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Links 1/24/2025

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Elephants can’t sue to leave the zoo, court rules WaPo

California Burning

Batteries (Not) Included The Brockovich Report

Nonstop Wildfires Are Straining the Global Arsenal to Fight Them Bloomberg

Climate

Brave scientists on ‘hurricane hunting’ plane used to study the world’s most lethal tempests prepare to fly into the raging heart of Storm Eowyn as it roars towards Britain Daily Mail. Commentary:

A third of the Arctic’s vast carbon sink now a source of emissions, study reveals Guardian

Earth’s Largest Organism Slowly Being Eaten, Scientist Says Science Alert

How Australia became a test bed for the future of farming FT

Water

‘Dam for a dam’: India, China edge towards a Himalayan water war Al Jazeera

Worrying Signs for Lake Erie Uncovered 7,500 Miles Away in Africa Newsweek

Syndemics

The threat of avian influenza H5N1 looms over global biodiversity Nature. “H5N1 is an outcome of unsustainable production systems that overexploit land and domestic animals.” And a round-up–

Nature Reviews: The Threat of Avian Influenza H5N1 Looms Over Global Biodiversity Avian Flu Diary

* * *

Analysis shows significant financial burden of long COVID in US Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy

China

China unleashes record short-term funds ahead of lunar new year FT

China’s overlapping tech-industrial ecosystems High Capacity. Handy chart:

* * *

China’s cheap, open AI model DeepSeek thrills scientists Nature. Commentary:

And:

And:

Robot dogs join Spring Festival fun as mini ‘lion dancers’ CGTN

‘Trillions of rupiah’ Indonesia’s central bank channelled to lawmakers allegedly misused: Anti-graft agency Channel News Asia

‘Unacceptable’: Indonesia rejects report of US relocation plan for Palestinians South China Morning Post

Syraqistan

Israel Isn’t Serious About the Gaza Cease-Fire. Nor Is Trump. Foreign Policy

Israel seeks 30-day extension for Lebanon withdrawal amid ceasefire concerns, reports claim EuroNews

Netanyahu’s Gov’t and Trump Administration Greenlight Jewish West Bank Terror Haaretz. In contrast to the headline (1):

And (2):

* * *

More than 2,400 aid trucks enter Gaza under truce, UN says no big looting issues Reuters

Israeli ban on UN agency could ‘sabotage’ Gaza ceasefire, says chief FT

* * *

Interpreting the 20-year military pact between Russia & Iran Responsible Statecraft

Trump says new nuclear deal with Iran can be brokered Anadolu Agency

* * *

Hamas commander reappears in Gaza despite Israeli assassination claims Anadolu Agency

Dear Old Blighty

Labour MPs ordered to sink landmark climate and environment bill Guardian. The deck: “Exclusive: Supporters of bill say Labour has already insisted on removal of clauses requiring UK to meet targets agreed at Cop and other summits.” Oh.

New Not-So-Cold War

Russian forces advance on seven key positions: These battles will determine the fate of the conflict RT. The deck: “An overview of the frontline situation – the key areas from north to south.”

Trump: Zelenskyy is “no angel” and he “shouldn’t have allowed this war to happen” Ukrainska Pravda

CIA Busy Polishing Its Ukraine Legacy Larry Johnson, Son of the New American Revolution

Trump Administration

“Blatantly unconstitutional”: Judge blocks Trump’s birthright citizenship order Axios

What to know about the ruling blocking Trump’s order on birthright citizenship AP

Veterans groups ask Trump to reconsider immigration executive order, cite impacts on Afghan partners FOX

MAYOR RAS J. BARAKA’S STATEMENT ON ICE RAID ON NEWARK BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENT City of Newark

Less process than ‘a traffic ticket’: ACLU sues to stop Trump’s fast-track deportation policy LA Times

Trump undercuts enforcement of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 Popular Information

* * *

US’ Trump signs executive order on crypto markets, digital asset stockpile Anadolu Agency. Commentary:

SEC Withdraws Controversial Crypto Tax Accounting Bulletin CoinDesk

* * *

Trump orders release of JFK, RFK and MLK assassination records AP. Commentary:

And:

JFK’s grandson issues stern message to Trump after decision to release classified Kennedy assassination files Daily Mail

* * *

Trump’s latest hires and fires rankle Iran hawks as new president suggests nuclear deal FOX

AP style guidance on Gulf of Mexico, Mount McKinley AP

Big Brother Is Watching You Watch

We are all Big Brother now Boston Globe. The deck: “The largest system of surveillance isn’t run by the government or corporations. It’s the grass-roots panopticon we’re using to judge one another.”

Digital Watch

Leaked documents expose deep ties between Israeli army and Microsoft 972 Magazine. The deck: “Since Oct. 7, the Israeli military has relied heavily on cloud and AI services from Microsoft and its partner OpenAI, while the tech giant’s staff embed with different units to support rollout, a joint investigation reveals.”

Developer Creates Infinite Maze That Traps AI Training Bots 404 Media

Siri Is Super Dumb and Getting Dumber Daring Fireball

LinkedIn accused of using private messages to train AI BBC

The Final Frontier

Notes of concern: ‘chorus waves’ found by China-led study sound alarms for space travel South China Morning Post

Imperial Collapse Watch

Aircraft carrier contrarianism:

Class Warfare

Defense (of the internet) (from billionaires) in depth Cory Doctorow, Pluralistic

Antidote du jour (Derek Keats):

Bonus antidote:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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97 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    “Trump says new nuclear deal with Iran can be brokered”

    That’s going to be a neat trick since it was Trump himself who pulled out of the nuclear deal as soon as he took office back in 2016. As far as Iranian nukes are concerned and stopping them, he says ‘there are ways that you can make it absolutely certain, if you make a deal’ which is quite true. But that would only be half the deal. The Iranians themselves would want to make certain that the US did not renege on any agreements made as they have a history. It happened before. When the first deal was signed a whole range of sanctions was lifted off Iran but then Obama put on a whole new series of sanctions which made the EU for example wary about doing any financial dealings with Iran. And the US had snap-back provisions hanging over Iran’s head like a Damoclean sword. It won’t be an easy deal to make because of all this and Iran will want actual guarantees here and I mean real guarantees with teeth. And of course Netanyahu will be wagging his finger at Trump and saying don’t you dare make a deal with Iran. So maybe Trump should not have reneged on that deal the first time around?

    1. Vicky Cookies

      The sanctions against Iran make for a negotiating environment in which their government is basically incentivized to continue their nuclear program for leverage. It’s a difficult situation, because the program’s existence also makes Israeli aggression likelier, which in turn makes Iran likelier to develop a bomb for deterrence. Sanctions are tricky to remove, apparently, and particularly stupid and cruel in that there has never been a case, to my knowledge, of a government falling due to popular pressure regarding sanctions, which is their stated intent. Cubans and Venezuelans and Iranians can discern who their tormenter is, and domestic and international opinion tends to give a bit of grace to governments under siege.

      1. Michaelmas

        What Vicky Cookies says.

        Also, there’ve been good reasons to believe the Iranians when, hitherto, they’ve claimed that they haven’t wanted to become a nuclear power as it’s ‘non-Islamic’ etc. Two point, especially —

        [1] When Israel was assassinating Iranian nuclear physicists 16-18 years ago, the victims were physicists who were experts in laser isotope separation, or LIS —

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_vapor_laser_isotope_separation

        Essentially, LIS is a technology enabling weapon-grade enrichment of fissile material in a physical space that’s the size of a large garage. It bypasses entirely the need for large complexes containing hundreds of centrifuges to do enrichment.

        LIS is also an extremely demanding technology that arguably remains beyond most nations’ capabilities even now. The Iranians had scientists who’d mastered it because in general Iran is a highly technologically capable culture.

        Given that technological capability, it’s likely that if they’d truly wanted to build nuclear/thermonuclear weapons before now, the Iranians would have.

        [2] There have also been good strategic reasons why the Iranians would not want to build nuclear weapons, aside from the non-Islamic thing.

        They know from nuclear history that one country getting nukes can trigger a regional chain reaction: in the 1960s, for instance, China going nuclear made India follow, leading Pakistan to do likewise.

        Iran building its first nukes could, similarly, lead Egypt and the Saudis to do the same. Most of Earth’s land surface would then become one continuous zone of nuclear states—all neighbors with long histories of mutual hostility—extending from Israel and Egypt in the west, on through Iran, Pakistan, and India, to China, Russia and North Korea, in the east.

        A nightmare, arguably. Still, as Vicky Cookies suggests, if the US/Israel continue to threaten Iran existentially, the Iranians may then decide all bets are off and continue their nuclear weapons program to completion.

  2. Wukchumni

    Elon said, “America, you’re gonna’ drive me to drinkin’
    If you don’t get rid of that lowly Lincoln”

    Have you heard this story of what he wanted to replace
    When Lincolns was settin’ the lowest financial pace
    That story is true
    I’m here to say
    The zinc lobby shouldn’t be in play

    It’s got the Lincoln Memorial on the back
    and it costs 3x face value to make
    And according to economic diktat-a huge mistake
    It’s got 97.5% zinc composition y’all
    It’s got a copper coating, and that is all

    With no buying power
    No matter the cost
    They can really get lost
    It’s got no reason to be, but he ain’t scared
    Chances of dismissal are good, more than fair

    Now everybody was ribbin’ him for bein’ a horse’s behind
    So he thought he’d make the Lincoln Cent unwind
    Put DOGE hammer down and man alive
    He shoved the denomination out of sight

    Now the numismatists all thought he’d lost sense
    And issued since 1793, to stop now would be an offense
    He said, “Slow down! I see lots!
    The Lincolns I see lying on the sidewalk just look like dots”

    This was of course to no avail
    And as for the Denver & Philadelphia mints it was time to bail
    And Elon said, “America, you’re gonna’ drive me to drinkin’
    If you don’t stop makin’ those good for nothing Lincolns!”

    Hot Rod Lincoln, performed by Commander Cody & his Lost Planet Airmen

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBUfNxfc2w4

    1. mrsyk

      Best results if read aloud in a low gravely voice. Good one, thanks.
      drive me to drinkin’ indeed, ha, get in line.

      1. Paul Simmons

        Commander Cody did not sing, he just sorta growled. It was early rap.saw them in person several times. Lots of fun

  3. Zagonostra

    >We are all Big Brother now Boston Globe

    Pushback on grass-roots surveillance can’t take the same route as criticisms of government and corporate surveillance…Perhaps most important, we can start teaching the value of privacy and the dangers of vigilante surveillance to our children.

    The children again, yes we need to teach and protect our children. Nothing wrong with “pushing back on grass-roots surveillance” but can we first focus on government surveillance?

    1. Stephanie

      I found it interesting that Levinovitz doesn’t recognize his “do better” solution would itself be a form of self-censorship should anyone adopt it.

  4. The Rev Kev

    “AP style guidance on Gulf of Mexico, Mount McKinley”

    So let’s see if I have these names straight-

    -The centuries old Gulf of Mexico name is now changed to the Gulf of America.
    -North America’s tallest peak, Denali in Alaska, goes back to being named Mount McKinley.
    -The Sea of Cortez is the Gulf of California.
    -The Persian Gulf is the Arabian Gulf.
    -Canada is now the 51st State. Oh wait, that isn’t official yet.

    So what happens when Trump renames Mars as the planet Elon?

    1. jrkrideau

      The Persian Gulf is the Arabian Gulf.

      Depending on which side of the Gulf you were living on it could be either. I used to say Arabian Gulf myself since I was in Saudi Arabia.

  5. Wukchumni

    Nonstop Wildfires Are Straining the Global Arsenal to Fight Them Bloomberg
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    One of the cabin owners in our mountain community is a fire captain in a coastal city, and he and his fellow firefighters are often called off to ‘away games’ during fire season and he related that it’s kinda similar to an NFL player enduring a full season, you’re beat and tired, and need rest when the rains eventually come and put paid to anymore conflagration consternation.

    But that was then and this is now, so imagine asking NFL players to do 46 games a year?

    We’re undermanned and under-planed and under-planned.

    You can make more making fries @ McDonalds than stopping fires in California as a lowly grunt firefighter, how crazy is that?

    1. mrsyk

      how crazy is that? Ask a public school teacher.
      We’ve discussed this before, bears repeating. A national YCC program for forest management, awesome outdoor jobs for the 18-22 y/o crowd. I guess the risk is grooming environmental activists, sigh.

    2. Socal Rhino

      I am not sure your last point is accurate. My neighbor’s son trained as a firefighter, and I am told he made bank working on wildfires for a couple of years before taking a position in a local force. Maybe you are referring to the pay rate for convict fighters?

      1. Wukchumni

        A year or 2 ago in Boise Idaho, Biden proudly announced that the wage per hour would be $15 for firefighters, and keep in mind they only get paid when fighting fires.

        1. juno mas

          The pay grade for federal wildland firefighters is GS-3 through GS-10. A newbie would begin at GS-3. The actual pay($) they receive depends on the number of days spent on the fireline. There is a pay adjustment for firefighter work location. (California is ~40% above the base rate.) A GS-3 fighting the Pallisades fire (on federal land) would have a base rate of ~$43000/ year. A GS-10 would make over $100K/year.

          Obviously, you can’t fight fires year round, but many do spend more than six months doing so across the nation in the summer. It is very hard work and newbies are mostly young men.

    3. The Rev Kev

      You’d think that after seeing the colossal amount of damage caused by those recent fires in California, that they would have a better appreciation for the work that those firefighters do. But truthfully I have not seen people in the main stream media thanking them much but with the attention on those private firefighters instead.

    4. JP

      We’re talking about grunts on the ground here. They are important but play a nitch role in most brush fires and no role at all in residential fires. I think the hot shot crews work for the prestige as much as the money.

      If at all possible fire lines are made with heavy equipment that involves a low bed truck and driver, a dozer operator, and fuel and maintenance crew. Last I checked it costs at least $10K per day for a pumper just to sit on standby and they flock to a fire from far and wide.

      The big money is all aerial. Helicopters dropping water and winged aircraft are directed from the ground and coordinated by a command helicopter above.

      When a fire is burning the money is limitless. It is a monetary feeding frenzy and no one is going to say it costs too much. When it comes to mitigation, thinning, prescriptive burning and cutting fire breaks, many are the ones that say it cost too much.

      And then Trump says the problem is California does not take care of it’s forests. That is absolutely false. CA state forests are well maintained. It is the federal forests in CA that are choked with understory and small firs packed too close to penetrate for man or deer.

      2. Wukchumni

        Yes, the grunts on the ground don’t make much, but what a payday for a bulldozer operator, no D-9’ing it.

        The lessened numbers of fire folk in the lower pay scale is indicative that they not only can’t make a living, but its also tremendously draining work.

  6. ilsm

    I follow Big Serge, although he writes a lot of words on his substack. I sometimes agree with him, he is interesting.

    Big Serge often reposts “arm chair…..”

    I take except to nuclear carriers long length of deployment! They may not need oilers for “bunker fuel” but they need oilers for jet fuel. Which I would note they drove the USAF to go to a kerosene based fuel because the aircraft fuel burning is a huge risk. The other risk to a carrier is “ready munition” stores blowing up from a “hit”. Study the effects on US and IJN carriers of hits that did great damage. The hazards exist today.

    Back to logistics. The US Naval Ships exist to feed the fleet. A few months ago US oiler capacity stretched thin already took a “hit” when an oiler backed up (?) on a reef and damaged its steering.

    Aircraft carriers remain at sea by “on weigh” replenishment. Take out the oilers and those F-35’s that need 16000 pounds of jet fuel become hangar deck ornaments.

    By late WW II in the Pacific US Navy was very good at “on weigh” replenishment. It took time and building a lot of logistic ships. Every major fleet operation required oilers, etc. Late war this need hindered the IJN, possible reason that their battle fleet withdrew from the Samar engagement off Leyte. Had they gone in they would have lost ships running out of fuel, easy kills when Halsey came back.

    The effectiveness of 12 billion dollar gunboats has not been denied. But in a big war….

    Off Okinawa and the Philippines US carrier attrition was significant. Today USN does not have an “order book” with a dozen or so carriers as in 1944.

    1. The Rev Kev

      Can you imagine what would happen if the US got into a military fight with China? And China simply sank all those oilers and any other logistics ship in the first few weeks? I have no idea why but the modern US Navy does not seem to be a believe in logistics at all and has only a very narrow bench of support vessels. Is it because aircraft carriers and cruisers and subs are considered more sexy? The Great God of Logistics is not one to be ignored with impunity.

      1. Randall Flagg

        Completely agree, sink the supply equipment and it’s likely over.

        What’s easier to sell to captured Congresscritters and shareholders, a bunch of low rent blue collar workhorse supply ships or fancy fighter jets and the carriers that move them? Maybe the profit potential of fancy equipment over basic equipment?

        1. MicaT

          Just spitballing here but hasn’t Yemen, stopped pretty much all traffic through the suez canal?

          And the might of the US navy hasn’t been able to stop it?

          Im sure that a small backward country like China would have no response to an aircraft carrier.

      3. Emma

        Do they even need to take out the logistics ships? The Fat Leonard scandal completely wrecked the US Pacific command for a decade. Maybe just put in substandard parts into these ships and the fleet will go down in a few years.

        1. scott s.

          I don’t think Fat Leonard “completely wrecked” the Pacific Fleet, but that and the McCain and Fitzgerald collisions showed that eliminating the logistics hub at Subic Bay without a real replacement was a mistake. We were too dependent on contractors managed from Singapore. I might be biased as one of my tours was at Naval Logistics Command, Pacific Fleet and we “owned” the logistics infrastructure in Guam, Japan, and Philippines. That has gone away.

      4. cfraenkel

        Is it because aircraft carriers and cruisers and subs are considered more sexy?
        No one gets promoted for driving a fuel truck back and forth.

    2. JMH

      If carriers are to be platforms for drones, need they be as gigantic as the current ones? “Arm chair” claims hypersonics cannot his moving targets. Even if true. for how long will that be so? How many ways can a carrier be put out of action even if it is not sunk? Deny it under weigh replenishment. Sink the oilers. A couple of leakers punch holes in the flight deck. No need for hypersonics. Damage the propellers. Damage the steering. Punch a hole or two in the hull. Have defenses that keep the carrier beyond the effective range of its weapons. Any or all of these defensive tactics are available at a fraction of the cost of construction of the carrier and its aircraft and/or drones not to mention the lives of pilots who are far less replaceable that their equipment. My preference would be for carriers that were far smaller, much less expensive in time and money to build, more agile, and primarily a platform for drones. I am spitballing here. I did my time in the army over fifty years ago, but no pretense that I have direct knowledge of matters naval.

      1. The Rev Kev

        Can you imagine a container ship sailing not that far from a naval fleet. Suddenly, all the sides of the containers facing the sea are blown off and hundreds of drones are launched from inside. They start making their way to that naval force and skim the wave tops to make them difficult to see on radar. When they reached their targets they zoom up into the air a coupla dozen yards, flip over, and then power straight down on top of those ships. It would be mayhem. But I agree with your thought of smaller carriers as the way to go. it seems the logical choice.

        1. vao

          I presume there will be a trade-off regarding those military drones:

          1) big drones that can fly high and far for a long time — but are relatively easy to detect and defend against (as Ansarallah has been demonstrating by shooting down one Reaper drone after another, and the Russians by goring the Bayraktar drones early in the war against Ukraine);

          2) small drones that are very agile and difficult to detect — but that come with a much shorter range, a much smaller ammunition load, and require some on-board autonomous navigation to escape electronic counter-measures.

          Then there are naval drones; perhaps these can be designed to sail long distances, and will actually replace the torpedo-boats of yesteryear and the submarines of today.

        3. Any Day Now

          The novel Ghost Fleet covers this

          Set in the near future, the book portrays a scenario in which a post-communist China, assisted by Russia, launches a technologically sophisticated attack against the United States in the Pacific Ocean that leads to the occupation of the Hawaiian Islands.

    3. scott s.

      It’s not just the CLF to be concerned about. The reduction of west coast refining capacity means the source of fuel is going to be difficult. The closing of major, hardened DLA-E facilities at San Pedro and Red Hill means USN is dependent on commercial storage state-side. (It’s not like Ukraine hasn’t demonstrated the vulnerability of fuel storage to attack.) MSC owned and chartered tanker fleet that has to move fuel from west coast to CONSOL locations of CLF ships or forward fuel storage (if such is even going to be available) is also limited.

      And I think the reference is to underway replenishment (UNREP).

      Overall for CLF history, I think problems began in post-VN drawdown when the mission-specific force commands were combined into the “surface force command”. That was supposed to give better support for CLF (and amphib and mine) but I think the reality is they became seen as less vital as just part of the overall mix. Then the geniuses during the post-cold war “peace dividend” decided to “save money” by moving all the CLF ships from the active force into the MSC civilian force.

      As far as CVN vulnerability, I’m a little concerned that we haven’t sustained our anti-submarine capability as well as we need to. No doubt the Virginias are highly capable, but are there enough of them. For surface ships the SQQ-89 is after my time and I don’t have a feel for its anti-sub capabilities. But ASW seems to me a fruitful area for AI.

  7. LawnDart

    Fantastic posts in AI and China today: seems we’re witnessing transition from “shiny new thing” to “forgotten toys” in record-time.

    1. Jason Boxman

      The good news in that perhaps this bursts this stupid bubble, and it becomes cheap to see just how garbage these things are for most tasks.

      Then we can move on to the next grift, maybe AI-web-4 or something.

    2. oliverks

      I’ve been exploring the capabilities of DeepSeek V3 and R1, and I’m impressed with their performance. I recently wrote an article on my experience with these tools, which can be found here:

      Is NVIDIA’s GPU Empire Based On Sand?

      I’m now investigating the possibility of running DeepSeek V3 on Nvidia’s 3 Digit 3000 series. Specifically, I’m curious to know the scalability limits of this setup and how many units can be effectively stacked together. Interestingly, I’ve come across two groups that claim to have successfully run DeepSeek V3 on clusters of standard m4 Macs, which suggests that distributed computing may be a viable option for this application.

  8. Zagonostra

    >Developer Creates Infinite Maze That Traps AI Training Bots 404 Media

    And so the Web Bot War (WBW I) begins and spins…

    A pseudonymous coder has created and released an open source “tar pit” to indefinitely trap AI training web crawlers in an infinitely, randomly-generating series of pages to waste their time and computing power.

    1. Lee

      …’tar pit’ to indefinitely trap AI training web crawlers in an infinitely, randomly-generating series of pages to waste their time and computing power.

      Don’t human internet users often behave in the same way? The search of one thing leads to another thing, then to another and so on down the rabbit hole. Everything is connected to everything after all.

    2. Bugs

      Sounds like the notorious and strangely beautiful jodi dot org

      In its heyday it could drive you to reboot just to escape its madness inducing browser takeover. I think it’s fairly safe to play with now.

    3. jefemt

      If anything could interest me less than AI, I would be surprised. Didn’t Trump just pledge $500 Billion to Sam Altman and American AI? The China open source low to no cost alternative, if it’s for realz, is the most heartening thing I have heard in five days.

      No mention of carbon-based energy demand to power it (for what beneficial purpose escapes me…)
      Good to see the Chinese are going to dam the Tsangpo! (See al jazeer link above)

      Great book on the deepest gorge: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/406987.The_Heart_of_the_World

  9. VTDigger

    Re: Aircraft carriers

    Counterpoint, drone swarms.

    Drone boats, drone subs, classic air suicide drones etc. Cheap, plentiful. Can be launched from a standard container sitting on…anything that floats really. Any container ship could now be a launch platform. No need to waste an expensive Sarmat even. You could sure, the target is hardly ‘moving’ at 30kt.

    1. Kurtismayfield

      Drone swarms make me think of using escort carriers filled with them to carry as many as you can. It could cause a change in doctrine for the Navy, but it would be so much cheaper.

    2. scott s.

      OK, let’s say a container ship is your launch platform. How does it get targeting info? Comm links from elsewhere? Onboard sensors?

  10. Zagonostra

    >China’s cheap, open AI model DeepSeek thrills scientists Nature. Commentary:

    These models generate responses step-by-step, in a process analogous to human reasoning. This makes them more adept than earlier language models at solving scientific problems and could make them useful in research. Initial tests of R1, released on 20 January, show that its performance on certain tasks in chemistry, mathematics and coding is on par with that of o1 — which wowed researchers when it was released by OpenAI in September.

    Ok, now Trump’s announcement of a $500 Billion AI initiative makes sense. It’s not really about finding a cure for cancer, that would be a ancillary benefit. It’s about keeping ahead of China’s “DeepSeek” and it’s potential use in “solving scientific problems,” aka military/tech advances. A “deep fake” to fight “deep seek.”

    1. Mikel

      “Published under an MIT licence, the model can be freely reused but is not considered fully open source, because its training data has not been made available.”

      Still no reveal of the real brains.

        1. vao

          How much of it is the Chinese part of the Internet, which is possibly not accessible from outside China?

          1. Not Bob

            Most of the Chinese internet is available, it’s just slow because the GFW inspects your packets. Also, Chinese web UX is pretty awful, and the norms about where things are/how to find them are a bit weird.

            The bigger issue is calling out to the non-Chinese internet. In my experience though VPNs are so prevalent in China that this is more an obstacle than a barrier

      2. Random

        They’re not going to give you the data because it’s stolen data like everyone else’s.
        There’s just no way to make “good” LLMs without downloading the whole internet.

      3. Vandemonian

        “Sill no reveal of the real brains.”

        That’s because there are no “real brains” involved, Mikel. Despite all the hype and hucksterism, AI doesn’t provide anything approaching human (or any) thinking. The process just slurps up everything it can find on the Internet, sorts and categorizes it, and uses the result to guess what word it should insert next in order to pretend to be smart.

        As Emily Bender suggested in 2021, it’s just a stochastic parrot, regurgitating what it’s been fed:
        https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3442188.3445922

        In some settings, AI’s ability to summarise and crystallise a large corpus can be useful, but its effectiveness relies on a sound knowledge and understanding of what training data has been used, and the quality and reliability of that data. If the source data is biased or nefarious or rubbish, then the output will be biased or nefarious or rubbish.

        As for its use in scientific research, it’s akin to Gresham’s law. Money and effort devoted to the use of AI will crowd out or starve opportunities for human intelligence (and even genius) to consider interesting problems and find novel or “breakthrough” solutions.

        At least DeepSeek has the potential to slash the astronomical budgets currently dedicated to AI development, provided it’s not sanctioned as a way of protecting the gravy train.

    2. Zephyrum

      It’s about keeping ahead of China’s “DeepSeek” and it’s potential use in “solving scientific problems,” aka military/tech advances. A “deep fake” to fight “deep seek.”

      I’m sure that is how it is being sold within the Beltway. However I suspect the real business model is to assemble a bunch of money in one place so it’s easier to steal.

    3. scott s.

      According to their github repo DeepSeek V3 the recommended front end to run the model SGLang requires 8 NVidia H200 GPUs so nothing you are going to just run for fun.

      1. converger

        Yeah, but at $200k all-in, including all the fancy H200 GPUs, DeepSeek 3 is well within reach of any research or educational enterprise or institution – unlike OpenAI and its ilk. Plus you own it on your own servers, and train specialized models on content that is custom tuned to your task. Plus, computing hardware prices aside, insanely lower hit on energy and water. This is a big deal.

  11. The Rev Kev

    “Israel seeks 30-day extension for Lebanon withdrawal amid ceasefire concerns, reports claim”

    Of course they do. The Israelis are discovering that it is taking too long to bulldoze each and every home in southern Lebanon and need at least another month to finish the job – at least.

    1. griffen

      Yeah I enjoyed the distraction. Needed a reason to smile, and getting break from a monotonous type of week…Those goats just seem almost too happy at jumping around!

    1. The Rev Kev

      More likely tick, tick, tick in this context. Come to think of it, isn’t Manitoba in Canada known as the ‘land of 100,000 lakes?’

      2. wendigo

        Used to be, but because Minnesota had first claimed to be the land of 10 000 lakes Manitoba had to change.

        I guess 10 000 American lakes are better than 100 000 socialist lakes.

    1. KLG

      Depends on the discipline? Basic sciences faculty (biology, chemistry, physics) in Morningside Heights and non-clinical research faculty in the College of Physicians & Surgeons are often required to get much of their salary from grants. Graduate programs in the social sciences and humanities in Morningside Heights? Grants are generally too few and too small for salary support. Many of the faculty in Morningside Heights are probably on 9-month contracts, with a stipend for summer teaching and/or research.

      1. mrsyk

        Good point. My source from Epi, Need to dig up a contact in the humanities.
        Overall, we can see from their most recent financial statement that “federal grants” and “federal contracts” make up a bit more than 20% of their “total operating revenues and support”.

  15. Wukchumni

    Couple sues JetBlue after watermelon-sized chunk of ice crashes through bedroom ceiling

    A California couple is suing JetBlue for $1 million – claiming a massive chunk of ice from one its planes crashed through their bedroom ceiling.

    In a complaint filed earlier this month, Michael Reese and Leah Ferrarini said a watermelon-sized block of ice slammed into their roof home landed “directly over their bed” just after 8 p.m. last January.

    https://nypost.com/2025/01/21/business/couple-sues-jetblue-plane-after-watermelon-sized-chunk-of-ice-crashes-through-home/
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Would that be a ‘Shitcicle’?

    2. Screwball

      Like it or not, we have seen more activity from the White House in the last 4 days than we’ve seen in the last 4 years.

  19. CA

    “Fight Food Insecurity in Israel”: Temple Emanu-El

    January 24, 2025

    From the morning mail; I am solicited.

  20. flora

    An executive order: from twtr-X

    President Trump has signed an executive order banning Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)

    https://x.com/DC_Draino/status/1882536292652880042

    full text.

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/strengthening-american-leadership-in-digital-financial-technology/

    The whole order reads like protection for private crypto vs a govt CBDC, imo.
    On the otherhand, prohibiting CBDC in the US is a good thing. So, mixed bag. I’ll take the CBDC ban. / ;)

  21. AG

    re: UKR biolabs

    How serious is the available info on the biolab claims?

    The German site Telepolis again rejected the claims as false and “conspiracy theory” linking to this piece by FOREIGN POLICY

    False Claims of U.S. Biowarfare Labs in Ukraine Grip QAnon
    The conspiracy theory has been boosted by Russian and Chinese media and diplomats.
    By Justin Ling, a journalist based in Toronto.

    March 2, 2022
    https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/02/ukraine-biolabs-conspiracy-theory-qanon/

    Telepolis is defending its decisions to suspend its entire article archive pre-2021 i.e. 50k texts. This decision caused some uproar.

    Now their senior editor turns tables on the critics here (it´s written as an open letter to another journalist):
    https://archive.is/S1CjP
    German oiginal
    https://www.telepolis.de/features/Revolutionaere-ohne-Recherche-Junge-Welt-im-Kampf-gegen-den-Klassenfeind-KI-und-Telepolis-10254852.html

    One case in point to justify taking offline their entire archive is the false story about the biolabs stated by one of those articles Telepolis has suspended. (they call it quality offensive)

    excerpt from that text by the German Telepolis editor :

    “Or the Manova magazine (motto: “Happiness and joy in life are political”), which just a few days ago spread the now repeatedly refuted theory that the USA had set up secret laboratories in Ukraine to develop biological weapons that would kill Russians.
    As evidence, this online medium, whose position on Telepolis you essentially share, cites information from a blogger who is now calling on humanity, with images of saints and the German flag , to prepare for Armageddon, God’s final decisive battle.
    Conspiracy in Ukraine?
    Incidentally, the article about the bioweapons laboratory conspiracy was one of the texts that apparently appeared unverified on Telepolis before 2021. That was unprofessional and unfair to the many colleagues who worked cleanly at the time. To publish this text again today – knowing the background and people behind this tall tale – is absurd and irresponsible.”

    Why the Russian presentation of evidence at the United Nations is not mentioned in his text in some form I don’t know.

    A prominent (formerly?) alternative site that engages into the narrative that something that sounds outrageous is a “conspiracy” unless confirmed by US government bodies is an alarming signal.

    1. Michaelmas

      If ” the background and people behind this tall tale” make it absurd, here’s evidence from US authorities and Western media attesting to the reality of those biolabs and what they were doing.

      [1] Here’s a 2016 DARPA document describing a project called Insect Allies.
      DARPA Enlists Insects to Protect Agricultural Food Supply: New program aims for insect delivery of protective genes to modify mature plants within a single growing season
      https://www.darpa.mil/news-events/2016-10-19

      The program, sited at labs in Ukraine and Georgia, aimed at “insect vector optimization, and selective gene therapy in mature plants … to support the goal of rapidly transforming mature plants … without the need for extensive infrastructure.”
      Why would spraying be an “extensive infrastructure,” but insects spreading CRISPR-edited pathogens designed to edit plant chromosomes not be? Very obviously, normal spraying becomes too much “infrastructure” when it’s infeasible to do it because the territory you intend to spray is enemy territory.

      [2] Another DARPA document describes this project in more detail —
      https://www.darpa.mil/program/insect-allies
      “Insect Allies performer teams are leveraging a natural and efficient two-step delivery system to transfer modified genes to plants: insect vectors and the plant viruses they transmit. The program’s three technical areas—viral manipulation, insect vector optimization, and selective gene therapy in mature plants—layer together to support the goal of rapidly modifying plant traits ….”

      [3] Here’s a 2018 paper from scientists at the Max Planck Institute laying out the obvious bioweaponeering possibilities —
      Agricultural research, or a new bioweapon system?
      https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aat7664

      A link to the full PDF at the Max Planck Institute —
      http://web.evolbio.mpg.de/HEGAAs/files/reeves_etal.pdf

      The paper argues that (a) DARPA provided absolutely no persuasive reasons for the use of insects as an uncontrolled means of dispersing synthetic viruses into the environment and (b) it could be more easily used for biological warfare than for routine agricultural use. “It is very much easier to kill or sterilize a plant using gene editing than it is to make it herbicide or insect-resistant.” True enough.

      [4] Merely as a bioweapon to cause crop failures, then, the Insect Allies program is part of a long lineage of programs that both the US and the erstwhile USSR carried out during the Cold War. The release of classical agents — as opposed to designer pathogens as with ‘Insect Allies’ — to cause crop failures or, alternatively, flu or some such ailment in human populations (and so degrade the other side’s industrial production) was done by both sides, according to accounts I got from former DIA (the United States DIA, not the UK’s) and USAMRIID employees, and former members of Biopreparat, the Soviet-era bioweapons program, whom I also talked to.

      [5] It’s 2025. In principle, with ‘Insect Allies’ insects could carry designer pathogens that chromosomally edit crop plants to produce substances which are toxic or intoxicating to humans in contact with them.

      [6] Again, too, it’s dual use technology. I know DARPA went to Flagship Pioneering, the biotech VC group responsible for Moderna and its RNA vaccine, and said: ‘can you do something with this technology?’ The result is this company Invaio —
      https://www.flagshippioneering.com/companies/invaio

      And I know this because I did some freelance work for Flagship related to Inari, noted the resemblance to the Insect Allies technology, and a Flagship partner confirmed that, indeed, it had come from DARPA.

      [7] Moving on: alongside accusing US biolabs in Ukraine and Georgia of developing the use of insects as BW vectors, Russia also charged the US with working with hantaviruses. See forex —

      Russian inquiry has evidence US biolabs in Ukraine worked with hantaviruses
      https://tass.com/politics/1447467
      True goals behind US biological research revealed in Ukraine — Russian Defense Ministry

      For those who don’t know: Hataviruses are RNA viruses causing chronic asymptomatic infection in rodents. Humans become infected through contact with rodent urine, saliva, or feces, resulting in hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), or hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. Rodents are the vector.

      [8] Now here are Western media reports of its deployment against Russian troops in the Ukraine war during 20222-23–

      What is ‘mouse fever’, the illness causing Russian soldiers to bleed from their eyes?
      https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/what-is-mouse-fever-the-illness-causing-russian-soldiers-to-bleed-from-their-eyes-13531222.html

      Russian soldiers are facing a ‘mouse fever’ outbreak on the frontlines, Ukrainian intel says
      https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-soldiers-mouse-fever-outbreak-frontlines-ukraine-inteligence-2023-12

    2. AG

      Does anyone happen to have the 300 page report the RUs submitted to the UN end of Nov. 2022 on Ukrainian biolabs?
      I am looking at the site of the UN Biological Weapons section but so far its countless meetings documented there without that one search hit.

      1. Michaelmas

        It’s mostly complaints about hantavirus manipulation. I’ve looked for it too. I concluded they took it offline. I’ve seen it happen before with bioweapons-related stuff.

        However, there’s plenty of other documentary evidence out there, including material from DARPA and the Western media that’s too widely disseminated to be wiped. I’ve a post in moderation here, which if it gets out has some of it.

        1. jrkrideau

          I was looking for it about a year ago with no success. Here is a link to what I believe is the original UN presentation on the biolabs.

          It must be just coincidence that Lt.-Gen. Igor Kirillov of the Directorate of the Radiation, Chemical and Biological Defense Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation & his assistant Ilya Polikarpov were assassinated in December of 2024.

          I do not have a link but if you want to see a deer-in-the-headlights look you want to see Victoria Nuland in a Congressional hearing explaining how “they” were doing their best to evacuate material from Ukrainian laboratories before the Russians got there. She clearly was not expecting to testify.

        2. AG

          Before this a longer message of mine just got posted while I was not yet finished editing. I have no clue what errors are now in there…

        3. AG

          In case my initial post got lost I think it contained these 2 links:

          In lieu of the 300-page report for the UN from late 2022 at least this report to the Russian Federation from June 2023:

          1 June 2023
          The Outcome Report of the Parliamentary Commission on Investigation into the Circumstances Related to Creation of Biological Laboratories by U.S. Specialists on the Territory of Ukraine
          https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/international_safety/1873584/

          I have only taken a quick look. I believe they have no smoking gun as proof which is unsurprising with the intricacies of dual-use technology and that no government will openly do research into what is military intent.

          That’s basically the blueprint for all illegal actions undertaken by the US government – use legal disguises to mislead so-called journalists (Aegis Ashore, support of Banderites, attacking Crimea via “grain deal”, taking over Crimea via alleged agreements with Porochenko etc.). Or rather: Make it easier for journalists to ignore the ugly truth.

          This summary of Russia’s UN actions as usual in biased form. Zero consideration of the Russian perspective. After all ACA should be scientists…

          U.S., Ukraine Refute Russian Bioweapons Charges
          October 2022
          By Leanne Quinn
          https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2022-10/news/us-ukraine-refute-russian-bioweapons-charges

          p.s. It is surprising though that with all the declassified documents on nefarious US actions since 1945 still when it comes to the actual present day the Western publics cannot get themselves to conclude that the US still is a nefarious power, actually worse than ever. And is committing war crimes constantly.

    3. vao

      I have had the growing feeling for the past year that telepolis is slowly undergoing an evolution similar to the one that affected Counterpunch (which I have entirely given up reading).

  22. Tom Stone

    What an exciting time to be alive!
    The assassination Docs are about to be released, it turns out that NAIAD was funding Gain of Function research at WIV…this looks like several powerful factions are fighting for control of the Narrative and all kinds of interesting information is leaking through the cracks.
    This is part of what happens when a high trust society turns into a low trust society with critical institutions requiring a high degree of trust to function.
    Public Health is one of the most important examples, the “Law” is another.
    It’s already crazy and it is going to get crazier, enjoy the show!

    1. Procopius

      The executive order about releasing the assassination docs has enough weasel words that I’m not confident the files will all be released. Wait and see before you start celebrating. I’ll bet they use up the entire three months and we hear no more about it. Or, at best, they release a couple more redacted files. Take a lesson from the Chinese — human life is short, history is long. Right now we are in a world where a large part of what the MSM tells us is lies. Cops lie. Politicians lie. Teachers lie. CEOs lie. Celebrities lie. All those people we used to rely on for the truth now lie. Try to read between the lines.

  24. juno mas

    RE: Aircraft carriers

    Well, then, why did the USS Enterprise move out of range of the Houti’s (Yemen)? Why did the bombers sent to ‘punish’ the Houti’s take off from North America (and not the Enterprise)? The Chinese develop aircraft carriers because they need to control sea lanes (Panama Canal?). Russia doesn’t focus on aircraft carriers because it recognizes that it is boots/equipment on the ground that controls territory (land). Land is where those carriers eventually return to—unless they are made into fish reefs at the bottom of the sea by hyper-sonic missiles. (Plus they are costly to build/maintain/replace.)

    The future of naval warfare is the submarine with hyper-sonic missiles.

    1. Michaelmas

      In fact, these debates have been going on a long time.

      During WWII, for instance, every new U-boat captain would have to visit Admiral Dönitz, where he’d say to them: ‘Do you want me to show you the future of naval warfare?’ Then he’d point to a picture on his wall that showed the open sea.

      Likewise, regarding carriers, the Falklands war forty-three years ago has long been considered a turning point by naval strategists and historians, because the British had to stand their carrier and other capitol ships off beyond range of the Argentine planes, which were armed French Exocet missiles till Thatcher blackmailed the codes for those missiles out of France’s then-President Mitterand.

      (Legend claims Thatcher pointed out that the UK had a Polaris nuclear submarine in the region and claimed she was prepared to order it to nuke Buenos Aires unless Mitterand gave up those Exocet codes. Who knows?)

      As you say, it’s maritime powers like the UK and US that need to project power long-distance over seas, and the future of naval warfare is submarines with hypersonic missiles.

      But, additionally, submarine carriers that surface to release drone swarms.

      1. Jason Boxman

        Ha. But. Reminds me of the scene in the terrible Terminator one, before the latest one, that came after T3. Skynet tricks the resistance to give away it’s submarine position, and it’s nuked by energy weapon from the air. I always remember it from satellite which would be a mean feat.

  25. Bsn

    Regarding “We are all Big Brother Now”. I’m not sure what the intent of the author is but the last paragraph with a few ways to “solve out own problem”. This approach is so, so weak. It’s as simpleton as saying “reduce your carbon footprint”. Author suggests modelling good tech behavior with your children and teaching them to control their online behavior. I’m at the point where few people are confused about how I deal with surveillance. I’m almost at the point where I will (ask first then) tell friends who come to our house to leave their phone in the car. Boy howdy do people get upset when you bring up phone surveillance. Hair stands up, voices are raised, virtue signalling is accused. But hey, I don’t want thousands of people listening in on conversations I have, so, sorry to be so Ol’ School. Tech has really become a negative much more so than a positive.
    It is escapable.

    1. Michaelmas

      Bsn: I’m almost at the point where I will (ask first then) tell friends who come to our house to leave their phone in the car.

      I’m sorry, you are old school. AI massively automates surveillance and spying in ways that need some thinking through. This Bruce Schnier essay lists some of the possibilities —

      The Internet Enabled Mass Surveillance. AI Will Enable Mass Spying.
      Spying has always been limited by the need for human labor. AI is going to change that.
      https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2023/12/the-internet-enabled-mass-surveillance-ai-will-enable-mass-spying.html

      Note this passage: –

      ‘Mass surveillance fundamentally changed the nature of surveillance. Because all the data is saved, mass surveillance allows people to conduct surveillance backward in time, and without even knowing whom specifically you want to target. Tell me where this person was last year. List all the red sedans that drove down this road in the past month. List all of the people who purchased all the ingredients for a pressure cooker bomb in the past year. Find me all the pairs of phones that were moving toward each other, turned themselves off, then turned themselves on again an hour later while moving away from each other (a sign of a secret meeting).

      Italics mine. In other words, visitors to your house leaving their phones in their cars becomes just another piece of locational data for the system to register and focus on. And —

      ‘All the data will be saved. It will all be searchable, and understandable, in bulk. Tell me who has talked about a particular topic in the past month, and how discussions about that topic have evolved. Person A did something; check if someone told them to do it. Find everyone who is plotting a crime, or spreading a rumor, or planning to attend a political protest.’

      And so on.

  26. herman_sampson

    In the Latin Times (by way of trust age.io), they report on one of Trump’s EO’s:
    “Embryologists and geneticists have long observed that for the first several weeks after conception, all human embryos follow a “female” developmental blueprint until the activation of the SRY gene initiates sexual differentiation. Embryos with an XY genotype will begin developing male traits linked to the Y chromosome at roughly six weeks, but until then, human embryos have only developed female traits associated with the X chromosome.”
    Meaning Trump’s EO on trans status makes everyone female and Trump is the first female president.
    Similar to one of Indiana’s legislators wants to put a copy of the “Ten Commandments” in schools: besides church/state issues, does not specify which set (there are three sets in the OT), which version (KJV. RSV, Septuagint, English. Greek. Aramaic, maybe even from another religion’s texts; does not quote the text in the bill.
    What mental and legal midgets we have.

  27. TomDority

    Trump’s birthright order and what you need to know.
    Try reading that little short document called the Constitution of the United States get your answers there ….really
    It’s pretty clear about what it says. Translated into the modern vernacular….. President Trump take that birthright order and squeeze it in alongside all those other minions occupying your hotel derriere.

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