2:00PM Water Cooler 1/10/2025

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Brown Thrasher, Audrey Carroll Audubon Sanctuary, Frederick, Maryland, United States. “Very liquid sound to this birds song. Nice. Human voices and Fish crows in background.” Cows, too.

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

  1. New Covid data, Covid and mortality.
  2. LA Palisades Fire: Misinformation.
  3. SEIU joins AFL-CIO.

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

Trump Transition

“Trump discusses his viral moment with Obama” [Politico]. “The president-elect was asked about it later in a Fox News interview from his home in Florida. ‘It did look very friendly, I must say,’ Trump said. ‘I didn’t realize how friendly it looked. I saw it on your wonderful network, just a little while ago before I came in and I said ‘Boy, they look like two people that like each other.’ And we probably do,” he said. Trump didn’t say what he and Obama were talking about in the viral moment. ‘We have little different philosophies, right? I don’t know, we just got along. But I got along with everybody on that. You know we met backstage before we went on, and I thought it was a beautiful service, but we all got along very well.'” • Meanwhile, the lipreader once more–

“Here’s what Trump has to say about that viral exchange with Barack Obama at Jimmy Carter’s funeral” [New York Post]. “Forensic lip reader Jeremy Freeman told The Post Thursday that it’s possible they were wary of cameras being pointed at them as they sat shoulder to shoulder and wanted to appear cordial. Freeman said the two were possibly chatting about international agreements. At one point, Trump leaned toward Obama and said, ‘I’ve pulled out of that. It’s the conditions. Can you imagine that?’ Trump didn’t dive into the specifics of the friendly chat. Obama laughed as Trump added, ‘And after, I will.’ ‘Call me at the foy after, yep,’ Trump said, to which Obama replied, ‘Can you just … it should be good.’ ‘I can’t talk, we have to find a quiet place sometime. This is a matter of importance, and we need to do this outside so that we can deal with it, certainly, today,’ Trump allegedly said as Obama nodded.” • But what the heck is “the foy”? Foy means “feast,” but it’s chiefly Scottish. Something at Trump’s golf course?!” Or Claire Foy? (I thought I had the answer when “FOIA” popped into my head, but that amkes no sense in context.

* * *

“DOGE is dispatching agents across U.S. government” [WaPo]. “Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are sending representatives to agencies across the federal government, four people familiar with the matter said, to begin preliminary interviews that will shape the tech executives’ enormous ambitions to tame Washington’s sprawling bureaucracy. In recent days, aides with the nongovernmental [but not a corporation, not a 501(c)(3), not a private club, so what?] ‘Department [sic] of Government Efficiency’ tied to [which means?] President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team have spoken with staffers at more than a dozen federal agencies, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak with the media. The agencies include the Treasury Department, the Internal Revenue Service and the departments of Homeland Security, Veterans Affairs, and Health and Human Services, the people said.” Spoken under what authority? Elon’s mom? More: “At the same time, Musk and Ramaswamy have significantly stepped up hiring for their new entity [Oh, DOGE is an entity], with more than 50 staffers already working out of the offices of SpaceX, Musk’s rocket-building company, in downtown Washington, two of the people said. DOGE aims to have a staff of close to 100 people in place by Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, they said. While much about DOGE remains unclear [that is, we don’t know under what authority] — including who is paying the salaries of these staffers or exactly how DOGE representatives work with the formal transition team — the agency outreach reflects intensifying efforts by Musk and Ramaswamy to propose what they say will be “drastic” cuts to federal spending and regulations.” • One wonders what the DOGE onboard process is like, and whether, for example, it takes conflict of interest into account.

“Is Elon Musk the most powerful civilian since Rasputin?” [The Telegraph]. “History is scattered with ‘civilians’ for whom self-regard and extreme wealth fed a sense of megalomania that made them think they should, and could, change the political process. Sometimes they managed to stay on the right side of the line of propriety and, by using their wealth to do good works, did great public services. Sometimes their power came through displaying huge moral courage that inspired a following, and not wealth, and they circumvented the political class and changed the world for the better. Often it ended badly, in degrees of humiliation or even death [yikes], as their determination to influence statecraft met resistance or ridicule from those supporting conventional politics. Take, for example, Grigory Rasputin….” • Take Rasputin. Please!

* * *

“Gabbard reverses course on key intel-gathering tool as nomination teeters” [Punchbowl]. “Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii), President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for director of national intelligence, is changing her tune on a key intelligence-gathering authority she once sought to repeal as her Senate confirmation hangs in the balance. Gabbard’s past criticisms of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act have emerged as a central issue in her confirmation process, leaving GOP senators — including some in leadership — increasingly skeptical about the former Democrat’s confirmation prospects. In her first public comments since being nominated, Gabbard told us in an exclusive statement that she now supports Section 702, saying the program is ‘crucial’ and ‘must be safeguarded to protect our nation while ensuring the civil liberties of Americans.’ ;If confirmed as DNI, I will uphold Americans’ Fourth Amendment rights while maintaining vital national security tools like Section 702 to ensure the safety and freedom of the American people,’ Gabbard said. In private meetings, senators are questioning Gabbard about legislation she introduced in 2020 that would repeal Section 702. However, Gabbard now appears to be walking that back, citing Fourth Amendment protections implemented since then to prevent the incidental collection of Americans’ data.” • Looks like some Republicans love spooks just as much as Democrats do.

* * *

“How Trump Came Around to Crypto — and What Crypto Wants in Return” [Bloomberg]. “Trump nominated crypto supporter Paul Atkins to replace Gensler, and that announcement helped Bitcoin climb above $100,000 for the first time. The president-elect nominated David Sacks to the newly created position of artificial intelligence and crypto czar. Trump is also creating a crypto advisory group, made up of backers of the industry. Trump said in a December Truth Social post that Bo Hines will be the executive director of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets, reporting to Sacks. Trump said he plans to have the US government keep rather than sell Bitcoin holdings seized by law enforcement, making these assets the basis of a so-called strategic Bitcoin stockpile. Trump has also said he would like all Bitcoin to be mined in the US; this promise may prove difficult to fulfill due to the reality of decentralized networks and cheaper costs of energy in other parts of the world.” • “Strategic Bitcoin” my Sweet Aunt Fanny.

Lawfare

“Trump sentenced to unconditional discharge in New York hush money case, avoiding jail” [CNBC]. “President-elect Donald Trump was sentenced without any penalties Friday in his New York criminal hush money case, 10 days before his inauguration for a second White House term. Manhattan Judge Juan Merchan sentenced Trump to “unconditional discharge,” meaning no jail, no probation and no fine.” • Entirely appropriate for Hitler!

Democrats en déshabillé

“Opening the DNC’s Black Box” [Micah Sifrey, The American Prospect]. “According to the DNC, there are 448 active members of the national committee, including 200 elected members from 57 states, territories, and Democrats Abroad; members representing 16 affiliate groups; and 73 ‘at-large’ members who were elected as a slate appointed in 2021 by the party chairman, Jaime Harrison. For a party that claims the word ‘democratic’ and insists that it is a champion of transparency and accountability in government, the official roster of these 448 voters is not public. Michael Kapp, a DNC member from California who was first elected to that position by his state party’s executive committee in 2016, told me the list isn’t public ‘because it’s the DNC—it’s a black box.’ He told me that leadership holds tightly to the list to prevent any organizing beyond their control. Today, we’re going to open up the DNC’s black box. The list we are publishing was leaked to me by a trusted source with long experience with the national party. Like Kapp, this person thinks it’s absurd that the party’s roster of voting members is secret. Indeed, since there is no official public list, each of the candidates running for chair and other positions has undoubtedly had to create their own tallies from scratch—making it very likely our list comes from a candidate’s whip operation.” • Anyone we know?

Realignment and Legitimacy

“The Unstoppable Rise of Energy Realism” [Ruy Teixeira, The Liberal Patriot]. “For the last decade, Democrats and the left have ever more eagerly embraced a climate catastrophist narrative on energy policy…. So what have the Democrats gained from their fervent advocacy for climate catastrophism? Not much…. Nor have Democrats been rewarded with a political bonanza for their embrace of climate catastrophism. Quite the contrary. They just lost the presidential election to an opponent who says “drill, baby, drill” and whose priority is cheap, abundant energy—not clean energy…. Can Democrats wean themselves away from climate catastrophism and their obsession with net zero? It could be difficult. Their net zero commitment stems from the extremely high priority placed on this goal by the educated elites and activists who now dominate the party. These elites and activists—unlike working-class voters—believe that nothing is more important than stopping global warming since it is not just a problem, but an ‘existential crisis’ that must be confronted as rapidly as possible to prevent a global apocalypse.” • Much to ponder.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Airborne Transmission

“Science tells us that portable air filters reduce infections. It’s time for public health authorities to make this clear” [Journal of Infection and Public Health]. “Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, Canadian public health advisors and decision-makers have shared conflicted and confusing messages about the effectiveness of portable air filters (PAFs) in controlling the spread of airborne infectious diseases… Diseases such as COVID-19 are transmitted through respiratory particles that contain infectious material. If these particles come in contact with the mucous membranes of a susceptible individual, there is a risk of infection. In general, there is a dose-response relationship—the more infectious material in the air, the greater the risk of infection. Thus, any mitigation measures that remove these particles from the air (or inactivate infectious materials) will reduce the risk of transmission… This science is supported by decades of research and public health and health care practice demonstrating the effectiveness of PAFs in reducing the transmission of airborne diseases…. While evidence demonstrates that filtration reduces concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the air, this research should not have been required by public health authorities before implementation. PAFs, like other engineering interventions such as seat belts, parachutes and bridges, are designed and evaluated according to the laws of physics.” • Savage indictment of public health and hospital infection control,

Morbidity and Mortality

“The future of excess mortality after COVID-19” [Swiss Re Institute]. “Four years on from the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, many countries worldwide still report elevated deaths in their populations. This impact appears generally independent of healthcare systems and population health. This trend is evident even after accounting for shifting population sizes, and the range of reporting mechanisms and death classifications that make inter-country comparisons complex. There is also likely a degree of excess mortality under-reporting…. This represents a potential challenge for Life and Health (L&H) insurance, with potentially several years of elevated mortality claims ahead, depending on how general population trends translate into the insured population. Ongoing excess mortality can have implications for L&H insurance claims and reserves. Excess mortality that continues to exceed current expectations may affect the long-term performance of in-force life portfolios as well as the pricing of new life policies.” And: “Our general population forecasts suggest that excess mortality will gradually tail off by 2033, to 0–3% in the US and 0–2.5% in the UK. In comparison, by our calculation excess mortality in 2023 was in the range of 3–7% for the US, and 5–8% in the UK. Under an optimistic scenario, we find that US and UK pandemic-linked excess mortality would disappear by 2028, reverting to pre-pandemic mortality expectations. Under a pessimistic scenario, we expect excess mortality to remain elevated until 2033, above pre-pandemic expectations.” • Handy chart:

“Mortality in First Eight Months of 2024 2% Higher Than Predicted” [Actuaries Digital]. Australia. The Abstract:

In summary

  • For the first eight months of 2024, against a baseline that includes anticipated COVID-19 deaths:
    • total mortality was 2% higher than predicted;
    • COVID-19 mortality was 70% higher than predicted;
    • Non-COVID respiratory mortality was 8% higher than predicted, with pneumonia deaths 14% higher; and
    • these outcomes are all statistically significant.
  • There have been five deaths from COVID-19 for every death from influenza.
  • Mortality from non-respiratory causes has been close to predicted.

Elite Maleficence

Mandy Cohen visits Nassau County:

I’m happy Cohen gave wastewater testing some needed publicity, but this would have been a good time to wear a mask as a sign of resistance to Nassau County’s anti-masking ordinance.

* * *

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC December 30 Last week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC December 21 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC January 4

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data January 9: National [6] CDC Janurary 9, 2005:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens January 6: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic January 4:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC December 23: Variants[10] CDC December 23

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC January 4: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC January 4:

LEGEND

1) for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Seeing more red and more orange, but nothing new at major hubs.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) A little uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely jumped.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward trend since, well, Thanksgiving.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Unemployment Rate” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment rate in the United States went down to 4.1% in December of 2024 from 4.2% in the previous month, below market expectations of 4.2%.”

* * *

Manufacturing: “FAA says up to 574 Boeing 767 aircraft may require landing gear inspections” [Aerotime]. “The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has announced that up to 574 Boeing 767 aircraft may require landing gear inspections as part of an Airworthiness Directive (AD). The AD, issued on January 8, 2025, raised concerns over landing gear on US-registered 767-200s, 767-300s and 767-300 Freighters following an incident during maintenance. According to the FAA, the AD was ‘prompted by a report of a main landing gear (MLG) collapse event following maintenance where a grinder was operating outside of its input parameters, resulting in possible heat damage to the outer cylinder of the MLG.'”

Manufacturing: “Airbus Tops Rival Boeing with 766 Jet Deliveries in 2024” [Inc]. “Airbus delivered 766 jets in 2024 and looked certain to maintain leadership of the jetmaking industry for a sixth year as arch-rival Boeing recovers cautiously from a prolonged internal crisis, company data showed.” But importantly: “Aerospace supply chains have been under pressure due in part to an exodus of experienced workers during the pandemic, with aviation competing with other sectors to recruit new labour.”

Tech: “Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01” [Rodney Brooks]. Fun stuff. Here is a handy chart of failed predictions for robot cars:

Legend: Dates in parens: When prediction was made. Dates in blue: When prediction will come true. Pink shading: Wrong prediction. Orange arrow: retraction.

And the kicker:

Pro tip: Think about this history of industry prognostications about fully autonomous driving being just around the corner when you read today’s prognostications about LLMs taking jobs, en masse, in the next couple of years, or humanoid robots being dirt cheap and being able to learn how to do any human manual task real real soon now. You know you have seen this movie before…

Very much worth reading in full (The author is Panasonic Professor of Robotics emeritus at MIT).

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 28 Fear (previous close: 32 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 33 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jan 10 at 3:28:04 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

Thank you, Mr. Presidents:

Lord knows I hold no brief for California Democrats (“Everything is like CalPERS”). But this is so over-the-top my tendency is to discount any Republican coverage of the California fires to zero.

“California wildfires: Police shoot down celebrities floating arson theories” [FOX]. “‘THERE IS an ARSONIST here in LA,’ actor Henry Winkler wrote on Wednesday on X. ‘May you be beaten you unrecognizable !!! The pain you have caused !!!’ Actress Alison Sweeney simply responded, ‘agreed.’ Singer Chris Brown took to his Instagram stories on Thursday and wrote, ‘Someone starting these fires. S— don’t add up.’ ‘Dancing with the Stars’ pro Peta Murgatroyd shared a tweet that was originally posted by political and cultural media personality Xaviaer DuRousseau that reads: ‘LOS ANGELES / SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THERE ARE AT LEAST FIVE MEN GOING AROUND IN SKI MASKS STARTING FIRES. KEEP AN EYE OUT.” But: “Despite the various claims, the Los Angeles Police Department told Fox News Digital, “We have not received any reports of arson.'” • I don’t know why we’d believe actors on this, any more than, say, mainstream economists (of whom, see below). Then again–

“Homeless man with ‘flamethrower’ busted on suspicion of arson near LA’s Kenneth Fire after residents detain him” [New York Post]. “One witness told Fox 11 that the suspect was ‘very focused on moving forward’ with what the described as being more like a blowtorch. ‘He was like, ‘I can’t stop. I can’t stop. I’m not putting this down. I’m doing this,” the witness said. ‘And we’re like, ‘We can’t be doing that right now.'” So a citizens arrest is performed: “Soon after the suspect was taken into custody, the Los Angeles Police Department confirmed it was investigating the Kenneth Fire as likely arson. ‘At this time, that’s what we believe. It’s being investigated as a crime,’ LAPD Senior Lead Officer Sean Dinse initially told KTLA. The major crimes squad was brought in because he was ‘a possible arson suspect,’ LAPD Assistant Chief Dominic Choi told reporters in an update later Friday. However, the homeless man had so-far only been arrested on a felony parole violation because ‘there was not enough probable cause to arrest this person on arson or suspicion on arson,’ Choi said. ‘This investigation is ongoing, however,’ he stressed, thanking the citizens who tackled him and called it in. It was not immediately clear what felony the suspect, who has still yet to be publicly identified, was on parole for.” • So, the Kenneth fire, and I imagine that Winkler, et al., are thinking of the Palisades fire. That said, my priors did kick in. Reinforced as they constantly are….

“Economists Are in the Wilderness. Can They Find a Way Back to Influence?” [New York Times]. • Never have I felt happier to know of Betteridge’s Law.

Class Warfare

“The Labor Movement Just Notched Two Big Wins” [The New Republic]. “One so seldom has the opportunity to report good news about labor unions that when two good things happen in the space of 24 hours that’s a triumph. The first is a rebuke to the incoming Trump administration. The second is an unacknowledged favor to it (but, more importantly, to the nation as well). Item One is that the Service Employees International Union, reversing a bad decision 20 years ago to disaffiliate with the AFL-CIO, is rejoining the labor federation. Even Andy Stern, who as SEIU president took the union out of the AFL-CIO and sought (in the end, unsuccessfully) to build a rival federation called Change to Win with the Teamsters and five smaller unions, said Wednesday that this is ‘an appropriate time to unite SEIU’s strength with other unions.’ The move will expand AFL-CIO membership from nearly 13 million to nearly 15 million. (Change to Win was a bust. It lost most of its affiliates, stopped calling itself a labor federation, and now operates as something called the Strategic Organizing Center.) Item Two is that the International Longshoremen’s Association, or ILA, which represents dockworkers on the East Coast and in the Gulf of Mexico, reached a deal on a new contract, averting a second dockworker strike. The first strike, in October, lasted three days before a wage deal was reached under heavy pressure on management from the Biden White House, with further negotiations postponed until after the presidential election.”

“Inmates Can Make Up Nearly A Third Of Those Fighting California Fires” [Forbes]. “While the 13th Amendment ended slavery in the United States, a loophole allows people convicted of crimes to be forced to work for public or private enterprises. In this case, those tasked with firefighting volunteer for those positions and must meet certain criteria. They are not assigned without their consent. Their pay scale was doubled in 2023, and depending on the skill level and the task assigned, they either receive $0.16 to $0.74 an hour or a maximum day rate of $5.80 to $10.24. Most of their lunches consist of a simple sandwich—two pieces of white bread with a few slices of bologna—plus an apple. Their daily food budget of approximately $4 per day is hardly enough to sustain them for their high volume of manual labor. Incarcerated firefighters have some of the highest injury rates among all prison workers and are four times more likely to sustain injuries compared to other firefighters. Also, they work some of the longest hours and have some of the hardest tasks to execute. They don’t shoot water hoses; they use powered chainsaws and manual hand tools, such as axes, with the goal of starving the fire of fuel to continue to burn.” But: “During the most recent U.S. election, California voters rejected Proposition 6, a ballot measure that would have banned forced labor in state prisons.” • What really bugs me is that the prisoners, having paid their debt to society are then barred from becoming firefighters. That’s insane.

News of the Wired

“Scientists mystified by massive structures found deep beneath the Pacific Ocean” [StudyFinds]. “Miles beneath the Pacific Ocean, in a region of Earth’s mantle where conventional wisdom says nothing unusual should exist, scientists have discovered something extraordinary. Using innovative technology to analyze seismic waves, researchers have identified massive structures that challenge fundamental theories about how our planet formed and evolved. It’s as if we’ve discovered a new geological continent – not on Earth’s surface, but deep within it.” • R’lyeh?

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From JennyBesserit:

JennyBesserit writes: “Fall vines, Portland, Maine.” Since readers like yesterday’s red leaves so much….

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. Material here is Lambert’s, and does not express the views of the Naked Capitalism site. If you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn’t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I’m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:

Here is the screen that will appear, which I have helpfully annotated:

If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

This entry was posted in Guest Post, Water Cooler on by .

About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

28 comments

  1. Wukchumni

    Now, now Lambert…

    You’re getting a wee bit testy over Bitcoin, and I’m happy to announce the launch of Bitchcoin, whose value goes up everytime somebody caterwauls in regards to crypto, online

    Reply
        1. Skippy

          The Strategic Oil Reserve is based on a primary commodity which underpins the entire economy from shocks external and internal e.g. Strategic.

          Bitcoin and all crypto assets imo could all go poof tomorrow and not effect the economy save the loss of fiat first used to buy it or the Cap Ex to mine/administer it [malinvestment]. It should be noted those that promoted it in the early days and even more so now have a strong ideological bias, furthermore hardcore Techbros/Fintech sorts. All of which is just another artificial neoliberal bottle neck in extracting rents off the unwashed via balance sheet buffing for more cheap credit which to funnel back into juicing financial asset prices self licking ice-cream cone thingy.

          Yet none of it is used to satisfy contracts which is the whole purpose of currency, which then translates to economic activity.

          Lets not forget Milton Friedman and his mobs influences which enabled so much, share holder value, Monetarism, rational agent models, et al. How that resulted in unregulated derivatives going pop, which had huge exposure to the REMBS paper, and the early days where Friedman got caught writing propaganda for the RE developer industry …. how Austrian and Libertarian economic ideological sorts promoted suburbia as the utopian human construct … looks at Calif now, post Helene, etc.

          Basically anything that comes out of this camps deductive processes is against the average citizans self interest.

          Reply
      1. mrsyk

        Maybe money laundering at the federal level? “Integrating Black-Ops with the Treasury”? Why not, seems to be a natural progression in this timeline.

        Reply
        1. skippy

          Considering the mindset and track records of the people pushing this agenda I am confidant a few will win and most will lose. History is very clear about how things go when elites party/frolic whilst the unwashed play the squid game.

          Reply
  2. aleph_0

    Peter Thiel’s oped in the FT makes for some interesting reading. I find it even hard to describe; it’s worth slogging through just for some insight into the mind of a man who wields incredible influence in the US and UK and is about to wield more.

    As of now, I didn’t need a subscription to see it. Apologies if it doesn’t work that way for all.

    Reply
    1. lyman alpha blob

      Hard to take all he’s saying at face value given what Palantir does. Will he shine the light on his own sins?

      Reply
  3. Norton

    Relatives in LA say that broadcast news reports cover an arson suspect for the Kenneth fire. TV coverage also had interviews with people who saw looters attempting to gain access to houses. Packs on scooters for quick getaways.

    Reply
  4. Sub-Boreal

    “Hydroclimate whiplash” (open access)

    Excerpts:

    Many such rapid dry-to-wet and wet-to-dry transitions have occurred across the globe — often posing formidable threats to human health and public safety, food and water security, and infrastructure (Fig. 1 and Supplementary Information). The impacts of such hydroclimate volatility are often more severe than those associated with drought or flood events in isolation; the compounding effects of transitions can increase the physical magnitude of resulting shocks as well as the odds that adaptive responses are overwhelmed by the rapid succession of opposing hydroclimate extremes across a wide range of geographies. During the winter of 2022–2023, for example, a prolonged sequence of heavy precipitation events following several years of severe drought and wildfires in California led to extensive infrastructure and property damage from widespread flooding and hundreds of shallow landslides, culminating in disaster declarations in 40 of the state’s 58 counties; in a single 3-week period, nine consecutive atmospheric river storms dropped record-breaking precipitation, and; seasonal accumulations were ultimately the greatest on record in central portions of the state. In East Africa, torrential rains during the 2023 autumn harvest season followed five consecutive seasons of drought between 2020 and 2023 (which itself brought food insecurity to over 20 million people), destroying thousands of hectares of crops and displacing more than 2 million people from their homes.

    Thus, hydroclimate whiplash is projected to increase in most global regions in a manner that scales with rising global mean temperature. These whiplash changes are likely to be larger in magnitude over land compared with ocean given that evaporative demand extremes can be greatly amplified via land-surface/soil-moisture feedbacks, and also to have greater impacts given the sensitivity of human systems and the terrestrial biosphere to extremes in freshwater availability.

    Increases in hydroclimate volatility have the potential to impact various socio-environmental systems. For instance, rapid transitions between extreme wet and extreme dry can impact water quality via harmful algal blooms (when hot and dry conditions follow a burst of nutrient-rich run-off into a reservoir during heavy rains) or the influx of excess organic and/or mineral content (when heavy rains following severe drought and/or elevated wildfire activity wash silt, ash or woody debris into bodies of water). This degradation has resulting influences on freshwater ecosystems and water security. Hydroclimate volatility also has a bearing on food security through decreased plant productivity, crop failures, damage to agricultural land or displacement of agricultural workers, livestock mortality or decreased grazing viability, access disruptions and pest outbreaks. Rapid hydrological shifts further present a public health threat when hydroclimate volatility brings about population surges in potential disease vectors such as rodents or mosquitoes, or increases in pathogen-specific overlap of favourable temperature and moisture conditions; when water sources become overly concentrated and/or contaminated during very low or very high run-off conditions (elevating the risk of water borne diseases); or when the life cycle of soil-borne fungal pathogens depends on the alternation between wet soils for growth and later transition to dry soil conditions for aerosolization. Geophysical effects such as landslides and cracking of clay-rich soils from expansion and contraction might also occur, in turn potentially damaging buildings and water and transportation infrastructure

    Reply
      1. Elijah SR

        SEIU is a major player with big numbers, I think it’s definitely better to have them formally in league with the other big hitters, especially UAW. Only good things can happen from being closer to labor militancy.

        As far as I know, SEIU has a bad reputation for being staff-driven and contract focused, rather than building any worker power. Most organizers I know want nothing to do with them. That may be changing, though, they were interested in cooperating with the UAW’s call to contract alignment. Maybe there’s hope yet…

        Reply
  5. Panduh

    CA from our local news coverage consensus is forming that Kenneth looks to be arson, Eaton was likely a power line, Palisades started in the backyard of a house but the cause/intent is unknown.

    The Palisades was unique for how many small fires made up the initial devastation. The wind was pushing embers miles at high speed. I recommend looking at the LAFD gis map: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=2a2f0086b9704121bef9be969d631d54

    Reply
    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      Thanks very much. I vaguely recall that the directiono of the wind mattered a lot, and this time the worst case scenario happened.

      For example, if the wind blows across the canyons, that’s much more controllable than wind blowing down the canyons. Is this correct?

      P.S. That’s a really good map. Thanks!

      Reply
  6. Robert S

    News of the Wired

    R’lyeh?

    Lambert, this may be the funniest thing I’ve read in a while. Thank you for the chortle!

    Reply
    1. Swamp Yankee

      I agree, Late Introvert, that was my first thought. It could be the first syllable of “foyer” — “foy”, and Trump dropped “-er”, either intentionally or unintentionally; often the foyer at public events can be a place for a more private conversation.

      That’s my initial thought, at least.

      Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *