2:00PM Water Cooler 1/16/2025

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Patient readers, brunch ran disgracefully late today, and so I will try to deliver a not-disgracefully thin Water Cooler, but it won’t be immediately. In the meantime, talk amongst yourselves! –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Brown Thrasher, Sully Woodlands, Fairfax, Virginia, United States. I swear I hear an airplane, somewhere in the mix.

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In Case You Might Miss…

1. Treasury nominee Bessent under fire?
2. RedNote’s moment to pass?
3. Infantry in battle.

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

Biden Administration

“Why Biden May Matter” [David Leonhardt, New York Times]. “one major part of Biden’s agenda has a decent chance of surviving. It was the idea that animated much of the legislation he signed — namely, that the federal government should take a more active role in both assisting and regulating the private sector than it did for much of the previous half-century. This idea has yet to acquire a simple name. The historian Gary Gerstle has called it the end of the neoliberal order. Felicia Wong and her colleagues at the Roosevelt Institute, a liberal think tank, have used the term ‘a new economics.’ Jake Sullivan, a top Biden adviser, has referred to it as a new consensus. I’ve described it as part of a new centrism. The philosophy didn’t originate with Biden, but he meaningfully shifted the country toward it, first as a candidate in 2020 and then as president. He moved the Democratic Party away from decades of support for trade liberalization and imposed tariffs on China. He pursued an industrial policy to build up sectors important to national security (like semiconductors) or future prosperity (like clean energy). And his administration was more aggressive about restraining corporate power than any in decades, blocking mergers, cracking down on ‘junk fees’ and regulating drug prices…. Trump will surely undo major parts of the Biden agenda, especially on climate change and some aspects of corporate regulation. In other ways, though, Trump is part of the shift away from neoliberalism. He romped through the 2016 Republican primaries partly because he was more hostile to trade, China and cuts to Medicare and Social Security than other Republican politicians. Some of Trump’s second-term nominees, including for labor secretary and head of the Justice Department’s antitrust division, are hardly small-government neoliberals. Neither is Vice President-elect JD Vance.”

Trump Transition

“Treasury pick Scott Bessent and Trump transition team deny allegations that he avoided taxes” [NBC News]. That makes him smart. More: “In a new memo obtained by NBC News, Senate Finance Democratic tax staff found that Scott Bessent avoided over $950,000 of self-employment taxes. In a review of the Treasury Secretary nominee’s tax returns from 2021, 2022, and 2023 and his financial disclosure form, the committee found that Bessent avoided paying $950,182 of SECA taxes (a tax on net earnings from self-employment as part of financing the social security and medicare trust funds) and SALT taxes (state and local). Despite IRS and Tax Court rulings that would require Bessent to pay SECA taxes, Bessent told the committee he maintains his position, which is that he was not liable for SECA taxes on income earned through his hedge fund, Key Square Group LP, since he was a ‘state law limited partner.’ The committee argued Bessent was ‘actively involved’ in his partnership at the hedge fund, and therefore, violated the Department of Treasury’s own policies.” • I can’t speak to the tax issues involved. But surely this is for the IRS to decide, not the Committee?

* * *

“‘Everyone’s trying to kiss the ring’: Trump’s inauguration devours corporate cash, smashing records” [Politico]. “Not only are companies giving far larger amounts than they did to Trump’s first inauguration — when they didn’t have a firm grasp of how to handle misgivings about the mercurial politician — they’re doing so in a far more public fashion, announcing the donations months before they have to be reported to federal regulators. ‘The stigma of a Trump donation, which was out there to some degree eight years ago, is no longer there,” said Brian Ballard, a longtime fundraiser for Trump who’s raised money for the Presidential Inaugural Committee. ‘Who knows what’s going to happen two months from now? But for today, up and down, corporate America is solidly pro-Trump.'”

* * *

“Rep. Rick Crawford expected to serve as House Intelligence chair” [Politico]. “Johnson on Wednesday removed former Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio) in a move that stunned even some Republicans on the panel. Now he has told people that he intends to replace him with [Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Ark.)], a low-key veteran of the Intel panel… Crawford is the most senior Republican on the committee and viewed as a less hawkish pick than Turner. He also holds more MAGA-friendly credentials — representing a deep red district in Arkansas and voting against Ukraine aid last year…. But Turner enraged the hard right over the chaotic reauthorization of a sweeping surveillance bill last year…. Johnson, who has sole discretion in choosing the panel’s chair, cited Trump as a reason for the ouster.” • Hmm.

Realignment and Legitimacy

[sigh]:

allegedly they're dividing the rednote servers into mainland and foreigner next week and people are making really sad posts about it :( pic.twitter.com/668O9Yfd6b

— 🥉 Pipkin Pippa 🔌🐰 Phase-Connect (@pipkinpippa) January 15, 2025

For a brief shining moment, two hitherto entirely unmixed social media populations — American, Chinese — spontaneously interacting was the biggest story going (and gave me some hope for humanity). It couldn’t last, sadly. (How unfortunate that there was no major American politician with the ability to interpret — maybe for the strategic purposes of the Democrat party, if any — the interactions between Chinese and American teenagers on social media for a wider audience, based on repeated, direct experience. Oh, wait….)

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Look for the Helpers

CR box makers:

Though it’s amazing we’re still making CR boxes by hand, five years into the pandemic. What a market failure!

Maskstravaganza

They recommend when they should mandate. Nevertheless:

The Maryland Department of Health is re-recommending universal masking among other precautions due to rising hospitalizations for COVID and flu.

If you're in MD and have trouble with doctors masking you can inform them of this new recommendation. pic.twitter.com/QYsN840epg

— Covid Caution – XEC, KP.3.1.1, LP.8.1, MC.1, LF.7 (@CovidCaution) January 16, 2025

Vaccines

I think[T]hese arrows are moving in the wrong direction (except for Alaska, Connecticut, and Maine, good job):

Just incredibly depressing that humans spent so long trying to invent cures to diseases, succeeded against the odds, and that progress is now being erased by a small number of people spreading misinformation. pic.twitter.com/Fq0Jn5AiI3

— Michael Thomas (@curious_founder) January 14, 2025

Measles are the “M” in MMR. In other words, the basics are under assault, not exotics recently added to the schedule.

“They were warned; Picks and Shovels Chapter One” [Cory Doctorow, Pluralistic]. “[I]t’s natural and right that in the world, there will be people who want to revisit the received wisdom and best practices for how we live our lives, regulate our economy, and organize our society. But not a license to simply throw out the systems we rely on. Sure, maybe they’re outdated or unnecessary, but maybe not. That’s where ‘Chesterton’s Fence” comes in:

Let us say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected across a road. The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, “I don’t see the use of this; let us clear it away.” To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: “If you don’t see the use of it, I certainly won’t let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it.”

In other words, it’s not enough to say, “This principle gets in the way of something I want to do, so let’s throw it out because I’m pretty sure the inconvenience I’m experiencing is worse than the consequences of doing away with this principle.” You need to have a theory of how you will prevent the harms the principle protects us from once you tear it down…. When RFK Jr kills your kids with measles or permanently disables them with polio, he doesn’t get to say “I was just inquiring as to the efficacy of a longstanding measure, as is right and proper.” He was told why the vaccine fence was there, and he came up with objectively very stupid reasons why that didn’t matter, and then he killed your kids. He was warned.” And the same with Bill Clinton and Glass-Steagall. Ditto crytpo.

Transmission: Covid

About models:

This is why I give preference to data series that have run a long time, ideally since the beginning of the pandemic: They make the baseline clear. But more importantly, with Gregory, I deprecate being reactive (this goes for personal practice and for infection control). Establish your protocol and stick to it. If — and by “if” I mean “when” —

Infection Control

HOCL sounds really interesting; I wasn’t aware:

I just learned some cool facts:

Old news:
Hypochlorous acid (HOCl) is a highly effective antimicrobial agent with a neutral to slightly acidic pH (4-6), making it safer for skin and surfaces while maintaining broad-spectrum activity. In contrast, bleach is highly alkaline (pH… https://t.co/dOLmDqQVxW

— Dr. Sean Mullen (@drseanmullen) January 16, 2025

And this long thread:

See the highlighted portion. Nukit is a good account, and granted, they are quoting the claims of another, but aren’t some of the highlighted claims a little over-enthusiastic? Like “tumor suppression”?

* * *

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC January 10	Last week[2] CDC (until next week):
Variants [3] CDC December 21	Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC January 4
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data January 14:	National [6] CDC Janurary 9:
Positivity
National[7] Walgreens January 13:	Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic January 4:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC December 23:	Variants[10] CDC December 23
Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC January 4:	Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC January 4:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Seeing more red and more orange, but nothing new at major hubs.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) A little uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely jumped.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward trend since, well, Thanksgiving.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 14,000 from the previous week to 217,000 in the period ending January 11th, 2024, firmly above market expectations of 210,000 to mark a sharp bounce from the upwardly revised, 11-month low touched in the first week of January.”

Manufacturing: “United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US climbed to 44.3 in January 2025, its highest since April 2021, from a revised reading of -10.9 in December and better than market forecasts of -5. This is the index’s largest monthly increase since June 2020….”

Retail: “U.S. Retail Sales” [Trading Economics]. “Retail sales in the US increased 0.4% month-over-month in December 2024, the least in four months, compared to an upwardly revised 0.8% rise in November and below forecasts of 0.6%. Despite the slowdown, the figures continue to point to a robust consumer spending.”

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Tech: I guess Boeing’s guy wasn’t available?

Suchir Balaji worked as an engineer for Sam Altman building AI, until he decided that Altman was committing crimes. Balaji became a whistleblower, and soon after was found dead in his apartment. California authorities claim it was suicide. Crime scene photos clearly show a… pic.twitter.com/bVbiP8zShy

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) January 15, 2025

It’s so hard to find decent help these days!

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 30 Fear (previous close: 29 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 30 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jan 16 at 1:44:27 PM ET.

Musical Interlude

Prince?!

Prince performing a Led Zeppelin classic, Whole Lotta Love, live At The Aladdin, Las Vegas, in 2002.

He was an incredible musician and a very underrated guitar player! pic.twitter.com/fMhhYkRfQi

— Rock'n Roll of All (@rocknrollofall) January 14, 2025

Zeitgeist Watch

“The Governance Failures That Fed the Los Angeles Wildfires” [Wall Street Journal]. “There’s no disputing Mother Nature’s primary role in the devastation. The Santa Ana winds responsible for the wildfires begin north and east of Los Angeles in the Great Basin, which includes large sections of Utah and Nevada. As those winds travel south and west, coursing through the canyons and arroyos of Southern California, they drop in elevation and become warmer and dryer. This is nature, not man-made climate change, at work. It’s been happening since long before Los Angeles was settled. What’s changed isn’t the predictability of the fires but rather the priorities and competence of those responsible for keeping people safe. Has the underbrush that fuels the fires been cleared? Have the forests been thinned? Are the reservoirs full and operational?… By Mr. Simon’s estimates, there are two schools of thought on what’s playing out in his state right now. “One is that this was really unusual, and nobody could have foreseen it. And the other school of thought, which I’m a member of, is that you can’t have a whole reservoir that is completely dry in a highly populated area with a long history of fires. There’s a public-policy failure somewhere here. There’s a direct connection between the negligence at the governmental level—state, local, whatever—and a lot of human suffering.” The bigger problem, however, might be the insularity of the state’s political establishment. Mr. Newsom and Ms. Bass are liberal Democrats, as are most of the lawmakers in Los Angeles and Sacramento. Republicans haven’t won a statewide race in California since 2006″ • Reading this carefully, I can agree with all of it except. This is nature, not man-made climate change. First, the real estate industry, which sites and soecs the houses, isn’t part of “nature” (modulo an extremely holistic definition of nature). Second, I don’t think anything is exempt from “man-made climate change”, which might, for example, cause an out-of-season Santa Ana. But at least we’ve gor some thinking in layers, even if from the son of William Simon (Nixon’s Treasury secretary). This seems not to be paywalled, and it’s worth a read.

Guillotine Watch

“Neil Gaiman denies sexual assault allegations: ‘I don’t accept there was any abuse'” [Los Angeles Times]. “Eight women accused the 64-year-old British scribe of assault, abuse and coercion in an article published Monday” (posted here). Gaiman: ” I’m far from a perfect person, but I have never engaged in non-consensual sexual activity with anyone. Ever.” • On reconsideration, the angle I came away with from the Monday article was how very badly the rather rich Gaiman and his wife Amanda Palmer treated the servants; withheld payment, prpmises not kept…. “They were careless people, Tom and Daisy.”

“Billionaire Robert Miller accused of being secret pedophile who preyed on girls as young as 11” [Daily Mail]. “Robert Miller, 81, allegedly paid minors for sex between 1994 and 2006 and recruited them with the assistance of employees from his company, Future Electronics. This week, Quebec Superior Court Judge Catherine Piché ruled that a class action launched by three of Miller’s alleged victims could proceed. ‘These extremely serious acts allegedly took place over several years, when they were between the ages of 11 and 17,’ she wrote in her decision, according to CBA. ‘The court should not, at this stage, consider the merits of the dispute and it should take the facts as proven, unless they appear improbable or manifestly inaccurate.’ The class action has been launched by three women who allege they were victims of Miller, and also targets Future Electronics. If the class action is successful, Miller could be ordered to hand over up to $150million in damages. Lawyer for the plaintiffs Jeff Orenstein told the court he’d been approached by 51 alleged victims.” • 51? That’s a lot. So is 8.

News of the Wired

Thread from historian Alexander Burns on his new book, Infantry in Battle, 1733-1783:

See the highlighted portion at the end. I wonder if that’s true in Ukraine today? Or, for that matter, Gaza?

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From mrsyk:

Mrsyk writes: “This plum tomato has been frozen through a couple times now. What a color.”

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