What Will A Trump-Aligned EU Look Like? 

Outgoing President Joe Biden used his farewell speech to offer warnings about an American oligarchy taking over the country. He spent about half a century in public office serving the oligarchs and helping them tighten control over the country, but he’s not wrong (aside from his choice of verb tense).

Despite a lot of hope about Trump reorienting American foreign policy to better reflect the country’s strategic interests, there are two questions that are rarely addressed in these pieces:

1. Is Trump going to take on this entrenched American oligarchy? All evidence points to a resounding ‘no.’
2. If not, the only interests that matter are those of the oligarchy, and what does it want? Everything.

Until proven otherwise, it’s probably best to view America’s “democratic” transitions of power not as a potential change in underlying strategy but as a useful spectacle that allows for a rebrand.

What does this mean for Europe? There’s a strong argument that it would be in the US national interest to back out of Europe. And the best thing that could happen to Europe would be a Trump-led US withdrawal from the continent, which would force the EU to rethink some of its economic and security policies.

What we are likely witnessing instead is the elevation of putative nationalists like Italian Prime Minister Girogia Meloni and the Alternative for Germany (Afd) party who are able to rebrand Europe’s vassalage and neoliberalism as some sort of victory against the grating virtue signalling of the Davos cabal while continuing to assist the US oligarchs in the plundering of Europe. In a worst case scenario we are likely to see even more authoritarianism in order to continue to transfer wealth from Europeans to US oligarchs.

Europe is now awash with ideas of how to “woo” Trump which is really about appeasing American oligarchy: buy more weapons, buy more LNG and oil, get tougher with China, and Meloni has set an example of selling off Italian assets to US capital.

Why Would Trump Walk Away from a Successful Bust Out Operation? 

The problem with believing that Project Ukraine and the accompanying subjugation of Europe is simply the product of some liberal-woke-Green-DEI cabal that had power across the West is that it ignores the deep-seated economic interests of American plutocrats seeking to extract wealth from any part of the world they control. That’s what the permanent state, driven by the US’ numerous buzzing plutocrat-funded think tank hives crafting bills and direct foreign policy — essentially acting as a shadow government. In some cases, the oligarchs are increasingly comfortable cutting out the middle man, as Musk shows.

Maybe I’ve missed it, but while Trump may pursue some modicum of peace in the empire’s numerous conflicts, a redistribution of wealth from the top down is not on tap, and at best there will be a shift in tactics on how to extract wealth from the rest of the world. Gains are to be increased for American plutocrats at the expense of allies and “enemies” alike seems closer to the real meaning of “America First.”

When viewed through the more traditional state strategy lens, that permanent state is often accused of suffering from a competency crisis due to its oversight of an endless parade of failures, but if you view the US as more of a gangster state focused on the short-term return for the bosses/oligarchs, well, they might be more competent than they seem. It also means the overarching strategy is unlikely to change while the oligarchs are running the show.

With that in mind, despite Ukraine’s impending defeat on the battlefield, are the US gangsters going to want to lose the gains of splitting Europe from Russia? What about the bonuses of having a terrorist state in Europe funneling arms elsewhere and willing to do dirty work like trying to blow up the TurkStream Pipeline — which if successful would benefit American energy companies. And in any detente with Russia, will American oligarchs have any interest in abandoning small progress in the Caucasus and Caspian where they are trying to control the flow of resources toward Europe from that direction as well?

In Europe there is no evidence that the old guard or the new faux nationalist political parties arriving on the scene are prepared to take on the US empire. Indeed, even the Alternative for Germany party, which has long been brutally honest about Berlin being a “slave” to the US, just last week adopted a motion to build closer relations between the two countries. That followed the party receiving some love from Elon Musk and incoming Vice President JD Vance. So is the party now willing to accept its servitude because the new slave master is more friendly or does it expect Trump to set Germany free? It’s likely to be disappointed in either case.

Even if the US extricates itself from Ukraine while ensuring that a new iron curtain is drawn between Europe and Russia, that might mean good business for US oligarchs, but also that Europe’s problems will only multiply. Here’s the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) highlighting some of what Europe could be expected to do to remain in Trump’s/the American oligarchs’ good graces:

Europe can propose creative policies – in Trumpian terms, ‘smart deals’ – to cement these shared interests and secure both itself and Ukraine. One is to coordinate the seizure of US$300 billion of Russian central-bank assets frozen in G7 financial systems, and use part of this to buy American weapons for Ukraine. This would boost both Europe’s security and America’s economy…

Yes, we can’t forget: will the Trump administration pass on the NATO racket of getting member states to pony up Trump’s target of 5 percent of GDP to buy (mostly) American-made weapons?

It’s much more than most European nations can afford financially or politically and will likely require more authoritarian measures to funnel that money out of the country. Are the European members of Trump International going to say no to military expenditures that will cripple what remains of social programs in their countries? Or is it more likely they will privatize in the name of cost-cutting and organize fire sales for American takeovers? NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is already asking European citizens to continue making “sacrifices” in order to buy more weapons. European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and others are supportive. And Lithuania just became the first EU and NATO country to pledge to meet the 5 percent target starting in 2026.

No matter that all the Western wonder weapons failed in Ukraine, the purchases must go on in the name of defense against the Russian horde.

Where else can Europeans sacrifice more? They must take a tougher line against China, as IISS again points out:

If Russia is America’s problem as well as Europe’s, it follows that China is Europe’s problem as well as America’s. The July 2024 NATO Summit labelled China the ‘decisive enabler’ of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Europe must therefore integrate economics and security into its China policy more effectively. This is overdue for Europe’s own security, but will also assuage US concerns about Europe’s commercial interests in Beijing.

Incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio is a big time believer in such demands:

We need to find out if @EmmanuelMacron speaks for Europe

After his 6 hour meeting in China he told reporters that Europe should create distance with the U.S. & should not get involved in supporting America over China when it comes to Taiwanhttps://t.co/xoFmUGkumH pic.twitter.com/Ps718bXSyn

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) April 9, 2023

And there’s the issue of enriching American energy companies. Again from IISS:

America, for its part, could also replace Europe’s imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), now at a record high, with American LNG supplies. With Trump expected to lift the Biden administration’s ban on new LNG export terminals, this would create synergies of security and prosperity. Going further, Europe could also encourage the US to sell it more oil.

Trump has been clear about this:

European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, who at least is self aware enough to know who she really serves, was quick to come out with suggestions to do just that following Trump’s election. And all her “tools” will continue to be useful if used in service of a more Trump-aligned EU. She has the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive to make business with certain countries more unattractive while simultaneously making US — especially energy — exports more appealing. Ursula also has the Foreign Subsidies Regulation, International Procurement Instrument, an Anti-Coercion Instrument, and the EU Critical Raw Materials Act at her disposal to use in service of the US empire against whomever it requires. As the IISS and Rubio highlight above, following the successful severance of Europe from Russia the next target is Beijing, and Ursula has increasingly used her tools to, as she calls it, “derisk” from China.

Civizational Europe

The EU’s genocide-supporting, anti-free-speech, war-with-russia “center” has been embracing the right kind of “right” for some time. As we highlighted last week, Elon Musk and AfD co-chair Alice Weidel’s X history lesson equating communism with Nazism was right in line with the “rules-based international order’s” longtime efforts to rehabilitate fascists, blame the Russians for WWII, and rewrite history in Ukraine, other former Soviet states, and increasingly in the West itself.

Weidel and Musk also propagated the false claim that Hitler was in fact a communist in a bid to portray privatizations — and presumably sell-offs of European assets to Musk’s billionaire friends — as anti-Hitlerian. Weidel, of all people should know, should know Hitler wasn’t a communist. If he was, one would think that the seed money the AfD received from a reclusive billionaire descendant of prominent Nazis wouldn’t have been availabel as it would have long ago been redistributed by Adolf instead.

This all of course fits in perfectly with a neoliberal EU that has effectively accommodated the right by eliminating effective working-class opposition. That process could now be openly expedited in order to appease the increasing demands of American and European oligarchs who have seen their dream of plundering Russia and Ukraine’s natural resources thwarted.

Perhaps Europe will now lose the pretense of sovereignty and along with it the green veneer and superior-values schtick and embrace what it champions in the former USSR states and has ushered to the altar in the bloc. Researcher Jonas Elvander,, the editor of foreign affairs at the Swedish socialist magazine Flamman and a PhD researcher in history at the European University Institute in Florence, makes the case this is indeed what is happening:

So far, the far right have mostly been sceptical of the EU, but there are no guarantees it will remain so….Since many far-right parties have emerged out of the neoliberal movement, while others are increasingly ready to adopt neoliberal policies in a bargain for power with the centre right, there is little that stops the EU from becoming a vehicle for far-right policies. In many ways we are already seeing the beginnings of such a development today…

The road had already been paved by the Commission’s adoption of a hardline approach to migration and the new Commission portfolio tasked with guarding the “European way of life.”

So it’s more of the same, but with new branding:

One obvious benefit of a marketing rethink from Davos liberalism to a faux nationalism is that it’s challenging to sell and inspire many people to fight for neoliberalism. In the US, the bourgeoisie might fly a Ukrainian flag above their “in this house we believe” yard signs, but they’re not prepared to fight. Nationalism,  religion, and defense of a common European heritage are more useful tools in what’s being pitched as a civilizational battle to come.

And that’s a scary place for Europe — or more accurately working class Europeans — to be.

A recent Washington Post op-ed asked whether Europe will soon be dominated by US corporations in the same way that “the United Fruit Co. once subjugated Honduras.”

That assumes it’s not already at the complete mercy of American billionaires — a presumption that Musk’s recent toying with the continent’s politics likely disproves.  And while today Musk is purportedly after a fair shake for the AfD, justice in the UK, and helping friends in Italy, who’s to say what his underlying economic interests are or what’s being cooked up by his friends in the bowels of the Blob? Maybe tomorrow Musk and Trump decide they’d like to support Europe against Russia the same way the US has been supporting Ukraine. Or maybe they wait a few years until after they’ve bled the cash cow dry.