Tech stocks fall sharply as China’s DeepSeek sows doubts about AI spending FT
Here’s what the sellside is saying about DeepSeek FT AlphaVille
Calfornia Burning
Firefighters from around the US support Southern California Wildfire Today
Southern California rains arrive, heightening mudslide concerns in scorched areas USA Today
Los Angeles wildfires raise concerns about the toxic pollutants they could be unleashing The Hill
Central Valley farmworkers scared to show up to work over deportation fear NBC Los Angeles
Climate
Climate Change Could Cut the Economy in Half. We’re Not Ready for It. The New Republic
Ecological Myth-Busting Racing to Extinction
Syndemics
‘Grossly irresponsible’: health experts urge US to control bird flu FT
PAHO: Epidemiological Update Avian Influenza A(H5N1) in the Americas Region (Jan 25th) Avian Flu Diary
* * * Tissue-resident memory CD8 T cell diversity is spatiotemporally imprinted Nature. Commentary:
The MILLION-DOLLAR QUESTION : Can T cells recognize SARS-COV-2-variants-infected cells and help clear the infection?
This study, which has unfortunately gone unnoticed, provides clues to answer. We have therefore decided to revisit it.https://t.co/E5vDrQqFE6
— Emmanuel (@ejustin46) January 27, 2025
China?
Millions in China head home for Lunar New Year in ‘record high’ migration Al Jazeera
China’s factory activity contracts in January, ending 3-month expansion streak South China Morning Post
Chinese robot maker UBTech eyes mass production of industrial humanoids by year end South China Morning Post
The Koreas
Yoon becomes South Korea’s first sitting president to be indicted Axios
Syraqistan
Trump’s Palestinian refugee idea falls flat with Arab allies and confounds a Republican senator AP
Prof. John Mearsheimer: Trump Does NOT Want War with Iran (video) ScheerPost
* * * ‘I’d crawl if I have to’: Palestinians eager to return to northern Gaza Al Jazeera. CommentaryL
People are past the barriers. I can't believe what I am seeing at all. pic.twitter.com/p2AhXfAzFa
— Abubaker Abed (@AbubakerAbedW) January 27, 2025
Hamas Making Efforts to Show It Controls Gaza. For Now, Israel Is Choosing Not to Intervene Haaretz
Qatar mediates agreement between Hamas, Israel for return of displaced Gazan residents beginning Monday Anadolu Agency
* * * Israeli forces kill 22 people in south Lebanon as residents try to return Straits Times. Commentary:
Industrial scale looting by the IDF. Televisions, satellite receivers, sound systems, gen set all gone here. Same true in thousands of demolished homes in Khiam.
Met neighbours same plus all their antique carpet collection gone.
Vast scale must involve miltary transport.
Much… https://t.co/ewuv91Ii46— Craig Murray (@CraigMurrayOrg) January 27, 2025
* * * Israel’s justice minister refuses to recognize new Supreme Court president, triggering constitutional crisis: Media Anadolu Agency
European Disunion
Germany’s Economic Model Is Broken, and No One Has a Plan B WSJ
Belarus‘s Lukashenko wins election slammed by EU as ‘sham’ France24
New Not-So-Cold War
Velyka Novosilka Falls Without Fight, as ‘100 Day Peace Plan’ Reportedly “Leaked” Simplicius the Thinker. Commentary:
🇺🇦🤝🇷🇺 The Ukrainian website Strana, which is under sanctions by Zelensky's National Security and Defense Council for alleged pro-Russian tendencies, has published what it claims is a "100-day peace plan" proposed by the Trump administration. According to the outlet, the plan is…
— Davide Maria De Luca (@DM_Deluca) January 27, 2025
A counterplan:
A more realistic peace plan, taking into account the minimum acceptable Russian position (as otherwise the war will simply continue), in Fourteen Points:⬇️
1. Ukraine will never join NATO or the EU, and will conduct no direct or indirect military cooperation with any member of… https://t.co/nUAtMg1KIo pic.twitter.com/nXTxl0Tu7c
— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) January 27, 2025
Ahead of the expected Trump-Putin call, each side stakes out its position WaPo
* * * Zelenskiy again replaces commander of Ukraine’s key eastern front Reuters
* * * USAID ordered to suspend all projects in Ukraine, source within agency says Ukrainska Pravda
Trump Administration
As Hegseth takes charge at the Pentagon, here’s what changes could be in store AP
Gabbard’s path through Intelligence Committee narrows ahead of key hearing The Hill. Commentary:
Brennan is America’s vilest person. No one comes close https://t.co/7XDP1u7Dsu
— Matt Taibbi (@mtaibbi) January 26, 2025
* * * What it would take for America to deport 11mn immigrants FT
Trump pausing Colombia tariffs after migrants deal, White House says Axios
Phew: Trump Announces Immigrants Working Taco Trucks Can Stay Babylon Bee
* * * Trump orders review of Biden admin’s AI work, creation of new AI action plan FedScoop
Democrats en déshabillé
Democrats are splintered on immigration and how to respond to Trump AP
Digital Watch
Bombshell crime scene photos that cast doubt on whether whistleblower committed suicide Daily Mail. Suchir Balaji.
Family, officials urge inquiry into OpenAI whistleblower’s death San Francisco Examiner
* * * AI hallucinations can’t be stopped — but these techniques can limit their damage Nature
What Is China’s DeepSeek and Why Is It Freaking Out the AI World? Bloomberg. Commentary:
Every one in the list of DeepSeek RLLM developers below deserves to share a Nobel Prize for Literature.
I'm now using DeepSeek as quality control on what I draft myself. It's organisation, scope, content quality, and fluency are really impressive. I realised just now why it is… pic.twitter.com/3wBzp2LzPQ
— Kathleen Tyson (@Kathleen_Tyson_) January 26, 2025
Poetry Nook
Close Reading Bad Poetry 3 Quarks Daily
Supply Chain
Class Warfare
Making the Elite: Discrimination at Top Firms (PDF) Soumitra Shukla
Packinghouse ethics – There has always been consolidated power, but not like now NoBull News Service
Antidote du jour (H. Zell):
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.
Working link for “Central Valley farm workers scared to show up to work over deportation fear”:
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/national-international/central-valley-farm-workers-deportation-fear/3615231/
What would happen if local and state law enforcement agencies actively intervened to prevent California Central Valley residents from being randomly terrorized by a rogue Federal agency?
Why should California Central Valley residents expect anything less from the local and state law enforcement agencies that are sworn to protect them?
We would be confronted with the same considerations that sparked the American War Between the States back in 1860. Just as Lincoln did, the American President can call out the Army to “put down rebellion against the duly constituted central authority.”
It would turn into a shooting war.
The question being whether routinely violating the Constitutional rights of California citizens is “duly constituted central authority”. I would strenuously argue that it is not.
Why is it rogue? It is doing what Trump was elected to order it to do.
If people don’t like what I & N is doing, they can elect a different President to give it different orders in 4 years.
Yo, immigrants let’s kick it
ICE, ICE, baby
ICE, ICE, baby
All right stop, collaborate and listen
ICE is back with the brand-new intention
Something, grabs a hold of me tightly
Border flow like a stuck pig daily and nightly
Will it ever stop? Yo, I don’t know
Turn on the infrared lights and I’ll glow
To the extreme I seem to be like a vandal
Trump up on a stage and giving us a bad handle
Watch him go rush to the House Speaker in that big room
I’m killing the electorates’ brain like a poisonous mushroom
Deadly when I play a Norteño melody
Anything less than littering is a felony
Love it or leave, there has to be a better way
You better hit bull’s eye, getting rid of us don’t pay
And if there was a problem, yo, ICE will solve it
Check out the hook while Team Pachyderm resolves it
ICE, ICE, baby
Vanilla ICE, ICE, baby
Vanilla ICE, ICE, baby
Vanilla ICE, ICE, baby
Now that the Republican party is jumping
With their brass kicked in and the oil drills are pumpin’
Quick to the point to the point of taking
I’m cooking your meals like a pound of bacon
Burning toast if you ain’t quick and nimble
I go crazy when I hear immigrants are a crime symbol
Add a President on a high horse with a souped up-tempo
I’m on a roll and it’s time to go Han Solo
Yo, man let’s get out of here
Word to your other campesinos
ICE, ICE, baby too bold
ICE, ICE, baby too bold, too bold
ICE, ICE, baby too bold, too bold
ICE, ICE, baby too bold, too bold
Ice Ice Baby, by Vanilla Ice
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoYfh2UBuDw
Fantastic! :)
‘Jack Poso 🇺🇸
@JackPosobiec
BREAKING: John Brennan demands the Senate not confirm Tulsi Gabbard’
Say, isn’t Brennan one of the people that lost his security clearance through lying about the Hunter Biden laptop thus proving him to be not worthy of trust? Nice to see that MSM is still putting him on TV to hear his words of wisdom.
Why yes, yes he is. Is he afraid of now losing all his highly paid MSM intel consulting jobs at NBCnews and MSNBC ? Sure sounds like it. Sounds like he can’t give up his meddlesome ways / ;)
From Taibbi, short public excerpt:
Ex-CIA Chief John Brennan Should Be Sent to Mars
Nothing is more dangerous than an out-of-work spy.
https://www.racket.news/p/ex-cia-chief-john-brennan-should
From the longer article:
Brennan has long been a powerful behind-the-scenes figure, dating back to the late 2000s and early 2010s, when he was nicknamed “Obama’s Drone Master” and “Deputy President.” He was the leader of an effort to forge a malodorous Intelligence Community Assessment in 2017 claiming Russia was conducting another “influence operation” to “denigrate” Hillary Clinton while showing a “clear preference” for Donald Trump. I worked with Michael Shellenberger and Alex Gutentag at Public last year on a story showing that Brennan suppressed dissent from his own hand-picked analysts to “cook” the intelligence on the way to that conclusion, which really kick-started the Russiagate lunacy.
Thank you Flora!
You’re welcome. (NBCnews and MSNBC wonder why their viewership has tanked, dropped to all-time lows? / ;)
Well he , being Brennan, would be at the very top of a long list of experts or purported to be an expert once upon a long ago time…. it’s not a short list of applicants!
Yesterday we had some insight from raging Cajun himself Jimmy Carville…I would do an update to his phrasing, that we can drag $100,000 speaking fee through the lobbying firms and K Strert to see who turns out to chase it…then put em all into space travel…
Adding a vaunted economist into the mix, we can send Larry Summers on the flight too and we’ll include his convenient reference of a can opener…good luck in space…
Priceless. Thanks for today’s SNORT
Whatever that filthy liar Brennan recommends is most likely the worst thing to do.
Go Tulsi!
https://pivot-to-ai.com/2025/01/26/deepseek-r1-is-wildly-overhyped-but-you-can-try-it-at-home/
I wrote about Deepseek earlier this month.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/evolution-ai-training-efficiency-emerging-trends-oliver-king-smith-7uxcc/?trackingId=53YXWcBOLaryaz%2F9BXkJPg%3D%3D
One of the most remarkable aspects of this approach is that it uses only 8-bit weights during training. Previously, I had recommended using at least 16-bit or 32-bit weights, as I believed that anything less would hinder the gradient descent process. However, these results suggest that I may have been mistaken. The researchers themselves were surprised by the stability of the training process, which is often a challenge with large models that require reverting to saved checkpoints. This has led me to wonder if it’s possible to train with even smaller weights.
In summary, the Deepseek approach appears to be effective, and if its results can be replicated, it could be a game-changer.
So I can d/l Deepseek R1 and “try it at home” if I use the dumbed-down model and get a $2k RTX 5090 gpu to run it on. A more realistic RTX 5070 only has half (12gb) the recommended VRAM. Maybe a 5070 Ti out next month can boost that.
I got a 4070 Ti with 16GB; not sure what the price is today, but it works well enough for doing AI in the home.
Going to be interesting to see how the DeepSeek image processing work!
Gooooooood Mooooooorning Fiatnam!
The platoons’ presence had been requested in Pacific Palisades in order to stop looters from rifling through ash in search of pollutants and/or a little brass from a melted down Oscar perhaps, in toxic tony town~
Who doesn’t love a yard sale and the possibilities therein, and it wasn’t uncommon to see freshly planted signs among the uninsured and overextended stating something along the lines of…
‘2,645 sq foot lot, $1.8 million’
That needed a coffee warning. 2,645 sq feet…. coming soon, Fawlty Towers
Hee. Memories of Sidney Greenstreet scraping away at the Maltese Falcon come to mind. Some movie stars have claimed they use them for doorstops. In Cronenberg’s Maps of the Stars the personal assistant uses one to brain her employer. No respect for the fake gold statue.
Decades ago I was hanging out behind the counter @ Superior Coin & Stamp Gallery in Beverly Hills, and they did auctions of coins, stamps, space memorabilia and Hollywoodania et al, and they had received an Oscar from How Green Was My Valley from 1941 to be auctioned, and I asked if I could hold it, and my gawd how hefty, and of course I had to Sally Field it up…
‘You like me-you really like me!’
Maybe, like the Maltese Falcon, they are really filled with lead. Over to you search ai
https://blog.providentmetals.com/how-oscar-statue-is-made.htm
“weighing in at 8.5 lbs., the interior of the golden award is actually composed of a metal alloy called Britannium (93 percent tin, 5 percent antimony, and 2 percent copper) and plated with 24-karat gold.”
I was reliably informed that a best adapted screenplay Oscar was part of the recipient’s children’s toys and could be regularly found hanging out with dust bunnies an under the youngest’s bed. (I worked with one of the kids.)
>Family, officials urge inquiry into OpenAI whistleblower’s death San Francisco Examiner
This has the potential of bringing down not only local medical examiner, but local police, state and even federal officials. After the two Boeing whistleblower’s questionable suicide, and Biden’s “future” potential revelations of wrong doing, this will determine whether government by rule of law is a guiding principle or a joke. If the later, then this gov’t has no legitimacy…we’ll see how far up this goes.
Kim Iverson, following Tucker Carlson, recently interviewed Suchir Balaji.
https://rumble.com/v6cblh4-billion-dollar-motive-was-the-openai-whistleblower-killed.html.
People do commit suicide in the most improbable ways at the most convenient times. Tis a puzzlement.
Rule of Law? Perhaps for the “little people”, wasn’t that Leona Helmsley’s construction. Keep in mind that us deplorables are among those who suffer what they must while “our betters” take what they will.
California has always had some corruption in its legal system, but this apparent coverup of murder surprises me as San Francisco doesn’t seem to have the same kinds of it as say Los Angeles or Vallejo. Protecting abusive policing is SOP, but murder especially when not done by the police, not so much. But I guess billions of dollars would create more incentive for corruption.
Billions of dollars could hire expert assassinologists who are much better at untraceable violence than the police are. ” Billions of dollars” might well have quietly told police leadership that if they investigated too closely, they or their familiies might be . . . umm . . . . not-in-so-many-words . . . assassinated.
>>>they or their familiies might be . . . umm . . . . not-in-so-many-words . . . assassinated.
No murder needed as they can destroy lives in many creative ways. Planting kiddie pictures on the pc or drugs in the car or house have been done in the past.
I see that the Times of India has been tracking this murder/sucide (last post I think was 1/18).
This has the potential of soon escalating into an international issue. I wonder if Usha Chilukuri Vance, whose family is from India, if I’m not mistaken, would take an interest. Vivek Ramaswamy is suspect so I doubt he’ll take up the cause of seeking justice. I think this will play into how India feels it is being treated, the article title pretty much tells you that there is much in the way of this murder disrupting American/Indian relations.
‘We are treated like boat people’: Indian techies alarmed by Trump’s bros’
https://www.rt.com/india/611509-indians-us-h1b-uncertainty-trump/
Now that there is DeepSeek, maybe there is hope. Could AI be used to wrest a peace out of the warmongers? As there are folks whose mouth waters at using AI to military advantage, an open source AI definitely levels the playing field for all. Including the enemy, whoever that may be for you.
I loved Deepseek when I first tried it as it knew who I was! It gives detailed and wonderfully insightful answers to complex queries. I raved to multiple parties including the NC tip hotline.
Then I tried running friends through Deepseek and it didn’t do as well. Mostly it didn’t know who they were but then it told me someone was dead. Not just dead but entire work history a jumbled mess with wrong (but similar) employers. It also said this very cranky guy was “beloved.”
I tried Deepseeking myself again and got crickets. Surprised I asked Deepseek wtf? and it replied that each session was unique, no records of previous searches kept and then I realized that my first query was after giving Deepseek my Google access permission! They scraped that acct in less than a second and gave me back some solid information about myself. Good reply other than totally making up my work as a playwright?!
I don’t trust Deepseek, but — like Wikipedia — it seems to be very useful in most regards. Deepseek’s command of English, btw, is excellent and the cited Tweet explains that very well. The bullet points are exceptionally well done and in back and forth response, Deepseek is nimble and adept at ‘weaving’ your query information into their instant reply. It’s not like talking to a human as it’s way faster and more on topic and too perfect. Which is just as a computer should sound.
Trump is throwing away a lot of money. I think all he’ll prove is that American IT leadership will never let the smart people working for them do AI right.
Using LLMs for search in general is not a great use case. There’s are some services like perplexity and a few open source alternatives that let them connect to the internet for search but the chances of it making stuff up are still a concern.
They’re good for programming and other tasks where the response can be quickly verified in my experience.
If it writes me some code I can compile and run it to check if it works.
If it writes me something about ancient Egyptian history I have no way of knowing if it’s true without doing the research myself which defeats the whole purpose.
Generative AI is best used for supporting human work: breaking through writers block (sometimes by making up a story/continuation that’s so bad the Dark Side helps you, it feels like), rewriting a paragraph that feels off, getting a quick code snippet for a particular job where correctness is easily verified.
Summarising things seems like it does OK at, but never trust the output uncritically. Remember, current day AI doesn’t “know” anything, it just has been taught X following Y being more likely than other alternatives (very very abbreviated).
I’ve been very dismissive of AI based on my experience with past AI assistance from Westlaw and Lexis, which was beyond worthless, and seeing AI crap that others have filed in court. The tweet gave a use case that made me think. Editorial suggestions would be very useful to a solo lawyer like myself. Smart lady.
Military AI tend to work with visual patterns (killer drone guidance, satellite image object recognition, etc). You don’t need LLMs for a kamikaze drone swarm.
‘Davide Maria De Luca
@DM_Deluca
🇺🇦🤝🇷🇺 The Ukrainian website Strana, which is under sanctions by Zelensky’s National Security and Defense Council for alleged pro-Russian tendencies, has published what it claims is a “100-day peace plan” proposed by the Trump administration. According to the outlet, the plan is circulating among Ukrainian MPs.’
Simplicius the Thinker does a good job demolishing Trump’s plan in today’s linked article “Velyka Novosilka Falls Without Fight, as ‘100 Day Peace Plan’ Reportedly “Leaked” but there is more. He calls this essentially a rehash of the “Istanbul 2” framework but I think that he is wrong here. After reading the points of this plan it is nothing less than a Minsk 3 agreement that would guarantee a further outbreak of war in just a coupla years time when the Ukraine has had a chance once more to rebuild its military. And should it be pointed out that in a few more months not only will Kursk be cleared out – eliminating one proviso of that plan – but that the Russians may be sitting on the Dnieper river. This all sounds like something that Kellog put together which is why is all sounds a bit flaky.
The problem with Trump is that he still listens to the CIA types. Of course he has to because they always have the whip hand in politics in the USA. If the US had a record of honest and honorable dealings then the Istanbul II plan would be a starting off position. Because the USA and its minions are fundamentally and systemically dishonest and corrupt it’s hard to see how the Russians can take anything seriously. The US has created a rules-based-order where the only “order” is the use of overt and (for the US) mainly covert military force with a leavening of bribes. Such a world is impossible. Russia has to be very careful now. In ancient times hostages were taken to guarantee honoring agreements. I suggest some Senators who could vote remotely from Moscow.
Senator hostages is an interesting idea, but since nobody actually likes American Senators you’d have to go a little further. Maybe require the Senators to be from the majority party, and enough of them to comfortably flip the majority if they were incapacitated. Swap Senators after each election.
Senators are useless as hostages, because they are expendable.
Require the underage sons and daughters of oligarchs to be sent as hostages — that should keep the government of the USA in check. Besides, being minors, they can be schooled and inculcated a different worldview before they are returned to their families.
All humans are dishonest and corrupt, and those who deny it are lying.
That sounds like something that dishonest and corrupt individual would copy-paste repeatedly.
One thing about Trump’s 100 day plan is shooking to me in a good way – it shows Team Trump actually took some effort to pay attention to Russian demands, like protections of Russians, their language, etc. Likely will never be enforced, but that the neo-cons in Trumps Admin took time to bone up on it is a revolutionary improvement in US diplomacy vs the across the board incompetentnce and arrogance of Team Biden
A focus on cultural issues, much like most of the Executive Orders, shouldn’t be that shocking.
But its not just cultural. No NATO is also offered by Trump proposal. So listening is clearly indicated by TT.
What is TT?
Motorcycle races on the Isle of Man.
Pistol shown in Russian reply to offer.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:USSROfficerTT33.JPG
Oh, come on. Russia knows this part is a joke:
We have said repeatedly that Trump cannot deliver NATO. NATO is a consensus driven organization. This is why, for instance, each and every NATO member had to approve Sweden and Finland joining, which in some countries took the approval of their legislature.
The UK, Baltic States, and Poland will never agree.
OK. But I still say, it shows TT (team trump) actually listened and responded to Russian concerns unlike Biden. And that’s huge.
When Nixon agreed to discussions with n Vietnam they thought time was on their side. Negotiations took a long time to get started, as I recall months to agree on the shape of the table. By the time they began the us was desperate to get out, our young people voting with their feet and marching to Canada to avoid the draft, massive demos, etc.
Russia will want to show row their willingness to negotiate, so imo they will, but my guess they’ll drag their feet. Meanwhile trump has a lot of distractions on his plate, immigrants, ME, tariffs, China, chips, ai, etc etc, while Russia is focused on Ukraine. If it takes another year to get Ukraine to surrender, negotiations might take a year… and might never involve the west because nobody in the west will accept surrender/new Russia-leaning Ukrainian leader and/or Ukrainian mil purging Nazis. Or maybe another 4 oblasts joining Russia following plebiscites.
The Russians are not foot dragging, which = reluctantly participating in negotiations and/or negotiating in a way that runs out the clock. It is the Trump side that has yet to call Putin to get any balls rolling. But that’s ducky with Russia, since it’s clear actual negotiations will not happen. At best, there may be a few sessions of Big Dogs talking past each other.
The US and EU have unrealistic positions. And they are fundamentally untrustworthy, as they have repeatedly shown. So Russia has no reason to negotiate with them at all save appearances vis a vis economic allies like China and India. They need to look reasonable and let the US and EU look like the bad guys….and the latter are being remarkably obliging.
The fact that the US and NATO have still not accepted that Russia is winning handily and have not adjusted their positions means it makes no sense for the Russians to indulge their view as being legitimate or worth entertaining. That is not “foot dragging”. That is sobriety v. delusion.
How will UKR rebuild its military? With robots? It looks to me that people are voting with their feet and the idea that they will be forever marked as cannon fodder by the west and by their “betters” since conception will put a big damper on things in Ukriane.
@CraigMurrayOrg
Amidst the devastation of thousands of destroyed homes in Khiam, Lebanon, we tracked down Dr. Julia’s piano.
The impunity with which Israel continues to murder, destroy, and pillage the region is mind numbing and soul wrenching. It will forever stain that country’s future, as well as that of the U.S and other enablers/inert witnesses.
A pox on Congress and the President.
The pillaging is nothing new as we have seen them do the same in Gaza, sometimes taking jewelry right off the bodies. It’s a long standing practice of the IDF and when they were forced out of Lebanon back in 2008, they had bulldozers come in and scrape up the top-soil from Lebanese farmlands to dump into waiting trucks to take back to Israel. It was seeing that which really made me aware that Israel was not a normal country.
Didn’t Nazis take chernozem from Soviet Union back to Germany, back in the day?
Didn’t the US end up taking a whole load of V-2 rockets back to White Sands Missile Range along with the scientists that built them for testing. At the end of the war all the Allies were looting Germany for everything that they could use, especially technology. I think that the British took back German tank engines to help with future locomotive design too-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFW7XTNkR-Y (16 secs)
As for the Russians, as the Wehrmacht had killed 27 million people and destroyed most structures in a huge swath between Moscow and Berlin, I think that they were up for some compensation.
Rockets and tanks are regular spoils of war, but loading fertile ground on trucks is not a thing one sees evey day(/war).
P.S. German tank engines ran on petrol, which locomotive tend not to (though Porsche petrol-electric might have been useful because of the electric part).
Actually that trend was started in WWI, with German occupying forces in Southern Romania taking trainloads of cernoziom as war trophe. And blankets, and livestock, and whatever they could from a mostly rural population…
I think the whole point of Israelis looting, raping, killing is that they want to utterly destroy the post-WWII world-order where human rights had some value. Washington is fine with it (as are their fiefs in Europe) because they aggressively want to undermine Western Civilization and any part of the morality that emerged out of Christianity and the Western humanist tradition. In a way, Israel is an anti-Western project at heart mainly unconsciously along with their US enablers particularly the false Christians (who only recognize the Old Testament who embrace Zionism hoping Jesus will return and F up all those humanists and real New Testament Christians.
Israel lives by the sword. That does have consequences or so tis said. Acting with impunity encourages others to do likewise.
c: I think the whole point of Israelis looting, raping, killing is that they want to utterly destroy the post-WWII world-order where human rights had some value.
You’re overthinking it.
Instead:-
[1.] They’re God’s Chosen People;
[2.] ‘Never again’ means never again to them; never again by them is fine because [1.]
What the Israelis are doing (razing dwellings, starving populations, killing animals, destroying plantings, slaughtering civilians, executing prisoners, looting) is actually quite typical of what every colonial power perpetrated upon a native population during “punitive expeditions”.
While the operation in Gaza (together with South Lebanon and the West Bank) both because of its scale and because it targeted an urban population might seem to be unprecedented, it is comparable to what the Japanese did against the Chinese in Nanjing at the time when Japan wanted to incorporate China in its colonial empire.
A 75-year long ‘punitive expedition’? What’s wrong with ethnic cleansing and genocide?
They have always done the unthinkable, but there was no global public: TikTok, Twitter, and mass ownership of cell phones in the Global South. This is when the neocolonial West lost control of the narrative.
They have not been sending entire divisions fighting the Palestinians uninterruptedly for 75 years.
The situation has been constant harassment (by settlers, the police, the army, the judiciary) and exploitation, repeated incursions and small attacks, punctuated by eruptions of unbriddled violence with large-scale deployment of the armed forces — precisely those punitive expeditions: Cast Lead in 2008, Pillar of Defense in 2012, Protective Edge in 2014, the war of annihilation since 2023, and all other such interventions that occurred before those events since 1948, including, against Lebanon, Northern Shield in 2018, the 2006 war, Peace in Galilee in 1982, Operation Litani in 1978.
As for genocide and ethnic cleansing: most colonial endeavours resorted to them, with all forms of settler colonialism relying upon them. Israel is the last attempt to establish a settler colonial state, ergo…
You state that genocide and ethnic cleansing are the predictable consequence of settler colonialism…
So what’s more probable: that this is simply a punitive expedition and a form of collective punishment, as the most courageous say in the mainstream media, which is quite a whitewashing of this whole criminal enterprise, if you ask me, or the last stage of a 75-year long genocidal project of dispossessing the natives of their land, a project overseen and made possible by two successive hegemonic empires?
It really is not the same thing.
You misunderstand me.
If that was not clear, let me stress that “punitive expedition” was the official colonial euphemism for what is actually an operation of extermination. In fact, the German general in charge of Namibia during the early 1900s launched his pacification operation with an “order of annihilation” (Vernichtungsbefehl). This resulted in the double genocide of the rebellious Namas and Hereros. It also appalled the German government, which thought that such a barefaced stipulation was definitely way too much on the nose. The Japanese policy in China was “kill all, burn all, loot all”; same idea, and same intent as the Israelis.
The colonial “punitive expedition” is a tactic within the whole project to dispossess native populations and establish a settler state, along with other typical colonial tactics, including.
1) A police state imposing identification and control obligations on the natives (think “Indian pass”, “kipande”, “native’s booklet”), and arbitrary movement constraints.
2) Dispossession (typically of land, water, and the possibility to practice specific activities) via a variety of legal recourses, including retroactive legalization of illegal spoliation by settlers.
3) Political disenfranchisement, where natives are subject to different laws than settlers — that are usually more stringent and grant them less rights — and are denied citizenship, with their political personnel being designated by the colonial state and accountable to it, not the native populations.
4) Destruction of the native culture — either legally (e.g. prohibition of customs, think about the prohibition of the potlatch in North America), physically (destruction of cultural artifacts), educationally (forced conversions, specific schooling, and clothing).
5) Eugenism to reduce the native population — taking children away, sterilizing the population.
6) Utter neglect of the native populations as regards health or living conditions.
7) Economic bondage — obligation to cultivate specific crops, obligation to sell produce to settlers at administered prices, non-negotiable conditions when working for settlers, up to free labour (corvée).
8) Racial segregation — separate neighbourhoods, separate roads, separate shops, hospitals, schools, churches, reserved areas in cinemas and public transport, and even separate jails or custody areas.
You will easily recognize that Israel applies all of these practices.
Of course, natives do not like such a regime and revolt. That gives the opportunity to proceed with “punitive expeditions” to “pacify” them — raze their dwellings, exterminate them, steal their land, and expell the few survivors. The ultimate medium to long-term objective being to get rid of all natives (as in Cuba and Tasmania), or to reduce them to a negligible mass in reservations (as in North America and Australia).
So yes, it is a stage in a long colonial project which is by essence, not incidentally, genocidal, but I disagree that this is the last stage.
This from 10 years ago “Operation Protective Edge”:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/soldiers-indicted-for-looting-during-gaza-war/
– with comments
>Packinghouse ethics – There has always been consolidated power, but not like now NoBull News Service
The system should be broken up for the sake of public safety.
[Slight modification]
If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.
If turnips were watches, I’d wear one by my side.
If “ifs” and “ands” were pots and pans,
There’d be no work for the writer’s pen.
>Democrats are splintered on immigration and how to respond to Trump AP
On Capitol Hill, a crucial faction of Democrats are looking for places of agreement with Trump.
They don’t have to look far, they only have agree on what Ray McGovern calls the MICIMATT (The Military-Industrial-Congressional-Intelligence- Media-Academia-Think-Tank) to find accord.
RE: Deepseek
I have tried using Deepseek in multiple ways. In terms of the research (likely based on what information it uses) the results are very disappointing. I found it makes up references and when citing to references that the proposition for which the article is cited is often wrong. Not sure if it will change with better information sources, but that is my experience experimenting with this AI.
I would be interested in other experiences others have had.
AIs are tricksters. They can be startlingly clever, but you’d better keep an eye on them, because they make things up.
It’s as if it turns on its head a famous line from Goethe’s “Faust,” spoken by Mephistopheles and quoted by Bulgakov: “I am a part of that power which eternally wills good and eternally works evil.”
Incidentally, I asked DeepSeek, mischievously, if it knew the translation and its source. It pegged it as Walter Kaufmann’s, which, from a look at the edition it referred to, was incorrect, and it placed it in the wrong scene in the original. That notwithstanding, it gave me three additional translations from other editions (note to self: check them), and it whipped up a number of plausible readings of the line’s import and its place in a number of literary traditions. Perhaps I’m easily impressed, but, caveat given, I found that impressive.
“The Master and Margarita.” My favorite book. B’s description of the writers’ union dining room is a keeper. “In short, Hell.”
The original source is not too shabby, either.
“Herauf herab und quer und krum/meine Schuler auf der Nase herum.”
Or
“Verweile doch/du bist so schon.”
I wish Randy Newman would stage his Faust. It is breathtaking.
On my first trip to Moscow, I went straight to Patriarch’s Ponds. On my first trip to Kiev, I visited Bulgakov’s house, that featured in his novel White Guard, that is now a museum centred on his life and works. In today’s extremely russian language phobic Kiev, I have to wonder how long the museum can avoid becoming yet another victim of the Ukrainian derussification campaign. Sad, sad, sad.
I had to laugh when reading the article from Nature as I had an experience with some AI play testing where it gave me back a response that seemed unexpectedly accurate, but when I asked it for source info it gladly gave me a link to an article at Nature. That link actually returned a 404 error (page doesn’t exists) when clicked on. The authors it gave me did work in the field, but the best I could tell none of them had written any work together anywhere in the time period of the supposed articles publication date.
In my opinion a key problem with AI is that its name is a lie. It is not intelligent in the way most lay people would define intelligence and I’m specifically referring to the “AI” components relying on large language models (LLMs). As the article notes, they are just giant statistical black boxes that are basically finishing your sentences based upon a statistical probability of the next word/sentence. They are not reaching into the recesses of their memory and then providing you the data you wanted or asked for. The output in many cases may be accurate and correct, but the “AI” does not know why it is correct beyond that it gave you the best probable combinations of words to give you a result. Hence it is so bad at referencing where it got its answer(s) from. Supposedly many AI developers are working on building AI with constraints to narrow its results to outputs that it can more correctly reference when asked. That said, in my opinion it’s still not intelligent, it’ll just be better at faking what many people think are intellectual responses.
So it’s really FIUYMII? As in Fake It Until You Make It Intelligence?
Just like us. Just like us, man.
Menschliches, allzumenschliches.
Self-Cognition in Large Language Models: An Exploratory Study by Dongping Chen et al. (the DeepSeek guys) might be a fascinating/disturbing read for the Naked Consciousness crew.
Artificial Indoctrination.
I read the main training set for deepseek style was the Chinese university standardized tests and answers. This was from an internet commenter who has posted great stuff in the past but for all I know that information came from an LLM source and could be a hallucination.
If that is the case at least the input data was human trained humans. When the input data becomes LLM’s with LLM training data for input that is when things are likely to get very weird very fast.
But yes. The answer to your question is yes. It is Fake It Until You Make It. The training data is Scott Alexander and Sam Bankman Fried and Elizabeth Holmes and Sam Altman student essay test answers.
According to one clever internet person.
LOL!!! That made my day!
I agree that’s some ones plan financially, but I’d suspect most bubbles are built on the same hubris. The question is do they make it or does it go pop before then? From the comments here I’m thinking while Deepseek is likely no better it might be the needle most other fakers wished would go away.
I think I was using Deepseek differently. I trust it to gather information and synthesize it but the info I want is about people and organizations and events. I’m not asking science questions or questions to which answers are not known.
It’s flawed but nowhere near as flawed as the other AI I’ve tried. The test for me is to ask AI about things I know a lot about. When it comes back with four dense paragraphs about a relatively obscure Belarus ’80s style no.wave band, obviously pulls info from multiple sources and gets everything right, I have to tip my hat.
Never trust, always verify. For my search purposes Deepseek is a helper. Like working with an autistic research librarian: excellent in most regards but I wouldn’t ask Deepseek or the librarian for tips on how to conduct a romance or buy cannabis in a state that hasn’t legalized. Deepseek is a tool that can be used.
I view those newfangled AI tools as an intricate form of Maximum Likelihood Estimator (without the confidence intervals).
Their output will be accurate if all accumulated data they trained on consistently establishes a single possible answer to a query.
“Who won the battle at Cannae?” — Hannibal won, nobody argues otherwise.
“What disease causes symptoms X, Y, Z and W?” — amongst all diseases with those symptoms, the one that occurs or is diagnosed most frequently will be returned.
“Give me some references to study about the applications of Minkovski geometry on finance derivative securities” — no problem, just concoct the most plausible title for such a semantic slurry, with plausible authors (who from their publications are known to apply advanced mathematical techniques to finance), selecting an appropriate journal where such topics are discussed, a suitable year, and invent a number/volume for the journal. The result does not exist — it is just the maximum likelihood estimator of such a reference.
Same for people programming with AI, and seeing it concoct library calls that are plausible (because similar libraries exist in many programming languages), or lawyers using AI to seek for information, and having it return references and citations of inexistent cases, but that look very plausible.
Frankly, using AI for search appears to me to be equivalent to using the output of a regression equation to inquire about, say, the rate of inflation; it may give the exact value, but most of the time it will be the computed MLE from the existing data — a figure that is very plausible, but does not actually correspond to reality.
They are glorified stochastic optimization methods on steroids.
The novelty in deepseek isn’t that their models are better, they are on par with existing ones, with all the bads like hallucinations. Rather the innovation is that they built the model faster, on order of magnitude cheaper HW and probably the worst thing, they released it as open source, so anyone can run it and improve it.
Which is why western tech stocks are tanking right now, because there is no way openai can earn hundreds of billions for shareholders in such competition.
I think LLMs mislabeled ‘AI’ are superb technology at doing one thing; causing mass hysterics. Deepseek’s training and hardware costs have not been disclosed. So no one really knows if it’s ‘cheaper’ to make. Llama is open source, and has been around for a long time, and is among the top tier models. And Deepseek’s R1 struggles with the same fundamentals all LLM’s do. So the only explanation of the hype is AI induces psychosis among Homo sapiens .
They actually disclosed the numbers: $5.5M for training. Of course you can claim they are lying, and some western tech bros allege just that, but judging by the markets there is shortage of people willing to bet on that.
NN Cassandra: Which is why western tech stocks are tanking right now, because there is no way openai can earn hundreds of billions for shareholders in such competition.
[1] It’s 2025 and we’re living in what was once the future when the No. 1 lead story in the world’s MSM is how a globally networked AI model from China is forcing a massive stock selloff across the world by undercutting US models.
[2] It’s very likely the equity trading tech team behind DeepSeek (High-Flyer) put on some shorts before they released their app and associated data last week. (I’m being Captain Obvious here, because they’d be stupid not to and they’re not stupid.)
So for them right now this is a virtuous circle. That’d be one big reason for making DeepSeek open source so everyone can verify they’ve done what they’ve claimed.
Re the AP–sounds like Egypt and Jordan are none too enthused about operation Ethnic Cleansing Don as a sequel to Genocide Joe. And that dissenting Republican senator is, amazingly, our Lindsey.
Meanwhile Korybko says everything is jake and Trump just needs to strongarm the above dissenters and MBS may even take in a few Gazans under his benevolent reign as window dressing.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/trumps-gaza-proposal-takes-a-page
Larry Johnson thinks Trump is being played again by the CIA just as he was the first time. Plus, while MSNBC may not be the best news source Fox isn’t either. Danger ahead?
The guys at The Duran say that Trump watches the main stream media all the time and if this is true, would explain the delusional beliefs that he has. He really needs to talk to someone like Chas W. Freeman to know what is really going on.
Thought about this with the Golden Age nonsense. The day after the election, FOX News in the US started in on new golden age and warmed-over morning in America stuff. Was Trump publicly talking like that back then?
How Trump failed to make America great again on round 1 doesn’t figure into it.
He does usually seem up on certain FOX shows.
Well the new SecDefence is Pete Hegseth, a Fox News host and I seem to recall that there are one or two others from Fox that have joined his team. Hey, change that. I just checked and found this-
‘So far, he has selected at least 19 former Fox News hosts, journalists and commentators for senior positions in his second White House term. Of those, seven were working for Fox at the time Trump announced them.’
https://www.npr.org/2025/01/20/nx-s1-5268791/fox-news-trump-inauguration
So Australia has a lot to answer for having unleashed Rupert Murdoch upon the world? ;)
Since I don’t get cable TV here I can’t even watch Fox. But I knew some people of the Republican persuasion and they kept their TV parked on Fox 24/7. Meanwhile my brother does the same with MSNBC. Battling drip feeds of propaganda?
At least Trump isn’t keeping his ill intentions under a bushel as we Southrons say. With Biden it was all sneaking around. And maybe these recent Trump threats are some kind of fourth dimensional chess.
I still don’t understand how he went from a local news publisher to become this titan of modern publishing in the US. Were conditions just right for somebody like him at the time? Did he have help from the establishments here in Oz as well as the UK and the US? Can’t he just go away? Would you believe that this guy had a bust of Lenin in his rooms at Oxford when studying there?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rupert_Murdoch
The Murdoch business model is really quite simple. He backs politicians who help his businesses to grow, undermines any who take him on. Over time, as his businesses grew to dominate the media in particular places the politicians had to become more and more helpful if they wanted his support. It helps that he seems to have no morals or regard for the truth.
Some politician once said ‘you start by thinking you have Rupert working for you, then you realise you are working for him’.
I heard from a source I believe years back, that Murdock wears a black hat. Consciously promoting evil.
Must have been all those nudies on page two (or was it three?).
Reagan cancelled The Fairness Doctrine (broadcasters on public airwaves were supposed to be nonpartisan) which opened the door for Rupe to step in. Although it took another decade for that to happen. Before that our punditocarcy was dominated by High Broderism which said compromise between the two raptor wings worked best.
Of course rightwing complaints about “liberal bias” go back at least to Agnew and Nixon even though their opponents weren’t all that liberal. But the Overton moved away from the era when open racists like Strom Thurmond were common and the media came to love them some Reagan. We have poodles here too….not just overseas.
there were also laws and regulations on foreigners could not completely own media companies, that was wiped away by bill clinton.
I blame it all on the Gallipoli complain by Murdoch the elder…
As Max Blumenthal observed, Trump’s cabinet is staffed from the green room at Fox. Not that that should be a problem. Think of them as presidential apprentices.
A long time ago I knew a reporter who was offered a job as a media spokesperson for a member of Congress. The reporter was very flattered, at least until I explained to them that hiring a local media reporter is a slam dunk for a politician.
This reporter knew all the other reporters and local news outlets. When that politician put out a press release, it would be issued with the former reporter’s name on it.
Trump is buttering up his allies with these hires. If/when they screw up, he gets to fire them and the ally finds themselve “owing” the Donald for the bad hire.
This is fascinating to me. Whoever is really truly running things is no slouch, they’re in full strategic mode and unlike the Democrats, are living in the real world. Pawns are being positioned for sacrifice to create opportunities for the major pieces.
I’m going to have to start eating popcorn again.
Once a pawn a time the king rooked all the bishops horses?
Queen, Bohemian Rhapsody
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJ9rUzIMcZQ
Not the only reporter so tempted and many took the political gigs. What’s telling is that the reporters who left for politics were usually replaced by nonreporters with Communications degrees.
Same time frame as when all my favorite reporters at major outlets got bought out by new owners, encouraged to take early retirement, something that literally made no sense from a business perspective but was remarkably helpful in transitioning us from news we could use to being gaslighted 24/7.
Rev Kev: I just checked and found … he has selected at least 19 former Fox News hosts, journalists and commentators for senior positions in his second White House term
The London Review of Books ran a piece called ‘They Came from Fox News’ a couple of weeks back, when Trump’s ‘team’ were first announced.
If Trump was serious about compromise, he would offer every Palestinian US asylum.
>Millions in China head home for Lunar New Year in ‘record high’ migration Al Jazeera
According to China Railways, which has added thousands of trains to meet demand, Saturday was “the main peak” at stations before the holidays.
In contrast, when I went home for a Thanksgiving visit with family, I was stuck in long lines at airport and traffic on I95. No relief in site for U.S “migration.” Roads are in worse shape, lines are longer, congestion is horrible, and prices are higher then ever.
Rail, not even a choice. I can only imagine what high speed rail looks like by watching Ytube videos. It looks like Africa will have more high speed rail laid than the U.S. in the next decade. We are truly becoming a 3’d world country.
Why do they called people going to their hometowns for the holidays “migrants”? Are they trying to imply people going home for the holidays is bad?
Prejudice. Chinese Tier 1 cities are full of ex-peasants from lesser cities and the countryside who do not hold hukou, the household registration card that entitles you to be benefits such as medical care and children’s education. These people are tolerated as internal migrants but their official lives are elsewhere….
I suggest looking at the lists in the twiXt by Davide Maria De Luca, the terms and conditions that Simplicius pulls from the Russian site R Voenkor, and then Armchair Warrior, who seems the least flexible.
I’m not much interested in the purported wisdom of W. Churchill, but I do agree with the saying attributed to him: Jaw-jaw is better than war-war.
The problem for the Ukrainians is that a ceasefire hardens lines even further — the oblasts that Russia has taken aren’t going back and the longer they are incorporated in the Russian Federation, the more the probability approaches zero.
Big points:
—Some kind of neutral status for Ukraine.
—Size of Ukrainian army to be determined.
—Overdue elections to be held in Ukraine.
—EU application accepted. I wouldn’t count on membership — as I keep writing, I await the accession of plucky little Albania first.
—Re-building? Watch the rats scatter. It may fall to Russia.
—Russian territorial gains: Now a fact of life. Whoever encouraged the Ukrainian fantasy that it could withstand Russia has to be identified. Was it Joe Biden? Was it Boris Johnson? Nuland? Some Clinton or other? What folly.
Fortunately or unfortunately, if this is the best deal that the Ukrainian elite can get, and it sure looks like it, I’d hate to see what losing means.
But the wages of folly are the wages of folly.
Speaking of folly: I guess that dinner in Sebastopol for Boris Johnson and Volodya Zelensky is not in the cards for quite some time…
PS: Ukrainian irredentism here we come!
I wouldn’t count on the Russians agreeing to the Ukraine joining the EU as that organization has proven themselves as an enabler of military fighting. Back in 2021 the EU set up the “European Peace Facility” which was in fact specifically set up to supply military aid to the Ukraine-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Peace_Facility#History
The list is non starter. Point on Kiev military “modernization at force level breaks Russia primary point of SMO.
Says nothing about denazify
Nor restraining expanding NATO.
Nor when sanctions end and reparations begin
At least it’s a start of a peace plan if it’s true.
VS Biden/dems/msm of which there was none.
Yes, Trump seems ill informed viewing some of his statements.
No, it establishes there is no overlap in bargaining positions.
Putin has been making the distinction that he is willing to talk (which amounts to exchanging views) but he’s not willing to negotiate without getting acceptance of his minimum ask, which includes no Ukraine in NATO evah and no ceasefire while talks/negotiations are on. Russia continued fighting during the Istanbul negotiations.
The only real significance of this, I think, is that reality is starting to dawn on the West about Russian intentions, and about their own inability to frustrate them. We are seeing the public acting-out of an elite psychodrama, as more and more “unacceptable” conditions are accepted, and more and more hopes abandoned. It’s also a way of communicating to the Russians that the West recognises it has lost, but still hopes to engage in something it calls “negotiations” to salvage something from the wreckage.
I agree with you entirely although it still won’t solve the fundamental problem, which Trump is the last person capable of resolving. Even if Western elites finally reach the stage of genuine embarrassment (I don’t think they’ll ever feel guilt) and sincerely offer the minimal necessary concessions to Russia, nobody has any reason to trust them anyways.
As a result, the gap between a feasible “deal” and total NATO + Ukrainian capitulation has largely collapsed. For Russia (and any other guarantors) to accept NATO’s words as sincere, NATO would probably have to take such severe actions that it’s just “demilitarization” by another name.
And on some level, I suspect the military planners recognize that, which is why they’ve decided they may as well keep trying to bleed Russia on the way down.
It’s for this reason that I’m sticking with my judgement in last week’s essay, that only an indisputable Russian victory and the creation of facts on the ground could actually solve the problem, because at that point military intimidation will do what diplomacy clearly can’t. Neither side trusts the other (or to be more precise the mutual public accusations of betrayal have been so extreme that they are impossible to row back from politically.) In reality, the main obstacle to peace is the western fixation with the idea that there is still a “deal” to be done, and trying, even at this late stage, to get better “terms?”
Simple question.
How does any of this guarantee that no fool can have funny ideas 5, 10, 15 years from now, in whatever remains of Ukraine, in Poland, Romania, the Baltics, Georgia…?
And why would Russia accept such a stunt without any benefit nor security guarantees for itself?
“How does any of this guarantee that no fool can have funny ideas 5, 10, 15 years from now, in whatever remains of Ukraine, in Poland, Romania, the Baltics, Georgia…?”
But how would it be possible to guarantee that, short of preemptiively nuking each of those countries?
Overall I think that draft or whatever one wants to call it is closer to the Russian position than Zelensky’s delusions. EU troops in Ukraine is obviously a non-starter and that does not appear to be part of the base agreement and seems to be positioned as a matter to be conceded. The provision about arming Ukraine, even if framed as limited to certain weapons, will of course be broken and Russia knows that. As for the argument that Ukraine would rearm after the settlement, so will Russia. Is the draft silent on seizing Russian assets or did I miss that?
I do think that this conflict is going to be negotiated at some point and do not see Russia being able to defeat Ukraine to the extent that it will be able to hold territory west of the Dnepier and a hostile state with a large military on Russia’s border would be inevitable. That said, I am not sure if the Bandera/Lviv faction will have enough popular support to start yet another war with Russia and there will be no delusions among the Ukrainian populace about Ukraine joining NATO regardless of whether it wins such a conflict. I have never been called a Pollyanna, but maybe I am on this issue.
My final though is the terms might be intended to be rejected by Zelensky and provide cover to substantially end or reduce US support for Project Ukraine.
Nothing guarantees against the fool with funny ideas or good ideas or no ideas only a loud voice and a pleasing manner. The best outcome is one based on interest not trust and even then history will have it way.
Nothing guarantees against the fool with funny ideas or good ideas or no ideas only a loud voice and a pleasing manner. The best outcome is one based on interest not trust and even then history will have it way.
Not true.
The Romans’ approach of ‘they make a desert and call it peace’ and ‘Carthago Delenda Est’ and then salting the earth definitely provided such a guarantee.
re: Armchair warrior
9. All Soviet and Imperial-era memorials are to be restored.
What the heck? I don’t think this would be a demand coming from the Russian side. This is something one would expect from some Western person thinking Russia has imperialist, expansionist aims.
Here’s a compromise. Since the UK doesn’t seem to realize that the Crimean war is over and is still gung-ho for a fight, how about a 200K army for Ukraine, with the stipulation that it be permanently stationed in the UK and paid for entirely by the UK?
Central Valley farmworkers scared to show up to work over deportation fear NBC Los Angeles
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
There average age of a fieldworker in Godzone is 45… as younger Mexicans want no part of the action, and its navel orange harvesting time @ present, and around the periphery of an orchard you’ll see about 15-20 cars parked and farmworkers harvesting the bounty, it’d be so easy-peasy to round ’em up.
A day without orange juice….,
(gazes at navels} all outies)
Lukashenko’s election was a sham? How then characterize recent eventsm in Georgia and Romania?
The EU isn’t even a bad joke.
Last time Belarus had an election there was an effort to regime change him by the west and they even had their very own Belorussian Juan Guaidó – although this one was female. Lukashenko is not about to let that happen again so that Belarus can be turned into the next Ukraine.
Firefighters from around the US support Southern California Wildfire Today
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
If you’d told me 3 weeks ago that January wildfires would destroy over 15,000 homes and buildings, i’d feel oh so comfortable taking the under, were a wager to be legal tendered.
This is the new normal of The Big Heat, fires any old time of year, coming to a neighborhood near you.
Looming defeat of our man proxy in Ukraine probably wont register all that much with the populace as 98% of them couldn’t place it on a map. This means the MIC is lacking for an adversary, and no-a F-35 Firefighting plane ain’t gonna cut it, as its difficult to get wind drift right when dropping a load of 600 gallons of water @ 500 knots.
My doctor told me I have only 20 years to live, so the burden isn’t on yours truly, but truly your kids and grandkids to enlist in a war to stop attrition of our forests and land.
We can lessen fire’s affects & effects if we are willing…
Sorry to hear that about your medico pronouncing your doom. Twenty years out, hmmm, he must have been using one of those new finagled AI Medico Droids to make that prognostication. In a perversely incentivized manner, you are the lucky one. All I get lately from my Medica and her Autonomous Insurance Denial sidekicks are demands for more “tests,” presumably in hopes of finding more “revenue streams” lurking within my poor old carcase. So far, I have been able to avoid such importunings without triggering an “intervention.” I do, however, predict such a situation arising. [If the dogs refuse to eat the dog food, then let the whippings commence!]
I am tempted one fine day to challenge my Medica to examine me and pontificate without benefit of electronic prompting. Still and all, I feel that I can, so far, anticipate and forestall the Medical Industrial Conglomerate’s persistent attempts to “maximize profit” at my expense. Better the Witch Doctors I know than those I do not.
Even in my most cynical ideations I never imagined that I would be placed in a situation where I viewed my medical advisors as adversaries. But there we are.
Stay safe all.
4 score and 3 years later, was his actual address to me.
Hmmm. Dr. Longstreet was it?
All humans are dishonest and corrupt, and those who deny it are lying.
On the 2nd of December my 10 year old male cat (abandoned street cat FIV positive) Kedi Augustus was given 3-4 days to live, having lost 1 kilo of weight and suffering a terrible eye and mouth infection.
I took him to a different vet the very next day; his eye and mouth are fine and he has put on nearly a kilo now. He’s doing fine. Seek a second opinion.
Yea, but your tax dollars probably funded a genocide or two meanwhile.
The earth is flat, and those who deny it are lying.
Logical fallacies are easy to recognize, unless someone is dishonest and corrupt.
Also, obvious troll is obvious. Not that I have anything against trolling per se, but I mind the quality of it. Please make more effort in future short-form literal endeavours.
Since his comments did not wind up in moderation, I did not see them until a short while ago.
He will no longer be posting here. And yes, his comments were lame as well as badly informed and offensive.
Velyka Novosilka Falls Without Fight, as ‘100 Day Peace Plan’ Reportedly “Leaked” Simplicius the Thinker.
What a deluded, or, at best, highly misleading headline. Alexander Mercouris has been following this action closely and according to his reports it has been some of the fiercest fighting of the war. Simplicius may mean something like ‘ended with a whimper rather than a bang’ but to say the town fell — after many weeks — ‘without a fight’ is absurd.
He’s referring to the final assault after the initial fighting surrounded the City in a kettle. The Ukrainians retreated after the Russians had cut off their supply lines – which took a long hard battle. It wasn’t like Marianople where the Ukranians hung in until the bitter end. The Russians effectively walked into Novosilka unopposed.
The Duran did a Frontline update from Kursk w/ Patrick Lancaster this past weekend. It was seriously disturbing listening to first hand account of crimes against innocent civilians being conducted by Ukraine. And, the U.S. is complicit in this horror, no regard for human life. Humanity, writ large, has learned nothing from bloody 20th century. Demonic forces are still creating untold misery and suffering.
https://youtu.be/2HN6T32c7mQ?si=K9ZteTkE7d2dW78B
Why would you listen to such stuff? And why would you trust “first hand” accounts? People li.
One should only consume US Government approved, pre-chewed, and pre-digested stuff.
“Inside the race for Greenland’s mineral wealth”
I note that Trump has not mentioned how much the US would be willing to pay for Greenland but it must be in the trillions considering all its mineral wealth. Maybe that is why he is saying nothing but how Denmark should just “hand it over” but for what exactly? A pat on the head? And the people there? Maybe he will take a note from his idea for Gaza and clear them all out and send them to, say, Alaska as they kinda resemble the people there so they should be cool with that. Or whatever goes through Trump’s brain. You wonder if he spent a lot of time playing the board game “Risk” when younger.
“You wonder if he spent a lot of time playing the board game “Risk” when younger.”
My money is on Monopoly. That is a real estate game par excellence. [Trump loves him some real estate gamesmanship.]
Nah, you’re thinking of Monopsony…
…every time you Pass Gov, collect $200 million
“Monopsony,” is that the game where one or two ‘players’ see the board and everyone else plays blind? Sounds familiar….
Schrödinger’s Mat?
Played with Hawking’s Dice.
“Not only does God play dice but… he sometimes throws them where they cannot be seen.”
“The Gods of Finance do play dice with our universe.”
Read: https://www.hawking.org.uk/in-words/lectures/does-god-play-dice
Those Get Out of Jail Free cards seems to be very popular lately.
I think he was more of a Chutes and Ladders guy.
– ‘Gabbard’s path through Intelligence Committee narrows ahead of key hearing’ – The Hill
A revealing passage from the article:
“Complicating the situation for Gabbard is that her problems are different from those that plagued Hegseth, one of Trump’s more controversial nominees.
“Hegseth’s issues were largely centered on personal matters, including allegations of sexual improprieties and drunkenness.
“Gabbard’s are almost all policy-focused, which have been harder for some members to overcome.”
Yes, Gabbard’s issues are “policy-focused” – as in calling out the lies behind our policies and questioning some of our war-mongering ways. Those are *real* issues of bipartisan concern, not like the fake partisan me-too stuff about Hegseth.
No one gets to be on the Intelligence Committees without being cleared by the Intelligence community. Gabbard’s “path” has always been quite “narrow.” I think her confirmation will depend on how much arm twisting and public support Trump is willing to provide on her behalf. It would be nice if he started with a very public ripping of Brennan along the lines of today’s NC posts, linking Gabbard’s opposition to the whole Russiagate apparatus. But my default position is pessimism until proven otherwise.
Trump’s people have claimed they will make recess appointments for nominees not confirmed. We shall see – I’m unclear as to the legality of this.
Gabbard might want to stop surfing for a bit, considering the bloody mindedness of the “Intelligence Community.” Otherwise, she might meet up with this character.
See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hi6b5LU4mmY&ab_channel=JohnKorn
It looks like the AI bubble is popping quite a bit earlier than expected, seriously limiting the expected looting.
My thanks to the Chinese researchers who released Deepseek, this will somewhat slow the complete crapification of Western “Civilization”, such as it is.
It also gave me the best laugh I have had in many a month when I thought about the look on Sam Altman’s face when he learned about it.
I got in on the ground floor with Nvidia, mistakenly thinking it was a Scandinavian hand cream stock-not a hand-jive dream stock, but it pays to be lucky.
Ian Welsh is having fun this morning: Small Chinese Company Hilariously Crushes American AI.
Reminds me of the jousting scene in Mark Twain’s book A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur’s Court, wherein a 19th Century Connecticut Yankee has been transported back in time to Arthur’s England. In the jousting scene the upstart Yankee riding a polo pony and using a rope lasso/lariat beats the Arthurian knight dressed in heavy armor riding a draft horse-sized charger and using a long lance; the knight’s lance aim and timing the polo pony easily dodged. / ;)
Here’s an interview with Arnaud Bertrand on Breaking Points about this AI development:
Tech Oligarchs PANIC Over China DeepSeek AI DOMINANCE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quILe6WoLgs
One of the aspects they discuss is that so many of the best and brightest American scientists and engineers go to Wall St rather than actually working in their fields. China has apparently limited salaries in the financial industry to prevent this from happening in China. You have to admit this makes sense in America – the pay is way higher, and even if one messes up and crashes the world economy as happen in the GFC, nobody goes to jail for some pretty obvious fraud, and they still get their bonuses.
Despite the fact that Trump is blowing up the EV bubble!
What Chinese EVs will do to U.S. Auto industry…. and Tesla.
Benefits of early introduction are becoming very time limited and in case of AI the hype is more tentative/time limited
And a belated thanks to Lambert for his years of effort here, he has exhibited what is sometimes called a “Judicial Temperament”.
Something that requires both intellectual and Moral Courage.
The occasional shout out to AA and the other 12 step groups is also something I deeply appreciate, I doubt that there is an adult American who has not lost someone they cared deeply about to Alcohol or other drugs.
I have, too many.
And I have also had people I care about deeply find an answer and come back from what was a hopeless addiction.
One of those just celebrated their daughter’s 9th Birthday, clean and sober for many years.
Have any undocumented people on the Trump deportation planes (to Colombia, Brazil, etc) been non-felons and workers who were in the country peacefully working for 5+ years?
I feel this is a huge detail not addressed by these media reports.
I recall 1 newsstory that an Ecuadorian non-felon working in NJ at a warehouse was detained by ICE. It would be interesting to know if he was released, still being detained indefinitely, or deported to Ecuador.
It must be one size fits all. If they are such model citizens, they can go home, and apply legally.
The problem with Trump is that he still listens to the CIA types. Of course he has to because they always have the whip hand in politics in the USA. If the US had a record of honest and honorable dealings then the Istanbul II plan would be a starting off position. Because the USA and its minions are fundamentally and systemically dishonest and corrupt it’s hard to see how the Russians can take anything seriously. The US has created a rules-based-order where the only “order” is the use of overt and (for the US) mainly covert military force with a leavening of bribes. Such a world is impossible.
In ancient times hostages were taken to guarantee an honoring of agreements. I suggest some Senators be hostages who could vote remotely from Moscow.
Didn’t CIA types do there best to pooch him last time? And those 51 signatories. I suspect that he will apply ‘trust but verify’ a bit better this time.
Now for something different:
Happy birthday, Mozart. A little night music to celebrate. Piano, utube, ~8+minutes.
Mozart – Eine Kleine Nachtmusik on Piano | Vinheteiro |
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jo7ox5ptjGY
Russia’s Wartime Economy Isn’t As Weak As It Looks —
A good summary. As the author points out correctly: based on the usual macro indicators (military spending as % of GNP and as % of total govt expenditures, annual budget deficit as % of GNP, total government debt as % of GNP), Russia’s economy is barely breaking a sweat so far.
Just a few minor points I would add:
“Western sanctions and a shrinking trade surplus contributed to a sharp depreciation of the ruble last year…” : actually the ruble is pretty much back to where it was in mid-November, before it took its usual pre-New Year swoon. Today it’s 97 to the $, vs 105 on 26 November, and 97 on 1 November. On 24-2-22, it stood at 80. Not a whole lot of change despite 3 years of sanctions and war.
“Despite being cut off from most external sources of capital…” — Well, foreign investment has never had much macroeconomic importance since Putin took over in 2000. Even up to 24-2-22, a lot of “foreign” investment was really Russian-controlled working capital being repatriated from offshores like Cyprus, mainly big corporations and oligarchs. Since 24-2-22, this money tends to stay in-country.
The 21% central bank rate grabs the headlines, but it’s only the nominal rate. What matters more is the real interest rate, which takes us back to the question of what Russia’s actual inflation rate is. He quotes the central bank’s estimate of 8.9%, which I think is a gross underestimate (the Russians also fiddle with their inflation data, just like the USA, ECB, et al). Let’s look at some other data points: Russia plans to boost the minimum wage by 16.6% this year:
https://www.akm.ru/eng/news/the-cabinet-of-ministers-intends-to-increase-the-minimum-wage-in-2025-to-22-thousand-rubles/
And state employees’ salaries will rise by 13.2%:
https://en.iz.ru/en/1804236/2024-12-09/state-duma-said-about-growth-salaries-state-employees-2025
So if we assume that Russia is like all other countries and never raises wages sufficiently to cover actual price inflation, then we can assume a true (honest) inflation rate of at least 16.6%, so let’s round up to 17%. This implies a real interest rate of 4%, which seems reasonable to me. Then again, I’m an old-school type who believes in the quaint notion that money should have a cost attached to it, and not just flow freely from credit spigots like Bud Lite at a college frat party. The fact that Russians are moaning in unison re Nabiullina’s 21% nominal rate proves that Russians like to complain. And lobby for special treatment.
I don’t see the wheels falling off of Russia’s economy anytime soon.
But, but…
What is the local price for a bottle of Malbec, F.O.B. Mendoza?
Don’t know about FOB Mendoza, but the Malbec I’m drinking right now (DDP Moscow) cost me 950 Russian clams. How it’s economically feasible to ship this bottle across the planet at such a reasonable price is beyond me, but hey….. I just drink the stuff.
Freight On Board is an old time way of saying it comes from Mendoza where all Malbecs seem to multiply.
I don’t get it either, A bottle of Malbec is $6 or $7 at the Grocery Outlet here, gulp gulp.
>>>Southern California rains arrive, heightening mudslide concerns in scorched areas
Building in steep terrain, which people love to live in, can be problematic. Massive replanting can mitigate the damage in time for next year’s rains, but even though it has been done in the past in California, I no longer believe that it will be done in the past as the incompetence created by the corruption has gotten too great. It’s like with all the damage done to the fire department, which helped the fires get so destructive.
An amazing string of bountiful winters allowed brush to flourish and then 8 months of near zero rain was a recipe for disaster, just add 100 mph winds.
Feh, 3-4 months of rain followed by 8-9 months of hot, bone-dry weather is normal. The souped-up Santa Ana wind is new, but so it is the fire department’s decrepitude. Then there is the desire of idiot homeowners not wanting to clear away the brush around their homes. The scary bit is that there are similar conditions in the Bay Area although we have had more rain meaning no dry brush. But come next August or September.
Come on now, no rain essentially from May to December in SoCal is most unusual, and if only somebody of influence had noticed.
We’re talking near record lack of rainfall since records were kept in Cali.
>>>and if only somebody of influence had noticed.
I will defer to your experience, especially as I haven’t been in the south for a while, which makes me poorly informed.
However, the apparent blindness of the local government of the weather especially the fire department’s likely need just reinforces my skepticism that anything will change for the better.
I’m nowhere near the action and told everybody on here that SoCal would be burning, a few days before the fires broke out… it was pretty obvious to me-the location being a mystery of course.
Hard for a fire department to pre-react everywhere, in that instance.
I just watched a Twitter/X clip by Jimmy Dore of hail falling in his back yard, somewhere in Southern CA. I’m sure this weather weirdness has nothing to do with all those airplane emissions I see dimming out the blue sky.
Requiem for a heavy wait in Nickel City…
I now know how Houston Oilers fans felt in the 1970’s when they couldn’t get past the Pittsburgh Steelers, yeah Mahomes & the KC Chiefs are that good~
The Bills played a very good game. Josh Allen was outstanding. Only a disputable call on the last 1st down attempt and some poor coaching decisions near the goal line kept them out of the Super Bowl. Buffalo will be back next year. KC make it look easy but the play calling and clock management are amazing. Add Mahomes to that and it’s magic. I say KC -3 for the hat trick.
I watched the game from the Nickel City and you won’t be hearing me complaining about the refs. Chiefs won fair and square. Now the long winter of suffering for us begins. I may have picked a bad week to stop drinking anti-freeze.
Perhaps the Iggles will end the Reid-Swiftian reign of terror, but it may be that the two best teams in the league played yesterday.
I was thinking and saying to others this game might be much better than the Super Bowl. Now that the teams are finalized I am sure of it. The Bills / Chiefs game was one of great skill by two excellent teams. I hope that I am wrong, but I fear this next game will be brutal instead of skillful. Bluto vs. Popeye without the spinach.
Or the refs are that bad – https://sports.yahoo.com/afc-championship-bills-denied-1st-down-on-controversial-spot-at-critical-juncture-in-loss-to-chiefs-022532157.html
Looks like he got the 1st down to me.
Of course, I’m biased. We can’t have the Chiefs challenging any of those Pats records now, can we?
None of the talking heads on TV have remarked that the ref on the far side of the play, the one who thought it was a first down, had his view obscured by Chris Jones standing on the line to gain between the ref and the play.
Should trust the judgement of someone who cannot distinguish “It’s” from “Its” as to who is fit to be awarded the Nobel Prize in Literature?
Those that judge Nobel Prizes for Literature and Peace are probably closer to literacy level of Mike than Kathleen Tyson.