging their interests.

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                1. PlutoniumKun

                  Russia is dismantling its base for the same reason the US dismantled its bases in Afghanistan and Iraq. Because it lost.

                  Access to the Mediterranean has always been a strategic objective of Russian and Soviet doctrine, they’ve fought many wars over the centuries for it. This is precisely why the Crimea is so strategically important to Russia throughout history – because it is a gateway to the Black Sea and Mediterranean. Maintaining an access to the Black Sea is only a partial victory if the Mediterranean is out of bounds. This is precisely why Turkey has always, even at its weakest, been able to maintain its leverage over Russia.

                  Tartus had relatively little importance not because Russia didn’t value it, but because without other bases it was nothing more than a fingernail grip on the Med. The vast resources (and they were vast, maintaining a war fighting machine so far from home is always cripplingly expensive) Russia poured into Syria shows just how important it was to them. And it was not just about Tartus – Syria was Russia’s means of maintaining a role in the Middle East as a whole.

                  So while this region is certainly not an existential strategic matter for Russia, it is unquestionably a serious strategic setback. It not the first – its betrayal of its former ally Armenia was also clearly seen by many in the region (including, most notably, Iran), as a sign of weakness. This is a region where you should never, ever show weakness if you want to survive.

                  Russia’s monofocus on winning in Ukraine is stretching it – there is always a price to be paid for it. The price may well be worth it (and I think, from Moscows perspective, it is), but to ignore its failures and weaknesses elsewhere will blind everyone to the way the world is reorganising itself.

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                  1. Daniil Adamov

                    At the very least, it’s a huge wasted investment. That said, while it’s true that getting to the Mediterranean is a very long-time obsession here, I’m not sure that having a base there is particularly worth it unless we actually take direct control of Istanbul – and that’s not happening any time soon. Otherwise any hold we have there would be at Turkey’s mercy, and Turkey would exploit this under practically any government. Without Istanbul, having a Mediterranean base is vital to a strategy that doesn’t really make much sense to me.

                    I think the main thing Syria actually gave us was some regional leverage. We could pressure our “partners” from Syria or agree not to pressure them in exchange for concessions elsewhere. That seems like a questionable return for the investment, but it’s something. If Assad is replaced with a hostile regime we can’t bring around to our side, though, any continued presence there becomes a near-pure liability.

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          2. Kouros

            Big Serge posted on his X a clip with Russians removing their S-400 etc. from Khomeinim air base. First time they helped because Syrians were willing to fight. This time it doesn’t seem to be the case, for many reasons. So Russians will not fight for Assad’s government. But are making clearer and clearer that that is not the case in the stuggle for a neutral Ukraine. And that will be a strategic defeat for US and EU.

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            1. Expat2uruguay

              I don’t know, I don’t think that brics, and this includes Iran China Russia and even Turky can afford to lose Syria to the West. They may not be able to stand up their resistance in the next year, but I think that the
              road to the Future multipolar
              includes Syria.

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              1. Yves Smith Post author

                They cannot hold Syria if the SAA won’t do some heavy lifting.

                Alexander Mercouris reported on Sat that there is a lot of disgust in Russia over the Syrian performance. Ordinary Russians fought in Leningrad for nearly 900 days. A million died of starvation. The Donbass militias fought for 8 years. Why should Russia and Iran fight for people who run away?

                BRICS is just a talking shop, not a military alliance. China will do nothing to help here.

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    2. NN Cassandra

      Main Sunni leaders may be fine with genocide of Palestinians, but is the same true for larger Sunni population? After all even the dictators have to publicly pretend they are against it. Also AFAIK Hamas aren’t Shia but Muslim Brotherhood/Sunni, they were fighting alongside the “rebels” in Syrian and against Assad/Iran/Hizbullah. So I’m not sure trading Assad for Palestinians will be regarded as great deal, especially should Assad vanish in month, while Palestinians will limp on for years even in the worst case.

      This scenario where Israel captures more territories to create its Greater Israel, what it doesn’t want (at least at the moment) will be governed by Western/Israeli puppet dictators/jihadists and everyone, first and foremost the people living under said puppets, will be fine with it, seems like the ultimate wet dream of all the neocons/zionists, which they weren’t able to manufacture after decades of trying. And now it should materialize in matter of weeks? I’m skeptical.

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      1. Expat2uruguay

        It may be the case of the Zionist dog that caught the Greater Israel car. They won’t be able to manage it, to hold it.

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      2. Matthew

        “First gradually, then suddenly.” I’m afraid that this looks horribly bleak. All lip service to anything like democracy long gone.

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    3. Polar Socialist

      Israel can’t tolerate another regional power as far away as Iran is, so what makes Erdogan to calculate Israel would tolerate two much closer regional powers? That’s about as short-sighted as Zelensky rejecting peace in 2022…

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      1. PlutoniumKun

        It’s not clear to me that Israel has ever seen Iran in itself as a strategic threat. It is a sworn enemy because the one opponent Israel has feared in recent decades (since it neutralised the PLO) is Hizbollah. The other ‘issues’ Israel has with Iran is tied into its ideological pairing with the neocons. If Hizbollah were to disappear I doubt Tel Aviv would give any more thought to Tehran than any other power in the region.

        Ultimately, all the major regional powers in the area want their home territory secured and a buffer of controllable statelets. its the misfortune of the Palestinians, Druze, Kurds, Christians etc that they are the pawns in this game.

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        1. Yves Smith Post author

          Lordie, how many Israel-loyal Jews do you know?

          I lost friends in NYC who, when we ran out of banter, only talk only about what a terrible threat to Israel, and then at length. That Iran was back in the 1990s and 2000s. They dropped me eventually after getting only stony silence and not affirmation. They brought it up often, unprompted, and never talked about Hezbollah save in passing as an Iran tool.

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          1. Emma

            I know my share of American Zionist Jews and they’re completely ignorant about Israel. They cling to a lizard brain attachment to Israel as a place of safety and are useful for manipulating the American political system, but not particularly useful for understanding Israel’s views about their regional position.

            Hezbollah is not mentioned because it’s inconvenient to talk to ostensibly liberal American Jews about an anti-colonial local liberation movements in a country that Israel invaded and occupied for years. Better to paint them as Iranian proxies and rob them of any agency.

            Iran is easy to use as a boogie man for American Jews because there’s already so much demonization of Iranians amongst the entire American population.

            But Israel has no problem buying Iranian oil cheaply under Mark Rich’s company. It collaborated closely with the Shah prior to the revolution. From my readings in the past year, I see individual Israelis focus on Hezbollah and Hamas, while having only vague understanding about Iran, Syria, and Yemen. I don’t think Israel hates Iran anymore than other countries in the region, it’s simply the most consistent and powerful supporter of anti-Zionist forces in the region right now.

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            1. Yves Smith Post author

              Don’t make assumptions. One of my friends who was Israel-loyal had 30 cousins in Israel, including one in the Knesset, at least a couple of others profs at unis, and visited once a year pretty much her entire life.

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              1. Emma

                The people I know have made trips to Israel and have family there. Nonetheless they seem very ignorant of the situation in Israel. They’re genuinely nice people but they repeat the US MSM line on Israel/Iran/Russia/China.

                Maybe I’m wrong in my perceptions and they’re more evil than ignorant.
                The last week, just as the last year, the last four years, has made me question a lot about what I thought I knew about the world.

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                1. Yves Smith Post author

                  You have shifted the grounds of your argument, which is a bad faith strategy.

                  Your original claim was American Jews who are pro-Israel and anti-Iran are ignorant. I pointed out my contacts are VERY aware of conditions in Israel, including talking to their politically prominent relatives and after the Internet made it easy, reading the Israel press, not daily but at least a couple of times a week. (the other colleague is not quite as connected in but similarly makes an effort to keep informed via Israel news sources).

                  Israelis DO regard Iran as a threat. Period. You keep trying to support a contention you can’t back up.

                  When in a hole, stop digging.

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            2. Matthew

              Dealing with the Shah, it’s probably worth reminding ourselves–and a country in both literal and figurative subjection–was pretty different from an Iran that reshaped itself in reaction to the US/Israel axis in the region. My Jewish friends are split between a suburban cohort who even now back Israel reflexively, all the while shaking their heads–racist in the manner of a lot of low-info liberals, sure that Hamas and Hezbollah are the real problem, and Ivy’d up NJ and NY friends convinced that the very cynical approach that Israel has long taken is necessary. The hatred of Iran is more intense on the latter side, but almost no on has much idea about the CIA and how these things came to pass.

              When I look back and think that Israel was training and arming dictatorships (along with the NYPD) going back decades. . . I regret that many, many of us just gave that country a pass. My mom grew up in Nazi Germany–with relatives who worked in the camps and a Jewish uncle who I was close to. The idea of the Jews as virtuous people of the book, etc. was drilled into me deeply.

              Yes, it was a kind of liberal/identitarian cant, of a most compelling kind! We are hopelessly lost in same in this country, all part of the miserable knot of a historically and morally spent liberalism that we don’t seem to be able to shrug off.
              When I receive reminders about Holocaust remembrance nowadays, I can’t help wonder: Never again. . . but just for Jewish people? Who paid for this mailing?

              I think you’re talking about different groups of people in the end, though, a kind of pretty feckless, largely assimilated Jewish person whose numbers are extensive and whose kids ask questions, and a much more cynical group of the upper East Coast establishment (some of whom live on the left coast), who applaud Israeli regional dominance and now want the job finished properly. (Watch a film like Israelism and you get to see how an almost casual fascism is inculcated.) Whitney Webb’s One Nation Under Blackmail, which really needs to be got out in a more careful, scholarly edition so that it is taken seriously like it should be, offers a pretty good idea about how we got here. . . the Mark Richs and Jeffrey Epsteins, their wealthy WASP and Jewish Mafia antecedents included.

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          2. PlutoniumKun

            I don’t doubt they mutually hate each other, but this is mostly a recent thing and isn’t related to historical rivalry. Israels early wars were all against its arabic neighbours, not Iran. Even after the revolution, Israel was, if anything, more on Iran than Iraq’s side. I suspect the deeper origin of zionists hatred of post revolution Iran is that it is the one traditional regional power that has refused to back down. There is nothing a bully hates more than the guy who refuses to acknowledge them.

            In strategic terms, neither have a particular beef with each other. Irans interest in the Levant is in not having an enemy on its border there (whether that enemy be the west, Israel, Turkey, or a sunni or secular enemy. Secondarily, they would value Mediterranean access, but thats more a strategic desire than a strategic need.

            From Israels point of view, it wants its Greater Israel, and it wants weakened, subdued states on its boundaries that don’t provide a threat. It nearly achieved that with Lebanon until Hizbollah came to the scene. It may be about to achieve this with Syria.

            But in any regional great power game, Israel and Iran are just not direct rivals – their spheres of influence only partially overlap and they are not rivals over some existentially important feature, like water supply or ocean access or mineral reserves.

            Unfortunately for Assad and Hizbollah, they may find that they are just not existentially important to either Iran nor Russia.

            If things pan out the way they are going, the only thing that will save the Palestinians will be an Israeli economic or political collapse. That’s not impossible, but its not something to bet your future on.

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        2. Ignacio

          I think there is a contradiction between your first and second paragraph. If it is just misfortune for Palestinians, Kurds etc. to be inhabiting there, as pawns between and or within the regional geostrategic “titans”, then it is quite likely that Israel sees Iran as an strategic threat and for exactly that reason needs expansion. Unfortunately for them, in the view of Israel, Palestinians are less that pawns, even less than cockroaches.

          Yet, the consideration of all those groups as mere expendable “pawns” well… i really dislike that. It is too close to justification of whatever means for the Grand Strategic Goals.

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          1. Daniil Adamov

            “Yet, the consideration of all those groups as mere expendable “pawns” well… i really dislike that. It is too close to justification of whatever means for the Grand Strategic Goals.”

            Unfortunately, I’m pretty sure that is how most governments involved see everyone in the Middle East… At least, I’m seeing very little that would prove otherwise. (Israel aside; I agree that Israel’s views of Palestinians is different and for the worse.)

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          2. PlutoniumKun

            The status of these groups depends entirely on where you are located within the region. They are pawns to the big powers if they feel they can manipulate them. They are irritants if they can’t. They are allies if they have similar interests to you (the entire Assad power base was the mix of ethnic/religious groups of similar size to the Alawites who feared Sunni domination). It’s simply the nature of the region. History/geography has not gifted the region a single unifying feature (like big navigable rivers), or a unifying religion/ethnicity, or some other historical accident that gives it safe and stable internal and external boundaries.

            Big stable countries/empires (or indeed, small, stable ones) are an historical and geographical anomaly. Those of use lucky to live in one sometimes struggle to understand the perspective of those who don’t. For those who do, and have the misfortune to be part of a minority within one of those geographical areas, then your existence depends on a complex series of multidimensional judgements on who you pick as allies, who you choose to fight, and if needed, who’s imperialism you accept with the most grace you can muster.

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        3. Kouros

          The Islamic Republic, in its manifestation, is an abomination for Israel. It is quasi-democratic, is potentially rich, technologically competent and an example for all the neighbours ruled by absolute monarchs and military dictatorships. Iraq is occupied and forever blackmailed with the oil money kept as ransom by the US. If Algeria or Indonesia would be much closer, these countries would also be considered a threat by Israel.

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      2. ArvidMartensen

        The Israelis at the end of the day are useful idiots for US financial interests. The US is making sure that all of the oil in the Mid East will be under their control. Using the blood of Israelis to fight looks a lot like using Ukrainian blood to fight. And the Turks too?

        Plan A was to get Russian oil, gas and minerals by taking out Ukraine and then balkanizing Russia. Not going so well.
        So we are now onto Plan B. Balkanize the rest of the Middle East to take the petrochemicals. Access to oil and gas is now becoming critical.
        No hard feelings guys, this is just business.

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      3. Daniil Adamov

        Despite occasional interruptions, Turkey has been an important trade partner for Israel. Still is, though there seem to be more serious attempts at disentanglement now. Even if trade ties go away entirely, which I doubt, Turkey’s position in the Mediterranean gives it a lot more leverage over Israel than Iran. I’d argue the Houthis have been the most successful of Israel’s enemies in recent years because they disrupted Red Sea trade, but the Turks could do worse in the Mediterranean, if they wanted (and were willing to take risks vis-a-vis the US, which I would not count out). I think Israel will have no choice but to tolerate Turkey… especially if they can cooperate against common enemies.

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    4. The Rev Kev

      If a Caliphate 2.0 arises in Syria and then eventually Iraq, how long will it be until the leaders of that Caliphate decide that the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states do not follow the true version of Allah – namely theirs – that they need to be replaced by some of their own while Turkiye are infidels who need to be brought to their knees. These Al-Qaeda wannabes also have their own long term strategic aims and their own notional sphere of influence which is basically the entire Middle east, even if they form a long-term pact with Israel to get their way.

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      1. Emma

        I’m sure the Kurds tell themselves that every morning, but how’s that working out?

        These forces all think of themselves as independent agents making a temporary alliance with the devil to get power and then institute the caliphate. But they’re never going to establish the kind of connection with the masses or local elites to be able to ween themselves off of US/Israel/Turkic support.

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          1. ArvidMartensen

            The US gave up their occupation. They didn’t run away because of defeat. Afghanistan was no longer useful in their game of rule the world.
            So all those ‘poor women under the Taliban rule’ and ‘democracy’ were dropped in the bin like you drop a used wrapper.

            The USA left to start wars in other regions. Ukraine. Gaza/Lebanon/Syria/Iran. They are fighting for oil, gas and rare earths to enjoy the benefits of Democracy.

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      1. Emma

        The only evidence that Hamas has abandoned their alliance within the AoR is an ex-member living in Turkey.

        Palestinians directly paid by Turkey, Qatar, or other Gulf Arab despots do not speak for Hamas.

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    6. Kouros

      The problem with Syria is that it has little or no abassyia left. The decade long sanctions and crippling occupation of eastern Syria oil fields and wheat producing areas have collapsed the population, while bribery of key people and key military by all opposing forces, plus Assad’s own mistake of not negotiating with Erdogan have created this situation. Very sad.

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      1. ambrit

        The problem as I read it is that “negotiating” with Erdogan is complicated by the fact that Erdogan considers himself as the New Ottoman Sultan, before whom all must kneel and make praise. Assad, despite his faults, is not one to become the Wali of the vilayet of Neo-Ottoman Syria.
        As mentioned above, Syria has shown that a secular Arab state can be created and thrive. This is anathema to fundamentalist Islam.
        See “Wahhabism”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahhabism

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        1. The Rev Kev

          I wonder how long it will be before the Caliphate decides to blow up pre-Arab ruins like the Roman ones at Palmyra.

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          1. hk

            Or, the infidels occupying Syrian lands? If the Jihadis do actually set up a real Caliphate in Damascus, they become a challenge to both Israel and US, at least (since they are both infidels.) In a way, their victory, assuming it holds, may well be Assad’s last F U to the Israelis and West. That is, if the Jihadis don’t turn out to be too obvious puppets (I doubt they can if they were to have any credibility going forward.)

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            1. Emma

              Half of them are Wahabi headchopping psychos from other countries. Corrupt brutal minorities alienated from the local population is exactly how Usrael likes its mercenary puppets.

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      2. Young

        Soon, Erdogan will move the capital from Ankara to Damascus, start Recebi dynasty and installs himself as Tayyip the 1st ;-))

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  3. Emma

    Sleboda’s logic for the long grind in Ukraine is that he thinks there’s no other way than a hard slog, whereas it’s pretty clear Russia is taking the slow approach because it wants to grind the Ukrainian military to dust and maximize its post-war options. Sleboda talks a good game but he doesn’t know Syria (or frankly the fine details of Ukraine) all that well.

    Agree that things don’t look good right now in Syria but there’s also a lot of psyops let loose into the atmosphere, and anything from Turkish or Qataris media is completely unreliable. What we’re seeing isn’t that different from narratives about various “successful” Ukrainian offensives against Russia.

    But Iran and Russia better make their moves soon and pick a side, if they want to stick around in the Levant and get anybody else to trust them as an ally against the West. They have plenty of cards they can play and they need to stop pretending to themselves that they can negotiate a peace with the West.

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    1. Yves Smith Post author

      I do not agree. By all accounts (and this includes from Russia friendlies, as in reflecting reports in Russia, which has its own information channels), the Syrian Army has vanished. It is not putting up a fight. Russia and Iran can’t carry a war there on their own.

      I also beg to differ re your take on Sleboda. He repeatedly looked at the pace of fighting and the balance of forces. He has no information advantage (save being in Russia) yet was the only one to say among YouTubers with something of a following that the war would extend well into 2025. I tended to discount him as being a gloomy Gus and I was completely wrong. He also knows well Russia’s long-standing historical preference for attrition, so please don’t depict him as not being aware.

      All sort of Russia supporters have pointed out that the Ukrainians have been putting up a very hard fight. Even people like Ritter who would say that were depicting a collapse as of August- Sept 2024. We aren’t close to that.

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      1. Emma

        Nobody I read so far is denying that the Syrian Army has been greatly weakened by years of sanctions and low intensity conflict. They (and Iranian and Russian intelligence) clearly messed up big time by withdrawing Iranian troops and putting green recruits in the area, and ignored a clear sign of build up of Takfiri forces.

        But given the bad hand that they had at the start of this week, they appear to have withdrawn their forces to Homs in good order and it sounds like it may be the best position to make a strong stand against the HTS. This is a rational decision, better to give up land than men. I wouldn’t assume that the SAA is a completely spent force based on their tactical withdrawals so far.

        Maybe things on the ground are that desperate and Russia is ready to sell out Syria and Hezbollah, but the infospace is currently dominated Qataris and Turkish media and all the sudden rush of “free Syria” accounts. The psy-op is to despirit the Syrian government forces and provide the conditions for Erdogan to get as much of his neo-Ottoman empire back as he can get away with. No point in declaring a loss when the big battle is still ahead and Russia, Iran, and even Hezbollah still have plenty of unplayed cards, in addition to whatever Syria might be able to do in Homs or even outside Damascus. If Russia thinks it can forever get away with not directly engaging the Turks or Israelis, then Syria will have been lost because of them, not whatever Syria and Hezbollah could or could not have done by themselves.

        As for predictions on Russia/Ukraine. Most of the English language commentators have been bad because they focus on what’s happening on a map and not the big picture strategic vision. So they see superb Russian military capabilities and extrapolate a quick win as American forces would do. But Russia is putting in a slow grind because it destroys Ukrainian military capacity and NATO military reserves, and the slow frog boil overall reduces the chances for a dramatic escalation.

        Sleboda is admittedly ahead of most pundits, since he predicted a prolonged war. But he does so based on the faulty logic that a Western backed Ukraine can continue on for many years. I think it’s pretty clear that they’re currently on the demographics and economic conditions of March 1945 Germany. It’ll probably grind on for a few months, unless the winter gets too cold. No amount of sheepdipped Polish soldiers is going to get around the lack of trained manpower or any manpower on one side, and the overwhelming amount of trained and fully equipped military power on the other side.

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        1. Mikel

          “As for predictions on Russia/Ukraine. Most of the English language commentators have been bad because they focus on what’s happening on a map and not the big picture strategic vision. So they see superb Russian military capabilities and extrapolate a quick win as American forces would do. But Russia is putting in a slow grind because it destroys Ukrainian military capacity and NATO military reserves, and the slow frog boil overall reduces the chances for a dramatic escalation.”

          I see some of the same views taken with predictions about what is happening with the conflict between Israel and the resistance. Because Israel hasn’t done a quick win, there’s lots of commentary that they are on the ropes.

          Israel still has committed allies. Although they have social and political tensions that are par for the course these days (for countries all over the world), Israel is still a functioning country. Don’t have to agree on the way it functions, but it is functioning.

          Until that changes, the trajectory of the conflict won’t change in a major way.

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        2. Yves Smith Post author

          You are straw manning Sleboda, He said a few months back that the estimated from General Staff types were that Ukraine could raise another 100,000 ish men for each year they dropped the conscription age. So they figure another 200,000-300,000 additions before all is over. That is what drives this to not getting done soon.

          Sleboda also has more appreciation of what it actually takes to win and occupy a city. Russia has yet to take a city even as large as 1 million. Khariv, which it pretty much has to take, is 2 million and sprawling. Zaporzhizhia is IIRC close to 800,000.

          I have not heard anyone say the Syrian army retreated in good order, anywhere. Please provide a link. I have seen PLENTY otherwise from Russia-friendly sources, and remember Russia does have operations there.

          They did not fight at all. There were claims they were setting up defenses before Hama and nothing like that happened.

          In keeping, Assad has been absent. Russian officials have pointedly not been mentioning his name. He has not even given a single speech to the nation. What does that tell you???

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          1. Emma

            Well, in light of what happened in the last 24 hours, I have to admit that Sleboda called it. This is a massive, maybe crushing defeat for AoR and coming so fast that Russia and Iran had no choice but to cut their losses.

            Heaven save the peoples of the Levant, especially the fools actually celebrating the situation today.

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        3. Kouros

          “So they see superb Russian military capabilities and extrapolate a quick win as American forces would do. ”

          American forces would do against subpar, non-cohesive armies and polities. In 2022, with some Western support, Ukraine likely had the biggest and meanest army in Europe, probably on the par with Turkey. I would like to see US fight a peer, how fast they would move… 25,000 dead per week? In three weeks Americans would have more dead than the 15 years war in Vietnam…

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      2. Polar Socialist

        The best analysis I’m reading from Russian media (vz.ru), is that Syrian event clearly demonstrate that with The West, ceasefire and “frozen conflicts” actually don’t work. Those are not aimed to build peace, but to get a breather for the next round of violence.

        From the same sources, and elsewhere it seems that SAA is pulling back not just because it’s weak , corrupted and was surprised, but also because it’s concentrating it’s forces for the battle of Homs. They can’t venture too far in the north, because there are still insurgents and Israel in the south, so they have to exchange space for time – totally opposite for what Ukrainians are doing.

        It seems that SAA did not flee without actually disabling the equipment they had to leave behind – so it was more organised than appears. Also, the Iraqi militias and Hezbollah units are reportedly moving into Syria to help SAA, so they seem to think SAA will fight.

        If the “decisive” battle is fought around Homs, it’s about the most advantageous location SAA can hope for – close to it’s support space, while the “diversity friendly opposition” forces are stretched on a much bigger area than they expected and outside of the direct support of the Turkish Armed Forces.

        And should the SAA prevail in that battle, I think Russia and Iran will help them to drive all the way to Idlib this time.

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        1. hamstak

          Speaking of Iran, they still haven’t delivered on a suggested (if not promised) retaliation for the abortive Israeli attack several weeks ago. This may be wishful thinking, but I wondered if Iran could not use another missile/drone attack as cover for a support/supply mission to Syria.

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          1. Emma

            Yeah. Strategic patience is one thing, but at some point they need to recognize that this is an existential fight.

            But then I’m not responsible for the welfare of 90 million people and doing the clean up on the day after.

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            1. ambrit

              Any attack on Israel will be “spun” by the West as being ‘unprovoked.’
              Iran must be playing a long game here.
              Also, Iran’s last demonstration of missile ability was intended to bring the Israelis “to their senses.” This event did not happen. Israel showed that it is not being governed by reason. So, Iran might be considering that their next strategic move might have to be a “knockout punch” to Israel.

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        2. Yves Smith Post author

          This is existential for Hezbollah, so I would not take their participation as a sign that they believe in the SAA, but they have no choice but to bet on them.

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      3. NotThePilot

        This is sort of a reply to PlutoniumKun above too, but while this doesn’t look good at all, there’s also a “dog that didn’t bark” element to the Syrian Army clearly not standing their ground, even by their own admission. I don’t like theories that assume anyone is playing 5-D chess, but I still don’t think the uncontrolled rout interpretation makes sense either. I will abide in studied cluelessness for now.

        A collapse is the simplest explanation from the priors (more instinctive than conscious) that everyone can still be either threatened or bribed by NATO, Israel, Turkey, etc. And it’s always possible that the US and/or Trump’s people are making wildly bigger offers / threats than ever before.

        But it just doesn’t add up in my mind, particular in regards to the Gulf States. They have to play a bit of a double-game; for example, can we really expect Qatar to tell the US Air Force unilaterally that they have to leave al-Udeid? But their leaders aren’t dumb, and they can see the writing on the wall for anyone that doubles-down on aligning with NATO. They also know first-hand how little promises from the US (especially Trump) are worth.

        At the same time, all of the strategic momentum is towards realignment. The theory that the entire Sunni world is suddenly ganging up on Syria just doesn’t add up, unless you’re willing to believe they’ve:
        A. accepted a place under the US, and then Europe + Israel, for the next several generations
        B. similar to Craig Murray (and more plausible) are collaborating with the Western bloc, more as equals, to fight the Shia and engineer a Sunni emirate in Syria.

        Even for the B case though, you have to assume the Sunni states are
        1. willing to burn their goodwill with Russia, Iran, and friends
        2. recommitting to Sunni supremacy as a raison d’etat when even the Taliban is choosing pragmatism
        3. as price of admission, throwing the Palestinians under the bus for the whole world to see

        Anything’s possible, but it still doesn’t add up in my mind.

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        1. Yves Smith Post author

          The current theory is:

          Considerable economic contraction post 2019 due to sanctions and Covid led to great corruption and in particular payoffs to Syrian Army members. Also after the war, the own goal of easing out seasoned officers and replacing them with hacks.

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          1. pjay

            Kevork Almassian, whose views I respect, has been making points similar to this. As with commentators above like Emma and Polar Socialist, he acknowledges that Russia and Iran still have cards to play. But he argues that they had better play them quickly, and if Homs is lost then it’s game over. In terms of the SAA’s willingness or capacity to fight, he sounds somewhat uncertain. I won’t pretend to know the actual situation. But with Sleboda, I do think that recent events should give us pause before accepting the constant cheerleading of some internet commentators.

            So many moving parts, each with their own sets of material or ideological interests. And so much suffering by the people of the region.

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          3. JohnnyGL

            I’m finding it hard to believe that this very same army, less than a decade ago, was in a long grinding fight that it mostly won. They seemed very motivated to prevent the transformation of their country into a Libyan-style hell-hole. Now, suddenly, it looks like the US-trained Afghan or Iraqi army, mostly in it for the steady salary, suddenly afraid of a confrontation.

            I will certainly say, this jihadi offensive looks highly coordinated. Not only are the jihadis far better trained and equipped, but the US-backed SDF grabbing control of the Iraqi-Syrian border might mean that reinforcements are cut-off. Also, with ‘rebels’ suddenly appearing in the south, near the Jordanian border, was Jordan involved, too?

            Time is certainly on the Syrian government’s side. If they can hang in there a bit longer, help will likely arrive. If they call stall momentum of the jihadis, the jihadis might turn on each other. Or the Turkish proxies might pivot against the Kurds.

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      4. Kouros

        I think another point about Russia’s perceived slow slog is what I believe, the absolute reluctance of Russian high command to loose men. So everything is geared to minimizing Russian casulaties, while achieving the military objectives on the frontlines. And troops are given lots of tactical initiative, that is clear. This doesn’t mean there are no bad/stupid/incompetent comanders and soldiers.

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    2. ChrisFromGA

      The long, slow grind also deprives the West of one of its favorite tricks—the fake ceasefire, followed by Treachery.

      See: Minsk agreements.

      By keeping steady pressure with no relenting, the West has to keep pumping fiat and material into Ukraine, with increasingly destabilizing effects (mainly in Europe, for the time being.)

      Note that there is a lot of noise in the press about a “deal” with Trump being the latest hope, but I don’t think Russia will stop until they achieve their goals in Ukraine.

      Ultimately I predict this will be self-defeating for the West, because creating fake news stories about Putin wanting peace has zero effect on the ground.

      I detect an epic media melt-down in February when it becomes apparent that Trump will be powerless to do anything to stop Russia.

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      1. Emma

        The westoids are normalizing and minimizing nuclear war. So Donald Trump is only powerless if he doesn’t want to blow up the World. I’m not optimistic given his cabinet picks.

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        1. ChrisFromGA

          Trump will back down as he’s a businessman at heart. You can’t do a real estate deal when the site is contaminated with radiation with a half-life of 1000 years.

          His cabinet picks are troubling, except for Tulsi, RFK Jr, and the Pentagon guy. Ultimately they’re going to run up against reality. If someone miscalculates and pushes us to nuclear war, we’re all dead so it is sort of academic.

          Remember that Musk is there too, and he’s another pragmatist who just wants to make money and see tech-topia.

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          1. Emma

            Trump doesn’t really do real estate. He does the Trump brand. While irradiated land is harder to market, stolen land is free so he can make it work.

            Tulsi is a chameleon. She might be able to play the long game and guide Trump onto the right path, but her odds are pretty bad given the stare of Trump’s picks.

            RFK Jr. is an Israeli plant. I lost enthusiasm for him even before he became best friends with Schumuly Boteach. He has one good speech with a lot of Camelot nostalgia and he kept repeating it. He doesn’t have the grasp of details or true understanding of the system to make any changes. He’ll end up getting guided into making bad changes that benefit the moneyed class, hidden under some kind of “freedom”.

            What Pentagon guy? Pete Hegseth? Seen his crusader cross tats and him opinionating on anything?

            Ditto Elon. What sort of reality does the cybertruck come from again? Plus Tesla is an over hyped company building crappy deadly cars, and a bunch of much better competitors just came into the market (not just the Chinese ones but other carmakers who belatedly realized that automation and EV are life and death issues for their companies). Methinks Elon is just looking for his next grift, probably in poorly implemented AI.

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            1. mrsyk

              RFK Jr. is an Israeli plant., Lol, very few of our policy makers are not, thanks to AIPAC, Epstein and I’m sure many others. “Loose cannons” seems to be a common theme. For me, the potential upside of team trump could be described as exercising prosecution futures, but sadly, not winding down wars.

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                  1. Wukchumni

                    RFK Jr is the perfect Jerusalem Artichoke, as the plant has nothing to do with Jerusalem and isn’t an artichoke.

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                    2. Wukchumni

                      I hear ya, once I consumed so many that I kept getting cold calls at all hours from OPEC, wanting to take me on as a client nation.

                    3. gk

                      I think it’s a form of sunflower, hence girasole. Corrupted by non-Italian settlers into Jerusalem.

                      Interestingly, cimaroli, used in carciofi alla Giudia, are not only not known in Israel, but were recently declared by the Israeli rabbinate to be non-kosher. The Milanese rabbinate (essentially a branch of the Israeli Explanation Ministry) promptly banned them, while the Romans told the Israelis to go to hell.

                    4. Neutrino

                      In 1979-80 foreigners drank Ayatollah Cola. It gave gas to everyone except Americans. Not sure how it would pair with those artichokes. /s

                2. Joe Renter

                  Did you see the headline the other day?
                  “Artie choked 7 for a dollar”.
                  A joked my girlfriend told me 42 years ago, which when I told her the joke not long ago, she never remembered telling it.

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              2. Emma

                I mean more than usual. Usually people other than Marco Rubio and Richie Torres at least start out as not as obviously only there because of Israel. But if you check the background of Amaryllis Fox and others funding his campaign, it’s an obvious op from certain very Zionist parts of the deep state.

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            2. Yves Smith Post author

              You really need to stop these “Making Shit Up” comments. Look at Trump’s list of assets from the Forbes 500. His wealth is in real estate, not licensing. He and Steve Ross were the only major NYC developers not to have to give up equity to banks in the big downturn in the early 1990s. People were shocked at how little he agreed to take for The Apprentice.

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              1. Emma

                My understanding is that Trump’s real estate deals are fairly opaque and it’s hard to assess his actual ownership stakes versus him being the frontman for the assets listed under his name. I think it’s also not unreasonable to say that his real estate assets are also based on the Trump brand that he plasters on everything he touches. When people use or buy a Trump property, they do it because it’s associated with Trump. That’s his business model.

                Reply ↓
                1. Yves Smith Post author

                  No. that is false. This is more Making Shit Up. He was for decades a major NYC developer. Once you get a building done, you have solid cash flow unless you screw it up. As I said, I have very good contacts among NYC developer and they know the bankers who have helped develop Trump properties and worked on the early 1990s restructuring which left him retaining his EQUITY. There were no other parties to these very protracted talks.

                  During them, Trump said he would remove his name if the banks didn’t cut him enough slack. He could not even have been negotiating with banks, let alone be able to threaten to remove his name, had he been a licensor.

                  The Forbes 400 list also shows many of his properties as owned outright and not even leveraged.

                  FFS, he would not have been able to take his controversial enormous tax break, which a top tax attorney friend was the first to work out and write up, had he been a mere licensor.

                  Again you need to stop Making Shit Up, I have warned you 2x on one threat. The rules here is you need to provide links to substantiate your claims if they are either controversial or contested (ideally even more often but this is a basic). You never do so. You are on the way to losing your commenting privileges if you do not shape up.

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    3. Es s Ce Tera

      The headlines become “US, Israel and Turkey annex Syria, Israel annexes Lebanon.” Perhaps “US, Turkey and Israel split Syria/Lebanon per prior secret agreement”, a modern-day Ribbentrop pact. The US, Israel and Turkey thus gloat over their new prizes, ravage for resources per SOP, set up rivers of profit back to the homelands. Turkey now turns its focus to genociding the Kurds. Now we have a genocide of Gazans and Kurds, ethnic cleansing of Palestinians (and all forms of Islam and Arabism), all at the hands of the collective west with the world as witness. Now Turkey administers Syria as a puppet, Israel administers Lebanon as a puppet, brutal suppression of Sunni’s and non-Jews follow. How, at the end of this, does the world view Israel, Turkey and the US? As peacemakers? Conquisitors? And how does the world look upon China and Russia? And does that matter?

      Reply ↓
  4. The Rev Kev

    “The tragedy of Michel Barnier”

    It’s not a tragedy – it’s a farce. It was Macron who chose Barnier when the left were expecting one of them to be selected because of their help to Macron in the elections but he screwed them over. But this article never mentions the left and only ever talks about and blames the far right and labels them as an extremist party i.e. Marine le Penn whom they helpfully have an image of in this article. What happened was that National Rally gave him enough rope and he proceeded to hang himself by trying to put the budget through the back door and make the Parliament irrelevant. Not a great plan. Both the left and right came together to dump him before he tried to do something even more outrageous. He was suppose to be this great negotiator but even this article admits that such was not the case. He may have finished his career with his reputation as a good negotiator intact if he had retired but now people will only remember him as Macron’s goon who tried dirty tactics in parliament.

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  6. LawnDart

    Re; United Healthcare

    The denial of care appears to permeate their entire corporate culture, from shareholders to CEO, call centers to agent/brokers, and so forth.

    Yeah, if it was “our” government we’d have some protection from these psychopaths, however…

    They are psychopaths– not hyperbole. I know this from first-hand, very-recent, direct and personal experience.

    Have I ever got a story for you…

    Reply ↓
    1. griffen

      That comment and the above tweet makes me think or consider some of the reporting based roles I’ve held in consumer finance companies….”gotta pulse and that handy FICO for you alone or you and a ppartner spouse that reaches above 200, you’re approved!”…

      It’s not hyperbole when it’s an actual and verified truth about America in 2024. You can’t win if you don’t play, but the rules are much different if you’re drastically poor or spend life on those thin lines between economic success or failure.

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      1. LawnDart

        Is “winning” making a decent living, or is it getting rich, richer, and richer still?

        I know good and talented people who became rich, although this was not the goal in itself. These are folks who “do the right thing” by others; they are moral and ethical individuals– not social predators, or parasites.

        Having known predators and parasites as well, while some are of little talent and of more ego than intelligence, I am often most dismayed by those who could be “successful” in life without any need to screw people over, though perhaps preying on others stems from a compulsion, competetive drive, or a need to feed their egos– dunno.

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        1. griffen

          My mere suggestion, winning seems to be accomplishing both professional and personal goals while, say running a small business from the ground up, or holding a life long position in one’s chosen line of work. All while balancing against demands required to be a decent parent, spouse or partner. Once upon a time we had rules that American companies and their executive leadership / board members needed to follow lest they be thrown in jail. Alas the heady days of finance executives serving decent time seems dated and out of style since the S&L debacle or the Enron or WorldCom fraud fiascos.

          I’d tend to think that all changed after the GFC and in the aftermath of the period, careful application of the Holder doctrine, and while I’ve studied or read much about this country and a history of “free markets” and laissez fraire capitalism I don’t possess a conclusive set of answers.

          A frequent commenter here uses the descriptive term of Inverted Totalitarianism(?) I think to describe our modern capitalists economy…Capital is winning as none other than Warren Buffett likes to remind.

          Reply ↓
          1. fringe element

            Thanks for this beautiful link.

            One of the delights of aging is discovering all the wonderful things I was “protected” from discovering when I was young. Absolutely looking forward to listening to more tunes from beautiful Malvina.

            Reply ↓
    2. Socal Rhino

      I think the HMO business model (revenue per head rather than by service provided) will always lead to these outcomes. Revenue is locked in up front, profit is driven by minimizing expenses. Luring seniors away from Medicare to Medicare Advantage is part of it, as is denial of payment. Psychopathic HMO organizations outperform others.

      One of the best things the DOGE dudes could accomplish for American competitiveness would be to remove non-government players from the payment model for Medicare and health payment generally.

      Reply ↓
      1. LawnDart

        Luring seniors away from Medicare to Medicare Advantage is part of it

        “Little girl, hey little girl… I’ll give you some candy if you help me find my lost puppy.” [Kind of the same goal, if you think about it]

        One of the best things the DOGE dudes could accomplish for American competitiveness would be to remove non-government players from the payment model for Medicare and health payment generally.

        Huge. And a reminder that there actually are goods and services out there that are necessary for a healthy society (and economy) and should never, ever be commodified.

        I think that the excesses of this capitalism-stuff are quickly propelling me far past mere sympathies for socialism and into an embrace of hardcore, bloody-red communism– although at this point, any revolution would do.

        Reply ↓
        2. Erstwhile

          Good for you. I’m very sincere when I say that. Your last paragraph is a great summation of my thinking all my adult life. I started out as a blue-collar, somewhat conservative, college student in the late sixties, started to put two and two together, and now, fifty years later, I’m still doing the math, and socialism always seems to be the right solution. I read your comment yesterday, but it kind of got stuck in my head, so I had to post.

          Reply ↓
      2. marym

        Isn’t removing government functions (and workers) from government a key DOGE objective?

        “In an op-ed co-written for Forbes in June 2020, [Trump’s choice to head CMS] Oz said Medicare Advantage offers better care due to there being competing plans. He said Medicare Advantage could also be expanded to all Americans who are not on Medicaid, which would be funded by a 20% payroll tax. He has also promoted Medicare Advantage on his show, “The Dr. Oz Show.”

        Trump, too, has promoted Medicare Advantage, touting new benefits for seniors who were enrolled in the plan. What’s more, Project 2025 — a plan of conservative policy proposals proposed by the Heritage Foundation — has proposed Medicare Advantage be the default option for Medicare coverage.”
        https://abcnews.go.com/Health/dr-oz-cms-medicare-medicaid/story?id=116043014

        More links:
        https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/11/200pm-water-cooler-11-20-2024.html#comment-4135365

        Reply ↓
      3. Neutrino

        The generic business model is to consider everything as being on the table.

        How much can we charge each individual based on those unique characteristics, well beyond mere income and credit score? Social media, other factors as needed, meaning as available. Or estimate?!

        How can we finesse the infinitessimal differences in revenue and expense categories to maximize or minimize each for desired results? You want anesthesia for how long? Bwahahaha. That insurer is reported to have relented, for the time being. All now is well beyond the old cost accounting tricks that jacked up prices of individual pills. Amateurs!

        And, most importantly, as conveyed by a sociopathic board chair, owners come first.
        Patients, employees, not so much.

        Reply ↓
    3. Skip Intro

      It shouldn’t be so unexpected, but it looks like the US is on the road to single-payer healthcare, with payer and provider all owned by United Healthcare!

      All because of a ‘hack’ that prevented claims from going in, and bankrupted the docs. They should probably be pretty grateful to those ‘hackers’. I think we should now assume that if a company admits it was hacked, it is covering its own misbehavior, and when a company is really hacked, they deny it.

      Reply ↓
      1. griffen

        In a perfect world well that might be true, but individual states here in the southeastern US can have more than one bad choice. Blue Cross Blue Shield is quite prominent in NC I believe, as of the middle 90s BCBS had the attractive Medicaid contract.

        This is America after all, we can find means to support multiple ( crooked ) insurers across the country! \sarc

        Reply ↓
        1. mrsyk

          This could prove correct. How much, do you suppose, that data haul is worth. A self hack and ransom payment extraction certainly fits in with the PE asset management model. I consider this a working theory in the murder case as well.

          Reply ↓
      3. Randall Flagg

        >It shouldn’t be so unexpected, but it looks like the US is on the road to single-payer healthcare, with payer and provider all owned by United Healthcare!

        Isn’t the system that lady describes about United healthcare in the X clip
        What Business school types would call “Vertical Integration “?

        Reply ↓
    4. Sub-Boreal

      Yesterday, I commented to a friend that one positive development would be that if instead of “online sleuths” trying to track down the UH CEO’s shooter, we started to see a mass movement of sympathizers dressing up similarly, and eventually claiming responsibility. Imagine if this movement swelled from dozens to hundreds to thousands …

      Today it may be starting: https://x.com/taliaotg/status/1865462468954161214

      But this had distant literary echoes, so I need help from a knowledgeable maven: I vaguely recall an American novel from the 80s (+/-) which had a scene in which thousands came forward from all over the country, claiming responsibility for assassinating Richard Nixon. But I’m drawing a blank on the title and author.

      Reply ↓
  7. The Rev Kev

    “JCS CHIEF GENERAL CHARLES BROWN JUST PROVED THAT NOTHING SHORT OF UKRAINE’S SURRENDER IS NEGOTIABLE WITH THE US — THAT’S CAPITULATION, NOT NEGOTIATION’

    Good grief, Charlie Brown. Don’t you realize that outing a private official conversation means that your reputation is now trash with the Russians? Macron did the same and since then the Russians haven’t given him the time of day. But then there is this section-

    ‘That followed on the day after the Gerasimov-Brown telephone call. Massed Russian missile and drone strikes across the Ukraine on November 28 also targeted and killed US personnel operating ATACMS launchers in the Sumy region.’

    Wait, what? What is the bet that the number of US military “training accidents” has skyrocketed the past three years. There were American soldiers getting killed helping the Ukrainians fight as far back as 2015 which have never been acknowledged either.

    Reply ↓
  8. MicaT

    Energy.
    The wind article leaves out the other giant piece of the pie which is the Chinese wind companies and their quality and much lower price.
    It’s unclear how many offshore wind farms would happen in the US regardless of president due to costs. The wind farms they backed out on were going to be costing about $.2 kWh, staggeringly high. That’s just the cost of the power, which is usually a quarter to a half of the retail price.

    As to meta data center. I think they were legit in wanting nuclear power but the process is so slow here even for already approved AP1000 no way it would be ready in 5 yrs. While in China they are built in like 3 yrs if what I’ve read is true.

    Reply ↓
    1. Grumpy Engineer

      “While in China they are built in like 3 yrs if what I’ve read is true.”

      It might be. I do know that the South Koreans built their nuclear fleet with an average build-time per reactor of 6 years, so it’s clearly possible to build nuclear reactors in just a few years. But here in the US, the latest reactors to come online, Vogtle units 3 and 4, took a whopping 15 years to build. And cost 6X as much. When it comes to nuclear power construction in the US, something is deeply screwed up.

      I also think that Meta genuinely wanted to use nuclear power. But given the likely timelines, I’m not at all surprised that they picked quick (and cheap) gas turbines instead.

      Reply ↓
      1. vao

        It is again one of those assertions that is proferred without defining what “built” exactly entails. There is an interesting thread in X/Twitter showing that in China, while the physical engineering and construction work is indeed speedy, the whole affair of planning and approval can take a lot of time for a variety of reasons — just as in Western countries.

        Reply ↓
        1. CA

          What is inadvertently shown by the notes is that China was doing the research and development necessary to construct and operate entire nuclear plants domestically. The work has been completed. China has become truly energy self-sufficient, and this is pointed out with every project completed.

          For instance, there were only a couple of countries that made F-class heavy-duty gas turbines, which are especially complex, but now there is China which has made and is shipping advanced F-class heavy-duty turbines.

          Reply ↓
        2. CA

          https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-11-26/China-ships-its-first-F-class-heavy-duty-gas-turbine-1fhxPw7vfNK/index.html

          November 26, 2022

          China ships its first F-class heavy-duty gas turbine
          By Gong Zhe

          China shipped its first F-class heavy-duty gas turbine from Deyang City, Sichuan Province on Friday, according to a report from China Media Group (CMG). *

          The turbine, with a capacity of 50 megawatts, signifies China’s breakthrough in the area, CMG said.

          It took over 13 years for the country to design and build such a turbine, which will enter real-world operations after shipment.

          Heavy-duty gas turbines are core equipment for power plants. Many engineers in China describe it as the “crown jewel” in the manufacturing industry.

          The turbine has tens of thousands of parts, which involved hundreds of companies and research institutions to design and manufacture. China has formed a supply chain of designing and building such turbines without the use of imported technologies.

          * https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1224391.shtml

          Reply ↓
        3. CA

          “It is again one of those assertions that is proffered without defining…”

          A really important comment, and reflects the reason China invests so much and what it means to develop comprehensively. The F-class heavy-duty gas turbine that took 13 years to develop, now allows China to produce not only 50MW but 300MW turbines. Same for Stirling engines. Same for advanced transmission microscopes. Same for an advanced GPS. Same for 4.1 million 5G base stations. Same for seeds for large, sweet tomatoes…

          Reply ↓
      2. CA

        https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-01-06/How-the-world-s-first-fourth-generation-nuclear-power-plant-works-1q8JzrGNrj2/p.html

        January 6, 2024

        How the world’s first fourth-generation nuclear power plant works
        By Zheng Yibing

        The world’s first fourth-generation nuclear power plant, Huaneng Shandong Shidao Bay Nuclear Power Plant in eastern China’s Shandong Province, went into commercial operation on December 6, 2023 and has been running well, according to officials at the plant.

        The power plant has drawn global attention as it adopts High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor-Pebble-bed Module (HTR-PM), which is claimed to be able to steer away from a meltdown or leak of radioactive materials even in extreme conditions.

        “In the past few weeks of its commercial use, our two reactors in the power unit have maintained the initial full power stable operation. They generate electricity every day with the power of 150 megawatts,” said Zhang Yijin, a chief operator at the power plant…

        Reply ↓
    2. CA

      https://english.news.cn/20241012/9427ee48ce574061ba677d1aae892924/c.html

      October 12, 2024

      World’s largest floating offshore wind turbine rolls off production line in China

      NANJING — The world’s most powerful floating offshore wind turbine, with a generating capacity of 20 megawatts, has rolled off the production line in Yancheng city, east China’s Jiangsu Province, according to the country’s leading train maker CRRC Corporation Limited (CRRC).

      The wind turbine, independently developed by China, features a wind wheel with a diameter of 260 meters and a swept area of 53,100 square meters, roughly the size of seven standard soccer fields.

      The turbine can generate 62 million kWh of electricity annually, enough to power about 37,000 households, saving 25,000 tonnes of coal while cutting carbon dioxide emissions by 62,000 tonnes.

      With its semi-submersible floating platform and mooring system, enhanced by smart control and sensing technologies, the turbine extends wind power’s reach into deeper waters, ensuring stable operation.

      “Floating offshore wind turbines are a key technological trend shaping the future of wind energy development,” said Wang Dian, deputy general manager of CRRC Qi Hang New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.

      The turbine offers customizable options for various water depths, providing optimized solutions for deep-sea wind power resources…

      Reply ↓
  9. Anti-Fake-Semite

    “President Biden was deeply concerned,” Katie Rogers and Glenn Thrush reported, “that legal problems would push his son into a relapse after years of sobriety, and he began to realize there might not be any way out beyond issuing a pardon.”

    Wow. If the son of the most powerful man in the country cannot stay clean without the help of a presidential pardon, how the hell do the rest of us little people cope? It’s self-accountability and bootstrap-pulling for me but not for thee.

    Reply ↓
        1. Wukchumni

          Hunter is merely pardoned for any crimes and/or malfeasance the past decade, isn’t the clock ticking again on future endeavors of his?

          Reply ↓
        2. griffen

          ‘Tis a mystery… wrapped up or concealed so as not to bring alarm to the real owner or purveyor of the alleged substance…

          Reply ↓
    2. griffen

      Joe Biden, he trembles at the thought of his son facing the wheels of justice which were indeed turning, but in a slow and grinding methodical manner. “Will no one please rid us of these meddlesome kids, er, IRS agents !?!”. \Sarc

      I’ll find my tiny violin for poor dear Hunter.

      Reply ↓
    5. neutrino23

      “ Wow. If the son of the most powerful man in the country cannot stay clean without the help of a presidential pardon, how the hell do the rest of us little people cope? It’s self-accountability and bootstrap-pulling for me but not for thee.”

      Most people struggling with addiction don’t have the entire Republican Party breathing down their necks trying to put them in jail via bogus investigations or otherwise stressing them out so they would relapse.

      Reply ↓
      1. griffen

        A federal jury found otherwise….aren’t we all subject to laws of the land? This individual has a history of skirting real damage or anything that resembles justice due to his own actions. Give the man some leeway I suggest after losing an older brother but that’s more a suggestion of empathy.

        https://www.npr.org/2024/06/10/nx-s1-5001231/hunter-biden-guilty

        adding, are we to only ever rely upon or believe government whistleblower reports when it suits to our politics or political beliefs system? A few IRS agents acted as whistleblowers that this man’s tax filing failures had indeed been slow walked or pressured from higher up the chain.

        Reply ↓
      2. no one

        Are you actually trying to present Hunter as a victim? Why would anyone want to do that, except members of Biden family? What is your motivation?

        Reply ↓
  10. Wukchumni

    Rockin’ around diplomacy
    At the Christmas cease fire party hop
    Misleading hopes hung where you can see
    Every time Antony makes a stop
    Rockin’ around diplomacy
    Let the Christmas spirit ring
    Later we’ll have some denials
    And we’ll do some backpeddling

    You will get a sentimental feeling when you hear
    Voices singing, let’s be jolly
    Check the news for sheer folly
    Rockin’ around diplomacy
    Have a happy holiday
    Antony lyin’ merrily
    In the new old-fashioned way

    You will get a sentimental feeling when you hear
    Voices singing, let’s be jolly
    Check the news with bouts of folly
    Rockin’ around diplomacy
    Have a happy holiday
    Antony lyin’ merrily
    In the new old-fashioned way

    Reply ↓
  11. Henry Moon Pie

    Anarchy and order–

    Professor Huang’s article is a thought-provoking read. His opening example of self-organized ride-sharing and the accompanying photo reminded me of a couple of experiences from my youth. My senior year in college, I lived with my girlfriend (now spouse) in an apartment across the river that required me to catch the bus in front of the Coop at Harvard Square. The scene was general chaos: Hare Krishna dancing and singing; little old ladies who could bring down Saquon with one swing of their purse or umbrella; rude students like me who had learned to game where the bus was going to stop, etc. As soon as the bus appeared, it was madness.

    Eighteen months later, I was staying with a high school classmate who was living in Vienna, VA while working at Langley. I was in DC interviewing for a summer law clerkship with a labor union. I took the bus into town, and was a little taken aback at what I found early that morning at that Vienna bus stop. There was a neat, single-file line of men in trench coats with briefcases. When the bus arrived, there was no crowding or jockeying for position. Everyone filed onto the bus in the most orderly fashion.

    Now according to James Scott, cited by Huang in the article, who were behaving like anarchists?

    Reply ↓
    1. mrsyk

      Good morning. As this seems like a trick question, and I know little of political philosophy, I’m going with the cats in the video doing the Roly-Poly.

      Reply ↓
      2. Bsn

        Roly-Poly – thanks for mentioning this. Roly-Poly, one of my favorite songs. Can’t really sing this type of thing anymore or one will be cancelled. 2.5 minute of fun!

        Reply ↓
    2. scott s.

      That is an interesting observation. In my time working in NoVa (Crystal City across from National AP) there were the “slugging” lines in Pentagon South parking where commuters would pick up riders (known as “slugs”) so they could use the I-395 express lanes. That was before Va implemented the variable-pricing toll system so now I guess you can buy your way into the express lanes. Don’t know if that changed the ride share dynamic.

      Reply ↓
      1. fringe element

        This was standard in the SF bay area in the 70s. Students & young working folks would line up with our thumbs out, commuting from the east bay into the city. Most recent arrivals would go to the back of the line. Drivers picked up passengers to use the express lanes. I was one of those young hitch-hikers and have many colorful memories of those rides. All time favorite was a guy who, upon discovering that I could speak fumbling French, made it a point to give me a ride and insist on speaking only French all the way into the city.

        Reply ↓
  12. The Rev Kev

    ‘Angelo Giuliano 🇨🇭🇮🇹🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻🔻 安德龙
    @angeloinchina
    ***BREAKING NEWS***
    This is a COUP
    RIP democracy in Romania’

    More of those European values at work. If you don’t get the election result that you want, then hold it again. It was the globalist candidate Elena Lasconi that was supposed to win. This is shown by the people that announced support for her like Moldovan President Maia Sandu, Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili and French President Emmanuel Macron. The Romanian main stream media were doing their part by not talking to the guy that went on to win. Now they just made up bs charges that he is a Russian agent but if that was true, they would have barred him running in the second round which has already started in overseas countries where the Romanian diaspora are. It will be interesting to see how ordinary Romanians act. When the establishment tried to stop Trump running through lawfare, a lot of Americans went on to vote for him as a very large extended middle finger to them. It would be hilarious if the Romanians did the same but I am sure that all sorts of plans and schemes are being enacted to bring this guy down. And if there is an assassination attempt with a Ukrainian connection, I would not be surprised.

    Reply ↓
    1. Polar Socialist

      Now they just made up bs charges that he is a Russian agent…

      Not really. They alleged that a social media campaign not completely unlike Russian interference was run supporting this candidate, therefore the democracy of elections was in doubt.

      So it’s absurdly weak weak tea. Basically annulment of an election because a candidate had a campaign presence in TikTok.

      Reply ↓
      2. NN Cassandra

        Note the unstated assumption in all this, that you can actually convince people to sell out their own country just by showing them couple of 30 second videos. If that were true, then democracy is impossible, the best you can do is create totalitarian state that is controlled by whoever is able to pump out these videos to people eyeballs. Which of course is what the “liberal democrats” really believe, with their contempt for the gullible proles.

        Reply ↓
        1. Chris Cosmos

          Democracy as we have imagined it is impossible. Not only have we rapidly (by historical standards) changed our values and morality, we have also been sucked into the online world that is just begging to be controlled because it is the ideal situation for those who believe the meaning of life is control and domination–these are people who rule us and will rule us whether they are on the side of Musk or Soros.

          Reply ↓
          1. NN Cassandra

            I would argue this episode shows those who rule us are not so firmly up in the control saddle when they need to resort to such ridiculous brute force measures.

            Reply ↓
      3. The Rev Kev

        ‘not completely unlike Russian interference’

        That’s what all those spooks said about Hunter Biden’s laptop. That it was not unlike Russian propaganda so therefore it can therefore be dismissed.

        Reply ↓
    2. Kouros

      It is a howl of anger and gnashing of teeth as well as desperation from within and without Romania. While some rejoice, many/most see it as disenfranchisment.

      When I first heard, I had the same feeling I had almost 35 years ago, when we were shown on the telly, after a very very very long wait, the summary trial and execution of Ceausescu and his wife. We as people were robbed of truth and justice plus we were saddled with a crime because most of Romanians did not really want Ceausescu dead but maybe behind bars. And nobody was accusing him of the deaths during revolution, since during Timisoara he was in Iran and after the balcony scene in Bucharest he was on the run and then locked up in a military garrison.

      It is very grim and it will be deeply resented. I do resent it. Just dreamt a plan to start opening a youtube channel and TicTok one, get Alex Mercouris posts put in text, correct and translate, and then reproduce them in Romanian for a Romanian audience.

      Reply ↓
  13. ProNewerDeal

    I wonder what the US (and aligned/NATO nations’) ruling elite are personally doing on Covid. I recall the article (on OK Doomer?) that the Davos conference was pro-serious Covid mitigation, with the hotel room key working tied to Covid tests, and with world-class air filtration & UV light equipment in all conference rooms.

    My assumption is that there is NO secret sterilizing immunity vaccine or other measure (nasal vaccine not available to public, Ivermectin) that is secretely only available to the Billionaire/Ruling class. Any vaccine or supplement is risk-reducing (by maybe even 90pct) but NOT risk-eliminating for infection, hospitalization/death, or organ damage/Long Covid risk

    It seems that some Billionaire/oligarchs are personally pro-Covid mitigation. Examples are the Google founders Brin & Page. They are 51 and not obese – although every human faces Covid risk, they are not at the highest risk level. Presumably they enjoy working in computer science R&D given their PhD degree. I would guess they could design their own dream job at Google, whether independent R&D researcher, R&D exec, or business exec. I wonder if Covid risk is a reason they entirely quit Google.

    In contrast, the obese Musk is in personally Covid Let Er Rip mode.

    It seems that Biden at 1 point was in Mitigation mode, requiring Covid tests of any White House staff or visitors. But it appears that Biden flip-flopped to a Musk-like Let Er Rip position.

    Reply ↓
      2. gf

        He is getting there.
        He makes me ill so i attempted to avoid anything to do with him..
        But seeing him just lately surprised me. He is not healthy any more.

        Reply ↓
    3. Yves Smith Post author

      What I find bizarre is you can buy a nasal spray with Covid antibodies, good for 6 hours of protection, in Thailand and only Thailand. Developed by a US biotech and Thai med school. Sold OTC here Why not elsewhere?

      Reply ↓
      1. vao

        I strongly suspect serious complications regarding IPR are the reason. One would have to look at the legal agreements between the Thai medical school and the firm from the USA, and be knowledgeable about the Thai law regarding the implications about licensing/sharing/transfer of IPR developed nationally.

        Reply ↓
        1. Yves Smith Post author

          The Thais would be eager to have it licensed, for $ and even more important, prestige reasons. The Thai medical system is a royal project and increasing medical tourism a national priority.

          Plus the US biotech would not have agreed to a deal (they were almost assuredly the tech lead) if the licensing provisions were restrictive.

          Reply ↓
      2. Bsn

        Yves, can you mail us some? Address is: Everyone in America, 500 each Main St. All Towns, Zip Code is 0 – 10,000.
        “We’ll buy if you fly”

        Reply ↓
  14. The Rev Kev

    “Rubio Is Bad News for the U.S. and Latin America”

    Rubio may have a tough time of it. I am sure that he wants the US to attack Cuba and Venezuela and topple their governments but he may have to get in line. There are other bigger groups that want to go after China, to go after Russia and to go after Iran. He may end up having to take a number.

    Reply ↓
    1. Wukchumni

      Relax, we’re covered under the auspices of the Marilyn Monroe Doctrine, where it’s always the 1950’s and we do what we want, to quote Cartman.

      Reply ↓
      1. fringe element

        Cartman on the Marilyn Monroe Doctrine?

        Golly, I may have to watch some South Park after I finish listening to Pablo Casals perform the dickens out of some Bach fugues.

        Also, from now on, I will only refer to the Monroe Doctrine as the Marilyn Monroe Doctrine. A term that used to make me grind my teeth will now make me laugh – yay!

        Reply ↓
      1. Felix

        agree,arguably if anyone at the Joint Chiefs was tasked with finding a nation the US military is capable of defeating Mexico would be high on the list. Trump would be all in. Sheinbaum officially recognized a State of Palestine so Democrats would also be down. lastly americans have always enjoyed the slaughter of brown people,

        Reply ↓
        1. fringe element

          Wait – isn’t Canada about to become the 51st state, according to Trump’s dig at Trudeau?

          Should we invade Mexico before or after Canada joins the union?

          Reply ↓
  16. TomDority

    General comment – Why with all the fighting going on – why aren’t the end state desired results ever spoken of directly, clearly and with non-morphing abstractions – it always appears to be some nebulous grounds based on speculations and predictions one could find upon gazing into some crystal ball, tossing of chicken bones, reading tea leaves. I believe the best defense in a democracy is an informed citizenry not the busting of bones and bullying in foreign lands or transgressing basic self evident rights of others without any view to the mirror of self reflection.
    This is only my opinion and is discouraging to say the least.
    on another note
    There seems to be a general agreement that religion in politics is wrong if it helps the other side.

    Reply ↓
    1. mrsyk

      why aren’t the end state desired results ever spoken of . Because these end results are steeped in violations of international law?

      Reply ↓
    2. John Wright

      I am of the opinion that the USA brand of democracy is not particularly valued by the population at large.

      After all 90 million of 245 million eligible voters didn’t vote in the Trump-Harris election.

      One’s family is unlikely run as a democracy nor is one’s religion or workplace.

      The institution the USA moves around the world to promote “democracy”, the USA military, is not run as a democracy.

      As my high school civics teacher said “When you hear a politician claim he is for the common man, see who he plays golf with, see who he has dinner with, it’s not the common man”.

      Perhaps the USA will turn more inward and locally focused, which may benefit the USA “common people” and, indirectly, people in foreign lands.

      Democracy, in the USA, is more of a marketing brand used to influence the population

      Reply ↓
      1. TomDority

        Heritage Foundation Leadership 2025 has a blurb in it … basically says to expand the branding initiative started by Trump. Branding is what Trump is all about – nothing else.

        Reply ↓
      1. Michel

        WW1 started with the Russian Empire supported the Serb after Austria-Hungry attacked them.

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhjCOtjv6ts

        Lavrov can’t say the elephant in the room 7 countries in 5 years war in the Middle East revealed by Westley Clark in Democracy now in 2007, after 9/11 and the project for American Century by World bank president 2005-2007 Paul D. Wolfowitz. Paul D. Wolfowitz, the World Bank’s 10th president, served from June 1, 2005, to June 30, 2007
        Why ? Russia have its own 9/11 2 years earlier 9.9.1999 to initiate 2nd Chechen war, 300 dead 1/10 of 9/11 death count

        Yeltsin called Clinton Sept 8th 1999 to present to him Vladimir Putin, new prime minister, new war in Chechnia, after the unilateral bombing of Yugoslavia March 24 1999, after the enlargement of NATO 12 days to Poland Czech Republic and Hungary https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/101609

        Reply ↓
  17. Dr. John Carpenter

    That Dean Phillips Tweet is an enraging example of playing dumb. Ignoring the fact that no one is forcing these companies to play by these “rules” that put billions in their pockets, who does Phillips think is pushing for these rules in the first place? That corrupting money in politics didn’t just magically appear, nor did the rules allowing it. They can’t write the rule book and then claim their evilness was just following the rules.

    Reply ↓
    1. Neutrino

      DC is in perennial opposite day.
      The shock is not what is illegal, but what isn’t!

      Those lobbyists work overtime to craft legislation, carveouts and such to benefit their masters, then grease the process with those backhanders, tickets, galas, and anything else they can manage.

      Reply ↓
  18. mrsyk

    Regarding Brian Thompson, tik tok goes the clock. Disappearing without a trace is whispering “pro” (or maybe semi-pro?). Hard to do in this day and age. Time will tell.

    Reply ↓
    1. ChrisFromGA

      Interesting that all that surveillance state paraphernalia (ubiquitous cameras, facial recognition, AI, DNA) so far hasn’t been able to cut it.

      He may have already caught the next flight out to Buenos Aires or Rio.

      Reply ↓
  19. Wukchumni

    The obesity crisis in the USA: why are there no signs of plateauing yet? Lancet
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~
    The biggest coin dealer in the world hails from Texas, and circa 1984 he must have checked in at 500 pounds, I remember thinking that most anybody could fit both of their legs into 1 of his pant legs, huuuuuge.

    He came in handy though in Hong Kong when we’d attend coin shows there, as I somewhat churlishly utilized him as my blocker walking down Queen’s Rd chock full of people on the sidewalk, kept him 10 feet ahead of me to distance myself and watch reactions from reedy locals.

    I see an awful lot of people his size now, a few years back in the Wal*Mart parking lot, a 1/2 ton of humans got out of their jalopy and got into a squabble over who got to use the elderly/disabled electric cart not 20 feet from where they parked, which was 100 feet from the entrance of the store. He won, she had to walk.

    Reply ↓
    1. mrsyk

      Save some judgement for the top of the food chain.

      Evicore is owned by Cigna. Cigna’s largest shareholders;
      Name Equities Valuation
      Vanguard Fiduciary Trust Co. 9.333 % 26,091,230 8 214 M $
      BlackRock Advisors LLC 6.306 % 17,628,188 5 550 M $
      Fidelity Management & Research Co. LLC 5.087 % 14,221,833 4 477 M $
      STATE STREET CORPORATION 4.588 % 12,825,341 4 038 M $

      United Health’s largest shareholders;
      Name Equities Valuation
      Vanguard Fiduciary Trust Co. 9.231 % 84,953,598 47 956 M $
      BlackRock Advisors LLC 6.011 % 55,318,839 31 227 M $
      STATE STREET CORPORATION 4.948 % 45,540,102 25 707 M $
      Fidelity Management & Research Co. LLC 3.530 % 32,482,317 18 336 M $

      Reply ↓
        1. mrsyk

          That’s true, yet we see executive suite bonus pools fed primarily by performance fees to benefit equally unlikable executives.

          Reply ↓
        2. scott s.

          And Vanguard is “owned” by its mutual funds, and the mutual funds by their investors, though “democracy” through the annual proxies system is mostly a theory.

          Reply ↓
  21. Carolinian

    That’s a good Stoller and relevant I think to Middle East discussions contending that “might makes right” will prevail. The problem for eliminationists is that when you threaten other people’s lives they have nothing to lose by opposing you. Or, to paraphrase, rationality is the solution only when all the irrational and violent solutions have been tried.

    Reply ↓
  22. Pat

    My ironic moment of the last 24 hours was during my last minute seeking the best deal I can get in a Medigap policy. Even as the media was having to give up the good fight and acknowledge how hated health insurance companies are AND that it is deserved (particularly United Health), I was being informed by two different studies that the best liked provider of Medigap insurance in NY was…United Health.
    *Head against desk*
    My dark humor also laughs while crying over the fact that UHI’s partner for this type of insurance is AARP.

    We are so screwed in America, no wonder they are trying to export this to other countries with better more civilized healthcare.

    Reply ↓
    1. mrsyk

      I imagine there are more than a few fellow citizens “savoring” this delicious irony as we speak. Put a cold compress on that bruise.

      Reply ↓
    2. Cat Burglar

      When I applied for Medigap, the Medicare information page for it did not even function, as if they were trying to keep the option obscure, just as it was in the Medicare manual. That tasted awful funny. The option is almost never treated in newspaper articles.

      Reply ↓
      1. Pat

        Medicare is supposedly in trouble but they are busy directing people to a scam that costs the program 22% more per enrollee. It is a conundrum.

        And yes, I do believe that since it gets worse than just hiding the page. My story on the website and the process goes like this: As I was planning on changing policies, I went to their information earlier this year (soon after the changes for Pt D were announced.) Before the open enrollment period there were limited available in the categories I was considering, but as it was just early recon I was just interested in who was out there and what was offered last year for change. Got my questions together and just was waiting for open enrollment. Procrastination and life means I do not return until the final days of open enrollment and I see a handful of providers in the two categories I am considering. Trying to check on or get more information and I discover that most of them don’t actually have medigap plans. You go to their websites and find pages that go nowhere or no related links but lots of requests for information before you can even see if they offer the service in your area.You call the numbers they have listed and you get things called Healthcare Services or Servicers. They are answered by people who are only interested in telling you about the Medicare Advantage options available to you. If you tell them you are not interested and are only there about a medigap policy, they keep circling back to all the benefits and how much it will save you if you let them tell you about other ‘services’. (They get really annoyed if you start telling them facts about MA, just an FYI). And if they give you a different number to call (because you point out that their number was attached to an official government website that said there was information for the policy you are looking for) it leads to the same thing or just isn’t answered – you are directed to call back. After finding this to be the case with three different “providers”, I admit they made me give up for this year. I am stuck with yes…AARP/UHI. I have already put in my calendar, three different reminders for next year to arrange an appointment with the organization that helped me when I was first getting Medicare. They have NO affiliation with any insurance company and no ulterior motive. I was never more thankful for them and their help at that time as I am now a few years later and multiple phone trees and scam advisors later. (I have also already gone about sending them an additional donation for the year.)

        But beyond UHI, I am incensed on a different level. This is a con, it is very clearly Bait and Switch. I am tempted to see what my family blogging Congressperson Dan Goldman’s staff might say if I bring this up to them. Almost enough to break my vow never to have anything to do with him. I will be calling my former Congressperson’s office regardless, and already have letters ready to go out to both Schumer and Gillibrand about it. Not because I expect any of them to do anything, but because the government shouldn’t be helping to deceive the public even further. And until we can blow it up entirely I still have this cranky determination to let them know that they should be doing their job.

        Reply ↓
        1. mrsyk

          I urge both of you, and anybody else affected, to examine the February 1 data breach at Change Healthcare. I believe you will find it relevant. These two documents are a good start. There is an excellent calendar of events in the second.
          Change Healthcare Data Breach Settlement Talks Due to Commence, hippa journal.
          Understanding the Change Healthcare Breach and Its Impact on Security Compliance hyperproof (from their blog page)

          Regarding the pending litigation, if these settlement talks don’t yield a timely agreement, it goes to trial there will be discovery. This gives weight to the theory that Thompson’s murder was orchestrated by someone from within this arena with something to lose.

          Reply ↓
  23. Wukchumni

    Well now Hunter is again respected in society
    We don’t worry about the things that he used to be
    We’re talking cocaine & the President
    Well it’s a problem, sir, but it can’t be lent
    Uh yes!
    Well now you’re a pillar of society
    You don’t worry about the things that you used to be
    You’re a name-trade grifter, when you’re not watching porn
    You make the easiest pay on the White House lawn
    Get out of my life, don’t come back
    Get out of my life, don’t come back

    He’s so respectable
    He’s so respectable
    He’s so erectable
    He’s so respectable
    Get out of my life
    Take my advice
    Don’t come back
    Get out of my life
    Take my advice
    Don’t come back
    What I say!

    He’s so respectable
    He’s so respectable
    He’s so respectable
    He’s so respectable
    Get out of my life
    Take my advice
    Don’t come back
    Oh get out of my life
    Take my advice
    Don’t come back

    Respectable, by the Rolling Stones

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptDz5BwAgXQ

    Reply ↓
  24. flora

    re: GOP senator to DeJoy: I will ‘kill’ your plan to reform USPS – Government Executive

    Good for Hawley.

    DeJoy pulled this delivery slowdown trick a few years back and it was a near disaster. Bills and tax forms stopped arriving in time to avoid bill pay late fees. Tax forms were arriving after the IRS spring tax deadline. I called one tax form sender to ask why I hadn’t received my form yet. I was told the forms had been mailed out weeks ago, and they’d been getting lots of calls from people on their mailing list about missing forms. I wasn’t the only person who called my congress critter to complain I’d guess.

    Something must have happened because bills and forms started arriving again in a timely manner. Now DeJoy wants a second go at that nonsense? No thank you.

    Reply ↓
    1. mrsyk

      ( dons tinfoil hat) DeJoy looks to be at risk of becoming an exercised prosecution future as, in my world he delivered PA in 2020.

      Reply ↓
    2. Jason Boxman

      And Biden and the Democrats could have gotten rid of this guy, lol. Actions are always more telling than words.

      Oops — given the current climate, I mean they could have replaced him with someone else.

      Reply ↓
  25. timbers

    United Healthcare ***** Here in Red Tennessee, I overheard coworkers talking about the shooting of the CEO. Was a bit surprised how, far from being critical of the act, they indirectly supported it with their own real life encounters of dealing with health insurance claims. And yet It’s amazing the total lack of elective people addressing our failed canabalist Healthcare system and using that issue to attract votes. Me? I’d breakout champagne in celebration of what is hopefully only a first step.

    Reply ↓
    1. mrsyk

      I’m hearing other’s relating similar experiences. Spitballing here, I’m blaming the censorship regime. I agree on amazing, is it that we get no media output on what is evidently a widely shared life experience that could be cured with responsible governance?
      I’m thinking the shooter let the djinn out of the bottle here by raising a national awareness.

      Reply ↓
  26. Bugs

    From the You Can’t Make This Up file, I just read that Macron invited Zelensky to Paris for the Notre Dame Cathedral reopening bash and self thank you party this Sunday and is going to have him meet with Trump. Worst blind date ever? Macron has the diplomatic instincts of a 16yo high school busybody.

    Reply ↓
    2. The Rev Kev

      The last meeting between Trump and Zelensky did not go so well and Trump was not impressed. He will have to watch himself around Macron as the guy is a snake.

      Reply ↓
  27. Mikel

    There aren’t 50 small wars, there is just 1 big one – Alon Mizrahi

    “…fighting an ideology and a monstrous machine of full domination and colonization that aims to fully control (and monetize) every aspect of the life of every human being (and then maybe aliens, if they find them)…”

    The fight against “automated enshittification” – that’s the term I would use.

    Reply ↓
  28. Mikel

    Can Biden “Pardon” Student Debt? (w/ Braxton Brewington) – Briahna Joy Gray, YouTube

    That would need a pre-emptive pardon as well.

    Reply ↓
  29. Chris Cosmos

    On China’s “direction”: China, Russia, and others who find themselves in the crosshairs of the Empire have to be or become authoritarian societies just to survive the full out war by Washington to dominate the world. If Ukraine doen’t work, then there’s Syria, if that doesn’t work there are any number of countries to be dominated through threats, coups, assassinations, sanctions, bribery and so on. We have to remember that the Empire (aka “the West”) has almost unlimited funds assigned for “security” and particularly covert operations. There is no shortage of men who like to kill for money (I’ve met a few) and love the status of Seals or SAS or Rangers or whatever that warriors naturally have in societies like ours. The same goes for the information warriors and propagandists (all the mainstream media senior editors and producers)–show them the money and they’ll do “anything” to accomplish their tasks usually in competition with their peers. In the face of a rich and relentless enemy those countries in the crosshairs better be disciplined and repressive or they will be destroyed. Somehow, I don’t see Trump changing this though I believe he will probably try–I’m skeptical.

    Reply ↓
  30. Mikel

    Putting Syria’s Conflict in Context: Reality on the Ground Driving Difficult Decisions – Brian Berletic, YouTube

    Around 12:27 mark: “People are talking about Tartus – this area where Russian forces are based in their port. There are mountainous regions protecting Latakia and Tartus…”

    Me: looking out to sea off the coast and seeing Cyprus.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/cyprus-takes-delivery-israeli-air-defence-system-report-says-2024-12-05/

    Will some more news about Cyprus be on the horizon?

    Reply ↓
    1. Bugs

      I think the Anglos are content to leave Cyprus divided by an unsettled conflict to weaken cohesion and continue using it as an aircraft carrier of the coast of the Levant. You’re right, you never hear a word about it anymore. It’s disgusting.

      Reply ↓
      1. The Rev Kev

        There was an article a few days ago floating the idea of Cyprus going into NATO. The Turks would never agree and would blackball the whole idea while the Greek Cypriots may not be so keen. But as Romania has proven who needs to listen to the people.

        Reply ↓
  31. Jason Boxman

    From The Key to Affordable Living Is Moving In With Your Sibling

    Love this. We’ve had the largest decrease in life expectancy in history due to COVID, but:

    More adults have moved in with their siblings in recent years, a reflection of how it is becoming harder and more expensive to buy a home or make the rent. With Americans living longer and having fewer children—and divorcing late in life—siblings can be the closest people left for support.

    (bold mine)

    I guess longer than in 1867. But not as long as 2019.

    What a feel good story! Everyone in America is finding a way to just make it all work, hooray!

    Reply ↓
  32. JBird4049

    NYPD brass say suspect in CEO assassination ‘may’ have fled the city 2 days ago Gothamist. This means, aside from doing forensics on the gun and bullets and trying to find DNA, the NYPD is done. “

    Oh.

    IIRC, the clearance rate (as opposed to the conviction rate) has been on the general decline for several decades.

    Reply ↓
  33. Wukchumni

    Pee-back time: Anti-Pee Paint Splashes Back at Public Urination ZMEScience
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    As if the homeless didn’t have enough going against them already…

    Reply ↓
    2. Pat

      I have a friend who has had prostrate issues for years. His attitude, after a long period looking for restrooms that the public are allowed to access got to be that if the city and businesses in NYC didn’t want men urinating in public they would address the need for public restrooms.

      Reply ↓
  34. AG

    Admittedly I have not yet read it, it´s a long read by a Michael Smith

    The Public Life of Noam Chomsky
    https://znetwork.org/znetarticle/the-public-life-of-noam-chomsky/

    I guess because of his birthday, like the 130th…
    I hope he feels ok in Brazil.

    on Mr. Smith:
    “Michael K. Smith has published three books, “The Greatest Story Never Told – A People’s History of the American Empire, 1945-1999,” “Portraits of Empire,” and “The Madness of King George. His fourth book, “Rise to Empire,” is forthcoming. He holds a B.A. in Psychology and a Master’s Degree in Humanities. He has lived in Central America, Mexico, and Japan. He currently resides in the San Francisco Bay Area.”

    Reply ↓
    1. JCC

      A quote from the article

      Famed American author and wilderness defender Edward Abbey wrote that Chomsky deserved the Nobel Prize for Truth, if only one had existed

      Too true.

      Reply ↓
  37. juno mas

    RE: UnitedHealthCare video

    Excellent summary. She missed another UHC technique: cheating healthcare providers directly.

    I have experienced all of the issues enumerated in the video re: UHC. They were my medigap insurer (until I changed to Cigna; not much better). One of there subsidiaries is UMR.com, which is a third-party administrator of my Nevada state dental benefit plan. UMR uses a ‘chat’ function for online inquiries (phone inquiry is impossibly difficult) that are ‘live’ but guided by AI. Meaning there is no knowledge behind the customer Rep. It takes over 30 days to get approval/compensation for standard dental .

    Oh, and those online services can only be accessed using a Microsoft browser.

    All UHC employees need to watch the Brian Thompson denouement.

    Reply ↓
  38. ilsm

    Anecdote du Jour….

    I have been thinking of the frog and the scorpion alot today.

    US and Erdogan.

    Funding al Qaeda giving them Syria to do what they did in Afghanistan, if it doesn’t go toLibya levels of anarchy.

    Reply ↓
  39. Rolf

    Super informative interview of Ryabkov by Pleitgen — a real interview designed to inform (rather than entertain) listeners, far more than what I had expected from CNN, thank you for including it.

    Reply ↓
    1. AG

      …and thanks for pointing out.

      I see, the son of the old Pleitgen. Didn´t know he is with CNN. Never looked into his work actually.

      A certain understanding of decency might run in the family after all. His old man was warning of what would happen publicly looong time ago.

      Reply ↓
    2. AG

      haha – is it actually possible that Pleitgen is mimicking – unintentionally so – the Amanpour way of pronounciation and emphasis!? Amanpour he – according to Wiki – replaced when necessary.

      Reply ↓
  40. Wukchumni

    In 1932, Grew was appointed by President Herbert Hoover to succeed William Cameron Forbes as the Ambassador to Japan, where he took up his posting on June 6.

    On January 27, 1941, Grew secretly cabled the State Department with rumors passed on by the Peruvian Minister to Japan: “Japan military forces planned a surprise mass attack at Pearl Harbor in case of ‘trouble’ with the United States.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Grew

    Reply ↓
    1. hk

      Attack on Pearl Harbor using carroer aircraft had been planned and expected as soon as aircraft carriers became practical though. There were US exercises during 1930s that purported to show Pearl Harbor to be extremely vulnerable, while there were Japanese exercises that purported to show that such attacks would fail utterly. Given that military exercises are designed to make a political point, they should be viewed with multiple grains of salt, but, at the same time, that admirals on both sides should have used attack on Pearl Harbor to make their points makes one think that it really wasn’t that unthinkable.

      Reply ↓
      1. ArvidMartensen

        Yep, this is right out of the CIA/spook/business/political operative dirty tricks regime change playbook. It has been super successful all over the world. Why change a winning formula?
        I saw this 50 years ago. Then 11-14 years ago
        When you have a government you want to get rid of:

        Create fear. Create lots of fear. Get the media to ramp up the hysterical headlines. You will all die! You will lose your home! Nobody will have jobs!. The Russians are coming! The terrorists are coming! The aliens are among us!
        There is a crisis in the government! There could be fraud! Here! There! Troll through everything the government has ever done or said. Twist it. Shout out every smear and allegation as if it is true. Never let up.
        And you do this on and on and on so that the opponent in power has no breathing space. They no sooner prove that Allegation X is bs, than Allegation Y headlines arrive.

        This is probably what Trump will face for however long he is President. If he isn’t offed.

        Reply ↓
    1. AG

      thanks

      p.s. considering that 9/11 and 12/7 got ca.5500 killed they are making quite a fuss about it. It´s embarrassing.
      They seriously are a whiny bunch of people. Getting a scratch and then complaining and complaining to the end of days while killing millions who are being shrugged off.

      Reply ↓
    2. Glen

      I’ve been watching the “Unauthorized History of the Pacific War Podcast” for quite a while now, and have found it to be very informative (but I’m biased by a lot of years in the USN so beware!). The presenters know their USN history! Here is the start of the series:

      Pearl Harbor–Avoidable or Inevitable-Episode 101
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1fIuC1pp-Q

      Reply ↓
  43. Jason Boxman

    Having to deny reality sounds like a fun test:

    Want a Job in the Trump Administration? Be Prepared for the Loyalty Test. (NY Times via archive.ph)

    That said, to be in Obama’s administration you probably needed to unofficially love you some West Wing, so probably not out of the ordinary. The Executive seems to require a cult-like mentality anymore to be a participant in it.

    The questions went further than just affirming allegiance to the incoming administration. The interviewers asked which candidate the applicants had supported in the three most recent elections, what they thought about the events of Jan. 6, 2021, and whether they believed the 2020 election was stolen. The sense they got was that there was only one right answer to each question.

    I don’t think there’s been any reality-based evidence of 2020 being stolen? Trump failed to go after opaque electronic voting systems, where there’s a case to be made that it is undemocratic. Too bad. If they could get to discovery, you could at least try to get at the source code, which should be public. (We should have paper ballots hand counted in public, though.)

    Reply ↓
  44. hk

    Any news out of Romania? There’s nothing in the news here and the usual suspects aren’t saying too much about what the actual Romanians are doing if anything either.

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      Alex Christoforou was saying that the elections have been canceled and won’t be re-run for another 3 months to give time to discredit the actual winner. Polls were showing if that the run-off election had been held, that he had twice the support of the Globalist female candidate so of course in a democracy you cancel an election whose result you do not like. I bet that the ordinary people of Georgia are taking note what it means to be in the EU.

      Reply ↓
      1. hk

        Yeah, but I was wondering about the mood of the people. Are there protests? Angry announcements by prominent persons (and if so, what kind of people are they, in terms of their public reputations)?

        Reply ↓
        1. The Rev Kev

          The Christians are pulling down all Christmas decorations lest they feel the wrath of the Jihadists and I expect soon that all the women of Syria will have to take up the veil – or else. I expect that Biden, Erdogan and Netanyahu will then congratulate themselves on a job well done. It was not that long ago that Syria re-joined the Arab league so it will be interesting to see if they are booted out or the other Arab states will welcome the new Caliphate of Syria. That will be telling that.

          Reply ↓
          1. hk

            I’m guessing this is in ref to Damascus? This is a stunning development… Truly, big lumps of coal just in time for Christmas. The Biden regime is truly the global Krampus.

            Reply ↓
  45. AG

    re: Oreshnik for Belarus
    short comment by Dmitry Stefanovich:

    https://nitter.poast.org/KomissarWhipla/status/1865303167493124124#m

    “Initial thoughts on possible Oreshnik deployment in Belarus in the second half of 2025.

    1. The decision on a deployment was made after a request of the Belarusian side.
    2. The decision was made based on the security guarantees agreement signed yesterday.
    3. Oreshnik remains part of Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces.
    4. The deployment is planned using infrastructure from the Soviet era, which is not surprising, but the condition of this infrastructure needs to be further assessed. I doubt that this would require minimal expense.
    5. No idea how exactly the BY leadership will choose and convey the targets to SRF missile regiments. It might mean that BY will have advisory vote, some input or influence in determining targets, the final decision-making authority rests with another party.
    6. An even bigger question is how the (N)C3 system will look like with the new IRBMs.
    7. It is true that the power of the warhead is inversely related to the range, the ROK can confirm this.
    8. I hope that the comparison of the results of a group strike using high-precision non-nuclear weapons and that of nuclear weapons meant the ability to hit specific types of targets, rather than the level of destruction each weapon can cause.
    9. It’s worth noting that the deployment is planned for the second half of 2025. Russia has given Donald Trump’s administration about half a year to engage in a constructive dialogue about the “Posr-INF Moratorium”.
    +
    “Now we have an explicit statement from the Deputy Head of BY General Staff that decision to seek Oreshnik IRBM deployment is related to the actions by the US and Germany in deployment of INF-range weapons in Europe:”
    https://nitter.poast.org/KomissarWhipla/status/1865406328568512656#m

    It is odd that on these Twitter discussions I found no one who would say openly what the factory in Dnipro was building.
    May be they would answer in private.

    Reply ↓
  46. AG

    re: Syria

    TWITTER:
    Will Schryver
    @imetatronink
    🤔 I have long been of the opinion that Russia’s Syrian bases represent strategic imperatives for Moscow.

    I am now revisiting that assumption in the context of potential open war between Russia and the US.

    I have not yet reached a conclusion, but I am thinking about it …

    Reply ↓
  47. AG

    re: Syria

    comment on MoA:

    “Vanessa Beeley is a British journalist currently based in Damascus. I understand that, many years ago (perhaps over a decade ago), Beeley sold her house in the UK to fund her trips to Syria and her reporting. I would trust her reporting on the situation in Syria more than I would trust the entire MSM news industry and the concern trolls infesting this comments thread. Beeley writes for Mint Press News and has some association with Patrick Henningsen at 21st Century Wire.”

    Reply ↓
    1. Steve H.

      > Vanessa Beeley, Kevork Almassian, and Prof. Mohammad Marandi join #NewRulesPodcast to talk about the outside powers destabilizing Syria and their motives. (Dec 6)

      x.com/NewRulesGeo/status/1865054774972026994

      Reply ↓
      1. AG

        Thanks.
        And of course she has a Substack.
        I now remember I had encountered her 2 years ago in some discussion but lost sight of her.

        Reply ↓
        1. sarmaT

          Vanessa Beeley also has a Youtube channel that has not been deleted yet, probabaly because it’s too small to attract attention.

          Reply ↓
  48. AG

    re: Syria

    Comments from Martyanov´s blog:

    >>> “Patrick Henningsen:

    “SURPRISE, SURPRISE Turkish troops march into Aleppo, inching towards Erdogan’s ambition of claiming that Aleppo as a ‘Turkish city’—NeoOttomanism on the march, a total abrogation of international law, and them some…”

    >>> “Interesting. Looks like the Syrian Army was told to lay down their arms after a deal struck between Turkiye, Russia and Iran in Doha.
    Syrian Army lays down arms, Assad exits and will presumably live in Russia or Iran, new provisional government takes over.
    The real question is this : who benefits?
    If a deal has been struck between Russia, Iran and Turkiye, to me this means that Russia and Iran got something from it.
    Russia keeps Tartus, for example.
    Iran continues to supply Hezbollah, for example.
    Who knows what else they agreed in order to strike a deal with Erdogan.
    After all they agreed to allow the peaceful transfer to happen, in a situation where they could have prevented it and/or backed Assad with military power.
    Another point – if a deal was made between Moscow, Istanbul and Tehran, we shouldn’t assume that it is in Israel or America’s interests, let alone those of HTS either.
    HTS are terrorist scum, highly factionalised and will start killing each other soon enough. If a deal has been made, they will also be muzzled & won’t do anything to Russia or Iran. I wouldn’t want to be on those US bases & oilfields though.
    As for Turkey. Look Erdogan is a realpolitik scumbag. I can easily see him striking a deal to screw Israel and America, if he got enough out of the deal from Moscow and Tehran. And that’s exactly what he may well have done.
    And lastly, consider Israel. I can see why they’re urgently trying to fortify their defensive lines on the border with Syria. After all, in addition to the Houthi threat to the South, Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, they now face a highly unpredictable ‘Syria’ that could easily be weaponised and turned against Israel – and Iran’s True Promise 3 remains pending.
    Anyway, it is still a very fluid situation, so we can’t make any definitive conclusions. I just think that not enough time and focus is being made about a possible Doha deal, and what that means.”

    >>> “Tim Anderson , former Assoc. Prof, Director of the Centre for Counter Hegemonic Studies & author of The Dirty War on Syria
    “Encouraged by the victory of their alQaeda allies, Israeli tanks have crossed into southern Syria.”

    IDF tanks cross into Syria – report:
    JERUSALEM POST: `Two Israeli tanks crossed into Syria on Monday, according to Israeli media, citing Syrian reports.Acoording to the reports, the tanks positioned themselves near the border town of Kwdana/Kodna, south of Quneitra, which has been the site of several tank battles, most famously in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. This is a developing story.´”

    Reply ↓
      1. Polar Socialist

        Well, Kouros referred to Big Serge who referred to OSINTtechnical X channel, which later added that the video was about an S-400 battery located at Hayluneh, 20 miles south-east of Kheimin, moving towards Tartus.

        That said, it doesn’t really refute the idea that Russian are leaving, but it’s also consistent with the idea that while events unfold, Russians could be merely circling the wagons.

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      2. AG

        Of course it wouldn’t give up the base. As well as “circling the wagons”

        Martyanov’s own latest comment ends with:

        “But as I repeat ad nauseam–Russian bases in Syria ARE NOT there to “defend” Syria, let alone fight the war for Syrians… again. If Syrians do not want to fight for their country, neither does Russia, nor does Iran, as it should be. Is it bad? For Syria it certainly is, for Russia–let’s wait and see. Because Syria for Russia is not a priority.

        Were Russian lives lost in Syria in vain? Absolutely, as far as the Syrian statehood is concerned–it is an undeniable fact and it merely reinforces a well established pattern of backstabbing being one of the major traits of the region. So, we have to wait and see how it plays out for Russia, but it is clear that Russia made a decision not to support official Damascus anymore, but Russia can reinforce her bases in the region if need be. The situation is very fluid and we need to be patient and very cautious in making conclusions before clearer picture emerges.”

        He likes his “ad nauseams”

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        1. Yves Smith Post author

          Martyanov is an extreme Russia cheerleader. Russia is apparently ALREADY pulling out S-400s per Kouros. IF correct, that says Russia expects to lose the air base. PlutoniumKun points out Russia never had enough of a footprint to secure it or the naval base.

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  49. The Rev Kev

    Trump sees to be listening to Macron which is a huge mistake but Trump seems to like him.

    ‘“[Russia] lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine, where close to 600,000 Russian soldiers lay wounded or dead, in a war that should never have started, and could go on forever, Trump stated, claiming that Russia is currently “in a weakened state… because of Ukraine and a bad economy.”

    “Likewise, Zelensky and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness. They have ridiculously lost 400,000 soldiers, and many more civilians. There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin,” the President-elect said, adding that if the conflict is not resolved, “it can turn into something much bigger, and far worse.”’

    https://www.rt.com/news/608952-ukraine-deal-russia-trump/

    Is Trump that thick that he thinks that he can order the Russians into an immediate ceasefire just as they are on the verge of toppling the Zelensky regime and put their trust in US negotiations?

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