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2:00PM Water Cooler 1/8/2025

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Brown Thrasher, Powhatan State Park, Powhatan, Virginia, United States. “This bird was singing from the same perch at 7:00 when I arrived; this recording was made at 10:00. It was still singing when I left.”

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

  1. LA Palisades Fire: This is fine.
  2. Trump’s pivot to the Northern Hemisphere.
  3. More weirdness with the Vegas Tesla explosion.

* * *

Look for the Helpers

This has happened to me:

And then I paid it forward as well. Readers?

* * *

My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (“Helpers” in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza).

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

Trump Transition

“Trump Imagines New Sphere of U.S. Influence Stretching From Panama to Greenland” [Wall Street Journal]. Trump’s presser: “President-elect Donald Trump’s calls to take control of Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal reflect his fascination with a 21st-century version of an old idea—that great powers should carve out spheres of influence and defend their economic and security interests by imposing their will on smaller neighbors. In a press conference Tuesday, Trump outlined a second-term foreign policy agenda that rests not on global alliances and free trade but on economic coercion and unilateral military might, even against allies. With the Panama Canal and Greenland, he suggested he could use force to take them over. With Canada, he suggested he would hit the U.S.’s northern neighbor with extreme tariffs, leaving it no choice but to submit to annexation. ‘Canada and the United States, that would really be something,’ Trump said. ‘You get rid of that artificially drawn line and you take a look at what that looks like and it would also be much better for national security.’ Taking control of Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal through military or economic force would be a dramatic departure from decades of U.S. foreign policy as pursued by presidents of both parties.” • This leaves out Mexico, oddly. I’ll have more in a bit, but at first glance, I would speculate that Trump knows he’s got to feed his rabid dog — the national security establishment — some meat. Otherwise, he will be its meat. Where is the meat to be found? Europe? Clearly not; Ukraine is lost. The Middle East? Letting them kill each other is one thing; boots on the ground are another. The pivot to Asia? With what? That leaves — and this would make James Monroe very happy — the north American hemisphere. Also, it may even be that Trump doesn’t like to get people killed, and (modulo Mexico), seizing one vassal’s territory (Greenland), invading Panama (we’ve done it once), and working on splitting the Canadian Federation looks a lot less gruesome than a war on the Pacific Rim, say. Who knows? Could be just a headfake, though Trump did mention Greenland in 2020. Commentary:

[TRUMP, thinking]: “McFaul says “destroy NATO like that’s a bad thing. They don’t pay their bills, do they?”]

“To Avoid Fighting Large Conflicts Trump Is Creating Smaller Ones” [Moon of Alabama]. Trump’s presser: “Trump has thereby rejected the three potential conflicts, with Russia, China and Iran, that were long leading the headlines. He likely perceives that there is nothing to win in these. But as he has to provide some fodder for the media as well as for his MAGA followers he is instead coming up with new conflicts which might even turn out to be winnable.” See above; I agree that the media and MAGA need “fodder,” but I think the national security establishment — The Blob — needs “fodder” most of all. More: “It reminds of Ronald Reagan who created minor conflicts, like in Grenada, to be free to make deals with the Soviet ‘evil empire’ Union…. Trump wants to avoid the larger potential conflicts as they are too difficult to manage and win. He is instead creating his own small conflicts right next to the U.S. backyard. It is a nice trick and it may even see some success.” • I don’t love Trump, and I didn’t like Reagan either. But at least Reagan didn’t get into a proxy war with a nuclear power.

Handy map:

To be fair, neither I nor b give an account of where an invasion of Mexico fits into this picture (see Nick’s useful post here). Here, I would speculate that Trump has to “big stick” somebody for credibility’s sake, and Mexican Drug Lords are an unsympathetic target. A proper invasion of Mexico would look like the Philippine-American War of 1898. Or Vietnam. No doubt there are plenty of Blobbists who would enjoy that, but I don’t think Trump needs to throw them meat…

“Fetterman compares Trump’s Greenland talk to Louisiana Purchase” [The Hill]. “‘There’s a lot of talk about Greenland, for example, and … there’s a lot of freak-outs and of course, I would never support taking it by force,’ Fetterman said. He continued, noting it would be a ‘responsible conversation’ to discuss acquisition, including ‘just buying it out.’ ‘If anyone thinks that’s bonkers, it’s like, well, remember the Louisiana Purchase?’ Fetterman said.” • Is he wrong?

The tech bro angle:

* * *

O Canada! I shouldn’t really post this…

… but frame 4 made me laugh out loud (though is there some local color I should be aware of here? Canadian readers?)

* * *

“Donald Trump shares video of Jeffrey Sachs accusing Benjamin Netanyahu of warmongering” [JFeed]. Certainly not on my Bingo card! And: “Trump’s decision to post this video, assuming he listening to the video rather than just reading the text, which makes no mention of Netanyahu, points to some possibly serious tensions between Israel and the incoming administration regarding whether or not to use military force against Iran for fear it would lead to a general war.” • Or maybe it’s simpler. Perhaps “Never sh*t a sh*tter” is a motto Trump knows and believes. Anyhow, here’s Trump’s post from Truth Social:

Haaretz, though later, has the better headline–

“‘A Deep, Dark Son of a Bitch’: Trump Posts Video of Historian Criticizing Netanyahu” [Haaretz]. ” U.S. President-elect Donald Trump shared a video of contentious economics professor Jeffrey Sachs describing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as “a deep, dark son of a bitch” responsible for orchestrating U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Trump’s sharing of the video on Truth Social highlights the President-elect’s questionable sources of information on policy matters and his role in amplifying contentious historical interpretations via his unprecedented platform.” • What an idiotic comment by Haaretz, throwing Jeffrey Sachs into the “questionable sources of information” bucket, code for anti-semitic, though Haaretz leave it to others to unpack the code: “Sachs, an outspoken critic of the Israeli government, recently earned criticism from senior Israeli officials like Diaspora Affairs Minister, Amichai Chikli, following his appearance on the Tucker Carlson Show. Chikli implied that Sachs was part of a guest roster including ‘fringe Holocaust deniers, conspiracy theorists, and blood libel enthusiasts who oppose the State of Israel.'” Chikli is a real piece of work.

Lawfare

“Justice Department says it plans to release only part of special counsel’s Trump report for now” [Associated Press]. “The Justice Department said Wednesday that it intends to release special counsel Jack Smith’s findings on Donald Trump’s efforts to undo the results of the 2020 presidential election but will keep under wraps for now the rest of the report focused on the president-elect’s hoarding of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate… The announcement lessens the likelihood that the report on the classified documents investigation, which of all inquiries against Trump had once seemed to carry the greatest legal threat, would ever be released given that the Trump Justice Department almost certainly will not make the document public even after the case against Nauta and De Oliveira is resolved.” And the norms: “Smith’s team abandoned both cases in November after Trump’s presidential victory, citing Justice Department policy that prohibits the federal prosecutions of sitting presidents. Justice Department regulations call for special counsels appointed by the attorney general to submit a confidential report at the conclusion of their investigations. It’s then up to the attorney general to decide what to make public.”

Democrats en déshabillé

One more reason to hate the Democrats:

Khanna is wrong, absurdly wrong. This is in no sense an “unforced error” by Democrats (who, as Thomas Frank reminds us in Listen, Liberal!, hate the working class). Instead, it is elegant and successful maneuvering to evade accountability, rather like ObamaCare writ small. Sirota comments:

Realignment and Legitimacy

About Shawn Ryan, the “whistleblower” who released Livelsberger’s email manifesto:

Shot:

Chaser:

Saying “the FBI confirmed…” is a lot like saying “A Ukrainian spokesman confirmed….”

* * *

“Nation’s anger at insurance ‘injustice'” [China Daily]. “[Rosemary:] “‘My generation has discussed about not just what violence looks like when somebody comes up at you with a gun and shoots you, but more about economic violence. If you’re dying at the hands of somebody else according to a company policy, that doesn’t make it any less violent,’ she said.” • Interestingly, I can’t find the “Rosemary” quote anywhere.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC December 30 Last week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC December 21 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC December 28

Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data January 7: National [6] CDC Janurary 2, 2005:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens January 6: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic January 4:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC December 16: Variants[10] CDC December 16

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 20: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 20:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Seeing more red and more orange, but nothing new at major hubs.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) A little uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely jumped.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward trend since, well, Thanksgiving.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

Employment situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “Initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 10,000 from the previous week to 201,000 in the week ending January 4, the lowest in eleven months and contrasting with the expected increase to 218,000.”

Vehicle Sales: “United States Total Vehicle Sales” [Trading Economics]. “Total Vehicle Sales in the United States increased to 16.80 Million in December from 16.65 Million in November of 2024.”

* * *

Manufacturing: “Checks find no issues with Boeing 737-800 jets in S’pore after fatal Jeju Air crash” [Straits Times]. “Checks by the Singapore authorities in the wake of the deadly Jeju Air crash in December have found no anomalies or reliability issues in the fleet of Boeing 737-800 aircraft here, said Transport Minister Chee Hong Tat on Jan 8. This is the same aircraft model as the plane that smashed into a concrete structure housing navigational equipment at the end of a runway at Muan International Airport in South Korea, on Dec 29, 2024, killing 179 people on board.”

Manufacturing: “Problematic parts discovered in several Boeing passenger planes” [KING5]. “On Wednesday, internal Boeing sources told KING 5 there was a slowdown in Renton’s 737-MAX assembly line because of defective electrical junction boxes. Executive Director of Boeing’s engineering union Ray Goforth confirmed in a statement that there was a problem with the junction boxes and it slowed or stopped production. However, he was unaware of how significant the slowdown was. The MAX passenger plane has miles of electrical wiring and while it’s unclear which junction box is impacted, Aviation Expert John Nance said fixing the problem is imperative. ‘If it is a generic situation with a number of these boxes being found to be less than they should then it has to be addressed, there’s no question about it,’ said Nance. Boeing describes the items as non-conforming components and said despite this problem, production continues in the Renton factory.”

Tech: “The AI hype bubble is the new crypto hype bubble” [Cory Doctorow, Pluralistic]. “As [Emily M Bender, a computational linguistics specialist at UW] says, we’ve made ‘machines that can mindlessly generate text, but we haven’t learned how to stop imagining the mind behind it.’ One potential tonic against this fallacy is to follow an Italian MP’s suggestion and replace ‘AI’ with ‘SALAMI’ (‘Systematic Approaches to Learning Algorithms and Machine Inferences’). It’s a lot easier to keep a clear head when someone asks you, ‘Is this SALAMI intelligent? Can this SALAMI write a novel? Does this SALAMI deserve human rights?’ Bender’s most famous contribution is the ‘stochastic parrot,’ a construct that ‘just probabilistically spits out words.’ AI bros like Altman love the stochastic parrot, and are hellbent on reducing human beings to stochastic parrots, which will allow them to declare that their chatbots have feature-parity with human beings. At the same time, Altman and Co are strangely afraid of their creations. It’s possible that this is just a shuck: ‘I have made something so powerful that it could destroy humanity! Luckily, I am a wise steward of this thing, so it’s fine. But boy, it sure is powerful!'” • This is long, and fun, and worth a read, but I don’t think it lives up to the headline.

Tech: Khan is so fearless:

No doubt the Democrats will find a way to bury her.

Tech: Enshittification proceeds apace:

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 33 Fear (previous close: 35 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 27 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed).

Gallery

I wonder why the front page does not have the look of print:

Every so often I purchase a (paper) Financial Times and luxuriate in reading it. The experience is far, far superior to anything online, and the layout of the pages — something we’ve had centuries of experience doing, after all — moves the eye to serendipitous encounters in a way that the web does not.

Zeitgeist Watch

Yikes (1):

Yikes (2):

If the fire makes it down off the mountain:

Not a parking lot:

My first thought is that people took their car keys with them, so their cars couldn’t be moved, hence the bulldozer; but maybe there are no car keys anymore, just plastic fobs that would melt in the heat. Readers? (Shows you how much I drive, or am driven.)

The sharing economy does its part:

Class warfare:

Blast from the past:

Just in case anybody thinks Democrats don’t hate the working class.

Class Warfare

“Ski patrollers reach deal to end strike at Utah’s Park City Mountain Resort” [Associated Press]. “Ski patrollers at the biggest U.S. ski resort have reached a deal with Utah’s Park City Mountain Resort to end a strike that put a wrench in operations during the busy holiday season and into the new year. A joint statement released by the executive board of the ski patrollers’ union said a vote was scheduled for Wednesday on an agreement ‘that addresses both parties’ interests and will end the current strike. Everyone looks forward to restoring normal resort operations and moving forward together as one team,’ it said. The deal would run through April 2027. No other details about it were released. About 200 ski patrollers went on strike on Dec. 27 over wages they said were too low for high living costs.”

News of the Wired

“The Evaporative Cooling Effect in Social Network” [Bumblebee Labs]. From the Abstract: “The Evaporative Cooling Effect describes the phenomenon that high value contributors leave a community because they cannot gain something from it, which leads to the decrease of the quality of the community. Since the people most likely to join a community are those whose quality is below the average quality of the community, these newcomers are very likely to harm the quality of the community. With the expansion of community, it is very hard to maintain the quality of the community.” • Hmm.

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From SV:

SV writes: “Even a nearsighted Squirrel finds a pumpkin once in a while.”

* * *

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This entry was posted in Guest Post, Water Cooler on by .

About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

Subscribe to Post Comments
97 comments

  1. griffen

    Fire circumstances in southern California, those images above and from several news reports on TV this far just look horrid and disheartening to say the very absolute least.

    Some start to our new year in the US, ain’t it ?!?

    Reply ↓
      1. jrkrideau

        I was amazed at how gently that bulldozer driver was treating those cars. I would have sent in a couple of big dozers and just shoved everything to the sides. Cars compact nicely.

        Reply ↓
    2. lyman alpha blob

      RE: If the fire makes it down off the mountain…

      Musical accompaniment, which I add not to be flippant, but because your lead in, Lambert, made me think of the Dead song, which was apparently written as a CA wildfire in the 70s was closing in on the band’s recording studio – https://www.dead.net/features/greatest-stories-ever-told/greatest-stories-ever-told-fire-mountain

      “The lyrics, according to Robert Hunter in Box of Rain, were “Written at Mickey Hart’s ranch in heated inspiration as the surrounding hills blazed and the fire approached the recording studio where we were working.”

      Stay safe CA denizens!

      Reply ↓
    3. Wukchumni

      Really the only people that have urban outdoor fires are homeless, not that they are necessarily the peeps, but quite possibly.

      Reply ↓
    4. Bugs

      My buddy and his family lost their house in the center of the Palisades last night. It’s extremely disturbing. I know that part of LA very well and it’s going to be quite a while before it can be rebuilt. When they moved there it was still sort of affordable and quaint but it went through the roof after 2005 or so. Apparently the hydrants by their house were out of water.

      Reply ↓
  2. mrsyk

    Thanks SV for the plantidote and a chuckle. We do love our lexicon around here, and for good reason.
    Yikes(2)! Had to be getting a bit warm in the house when that video was shot. I wonder if they survived. Reminded me of a video shot in Gaza of a boy and his cat that was reposted here back in the early days of the Israeli SMO. (Memory stimulator, the boy was tossing the cat high in the air and catching it.)

    Reply ↓
  3. Tom Stone

    Both the Eaton and Palisades fires now exceed 10,000 acres with no containment.
    This is the new normal.
    The smoke is extremely toxic, look under your kitchen sink, that’s part of what you are breathing.
    I am one of many suffering permanent damage from the Tubbs fire and others, add that to the toll Covid is taking and we are talking about a lot of diminished lives.

    Reply ↓
    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > we are talking about a lot of diminished lives.

      People “leading their lives” with no masks while wildfire smoke swirls around them.

      Sorry to hear about the Tubbs fire.

      Reply ↓
  4. Felix

    I remember when a young incarcerated woman was killed fighting a brushfire in SoCal.On the funeral drive to the burial site firefighters honored her with crossed engine ladders and salutes at the freeway overpasses along the way. Still brings tears to my eyes.

    Reply ↓
  5. Andrew F

    I don’t know if this is the right attitude but I don’t like being caught up in the pay it forward Dunkin drive thru. When it happens to me I ask the employee to put the cost of my coffee in to their tip jar. I would rather pay it forward to the people who labor and provide service rather than some stranger in a car behind me.

    Reply ↓
    1. CanCyn

      I think this is totally the right attitude. Why are we buying coffee for someone who can clearly afford their coffee? This was a thing at the college where I worked and it never made sense to me. I too always put money in the tip jar instead when my turn came up. A coffee shop I go to now has a jar out to collect money for the nearby school’s breakfast program, deliberately billed as their alternative to pay it forward. This makes more sense to me than giving someone who doesn’t need it a free coffee.

      Reply ↓
    3. Dr. John Carpenter

      Not only, but the “pay it forward” thing is a PITA for the workers to keep track of and keep going. They have enough on their plate to try to keep the line moving without that nonsense.

      Reply ↓
    4. FreeMarketApologist

      The poster phrases it as “… some unidentified rando…” which is a pretty derogatory term for a person who has enriched someone elses’s life without any apparent thought for their own situation. With an attitude like that, it’s no wonder that he never experiences such a thing. I’d suggest that the wife start looking for a better husband.

      I don’t mind the ‘pay it forward’ thing, but don’t experience it a lot on the streets of New York.

      Reply ↓
  6. Googoogajoob

    Re: Greenland purchase

    Is Fetterman (Trump?) wrong? Probably considering that the Dutch made it clear that it was not for sale which then prompted comments from Daddy that he would consider taking it by force. Just remember Americans, you are and always will be the good guys.

    Reply ↓
      1. ambrit

        Maybe Don Trump is negotiating “behind the scenes” for Curacao for to build a combination Last Redoubt – Golf Course – Epstein Memorial Honeytrap Information Centre.

        Reply ↓
    2. steppenwolf fetchit

      . . . ” the Dutch made it clear that it was not for sale ” . . .

      Uhh . . . you mean the Danes, right?

      Reply ↓
    3. Wukchumni

      When we bought the Danish West Indies from Denmark in 1917, we relinquished any claims on Greenland in the future as part of the agreement.

      Reply ↓
      1. The Rev Kev

        Well yeah but that was then and this is now. To buy Greenland would cost trillions because of all the mineral wealth there along with other resources. But as the US is adding 1$ trillion of debt every 100 days, that may not be such a problem. Trump jr just went to Greenland so I am betting that he went to see the local elites to see what their price would be to sell out their country.

        Reply ↓
        1. Ben Panga

          A population of 50,000 should be pretty easy to co-opt, bribe or overrun. Greenland has had the right to become independent under Danish law since 2009. So you don’t actually need Denmark to agree. Instead, Greenland declares independence then immediately “joins” the USA.

          Serious question: what is to prevent Trump making them an offer they can’t refuse?

          Reply ↓
          1. Michael Fiorillo

            Well, since he always negotiates in good faith and lives up to his agreements, the Greenlanders should be golden, right?

            Reply ↓
      2. Erstwhile

        Wow! When I read that very same agreement last month, before it was written, btw, I took it to mean that we relinquished any clams found in the future in Greenland. What a mixup. Now I’ll go relax, sit down, and watch some Victor Borge videos, if, and only if, I can remember where I put that damn internet.

        Reply ↓
  7. CA

    https://english.news.cn/20250107/336db0a6432943d9b21ede73bfd67092/c.html

    January 7, 2025

    Chinese scientists unlock key advances in sugarcane genomics

    NANNING — A Chinese research team from Guangxi University has successfully decoded the genome of the modern cultivated sugarcane variety Xintaitang No. 22 (XTT22), shedding light on the highly complex allopolyploid genome of sugarcane and its evolutionary mechanisms.

    Sugarcane plays a vital role in the production of sugar, alcohol, and bioenergy, offering substantial economic and agricultural value. XTT22 was once the leading sugarcane variety in terms of planting area in China for 15 consecutive years. More than 90 percent of the country’s fourth and fifth-generation sugarcane varieties were developed using it as a parent…

    The research * was recently published in the journal Nature Genetics.

    * https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-024-02033-w

    Reply ↓
  9. CanCyn

    Hell yes Fetterman is wrong! As is any one thinking to takeover Greenland, whether by force or not, in order to exploit its natural resources. When we will ever figure out that ‘more’ is not going to solve our problems

    Reply ↓
    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      I mean “wrong” in the sense that acquiring Greenland is not like the Louisiana Purchase, where Jefferson also had the exploitation of natural resources in mind (some of those “resources” no doubt being slaves).

      Reply ↓
      1. CanCyn

        Sorry Lambert, I knew that was what you meant, I should have said that. It was the idea that Greenland could be acquired and what it would be used for that got my blood boiling

        Reply ↓
      3. jrkrideau

        Think of Greenland as an open refrigerator door or thermostat for a warming world, and it’s in a region that is warming four times faster than the rest of the globe, said New York University climate scientist David Holland.

        Locked inside are valuable rare earth minerals needed for telecommunications, as well as uranium, billions of untapped barrels of oil and a vast supply of natural gas that used to be inaccessible but is coming less so.

        I would suggest that Trump and Jefferson may have much in common.

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      4. Glen

        Nothing speaks louder about the complete collapse of American “soft power” than the “serious” discussion in “The Hill” to take Greenland or make Canada a state. This is single greatest sales pitch one could make to further remove a country from America’s orbit and align with BRICS.

        Trump trolled this out there, and what did he catch? All the [family blogging] idiots in DC.

        Reply ↓
        1. steppenwolf fetchit

          I have read a theory that Trump is saying all this as a diversionary distraction to keep all the bright media people and intellectuals busy while elements of Project Catfood 2025 are quietly advanced without any coverage and the Catfood DOGE quietly conspires with the Congress to advance its work.

          Reply ↓
  10. CA

    “The flip side is that there is ample demand for PRC government debt with the funds used for more transformational investments…”

    Perfect, just perfect.

    Reply ↓
    3. Cat Burglar

      For a US citizen, the Wikipedia page on Quebec French profanity is a revelation deserving continued study!

      But according to that source — Canadians please correct me! — marde may indeed be as correct as the spelling gets. There is no official spelling for the term.

      Reply ↓
  12. Craig G.

    I tried to watch the Shawn Ryan Shoemate interview but could only get halfway through it. It was all over the place. Stuff about the dead soldier being eyewitness to significant war crimes, Iranian agents on the loose with anti-aircraft missiles in the United States, Chinese anti-gravity propulsion technology.

    Perhaps the appropriate label is intelligence agency fear mongering. I will not be paying any attention to either of those guys ever again.

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  13. Bazarov

    These musings by Trump vis-a-vis Canada (less so of Greenland, but sometimes disputes over small territories–in this case small in population–can lead to big consequences) seem risky to me. He’s inviting geopolitical instability into his country’s home continent, in effect opening up breaches in the wall of “Fortress America.”

    What I mean by “breaches” is that, by destabilizing large countries like Canada and perhaps Mexico, the US would create openings for our opponents to give us a taste of our own medicine by supporting proxy forces (like we do in, say, Xinjiang and did, if you believe the reports, in Chechnya, and certainly also in aspirational Kurdistan) on our borders. The cartels, I think, would prove a formidable fighting force, as would resurgent Canadian nationalist guerrillas that our play to annex that nation might in effect birth.

    It’d be rather cheap for Russia or China to supply some arms and drones to such movements.

    Are we ready for bombings by the Maple Freedom Army?

    Reply ↓
    1. mrsyk

      I’ve been ruminating along the same lines, prompted by the Mexico rhetoric noise level. It would be folly to invite conflict to this hemisphere as we would undoubtedly take a beating. Not to mention the shame memorialized in textbooks worldwide of defeat by the likes of the mighty MFA, lol, thanks.

      Reply ↓
      1. ChrisFromGA

        We cannot beat up the big boys in Russia and China, so let’s kick around some small fry in our own hemisphere! What could possibly go wrong?

        I think Mexico would punch way above its weight class. Those narco trafficantes probably have some good weapons. Perhaps some of the stuff sent to Ukraine made it to Sinaloa, with a 10% cut for the Big Guy.

        Reply ↓
        1. Pat

          Twisted as it is there is value in Washington circles for a weak Mexican government. There is probably more truth then we would like to the CT that the same groups who enable the Columbian drug cartels might do the same in Mexico. Especially if as much of the CIA’s black budget is from drug trafficking as rumored. There are also a lot of “failed’ ATF operations.
          I don’t know that they really needed Ukraine and the Big Guy.

          Reply ↓
      2. ChrisFromGA

        Would Canadian nationalist guerillas be really polite to their hostages?

        “Come on inside, would you like a good Labatts with that bowl of gruel, kind of cold for hostage-taking, eh?”

        Reply ↓
          2. ambrit

            Funny that. I thought the Borscht Belt was in New York, not Quebec.
            Putintine. Is that like Ovaltine, but rounder?

            Reply ↓
      3. The Rev Kev

        Well the US tried on three separate occasions to invade Canada but were beaten back by the locals. But what is there in 21st century America that Canada would really like to have? The American healthcare system? The political system? The justice system? Can’t think of anything off hand that Canada would like to have from 2025 America.

        Reply ↓
    4. jrkrideau

      Both Canada and Denmark are in NATO and Denmark are a member of the European Union.  An invasion of Greenland activates Article 5 of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty and Article 47(7) of the  Treaty on European Union.  So in one swoop, Trump puts the USA at odds, more or less at war, with 35 countries including Canada, its next door neighbour, and Türkiye, usually described as having the second largest army in NATO. 

      I can see a lot of heads of government in those 35 countries collapsing in gibbering heaps as the various alternatives begin to hit home.

      A lot of former colonies whose people fought and died for independence might not be wildly enthusiastic to see the USA re-colonizing Panama. There has been talk in the USA of invading Mexico to attack the drug cartels. I am sure Mexico has fond memories of the Mexican–American War and of  General  Pershing’s escapades chasing Pancho Villa in 1916. All of Latin America must be reassured by this talk.

      Come to think of it, pretty well any of the Caribbean nations must be nervous as should be France, the UK and the Netherlands who  all have territories in or around the Caribbean. 

      As a Canadian, alliances with Russia and China are looking tempting. Neither country has ever invaded us and I’d say it’s unlikely they would.

      Reply ↓
    5. MaryLand

      Time for a rerun of the “Canadian Bacon” film with John Candy and Rip Torn? Maybe an educational film for Trump?

      Reply ↓
    6. OnceWere

      Even a peaceful and voluntary union on Canada’s part might be destabilizing. It would be interesting to see how the American political system would go about metabolizing the addition of a 51st state bigger even than California. I could easily see the injection of so many new electoral college votes as causing a systemic crisis in DC. I doubt that either of the tribal factions of US politics would sit on their hands and meekly accept the near impossibility of their side winning the presidency for the foreseeable future if Canada turned out to trend either reliably Red or reliably Blue.

      Reply ↓
  14. NN Cassandra

    Jeffrey Sachs is Jewish, so perhaps they were thinking about code for self hating Jew or whatever is the current slur for those Jews who don’t toe the Zionist line.

    Reply ↓
    1. NotTimothyGeithner

      Schism is the word of the day. Israel is an Imperial power. It’s incompatible with Rabbinical Judaism at the end of the day. Secularism, especially US secularism, has obscured it, but I think this is actively occurring.

      Reply ↓
  15. raspberry jam

    not Canadian but have been in Quebec since before the new year – I’m here regularly for work, it is very cold and snowy – I’m not sure what explicit color you’re wondering about in scene 4 but some observations from being here regularly over the last year+:

    – Leftist: they are indeed very much so, in the traditional pre-Macron metropolitan France (socialized childcare, regular and big protests against NATO, big protests a month or two back over involvement with Gaza, state-funded French language TV stations, free tuition for residents)
    – Hate religion: maybe this is a reference to the QC-specific swearing? There are pre-1960s churches everywhere, I don’t get the impression they’re utilized much any longer
    – “Ever heard of civil law?” may be a reference to this? See title 1

    Reply ↓
    2. bob

      Montreal is a great city. The Quebecois movement hasn’t been a thing in 20 years. I might have agreed then, but the people I meet from Quebec now are extremely polite and very nice.

      The comic was anglo chauvinism. Anglos don’t like that there are still non-anglo areas and identities. To be fair, I think that most Quebecois would be OK with that characterization because it is antagonistic to all the right people. Very true to french roots….

      Reply ↓
      2. jrkrideau

        The Quebecois movement hasn’t been a thing in 20 years.

        That is in the Canadian context. The real threat of becoming a part of the USA would turn just about everyone in Québec into indépendantists in seconds. I imagine that would include about 95% of the anglophone and allophone population.

        Reply ↓
    3. eg

      “– Hate religion: maybe this is a reference to the QC-specific swearing? There are pre-1960s churches everywhere, I don’t get the impression they’re utilized much any longer”

      Québécois swearing is traditionally of the sacrilegious variety rather than the scatological or sexual — it’s not because religion was traditionally hated. The age and relative emptiness of the great number of Catholic churches is a legacy of “the Quiet Revolution” which was a reaction against the Catholic Church in the 1960s for its complicity with the Duplessis regime in the 1950s which kept Francophones all across the province under the thumb of the Anglo elite concentrated on the island of Montreal.

      Reply ↓
  16. ChrisFromGA

    M T-G introduces legislation to rename Gulf of Mexico

    Trumptown Girl

    (Sung to the tune of, “Uptown Girl” by Billy Joel)

    Oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh
    Oh-oh-oh-oh

    Trumptown girl, she’s been livin’ in her MAGA world
    I bet she’s just an Orangeman acolyte
    I bet her momma never taught her right

    She’s not too bright – she’s a Trumptown girl (Trumptown girl)
    She’s been livin’ in her red-cap world (red-cap world)
    As long as anyone with no brains can (no brains can)
    And now she’s cooking up a hare-brained plan
    (It’s just a scam)

    And when she blows
    What she wants on our dime (on our dime)
    And when she sold out, speaker holdouts, for some free face time

    She’ll see she’s just a punk
    With junk in her trunk, MAGA-drunk, she’s a Trumptown girl! (Trumptown girl)
    Sittin’ pretty in her MAGA world (MAGA world)
    She’s gettin’ tired of those Gulf map names (Gulf map names!)
    And jingoism is the name of the game
    She’s really lame!

    Oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh
    Oh, oh-oh-oh-oh, oh-oh-oh-oh-oh

    Trumptown girl
    You know she really makes me want to hurl
    But maybe someday when a clue comes in
    She’ll understand what kind of clown she’s been (she’s been)
    And then, we’ll win

    And when she’s tweeting
    She’s looking so fine
    And taking beatings
    From left-wing hipster kinds

    She’ll see that I’m enough, just because, I’m in love with a Trumptown girl

    She’s been living in her white-trash world
    As long as anyone will buy her scams
    And now she’s lookin’ for a Trumptown man

    (That’s what I am!)

    Oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh (who can count them?)
    Oh-oh-oh

    Trumptown girl! She’s my Trump-town girl!

    (Don’t ya know I’m in love with a Trumptown girl)
    My Trump-town girl!
    (Don’t ya know I’m in love with a Trumptown girl!)
    My Trumptown girl!)

    Reply ↓
  17. lyman alpha blob

    RE: Ski patrollers reach deal

    OK, so now I am being flippant – I wonder if the deal included all the weed you can smoke while on patrol? I’ve met a few back in the day who would have gladly settled for that.

    Reply ↓
  18. lyman alpha blob

    I may be grasping at straws with the following, but for now I’ll consider it a small ray of hope. In the latest from Nima with Alex Krainer, at about the 20:00 mark they discuss the Donald reposting a Jeffrey Sachs video where Sachs calls BS on US foreign policy for the last decade or so. Somewhat encouraging from the Donald!

    Reply ↓
  20. Wukchumni

    A buddy and his family were skiing at Park City over Xmas break when the ski patrollers went on strike and most of the mountain was closed down, ending up with hour long lift lines or longer.

    Ski patrollers are woefully underpaid across the country, most make less than a fast food employee in Cali.

    Fabulous conditions on the slopes here in Mammoth, not a lot of snow-just enough.

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  22. Trogg

    On Harris missing the tie breaking vote to preserve a worker friendly NLRB: is this why she was attacking Bernie the other day?

    Reply ↓
    1. CA

      “On Harris missing the tie breaking vote…”

      There have been several such instances with Harris. Choosing to ignore her father, who is too liberal for her, was no isolated a behavior for Harris.

      Reply ↓
  23. Ben Panga

    Re: Greenland for Tech Lord Freedom Cities:

    As soon as I read the tweets Lambert embedded my brain replied “Yes, of course. Why didn’t I see this before?”

    Thiel has long been obsessed with ideas like this.

    In 2008 he began funding The Seastedding Institute. This Wired article from the time gives a pretty good overview of the SI, and Libertarian ideas about “competition in governance” aka being outside any state control. It also mentions colonizing Mars, which is interesting in the light of Musk’s future obsession with that. (Perhaps coincidentally?), both Panama and The Gulf of Mexico crop up in that 2008 story

    The Seastedding Founder (Google’s Patri Friedman, grandson of Milton) would move into more general Freedom City projects, running a Thiel funded VC firm

    From Patri’s wiki: In 2019, Friedman founded Pronomos Capital, a venture capital firm whose purpose is to bankroll the construction of experimental cities on vacant tracts of land in developing countries. Like The Seasteading Institute, Pronomos Capital is backed by Peter Thiel. Most of the cities will be aimed at foreign businesses seeking friendlier tax treatment.[24]

    Pronomos Capital is the vehicle that funds Praxis (referenced in Lambert’s embedded tweet). A bit more on Pronomos in this NYPost article from 2021: Tech bros’ next move: Private cities without US government control

    —

    I don’t think this is the only reason for the Greenland thing but it definitely looks to be part of it.

    —

    I’ll finish with video of Thiel talking up Seastedding in 2018.

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      The whole point of Seastedding is so that they do not have to pay anybody taxes or obey any country’s laws. They are like little kids that way. The only way that would work for Greenland would be if it became a protectorate where like other US territories, the citizens there would have no right to vote in US elections but would be taxed by them. Wait, is that ‘taxation without representation?’

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_taxation_without_representation

      Reply ↓
      1. Ben Panga

        True if it became a protecterate, but why can’t a whole new designation happen?

        Part of the country becomes a Libertarian freedom zone. A small part is left to the Greenlandics to live in (for now). Or all of it becomes a Libertarian zone. Mineral rights go to USA and are sold to private companies. No income or other taxes. Military rights and potential base locations/black sites go to the USA

        Some very smart (if misguided) libertarians have been thinking about how to do this for years and I imagine they have creative ideas.

        —

        Given Greenland’s origin story Eric the Red would have been more appropriate than Don Jr, no?

        Reply ↓
    2. ambrit

      Mr. Lee’s Greater Hong Kong in the Frozen North.
      According to these “visionaries,” the Future will not be evenly distributed, by design.
      Will these City States be built as arcologies?

      Reply ↓
    1. Ben Panga

      A conspiracy theory I’m workshopping:

      The memory-holed Butler ‘assassination attempt’ was actually CIA/Palantir work. The purpose was a message to Trump: “We can kill you at any time. You may be President, but that cannot protect you from us. Don’t step out of line. Do not interfere with our projects. We own you!”

      It would need great precision but it doesn’t seem impossible to pull off if one has the capabilities of the CIA/Palantir.

      What if Trump got a much more private message spelling this out afterwards? Perhaps video of the “assassination attempt” from a drone…

      Some suggestive dates:

      July 13th Butler attempt
      July 15th Trump selects Thiel-pawn Vance as future VP

      Vance as Veep is the ultimate sword over Trump’s head.

      There’s an offhand quote from Trump from around the same time saying roughly: “people say it’s dangerous to have a VP who’s too good.” I remember the reaction at the time was that he’d slighted Vance, but I wonder if it was a reflection on his situation. (Apologies but I cannot find said quote)

      —

      I don’t have huge confidence in the theory (yet!), but find it a useful possible framework to understand the unfolding power dynamics of Trump2.

      Reply ↓
  25. ambrit

    “I wonder why the front page does not have the look of print.”
    Because, back then in a more refined age, newspapers for the upscale citoyens were printed on nice shiny rag bond paper, obviously. Either that or it is a visual pun on the term Mauve Decade.

    Reply ↓
  26. Swamp Yankee

    Two points re: Greenland, Monroe, and Fetterman. I will make the one on Monroe in a separate comment.

    First, yes, Fetterman is wrong. Greenland’s destiny rightfully belongs to the Greenlanders. The Greenlanders, through their elected Prime Minister, are adamant that they are not for sale.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/greenland-is-not-sale-its-leader-says-response-trump-2024-12-23/

    If one was opposed to say, the Iraq War, on the correct grounds that it was an overtly imperialist war, one should also reject other attempts — whether armed or otherwise — to impose the will of one nation on another.

    We are also signatory to at least two relevant treaties here: the UN Charter (Art. 2(4) states that “[a]ll Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.”) and the North Atlantic Treaty of 1949. You can dislike these treaties, and/or think the US observes them only when it chooses; but as a matter of justice, that does not abrogate the principle of pacta sunt servanda — agreements must be kept.

    Nor does it abrogate the right of small nations to self-determination, and the fatal effects of empire on a republic.

    The differences with respect to the Louisiana Purchase is a) this was prior to the UN Charter; b) the French responded, not as the Greenlanders are, with immediate rejection; but rather, with offering much more than was originally sought (the brief was simply to buy New Orleans). It is more like failed attempts to buy the Dom. Republic in the 19 th c.

    It was wrong when the US violated the UN Charter when we invaded Iraq. It would be wrong to do so again with respect to Greenland.

    Reply ↓
  27. Swamp Yankee

    Re: Monroe. I wrote this yesterday, and am re-posting it below the break, giving historical context on the Monroe Doctrine and why it wasn’t, in its 1820s iteration, nearly as expansionist/imperialist as other, later actors turned it into.

    And so far as why is Trump doing this — Maybe Trump is trying to placate the Blob with such talk; or, maybe Trump is and always has been just a juvenile bully by character and circumstance, and he thinks he has found weaker actors on the international stage to go after.

    Here is the Monroe Doctrine comment:
    __________________________________________
    At the risk of pedantry, I think the idea that Monroe would be proud of this behavior by Trump is not supported by the historical evidence. The Monroe Doctrine was not an expansionist doctrine per se in its original iteration, though it was used as such by later expansionists in the latter 19th and the 20th centuries.

    Rather, the Monroe Doctrine came in response to a specific geopolitical and ideological situation in the Atlantic world after the Napoleonic Wars. As part of the larger world-upheaval from 1789-1815, the Spanish colonies in South America had thrown off the rule of the Spanish crown and established republics. The US, the “OG” republic in the greater Atlantic, both supported these sister republics, and was perturbed by the desire of the most reactionary of the victorious powers — Austria, Prussia, and Russia — to defend monarchy and attack republicanism generally, and, specifically, to reestablish Spanish rule and the Spanish monarchy in South America (Russian expansion in the northwestern part of the Continent also played a role).

    My understanding is that the Monroe Doctrine was largely the work of Sec. of State John Quincy Adams, who had been directly involved in the world of Atlantic diplomacy since he accompanied his father, John Adams, to France during the Revolution.

    And while Quincy Adams may have authored the policy, above all, it relied on the fact that Britain agreed with the Monroe Doctrine’s goals — the UK, for both commercial and I think actual ideological reasons, did not want to see the most reactionary of European monarchies reestablish their power in South America. The saying was that the US was basically here a small boat being towed behind a giant British man’o’war.

    Aside from the acquisition of East Florida — itself partially the result of Gen. Jackson’s extra-legal military actions — Monroe’s Presidency wasn’t particularly expansionist.

    The later uses of the Monroe Doctrine are well beyond its original context and intentions, in my view.

    Reply ↓
    1. steppenwolf fetchit

      Well, a lot of people with TSS will spend the next few weeks, months, years . . . . telling us all how good it is and how good it will get.

      ( TSS = Trump Stockholm Syndrome)

      Reply ↓
      1. Pat

        Just another side of our political Janus state seeing as we are coming off almost four years of DSS (Democratic Stockholm Syndrome) sufferers, especially in the media, telling us that Biden is our FDR, Jonas Salk, and real life Andy Taylor all in one. There was a brief foray into Harris adulation but the genuflecting to Biden is second only to the bowing and scraping to Israel.

        Honestly, all the Trump analysis reminds me of the Obama eleven dimensional chess talk. Trump may be smarter than he is perceived in the beltway media but most of the more flattering explanations for statements and actions or even lack of action is wishful thinking. The general good is (was) not a consideration in either case.

        Reply ↓
  29. JMH

    Interesting discussion of the via DJT Greenland kerfuffle. If anything at all serious grew out of this why does anyone entertain the idea that treaties, doctrines and other such niceties would be a consideration. Big power politics is back. The strong do what they will. The weak suffer as they must. For instance, there is a law on the books that prohibits delivering arms to situations such as Israel and Gaza. Apologies for not having the specifics at my fingertips and being to lazy to look it up. The bunker buster bombs the Israeli’s are dropping were sent by Genocide Joe with a wave of his cape and an olé to the law. Why would it be any different here?

    Reply ↓

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