Because we are in the midst of what Lambert likes to call an overly dynamic situation, this post will be comparatively brief. As most of you know already, there was great excitement over the news of a ceasefire pact between Israel and Hamas, with the prospect that the horrific punishment of Gazans might stop, if not their suffering due to the physical destruction of Gaza and the deaths and maiming of so many of its inhabitants. However, despite widespread reports of a six-month ceasefire and phased withdrawal having been agreed, in fact the deal is still in play. Even with the Trump team trying to lower the hammer on the US-dependent Israel government, the agreement has not been approved by the Knesset. From Aljazeera’s live stream:
And a very fresh entry on the Times of Israel live stream has Netanyahu’s office trying to accuse Hamas of acting in bad faith.
In fact many commentators (forgive me for not providing supporting links) have pointed out the outline of terms (save the duration of the ceasefire, which IIRC is longer than past proposals) is essentially the same as what Hamas agreed to before but Israel wriggled out of by repeatedly making last minute additional demands.
The tweet below was based on the earlier premature reports of the ceasefire agreement, which would not be effective until January 19, having been consummated. But even so, this action would be true to form, of Israel upping its destruction right before cessation-of-hostilities agreements become effective:
BREAKING :
Just after agreeing to a ceasefire, Israel is now dropping bombs on TENTS packed with civilians in Gaza, burning Palestinians alive in the middle of the night.
HOLOCAUST. pic.twitter.com/8ICvPrZC1B
— sarah (@sahouraxo) January 16, 2025
Continuing Israel attacks on Gaza, suggest that even if Israel goes though the motions of capitulating to US demands, it will work hard to defy them, much like a willful teenager. And Israel has form here:
Just remember that every inauguration of a US president, Palestine miraculously gets a ceasefire from Israel. And after the inauguration, Israel always breaks the ceasefire. They are gaslighting us. pic.twitter.com/slJBU8q7BF
— Rathbone (@_rathbone) January 15, 2025
For the sake of completeness, a summary of the ceasefire provisions. Note they look unduly fuzzy and incomplete (save on the key issue of prisoner exchanges). Fram SBS:
Here’s what we know about the deal so far.
The first phase
The initial phase will last six weeks and will involve a limited hostage-prisoner exchange, the partial withdrawal of Israeli troops in Gaza and a surge of aid into the enclave.
Thirty-three Israeli hostages will be released in this phase of the agreement, with those first released to be “civilian women and female recruits, as well as children, elderly people … civilian ill people and wounded”,[{Qatar’s Prime Minister] Al Thani said.
In terms of the Palestinian prisoners that would be exchanged for the 33 hostages, Israeli government spokesperson David Mencer said on Tuesday that Israel was “prepared to pay a heavy price — in the hundreds”.
Israel will release all Palestinian women and children under 19 detained since the October 7 attacks by the end of the first phase. The total number of Palestinians released will depend on the hostages released and could be between 990 and 1,650 Palestinian detainees, including men, women and children….
An Israeli buffer zone
Negotiations over a second phase of the agreement will begin by the 16th day of phase one and are expected to include the release of the remaining captives, including Israeli male soldiers, a permanent ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of Israeli soldiers.
Israeli forces would not fully withdraw from Gaza until “all hostages are returned”, the Israeli official said.
A source close to Hamas said Israeli forces would withdraw from the Netzarim Corridor westward toward Salaheddin Road to the east, enabling displaced people to return through an electronic checkpoint equipped with cameras….
Critical aid
The first phase will also see international aid agencies gain increased access and protections in Gaza.
The deal requires 600 truckloads of humanitarian aid to be allowed into Gaza every day of the ceasefire, 50 of them carrying fuel, with 300 of the trucks allocated to the enclave’s north…
The United Nations said on Tuesday it was busy preparing to expand humanitarian assistance to the Gaza Strip under a potential ceasefire but uncertainty around border access and security in the enclave remain obstacles…
Israel passed laws in October banning the UN Palestinian aid agency UNRWA — which the UN says is the backbone of aid operations in Gaza — from operating in the region.
The laws, which prohibit UNRWA from operating on Israeli land and having contact with Israeli authorities, is due to take effect later this month.
What happens next?
Details on the potential second and third phases of the ceasefire deal remain unclear.
Under the arrangements outlined by Qatar, the details of phases two and three will be “finalised” during the implementation of phase one…
Biden said phase two would comprise an exchange for the release of remaining hostages who are still alive, including the male soldiers. Then all remaining Israeli forces would withdraw from Gaza, he said.
Israel has said it will not agree to a complete withdrawal until Hamas’ military and political capabilities are eliminated.
Needless to say, with the later phases to be negotiated, it seems plenty likely this deal will break down unless the Trump Administration is serious about keeping Israel on a short leash, or whether this deal is merely a one-off, with the Trump crowd lacking the persistence and/or intent to keep the scheme from going off the rails, which Israel will work hard to achieve.
It’s hardly a secret that Israel has made a mockery of its 60 day ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, with strikes and incursions into southern Lebanon continuing (the only serious effect of that pact seems to be a halt of bombing of Beirut).
Just a reminder that Israel, the Zionist entity, is still bombing Lebanon amid the ceasefire. https://t.co/nZmsrbVDov
— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) January 12, 2025
Israel daily breaches the ‘ceasefire’ in Lebanon both inside and outside the demilitarised zone. Three days ago they killed 5 civilians. pic.twitter.com/MiAQpZ4AZI
— Craig Murray (@CraigMurrayOrg) January 15, 2025
Even early on, Israel largely ignored the Lebanon pact:
About the Lebanon ceasefire Biden is so proud of — CNN just reported that "Israel has violated that ceasefire about 100 times." pic.twitter.com/w172R5VrQM
— Ken Klippenstein (@kenklippenstein) December 2, 2024
One of the critical elements to restoring a thin semblance of survivability in the ravaged Gaza is large daily deliveries of aid: 600 trucks of food including 50 of fuel. Israel has persistently fallen short of past supply delivery commitments, even going so far as to empty bags of sugar and refill them with sand. Even if Israel were to be uncharacteristically complaint about the other elements of the Gaza ceasefire, seriously underdelivering on aid commitments will be enough to continue the slow-motion destruction of what is left in the way of life in Palestine. I see nothing so far that obligates Israel to restore other absolutely essential services, starting with electricity and water. And what about the completely destroyed hospital system? What happens with medical care?
Now admittedly, the Trump team refusing to be cowed by Netanyahu and trying to get him to operate as if Israel is what it is, a US dependency, is a step in the right direction. Even though the incoming Administration has voiced fierce opposition to the major actors in The Resistance, it appears dead set against letting Israel embroil the US in a conflict with Iran, which has long been a pet aim and personal continued survival strategy of Netanyahu’s. Importantly, the Trump Administration may be trying to curb the eschatological bent of the Israeli hardliners along with their dangerous beliefs about Israel’s right to seize yet more territory, not just parts of Lebanon but also Egypt and Jordan.
However, the Israel press is saying the deal is all a big show:
Just a reminder that Israel, the Zionist entity, is still bombing Lebanon amid the ceasefire. https://t.co/nZmsrbVDov
— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) January 12, 2025
There is another school of thought. Alastair Crooke, in his discussion with Judge Napolitano at the start of the week, that the Trump quid pro quo for the ceasefire is allowing Israel a free hand with ethnic cleansing of the West Bank, where Israel has been able to use less visibly destructive means than in Gaza.
But if so, why would Netanyahu impede the Knesset ratification? The tweet above may instead signify that Netanyahu is trying to preserve his image in Israel and also believes he can ignore any commitment, violate the ceasefire, and see if the US dares to take concrete action.
Tucker Carlson suggests the deal is coming unglued in usual Israel form, of picking it apart after it’s been theoretically agreed but before inked. And he lambastes the Biden Administration for getting ahead of itself, presumably in the interest of taking credit for the benefit of Biden’s legacy. Via the TCN morning news summary:
The development makes Biden, Kamala Harris, and Antony Blinken’s Wednesday press conference look childish and irresponsible. By declaring peace before it was official, American leadership gave both Hamas and Israel the ability to use the kind of tactic Netanyahu says his adversaries are exploiting.
Keep in mind that even if, out of what one expects from the US, that Trump actually does want this deal to stick so as to greatly reduce the heat level in the Middle East and free up his Administration to address other priorities, Israeli extremists could put the region in turmoil all on their own, with the mother of all provocations being blowing up the Al Aqsa mosque.
Aurelien, in an important new post on negotiations to end hostilities, gave the diplomat’s version of the commercial adage, that contracts are only as good as the parties that sign them:
Agreements, whether simple or elaborate, whether legal or political in nature, whether written or verbal, have no more effect than the willingness of parties to implement them, and no more significance than the good faith of parties in entering into them in the first place
There is plenty of commentary, such as from a new video by Iran’s Professor Mohammed Marandi on Dialogue Works on how the ceasefire confirms the effectiveness of The Resistance campaign, to a new article by Daniel Herst, Gaza ceasefire: After 15 months of brutality, Israel has failed on every front, that this agreement represents a loss for Israel. Recall the point made by Alastair Crooke and Scott Ritter, among others, from the outset: if Hamas survived, it won. Similarly, the refusal of Gazans to surrender their land, even at such horrific cost, is a victory if this deal sticks, even if at huge cost. Hence the high motivation of Israel to deny that success.
So I wish I were wrong, but getting optimistic about real relief for Gazans seems misplaced.
Update 10:30 AM: The Financial Times reports that two right wing parties are threatening to resign from the Knesset if the ceasefire is approved. Netanyahu has tried adding more color to his claim of Hamas adding demands by saying that they are trying to “dictate” which prisoners are released in exchange for hostages. But it is hardly unusual to negotiate hostage exchanges that way.
The reality is that the likely defection of the two hawkish parties has nothing to do with prisoner exchange hondling but the whole premise of the proposed pact:
Netanyahu’s statement came as a finance minister Bezalel Smotrich’s far-right Religious Zionist party said on Thursday morning that it could leave the government if the deal led to a permanent end of the war.
Speaking to Kan Radio, Zvi Sukkot, a lawmaker from the party, said it would “in all likelihood” resign from the government if a deal was approved, since its mission was to “change the DNA of Israel”, not just make up numbers in the coalition.
The party said later on Thursday it was “a condition for the party to remain in the government and the coalition” that Israel should resume fighting “immediately upon the conclusion of the first phase of the deal”.
However, these defections would not bring down the government. Israel allows for minority governments and opposition parties have said they would back Netanyahu. But the pink paper states, without elaborating, that early elections could eventually result.
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It could be Wilkoff said: “The deliveries stop 20 Jan…..”
The first rotten fruit of Trump, combined with a big assist from Biden.
Could it be possible that there really wasn’t a deal, Netanyahu never agreed to terms, and the press lied?
Also, just based on the outline above, there is nothing about the Philadelphi corridor. Israel needs to hold that with their own troops to prevent Egypt from sending weapons into Gaza.
If Bibi can stall for another 24 hours, it’s Friday evening in Israel and the Sabbath starts … time spoils all deals.
No, the Qatar PM said there was a deal and outlined terms. He’s not going to lie for the US. Recall this is the same Qatar that just told the EU to pound sand with respect to putting climate change charges on Qatari LNG buys.
That does not mean that Netanyahu won’t pull every trick he has to defy the US edict, or simply massively cheat. But terms for the first phase look to be adequately set on paper.
The more important issue isn’t that there are verbal or written provision, but the odds of Israel respecting them, even if the Knesset approved, are close to nada.
The USA and Israel are agreement non compliant. In other words, neither can be trusted. Ditto for tRUMP.
It’s a time-out for commercials. Genocide will be right back after messages from sponsors.
True but the people of Gaza have suffered an awful lot, death estimates are in the 300000+ range plus almost all the infrastructure is rubble or close to it.
The way I see it, Israel is on borrowed time. I dont see the economy ever recovering and as time goes on more and more IOF soldiers are going to be running from and/or fighting war crimes charges so Israel’s reputation will probably continue to get worse.
If I’m a Gazan I would think every day without American bombs dropped on me from Israeli planes is a victory, even if eventually it does get worse again.
I read that the Israeli army has had heavy, by their standards, casualties in recent weeks and so there are other factors in play rather than a mere ego tussle between Trump and Netanyahu. But if it does come down to that last then it is just possible that Trump will go where his predecessors Biden and Obama did not. After all you can’t claim to be making America great when the tiny tail is still vigorously wagging the dog. And given their horrible behavior it is ever harder for the hasbara contingent to pretend victimhood.
The main debate (not presented for public view) going on between US officials and Israel is over how fast to kill or move the people in the way of Israel’s land grab.
The rest is just perception management and now, across the globe, I sense anger, resentment, and sometimes confusion in authorities for having to do perception management. It’s why the propaganda is laughable if one bit of critical thinking is applied.
Time will tell what’s really going down, but as a strictly personal reaction while listening yesterday to Duran/Mercurious account of Trump envoy Steve Wilcoff (who is also Jewish accounding to Mercurious) verbally assaulting Netanyahu with “salty/direct language” when Netanyahu tried to blow off meeting Wilcoff “because Sabath” and the pressure he exerted on Netanyahu….for one brief moment I think I felt what is was like when America asserts it’s national sovereignty and power to crack heads together in its own enlighten self interests and the good of others to put Israel in its place, instead of cowardly chasing lobby donations and dictates. It felt wonderful while it lasted. I’m sure this wasn’t done for the benefit all that is good and right, but still – wow if true.
I read the account in Haaretz, so I assume it’s true. I’ll confess that the account actually made me proud to be an American for a moment.
One must pay particular attention to the emotions the propaganda is intended to induce.
Israel wants to kill or expel Palestinians from what Israelis view as their land. That’s all we need to know. Israelis, in the main, don’t recognize any kind of morality as it applies to non-Jews. Eventually, people around the world will realize this. I don’t see a cease fire as worth anything unless Israel is forced to abide by it by Washington. It’s up to Trump and his team.
This is it exactly. The vast majority of Israelis appear to be Jewish Supremacists who believe that they have the moral right to take land they claim by any means necessary. The only difference between them and Al Qaeda/ISIS/AlNusra/HTS is which holy book they believe gives them their rights.
Smotrich and Ben-Gvir are now threatening to topple to government if the deal goes through:
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-hostages-01-16-24/index.html
Together they hold 14 seats which is enough to take down Netanyahu.
That probably explains the delay, Bibi is stalling. If he can hold out until sundown tomorrow Israeli time, I predict that the entire thing will collapse. The “delay” narrative falls apart over the weekend and Brump gets a nice turd-burger to deal with on Day 1.
If Trump was smart he should send an envoy to see Smotrich and Ben-Gvir to point out to them that without US aid, that they will lose this war as they run out of bombs. Until the US shows that the spigot can be narrowed down or even stopped, guys like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir will just keep on shooting their mouths off and sabotaging whatever the US and Trump tries to do.
Brump smart? Hahaha!
Brump isn’t going to do anything other than bluster. If the deal collapses over the weekend, he’ll blame Triden.
Lambert has suggested that Trump can be a lot smarter than people think. He certainly isn’t “book smart.” The notion that he sits around reading Mein Kampf is a joke.
Trump 2 has the potential to be different from Trump1 which was a bit of a fluke. IMO you are jumping to way too many conclusions. Trump this time is out to show all the haters wrong or at least to get their goat. What would motivate him to embrace their agenda?
Sounds like an announcement for Wrestlemania. Watch live, only on pay-per-view!
Trump is as Fake as Wrestlemania (and sadly for the rest of the planet, a reflection of US “society”).
For those that might have missed Trump in action, live, only on pay-per-view:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMKFIHRpe7I
If he was smart and had real pull, he would have arranged obvious but deniable accidents to conveniently take out those two along with a couple other loonies and then instigate some challenges to their funding sources.
Actually this story of bombs is a bit of a chimera. The Israelis choose to use bombs because they’re a pretty stunt and it pleases Israeli Air Force pilots. In practice, though, the Israelis could kill any number of Gazans using other weapons, including ones they make. Hell, they could drop barrels filled with amatol from helicopters — Gaza has no air defenses.
I disagree. Destroying the existing infrastructure was a major point of the exercise. It both clears the land and destroys their culture. It was meant to break their will. And it was just vicious, see Alon Mizrahi who said that sort of sadism was the point.
Nah, CNN says that barrel bombs are used by the bad guys like al-Assad. Good guys use smart bombs.
Please see the update at the end of the post. The two uber-right-wing parties resigning in fact will not “topple the government”. Israel is designed to operate with a minority government and opposition parties have said they will support Netanyahu. But the squabbling may eventually lead to early elections.
Thanks. I read CNN’s update as well that dovetails with yours. Yes, the Likud dudes can throw Bibi a lifeline and then we’ll have to see if he sticks around, for a bit.
However, is that they way Bibi rolls? I think it is more likely he’ll choose to stick with the uber-right and let the deal collapse over the weekend. He can deal with the fallout on Monday, and as a bonus nobody is running the show anymore in DC as Blinken is too busy moving the boxes out and Biden is probably going to the beach. It’s “weekend at Bernies” the sequel.
Anyways, my own lame predictions aside, more popcorn, please!
The development makes Biden, Kamala Harris, and Antony Blinken’s Wednesday press conference look childish and irresponsible. By declaring peace before it was official, American leadership gave both Hamas and Israel the ability to use the kind of tactic Netanyahu says his adversaries are exploiting.
It doesn’t sound like Biden is trying to take credit for it so much as he is trying to sabotage it. . . its “childish and irresponsible” only if you want the deal to go down. Remember, Joe is the selfless hero that always puts the party before himself, so its clearly intended to prevent the ceasefire from taking place, not a reckless move to bolster his reputation.
No, he wanted this to be the capstone of his legacy. Biden got VERY snippy with a reporter when he tried suggesting that Trump deserved credit.
He was disgustingly messianic about the whole thing at the press conference. He stopped short of recommending himself for the Nobel Peace Prize, but only just.
I disagree – this whole operation reeks of a last ditch attempt by Biden to white-wash his genocidal policies, because legacy.
He could have just told Blinken to back off and make the hostages Trump’s problem. That would have been politically savvy. Handing a tarball to Brump so that he has to deal with it would have been sabotage.
I smell bad-faith here. Diplomacy requires artful work, not bullying and bludgeoning. Now we read that Netanyahu never had the votes for the deal. Surely, the dopes in Foggy Bottom knew that.
The whole thing stinks. Are we to really believe that Trump and rookie Witkoff have leverage over Bibi and the Israeli’s knowing the control the Lobby has over US politicians. It’s all to make Trump look like a strong leader/peacemaker and prepare the American people for an attack on Iran
And what control does the Lobby have–really–over Trump? Could this be the source of some of the TDS hysteria?
Without a doubt the Lobby owned Congress can throw many roadblocks in Trump’s way but Trump has the bully pulpit and the ability to say no on foreign policy. I think the mood is changing and the Israelis have much to fear from Trump opposition. At the end of the day Israel is far weaker than it wants to appear unless they wan’t to pull down the temple with the Samson Option.
100% agree with “the bully pulpit”. Bill Parcells just took over the team.
A question: Could DJT by executive order force AIPAC to register as the agent of a foreign country?
The Department of Justice handles FARA registration, I believe.
Regarding “The Lobby”:
After the episode with Wilcoff, which a commenter at Moon of Alabama described as pointing out which is the tail and which is the dog, we ought to be able to put that one to bed. Yes, the Israel lobby has a significant foothold in American politics, for the same reason that there is such cooperation in areas like technology and security, which is that Israel is an outpost of American imperialism. Whenever the power is exercised, U.S. presidents have been able to boss around Israeli prime ministers.
Some hold to the unevidenced view that Mossad has kompromat on any American politician of significance, to which I say show me the proof. It may occur; I don’t know. More probable is that American politicians in positions from which they can influence policy towards Israel are very much in the mainstream, meaning that they have racist, exceptionalist assumptions, or are climbers who don’t want to rock the boat, no matter who drowns.
If I may propose a philosophical razor, let’s have it that when cowardice and stupidity adequately explain a phenomenon, we don’t need to search further.
well said Vicky Cookies, I’ve come to agree these past few months seeing Israel as a junkyard dog. If I may use a scene from Godfather ll as a parable, Trump just shanked Fanucci. Like the future Don, nothing noble about it just signifying who’s in charge.
thank you Yves for this post and your analysis.
The whole point of kompromat as I understand it is you don’t show it to anyone – i.e., no one can show us the proof – until you need to actually use it. As long as it’s working the way it’s supposed to, we’ll never know anything about it.
BTW I’m not saying that I believe such kompromat even exists – but if it does, the proof of its existence must be kept secret until it needs to be put into play. FWIW I believe you’re correct that it isn’t even needed.
Old wine in new bottles until proven otherwise. What kind of proof? Actions and nothing but actions.
Great line. I think it is fishy, too, that the outlines of the “deal” are the same that Biden pushed back in May. And neither party agreed to.
You would think that to get movement, something would have to have changed. Maybe introducing UN peacekeepers to the Gaza strip, or something. The mere fact that it is warmed over gruel that both parties puked up for months tells me it is fraudulent by its very nature.
And old wine typically becomes (or is turned into) vinegar which may or may not be fit for consumption. We may not be given a choice – because ‘TINA’ dontchaknow. “Fool me once….”
It’s the same bottle, and the label. The vintage has been crossed over with a pen, and another one written.
The readership of Naked Capitalism see right through Netanyahu….
Though some still struggle with vision trough Trump’s, because of the extra blubber.
This Tweet/X was sobering.
Brian Berletic
@BrianJBerletic
Israel Ceasefire in Gaza
The US achieved all its goals, using Hamas to trigger a regional war finally eliminating Syria and wiping out Hezbollah’s senior leadership.
Iran is left weaker and more isolated than it has been in decades.
Israel is withdrawing its forces as it always does to reorganize and prepare for the next episode of violence which will be aimed at what’s left of Hezbollah, Yemen, Iraq, and Iran itself.
Israel pretends it is angry at being pressured into a ceasefire, Hamas supporters imagine they’ve achieved some sort of victory.
All of this will repeat itself again inevitably.
No matter how many times this grotesque theater is recycled, people’s emotions blind them from seeing clearly and keep them all locked in and committed to keeping this strategy of tension in play.
Just as I warned people about Hamas and October 7, 2023, I’m warning people about allowing their emotions to shape their perception of this current and only temporary pause.
Iran is next. This is a necessary and temporary pause to prepare for the next stage of reshaping and reasserting control over the region
This is a very poor take.
I do not know where Berletic got the claim that Hamas led to the fall of Syria. That was entirely due to Assad’s mismanagement of his situation, rebuffing offers of economic development support from Russia and China, and more substantial military support from Russia and Iran. He instead rebuffed them in favor of Qatar and the UAE, as if either could do him much good.
No one expected the attacks on Syria to lead to the fall of the government. It was strictly expected to be a harassment/at best small territorial seizure operation. Erdogan was mad about all of the Syrian refugees in Turkiye and was pressuring Assad to take more back. Erdogan was also wanting Assad to work with him to go after Kurdistan. The latter was a nutty demand, since that would mean taking on the US, but at the margin, there were probably things Assad could have done to placate Erdogan had Assad heard him out, which he repeatedly refused to do.
I remember reading an article in the New Yorker the year before the US decided to delete Syria of how well Syria was doing as a highly convivial place to live. I also remember the same thing was said about Lebanon from a friend who had lived in Lebanon during the sixties before the civil wars or at least the worst of them. What changed? The relentless and fanatical march of US imperialism. The question is will it continue as it has under Trump? Syria, btw, did have a way of life and a civilization at one time until the CIA/MI6/Mossad decided to destroy, not just the state, but the civilization–this was, btw, the goal of the imperialists clearly stated mainly in private but sometimes in public. You have to have had discussions (as I had) with intel types who operated in the region to know the deep hatred that existed (particularly Jewish members of that community) for all Muslims in West Asia particularly Arabs and Persians .
Lebanon and Syria were modern, secular societies with religious diversity and tolerance. Pretty much what the US claims to value.
But clearly the claims are just more PR and the US actually prefers headchoppers in charge.
So were Lybia and Yugoslavia. Also, free healthcare and education, and you can’t have that.
I think this illustrates why I’m hesitant to put much trust in interpretations of events by people like Berletic. To them, everything leads back to Washington DC, some great conspiracy that controls all things. It strikes me as the obverse of the weird notions on the other side that chalk up everything to Russian propaganda/machinations. Smaller actors not only have their own agency, they are often surprisingly influential–many of them are dominated by factionls that are singularly dedicated to drawing in great powers to do their dirty work for them, without costing themselves much (at least not to the people they consider important). That they have potential allies in Washington who think that these interventions are a good way to achieve their own geopolitical fantasies does not qualify as a “great conspiracy,” but, at most, a complex factional infighting where domestic factions enlist help of outsiders (on both sides). So, for all manner of historical and cultural reasons, Israel becomes a very useful prop for many US politicians and useful partners for certain factions in military industrial conmplex, and various factions in Israel expolot these in full to get US to do all manner of things for them. But it goes on only insofar as they are useful for domestic political fights go.
Given that Iran is signing a defense treaty with Russia in two days, and supposedly that Syria provided intel on Iranian arms shipments to the Resistance to the IDF (or was so riddled with spies as to be functionally the same), its strange to argue that Iran is more isolated. Further evidence is the Iranian-Saudi Rapproachment.
Quick scan of the headlines to assess the state of play.
(Poor mainstream media. They already wrote a bunch of hagiography praising Brump and Triden for their rising above politics to deliver a ceasefire, plus saving a bunch of cute kittens and bunnies, for grins. Now they’ll need to pull those stories fast. Or at least put them on ice until things clear up.)
Fox: “Deal in Jeopardy?” (Betteridge, I know.)
CNN : “Netanyahu makes rare political error, complicating approval of Gaza truce”
AP: “Netanyahu says last-minute crisis is holding up approval”
Reuters: “Israeli cabinet delay approval of Gaza ceasefire deal, as strikes on enclave kill 77” (oops, they let the quiet part come out.)
In the immortal words of Dubya, “this sucker could go down!”
T minus 23 hours until sundown in Tel-Aviv and the Sabbath.
Media still sticking to their “delayed not denied” narrative. NY times reporting though that there will be no vote until Friday. That leaves us in limbo …
I am actually looking for some justice for the Palestinians. I am waiting for ICJ to find Israel guilty of genocide.
I am looking forward for Israel to pay for every life they took, same way Germany pays to the descendents of the victims of Holocaust, and if no relatives left, to the Palestinian “state”.
I am looking for Israel to pay in fool for the reconstruction of Gaza.
I am looking for the punishment of those guilty of war crimes and for the banishment of all Israeli politicians involved in this crime.
Israel has to do like Germany after WWII to be re-accepted, otherwise, the valid blood libel will go on for the next 1,000 years.
Don’t count your chickens before they’re hatched.
Major shift at ICJ as pro-Israel judge poised for presidency
clip
The Zionists are playing 12 dimensional chess.
She still has only one vote among 13 or so, no?
She has a lot of control. Whether that’s enough to derail things I don’t know.
If Nazis had payed their dues, they woudn’t be repeating the excersise.
Me: Never trust the Brits, the Americans or the Israelis.
Chris Hedges – The Ceasefire Charade
It won’t look good for Trump, if Netanyahu rolls him. Whatever the details, it does seem a definite clash between them.
Though I suspect it was more some reality based Jewish friends, sick of the culture being drug through the mud, basically to keep Netanyahu out of jail, that was the real driving force.
My sense, long term, is a serious schism between the Zionists and much of the younger Jewish community, is in the process of developing.
Democracy Now
Daniel Levy, Muhammad Shehada, Jeremy Scahill on Ceasefire Deal, Trump’s Role & Palestine’s Future
I always find Daniel Levy worth listening to.
Netanyahu reminds me of the scorpion in Aesop’s Fables. His nature is to sting the frog that is carrying him midstream. If one assumes that Trump’s first order of business is to develop his team’s cohesion( weak or strong) and to project his leadership style (weak or strong); then a genuine cease fire will put the Likud Party into an existensial crisis. If Netanyahu embarrasses or challenges Trump, it will be interesting to see how Trump might react, E.G How can Trump negotiate with Putin or Xi if he comes across as weak as Biden.
What Israel, and the U.S. seem to ignore, is that this scorched earth policy in Gaza is creating a new generation of Palestinians, full of rage, having watched their children, parents, sisters, brothers, wives, et. al, being slaughtered with mostly American weapons, and who will become the next iteration of Hamas. Everyone in Israel will sleep with one eye open, waiting for the next wave of resistance. And Americans might well have another 9/11 moment. We seem to have learned nothing from this American experiment to control the planet, an experiment that has met with one failure after the next.
Based on a MoA commenter and CNN, the latest is that Bibi has kicked the can until Saturday evening (presumably after sundown, so as to observe the Sabbath) meaning that the Cabinet vote won’t happen until then.
And even if that passes, the full Knesset would still need to vote on Sunday … which further means that thanks to a mandatory 24-hour appeal window, the deal is now mathematically impossible to begin on Sunday.
There is a certain poetic justice to this latest turn of fate. It means that no deal will happen under Biden’s term. And they’ll go out like the lying punks that they are – promising a ceasefire that never happened under their watch.
It also is pathetic to hear Brump threatening Hamas like a child who can’t have his lollipop. Who does he think he is to demand that the stars align to suit him? What difference does it make if the implementation has to wait until Monday?
May God humble these cretins.
Trump said ‘all hell will break lose’. He didn’t threaten Hamas directly, though that has been the interpretation with some. Trump’s ego is the one known, how it plays out is the known unknown. Among others. Another known is that the Zionist playbook for the elimination of the Palestinians will not change. Until it is squashed.
Not sure if this belongs here, but Max Blumenthal was not the only reporter removed by force from that press conference with Blinken.
https://www.mikehampton.co.uk/p/genocide-anthony-blinken-max-blumenthal-sam-husseini
What a bunch of gutless wonders the rest of the group is.