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Links 1/4/2025

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2025 Bug of the Year Nominees New Zealand Bug of the Year

Where the next financial crisis could emerge FT

Climate

Do Carbon Offsets Offset Carbon? American Economic Journal: Applied Economics

Canadian forests are more conducive to high-severity fires in recent decades Science

‘Mystery volcano’ that erupted and cooled Earth in 1831 has finally been identified CNN

Freighthopping Doomberg (PI).

Syndemics

5 years after it appeared, things we know and still don’t know about COVID PBS. 900 deaths a week. Pretty normal for a new tranche of lethality under Rule #2, well done all.

Covid surges across US after holidays amid low booster uptake Guardian

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Alterations in Cellular Gene Expression Due to Co-Infection With Kaposi’s Sarcoma-Associated Herpesvirus and SARS-CoV-2: Implications for Disease Severity Journal of Medical Virology. From the Abstract: “These data provide a molecular basis for understanding whether patients with pre-existing oncogenic herpesvirus infections are at increased risk for more severe COVID-19 or for developing virus-associated cancers even after full recovery from COVID-19.”

China?

Antony Blinken: ‘China has been trying to have it both ways’ Financial Times. Blinken: “We have reason to believe that China engaged Russia [on nuclear weapons] and said: ‘Don’t go there.'” If true, I propose, then, that China continue to have it both ways.

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What to expect from Chinese monetary policy in 2025 China Banking News

Holiday travel boom ignites China’s economic vibrancy CGTN

China’s tech giants vow to fix algorithm issues amid government crackdown South China Morning Post

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China’s overqualified youth taking jobs as drivers, labourers and film extras BBC

How Global South can resist US hegemony and its isolationism South China Morning Post

Myanmar

Q&A: Leader of Myanmar’s shadow government talks civil war strategy in 2025 Al Jazeera

Syraqistan

Israeli Settlers Pressured, the Cabinet Approved. Now Annexation Is Creeping Into West Bank’s Area B Haaretz

Yemen’s Houthis say they carried out 22 attacks against US, Israeli targets in a week Anadolu Agency

Israeli army bombs Damascus outskirts, seizes control of Syrian water sources The Cradle

European Disunion

Macron Appoints Zombie Government in France Brave New Europe

Europe readies for scattergun defence-spend bonanza FT

Dear Old Blighty

Scores of firefighters left with chronic health conditions years after tackling deadly Grenfell Tower fire Daily Mail. “Everything is like Grenfell.”

New Not-So-Cold War

Flagship Ukrainian brigade trained in France goes AWOL Telegraph

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Kremlin not willing to change its conditions for ending war – ISW Ukrainska Pravda

Supporting Ukraine Is in Trump’s Interest Project Syndicate

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‘We’re in the end game’: Why Kyiv’s blow to Russian gas threatens to divide Europe The Telegraph

Starved of Russian gas, industry shuts down in breakaway Moldovan region Reuters

Transnistria refuses to purchase gas from the West, awaits help from Russia Ukrainska Pravda

How the Kremlin is giving up Transnistria to regain control over Moldova European Pravda

Russia’s Cable-Cutting Could Threaten Europe’s Whole Energy Supply Foreign Policy

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An Ignored US Diplomat’s Warning on Russia Consortium News

The political dilemma facing Russian politicians The Spectator

Transcript of ‘Dialogue Works’ edition of 3 January Gilbert Doctorow

South of the Border

Panama reports sharp drop in irregular migration through Darien Gap Al Jazeera

Biden Administration

Biden blocks $14B sale of US Steel to Japanese firm Anadolu Agency. Commentary:

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The US’s Worst Fears of Chinese Hacking Are on Display in Guam Bloomberg

White House confirms hack of Treasury Department’s sanctions office Anadolu Agency

Trump Transition

A user’s manual to certifying the presidential election FOX

Only one spiteful group wants to see Trump sentenced before inauguration Andrew McCarthy, FOX. Merchan’s order:

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House approves new rules protecting Mike Johnson from ouster Axios

Kamala Harris botches one of her final acts as VP… and J.D. Vance can’t wipe the smile off his face Daily Mail

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Trump appoints (and rebukes) Morgan Ortagus as deputy Middle East envoy Axios

Greenland’s PM pushes for independence from Denmark amid Trump’s interest EuroNews. Commentary:

The Blob

Top 10 Think Tanks That Receive Funding Pentagon Contractors Think Tank Funding Tracker. Handy chart:

Spook Country

Las Vegas Bomber Story Takes An Alarming Turn Larry Johnson, Sonar 21. Commentary:

Driver of exploding Cybertruck left letters of anguish: ‘I needed to cleanse my mind’ LA Times

Suspect in Las Vegas Cybertruck explosion previously appeared on reality show Anadolu Agency. No kidding:

The tweet is worth reading in full.

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Incongruities (1):

Incongruities (2):

Incongruities (3):

What a shame Ryan Routh wasn’t around to help him.

Incongruities (4). Once again:

This whole thread is worth a read.

Zeitgeist Watch

Abby Martin of The Empire Files:

Digital Watch

Good to know:

Our Famously Free Press

Washington Post Cartoonist Ann Telnaes Quits After Bezos-Owned Paper Kills Trump Satire Piece The Wrap. Commentary:

Supply Chain

Cass acquires ocean, airfreight invoice audit platform Freight Waves. Commentary:

The Final Frontier

The other space control: who does what in the national security space enterprise Space News

Book Nook

Happy birthday (yesterday):

Class Warfare

Blaming Low Wages on Bad Schooling Is a Neoliberal Myth Jacobin

Park City Ski Patrol Goes on Strike Liftblog

Your life is not a story: why narrative thinking holds you back Psyche

Antidote du jour (Rhododendrites):

Not really an antidote, but fun:

I wouldn’t call them “tricks.” They’re methods; I was taught the one on the left.

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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229 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    “Think Tank Funding Tracker”

    Was listening to a The Duran video earlier when Alexander Mercouris made an interesting observation. He was saying that after observing Think Tanks the past decade that he has come to realize that they are actually part of the intelligence community. Certainly that would be true of the RAND Corporation but now I am wondering about the other ones now.

    Reply ↓
      1. ambrit

        I conceive of the Think Tanks as the General Staffs of the armies of the Oligarchs. The Fearless Leaders set the agendas and the Think Tanks work out how to implement those agendas. By disseminating the “plans” the Think Tanks work out, “consent” to the agendas is created in the general population.
        Instead of viewing Think Tanks as “thought leaders,” we should see them as “thought designers.”
        It’s Techno all the way down now.

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        1. dingusansich

          I like the general staff analogy, but color me skeptical about agenda setting by the Straussian gentlemen, a.k.a. leaders. That is the role of the wise as they ponder the globe from their RANDian mountaintops. The leaders shepherd the vulgar, while the wise shepherd the leaders. Of course St. Leo would think that, tenured in Chicago, and arrangements aren’t so pat or antiseptic IRL, but when talk turns to the deep state and its people in dark suits, it’s a likely spot to pin the tail that wags the dog, And who wags the tail that wags the tail, i.e., who buys the wise? As Lambert might say, ’tis a mystery.

          Reply ↓
          1. fjallstrom

            Reading Aaron Good, in the US political system it’s the oligarchs who calls the shots. Or at least I think that will be the conclusion, only got a third trough the book yet. It’s a good book, but a bit dense reading.

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      2. griffen

        Throwing a dart at the Think tank organizations and you can also land on a tangential nearby square on the Bingo card as played by intelligence officials and DC insiders ….

        See a former sitting VP had one before he successfully ran for the Presidency in 2020. Everyone jumps into the pool!

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penn_Biden_Center_for_Diplomacy_and_Global_Engagement#History

        Adding that hey a think tank, and a Presidential Library both involve some of the (allegedly so, I guess) best and brightest minds in our nation’s history. Opening a center to promote this that or the other, it may just be possible, yes even likely the American people forget a Presidential administration and it’s most colossal failures and unintentional gaffes.

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      3. Bsn

        Mike Benz goes into this a bit in various interviews. He states that (I don’t know the exact number) many people on the board of the Atlantic Council are X-CIA/FBI. Funny, just like employees of the NYT. No wonder they all say the same thing and push the same story.

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        1. ArvidMartensen

          Is there anyone in the US who doesn’t work for the Military and Spying Network (MSN)?

          Who isn’t either # designing a war or # starting a war or # participating in a war or # building weapons for the wars or # fomenting a colour revolution or # tweeting and writing and explaining why the Enemy Du Jour is evil and bankrupt and laughingly weak and scarily strong or # is briefcasing “defence” money to politicians or wannabes or biolab scientists or or or…….

          If there is someone, I think the media should find that person and interview them! Would be like interviewing an alien or communicating with dolphins. Ratings gold!

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      4. steppenwolf fetchit

        Does the intelligence community launch its own Narrative streams through these think tank fronts? Or does the intelligence community fund these think tanks because it likes the way they think? And does it like the way they think because they think the way they it likes? And it therefore gives them the money-megaphone to enable the catapulting of what the intelligence community finds to be very useful propaganda which it can plausibly deny because the think tanks think it up all on their own?

        Reply ↓
        1. jsn

          All of the above, I figure.

          And now they’re doing so much of it from so many compartmentalized power centers they can’t tell what the collective “themselves” are up to.

          The Deep State, never a coherent entity, can no longer sustain a coherent narrative!

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          1. Lambert Strether Post author

            > And now they’re doing so much of it from so many compartmentalized power centers they can’t tell what the collective “themselves” are up to. The Deep State, never a coherent entity, can no longer sustain a coherent narrative!

            Modulo the phrase “deep state” (the fact that it was never a coherent entity is one reason I refuse to use the phrase), this is pretty much where I am.

            If you think this through Constitutionally, it means that there is really no such thing as the Executive Branch. Like a horrid Norway Maple, the executive branch is seeding itself everywhere, and sending up little suckers (and poisoning the ground around it so no other plant grows).

            I think the phrase to look for is “partners,” and that “partners” is another way of saying “extra-constitutional or even extra-territorial relationship.” For examples, if these bombings had occurred in New York, can anyone doubt that our “partners’ in the Mossad would be involved?

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    2. rob

      I would say that not all think tanks are the same. Some have more heft than others, but they all seem to have a helping role, or a leading role.
      I have been unable to shake the conviction I have had for the last few decades, that think tanks are really just tools of the establishment.
      Look at the council on foreign relations membership roster, for the last 100 years.

      The the people who were the leaders, were the founders of the national security state. There have been dozens of cabinet level positions filled in both parties administrations,since WWII.
      Some presidents, supreme court, congress/senate… as well as the major media owners and voices, the big industrialists, their minions /lawyers, military brass,military suppliers,bankers, academics,etc.
      The story Carroll Quigley laid out in Tradgedy and Hope in @ 1961, showed that our national security state was borne by the people who were running the economic policies of the elites at the time.
      How does this not make sense?
      Since cecil rhodes, Stead and those who along with them created the british roundtable in 1891, and then the royal institute of international affairs in 1919, and the council on foreign relations in @1921, there have been people who have found a “community of interest”, in the anglo-american project of the 20th century.
      Just think of the power in the access to all of these people, and their business contacts, and their capital flows.
      the commercial interests are on top. the people who are the levers of power(presidents,congress, supreme court,etc.)are brought along, the people who disseminate culture(media,academics,advertising) are the tools to direct the masses. All the while the members of these groups have access to the minds/plans of other powerful/ informed/people. So they get the gravitas of proximity to power. They get to be snooty… and they love it.
      Those in the system, get the heads up on direction of the economy, because they collectively control so much.
      Decades go by, then the snooty don’t even know they are tools of the machines/institutions they created… and the money follows…. and now these think tanks are just self licking ice cream cones for the business elite who have an agenda…. And now we just call it “groupthink”…. and the neoliberal dynamic they created just operates along these worn psychological ruts, because to do something else isn’t allowed in their minds. The crimes will continue.
      Also, these think tanks seem to be aligned with certain syndicates. As is the case with the slew of Koch funded think tanks, who seem opposed to the old Morgan/ rockefeller syndicates related to the council on foreign relations whose business really did railroad Charles Koch and force him out of the US, back in the 1930’s , forcing him to go to the soviet union and build an oil infrastructure for Stalin. Where he made the families money…. and then came back here and funded groups like the john birch society to try and rip against the old think tanks like the council on foreign relations and rand and others…. only to copy the design of providing opinion to the masses and protecting fortunes in tax exempt foundations who control think tanks and emit the culture the masses think is their own creation.
      And nowadays, the creators are dead and the think tanks share members…. and its all just an elite vs everyone else…..but these zombies roam the earth. and here we are.

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      2. steppenwolf fetchit

        I remember reading some years ago that FDR disallowed any CFR members from serving in any position he was able to appoint people to or not. And that Truman allowed them all back in to whatever positions Truman had control over the filling of.

        But I can’t remember where/when I read that.

        Reply ↓
        1. rob

          FDR had plenty too.
          Even his uncle and member of the Delano family was a founding member of the CFR.
          I used to have lists, they were long. FDR, started his tenure with the attempted fascist coup of 1934, as outlined by smedley butler…. the cfr, had fascists,capitalists,socialists,communists,etc…. a foot in all camps. and he really did seem to have some monumental forces around him, and his ability to skirt their games shows his competence… the last time the US had a real leader. IMO
          But yeah, when truman came in, almost all the cabinet members were CFR members. Eisenhower was one and so was nixon,carter, ford, bush I, clinton .the brain trusts, the best and the brightest, etc… is the tail wagging the dog?… seems like it.

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          1. steppenwolf fetchit

            But was his uncle Delano serving in FDR’s Administration? If he was, then that would be a CFR person in FDR’s Administration. “In FDR’s ancestry” was not what I was addressing.

            But I read it years ago. I wonder if actual evidence exists which could be studied about the presence or not of CFR people in FDR’s administration.

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    3. William Beyer

      Try to follow the paths of Fiona Hill and Cliff Gaddy, co-authors of an acclaimed book on Putin, through Brookings and read Matthew Sweet’s 2018 book, “Operation Chaos” for context. You’ll get a headache.

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    4. timbers

      On the subject of Duran and interesting stuff, he recently gave a history of Russian state produced gas/energy. Briefly summed up, Yeltsin approved opening Russia to European private development of gas/oil and ending Gasprom, but it was never approved by Duma. Eventually Putin came along and Europe knew their dream was dead. Later, at some Euro court or trade officials “ruled” that the deal Yeltsin approved was valid and in effect, so Russia must honor it. National sovereignty be damned. Meanwhile, Europe focused on, with steadily growing intensity, to treat Gasprom as an illegal monopoly and terminate Russian energy production. They are still trying. It’s amazing how Western oligarchs to this day are still so bitter and consumed by hate that they don’t have their greedy hands on those $trillions$ of profits that they stole from Russia fair and square in the eighties. Russia, by virtue of being the wealthiest of all nations based on natural resources, yet still is a sovereign country beyond the reach of globalists, it enemy #1 in the minds of the Globalists. How dare she use her natural resources on her people’s education, social services, infrastructure, defense and general public betterment – instead of that wealth going directly into their own pockets! There is NO greater evil on earth than this abomination!

      Reply ↓
      1. Kouros

        I call it chasing the dragon. The 1990s were for western oligarchs extending their reach in Russia like the first heroin hit. Since the 2000 they are chasing it. Probably in 50 years, when they will be dead and their successors would not have that memory in their fibre, the tussle might subdue…

        Reply ↓
    5. Screwball

      If you go to that link there are 3 lists. Top one is foreign money to think tanks, then the next two are for our pentagon contractors and US government money to think tanks. If my math is correct, between the Pentagon and US gov is around 1.5 billion.

      Why do we need them and what a way to save 1.5 billion. Hey DOGE boys – start here.

      Reply ↓
    6. John k

      Not just them. Msm stenographers, too… the 4th estate isn’t, and hasn’t been, for decades. It’s amusing to see them waffle around when they haven’t got the memo yet.

      Reply ↓
  2. Ben Panga

    >@alon_mizrahi
    Laughs aside, I think the US doesn’t really know what it’s doing, and there’s a real chance a covert civil war is already being fought between different arms of the gigantic security apparatus. Or it could be the quiet stage of an actual war…

    ..It won’t surprise me one bit if a foreign power or some rogue department in some clandestine organization manages to drive the entire system crazy.

    I like this. Foreign power seems orders of magnitude less likely than domestic players though.

    I have been tending towards the “deep state internal war” theory for a while now. I think Palantir/part of CIA/(and who else? Mike Flynn and friends and..?) Vs Lockheed/Boeing/Air Force/(and who else?).

    Players unseen on both sides is a huge category and the whole thing is murkier than all hell.

    I suspect there’s both a money/power element and also a worldview schism element. The new guys seem awful big on tyranny for my liking. I think they’ve mentally ‘moved past democracy’.

    Reply ↓
    1. DJG, Reality Czar

      Ben Panga: And then there are these sentences in the Mizrahi twiXler: “And it’s a system of liars and deceivers with multiple sets of loyalties, many of who work to infiltrate and spy on their colleagues. It is too much to handle. The leaks must be enormous and constant. … By creating this huge labyrinth of agencies, activities, and operations, the US has not only created a mess for itself, it’s become very vulnerable.”

      This is like something out of a novel by Thomas Pynchon. I am thinking of Gravity’s Rainbow as well as The Crying of Lot 49.

      What has happened is that complexity has become an end in itself. Now complexity is destroying things. We shrugged at symptoms like impenetrable homepages, unreadable EULAs (user agreements), and the software subscription model. What now remains in the rubble of neoliberalism and cyber-greed seems to be salvation through faith alone, the incredible self-destructing second amendment, twenty-four-hour banking, “warriors,” and freedom fries.

      The two notes from Levelsburger are remarkable for their messy, middle-class politics. I’m not criticizing those politics. Some people here in the comments section, as well as Yves Smith and Lambert Strether, have also pointed out that Saint Luigi the Avenger’s “manifesto” contains politics that are self-contradictory, lack class consciousness, and arise from someone who was previously comfortable. Levelsburger is in the same political category. Something is trying to make itself known in U.S. culture.

      I don’t even have a name for his politics. (Yet.) In the notes reproduced by Mel in her twiXler, Levelsburger protests Project Ukraine and wants an end to the war. He implies that he was involved in war crimes — or at least serious, criminal incompetence in the military. He mentions the maldistribution of wealth. Yet the second page of the black-on-white letter is an invitation to a purge and coup d’état by the military.

      The white-on-black twiXt goes on about granitic propulsion, which is a “theory” endlessly stumbling in search of real-world application.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_gravity_control_propulsion_research

      Well-footnoted, in a very bizarre way, as if the writers of the entry are fighting among themselves.

      “A screaming comes across the sky”: opening of Gravity’s Rainbow

      Reply ↓
      1. mrsyk

        So, what have we learned….
        “Rally around the Trump, Musk, Kennedy, and ride this wave… seems to be at odds with blowing up a Tesla on the front steps of a Trump property.
        The white on black has no team red fan-speak.
        Fellow reader ilsm from yesterday, US veterans commit suicide every day!

        The most simple explanation is that our social thread and collective psychological wellbeing are in the same condition as our institutions, international standing, political theater, environmental reality, and existential forecast. The sad conclusion down this line of thought is that statements by suicide can only become more common.

        Reply ↓
        1. Mikel

          Just getting the various responses and anxiety in the masses is the psyop.

          It’s preferred over talking about economic inequality, healthcare, or lavor organizing.

          Reply ↓
      2. Vicky Cookies

        Thank you, DJG. It’s certainly not unheard of, and in fact it’s quite common, for people to have professional and technical competence and ideological incoherence, which is why my first avenue of exploration with regard to the ostensibly deceased would not be to assume that the authors of the two emails are not the same person. That said, one reading of the first, ideological/political email could see it as a misdirection, given the simplicity and contradictions therein.

        I think the idea of internecine struggle among the intelligence agencies is fascinating speculation; we know there are rivalries, and we know that there are differences in worldviews, but nothing concrete.

        It must be maddening to make it your business to control something that fundamentally cannot be controlled, like how people think, or a sprawling land full of hundreds of millions of people. For those smart, arrogant, compliant, and unethical enough to work for the alphabet boys, I think you’re right in identifying complexity as a complicating factor: running up against reality, the solution becomes a higher level of abstraction, a closer zoom-in to technical detail, or a reorganization with more layers of bureaucracy, but never a reassessment of initial approach.

        Reply ↓
        1. JP

          We don’t need concrete proof of rivalries. Anyone who has ever worked in middle management knows that it is all a territorial battle ground. Many compulsively work against their own or their enterprise’s best interests in order to secure their special territory. The cohesive forces of ordered society are balanced by the repulsive forces of the individual. That is our steady state.

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        2. DJG, Reality Czar

          Vicki Cookies: Thanks.

          to quote you:
          “identifying complexity as a complicating factor: running up against reality, the solution becomes a higher level of abstraction, a closer zoom-in to technical detail, or a reorganization with more layers of bureaucracy, but never a reassessment of initial approach.”

          Exactly. Yes. This is much better a diagnosis than I put it.

          I note an insightful comment from Mister Bugs below. You, Bugs, and I all are products of the Ultrametroplex of Chicago, Rockford, Monroe, Madison, Milwaukee, where the way to solve this problem would be: “So you’re seeing Putin under the bed? And you think that there’s a military solution to your problem? Here, have some cubes of aged cheddar. And a brandy, if you can handle it.”

          Peace — achieving peace truly isn’t that difficult, and it’s the only path, given the messes it takes to create these wars.

          Reply ↓
      3. Bugs

        Having some ex military and spooks in the family, I can attest that they are the first to tell you that some of X-Files is so close to what they’ve seen that it’s scary, oh and they are definitely paranoid, and they express both anti-corporate / anti 1% views mixed with a bit of Trumpism and occasionally “Bernie was robbed”. You see some of that on the twitter as well in the comments to blogs on various and sundry hobbies, coding, TV fan sites, etc. It’s a phenomenon.

        Considering how many former soldiers and intelligence people the country has running around now, I think we’re in for some strange times indeed.

        Reply ↓
        1. albrt

          Past wars have produced a demographic cohort of veterans within a relatively short time, many of whom were conscripts. We now have 20 years’ worth of self-selected militarists and the uniparty is looking to create even more. Very imperial.

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          1. jsn

            But because of its penchant for secrecy, and for proliferation of agencies and headcount, once real internal dissent takes root in parallel but disconnected silos, covert action starts eating it’s own tail, delusions of omnipotence consumed by Ouroboros.

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      4. eg

        The only Pynchon works I have read are The Crying of Lot 49 (in a 3rd year American Satire course back in 1984/85) and Vineland in the early ‘90s. I’m not sure I could handle something like Gravity’s Rainbow or V

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      5. Glen

        I wouldn’t have asked for RepoMan for Xmas if I had known I’d get stories just like it in the news!

        Oh well…

        It’s a good movie.

        Reply ↓
    2. pjay

      I also think there is a lot to this post. I’ve been using the Game of Thrones analogy for a long time now. It’s not “good guys” vs. “bad guys,” but various factions at the top competing for power with little concern for the majority of us. As you suggest, I also think there are somewhat different motives involved in terms of both “money/power” and “worldview.” This idea is not really new. It’s been expressed many ways over the years: “Yankees” vs. “Cowboys,” “Traders” vs. “Prussians,” “Globalists” vs. “Nationalists,” etc., though these dichotomies are themselves too simplistic, especially today. The sheer size, resources, and secrecy of the national security apparatus allows these struggles to occur out of view and almost completely beyond the reach of our sham electoral politics. Most of us are are just spectators of the competing puppet shows put on to keep us distracted.

      Reply ↓
      1. lambert strether

        “There in stately splendor, far above the squalid village below, they fight their petty battles over power and money.”

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        1. JP

          And down below willingly veiled in the analgesic of distraction they blindly blame their squalor on the mighty hand of fate.

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        2. ambrit

          Also reminds me of Poe’s “Masque of the Red State Death.”
          Prince Pompeo shuts up his masters and followers in a virtual castle, (a vampire’s castle?) imagining that they will be safe from the ravages of reality outside the bubble. Hilarity ensues.

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        3. rowlf

          Big Emil Demke, Hit Man (Garish Summit)

          Young Rodney Merchfield “Well I thought maybe you’d have a catalog I could look through”

          Demke “Of course they’re all over that rack there against the far wall. Simple pummelings are on the left and up to the prominent stuff there.”

          Young Rodney Merchfield “Okay”

          Demke “Just browse around I’ll be with you in a second.”

          Reply ↓
    4. hauntologism

      If I may blather a bit…

      There is no “US” that can know — just compartmentalized factions and individuals, both foreign and domestic, overlapping each other in overlapping spheres, all hurtling through, from and towards swirls of even more confusion, with no possibilty of a controlling intelligence.

      But I don’t think a central intelligence, even if it could exist, is capable of knowing. To paraphrase Haldane, the apparatus is not only more complex than anyone understands, it is more complex than anyone can understand.

      The question for me is can the apparatus be simultaneously purged and reformed under anything like an orderly process that avoids mass violence? My answer is almost certainly not.

      So then what? If not some variant on chem trails and/or foreign war, will it be collapse? At this point, the collapse of credibility in all institutions is so complete that any effort to slow or stop will only speed collapse.

      Superannuated liberals like Chris Hedges, who have been self-righteoulsy wrong about most things, may turn out to be right about one big thing, but for the wrong reason.

      In the event, it is likely that a Bible-wielding form of nationalism will prevail across most of North America. But this will be a consequence, not a cause, of collapse.

      Humans, being human, will move towards the strong horse of righteous belief and away from nihilistic bugmanism. And if this happens, it will happen to the sound of Dostoyevskian laughter.

      Reply ↓
      1. JP

        Too complex, too many moving parts, like the weather too difficult to predict for more then a few days even with a large computational model. Many of the moving parts totally obscured from other moving parts in real time. Obscured not by lack of sensors but lack of integration. This traditionally managed by human instinct but ineffective at this level of complexity and overload. Of course the intelligence apparatus thrives on obscurity

        The scary thing about quantum computing is the possibility of raising phony intelligence to actual intelligence. With enough access to real time information and an evolving computational model the only place humans will have to hide is beyond the reach of sensors. How does one build a firewall against quantum computation? Well that will be the goal for control of the beast.

        Unless the fabled singularity is achieved right out of the gate, it will be the battle of quantum computers building firewalls against each other. In such a futurescape the effect of bible-wielding nationalists or other tribal interests will be inconsequential.

        Reply ↓
        1. fjallstrom

          Quantum computers are still not practical, compared to ordinary computers, except in some very niche applications were it has been claimed that they outperform a regular supercomputer (but this is disputed).

          The only established connection between quantum mechanics and consciousness are that both are hard to understand. This does not make quantum closer to consciousness.

          Reply ↓
    5. Mikel

      Nah…it’s a bunch of typical psyop shit going on to distract people.

      How are any attacks on pleebs going to “drive the system crazy?” It would only upset a system that prioritized and cared about the lives of the masses in the first place.

      The ravings of a PTSD soldier to “wake up”?
      It’s sad about his experience, but he was late to the “wake up” party.

      Reply ↓
    6. danpaco

      Reading Alon’s tweet brought to mind the entropy of our current age, a system so complex no one person or group has the ability to manage it. Bringing this concept in to the security state system is an interesting twist. Competing ideas from competing groups attempting to try and simplify the existing systems complexity does create an amazing opportunity for an adversary to infiltrate. Maybe the mad rush towards AI in everything is the ruling classes last ditch effort to try to manage the complexity before it spins itself into oblivion.
      One can only hope.

      Reply ↓
      1. Kouros

        Nope, the system is not that complex and impenetrable. At the heart of this so called complexity is the unpredictability infused by various individual agents (humans made out of flesh and blood, with their own ideas, emotions, drives, and human links). Add to this the fact that the other side (US population at large, other polities) have a say, and act/react as well infusing their own ideas, aspirations, emotions, beliefs, etc…

        Reply ↓
    7. NotThePilot

      Just to add to the pile of everyone else agreeing with Alon, I think he’s spot on. And honestly, I think it’s been going on longer and on a wider field than he says. They are fundamentally different cultures with different value systems, and sometimes, I think they actively despise at least the stereotypes of each other.

      I haven’t heard anyone say so explicitly, but my impression of military people is that they’re very aware that, for at least most of my lifetime, they’ve been violently plugging holes in a dam left by the “brilliant plans” of other factions. And for the diplomatic corps in particular, I think some of the military people view them much like bronze-age warriors used to see palace eunuchs.

      For those that followed the Syrian war closely, by the end of the Obama admin, it was pretty clear the US was in at least a 3-way, arguably 4-way civil war by proxy. The military had pretty much consolidated around the YPG and SDF in the Northeast, the CIA seemed to be backing primarily Arab-aligned rebel groups out of Jordan, the State Dept. was largely all in on keeping Turkey happy, and the less expansionist parts of the elected government (Rand Paul, Tulsi Gabbard, etc.) were implicitly for switching support to the Baathist government.

      Another out-there theory I have is that after almost 25 years of being thrown against Islamist forces that just keep winning in the end, the military in particular is subtly Islamizing in ways. Not doctrinally or like they’re consciously converting en masse, but the values and mindset are definitely shifting away from where US civilians are at. Most warriors respect enemies that prove themselves as warriors, and especially if the other side keeps winning against the supposed odds, they start asking, “How do I get some of whatever ‘win’ those guys are tapped into?”

      I know it sounds crazy at first, but certain things make more sense if you consider that maybe a lot of people in the military apparatus are quietly taking the opposing side in a lot of current conflicts. For example, as bad as US capacity has been getting, do you really believe that landing pier in Gaza kept getting delayed because the Sea-Bees forgot how to build one? And that it just happened to “wash away” soon after the Israelis took advantage of it for a raid?

      Reply ↓
    8. Lambert Strether Post author

      > I think they’ve mentally ‘moved past democracy’.

      The “network state” tech bros are exceptionally nasty. I don’t care what they chat about in their cuddle puddles, but when they decide to take an active, public, even dominating role in public life, the cray cray becomes actively dangerous.

      Reply ↓
  3. The Rev Kev

    ‘Molly Crane-Newman
    @molcranenewman
    Justice Juan Merchan has DENIED Donald Trump’s motion to dismiss his hush-money indictment and vacate the guilty verdict and ordered him to appear for sentencing next Friday at 9:30 a.m. virtually or in person.’

    Supposing, just supposing, that when Trump appears next Friday that the judge sentences him to home detention for a month. Can you imagine? Inauguration day would be a hoot and a half. Trump is already sour on how all US flags will still be at half-mast due to Jimmy Carter’s passing and Biden won’t give a dispensation for that day but if he has to be sworn in at Mar-a-Lago instead of the Capital building it would become a real circus having to be done in Florida instead of DC-

    https://www.rt.com/news/610417-trump-inauguration-us-flags-carter/

    Reply ↓
  4. AG

    re: FT on higher arms spending (below piece was linked to that article)

    Denmark to revamp defence plan agreed just 8 months ago
    Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen admits April coalition deal will have to be changed
    18/12/24
    https://archive.is/Ovdi5

    Denmark will have to a rip up a five-year funding plan for defence only eight months after it was agreed, with the prime minister admitting her country will need to spend more because of growing European security risks.

    Reply ↓
  5. Mark Gisleson

    I had to stare at the Telnaes cartoon for quite a while before I finally got it. At first, second and thirtieth examinations I saw sketchily drawn folks like Bezos (I assume the others are also billionaires) and a dead Mickey Mouse. The billionaires are fawningly giving money to Trump while Mickey lays dead on the ground.

    Then I made myself read the truly loathesome TDS-driven comments and realized that Mickey wasn’t dead, he’s fully prostated himself and is worshipping Trump. The name of the planet this takes place on is not cited.

    It’s a dreadful cartoon that’s only funny if you think a video of Trump lying in a mud puddle would be funny. I think the billionaire closest to the steps is, in addition to making a kissy face, holding a lit lighter as if he’s at a Taylor Swift concert.

    ©opyright is absolutely one of my biggest issues. If there is even a microscopic difference between Congressional Democrats and Republicans (or the WaPost) on ©opyright, I have no clue what it is but then again I can’t tell the difference between a corpse and a supplicant, at least not when drawn by Telnaes.

    Reply ↓
    1. JohnA

      I only recognise Bezos of the various figures, but I thought the figure closest was holding out a lipstick not a bic lighter. Lipstick on a pig anyone? Who knows, Micky M looks dead rather than prostrate. Not the greatest caricaturist, to say the least.

      Reply ↓
    3. Erstwhile

      Not all cartoons need to be ‘funny.’ But hey, if you want to call a cartoon ‘dreadful,’ then it works for me. Mr. Fish, over at Scheerpost, draws some of the most interesting, and dreadful, cartoons I’ve ever seen.

      Reply ↓
      2. Mark Gisleson

        True, and I do have three of Mr Fish’s cartoons hanging on my walls. And no, I don’t understand all of them but I really like the ones I do ‘get.’

        Reply ↓
    4. griffen

      Not sure I conceive of the Disney corporation having bent the knee as it were, or if they did so I missed that outside of settling a defamation suit for labeling Donald J Trump incorrectly as a rapist of women or in this instance the woman in the middle 1990s. Is Trump really so much more terrible than that of a proven politician and a liar, Joe Biden, over these past 5 decades ? Or is Trump worse by distinction than say the 8 years of Bush43 and Armchair President Dick Cheney?

      No need to answer. Trump and his deplorable MAGA supporters know how and what the wind blows from DC and it smells richly of money and absolute BS. Joe Biden being a good and decent man is likewise very subjective and worth debating.

      And as for this cartoonist I’m just unfamiliar with her work and efforts so I just can’t add further comment without doing a bit more digging around.

      Reply ↓
    5. Carolinian

      Fergit Jake it’s the WaPo. When Bezos finally shuts them down they can all get Substacks or maybe jobs at the CIA. At least the NYT had the foresight to build a large monument to itself in midtown Manhattan that will be hard to repurpose.

      Reply ↓
    6. EGrise

      From what I understand, the billionaire making the kissy face is the South African oligarch who owns the LA Times, and I think he’s holding lipstick (not gonna pursue that any further).

      The tallest one is supposed to be Altman, the charlatan who runs OpenAI. Personally I would’ve gone with Tim Cook.

      Reply ↓
  6. SocalJimObjects

    Will January 20th be marred by a fleet of Tesla cars and Cybertrucks going suicidal near the White House? Would love to see Elon’s face when that happens.

    Reply ↓
  7. The Rev Kev

    “Supporting Ukraine Is in Trump’s Interest”

    As Admiral Akbar said – ‘It’s a trap!’ It’s more than that, it is a quagmire. No change that. In the next several money the smart money is saying that the Ukraine military will finally collapse and so it will be all over red rover. But this article is demanding that the only deal that Trump should accept is where the Ukraine basically wins. The only way that that is even remotely likely is where the US sends tens of thousands of it’s troops to fight the Russians in the Donbass. Either that or threaten Russia with nukes unless they stop their war. Either way risks WW3 but hey, destroying the planet on behalf of the Ukraine is OK…I guess. But the sight of Trump continuing to pump tens of billions of dollars to the Ukraine is not one that his MAGA base will ever accept. It was one of the reasons that they voted him in – to end it. But this article is saying that there should be an unending flow of money to the Ukraine and arm it to the gills because otherwise it would be bad for Trump. I wondered who the authors of this article are to come up with this delusion garbage and found this-

    ‘Michael Froman is President of the Council on Foreign Relations.’

    ‘Charles A. Kupchan, Professor of International Affairs at Georgetown University and Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, served on the National Security Council under Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.’

    Yep. Sounds about right.

    Reply ↓
      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        > a bloody threat

        Yes, one of the more lethal mercs in Richard Morgan’s Takeshi Kovacs trilogy has a habit of saying: “I’d advise against that” [gun pointed at mark’s head].

        Reply ↓
    2. Chris Cosmos

      Who are these people who write such lies? And why? They are soldiers in the crusade to establish the “new Rome.” Many of these dolts are true-believers who never let any fact get in the way of their ideology. This is a serious problem in Washington and makes miscalculations a part of the process as long as the money flows from the federal gov’t.

      Reply ↓
  8. Lena

    Ohio River Valley Virus Report:

    Everyone I know is sick with Norovirus, COVID-19, RSV, a “really nasty cold” or whatever. Most of them don’t even know which virus they have. They aren’t testing, they aren’t masking. Some just got over COVID-19 and now have Notorious (wastewater shows record levels of Norovirus). They are continuing their ‘normal’ lives (unless they have a *really bad* case of the runs) even though they are sick – going to work, to church, to restaurants, concerts, theatre, etc. It’s insane how much in denial they are. I am staying away from people as much as possible. I insist anyone who visits me must wear a mask while I also wear a mask.

    We are expecting a major winter storm this weekend. The prediction is a foot or more of snow and possibly ice. I don’t know how I’m going to get my necessary supplies, living with a terminal illness, not being able to drive or use the bus. I wonder how I will even get out my front door if there is considerable snow and ice lasting a week or more. Ice is my greatest fest. I can barely walk on a good day. With my ‘support network’ (heh) sicker than dogs, l have little or no help. It’s scary.

    I just hope the power doesn’t go out. I’ve sometimes lost power during the winter for a week or more. It’s going to get very cold. I’ve located every working battery I can find in my home. Maybe at least I won’t be stumbling around in the dark, breaking my neck in the process. No way do I want to end up in the ER or have to go to a shelter with ‘deadly to me’ viruses currently running amok.

    Reply ↓
          1. .human

            I’m so tired of things not working and non-compatability that I’ve learned to just let it slide if I don’t find an easy work-around. One of the main reasons I switched to Linux nearly 30 years ago (I was an early tester and minor contributor) and have had little reason to look back.

            Reply ↓
            1. Jason Boxman

              Oh, Linux! I have router appliance, a pro-sumer router, because my last one would randomly drop my Internet.

              I spent too many hours yesterday identifying and trying to resolve some issue with the routing having no storage space, for 6 months, which I hadn’t noticed. Apparently I filled up the logs by resolving too many DNS names, and they don’t check for that, so I was sshing into it and fiddling with it, trying to clean up the database, copy it to a USB stick, learning the manufacturer creates a random PostgreSQL database on new USB sticks, deleting and vacuuming the other database, dealing with accidentally filling up the root disk by copying the database to it instead of a mount point, and on and on.

              Linux, isn’t it great!

              What’s amazing is I remember how to ssh into a box, track down what process has a file open, mount and unmount USB sticks, format them, copy files around, connect to both Sqlite and PostgreSQL without using Google or ChatGPT, blah blah. And it’s been 15 years since I’ve messed with any of it professionally.

              Anyway. I hate technology.

              I still have no idea why this router was randomly causing huge packet loss on multiple systems, which is the real issue, and a reboot fixes it, but I don’t want to have to reboot this new router, the release the former one was replaced! Sigh.

              Why can’t the stuff just work?

              Reply ↓
              1. Acacia

                Idk why routers are particularly awful, but after three or four that flaked out I switched to OpenWRT and it’s been smooth sailing since. At the beginning, when something untoward happened, I always got great advice on their forum.

                Reply ↓
              2. steppenwolf fetchit

                I am just an old analog refugee in this new digital world, so in a spirit of pure innocence and total ignorance I have to wonder whether the same uncontrolled complexity and mutual suspicion and unintelligibility that may exist throughout the intel and mil communities may have its digital analog throughout the digital machinery ecosystem. That is, the digital supersystem is so complex that the machines, programs, etc. themselves are suspicious of eachother and hostile to eachother and “the stuff” will never again ” just work”. ( Quite apart from Mr. Ed Zitron’s ” black-hat enshitifiers” polluting every thing they invent).

                Never ever.

                But I’m just an analog refugee, so what would I know?

                Reply ↓
            2. Glen

              I can see the “click to edit” function (I’m using firefox or ungoogled-chrome on archlinux), but alas, I still write like english is my second language, and my first language is gibberish.

              Reply ↓
      1. Lena

        Thank you, Rev. I do have layers I can wear and I only have two rooms so that helps.

        I noticed that autocorrect turned Norovirus into Notorious in my first comment. That seems appropriate. It’s a great movie, too!

        Reply ↓
        2. amfortas the hippie

          good luck, Lena.
          here in the northwest texas hill country, i wont be that bad…just bad for us.
          even maybe snow on thursday(ugh).
          so ive been running the chainsaw as much as im able…and while ive split some, my body just aint what it used to be…so i beg and cajole the boys to come on out tomorrow to fill up the wood porch.
          i also have that minisplit…but the heater function only works down to around 30 degrees,lol.
          so i corralled all the little milkroom heaters stashed here and there.
          if power fails, i’ll be on the couch in front of the main woodstove.
          washed all the VA blankets stepdad got sent home with every time he went to VA hospital, too.
          my task tomorrow is stapling a layer of heavy mil plastic on the outside of the little greenhouse.
          with woodstove in there, and the big clawfoot filled up at night, that’ll be the place to be while its sunny.

          again, good luck.
          toss on another cat.

          Reply ↓
          2. Lena

            Thank you for the kind words, amfortas. You always paint such vivid pictures of your homestead, I can see it in my mind’s eye. How I wish I had a wood stove, it sounds so cozy and warm. Sadly, not possible in my tiny basement apartment in the city.

            I only have the one cat, a little rescue kitty whose ear was clipped because somebody, at some point, thought she was feral but they were wrong. Smart girl, she seems to know a big snowstorm is on the way. She’s extra cuddly this evening.

            Stay safe.

            Reply ↓
    3. griffen

      It’s forecast to be a little less wild here in the southeast/South Carolina, but it will be an unseasonably cold stretch; maybe we get something closer to ice than snow, but snowfall here is unreliable at best as we might receive a dusting of snow and ice during January or early February.

      Best wishes on staying reliably warm, safe and indoors. For fans of professional US football, it’s the culmination of the NFL season’s effort starting this afternoon. And for several head coaches their winter gets darkest on Monday when they get fired…

      Reply ↓
      1. Lena

        I worry about those coaches. How will they survive? Life is so unfair, as the great sage and philosopher Lyle Lovett once said.

        Reply ↓
          1. Bugs

            Wow there’s a big variance there. Hard to believe John Harbaugh makes twice what Matt Lafleur gets. I’d say they’re equally good at what they do.

            There’s got to be bonus pay in there.

            Andy Reid has done a heck of a job with the Chiefs. Can’t really begrudge him that. They consistently go out there looking like they’re having the times of their lives running and tossing the ball around and just win. Still, $20m is a lot less than what Mahomes is making.

            As far as game calling, the amount Brady is getting to do color on Fox is a scandal. He’s awful. Unprepared, egotistical, sometimes just vapid. Compare him to Manti T’eo who just knows the game and seemingly has every detail of the teams and players in perfect recall to provide analysis.

            Reply ↓
            1. NotTimothyGeithner

              The story is Parcells told Belichick that you have to play a version of yourself because its all showbiz and they aren’t actors except they are always on. Brady is the kind of guy who would rip apart a receiver for not taking the aggressive route on a pass option. His Greg Olsen act just doesn’t work, even though he is trying to copy Olsen’s cadence.

              What Brady is actually thinking is “they should cut this guy.” The Manning Cast works because Eli and Payton are playing themselves. Unless Brady had a well of talent (ex. doing HS drama in the spring semester), he was always going to be terrible.

              I listened to Kareem Abdul Jabar on the Dan Patrick show once, and Dan asked Kareem about Bill Walton. Kareem said the announcer Walton was the 17 year old he showed around UCLA.

              Reply ↓
          2. griffen

            There are some serious big money deals in the ranks of US college football head coaching pay and total compensation as well. Based on the production and effort on the playing field first and foremost…. performance in the class room and achievements toward that undergraduate degree for their players is seemingly a secondary concern. Below is a quick listing.

            https://www.si.com/college-football/10-highest-paid-college-football-coaches-for-the-2024-season

            At least in today’s more updated environment the better players can and do work the angles for a transfer situation that best suits their talent and the likely desire to continue playing at a high level which attracts NFL scouts and draft analysts. Sorry to say it but Dabo Swinney can eat lead chips, he isn’t quitting his high paid gig to coach Clemson football like he had once proclaimed. Granted that I must now include that my college team of choice, UNC-CH, is paying Bill Belichick a vast sum of money along with his coaching staff. So it’s getting expensive now!

            Reply ↓
            1. scott s.

              I suppose these days we will be able to make lists of the 10 highest paid college players. Will be interesting to see football vs basketball. Don’t suppose hockey or baseball players would make the top 10, but maybe I’m wrong.

              Reply ↓
        2. griffen

          They win on the field they succeed and do well or they fail…and still get contractually paid a quite handsome sum of money and then go elsewhere to consult or be a talking head on any given channel or TV station like an ESPN…Or to quote famed singer and good writer of lyrics Don Henley, “…and lawyers clean up small details…”

          Speaking of one example former player and head coach Herm Edwards, who I guess was a decent coach but I tend to flip a channel as I just don’t care to listen to his opinion. Adding yeah I take it by your reply that was an apparently sly remark about their actual survival! ” Will no one think of the highly paid CEO or highly paid head coach family and small children? The winters in Chicago are brutal and cold! “

          Reply ↓
    4. albrt

      Same thing among my friends in northwest Ohio, and they all got together to play poker in a small woodshop last night. Glad I am not there so I don’t feel obligated to lecture them or make excuses.

      Reply ↓
      1. Lena

        Lambert’s charts yesterday showed a considerable amount of orange and red in Ohio. It seems worse than the rest of the country, not only for COVID-19 but other viruses as well. As I wrote above, Norovirus in wastewater is at a record level. I wonder why? Ohio is not a major hub.

        Reply ↓
        1. nyleta

          Looking at the medical reddit’s novovirus is rampant all through the US, deep into the hospital staff and being picked up off grocery carts. The surprise this winter is the extent of sepsis which seems to point to a deepening of the underlying health malaise there.

          Reply ↓
    5. Felix

      sorry for all you’re going thru, Lena. Good energy and kind thoughts your way. I’m glad you have a cat with you, they bring so much comfort to us.

      Reply ↓
  9. Zagonostra

    >House approves new rules protecting Mike Johnson from ouster Axios

    That is a significantly higher bar than in the 118th Congress when any single member in either party could force such a motion.

    So glad our Congress is constantly innovating on ways to “strengthen our democracy”

    Reply ↓
  10. Zagonostra

    >Supporting Ukraine Is in Trump’s Interest Project Syndicate

    As Donald Trump tries to push Ukraine and Russia toward a ceasefire, he should recognize that it is in his own political interest to continue providing significant support to the Ukrainians, and only to accept a deal that produces a sovereign, secure Ukraine. Otherwise, Vladimir Putin – and others – will smell weakness.

    Yes it’s very important that Trump’s personal political interest guide our foreign policy, that’s why people voted for him right?

    Reply ↓
    1. JustTheFacts

      It’s well known that making peace is a form of weakness. Even major religious texts say so. For instance the Bible says “Blessed are the peacemakers, because they will be called sons of God”. Nothing weaker than a son of God.

      Reply ↓
  11. The Rev Kev

    “Russia’s Baltic Sea Cable Sabotage Could Endanger European Energy’

    When they finally get that sorted, you think that they will work on America’s Baltic Sea gas pipeline sabotage which definitely wrecked European energy?

    Reply ↓
    1. upstater

      I wonder how many cables and pipelines Russia has in the Baltic between St Petersburg and Kaliningrad? And if any of these have been “accidentally” severed?

      Reply ↓
  12. Robert Hahl

    Do Carbon Offsets Offset Carbon? American Economic Journal
    If you believe that, I have a carbon offset credit to sell you.

    Reply ↓
  13. Zagonostra

    >Your life is not a story: why narrative thinking holds you back Psyche

    …a child that accepts the narrative of being ‘naughty’ may incorrectly frame their behaviour as bad, rather than as an expression of their unmet needs. Stories can change us by locking us into ways of acting, thinking, and feeling.

    Rather than seeing people as illogical or overly emotional, this new form of psychotherapy focused on the role of narratives in a person’s life

    Seems like an reworking of the old “map is not the territory” theme. What constitutes “unmet needs,” how does the self-ascription of motives function, can you understanding emotions in a illogical/logical framework. Or, does a view that goes beyond the “metaphor” of “stories and narratives” have to take into into account the unique properties of our two hemisphere/brain (thinking specifically of the works of Iain McGilchrist and his book the “Master and his Emissary”) before you can say what is “holding someone back.”

    The human psyche, is still of an unknown makeup, its motives, narratives, stories, and its other constituent parts can never be completely grasped since it has to know its own (thinking of Max Stiner and The Ego and its Own)

    Reply ↓
    1. Lee

      I believe that I’m in agreement with the author in my hard won belief that the stories we tell to ourselves of ourselves are claustrophobia inducing dead ends. To paraphrase: every protagonist becomes at last a bore. Better to focus on “the unregarded river of our life.“

      Reply ↓
  14. The Rev Kev

    “Scores of firefighters left with chronic health conditions years after tackling deadly Grenfell Tower fire”

    So a quarter of firefighters have had serious health effects from the Grenfell fire. I guess that it was because of all the plastics burning in that fire, especially the furniture. So what about the people trapped by that fire? The ones that were told to stay where they were? It does mention them in an off-hand sentence-

    ‘Grenfell United, which represents survivors and bereaved families, said: ‘Following a number of studies into firefighters’ health over the years, we and many others have continued to question the inadequate health monitoring of the survivors, including children who inhaled the toxic smoke.’

    You think that any government would be tracking the health effects on those survivors? Would they even care?

    Reply ↓
    1. Lena

      Heh, your last paragraph cracked me up laughing. Comedy is our best friend these days. “Caring” is for losers.

      Reply ↓
  15. GM

    5 years after it appeared, things we know and still don’t know about COVID PBS. 900 deaths a week. Pretty normal for a new tranche of lethality under Rule #2, well done all.

    An extremely important correction — 900 officially recorded deaths a week.

    But almost nobody is testing and reporting, so the real number is much higher, the question is how many times exactly. Which nobody knows at this point either, because even excess deaths cannot be calculated as there is no relevant pre-pandemic baseline anymore.

    Reply ↓
  16. Safety First

    Re: “Political dilemma facing Russian politicians.”

    That article rubs me wrong, and not just because Mark Galeotti is an imbecile masquerading as an historian.

    It starts with the little inaccuracies and inconsistencies – for example, the governor of St. Petersburg (but NOT the Leningrad Oblast, so he’s really more like a mayor), Alexander Beglov, is described as “beleaguered”. The man has literally just won reelection in September with 59.8% of the vote, how is that “beleaguered”? Yes, I suppose it isn’t as impressive as United Russia’s showing in the city and district council elections held concurrently – UR got 1310 out of 1497 seats, which is a huge improvement over its total of 949 in the 2019 elections, by the way. And Beglov himself had gotten 64.4% back in 2019, so I guess he’s slipping some. But beleaguered? Really?

    Then there is the overall framing. The government, and its various propaganda outlets, has taken great pains to NOT let the war intrude on the civilian life as much as possible. So why should local and regional politicians campaign on the war?!! Instead of, say, fixing the potholes, literally, which, if you watch the nightly local news in Moscow and St. Petersburg (available on Smotrim.ru), both Beglov and Sobyanin literally seem to spend most of their time doing. And which the regular civilian population, the overwhelming majority of which has not been impacted by the war other than via the sanctions (and rapid wage growth in certain industries), tends to focus a lot more on – roads, grocery prices, healthcare, you get the drift.

    Conveniently Galeotti does not even attempt to bring in any opinion polls or sociological surveys – which are actually pretty nuanced as support for the SMO goes, but the overall figures are still pretty high. But an even bigger sign that he ignores which is directly germane to his thesis is that the government has been very publicly appointing SMO veterans to various positions through the “Time of Heroes” program. If, as Galeotti maintains, Russia is a) a totalitarian-authoritarian-antidisestablishmentarian non-democratic dictatorship thingie, and b) public opinion is nevertheless used as a barometer for things to do or not to do, then appointing dozens of vets and extolling them in press conference after press conference as the country’s “new elite” means…what, exactly? Anybody? Bueller?

    Anyhow. I wouldn’t have gone off at all, since it is Galeotti, but the “beleaguered” Beglov thing got me going.

    Reply ↓
    1. CA

      “Galeotti maintains, Russia is a) a totalitarian-authoritarian-antidisestablishmentarian non-democratic dictatorship thingie, and b) public opinion is nevertheless used as a barometer for things to do or not to do…”

      The trick is paying for a Russian or Chinese name (far away from Russia or China) to attack either country socially and culturally.

      Reply ↓
  17. The Rev Kev

    ‘Collin Rugg
    @CollinRugg
    NEW: Greenland Prime Minister Múte Egede calls for independence from Denmark as Donald Trump ramps up his calls for acquiring the territory.’

    Bit ominous seeing Ursula in that picture You think that if Greenland becomes independent, that the EU will offer to fast track them into EU membership? Greenland should examine what is happening in both Georgia and Romania to see what that would be like. A lot depends on the political setup in Greenland but I would not be surprised to see the local elites trying to sell Greenland out for personal profit. It has happened before. Maybe they should be tracking the number of NGOs in Greenland right now.

    Reply ↓
    1. Bugs

      Yeah VdL’s like Where’s Waldo at this point. Just look for the helmet of blonde hair near a microphone.

      Greenland is a member of the OCTA, like French and Dutch overseas territories but I don’t think they could simply join the EU on a fast track, it would be the usual accession process. That said, they probably won’t have to adopt new law in harmonization with the acquis. But they’d have to adopt the Euro and as we know, Denmark, in its great wisdom, was able to opt out of it.

      Reply ↓
    2. aleric

      It seems to me that Greenland ‘Independence’ is largely the same as a US takeover. One of the few remaining diplomatic strengths of the US is suborning the leadership of island micro-states (Pacific and Caribbean) for political and military purposes.

      Reply ↓
      2. steppenwolf fetchit

        Is the Greenland Leadership afraid of Denmark selling Greenland to the US? Is that why they want to rush for Independence? To head off what they think is Denmark’s rush to sell Greenland to the US?

        If that is what they think, then why would they think that? If that is not what they think, then why do they suddenly want Independence?

        Reply ↓
    4. hk

      Well, there was Crimea–and US forces in Greenland, relatively speaking, are much larger than the Russian Black Sea Fleet vis-a-vis whatever Denmark has. Normally, I’m not a fan of US flexing muscle vaingloriously even in the Western Hemisphere, but, if we Crimea Greenland, I’ll say that it couldn’t have happened to nicer people.

      Reply ↓
        1. hk

          True, but US has been making claim to all of North America since at least 1775 (before US even existed.)

          (One can get too far talking about what belonged to whom since whenever: as per what a Crow tribe warrior told a Lakota woman when asked why he’s helping the whites take away the latter’s lands, “Because the Black Hills used to belong to the Crow before the Lakota.”)

          Reply ↓
          1. Felix

            hadn’t heard that particular Crow story, doesn’t surprise me though. Whether it’s individuals, tribes or nations one’s immediate or longstanding enemies often supersede its true enemies.
            I’d heard a story about the Crow, or it might have been Pawnee. When asked why they didn’t fight white soldiers, the response was essentially the soldier’s feared risking their lives too much to fight like warriors, whereas natives fought with honor and were willing to die.
            Honor in the eye of the beholder. IDF and US snipers are honored. To natives counting coup at risk of death more honorable.

            Reply ↓
        2. Paleobotanist

          We have forgotten (or never knew) how bad the Crimean Tatar slave raids were into Russia and the Ukraine to fed the Istanbul slave markets. They were appallingly merciless and cruel as was the African slave raids.

          Reply ↓
          1. scott s.

            Isn’t it just a continuation of battles between Muskovy and the Golden Horde? And really emblematic of the history of lands conquered by the Mongols?

            Reply ↓
            1. hk

              The Crimean Khanate became a vassal of the Ottomans by about 16th century or so, so their history is a bit different, as far as I know, from those of Kazan or Astrakhan (the other successor states of the Golden Horde.) More akin to the Barbary Pirates who were engaged in similar activities roughly the same time (also as Ottoman vassals).

              Reply ↓
      2. ambrit

        Seeing it’s physical location and climate, Greenland would be a much better fit with Canada. As far as cultural fits go, Greenland and Iceland? Considering the population makeup and cultural issues, the best fit I can come up with for Greenland is Siberia. Now that would be geostrategic fun!
        I noticed no Inuit in that photograph, and they make up 90% of the population.
        See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Greenland

        Reply ↓
        1. jrkrideau

          Considering the population makeup and cultural issues, the best fit I can come up with for Greenland is Siberia.

          Given the demographics I’d guess the best cultural fit would be with Canada’s North. The culture of Nunavut, I suspect in rather close to Greenland. The Inuit languages, also, are close though I am not sure how close.

          Reply ↓
          1. ambrit

            I wonder then if Quebec, the Northwest Territory, and Greenland, having non-English speaking populations, could be constituted as Autonomous Regions.

            Reply ↓
    5. LifelongLib

      Somebody from the UK told me that if Scotland had left the UK before Brexit, it would still have been an EU member even though no longer part of the UK. But if Scotland leaves now (after Brexit) it will have to go through the whole process of (re) joining the EU. No idea which (if either) of these scenarios is accurate or has any applicability to Greenland/Denmark.

      Reply ↓
  18. CA

    Where the current narrative comes from:

    https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-with-george-stephanopoulos-of-abc-good-morning-america/

    February 24, 2023

    SECRETARY BLINKEN: China’s been trying to have it both ways. It’s on the one hand trying to present itself publicly as neutral and seeking peace, while at the same time it was talking up Russia’s false narrative about the war. It is, as I said, providing nonlethal assistance through its companies and now contemplating lethal assistance.

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      You should read that FT article about the same. It features the wit and wisdom of SecState Blinken while constantly talking about the wines that they are drinking and the foods that they are eating and personal touches about Blinken’s life. Blinken will go down as one of the worse SecStates that the US has ever had but that FT was just a puff piece for him.

      Reply ↓
      1. CA

        “FT article about the same. It features the wit and wisdom of SecState Blinken while constantly talking about the wines that they are drinking and the foods that they are eating…”

        An incisive summary, where the point of diplomacy becomes knowing that 1978 was a better year than 2012 in French wine country (wherever that is anyway).

        Reply ↓
  19. Afro

    I can’t help but suspect Antony Blinken is an idiot.

    With respect to China having it “both ways”, my thinking is they’re actually playing it neutral. They are supplying both Russia and Ukraine and have relations with both governments. I believe a lot of Ukraine’s drone materials come from China.

    Reply ↓
    1. hk

      My understanding is that China probably helped Ukraine more in terms of actual results than US did, although the latter probably helped Z and his swell gang get a lot of homes abroad.

      Reply ↓
    2. NYT_Memes

      Antony Blinken – an idiot, but one with elitist culture and schooling, so there is that. Well credentialed!

      Reply ↓
  20. The Rev Kev

    ” ‘Mystery volcano’ that erupted and cooled Earth in 1831 has finally been identified”

    It will be interesting now that they know where that volcano is, how they will be finding all sorts of accounts in contemporary records, local newspapers, ship’s logs, etc. that will give confirmation of this volcano and what it was like.

    Reply ↓
  21. VTDigger

    Re: Narrative thinking

    Funny, my attempt to “change the narrative” when I get a speeding ticket never works. Hasn’t worked on medical bills either.

    Turns out that it’s not all in your head!

    Reply ↓
  22. Skip Intro

    Macron Appoints Zombie Government in France
    Another win for representation of this rapidly growing but still often excluded minority. I think Biden’s extremely successful presidency has really shattered the glass ceiling for photogenically neoliberal zombie politicians around the world.

    Reply ↓
    1. Aurelien

      It’s not so much the government that’s the problem, or even Macron, really, it’s that the French people voted in July 2022 for a Parliament in which it is impossible to form a stable majority. (Yes, Macron was an idiot for calling the elections, since you ask.) In the circumstances, the greatest political genius in the world couldn’t resolve the problem. The only plausible coalition mathematically is a centre-right one with the passive acquiescence of the RN, which is what we had under Barnier and what we now have under Bayrou. People like the LFI spokesbot interviewed here are just going to have to get used to the fact that nobody wants to talk to them.

      Reply ↓
        1. Aurelien

          OK, I left out the irony tag. But it’s true that the current configuration of the National Assembly approximately reflects the deep splits in the country, and the consequent impossibility of forming a government that can command a majority. No amount of posturing or clever manoeuvring can get round this, and no practicable combination of parties in the NA can have a majority. But even if another election is held in July this year (the earliest date possible) the divisions in the country will likely produce the same result or a similar one.

          Reply ↓
          2. CA

            China is about 8.7 times the size of France in GDP, and compliments France economically and culturally in many ways. The opportunities for France to work with China strike me as excellent, and obviously President Xi was expressing this to Macron, so that seems an obvious France direction.

            For instance, of the top 15 high value research institutions on the latest Nature Index for 2024, China counts for 11 and France 1. France is committed to nuclear energy development, while China has been operating self-developed third generation nuclear reactors…

            Reply ↓
          3. Daniil Adamov

            I wonder if there is any way out of this quagmire, other than the centre-right throwing in the towel, throwing out Macron and giving its backing to Le Pen. That seems like the surest way of forming a stable majority now… but even it has problems, as any group trying to ally with the Forbidden will almost certainly undergo a schism.

            Reply ↓
            1. hk

              At the risk of falling into the facile mental trap, that was the problem with Heinrich Bruening’s (basically unelected) government, wasn’t it?

              Reply ↓
        2. Bugs

          Our friend Aurelien has it in for LFI and especially the figure of Jean-Luc Mélanchon. It’s simply galling that the blundering centrists haven’t managed to peel off the PS and Ecologists from the New Popular Front to add to their useless government, led by a bumbling end of career political non-entity who was only recently indicted – and lost a ministerial position – for corruption.

          Perhaps some issues really are popular, as in Popular Front, and the coalition of the left actually stands for what the majority of French want and voted for: repeal of the pension reform, wealth taxes, and the restoration of workers’ rights. A majority also want Macron to resign immediately.

          That said, it’s entirely delusional to imagine that a PM & government from the NFP would be able to withstand a confidence vote. That much is true.

          Elections will come in July and should bring clarity. Or more chaos…

          Reply ↓
      2. CA

        “It’s not so much the government that’s the problem, or even Macron, really, it’s that the French people voted in July 2022 for a Parliament in which it is impossible to form a stable majority…”

        Yes and no. As Tolstoy explained, the French people in 1812 willingly even happily took off after Napoleon to wage war in Russia. Napoleon however was the French thought leader who was destructive and self-destructive enough to ask the French people to wage war. President Xi offered a direction to Macron in Beijing, which was for the French to work closely on political-economic matters with China. Macron seemed immediately excited by the idea, but on returning to France the idea was forgotten and France has floundered since.

        Reply ↓
      3. CA

        https://twitter.com/thinking_panda/status/1644368570141507584

        ShanghaiPanda @thinking_panda

        President Xi told a story to President Macron:

        Chinese ancient musicians Yu Boya and Zhong Ziqi’s friendship was strengthened by music. Boya played a piece of music that only Ziqi could understand, demonstrating that true friendship requires mutual understanding and appreciation.

        11:56 AM · Apr 7, 2023

        This story implies that in international politics, mutual understanding and appreciation are key to building strong relationships between nations. By valuing and respecting each other’s differences, nations can find common ground and work together towards common goals.

        Despite having different political systems, ideologies and histories, both China & France are major powers with significant geopolitical and economic influence.

        Both countries should seek common ground while respecting differences; together maintain peace and prosperity for both nations.

        https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtH6VGWaEAEL0vA?format=jpg&name=small

        Reply ↓
    2. Carolinian

      For some of us here in the cheap seats the clownshow that was the Paris Olympics said it all. It looks like France is in full Hunger Games mode.

      In my long ago travels I thought France was the most beautiful country. The French on the other hand….

      It could be all that “chauvinism” has gone to their heads. There once was a New Wave and before that a cinema of working class poetry. But there as here the empire struck back or so it seems.

      Reply ↓
      1. Skip Intro

        Excellent. Their work provides a snapshot of the pre-TDS and pre-covid population. The combination of high intensity gaslighting and viral degradation of cognitive facilities has increased the zombie demographic enough that it seems more and more are coming out of the closet and openly striving for fulfilling lives as consumers and influencers.

        Reply ↓
  23. JustTheFacts

    The math trick is fun.

    (a – b)(c -d) = ac – bc – ad + bd

    But if a = c, then

    ac – bc – ad + bd = ac – bc – dc + bd = (a – b – d)c + bd

    I.e. (100 – 3 – 6)*100 + 3*6 = 9100 + 18 + 9118.

    The trick is noticing that a = c means one can simplify the problem.

    Reply ↓
    1. CA

      “The math trick is fun.”

      Perfectly and importantly explained. The need is to make math a visual experience, doing so is allowing for all sorts of Chinese science or technology advances.

      Reply ↓
    2. hk

      Or, you could approach it as follows (same logic, different sequence):

      97×94 = 94×100 -94×3 = 9400-(100×3-6×3) = 9400-300+18=9118.

      Thinking with round numbers as “anchors,” rather than start with a=c, is easier for a lot of people.

      Reply ↓
      1. Mrinal Ghosh

        Yup, she applied the formulae: (n-3)*(n-6) = n^2 – 9n + 18 where n = 100.

        So, she stares at the problem, figures out the formula, and writes 3 and 6 which she then multiples by n (100) and subtracts from n^2 (10000) to give her 91xx. She writes 91. Then multiplies 3 and 6 to add the last 2 digits. Smart and fast. it was fun to do such quick arithmetic during my school days.

        Reply ↓
        1. hk

          I started coming up with methods like this partly because of teaching (ironically, I nominally taught poli sci, but I spent more time teaching math b/c of stats and game theory) and because I realized I’m not as good at doing math on the fly as I used to be, then started noticing that my math shortcuts had a systematic logic that I hadn’t realized at first.

          Reply ↓
    3. Mo

      So in fact the solution on the right is indeed a trick, while the one on the left is truly a general method.

      Both are important to understand

      Reply ↓
    4. bayoustjohndavid

      Thanks for explaining that. But I’m curious, was the Chinese method a method or a trick? If it’s a method, it doesn’t seem like it would have been at all faster for multiplying two 57 X 63 (or two similar numbers). If anything, it seems like it might have been more error prone.

      Ten years ago, Ryan Fitzpatrick’s then seven year-old son multiplied 93 X 97 in his head for an astounded audience, but Ryan Fitzpatrick introduced the trick by asking the reporter for two numbers in the nineties.* So I’m curious, did the Chinese student get lucky, or would her method have been equally fast with two different numbers?

      My initial thought was that she got lucky that they were asked to multiply two that a trick worked on, but the other comments leave me wondering if it’s a superior method.

      *it shows right up if you Google “Ryan Fitzpatrick’s son math” (I had trouble inserting the link).

      Reply ↓
      1. NotTimothyGeithner

        Since you mentioned it, its just (60+3)(60-3) = 3600 plus outside and inside terms that cancel out plus negative nine which equals 3591.

        It worked for me because I was particularly sloppy with math operations from the pen to paper side, but my mental math was always sharp. Moving everything to “mental” math reduces the chances of a mistake.

        Reply ↓
        1. NotTimothyGeithner

          To a large extent, it comes back from fundamentals and comfort with fundamentals. Math is easy! It just requires a certain amount of tediousness and occasionally explaining what X is really for so kids buy in which is the problem with elementary school math. They often don’t know or don’t have time to slow walk the kids through the next six years of math. If you know 36+28, why do you need to know what the estimated answer is?

          Something like 72 and 18 strikes me as harder, I don’t have the comfort with the addition and subtraction to make it elegant.

          Eventually would have to be (50+22)(50-32) leaving you with 22*32. There is where the method breaks down. It stops being neat.

          Reply ↓
          1. GC54

            You should always try to minimize the final multiplication with an easy first multiplication, so (70+2)(20-2) =1400–140+40-4=1296

            Reply ↓
      2. NN Cassandra

        It’s method in that the formula (a+b)(a+c)=a(a+b+c)+bc can be used on any two numbers, however to use it as speedup a needs to be round number, ideally some power of 10, and b and c single digit numbers, so both multiplications are simple and you have to deal only with few additions and/or subtractions. So 93×97=(100-7)×(100-3)=100×(100-7-3)+7×3 is quite easy to compute in head, but for example while you can rewrite 81×53 as (70+11)×(70-17)=70×(70+11-17)-11×17=70×64-11×17 and it’s true, only you just turned one long multiplication into basically two.

        Reply ↓
    5. Mrinal Ghosh

      I think she used an even simpler version of the process suggested above.

      Note what she does. First, she stares at the problem realizing that it is essentially (n-3)*(n-6) = n^2 – 9n + 18 for n=100 and writes 3 and 6. Then, she mentally added 3 and 6 to 9, muktiplies it by n (100) to arrive at 900, and subtracts it from n^2 (10000) to arrive at 9100. She writes 91. Then she simply multiplies 3 and 6 = 18 and adds the 18 after the 91 to get 9118.

      In a separate post I referred a magnificent system of speed mathematics developed by a Swiss mathematician – Jakow Trachtenberg – and illustrated in his book titled The Trachtenberg Speed System Of Basic Mathematics. I have a copy obtained from a footpath book seller in Mumbai. I don’t have it with me here – a grad student borrowed it a few weeks ago.

      It is simply phenomenal. For instance, the square of any number that ends with 5 is (and I paraphrase): “multiply the part of the number that does not include 5 with the next number on the integer scale and just put 25 besides the output”. What does it mean? Suppose you want to know the square of 85. Multiply 8 (part of the number that does not include 5) with 9 (next number on the integer scale) = 72. Then just add the 2 digits besides 25 to arrive at 7225 = 85 squared. Square of 125? = 15625 (12 times its next number and 25).

      It has so many wonderful tricks that I loved as a school kid. Came up with some of my own speed math stuff. Was fun and games.

      Reply ↓
      1. jrkrideau

        The Trachtenberg Speed System Of Basic Mathematics.

        A cousin of mine received that book, way back in the last century, as a prize when he got his B.Sc. I can remember reading some of it and being fascinated.

        Reply ↓
    6. Katniss Everdeen

      Pretty neat “trick.” Perfect for internet video. I don’t know if she understands the “why” of it, but it sure looks impressive.

      My guess is this would be a tough one if you were trying to multiply decimals like 97.427 X 94.864. Prolly need to go back to basics. Slow and steady wins the race.

      If you want “fast,” get a calculator. But as my mother, who taught “maths” at the time that calculators
      became a thing used to say, you’d better know how to estimate in case you punch the numbers in wrong and come up with an answer that makes you look like and idiot.

      Reply ↓
      1. Mel

        Very slick, and it perfectly tracks what happened on the blackboard.
        Arithmetic by concatenation looks bloody miraculous, and works when there are lots of powers of 10 floating around, viz. the trick described upthread for squaring numbers ending in 5.

        One last gasp, for people who hate subtraction:

        97 * 94 = (95 + 2) * (95 – 1)
        = 95 * 95 giving 9025 by the trick upthread
        plus (95 * 2) – (95 * 1) giving 9120 because 2 95s minus 1 95 leaves one lone 95
        minus 2*1. because subtracting 2 is easy
        and … 9118

        Reply ↓
    8. NYT_Memes

      Simplification of math was fun this way – 50 years ago when my brain wasn’t so cluttered. I used the “Chinese” method often. At least fellow engineers got it. Family – not so much. “Thinking outside the box” often means using basic concepts to see things differently.

      Unfortunately more important problems aren’t so easy to solve.

      Reply ↓
  25. Mikel

    A real “wake up call” message looks like wikileaks that people went to jail and were tortured over.
    A “wake up call” is not the muddled ramblings sowing confusion that are presented with these attacks. If the attacks had not got them (victims of attacks and perpetrators) first, the profit over people system would have done the job eventually to most.

    Reply ↓
  27. Mrinal Ghosh

    There is a magnificent system of speed mathematics developed by a Swiss mathematician – Jakow Trachtenberg – and illustrated in his book titled The Trachtenberg Speed System Of Basic Mathematics. I have a copy obtained from a footpath book seller in Mumbai.

    Reply ↓
    1. jrkrideau

      I believe Trachtenberg was Russian from Odessa when it was part of the Russian Empire, though I think he was in Switzerland when he wrote the book. It was based on work he did while in a Nazi concentration camp and he seems to have moved to Switzerland after the war.

      Curt Herzstark did a lot of his development work on the Curta , reputedly the world’s smallest commercially produced mechanical calculator, while a Nazi slave labourer.

      There is an electronic version of his book (in English I think), available for free download ot the internet.

      Reply ↓
    2. jrkrideau

      “These nineteen Americans are great leaders who have made America a better place,” the White House said in a press release.

      Jane Goodall and Lionel Messi are US citizens? Has anybody told them?

      Reply ↓
  29. Jason Boxman

    The Militia and the Mole (ProPublica)

    A wilderness survival trainer spent years undercover, climbing the ranks of right-wing militias. He didn’t tell police or the FBI. He didn’t tell his family or friends.

    He penetrated a new generation of militia leaders, which included doctors and government attorneys. Experts say that militias could have a renaissance under Donald Trump.

    He sent ProPublica a massive trove of documents. The conversations that he secretly recorded give a unique, startling window into the militia movement.

    Reply ↓
    1. flora

      And this didn’t come out during the B admin? A year and a half ago?

      ” On April 1, 2023, Williams retrieved the bag from his closet and rushed to his car. He had no time to clean the dishes that had accumulated in his apartment.”

      This only comes out now? Jan. 4th, 2025, via Pro Publica? How convenient. / ;)

      Reply ↓
      1. flora

        adding, I like Pro Publica. That doesn’t mean they can’t be used. A year and half and 2 years ago the B admin was warning of white superist groups, especially of white, Christianist superist groups. So why not blow a whistle then? When the idea was in the news and the ‘iron was hot’, as they say. Why wait until now? / ;)

        Reply ↓
          1. flora

            Taibbi’s latest. Very short public excerpt:

            Gaslit Nation
            From drones to terrorists, authorities are having a laugh at the public’s expense

            https://www.racket.news/p/gaslit-nation

            From the longer article:
            While I do believe in DOD civilian massacres, I don’t believe in “gravitistic propulsion,” nor do I believe there’s a Men in Black-style squad out chasing and perhaps assassinating rogue Green Berets. I refuse absolutely to bite on that part of the story. But there’s no longer any way to ignore the proposition that the government is playing mind games with the public when it comes to the release of information.

            Reply ↓
        2. marym

          He does kind of provide the timing of what he was doing. (However, fwiw, it’s in the rambling style I see in so many articles that wanders back and forth in time and place. Among other wanderings sometimes when he’s quoting what people said or describing how they sounded it’s worded as it would be if he was actually hearing it, but it’s because he’s listening to recordings. It’s not always clear when there are transitions in talking about contacts before or after he got the package, before or after they met, etc. but after a while I got tired of scrolling back and forth to sort it out.)

          “So I pored over his files, tens of thousands of them. They included dozens of hours of conversations he secretly recorded and years of private militia chat logs and videos. I was able to authenticate those through other sources, in and out of the movement. I also talked to dozens of people, from Williams’ friends to other members of his militias. I dug into his tumultuous past and discovered records online he hadn’t pointed me to that supported his account.”

          “In August [2024], I published my investigation into AP3. (I used his records but did not otherwise rely on Williams as an anonymous source.)” [https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-secret-ap3-militia-american-patriots-three-percent]

          “…Williams is going on the record, albeit without his original name. He still plans to release thousands of files after this article is published…”

          Reply ↓
    2. griffen

      That’s a fantastical telling of what appears to be a generally true account…but at some point I’m thinking of a building doubt of how truthful. The mole can capably infiltrate more than just the one militia group, and in the main group he rises to a high value, highly visible role in the state chapter?

      Begrudgingly it could be equal parts truth and horse manure… people would perhaps recognize if he seemed ill from stress levels or the lack of decent , consistent nutrition after all? Yeah even granting the mole had developed survival skills in the desert or wherever remote.

      Making me think of the Eric Rudolph story some 20 plus years ago, fwiw. Just not at the level of dumpster diving for any available food.

      Reply ↓
  30. Kouros

    Some positivity there in Sunny California

    ‘We Have to Act’: Taxpayers Suing Congressmembers for Funding Genocide Speak Out
    https://scheerpost.com/2025/01/04/we-have-to-act-taxpayers-suing-congressmembers-for-funding-genocide-speak-out/

    The taxpayers are asking the district court to certify the proposed class and declare that defendants Thompson and Huffman violated the Constitution’s tax and spend authority as well as federal statutes when they voted for the Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act. They also ask the court to restrain the defendants from providing further military aid to Israel. And they are requesting compensatory damages for the emotional trauma, mental health problems and depression they have suffered as a result of the ongoing genocide.

    Carol Bloom, a class member from Sonoma County, stated in a release for the Institute for Public Accuracy, “The moral injuries that I and countless other constituents of Representative Huffman have suffered resulting from his vote to arm the genocide in Gaza are immeasurable.”

    Reply ↓
  32. Es s Ce Tera

    re: Las Vegas Bomber Story Takes An Alarming Turn Larry Johnson, Sonar 21.

    Ugh, just watched the video. That’s just great, now the Chinese spy balloons become antigravity spy drones capable of warp travel and launched from submarines on the coast. Next they’ll be saying the Chinese found a stable wormhole leading to the US. Because, you know, China having discovered antigravity and warp, and being so far along in the tech they minitiarize it in drones, just wanted everyone to think they only had old fashioned balloon capability. It’s Pearl Harbor, sneak attack!

    Reply ↓
    2. anahuna

      I share your dismay, but to be fair, he says that both China and the US have had drones with this capability for some time.

      Doesn’t necessarily make it true, but at least more even-handed.

      Reply ↓
  33. Sub-Boreal

    File under “The Bezzle”:

    Real estate developers in downtown Vancouver have used favourable tax treatment of various community amenities to dodge property taxes on vacant lots by establishing temporary community gardens.

    Excerpts:

    As the year 2025 rolled around, many property tax assessments were published in British Columbia. One of the ways for developers to reduce their property tax burden is to clear a lot, and provide an amenity such as an off leash dog park or community garden on the empty lot. Do such deals truly benefit the public? Or are these just large tax breaks for corporations? And are they worth the cost to society in terms of lost tax revenues?

    One case study is the community garden at 1166 West Pender Street in Vancouver. This site is directly in the shadow of skyscrapers in the Central Business District. One might wonder about the amount of solar access for this site that is located across the laneway from The Stack (1133 Melville). How much direct sunlight does this site receive during the growing season? Is it a good use for this space?

    Reply ↓
  35. Ben Panga

    Taibbi’s latest: Gaslit Nation (paywalled)

    The canny will also notice the twin sets of Livelsberger manifestoes seem perfectly tailored for left and right audiences, with the Shawn Ryan deep state action-flick jetting across conservative media, and the PTSD-stricken toxic-masculinity bomber tale getting full play in papers like the Times and Washington Post. There is very little coverage crossover.

    Fwiw he’s also still seeing drones:

    I live in Morris County, New Jersey, not far from the Picatinny Arsenal, the location of enough recent drone sightings to prompt a statement from the Department of Defense. Last night, my son and I booked a court to play tennis in a nearby town. In the drive there and back the sky was filthy with low-flying things.

    Reply ↓
  36. Mikel

    Re: Doctorow – Dialog works transcript:

    “I believe that the government in Damascus would like to have the Russians there as a kind of counterforce in case things don’t go too well with Israel, in case things don’t go too well with Turkey…”

    Where does the assumption come from that Russia is going to be a “counterforce” against Israel?

    Reply ↓
    1. bertl

      From the government in Damascus. The more outsiders the merrier, and the Israelis are best placed and reckless enough to step on Russia’s toes, while the Turks will most likely do their utmost to avoid a conflict with Russia as the Ukraine theatre winds down simply because the core of that conflict would not be in Syria but much closer to home.

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  37. steppenwolf fetchit

    Following that article about increasing severity of Canadian wildfires led to another link about ” Eath’s Loss of old, wise and large animals”. The article pointed to a newly dawning appreciation of the fact that old animals bear the eco-behavioral rooted-wisdom necessary for younger animals of the same species to learn how to function better. With the selective killing off of the oldest and wisest animals of many species, the remaining youngers are becoming less able to function ecologically due to loss of instruction from the missing animal olders.

    https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ado2705

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  38. ChrisPacific

    Re: Bug of the year

    Some remarkable critters there. The writing style also ranges from the drily academic (NZ blue blow fly) to the populist (gravel maggot/smeagol climoi).

    Reply ↓
  39. steppenwolf fetchit

    Well, as I read the “Matt Bauer” style black letter from the ” Incongruities 2″ entry, it certainly sounds like a call for an Argentine Dirty War in this country and renews and perhaps sharpens my suspicion that this and other such things yet to come are designed to bring enough of the American public to an acceptance of an Argentine Dirty War that the wannabe Argentine Dirty Warriors think they can launch it.

    Reply ↓
    1. mrsyk

      What’s contained in his memoirs is less important than the action happening. Everybody has a gripe and a need to exorcise it. Sadly, this seems to scale.

      Reply ↓
  41. i just don't like the gravy

    All this conspiracy nonsense with Livelsberger is amusing. Whatever happened to Occam’s Razor? The Mizrahi tweet is downright laughable and reads like AI slop fan fiction. This bit is particularly stupid:

    We could be looking at a scenario in which foreign powers have managed to breach US defenses and use an ability to mess with the minds of US military personnel, and members of other security establishments as well.

    No buddy. People are just alienated and have brain damage because they have been repeatedly getting Covid for almost half a decade at this point.

    The prevalence of outright psychosis in the US is incredible.

    Reply ↓
  42. Jason Boxman

    So Musk is changing the algorithm to promote “positivity”, so I guess he got roasted on the H1-B thing, and that’s the end of that. Not gonna happen again. Surprise, surprise, eh? He who owns a platform, sets the tone and topics of speech. Hilarious when it is censorship when liberal Democrats run it out of a department adjacent to the White House or whatever, but when a billionaire does it of his own volition, and in his own interest, well, totally cool, yeah?

    Reply ↓
    1. no one

      Musk is changing the algorithm to promote himself, in an unexpected twist of fate. It turns out he did not shell out 44 billion smackeroos for altruistic reasons. Those that thought it would be otherwise, even for a second, have failed IQ test, yet again.

      Reply ↓
  43. Jason Boxman

    Seems timely, again. (2008)

    Will a pandemic bring down civilisation? (New Scientist via archive.ph)

    FOR years we have been warned that a pandemic is coming. It could be flu, it could be something else. We know that lots of people will die. As terrible as this will be, on an ever more crowded planet, you can’t help wondering whether the survivors might be better off in some ways. Wouldn’t it be easier to rebuild modern society into something more sustainable if, perish the thought, there were fewer of us.

    Yet would life ever return to something resembling normal after a devastating pandemic? Virologists sometimes talk about their nightmare scenarios – a plague like Ebola or smallpox – as “civilisation ending”. Surely they are exaggerating. Aren’t they?

    Reply ↓
    1. steppenwolf fetchit

      Fewer of “us” would suit “them” just fine. That’s why “them” are working so assiduously to foam the runway for every new disease that emerges, in hopes that some of those new diseases will just naturally evolve into Jackpot-advancing megadeath pandemics.

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  44. Lambert Strether

    The final paragraph of Taibbi’s latest (hat tip, BP):

    I don’t know what officials are up to, when they leak like sieves about some issues (Russiagate, Luigi Mangione) and refuse to provide even basic answers about others (New Jersey drones, Thomas Crooks, Covid origins). All we know is there’s an elaborate media strategy at work, one that in the content moderation age extends to outright removal of certain materials, like Shamsud bin Jabbar’s Facebook videos. Trying to unwind the logic of these decisions is tiring enough when it’s voluntary, but living in a country that won’t explain things flying over your house is absurd. I get that the president is a corpse, but can’t someone be found to give an old-fashioned Oval Office speech? Why leave us to chew over so much crazy?

    I came up when the blogosphere could do what we called “The Media Critique.” I don’t think that’s an option any more. And when a Taibbi throws up his hands in despair…

    Reply ↓
      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        I could be wrong, but–

        In my view, the media critique depends on the idea that official propaganda efforts are siloed, very much as the White House Iraq Group (WHIG) was under Bush the Younger, which planted the stories supporting WMDs. And outside those siloes the news was, well, straightforward. One could apply the proper discount; this poll was Democrat, that Republican. This source was a spook mouthpiece, that was impeccably honest. So you assault the propaganda silo, say with close reading or investigative reporting, it disintegrates, things net out positive.

        Now, however, WHIG equivalents are everywhere, interfering with each other and creating crosscurrents. At the same time the horrors of the news become more powerful, but we have lost our ability to discount sources properly, and so are galvanized by one horror, than the next, and there’s no way to tell what’s “really” important. It’s as if the narratives were undergoing “re-assortment” in the reservoir of the body politic. The NJ “drones” were weird enough, but now they show up in the Vegas dudes manifesto? Really? How do I even process that? Nothing nets out; the bottom line becomes an ever-receding horizon.

        I couldn’t work it into Links, but when the incongruities in the Vegas and NOLA dude stories began piling up, I wanted to write “No no no no no no no no no no” as the lead-in to that section. It’s all like the last season of Game of Thrones, when the showrunners couldn’t rely on Martin’s plot any more, and lost their minds. No!

        Reply ↓
        1. Steve H.

          > Now, however, WHIG equivalents are everywhere, interfering with each other and creating crosscurrents.

          From John Robb ‘Red Tribe Dynamics’:

          The blue tribe and the red tribe utilize different network dynamics.

          The blue tribe operates based on a networked moral consensus (moral warfare). Our side is good; our enemy is evil. It wins when it can impose that consensus on everyone.

          It uses collective pattern matching to identify the words, phrases, beliefs, symbols, behavior, clothing, etc. that describe the enemy. It uses this moral consensus to create alienation, fear, and anxiety within the opposition’s ranks to reduce its support.

          This collective approach means the blue tribe isn’t led into battle; it swarms as a single entity…

          In contrast;

          The red tribe is focused on disruptive information (maneuver warfare). The network finds and propagates packetized ‘truths’ that contradict consensus truths/reality. This fast-paced effort disorients, disrupts, and overloads the opposition, making it hard for them to make decisions or organize a response.

          Although the red tribe’s network produces alternative truths, it does not do so collectively like the blue tribe. As a result, the truths posited by the red tribe don’t represent a cohesive worldview. They are highly individualized, and their acceptance is tied to the popularity of the leaders that claim them.

          {I’ll speculate, Blue Tribe lost the election and is in fibrillation. Red Tribe won, and is ascendant, with the Non-Independent Variable of Musk controlling TwiX. Thus, ‘interfering with each other and creating crosscurrents’. And I’ll note, for a good segment of the Red pie, the only gleichschaltung they need is Jesus, everything else is forgiven. Not kidding there.)

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          1. Yves Smith

            Sorry, that Robb business is complete nonsense. Team Blue does not have a coherent view. Just press them on their non-scientific views about Covid. This is a prettied-up way of depicting Team R as deplorables. They supposedly use guerrilla warfare like those barefoot Vietnamese. Their views also allegedly lack coherence, again a nod to Team B superiority.

            Reply ↓

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