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Links 1/29/2025

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Forest fire threatens Asia’s largest bird park in Chai Nat Nation [Thailand]

Microplastics Found In the Brains of Mice Within Hours of Consumption PhysOrg

COVID-19/Pandemics

Climate/Environment

The coming great global land reshuffle Financial Times

‘Last Ice Area’ in the Arctic could disappear much sooner than previously thought PhysOrg

Extreme heat will kill millions of people in Europe without rapid action Nature

How the Mafia is weaponizing wildfires CNN

a href=”https://spectrum.ieee.org/microreactor” rel=”nofollow”>These Microreactors Could Bring Nuclear Power to Remote Areas IEEE Spectrum (Chuck L)

US Solar Boom Continues, But It’s Offset By Rising Power Use ars technica

China?

White House evaluates effect of China AI app DeepSeek on national security Reuters (Kevin W)

‘Cooperation with China will severely impact Trump’s policy on Georgia’ JAMnews

Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo warns of dire consequences if UN fails to intervene in crisis Anadolu Agency

European Disunion

Denmark to pump $2bn into Arctic security as Trump eyes Greenland Aljazeera

Virtually no Greenlanders want to join the US, new poll finds EurActiv (Micael T)

How NATO and the Pentagon simulate the destruction of Europe Thomas Fazi (Micael T)

French PM angers Socialists with reference to ‘submersion,’ a term popular on far right Le Monde

Taxes for venture capitalists are being lowered – paid for by increased taxes on alcohol and tobacco Breakit via machine translation (Micael T)

Old Blighty

Reeves plans to create ‘Silicon Valley’ between Oxford and Cambridge Guardian (Kevin W). I had a long discussion with a UK technologist who now lives here on how insanely hard it was to start a new business in the UK (as in tons of stupid bureaucratic obstacles, staring with the bank putting him through hoops to open a business account, and not of the KYC sort).

Cardiff University to cut 400 staff and drop subjects including nursing and music Guardian (Kevin W)

Israel v. The Resistance

Israel: Netanyahu to be first foreign leader to visit Trump DW

Israeli strikes on south Lebanon wound 24: health ministry Arab News

New Not-So-Cold War

SCOTT RITTER: Trump’s Doomed Plan for Ukraine Consortium News

Ukrainian energy infrastructure on verge of collapse – Forbes RT

Trump & Ukraine: The Coming Battle Over Conscription Antiwar.com (Kevin W)

Or see ThreadReader version (Chuck L):

Tucker Carlson claims Biden administration tried to ‘kill Putin’ Politico. Subhead notes the absence of evidence.

Syraqistan

What is Turkey’s vision for the Kurds in Syria? Middle East Eye

Big Brother is Watching You Watch

Baguette bandits strike again with ransomware and a side of mockery The Register

CVS Is Turning Locked Shelves Into an Excuse to Make You Download Its App Gizmodo (Paul R). Talk loudly in the store about how you are moving all your prescriptions to Walgreens as you get the staffer to open the cabinets.

New VPN Backdoor Bruce Schneier

Imperial Collapse Watch

U.S. Air Force F-35 Filmed Crashing at Key Arctic Air Base Military Watch

The ‘Iron Dome for America’ Boondoggle Daniel Larison

The True Cost of Guantánamo Antiwar.com (Kevin W)

Trump 2.0

Trump’s ‘Flood the Zone’ Strategy Leaves Opponents Gasping in Outrage New York Times. The silence of prominent Democrats, like either Clinton (Bill would obviously be the better spokescritter), Obama, Schumer, Pelosi, is deafening.

Trump Buyouts Mirror Elon Musk’s Twitter Purge Ken Klippenstein

Federal judge temporarily blocks Trump administration freeze on federal grants and loans Associated Press

NY attorney general sues Trump administration as state gets locked out of Medicaid Gothamist

Trump’s Spending Halt Spawns Day of Chaos Before Getting Blocked Bloomberg

Private emails show RFK Jr. making false claims about Covid-19 shots, linking vaccines to autism STAT (KLG)

Pete Hegseth’s Worldview Is Even Worse Than His Personal Behavior Current Affairs (fk)

EPA fires science advisers Politico

Trump signs order to block federal support for minors’ gender transitions CNN

Trump doesn’t talk softly, but does he carry a big stick? Asia Times (Kevin W). Important.

On day one, Trump wasn’t the dictator he promised to be. Jacobin (Robin K)

Trump White House Confirms that Drones Over New Jersey were Approved by FAA Larry Johnson

Immigration

ICE agents in NYC area take at least 20 people into custody in early morning operation, sources say CBS

Dramatic Immigration Arrests Rattle Bronx and Upper Manhattan THE CITY

Antitrust

Record $4.5 Billion EU Fine Punished Its Innovation, Google Tells EU Court Reuters. The claim that Google is in the business of innovation, as opposed to rent extraction, is laughable.

Cloud Services Market Is ‘Not Working,’ Says UK Regulator Gov.UK

Mr. Market is Moody

Glut of New Houses for Sale in the South Is Bigger Even than during the Housing Bust. The Glut in the West Gets Close Wolf Richter

AI

How China’s DeepSeek Outsmarted America Wall Street Journal (Li)

Microsoft Probing If DeepSeek-Linked Group Improperly Obtained OpenAI Data Bloomberg

Guillotine Watch

Class Warfare

Late Stage Social Capitalism Matthew Eric Bassett

The end of neoliberalism? aeon

Antidote du jour. Timotheus: “Ffrom Sharon J. Sheron in Story Lake, Indiana”

And a bonus (guurst):

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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195 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    ‘Ed Zitron
    @edzitron
    I’m so sorry I can’t stop laughing. OpenAI, the company built on stealing literally the entire internet, is crying because DeepSeek may have trained on the outputs from ChatGPT. They’re crying their eyes out. What a bunch of hypocritical little babies.’

    Actually it is more funny than this when you think about it. The whole ethos of the Silicon Valley tech bros is to disrupt entire industries and wreck people’s ability to work and make a living so that they can make personal fortunes. But now they are complaining that the Chinese have disrupted their new multi-trillion dollar industry and threatens their own livelihood. Excuse me as I go look for my tiny violin.

    Reply ↓
      1. Mark Gisleson

        If you use ChatGPT, it’s next to impossible to believe that DeepSeek stole their data. Cleaning up bad data is harder than creating new data. DeepSeek made an effort not to put garbage into its AI. ChatGPT is garbage.

        I hear the folks saying DeepSeek isn’t any better than the other AIs but my experience is that the more I know about a subject, the more I appreciate how good DeepSeek’s answer is and its ability to chat with me to explain its decision making process is really quite remarkable.

        Not perfect but incredibly helpful initial search tool. Ask it about your favorite foods, bands, movie stars, etc. And just for fun, ask it about US censorship of social media. That response is 100x more on topic than any thumbsucker the NYTimes has ever written on that subject.

        Reply ↓
        1. Skip Intro

          Training an AI on AI generated data is notoriously toxic to the AI, so the claim from OpenAI sounds like a lie.

          Maybe a dose of lawfare copium while they try to liquidate their own positions.

          Reply ↓
      2. Pelham

        Then the Chinese could ask DeepSeek what to do about that. Which would be an ideal outcome, creating a doom loop that keeps all AIs fully occupied and leaves humanity alone.

        Reply ↓
      3. Ignacio

        I asked DeepSeek if it can outcompete ChatGPT. The conclusion was:

        DeepSeek could outcompete ChatGPT in specific areas or markets if it offers unique advantages or addresses limitations of ChatGPT. However, achieving broad dominance would require significant innovation, resources and strategic positioning. The AI landscape is highly competitive, and success often depends on meeting user needs better than existing solutions

        Reply ↓
    2. Zagonostra

      I got a “server busy” message on DeepSeek early this morning. I wonder if it is being overwhelmed with new users. I also notice that on “politically sensitive” issues, it provides the “consensus view.” Not much help for researcher.

      Reply ↓
        1. Adam Eran

          One additional note: I was indirectly connected to someone who had an interesting info-tainment software. They showed it to Disney, and immediately thereafter experienced a firestorm of hacker attacks.

          American business!

          Reply ↓
      2. danpaco

        I have a true PMC friend on social media who’s also an AI acolyte.
        A few days ago he proudly posted that he managed to break DeepSeek by asking about Tianeman Square.
        For the life of me I still cant figure out what AI is supposed fix!

        Reply ↓
    3. Mikel

      Justice for Suchir Balaji.

      STOP THE STEAL…whether in the USA or China.
      The biggest heist of all time. Stealing intellectual property and calling it “productivity.”

      Quite a bit of jealousy wrapped up in that “disruption”.

      Reply ↓
    4. Eric Anderson

      Just more evidence that competition is not the capitalists’ default state. Monopoly is.

      And while DARVO is a concept typically reserved for narcissist domestic violence perpetrators: ask yourself, what *is* a corporation in the western world today?

      Well … they are narcissist domestic violence perpetrators writ large.
      And boy oh boy, they DARVO way better than any lone domestic violence perpetrators.
      Entire PR wings paid to do nothing but DARVO away their toxic “business” (rape?) models.

      Reply ↓
  2. Donald Obama

    I was going to ask why anyone would listen to the genocide-enabling, war-mongering, mass domestic surveillance supporting Tim Kaine – then I realized that describes most senators and his tweet is directed at federal workers, who are more or less unbothered by the aforementioned attributes.

    Reply ↓
    1. albrt

      I was going to ask whether anyone has a more credible source than Tim Kaine for whether a president can grant severance pay to large groups of people. Especially if the president is doing it by putting the employees on voluntary paid leave for a period of time and not replacing them while they are still technically employed.

      Not that I particularly trust Donald Trump, but I guess at this point I trust Democrats even less.

      Glad I don’t work for the government.

      Reply ↓
      1. jsn

        With all the government cash flow disruptions team Trump is pressing I’ll be surprised if there isn’t a some kind of economy wide flame out in the next 6 month.

        Maybe it’s the “move fast and break things” ethos, maybe it’s deliberately precipitating a crisis ASAP to indulge maximally in not letting it go to waste.

        Waste for whom will point at who gets wasted. If the Bannon / Vance wing has a future, it won’t be the working class, or at least not working class centric. I’m skeptical at present about a Bannon / Vance future.

        Reply ↓
      2. Yves Smith Post author

        You don’t need to be Tim Kaine or anyone special to know the answer is no. The Administration can only spend money appropriated by Congress. There is no funding authorized for this.

        Reply ↓
        1. scott s.

          Seems like just a repeat of VERA/VSIP authority used by OPM in the past. Don’t think you need a special appropriation for it.

          Reply ↓
          1. juno mas

            Well, VERA/VSIP are constrained by federal law and finding ‘traction’ in the workforce. (If you’re close to retiring age then Go For It!)

            See:

            What information does OPM need to make a decision on
            my agency’s request?
            The law is very specific on the kinds of information that agencies need
            to provide in order for their request to be evaluated. This includes
            (but is not limited to): identification of which agency components
            have excess personnel and will be covered by the incentive; which
            positions and functions will be reduced or eliminated; the time period
            during which incentives will be offered and the numbers of employees
            covered. In the case of VSIP, additional detailed information is
            needed to understand the expected changes from the agency’s
            current structure and staffing levels, to the future/desired state to be
            achieved through the use of the incentives. Please visit
            http://www.opm.gov/reshaping for more information and additional
            guidance on how to request VERA and/or VSIP.

            This is just another political stunt.

            Reply ↓
  3. SocalJimObjects

    Reeves plans to create ‘Silicon Valley’ between Oxford and Cambridge

    https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2025/01/25/clueless/
    – Where is all the electricity going to come from? “If the UK’s net zero targets are met (in just 10 years’ time) Britain will have an electricity capacity deficit of 68GW”
    – How about water? ” AI data centres don’t simply consume more electricity, they generate much more heat than an ordinary data centre. Which is why the UK government’s decision to set aside land for it first AI region in semi-arid Oxfordshire is pure insanity.”
    – And many more.

    Would Richard Murphy please come to the nearest courtesy phone? We need more YouTube videos on how everything will be all right if the government just prints more money. How about just printing electricity, water, food, etc and giving them directly to the people, zero money printing required? Serious minds wander.

    Reply ↓
      1. The Rev Kev

        You don’t think that if such a ‘Silicon Valley’ was built, that they would not try to influence and indoctrinate the students & staff of Oxford and Cambridge where the British elite are educated, do you? I can see it now. There would be scholarships provided, contributions made to university coffers, traineeships for worthy candidates, sponsored students, heavy influence on the curriculum that would benefit them, etc.

        Reply ↓
        1. Michaelmas

          Rev Kev: There would be scholarships provided, contributions made to university coffers, traineeships for worthy candidates, sponsored students, heavy influence on the curriculum that would benefit them, etc.

          I’m sorry, I don’t understand. How would this be different? How do you imagine these places run — and have always run, back to the days of empire — and offer the scholarships they do, among other things?

          Reply ↓
          1. The Rev Kev

            I would imagine that that “Silicon Valley” would have their very own campuses built in both Oxford and Cambridge and entrench themselves there. Worse case scenario? Oxford and Cambridge would just become an English version of Stanford uni. :)

            Reply ↓
      3. Revenant

        Cambridge had a thriving grassroots tech economy because IBM was refused permission to build its European HQ there in the 1960’s (the town was too small, the Colleges objected etc).

        IBM went to Winchester – which never developed a start up economy – and now IBM is pretty much shut.

        All my working life I have heard proposals for an Oxford-Cambridge economic sphere. The problem is that the infrastructure required is unsexy and politically dangerous (such as reinstating the Oxford-Cambridge railway line, with the attendant risk of cost overruns, or building a dual carriageway between the two, the road is mainly single-lane!). Plus new issues of power and water supply.

        Instead, Rachel Reeves is just skipping to the end – companies! growth! profits! – when in reality the government can only create the infrastructure to enable these things to happen.

        It is embarrassing that she thinks this will convince anybody, let alone actually work. The announcement has been met with a great yawn, at least. We’ve heard it all before.

        Also, there is already a name for the economic area between Oxford, Cambridge and London. It is called the Golden Triangle. It contains nearly all of the national research institutes of any note, plus five Universities (Imperial, UCL, Kings, Oxford, Cambridge) and the major teaching and research hospitals etc. Etc.

        Reply ↓
  4. Zagonostra

    >SCOTT RITTER: Trump’s Doomed Plan for Ukraine Consortium News

    But Bessent will be working against a history of the U.S. and its European allies overselling sanctions as a tool to tear down the Russian economy (the opposite, in fact, has happened.)

    John Helmer’s appearance on Dima on Dialogue Works yesterday left me feeling a lot more sober/pessimistic on the impact of NATO’s war against Russia than reading this article by Scott Ritter. Elvira Nabiullina, Russian Central Bank director, has interest rates set at ~21%. Life may be fine in Moscow, but the hinterlands can’t make long term capital investments for the future at those high rates, as Helmer points out. Since early phase of this conflict when Ritter said Russia will be like a “hot knife going through butter,” the impression one gets is that Russia will prevail, slow and steady wins the day. I think it will, based on what I’ve been reading. But the decimation visited on Russia and their “brothers” in Ukraine has been devastating. I don’t think it will be forgotten in 100 years or ever.

    Ritter also tends to disparage the UK as impotent, not even able to “fill a soccer stadium.” I’ve not heard or read any account where he discusses the long term impact of the Brits infiltration into U.S. politics, e.g., Christopher Steele. British interest have been confounded with American interest since the beginning of WWI or sooner. Nothing has changed in that respect. Why a Russia, a former ally became our mortal enemy cannot be understood without the history as outlined Caroll Quigley “The Anglo-American Establishment, and his other longer work “Tragedy and Hope.”

    Did Paul Volcker’s policy of jacking up interest rates close to 20% contribute to Carter’s defeat, along with hostages? Is the 21% interest rates set by Russia’s CB might have many people thinking about ousting Putin. As for Trump’s approach, it will be confined to the allowable parameters set by others in the intelligence and national security permanent bureaucracy and those who control it.

    https://www.youtube.com/live/z1dXSe1ueeo?si=2SYUUX2v-zgERjlY

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith Post author

      No, it was not the Volcker high rates. It was the increase in inflation from a high base in the second oil shock administered by Iran.

      What counts is real wage growth and it is way ahead of inflation. There may be sectors of the country or industries that are flagging, but that’s the key metric for Russians, not businesses being able to borrow. Russia WANTS to slow that down to reduce inflation.

      Helmer also despises Putin. Despite Helmer’s insinuation that he’s in Russia, he isn’t and hasn’t been for some time. He was exiled by Putin many many years ago.

      So unless Helmer has info that Russian workers in the hinterlands are losing out to inflation, his factoid isn’t relevant. Again, Russia wants to choke business borrowing right now.

      Reply ↓
      1. dingusansich

        Helmer portentously claimed Russia faces a “revolutionary moment” because of the war’s effect on the economy. It’s one thing to note inflationary pressures and disagreement about steps to quell them, splashing some cold water on alt-media triumphalism about the imminent victory of the Russian juggernaut, but his take did seem excessively dark. However it did nicely match the inky gloom of Helmer’s video setting, so props for thematic consistency.

        Reply ↓
      2. anahuna

        Thanks, Yves, for the useful background on Helmer, whose tone I often find disturbing.

        On inflation or other conditions in Russia, I have no real knowledge and certainly no large data, but here is the small, single voice of a woman, a Chinese immigrant who recently wrote to a Chinese-American writer friend of mine:

        “I’m not a Chinese teacher in Belarus any longer, I quit the job at the end of July and now work in a Chinese factory (you know the film “American Factory”, right? It is almost the same) of a small city Murom in Russia. I’m the interpreter and the translator in the workshop. Literature seems far away from me, and the research as a scholar too…. And sometimes I even don’t know whether I will have a future or not, because everything is unclear when you work as a foreign migrant-labor, or Coolie. The Russian government uses various means to restrict migration. And the terrible inflation, too. I’m not sure the future, really”

        Reply ↓
        1. anahuna

          From another letter, on medical care:

          “I have a question about medical care in the United States: after taking the operation I had to pay for two doctors “envelopes”, and in which there was 20 thousand rubles, that meats I paid them 1/3 of my monthly salary to “grating them for the successful operation” (but generally I should have paid them earlier, before the operation). My Russian friends say that it’s normal in Russia, because the medical staffs in the public hospitals receive very little salary. Is that normal in the United States, I mean, give money in an envelope to the doctor, and the little pay of the medical staffs?

          Reply ↓
        2. Yves Smith Post author

          I hate to tell you, but from my many years of people sending me story leads, nothing from a single source can be relied upon, unless they provide documents to back up their claims. It’s not even that they are trying to deceive but that they are missing important parts of the picture. Here, as someone who admits she’s an exploitable worker, she will be the last in that factory to get wage increases.

          Reply ↓
        3. PlutoniumKun

          Genuine, on the ground stories from people are important of course, but as Yves says, context is vital.

          There is a very popular series in the Irish Times called ‘New to the Parish’ (its behind a paywall) which every week allows an immigrant (or child of immigrants) to Ireland to tell their stories. Its been going on for at least a decade. What I find fascinating is just how varied the stories are, such that you’d think they were describing a different country. One account can give a harrowing account of constant racism and aggression, the one the following week paints Ireland as a heaven for minorities, where black or Asian kids can grow up utterly oblivious to the problems other immigrants face in other countries. I’m sure all (or most) of the stories are genuine and accurate from the perspective of the person telling it, but to find the reason for the variation you have to dig deeper into the specific background and experiences of the individual.

          Reply ↓
          1. anahuna

            It’s precisely because of the importance of variation that I would be delighted to hear other first-person accounts from Russia. The ones I’ve seen so far, mostly on YouTube, come from foreigners who have chosen to be there at least partly for ideological reasons. In this case, the young woman seems to have a great and sincere love for the Russian language but finds it very hard to support herself there. It’s always possible that her letter reflects only, as Yves suggested, her easily exploitable status. Or maybe she is one of those fated beings who, as someone wrote of Marina Tsvetayeva, “would have found tragedy even if tragedy had not so easily found her”.

            Impossible for me to determine how representative her experience is. I’d be interested to know, for example, whether doctors’ pay in public hospitals is miserably low all over Russia, or is that true only in certain places. Is the practice of “tipping” in advance for an operation widespread, or a local aberration?

            Reply ↓
            1. PlutoniumKun

              I’d be interested too – so much information available is ‘tainted’ one way or another by people with ideological interests in promoting a particular line (or just believing what they want to believe).

              From the little I know about medical care in Russia (various conversations I’ve had with some Russians), there is a very wide geographical disparity. Many poorer rural areas struggle to get doctors and end up with the dregs of the medical system, while healthcare is pretty good in the main cities.

              Reply ↓
            2. Daniil Adamov

              Either Stalin or the first People’s Commissar for Healthcare is often quoted as saying that “the people will feed a good doctor themselves, as for bad doctors, we don’t need them”. Whether that’s a real quote or not, doctors being poorly paid was a feature of the Soviet system that has not vanished to this day. There are indeed serious geographic disparities, as with all other salaries. The best pay for doctors (as well as teachers, etc.) is in the Arctic north, since you have to pay professionals extra to stay there. Big cities, especially Moscow, have it relatively good too (but that’s partly needed to keep up with the cost of living). Smaller non-northern towns would have it worst. I think the full Soviet system, with its implied expectation of additional support from the population, survives in some of those places, though not elsewhere. But the complaints that doctors don’t earn enough to cover basic needs are common and constant.

              A quick search finds a story from 2024 that says about 57,5% of doctors complain of this and indeed many of them earn scandalously little. You can try google-translating it if you’re interested: https://rtvi.com/news/bolee-50-vrachej-zhaluyutsya-na-to-chto-zarplata-ne-pokryvaet-bazovye-potrebnosti/

              Reply ↓
            3. Daniil Adamov

              Adding, personally I have not had to pay anything for my operation (in Yekaterinburg, one of the biggest cities after the capitals, in 2022) and I have not heard of the practice being current until now. But in view of that quote and the reputation of the system it does not surprise me much to hear this would happen in Murom, which, as far as I know, is one of the many old Russian cities that have been seriously neglected for the last few decades. Though it also seems to be far from the worst-off among those.

              Reply ↓
      3. CA

        https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2024/October/weo-report?c=922,&s=NGDP_RPCH,PPPGDP,PPPPC,NID_NGDP,NGSD_NGDP,PCPIPCH,GGXWDG_NGDP,BCA_NGDPD,&sy=2017&ey=2024&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1

        October 15, 2024

        Russia, 2024

        Real GDP, percent change ( 3.6)
        GDP, purchasing power parity ( 6,909) *
        GDP per capita, ppp ( 47,299)
        Investment, percent of GDP ( 25.0)
        Savings, percent of GDP ( 27.7)
        Inflation rate, percent change ( 7.9)
        General government gross debt, percent of GDP ( 19.9)
        Current account balance, percent of GDP ( 2.7)

        * Billions of ppp dollars

        Reply ↓
    2. Carolinian

      Ritter today the bottom line

      In short, if Keith Kellogg were to successfully implement his “plan” to cut the price of oil to $45/barrel, he would effectively destroy the U.S. oil economy.

      And if you destroy the U.S. oil economy, you destroy the U.S. economy.

      Russia can ride out $45/barrel oil far longer than the U.S. can.

      Increasingly all of Trump’s ideas–the tariffs, the “cleaning out,” the 24 hr peace–seem like Rube Goldberg ideas. He may be a a political “stable genius” but in all other areas a dummkopf?

      But one shouldn’t undersell that political accomplishment. Biden was far worse than a mere dummkopf.

      Reply ↓
      1. JP

        I think this is incorrect. As a generality the S&P 500 moves inversely to the price of oil as energy costs have a big impact on margins.

        And I don’t give Trump a lot of credit for original thinking. When he hears something that fits with his preconceived notions he simply co-ops it. Not that there were any deep thinkers in the Biden admin but Trump is determined to fire anyone with experience. Kinda like when Newt Gingrich fired all the technical advisors on capitol hill cus they didn’t support his agenda. I’m pretty sure congress hasn’t done anything not written by a lobbyist since.

        Reply ↓
      2. The Rev Kev

        Trump really needs to fire Kellog as the guy keeps on coming up with goofball plans that have no connection with the reality on the ground in the Ukraine. Some of the stupid pronouncements that Trump makes sounds like it comes from Kellog.

        Reply ↓
  5. Mikerw0

    There were two links I sort of expected today given the oft discussed themes on NC.

    The first is from Stephanie Kelton on using DeepSeek to build a macro model in all of 12 seconds that basically did what the Bank of Canada had staff do.

    https://stephaniekelton.substack.com/p/the-impact-of-25-tariffs-on-canadian

    The second is from Paul Krugman explaining why he left The NY Times, so much for legacy media.

    https://contrarian.substack.com/p/departing-the-new-york-times?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=email

    Reply ↓
    1. Mark Gisleson

      Thanks for these. The Krugman substack includes a link to a Columbia Journalism Review that is blocked. Here’s a link to the archive.ph copy.

      Most of the neoliberals I knew worshipped Krugman. I hope they all read his side of this and maybe start thinking a little harder about how the news is made.

      Reply ↓
  6. The Rev Kev

    “U.S. Air Force F-35 Filmed Crashing at Key Arctic Air Base”

    Missing from this article is video of this crash itself. Looks like it’s engine failed and it kinda fluttered down-

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cg0BkkDpb6Y (22 secs)

    Bit disturbing to read how many have struggled with the fighter’s interfaces and cockpit display sand are struggling to tap a tablet screen . After all the money that has been blow on this program, you would think that they could at least get that right.

    Reply ↓
    1. ilsm

      I was stationed at Eielson AFB, AK, about 26 miles south of Fairbanks in the mid 1970’s.

      While there we had the in early testing F-15 for “cold weather test”.

      When I was there the F-4 was the main interceptor and was deployed at sites around Ak. We had no fighters at Eielson!

      Today there are two fighter squadrons of F-35A (USAF model) and one interceptor squadron of F-16.

      The crash is with in the past 24 hours.

      I am also old enough to remember early F-16 crashes.

      Engine troubles on the newest, single engine aircraft are cheaper but risky.

      Reply ↓
    2. Ian

      If its like most of the software industry, they probably hired UI designers instead of usability analysts because they weren’t even aware of the difference.

      Reply ↓
  8. Zagonostra

    >Glut of New Houses for Sale in the South Is Bigger Even than during the Housing Bust. The Glut in the West Gets Close Wolf Richter

    Related to Wolf Richter article is what is happening in the condo market in Florida. I have Canadian relatives that are looking to sell condo’s that they have owned for over 30 years. I think the situation is only going to get worse. Between, real estate taxes, insurance, utilities, and upkeep, owning a home or condo is reaching, or has reached, levels where most people just can’t afford the payments.

    It’s costing them $20,000 a year just to have the property, between utilities and taxes and all the carrying costs of owning a property down here. They’re just not coming down as much as they want to because of the Canadian dollar,” he said.

    Lavine said he’ll be handling eight listings — all Canadian-owned — in the next few weeks, twice his typical load.

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/article/people-are-panicking-snowbirds-rush-to-sell-florida-homes-as-loonie-tanks/

    Reply ↓
    1. Michaelmas

      Zagonostra: I think the situation is only going to get worse. Between, real estate taxes, insurance, utilities, and upkeep, owning a home or condo is reaching, or has reached, levels where most people just can’t afford the payments.

      What can’t go on forever, won’t. The RE part of the FIRE-based neoliberal Ponzi that many Western nations have run had to hit its limits one day. That day is arriving.

      (Of course, in one sense it hit in 2008 and the extend-and-pretend only extended the Ponzi.)

      Reply ↓
    2. albrt

      This anecdote seems more significant to me than Richter’s story. New home sales are less than 10% of total home sales, so a small shift in the percentage of people who want to move live in a remote, spec-built sprawl development could have a big effect on the industry. Most of the people I know who moved into new houses in the last ten years or so had a house built on property they owned, which is how they do things in the rural midwest.

      If snow-birding is no longer a viable option for most people, that will have a big effect on overall values here in Phoenix.

      Reply ↓
  9. Wukchumni

    From the Middle Kingdom
    Silicon sweethearts, now downloading
    A competitor eyes Sam Altman
    Free software, here we go

    ¡AI, ay, ay, ay!
    Oh, oh, oh, oh!

    Sulk and don’t cry
    Because sulking makes them happy
    Silicon sweethearts, the rules have changed

    Oh, oh, oh, oh!
    ¡AI, ay, ay, ay!

    Sulk and don’t cry
    Because sulking makes them happy
    Silicon sweethearts, adios ChatGPT

    Oh, oh, oh, oh!
    ¡AI, ay, ay, ay!

    Goodbye

    MARIACHI NUEVO TECALITLÁN / CIELITO LINDO

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHeHOb3E-2g

    Reply ↓
  10. The Rev Kev

    “Trump White House Confirms that Drones Over New Jersey were Approved by FAA’

    So, wait. People were getting in a panic about all these drones flying over the east coast, the Chinese were accused of being behind it with ‘mother ships’ and nobody knew who was really behind them. But the Biden White House had authorized them, had cleared their flights with the FAA, but let people be gaslit by them instead on just announcing during a briefing that they were theirs. Biden was evil man, evil. What is worse is that the main stream media must have know through their contacts who was behind those drones but just went along with the Biden White House gas lighting.

    Reply ↓
    1. Zagonostra

      Remember last year the company OceanGate’s “tourist submergible” that had “disappeared?” For weeks the media breathlessly covered non-stop. The Biden administration knew it had imploded right from the get go, but chose not to reveal it, same pattern. Mass distraction, deflection, subterfuge, and the use of MSM for psychological control.

      Reply ↓
    2. Ken Murphy

      Unanswered questions for me:
      -Who was authorized?
      -What research was authorized?
      -When were these flights authorized?
      -Where are the authorization records?
      -Why was public ignorance deemed the policy?
      -How much government money went into this?

      You know, Journalism 101 stuff

      Reply ↓
      1. mrsyk

        I’d like to know how the authorization took place as at this point in time JB was the featured vegetable du jour.

        Reply ↓
        1. Stephen V

          Thank you mrsyk. I’ve been putting “Biden” in quotes in my head for years.
          Maybe more “keeping it real” Congressional hearings are on tap!

          Reply ↓
    3. LY

      FAA drone approvals rarely reach the level of the White House. I always thought it was the right hand not knowing what the left had was doing. Lack of communication and follow-up is on brand for the previous administrations, as we saw in East Palestine and after Hurricane Helene.

      I know of various firms, including startups, doing drones in NJ and Long Island. New Jersey happens to have friendlier regulations for drones, so the flight testing occurs there.

      Reply ↓
      1. Wukchumni

        Isn’t it obvious in retrospect that Genocide Joe sent all those drones in search of the hard drive on Hunter’s laptop, thought the be in the vicinity of Grovers Mill.

        Reply ↓
        1. Expat2uruguay

          You know who lives in New Jersey and had flights over his house? Matt Taibbi.

          One theory I heard on America This Week was that the drones were looking for a possible bomb that contained nuclear material. Something like this would explain why the government would deny knowing anything about the drones. Perhaps they weren’t gaslighting, but wanted to avoid panic.

          Reply ↓
    4. jefemt

      One might think that any cub reporter or anyone with a pane and/or pilot’s license could have gone to the FAA and/or airports in the area to see precisely what was / and was not being allowed, what warnings, proscriptions, advisories etc. I must admit egg on face for not really paying attention of late.

      ‘Information age’, and with ironies like A I– it appears that we have a severe shortage of straight up objective factual information. No confidence in source(s). At least that’s my cynical view….

      Irony of ironies, Trump discloses the Truth, after scores of thousands of lies, I am to believe …. what?

      Reply ↓
    5. Es s Ce Tera

      Perhaps the Biden WH was hoping some overly patriotic civ attempting to down one of the drones would hit a passenger plane, creating the pretext they need – an invasion of Poland or Pearl Harbor moment.

      Reply ↓
    6. jhallc

      Where was Mayor Pete and the Dept. of Transportation, which oversees the FAA, while all this was going on? Surely he could have weighed in. I’m guessing he was busy packing up his family to move to Michigan.

      Reply ↓
  11. Keith in Modesto

    The article on CNN titled “How the Mafia is weaponizing wildfires” is behind a paywall. Can anyone give a short one or two sentence summary of what it claims, please? Thank you!

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      Not firewalled here in Oz oddly enough. Here is the guts of it-

      ‘The Mafia’s use of fires tends to have two main aims: power and profit.

      Fire is money, Nazzaro told CNN. It creates an emergency that has to be solved and profits for the companies that step in. There are contracts for firefighting, clean-up operations and rebuilding. The Mafia is a multilayered criminal enterprise, he said, that goes “from the labor force that sets the fire to the concession to build on burned land.”

      There is also evidence Mafia organizations may be using fire to procure land to broker deals for solar and wind infrastructure, with the hope of tapping into clean-energy transition funds, Pearson said.’

      Reply ↓
      1. Keith in Modesto

        Thank you Rev Kev. I wonder what evidence they presented that the Mafia is *actually* involved or if it’s just conjecture on how the Mafia would benefit if it were involved.

        Reply ↓
        1. The Rev Kev

          According to that article, most of these fires seem to be happening on land heavily under the influence of the mafia aka-

          ‘But even when the Mafia is not directly responsible, it’s unimaginable anyone would deliberately start a fire in Mafia-controlled territory without its permission’

          Can you imagine? Somebody comes to you and asks if you would like to earn some money by setting off a fire and by the way, a mafia Don controls that land. Yeah, nah!

          Reply ↓
        2. Wukchumni

          I watched the Fire Industrial Complex in action here during the 14,500 acre Coffee Pot Fire that ended up costing around $60 million.

          It was a lightning strike conflagration just inside Sequoia NP in an area last burned during the Rutherford B. Hayes administration, and to keep the money flowing did a number of prescribed burns in utterly remote Sequoia groves nowhere near the action, crisis = opportunity.

          The local heavy equipment guy ain’t no mafioso, but at $10k a day on his D-9 cutting fire line, certainly that would make the made men envious.

          https://www.ilovetrees.net/coffee-pot-fire-deception/

          Reply ↓
        3. Daniil Adamov

          Not paywalled in Russia either. They admit there is no evidence.

          A researcher insists the Mafia must be involved in Italian wildfires. Some others concur, arguing that even if they’re not starting fires themselves, surely no one would do this in Mafia territory without their permission (unless, of course, those are enemies of the Mafia, but I think that probably means other organised crime groups in this case). An official (deputy prosecutor in the Prosecutors Office of Palermo) says there’s no evidence of Mafia involvement, but doesn’t flat out deny the possibility either.

          Reply ↓
        2. Expat2uruguay

          Wow, that sounds great! California has a huge problem with affordable housing and if you listen to the video it’s not just apartments it’s also duplexes, so stuff people can afford to own. I live here in Uruguay it’s a much denser City that supports Mass transportation, small businesses in the neighborhood, and strong communities. So it’s really great to hear this!

          Haters got to hate? If you keep doing things the same way you’ve always done them, with residential sprawl, you’re going to keep having the same problems you’re having.

          Reply ↓
      3. MicaT

        Do they give any actual evidence of locations where this has been done?

        Fires being started in rural areas has happened for ever as it is a good income for local heavy equipment operators.

        Large scale solar is almost always on flat land with little vegetation, of which clearing with out fire isn’t a Problem.
        Wind doesn’t take much land so you don’t need a fire to make that possible either.
        Houses, again I’d like to see some evidence of a subdivision going in after a fire on land that isn’t zoned for it.

        Reply ↓
      1. lyman alpha blob

        I’ve never had a CNN article paywalled before either, but this one was this morning. An act of desperation by CNN due to falling readership/ratings?

        Reply ↓
        1. Screwball

          It’s for subscribers only is what I get when checking just now.

          Falling readership/ratings? One has to think so.

          I’ll go play my tiny violin.

          Reply ↓
        2. Darthbobber

          Right now it’s an erratic occasional paywall. The subscribers only content is self-explanatory, but there’s also the periodic “you’ve reached your limit of free content ” No place do they specify a number of articles or a time frame, and it really seems almost random.

          Reply ↓
    4. jhallc

      I’m just spit-balling here but, on the east coast the mafia has long been connected to landfill operations both for trash and demolition debris. There is some serious money that will be made in the hauling and disposal of the debris from the fires. Also capped landfills provide a perfect place for solar installations.

      Reply ↓
  12. Wukchumni

    US Solar Boom Continues, But It’s Offset By Rising Power Use ars technica
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Drove by the Ivanpah solar array the other day on the Cali/Nev border, and it was almost sinister looking, in my 75 mph glimpse I imagined a modern gulag and in lieu of ice surrounding all around, instead death rays emanated from the 3 ‘guard towers’ along the Primm rose path.

    Turns out it was a money gulag, game over soon.

    LAS VEGAS (KSNV) — Two units at the massive solar power plant near Primm, Nevada will shut down in the coming years as a deal with a California utility winds down.

    NRG Energy and Pacific Gas and Electric Company, or PG&E, announced they finalized negotiations to terminate two long-term purchase power agreements from Ivanpah Solar Power Plant.

    Ivanpah Solar is a 386-megawatt concentrating solar power plant with three units that cover 3,500 acres on the California side of the Mojave Desert.

    Concentrating solar uses mirrors on the ground to track the sun and direct its rays to a receiver at the top of a tower. Water is piped to the top of the tower and runs through a heat exchanger, absorbing heat from the sun and turning into steam to turn generation turbines.

    Reply ↓
    2. MicaT

      Solar boom is quite relative.
      China last 2 yrs has installed about 250 gw per year.
      Their 10 yr goal of about 1.2 tw was reached in 4 yrs.
      The US did about 40gw last year.

      Reply ↓
      1. CA

        “China last 2 yrs has installed about 250 gw per year…”

        https://english.news.cn/20250128/fd3207e5de654a8ea6bf17ee8728377a/c.html

        January 28, 2025

        Renewable energy accounts for 56 pct of China’s total installed capacity

        BEIJING — The newly installed capacity of renewable energy in 2024 accounted for 86 percent of China’s total newly installed power capacity, while the cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy made up a record high of 56 percent of the nation’s total, according to new data from the National Energy Administration (NEA).

        The NEA data released Monday showed that China’s renewable energy sector added a new installed capacity of 373 million kilowatts in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23 percent. Hydropower and wind power contributed 13.78 million kilowatts and 79.82 million kilowatts, respectively, while solar power and biomass power increased by 278 million kilowatts and 1.85 million kilowatts.

        By the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of the country’s renewable energy reached 1.889 billion kilowatts, a 25 percent increase from the previous year. Hydropower accounted for 436 million kilowatts, wind power for 521 million kilowatts, solar power for 887 million kilowatts, and biomass power for 46 million kilowatts.

        Last year was the second year that China’s cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy power generation has exceeded 50 percent of the country’s total installed capacity. By the end of 2023, the renewable energy power generation capacity in China surpassed half of the total installed capacity for the first time in history…

        Reply ↓
          1. Darthbobber

            Birthplace of Eduardo Galeano, whose “Open Veins of Latin America” was among the books that radically altered my perception of how things were.

            Reply ↓
  13. Zagonostra

    >Late Stage Social Capitalism Matthew Eric Bassett

    Life in the West in the 21st Century could be characterized by a decline in friendship, a rise in isolation, and a crisis of mental health…Simply put, I don’t buy economic explanations. Rather I want to use the economic arguments differently; I want to talk about how we’ve been spending our fiat money to buy solutions for this loneliness…I’m not actually a Marxist, I think that human psychology influences economic production just as much as the other way around.

    I’m glad he mentioned Robert D. Putnam, I was not aware of Putnam’s Netflix documentary. I think that although economic explanations don’t go the whole way in explaining “isolation,” they certainly contribute. An argument could be made that technology could bring people together if they had economic means and free time. I know several people that met their spouse on line and post social events/gatherings.

    Reply ↓
    1. GramSci

      When this topic comes up, I always cite Garrison Keillor’s diagnosis of Lake Woebegone, “All the good students left town”, and I blame the Interstate Highway System.

      Of course everything is multicausal, and I’m not exactly Freudian, but we put roots down in childhood, and only rootless grifters are immune to loneliness when those roots are torn up.

      Reply ↓
  14. Safety First

    “Talk loudly in the store about how you are moving all your prescriptions to Walgreens as you get the staffer to open the cabinets. ”

    As I’d recently found out the hard way, my new insurance carrier, Health First, does not cover prescriptions at Walgreens. CVS only. With a copay, natch.

    Fortunately, we weren’t talking huge sums of money – I can pay for the odd $20 bottle of medicine out of pocket, especially when the copay is $6 in any event – and I happen to live within walking distance of both. Still. A little too close to the bone there, as suggestions go…

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith Post author

      You don’t have to DO it, you just have to SAY it to give the poor harassed staffer some more grist to tell management! This is just in the pilot phase, so many loudly complaining customers might stop it.

      Reply ↓
  15. Wukchumni

    Trump’s ‘move fast and break people’ campaign can only lead to consternation, and they had to know that it would occur.

    What’s the upside for the administration?

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      The MAGA base must have been thrilled when they heard that Trump was going to shovel $500 billion to digital infrastructure for the benefit of Silicon Valley oligarchs instead of $500 billion for real world infrastructure like repairing roads, bridges, dams, electricity and water grids. Doing so would have locked in a Republican win for 2028 for sure.

      Reply ↓
    2. ChrisFromGA

      Quick wins, similar to a “shock and awe” style military campaign. Or perhaps a better analogy would be a prizefighter coming out of the corner in the 1st round throwing haymakers, hoping to score an early KO.

      The Donkeys seem punch drunk, unable to muster a counter-jab or a right cross.

      Of course, we know this isn’t sustainable over four years. Biggest issue I see is that Trump is “kicking puppies” – picking fights with weaklings like illegals, federal remote workers, etc. You cannot balance the budget on the back of discretionary non-defense spending in the agencies like Commerce, HUD, and NASA.

      You have to cut defense spending. They won’t take on that big, bad bully.

      Reply ↓
          1. Wukchumni

            (slips a right hook to the solar plexus)

            The Sweet Science by Joe Liebling is one hellova look at boxing in the late 40’s into the early 60’s when Ali was Cassius.

            Sports Illustrated hailed it the greatest sports book of all time, high praise indeed.

            A favorite author of mine, another keeper of his is Telephone Booth Indian.

            Reply ↓
  16. Carla

    In response to the suggestion given with the link about CVS: “Talk loudly in the store about how you are moving all your prescriptions to Walgreens as you get the staffer to open the cabinets.” For at least many of us on Medicare, our Part D coverage determines where we can get our prescriptions filled. At least mine does. So I can’t switch to Walgreen’s.

    Reply ↓
    1. Wukchumni

      I bring a metal cup to Home Depot to run up against the locked gates on oh so many items in the store, ostensibly to garner attention from a clerk to let me in, so I can buy a $8 container of chainsaw bar oil.

      For now they let me go on my merry way with the object of my desire, but you get the idea in the near future i’ll require an employee to escort said item to the checker in lieu of DIY.

      Reply ↓
        1. doug

          This is the way to go. Pickup. I go inside and get it, though. They are manned and take cash. Lowes has this as well. Let them find the stuff that is not where the computer thinks it is.
          Totally agree.

          Reply ↓
            1. Wukchumni

              A souped-up circa 1984 BEST Products store where you order it and they bring it out, allowing only for employee shoplifting-which can be policed much easier than the public lifting stuff.

              Reply ↓
        2. Wukchumni

          My buddy does that at Wal*Mart, but for yours truly, shopping is what I did for a living (similar to that bean buyer for Hills Brothers coffee) and it gets me out with the public, and allows for rants on this here contraption. there’s a story out there-just waiting for you to glimpse it.

          Take the drive home from Vegas the other day when on the outskirts of Barstow was a clump of what I first thought to be all barristers of the highest standing (at least 30 feet up) peddling their legal wares on 4 billboards, and when doing drive-by observing @ 75 mph one confused me as it read:

          ‘Peggy Sue’s
          Diner’

          And at first thought to myself, a waitress suing a customer, has it come to this!

          But alas no, it was an eatery,

          And just who is ‘Sweet James’, dude doesn’t look anything like Worthy.

          1989 Hills Brothers Coffee “Goes all over the world” TV Commercial

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5LB0sp3bvc

          Reply ↓
      3. Carolinian

        it’s the same system at Walmart. Perhaps the idea is that the key holder can look you over and see if you are the criminal type before surrendering the goods. They don’t walk you to the cash register.

        But in defense of the stores I don’t think they would be doing this if shoplifting wasn’t really a thing–contra the doubters who say the stores are scaremongering for some other purpose. At Walmart they have also become much more vigilant at the checkouts with fewer self checks open and extra staff watching the machines like a hawk. It could be the relationship between the Benton behemoth and their supposedly beloved customers is not as cozy as they thought.

        Reply ↓
        1. Wukchumni

          My Wal*Mart in Visalia locks up things mainly as a bulwark against the homeless, and although the makeup aisles aren’t locked up per se, you are in a prism of your own making from what i’ve seen. A rare place that has it’s own cash register in the store.

          ‘excuse me is that a concealer hidden in your purse?’

          Mens underware under locked glass-womens not.

          Headlamps & flashlights under locked glass

          And you can pick a tent off the shelves, but at my late mom’s Wal*Mart in Whittier, Ca. all tents were under locked glass.

          Reply ↓
          1. Carolinian

            If the trend continues the homeless may all wind up working at Walmart to man the many cash registers and serve as security guards. Social problem solved.

            Reply ↓
        2. lyman alpha blob

          RE: “…extra staff watching the machines…”

          This is the thing I can’t understand. Instead of just paying a cashier to ring everything up properly, they’ll pay people to stand around and watch as everyone rings themselves up, and bust those who miss an item. Plus all the IT people needed to keep the machines running. Sure seems like they are spending more money than they would have otherwise, just to keep labor from getting too uppity with the added bonus of treating every person as a potential criminal rather than a customer.

          Welcome to the carceral state.

          Reply ↓
          1. Carolinian

            Sadly it’s turning out that a lot of customers are criminals. There have even been commenters here that suggest cheating the self checkout machines as a way of sticking it to the man. Meanwhile, in my neighborhood, everyone is running through stop signs because nobody is stopping them. It’s the same thing in my opinion.

            If you don’t like Walmart don’t shop there. Despite the urban mythology there’s still competition in places like mine. Personally I like self service and am not keen on going back to the country store model my grandfather ran with the pickles in barrels.

            A few self checkouts were originally put in as a convenience for those who don’t like standing in line. Covid came along and Bezos with his “just walk out” store and WMT management had the bright idea of simply doing away with human cashiers and greatly expanding the automation. Many of the displaced were put pulling products for pkg lot pickup.

            The pickup seems to have caught on but the other clearly has not since lots of the human Walmart cashiers are back. As Yves says in another post today, it turns out robots are not the magic bullet management hoped and part of that is the stop sign effect. Reinventing the wheel is hard.

            Reply ↓
        3. earthling

          Turns out it takes a lot of people to staff and patrol a giant store selling millions of dollars worth of goods a day, not a skeleton staff squeezed down to the fewest possible manhours. Who knew? Oh, old time stores with helpful people in each department, as well as floorwalkers, knew.

          Reply ↓
          1. Carolinian

            My Walmart always had things like bullets under lock and key but it’s only in the last year or so have they started putting certain products–by no means all but certain pharma items or as Wuk says beauty products–behind plastic. I can’t believe they would be doing this unless people were stealing a lot of these particular products because the key system doesn’t work at all unless you are into standing there for fifteen minutes waiting for an employee.

            Seems like a real world phenomenon in my experience.

            Reply ↓
              1. Carolinian

                I’m not trying to argue a point–just trying to relate my personal experience. Nowhere in that CNN article does the word Walmart appear. They say the average rate hasn’t changed but that doesn’t necessarily apply to stores with a poor and even desperate clientele. As for the store I go to, not only do I see the implied conclusion (in my opinion) that theft has become a problem, but I’ve even witnessed obvious shoplifting. Yes it could be the employees themselves who are stealing off those now covered shelves but that has always been true. Something–at Walmart–has evidently changed.

                As for CVS, yes it’s reprehensible and Walmart is doing a bit of this too by now requiring phone numbers and names to use the store wifi (hooking you up via bluetooth to all kinds of spybottery). But you could even see that as a way to keep the poor and offline off their shelves in favor of better heeled customers.

                Reply ↓
              2. Felix

                Agree with Yves. My adult daughters had to buy many beauty items which were in locked cabinets twenty plus years ago. Not a new phenomenon, at least in the Hood.

                Reply ↓
    2. Yves Smith Post author

      YOU ARE MISSING THE POINT!

      This is to say loudly in front of the locked cabinets while the staffer is unlocking them. I NOWHERE said you had to follow through.

      This is to give the store employee something really bad to tell management about the app scheme.

      The store employee opening the cabinet is never from the pharmacy dept and has no idea who you are.

      Remember this is in the pilot phase and enough really pissed off complaints might stop it.

      Reply ↓
    1. ilsm

      Detailed engineering and experimentation planning…..(DEEP), DOE talk?

      In DoD we are supposed to keep the vendor from bending metal to do a system/equipment demonstration until they pass a preliminary design review (PDR) where integrated component design specs are evaluated with solid test data to reduce risk in building an experimental model.

      Once a vendor has a piece of hardware we get deep in sunk cost fallacy.

      DEEP seems shallow.

      That said micro reactors for remote military sites have been discussed for decades.

      The navy adds girth and tonnage to accommodate carbon fueled generators on new Aegis destroyers with newest radar set.

      But we should have had a decent PDR for F-35.

      System engineering is hard!

      Reply ↓
  18. The Rev Kev

    Re that bonus video from guurst. A translation of that text says-

    ‘An orphan named Peppa
    Thanks to the kind man who replaced her mother.’

    I thought that it might be a Joey – a baby Kangaroo – but it might be a baby Wallaby instead. Little fellow has a lot ahead of them just to grow up.

    Reply ↓
  19. Mikel

    Cloud Services Market Is ‘Not Working,’ Says UK Regulator – Gov.UK

    All will rue the day they gave up independent IT, servers, and storage in general for the rent charging middle man (thatalso can sell any secrets or co-opt them).
    The complete and total sell out of future generations…that will never be matched.

    Reply ↓
  20. timbers

    Wolf Richter – Southern housing glut worse than 2006 – “Since June 2024, new houses for sale in the South have surpassed the high of August 2006. In June, there were 293,000 new houses for sale (compared to 291,000 in August 2006). Since then, the inventory of new houses for sale has further ballooned and in October reached 304,000, and has remained in that range through December (301,000).” He goes on to note 76% increase in homes for sale since 2019. There are some other factors that may diminish his comparison to the 2006 real estate crash (or there about) and that 76% increase in listed inventory real estate since 2019, such as approximately 30-35 million increase in US population since 2006 which is more than a 10% rise, and pent up demand such as by those who really do want a house but can’t afford at current prices…unless wages really are so bad and falling it’s entirely account by that alone. A good portion of population growth is from lower wage groups like immigrants. Another factor is the Fed was spectacularly obedient to first term Trump orders to return to ZIRP and may well be again should Trump start barking for it. Also it’s possible the movement of people from California to rainier climates in the South may tick up a bit.

    Reply ↓
    1. jefemt

      …California to FL? Out of the fire and into the maelstrom and rising waters? Entirely plausible!
      Homo ‘sapiens’ indeed

      Reply ↓
      2. timbers

        In fact, wouldn’t be surprised that if he gave figures on Texas and Florida, the rest of the South would look normalish and not match his headline. Might be wrong about that, however.

        Reply ↓
        1. Expat2uruguay

          As a 30-year Californian that relocated to the coastal city of Montevideo, the humidity is really difficult to adjust to, at least at my age. Right now the temperatures are in the 80s but it feels really really hot!!

          I was born and raised in Central Florida and I don’t remember the humidity being a problem when I was young. But either the 60 years of aging or just the 30 years in Sacramento has made it much more difficult to tolerate.

          Don’t get me started about humid cold. We have people come here from Minnesota and Canada who can’t believe how cold it is in the winter, and it never snows and almost never freezes!!! But the cold just seeps into your house and into your bones and the wind blows as if straight from Antarctica!

          Reply ↓
    2. nyleta

      Sooner or later they will have to stop building if they can’t sell them, housing units under construction are already down about 15% but construction jobs apparently are holding up for now. Most US recessions start when construction jobs start to go and the US health system which is a large part of the US economy is being politically purged right now and in a state of frozen shock.

      Couple this with the horrendous trade figures out today and the US doesn’t look particularly investable at the moment.

      Reply ↓
  21. Wukchumni

    Trump offering Federal employees 7 months of severance pay if they do the buyout right away is such a mind {family-blog} as 7 is considered a lucky number, if you get 4 of them lined up on a slot machine that will get you a….

    Jackpot!

    Reply ↓
    1. jefemt

      With work and jobs going away, an economy on pause and holding its breath, why would anyone in their right or left mind take that money and run? Quiet quit, go full-on dead-wood, draw pay, add to retirement plan du jour. As my military Dad used to say about much of his time in service, “just keep ‘f*#king the dog until the eagle sh*ts”.

      Big middle finger to Trump and double down into Trumpian “all-about me” behavior. Film at 11?

      Reply ↓
    2. Carolinian

      The way I heard it he said Fed employees could return to the office or be fired with 8 months severance or none for political appointees. I asked about my friend’s daughter and turns out she now works for the Interior Dept rather than the Forest Service and has no local office to return to.

      These untargeted grape shot blasts at the bureaucracy don’t seem very helpful but perhaps another “dominance display” as was seen with Colombia. The Jane Goodall style analysis may become the norm. The employee I know, at least, is a diligent worker. Others are no doubt sitting at home watching The View.

      Reply ↓
      1. Yves Smith Post author

        This is the Trump team lying.

        It is incredibly hard to fire Federal employees.

        There is no budgetary authorization for severance, so they won’t get anything beyond unused vacation days.

        Reply ↓
        1. ilsm

          Over 20 years ago, I took early retirement from federal civil service in lieu of taking a paid move to follow my job which was moving.

          Positions can be eliminated forcing employee to move or exercise RIF rights.

          IIRC DoD has not had a large RIF since the 1960’s.

          Manpower engineering is soft in federal government and RIF can be a tool. Slots are often hard to justify and detail reviews may be decades old.

          Reply ↓
      2. ChrisFromGA

        I think we’ll know if Trump is serious about cutting the budget when we get closer to March 15. That is when the current CR funding the government runs out. If Trump is serious, he’ll demand some funding for severance in the next series of appropriations, or else he can simply tell Mike Johnson to put the government into a shutdown or better yet, a flat CR at last year’s spending levels through the rest of FY2025.

        The problem is Mike Johnson is decidedly not the Alpha Chimp. He’s more of an omega or sigma.
        My prediction is that DOGE collapses under the weight of reality by spring in the NE. There is a more dominant chimp out there ready to eat Mikey’s face off and show the pack who’s boss.

        Reply ↓
        1. converger

          More likely that Trump engineers a forced adjournment and suspends that pesky Congress indefinitely, before March 15th. Problem solved!

          Reply ↓
      3. jhallc

        Civil service and union rules at the state level where I worked made it very difficult to get rid of long term employees. Usually it was added pension incentives for early retirement that got those folks to make an exit. For most other civil service folks it was a last in, first out situation that took place during a reduction in force. Those that knew they where likely to get the axe took any incentive they where offered. Administrative folks without civil service protection could be fired at any point. However, many of those administrators held old civil service titles that they could move back into as a fallback position.

        Reply ↓
  22. Mikel

    Virtually no Greenlanders want to join the US, new poll finds – EurActiv

    I guess they checked out Killers of the Flower Moon or saw the proposed budget cuts in the USA (not indigenous friendly).
    Although some of the things like the article about the parenting questionnaire for Greenlanders was also eyebrow-raising.

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      Just to show that there were no hard feelings about the results of that poll, the Greenlanders said-

      ‘No offense guys but joining the American system? Your education system sucks, your healthcare system sucks even worse even though Trump tries to tell us how great it is, your politicians are dysfunctional, your environmental credentials are nonexistent and we don’t want the US military running around here like it was Okinawa. But hey, you are always welcome to come visit us. Best not in winter time though.’

      Reply ↓
  23. t

    Quote from the linked Twitter Purge article from Ken – Musk says if you don’t have to put back 10% of what cut after the purge, then you didn’t cut deeply enough. Sounds super efficient and well planned.

    Did Twitter ever get the prime advertisers back?

    Reply ↓
  24. .Tom

    > Virtually no Greenlanders want to join the US, new poll finds EurActiv

    If I were a Greenlander I would open negotiations like that too. If you want it you’re going to have to pay.

    Reply ↓
  25. Gov employee

    That offer to buyout federal employees is making me think it’s starting to dawn on the DOGE crowd how expensive their return to office policies will be. For any current remote workers who live further than 50 miles from the nearest possible office they could return to will need to be paid relocation costs. At my agency those costs are around 50K per person. Where’s that money going to come from?

    Reply ↓
    1. Another Fed

      The plan is probably to push those remote employees into the cheapest compliant office location that’s less than 50 miles from their current home. They appear too cheap to even consider paying higher locality pay for pushing people back to the logical home office location.

      Where finding more office space is a challenge I see Feds either getting forced out in some other way or given exemptions to continue remote work.

      In any case, the back to office push was nakedly phrased as a way to push people out, so it’s entirely possible that it’ll be retracted entirely once he gets enough attrition for a “win”.

      I am seriously considering the buyout as I’ve been contemplating leaving anyways and I suspect Trump will make federal service as nasty and brutish as possible going forward. However, the offer is so poorly written with an intentionally short fuse (right before we get to see our agency plans for return to office) and doesn’t address the existing limitations on administrative leave time and buyouts. So there’s a high probability of getting burned.

      Still, very tempting to just take the money and run.

      Reply ↓
  26. The Rev Kev

    “The ‘Iron Dome for America’ Boondoggle’

    Now this is just plain nuts. Israel has Iron Dome but it is a pocket size country so no comparison. Even then Iranian missiles got though to hit their targets so we can only imagine what Russian or Chinese missiles would have done. But the US has a huge border and I don’t think that there are the physical resources to do so. The money is not a problem as you just have the printers go brrrrr but we are talking about physical resources and people. And then it struck me. Star Wars! This is just an 21st century updating of Ronnie Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative aka the Star Wars program. They couldn’t make it work then and they won’t be able to do so now. But hey, at least the MIC will make bank-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Defense_Initiative

    Reply ↓
    1. NotTimothyGeithner

      Bear Patrol

      Classic Simpsons still addresses every topic, but this is a non-measurable “defense initiative” that doesn’t have to deal with clear failures. After all, I don’t see Houthi missiles blowing up the local Mega Church!

      They even updated the branding. If the new Star Wars movies were more well received, it would still be Star Wars.

      Reply ↓
    2. Carolinian

      Trump is not making it easy for those of us who might be inclined to defend him.

      In other news Netanyahu to visit White House. So not all foreign criminals are being deported?

      Alastair Crooke had some inside dope on Bibi and said he was attacked by his also rabid son and the son told to hie off to Miami. Mom went too. And Crooke says the Israeli despot not in the best of health and just had an operation to put in a pacemaker.

      Reply ↓
    3. ilsm

      Wait!

      You think any of what Star Wars aka national missile defense stuff works?

      40 odd years expenditure’s and we gat Patriot, and Boeing ICBM size interceptor missiles with failed kill vehicle….

      Genocide in Gaza bc their bottle rockets get thru…

      Reply ↓
      1. Expat2uruguay

        Wouldn’t a Reagan-style Star wars type system be vulnerable to that thing where all the satellites get wiped out in a chain reaction of debris?

        Reply ↓
  27. Phariah

    The estimation for the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 population given by NewRulesGeopolitics/UN are a joke. Ukraine’s population figure of 41m includes Crimea. The refugee numbers given in the link are from dec. 2022, according to Russia, some 6 million ukrainian refuges must have entered it by now https://www.rt.com/russia/573737-ukraine-conflict-refugees-russia/ , add to this the over 4 million living in the 4 oblasts that were added to Russia, and the over 7 million who went to the EU or elsewhere, add also the over 2 million from natural decline or killed in the war, and you will see Ukraine’s population must now be below 20 million (Dmitri Kovalevich once claimed 18m) and not 33 million.

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      Good call that as I have been hearing of estimates of less than 20 million Ukrainians left now for a year or two. The Ukraine may never come back. I can see how it went though to get to this point-

      Biden: ‘Well I’m outta here, babe.’

      Zelensky: ‘So this is it?’

      Biden: ‘You knew what it was, babe.’

      Reply ↓
  28. Wukchumni

    I heard that you’re not on your own now
    So said DeepSeek
    You’re not alone now
    The market was wrong
    So were you
    What will you do?

    Are you seeing NVDA free-falling?
    Are your gotten gains not lost on me?
    Longing for half a trillion
    Oh Sam, Sam, you know where financial resources are
    Come around the Oval Office and talk awhile
    I need your guile
    You need a half a trillion
    Oh Sam, Sam, you know the plan

    And the WH door is open wide

    Come on inside
    Longing to see you
    Oh Sam, Sam, you know where I am
    I find the days hard to face now
    Empty rooms back at Mar-a-Largo
    There’s much too little space now

    And the Democrats go so slow
    I’m sure you know

    Wish I knew what to do
    It would be so nice seeing you
    And it might help you too
    Oh Sam, Sam, you know where I am
    Come around and talk awhile
    I need your guile

    You need a shoulder
    Oh Sam, Sam, you know where I am
    And the door is open wide

    Come on inside
    Longing to see you
    Oh Sam, Sam, you know where I am
    Oh Sam, you know where I am
    Oh Sam, ooh Sam
    You know, you know
    You know where I am

    Sam, by Olivia Newton-John

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFkQwO5OsCw

    Reply ↓
  31. t

    Apparently some tax credits are or may be at risk. The OMB isn’t sure. Senate Finance is steamed and being stonewalling.

    Good times. Good times.

    Reply ↓
  32. Es s Ce Tera

    re: Tucker Carlson claims Biden administration tried to ‘kill Putin’ Politico. Subhead notes the absence of evidence.

    This might be the source of Tucker Carlson’s claims:

    https://www.newsweek.com/2022/10/14/biden-thinks-non-nuclear-threats-will-stop-putin-his-military-doesnt-1747343.html

    On the other hand, the US has form for assassination attempts and is fond of extrajudicial killing, so it’s not crazy unreasonable to assume the US has actual plans which have received a green light.

    There were probably conditionals – if conditions XYZ are true then proceed, otherwise do not. But if conditions didn’t quite line up correctly but the plan has the green light, does that qualify as “tried to kill Putin”? I’m just theorizing as to why an obviously smart(ish) person like Tucker would drop such a bombshell, he won’t do this in a complete vacuum, where did it come from?

    Reply ↓
      2. AG

        >”But plausible and saying you know it happened are two very different things.”

        One reason I do not like TC. He does that all the time.
        I even feel bad doing that as an anonymous blog commenter. I do not earn millions with that attitude however. Unlike TC. At some point whatever is said becomes questionable. Is he actually aware of that? To point out Taibbi being “very much into detail” says … a lot.

        Reply ↓
  33. AG

    re: Germany BSW

    The attempt to undermine BSW via lawfare is going on.
    Two local MPs in Thuringia lost immunity and now there are investigations into corruption.

    Corruption allegations against BSW leaders Wolf and Schütz
    https://archive.is/btFGE

    “According to “dpa”, investigations have been ongoing for some time

    According to “dpa” information, the current investigations had already begun and have now become known through the necessary lifting of the two’s immunity. Wolf and Schütz were elected to the Thuringian state parliament as BSW representatives after the state election in autumn 2024, and are now members of the cabinet of the new Prime Minister Mario Voigt (CDU), who has forged a coalition of the CDU, BSW and SPD , as finance and digital and infrastructure ministers respectively “

    Reply ↓
  34. Es s Ce Tera

    re: Trump’s ‘Flood the Zone’ Strategy Leaves Opponents Gasping in Outrage New York Times.

    I don’t think the strategy actually needs to work. Team Trump has successfully created, with the help of the media, the impression of Trump at war with the government. This seems to be a necessary step for whatever is coming next and at a minimum it surely satisfies the MAGA base that he’s delivering or making a good effort to deliver on the drain the swamp promise. The epic tale to be told is of the good knight Trump doing battle, attempting to slay the dragon that is big government.

    Reply ↓
    1. BrianC - PDX

      Speaking of “government”. Often when I talk to people they rail that *government is the problem*.

      I like to point out that supposedly we are a representative republic, with government of, by and for the people. Setting aside we live under an Oligopoly now.

      Since “we the people” are supposedly the government, being citizens of said republic… I like to point out that when you hear politicians going on about *government being the problem*, you should go home and look in the mirror. Because they are talking about *you*. You are the problem, and they are going to make sure you are cut down to size.

      The reactions to this line of thought… can be interesting.

      Reply ↓
  35. Jason Boxman

    American Children’s Reading Skills Reach New Lows

    Recent reading declines have cut across lines of race and class. And while students at the top end of the academic distribution are performing similarly to students prepandemic, the drops remain pronounced for struggling students, despite a robust, bipartisan movement in recent years to improve foundational literacy skills.

    Can’t imagine why that is. (Snark) Better school districts may have upgraded ventilation. Kids from lower classes going to have parent or parents more likely to face exposure to COVID at work as well. Sickness and absence piled on top of economic disadvantage.

    Reply ↓
    1. AG

      Moon of Alabama posing the right questions with that news item:

      Halt Of USAID Exposes Malign Foreign Influence
      https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/01/halt-of-usaid-exposes-malign-foreign-influence.html#comments

      The dozens of ‘independent’ U.S. financed pro-war media outlets in Ukraine are just some of a total of 112 official USAID projects in Ukraine (machine translation):

      There are 112 projects in Ukraine The United States Agency for International Development (USAID), their funding reaches a total of $ 7 billion.

      Such data was provided by MP Maryan Zablotsky on his Facebook page.
      …
      In particular, over three years, $ 297 million was allocated for the following activities::

      Reply ↓
  41. JBird4049

    After hearing about Pelosi’s selling her Nvidia stock and buying Tempus AI before the news on DeepSeek came out, I would like to apologize for voting for this… person to be my senator. In my defense, the usual other “choice” in most Californian elections is a flaky Republican, AKA a libertarian of the American variety, or of some party that I’ve never heard of before.

    What an evil human being that seeks to profit from the suffering of others, suffering that she helped to create, but our entire society is controlled or at least influenced by such creatures. I could almost wish that there was a Hell for them to go to.

    Reply ↓
    1. neutrino23

      Nice try. Nancy Pelosi is in the House of Representatives, not the Senate.

      Also, I don’t see where selling NVIDIA was such a surprise. The news about DeepSeek has been all over the technical press for a while. It was surprising to me that it took Wall Street so long to catch on to this. I suspect the fact that the app for DeepSeek hit number one in downloads for iPhones and Android over the weekend caused the news to break through.

      Reply ↓
      1. NYMutza

        I’m surprised that Nancy didn’t short NVDA immediately after selling her stake. She must lack courage and seeks only easy victories.

        Reply ↓
  42. Chuck Teague

    re: Trump & Ukraine: The Coming Battle Over Conscription Antiwar.com (Kevin W)

    Before lowering the draft age, perhaps those Ukrainians that fled the country in 2022, and who are now of military age, should be repatriated. From the millions mentioned as having bailed, there should be at least a few brigades worth.

    – CT

    Reply ↓
  43. XXYY

    Trump doesn’t talk softly, but does he carry a big stick? Asia Times

    I’m not sure what the point of this piece is. Efforts by previous administrations to change problematic parts of the world failed, so why even try now? Politicians can’t be trusted to follow through on their campaign promises? US presidents are not all powerful when it comes to reshaping the world?

    I don’t think any of these theses are novel or profound. The overall tone seems to be merely defeatist.

    Reply ↓
    1. Expat2uruguay

      I was left with a similar feeling. I’m not sure why it was marked important.

      Usually when something’s marked important you can find more discussion of it in the comments, but that doesn’t seem to happen lately the way that it used to. Or maybe it’s just a reflection of others also not finding much remarkable about the article.

      Reply ↓

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