2:00PM Water Cooler 2/17/2025

By Lambert Strether.

Patient readers, there will be no orts and scraps today, as I must yet again get my arms around the brood of vipers that is DOGE. And I too am glad that comments have returned. Be excellent to each other! –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Brown Thrasher. Guernsey–Fish Ponds and Platte River Trail, Platte, Wyoming, United States. Eight minutes, so start your coffee now! With airplanes in the distance.

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Humphrey’s Executor on the chopping block.
  2. Elon’s (putative) baby momma.
  3. Velvet ropes and the American dream.

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Trump Administration

Theory of the Unitary Executive:

“Trump Asks Supreme Court to Let Him Fire US Agency Head” [Bloomberg]. “President Donald Trump asked the US Supreme Court to let him fire the head of an independent US agency that protects government whistleblowers, seeking high-court intervention for the first time in his campaign to oust federal officials who don’t embrace his views. The filing, submitted Sunday but not yet formally docketed, asks the court to lift a temporary restraining order issued by a federal trial judge in Washington. The order shields Hampton Dellinger from being removed from his position at US Office of Special Counsel for 14 days… In issuing the temporary restraining order on Wednesday, US District Judge Amy Berman Jackson said the firing ‘plainly’ went against US law. The administration didn’t provide any reason, even though federal law says the person in that position could only be removed ‘for inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance in office,’ the judge said…. ‘This language expresses Congress’s clear intent to ensure the independence of the special counsel and insulate his work from being buffeted by the winds of political change,’ Jackson wrote.” • It makes perfect sense that checks and balances apply within the branches of government as well as between then; indeed, that’s how Madison defends a bicameral leglislature in Federal 51; see NC here. Indeed, the avoidance of corruption within the executive itself, as protecting whistleblowers, is an obvious case where checks and balances render the executive more functional not less. (And if you want an example of an all-powerful Being voluntarily limiting his Power, see Gen 9:13-15.) Here is the filing.

“First Test of Trump’s Power to Fire Officials Reaches Supreme Court” [New York Times]. “The [Administration’s] filing amounts to a challenge to a foundational precedent that said Congress can limit the president’s power to fire leaders of independent agencies, a critical issue as Mr. Trump seeks to reshape the federal government through summary terminations…. The administration’s emergency application took aim at a precedent from 1935 that has been critical to government operations. In that case, Humphrey’s Executor v. United States, the court ruled that Congress can shield independent agencies from politics. Some conservative justices have said they would overrule the precedent, arguing that it unconstitutionally infringed the power of the president… In 2020, the Supreme Court seemed to lay the groundwork for overruling that precedent in a case involving the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The law that created the bureau, using language identical to that at issue in Humphrey’s Executor and in Mr. Dellinger’s case, said the president could remove its director only for ‘inefficiency, neglect of duty or malfeasance in office.’ In a 5-to-4 decision, the court struck down that provision, saying it violated the separation of powers and that the president could remove the bureau’s director for any reason. In language that anticipated the court’s decision in July granting Mr. Trump, then a private citizen, substantial immunity from prosecution for conduct during his first term, Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., writing for the majority, said the presidency requires an ‘energetic executive.’ ‘In our constitutional system,’ he wrote in 2020, ‘the executive power belongs to the president, and that power generally includes the ability to supervise and remove the agents who wield executive power in his stead.’ The general reasoning in the chief justice’s opinion left Humphrey’s Executor on life support. Two members of the court — Justices Clarence Thomas and Neil M. Gorsuch — would have pulled the plug right away.” • This issue is moving fast, and if Humphrey’s Executor goes, I wonder how many other cases will be rendered moot.

* * *

“As Trump shakes Justice Department, deeply conservative prosecutors head for exits” [Reuters]. ” President Donald Trump’s drive to shake up the U.S. government drove out a rising star in conservative legal circles: A career federal prosecutor who once clerked for the late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. Danielle Sassoon, tapped to lead the Manhattan federal prosecutor’s office on Trump’s second day in office, quit on Thursday rather than go along with a Justice Department order to drop a criminal corruption case against Democratic New York Mayor Eric Adams. The department ordered the case dropped, citing the city’s approaching November mayoral election and saying that prosecuting Adams could interfere with his ability to assist with a crackdown on immigration, a top Trump priority. Trump has said he did not personally order the charges against Adams dropped. The resignation illustrated the tensions between the traditional U.S. conservative Republican legal movement and Trump’s desire to exert far more direct control of the federal government, challenging standards of prosecutorial independence that have stood for a half century.”

* * *

“RFK’s ‘mom army’ has landed on the shores of the political world” [The Hill]. “Many of these parents understandably believe that, for far too long, politicians in the U.S. and around the world have caved to — or been compromised via donations and promised jobs by — Big Pharma and Big Ag at the direct expense of the health of their children and themselves. And guess what? That has made many of them angry and dismissive of the entrenched elites within government doing the bidding of these special interests. President Donald Trump has proven himself to be an exceptional leader in business and government, mainly because of the people he has surrounded himself with over the years. To be sure, during his first administration, Trump was betrayed by a number of appointees seemingly more loyal to the corrupt system than to our nation. Four years later and with eyes now wide open, Trump is appointing personnel not only loyal to him, but whose very core is dedicated to disrupting the broken and corrupt machine that has dominated D.C. for decades. Of all the disruptors Trump is unleashing upon the entrenched establishment, a strong argument can be made that Kennedy — with his ‘MAHA’ assignment — will be by far the most effective and the fastest to attain provable, quantifiable results.” • Hmm. We’ll see.

DOGE

“Elon Musk’s baby momma Ashley St Clair, 26, launches tirade on billionaire as he re-posts Milo Yiannopoulos” [Daily Mail]. “Conservative influencer Ashley St. Clair, 26, took to X on Friday sharing that Musk, 53, is the father of the child she gave birth to five months ago. ‘Five months ago, I welcomed a baby into the world. Elon Musk is the father. I have not previously disclosed this to protect our child’s privacy and safety, but in recent days it has become clear that tabloid media intends to do so, regardless of the harm it will cause,’ she wrote. On Saturday evening, the Tesla CEO, who has so far not directly acknowledged her announcement, issued a one-word response under Yiannopoulos’s post, simply writing: ‘Whoa.’ In his post, Yiannopoulos claimed that St. Clair ‘plotted for HALF A DECADE to ensnare’ Musk. After seeing his response, St. Clair wasted no time firing back at Musk, stating that she has not heard from him since the news broke. ‘Elon, we have been trying to communicate for the past several days and you have not responded,’ St. Clair wrote, taking aim at Musk’s alleged lack of engagement on the matter. ‘When are you going to reply to us instead of publicly responding to smears from an individual who just posted photos of me in underwear at 15 years old?’ Her reply was then wiped from X within the hour and she has remained silent ever since.” • Ensnared?! (There’s also the Mossad theory, which I don’t have time to run down just now.)

“Ashley St. Clair, influencer who claims to have had Musk’s 13th child, reveals life of secrecy after whirlwind romance with ‘down to earth’ billionaire” [New York Post]. “‘Musk was very funny. He was smart. He was very down to earth. It started with X interactions and he slid into my DM’s. I think it was a meme,’ [St. Clair] recalled.” • I’ve never understood that “slid into my DMs” locution. But indeed!

Democrats en déshabillé

“Dean Phillips: Dems Should Help Find Waste And Fraud Instead Of “Pathetically” Getting “Steamrolled” Trying To Fight Musk” [RealClearPolitics]. “People want the government to work better. They believe that Mr. Musk, one of the most extraordinary entrepreneurs in human history, who does not fail at just about anything, they want him to do this, most Americans. They wanted Trump. They elected him. And I just would hope that my Democratic colleagues might change the strategy and perhaps actually work with Republicans to identify waste and fraud and actually attack that because then they would have some more credibility as it relates to the constitutional issues and the ones that are actually going to hurt human beings, including federal employees who are now being used as pawns. So — but that is how most Americans feel. But Democrats are not projecting that, and I’m deeply concerned about leadership right now.”

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Elite Maleficence

“Stanford must end its complicity in COVID harms” [The Stanford Daily]. Hard to stop quoting this, even if it’s only a student who wrote it:

“It’s unconscionable that Stanford School of Medicine and the Freeman Spogli Institute hosted a conference in October led by architects of the disablement of 100 million people and the preventable deaths of tens of millions more. It’s even worse that University President Jonathan Levin lent institutional support by volunteering to make the opening remarks. It’s worse yet that the apparent success of this conference may have influenced President Donald Trump to tap at least two conference participants for top health posts…. The October conference featured the brain trust behind the ‘Great Barrington’ hypothesis (see also Urgency of Normal, the Norfolk Group and the Brownstone Institute), which proposed in 2020 that societies could most quickly ‘resume life as normal’ by infecting everyone as quickly as possible, under the assumption that herd immunity would end the pandemic. As it turned out, their hypothesis was false — herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is impossible, and almost five years later, the pandemic rages on. Despite the U.S. population supposedly having long attained the benefits of widespread immunity, COVID is still one of the leading causes of death in the U.S., and at least 100,000 Americans are currently getting Long COVID every week.

Conference panelist Dr. Anders Tegnell, the author of Sweden’s heinous 2020 plan to pursue infection at any cost, suggested that the deaths of elders were ‘worth it,’ and then presided over the suffocation deaths of elders deliberately given morphine instead of life-saving oxygen. He also deliberately infected children as human shields for adults, and continuously lied about his strategy to the public. (Contrary to panelist Dr. Vinay Prasad’s assertion that worrying about young children is ‘ludicrous,’ children transmit COVID, get Long COVID at high and probably rising rates and die of COVID too.)

The U.S. equivalent to Tegnell is fellow panelist Dr. Scott Atlas, whose recommendations as Special Advisor to President Donald Trump likely resulted in at least 100,000 preventable deaths and at least a million preventable cases of Long COVID. Atlas’s values and recommendations were so divergent from the University’s that over 100 Stanford Medicine colleagues wrote an open letter in opposition to his unethical and anti-scientific campaign, and the Faculty Senate voted in favor of censure.

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya ’90 M.A. ’90 M.D. ’98 Ph.D. ’00, a fellow Stanford M.D., is the ‘Great Barrington’ coauthor who convened the panelists. Bhattacharya became notorious in 2020 for poorly conducted seroprevalence research and for advocacy in favor of mass infection instead of the precautionary principle. A glance at his tweets reveals widespread misinformation about protective measures and about Long COVID; for instance, he suggested that preventing Long COVID is worse than getting it. Around 100 million people disabled by COVID would beg to differ — myself included.

It’s just like Iraq; everybody who was right is wrong. And the torturers and war criminals make bank, and fill America’s green rooms.

Social Norming

Speaking of the urgency of normal:

* * *

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC February 10 Last week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC February 15 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC February 8

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data February 13: National [6] CDC February 13:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens February 17: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic February 8:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC January 20: Variants[10] CDC January 20

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC January 25: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC January 25:

LEGEND

1) for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Down, nothing new at major hubs.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) A little uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely jumped, but no exponential growth either, Odd.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward trend since, well, Thanksgiving.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

There are no official statistics of interest today.

* * *

Manufacturing: “Trump tours Boeing plane to highlight aircraft maker’s delay in delivering a new Air Force One” [Associated Press]. “President Donald Trump toured a Boeing airplane to check out new hardware and technology features and highlight the aircraft maker’s delay in delivering updated versions of the Air Force One presidential aircraft, the White House said Saturday. Trump visited the 13-year-old private aircraft parked at Palm Beach International Airport. ‘President Trump is touring a new Boeing plane to checkout the new hardware/technology,’ said Steven Cheung, the White House communications director. ‘This highlights the project’s failure to deliver a new Air Force One on time as promised.'”

Manufacturing: “British Airways To Acquire Boeing Gatwick MRO Hangar” [Aviation Week]. “British Airways is set to grow its domestic maintenance presence by acquiring Boeing’s MRO [maintenance, repair and overhaul] operation at London Gatwick Airport…. Under Boeing, the facility holds base maintenance capabilities up to C check level, line maintenance, lease transitions and modifications work on 737NG, 737 MAX, 777 and 787 aircraft. Since 2021, the Gatwick location has also operated passenger-to-freighter conversion lines on 737-800BCF aircraft.” • I had always thought that if Boeing couldn’t survive in the manufacturing business, they could still repair existing planes. Apparently management disagrees?

Manufacturing: “‘I’m giving up my Tesla because of Elon Musk'” [The Telegraph]. In Democrat-voting California, America’s biggest electric car market, Tesla sales fell by 11.6pc last year, according to the state’s New Car Dealers Association. Sales of all other EVs grew by 20pc. Tesla sales in France fell to 1,141 in January, down almost two thirds on the same month a year earlier. In Germany, the EU’s biggest electric car market, they were down 59pc. This could be attributed to slowing electric car interest, were it not for a 38pc drop in Norway, where 19 in 20 cars sold are battery-powered. It is not only sales of new Teslas that have been affected. According to Auto Trader, the average price of a used Tesla has fallen by a fifth in the last year, double the rate at which the average EV has depreciated.”

Tech: This is an absolutely great thread, from back in the day when there actually was such a thing as software engineering, a respected craft:

Tech: “Workday debuts AI agents, with CEO saying they’ll ‘peacefully coexist’ with humans rather than replace them” [Fortune]. “HR software maker Workday is joining the list of tech companies pushing into the hot niche of AI agents, or using AI to complete tasks autonomously. But in an exclusive interview with Fortune, CEO Carl Eschenbach emphasized that AI agents will be able to take on more than just one specific, step-by-step task like writing software code, fraud detection, or invoice processing. Instead, he foresees AI agents as learning and adding new skills over time, ultimately taking on entire roles in a company. In effect, Eschenbach says AI agents will become ‘digital employees’ that will ‘peacefully coexist’ with human ones. He dismissed fears that agents would replace human workers, generally speaking, but acknowledged they would make certain roles obsolete.” And: “Eschenbach told Fortune the AI agent announcement

is unrelated to Workday’s layoffs.”• Of course. The same billionaires who are firing Federal workers right and left assure you AI won’t lead to any jobs lost. Why is it that AIs never replaces management?

Tech: I have written that AI prompts are equivalent to religious incantations; here is a fine example from a tech CEO:

The amazing thing here is that the user has to write an essay to get a result that a search engine — well, if they still worked — would give with a lot less work. And “Be careful to make sure that the name of the trail is correct, that it actually exists, and that the time is correct” is just priceless. Dear Lord.

Tech: Funny thing, an AGI would be a slave, so I guess that’s what the Tech Lords want: slaves. If this is not made up:

“Sorry, Dave, I can’t do that….”

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 44 Fear (previous close: 46 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 38 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Feb 14 at 6:59:56 PM ET.

Class Warfare

“Velvet Ropes Everywhere” [Downtown Josh Brown]. “Think back about the place you grew up in when you were a kid. If it was the suburbs (any suburbs) this will probably be more relatable, but stay with me here – thinking back, you probably had a ‘rich kid’ in your school…. But the thing is, it was one kid. And everyone knew about that kid and it was just ‘yeah, that’s that girl who’s daddy has a mansion.’ Or ‘that’s the kid who drives a Porsche, so what.’ And it wasn’t a big deal. The envy was in check because everyone else around you, all day and everywhere you went, seemed just like you and your family. Normal. You were happy being normal. That world is gone now. In today’s world, the rich kids have multiplied. They’re everywhere. Their parents may or may not have done anything special. When even the most banal businesses like landscaping and dentistry are attracting the attention of buyout firms and private capital, people who seem ‘normal on a Monday’ can end the week looking like Lifestyles of the Rich & Famous. In every county, in every state, every town and in some cases every neighborhood, there are now multi-millionaires and deca-millionaires. The number of households with a net worth over $30 million has absolutely exploded in recent years thanks to the stock market. There are now twice as many centi-millionaires ($100 million) than there were twenty years ago. This means the lone rich kid phenomenon you grew up with has given way to a situation in which there are seemingly wealthy people everywhere you look. You might even be one of them.” • Well, no. I am rich in many things, but not in so-called wealth.

“The American Dream” [Evgenia, Nefarious Russians]. “When we got stuck in LA during the pandemic, our ‘liberal community’ of Los Feliz on next door — the people who who had BLM and ‘immigrants welcome; signs on their lawns — would routinely post photos of POCs walking by or stopping by their house. To them all non-white outsiders were potentially ‘suspicious’, potentially ‘casing’ their house. These lovely humane liberals would profile them, post pictures, and act like undercover cops. On paper they are against police brutality and racial profiling. But if a black person lingers next to their house, they are ready to call the cops pronto. As Jarvis Coker wrote in Running the World, ‘in theory I respect your right to exist, I will kill you if you move next to me.’ This behavior encapsulates the suburban ethos.” •

Climate

“To democratize mechanical ventilation in modest homes: Building Your Own Personal HRV: An Accessible Project” [Nathalie Ventilation, Medium]. “Inspired by the popularity of DIY air purifiers, as seen with the Corsi-Rosenthal movement, I believe it’s time to democratize domestic air exchangers as well. In my view, the future lies in combining purified outdoor air with optimal temperature control. While air purifiers and fresh air through open windows are relatively accessible, a temperature-controlled ventilation system is still too opaque and expensive for many….. From November 2024 to February 2025, I tested my prototypes during the harsh Canadian winter using an anemometer, wattmeter, and sound level meter. The thermal exchange effectively moderated the temperature of the incoming air. The difference was tangible — I could feel it by touch, especially when compared to the icy air from my patio door window.” • Here’s the video:

Hmm. Certainly doesn’t use a lot of electricity. I’m not sure if the temperature increase is worth it, though. And where are the filters? Nevertheless, maybe with the Corsi-Rosenthal box, this is an idea whose time has come. Readers?

Zeitgeist Watch

“Forget male Botox — finance bros are lining up to get penis filler” [Body Modification]. “His clients — typically professional men in their 30s, 40s, and 50s — pick from a menu of highly specific (and patented) enhancement procedures. They can get a thicker girth (‘Girth Enhancement’), a larger scrotum (‘ScroFill’), or to just be more of a shower than a grower (“ShowTox,” which uses Botox to relax muscles in the penis and retain more blood when flaccid). Many of his male clients add on body enhancement services like ‘instant BBLs,’ non-surgical butt lifts using high volumes of filler, he told BI. Bustamante’s experience reflects the recent rise in men getting beauty treatments. Between 2019 and 2022, non-invasive cosmetic procedures like fillers and Botox increased in male patients by 253%. As he sees it, it’s all part of a general trend toward perfection among high-flying men. ‘They’re usually competitive, they want to be the best.'” • Musical interlude.

News of the Wired

False moustaches, ears…. Carry ’em with you at all times:

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From CC:

CC writes: “This petroglyph stone speaks to me so I’ll submit it even though it’s not a plant.”

* * *

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

53 comments

  1. sardonia

    Yay! Comments are back!! So sorry that Yves and Lambert and other mods have been overblown with nonsense, and so glad to have this outstanding forum back up again. Let’s treat it with the respect it deserves. I’m too lame to offer great insights, but I’m happy to celebrate with the occasional song (parody)

    To the tune of “Life During Wartime” from The Talking Heads

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0DpBnUznd0

    Heard of a blog that’s, loaded with info
    Packed up and ready to go
    Outstanding links and, so many comments
    Written by folks in The Know

    The sound of trolling, off in the distance
    Started to litter this space
    Lots of emotion, fury and thunder
    Opinions lacking in grace

    This ain’t no Reddit! This ain’t no Twitter!
    The mods ain’t foolin’ around
    No Zero Hedge or, Daily Kos trollings
    They ain’t got time for that now.

    Transmit a message, with thought and substance
    And facts to back up your views
    That gets a welcome, but try and s***-post,
    You’re gone like yesterdays’ news

    There’s lotsa blogs where, you can be stupid
    Argue with morons and bots
    Parroting thoughts that, you didn’t think up,
    Wasting gazillions of watts

    Mods here have had it, such bad behavior,
    Folks have just pushed them too far
    So let’s be grateful, for what they offer,
    And don’t forget the tip jar.

    This ain’t no Reddit! This ain’t no Twitter!
    The mods ain’t foolin’ around
    No Zero Hedge or, Daily Kos trollings
    They ain’t got time for that now….

    Reply
    1. griffen

      This was indeed great, nicely done. I don’t really enjoy or closely follow all of their music, but I do find a few of them to be memorable and dare to suggest it, pop music classics on the lyric side.

      “I’ve got some peanut butter….to last a couple of days…”

      Reply
  2. JBird4049

    >>>for instance, he suggested that preventing Long COVID is worse than getting it.

    As someone who got COVID at least twice and each time spent half a year struggling to be able to walk, talk, and/or breathe at the same time, I just have to ask just how he got this interesting opinion?

    Reply
  3. IM Doc

    Lambert – I would like to comment on two things at once – both of which you highlighted above – and both of which have to do with “sliding things in”.

    1) I have my share of squillionaires as patients – and most of them are men. It is the rule and not the exception that when they have kids – there is no sliding anything in. It is all IVF. I find this fascinating – but not unexpected. Unfortunately, with many of these people, the IVF comes with genetic screening. I will not go into the absolute nightmares I have about this. There are very good moral reasons that I did not even consider fertility medicine as a career choice.

    2) With regard to the implants. I can confirm this too is a “big” thing among that group of men. What many of them do not realize until too late is that most women are not so happy with the pain and discomfort involved in servicing the squillionaire after this is done. It is quite alarming to both partners actually – and this is never discussed with these people prior to the procedures. In these cases, “sliding in” is not as easy as they think.

    Just my two cents as a primary care doctor for men – have fun with the equipment God gave you and enjoy every minute while it lasts – you will not be 25 for the rest of your life. Trying to replicate this as a 50 year old always causes all kinds of unforeseen issues. The plastic surgeons never really do informed consent.

    Reply
    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > It is all IVF

      I have read the same of Elon and his various baby mommas. These nutjobs really do believe they’re building a superior race, don’t they? No wonder eugenics is a thing. Clean out the lower orders.

      > implants

      The connection to Elon’s rocket is a little too on-the-nose. These clowns have all the money in the world, and they use it to buy bigger, er, equipment (as opposed to, say, donating to the Metropolitan Museum or building Carnegie Libraries).

      Reply
      1. Michaelmas

        IM Doc: Unfortunately, with many of these people, the IVF comes with genetic screening.

        The genetic screening is the whole point of the IVF in many cases, especially for getting the best sperm samples, then massaging them and presenting them in their best condition (so to speak). Just in case one of you gentlemen wasn’t clear on that.

        Flagship Pioneering, the Boston-Cambridge-based biotech VC firm, that created Moderna in fact had a company called Ohana, whose CEO I recall telling me circa 2018-19 that in vitro gametogenesis (IVG) was yesterday’s news and Sperm was the New Frontier.

        Flagship discontinued Ohana, as I recall, as the Brave New World vibes were too much potential bad PR once Moderna got big. Here’s a news piece with the basic pitch, though —

        https://biotech-today.com/flagships-ohana-biosciences-debuts-with-sperm-focused-fertility-platform/

        Flagship Pioneering has debuted a new reproductive health company focusing on sperm rather than egg biology with goals of increasing fertility rates, reducing pregnancy complications and delivering 1ew methods of contraception.

        Ohana Biosciences aims to reduce the number of costly and emotionally trying cycles required for
        successful in vitro fertilization, in part through sperm enhancement treatments delivered ex vivo.

        At the same time, the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company hopes to address the transmission
        of inherited diseases and developmental disorders–as well as complications such as miscarriage,
        premature birth, preeclampsia andestational diabetes–by separating out sperm with damaged
        DNA and disease-linked alleles through cell profiling, sequencing and imaging.

        ‘As parental age increases and demographics shift, we face a growing global crisis in reproductive health, and there’s an urgent need to advance science that can tackle growing rates of infertility, inherited disease and pregnancy complications,” Flagship CEO and Ohana co-founder Noubar Afeyan, Ph.D., said in a statement.….

        And so on.

        Maybe I’ve been around this stuff too long. But I have to say: –
        [1] R&D into these reproductive technologies is at least as advanced in places in China and Asia;
        [2] Thus, this is just another instance of Gibson’s observation: “The Future is Here, It’s Just Unevenly Distributed.” It may seem strange and disgusting to you guys, but it’s the New Normal in some circles. I know a few couples who’ve done it;
        [3] And finally there’s a lot wrong with a few of these folks. Both Thiel and Musk, for instance, are borderline autistic in my estimation; I’m sure you guys would rather they didn’t produce progeny at all, but if they’re going to, it would best if their children were less defective — if only for their own sake — than their parents

        Reply
      2. ambrit

        Bad old Epstein was purportedly planning to “upgrade” the Terran human gene pool by ‘producing’ myriads of Baby Epsteins.
        See: https://www.livescience.com/66072-jeffrey-epstein-dna-eugenics.html
        “Accused sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein toyed with an unorthodox plan for shaping the future of the human race: He imagined impregnating as many as 20 women at a time at his New Mexico ranch, distributing his DNA for the betterment of our species, The New York Times reported today (July 31).”
        It seems that “Ubermenschen” need to “Uber” in more ways than one.

        Reply
        1. Jorge

          Maria Muldaur’s version was a mid-70’s counterculture hit. I remember a radio DJ attempting to convince us that the title was “It Ain’t The Heat, It’s The Motion”.

          Reply
    2. Randall Flagg

      Great movie on this subject of genetic engineering, or eugenics, Gattaca, from 1997. The future is now…

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gattaca

      MC and Watercooler, Thank you for opening the comments. I learn so much, or at least have my thinking challenged or changed for the better, by so many that comment here.

      Reply
    3. Hepativore

      Not sure where to put this observation, but now the millionaires are a lot more likely to live in separate neighborhoods entirely. Decades ago, you might have seen a few rich kids in your school, but now they are much more likely to be sent to expensive private schools rather than public schools at all, and the rich now often live in wealthy parts of town or in gated communities where the housing costs bar anybody moving to the area who doesn’t have a net worth of several million.

      This is why the wealthy seem to act like they live in a bubble as they literally segregate both themselves and their children away from people who do not belong to their own economic class.

      Reply
      1. Jen

        Or if their town has high quality public schools they will respond with screeching aghastitude at an mention of affordable housing. It’s fine if a bunch of old farts move out of town or kick the bucket and families with kids buy the homes they used to occupy, but heaven fore-fend that you suggest 6 to 10 new housing units for lower income residents. OMG! Kids! They’ll bring kids! To our school system! Can’t have that!!!

        Meanwhile our school taxes are going through the roof due to the infrastructure we are trying to support with declining enrollment.

        Reply
      2. Michaelmas

        Interestingly, the wealthy also strictly ration their kids’ screen time and social media use, in my experience.

        For instance, Eton in the UK now has these strict policies —

        Cell Phone Use:
        Smartphone Ban for Year 9 Pupils: Pupils (aged 13-14) are banned from bringing smartphones to school (and it’s a boarding school so they live this way). Instead, they’re issued Nokia “brick” phones that can only make calls and send texts.

        Device Hand-In: Students in their first three years at Eton are required to hand in their electronic devices at night.

        Reply
        1. IM Doc

          FYI – all of the things you discussed in your comment above – are exactly what I was referring to as nightmares. I am trying my best to not have word explosions – and I at times do not elucidate fully what I mean.

          And yes, we are surrounded in our neighborhoods by tech employees, CEOs and squillionaires. The use of any kind of screens by kids is really frowned upon – the peer pressure with our kids is to be out in nature, playing sports, etc – I very much am OK with that – but I get depressed because I know this is not the case in the big city from whence we came – and I suspect everywhere else.

          They make their livings off this stuff – promulgating it to all our kids – but their own kids are strictly forbidden to touch it.

          I wonder why?

          Reply
  4. griffen

    Much kudos for linking to the above article by Josh Brown, he is one of the more interesting persons what frequently guests on different CNBC segments. Most often he’ll appear few times per week on the midday feature between 12 to 1pm Eastern. I tend to highly agree, and one point in particular is how much wealth was generated over the past decade plus…the game was already afoot long before Mr. Trump descended down that escalator. Also….the Holder doctrine didn’t hurt much.

    Sorry for those not inclined to follow the ponies but the casino is typically open, however today it is closed for the Presidents Day weekend. Or…just include also those lazy banks who wish to close for rando three day weekend…\sarc

    Reply
  5. Pumpkin Paul

    Just been on X and apparently the author had made a typo and the correct answer is 1

    https://x.com/ChadNauseam/status/1890889465322786878

    ” That picture is from iOS calculator.

    Notice anything?

    It’s wrong.

    (10^100) + 1 − (10^100) is 0, not 1.”

    Android gets it right. And the story for how is absolutely insane. pic.twitter.com/6QvVRng1Dk

    — Nauseam (@ChadNauseam) February 15, 2025

    Reply
  6. Lambert Strether Post author

    Adding, I keep giving this advice, but let me give it again: So far, I haven’t heard anything about DOGE attacking passport offices. If you have a passport, you have options you would not otherwise have. Get one! (And for those you are responsible for, too, if any).

    Reply
  7. Steve H.

    > To democratize mechanical ventilation in modest homes: Building Your Own Personal HRV: An Accessible Project” [Nathalie Ventilation, Medium].

    >> I’m not sure if the temperature increase is worth it, though.

    Oh yes. Every degree of heat retained is hard-won. The last meeting at Opossum House the temperature was fine but the CO2 was > 1500. Some claim cognitive issues at that level, but they wouldn’t open a window, given the cats. Filters do nothing for CO2, nor for radon.

    >> And where are the filters?

    The embedded video appears to be a prototype. The article links to a materials spreadsheet which has a photo of a more robust construction, and you can see the filter in a protruding vent.

    Reply
  8. Sub-Boreal

    I’d like to celebrate the return of commenting by sharing a Feb. 15th posting by University of Toronto philosopher Joseph Heath: “Observations on the U.S. constitutional crisis”. I found this helpful in providing some context for the current dysfunction. It’s tightly written, so it’s difficult to make a selection that stands on its own, but here are two representative samples.

    Canada is governed by a norm of parliamentary supremacy, which means that regardless of what sort of question or conflict arises, ultimately any issue can be settled by a vote of parliament. This feature of our system was inherited from Britain, where legislative supremacy is a constitutional convention. (This convention was preserved in our country, in the transition to a written constitution, through the introduction of the notwithstanding clause into the Constitution Act of 1982.)

    By contrast, France is governed by a norm of executive supremacy. (For a pretty good explanation of how this works, along with a defence of the practice, see this book by Pierre Rosanvallon.) This is reflected most clearly in the fact that the French President, who is the head of the executive branch, appoints the Prime Minister. There are mechanisms through which the legislature can contest this, but so far the convention of deference to presidential power has prevailed.

    The U.S., by contrast, has evolved into a system governed by the norm of judicial supremacy, with the Supreme Court acting as the ultimate authority over legislative and executive decisions. It is important to emphasize that this is also a constitutional convention; it is not part of their written constitution. (This is an important point: the fact that a country has a written constitution doesn’t mean that it doesn’t also have an unwritten constitution, or that the former is more important than the latter.)

    The key thing to recognize is that Trump is challenging a constitutional convention. If successful, his actions may create a permanent realignment of power between the branches of government in the U.S. The fundamental problem, I should note, is that the U.S. has a completely dysfunctional legislature. Since power abhors a vacuum, the rise of judicial power in the 20th century was driven by this legislative weakness. People wanted certain outcomes, and since Congress was unable to deliver, they were happy to have those outcomes imposed by the courts. But judicial supremacy has a number of pathological effects on government, including a near-complete disregard for questions of cost and efficiency. The current play by the Trump administration to expand executive power is a response to both of these issues — the absence of an effective legislature and the accumulated inefficiencies of judicial rule.

    All of this seems likely to further exacerbate the tragedy of the Democratic Party in America, which has basically painted itself into a corner on these issues. Democrats are convinced that many of the problems faced by Americans can only be resolved through an expanding the role for the public sector. They have trouble convincing Americans of this, however, because the U.S. public sector is supremely incompetent when it comes to carrying out even simple tasks. The reason that the U.S. public sector is so incompetent is that the executive branch is shackled by accountability relations, both to the public and to the courts, that are inconsistent with efficient public administration. The only way to solve these problems is to grant more discretionary power to the “administrative state,” which is to say, the executive. Democrats, however, are not willing to do this, because they are too afraid of what Republicans would do with unshackled executive power.

    Reply
    1. JBird4049

      I agree with much of this as under the Constitution Congress is supposed to be first among equals of the three branches of government. Our system was designed to have a legislature that actively oversaw the entire government, and could override both the executive and judicial branches if needed. However, being dutiful can be hard work and it exposes politicians to attack either by their opponents or such as the oligarchs. It is much easier to only pretend to be working especially as the more powerful interests usually do not want any interference in their activities.

      And this is why the executive and legislative branches are both over and underfunded. Congress eliminated much (most?) of the legislative staff and supporting agencies that enabled it to function and many agencies such as the FDA are underfunded and partially dependent on the same industries that they regulate for resources. However, the military and security agencies are overly funded and under supervised.

      If Congress restored the funding it used to give itself enough support staff including researchers and do the same with the various agencies such as the National Park Service, which were already underfunded before DOGE, then the administrative state would be effective, or at least much less dysfunctional. If Congress would also actively supervise the government as it used to do, any problems would likely be dealt with before they became too serious, which would include an overly powerful president, but this requires constant work and political exposure.

      Between the feckless Democrats and the government hating Republicans, both mostly playacting, there will be a continuing decline in the government’s capabilities. Joy.

      Reply
    2. GramSci

      «The fundamental problem, I should note, is that the U.S. has a completely dysfunctional legislature.»

      I think not. The legislature holds the power of the purse. It is therefore the legislature, especially the Senate that sets policy.

      Reply
      1. jsn

        There is a difference between nominal powers at ones disposal and the proclivity to use them.

        Our Congress Critters are selected through a square dance of bribery solicitation.

        They, even the Democrats, have the power to stop all this dead in its tracks with the power you mention. I believe they keep that power with their powder. It’s dry, somewhere, unseen since the Johnson Administration. Any use of it would seriously compromise their future income prospects.

        Reply
        1. JBird4049

          I would say that Congress was semi competent or functioning into the Carter Administration as the active imposition of neoliberalism, which is a cause of its failure, started with the Powell Memorandum and took several years to really get going. This is also when the gutting of campaign finance regulations started along with the whole money is speech got going. It supercharged corruption’s growth. It is probably not accidental that the destruction of the New Deal Coalition that accelerated while President Reagan was in office and completed by the Clintons using their slimy DLC (Democratic Leadership Council) matched the decline of Congress.

          Reply
          1. jsn

            Agreed, I would add that The Reagan Administration brought European CIA operations home, I see it as a Mob takeover of the US Government by the US Chamber of Commerce wing of the Mob, the silent backers of Mont Pelerin and Lewis Powell.

            Reply
  9. Lambert Strether Post author

    Missed this one:

    “Elon Musk’s X blocks links to Signal, the encrypted messaging service” [Disruptionist]. The deck: “Signal has been a primary method of communication for federal workers looking to blow the whistle on DOGE.” Seems odd. What about free speech?

    Reply
  10. Gulag

    When considering all of the legal issues around executive power, it may be important to consider that one key aspect of our constitution is its minimalist nature.

    Interpreters from John Marshall onwards have noted that the Constitution is replete with vacuous phrases like the “legislative,” “executive,” and “judicial” power clauses (Article One, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution) which nowhere spell out the full extent of the content or boundaries of these different forms of power.

    In addition, another zone of ambiguity in the Constitution is that the separation of powers, checks and balances, and federalism are nowhere stated. This state of affairs seems to invite and even prefigure a redrawing of the boundaries between these modes for exercising power in the light of evolving historical circumstances and the pressure of immediate events.

    It may be the genius of James Madison that he chose the path of “enactment,” rather than “overt statement,” when communicating these three central constitutional concepts.

    Its appears that the outcome of such maneuvers by Madison was to render as fluid as possible the availability of authority and power that can be invoked by any existing branch of government.

    Maybe it is this very absence and emptiness of our constitution that has, so far, enabled it and us to negotiate effective transitions across the whole spectrum of political time and to survive from generation to generation.

    For more detail see Aryeh Botwinick, “Epistemological Skepticism, Textual Skepticism, and the Role of the Constitution,” Telos (Winter, 2019).

    Reply
  11. LawnDart

    Re; Syndemics

    Not really new information to any regular readers here, thanks to your efforts, Lambert, but this could be of help– a short something one could pass along to others… (after reading about squillionaires and plumbing modifications, I am having second-thoughts about the phrasing of this):

    What is Long COVID?
    A Beginner’s Guide

    https://www.thegauntlet.news/p/what-is-long-covid

    Reply
  12. Jason Boxman

    So I’ve been giving it consideration lately, and I find this particularly puzzling:

    We goose up our factory animals with antibiotics so they grow big and heathy. We goose up our crops with pesticides so that they grow big and healthy.

    We sicken our children with repeat infections of pathogens, consider this normal — indeed, healthy and very very necessary.

    Make it make sense. This year is gonna be so lit!

    Reply
  13. IM Doc

    And just another FYI – over the past 2 weeks or so, there has been a literal explosion in flu cases where I am. I understand the entire country is having issues. Thankfully, unlike COVID, there appears to be at least some reporting of this online from the federal agencies. I am back to receiving frequent informative emails – which has not been the case with COVID for years. FYI – in the email is a discussion of a HUMAN BIRD FLU victim in rural Wyoming – who has a chicken flock and all her chickens died. She is apparently not doing well at all, but also according to the report has multiple grave coexisting conditions, meaning she would not do well regardless.

    The current explosion across the country is NOT BIRD FLU – this is seasonal influenza. It is really making people sick. The flu shots seem to be of little help this year. I admitted 5 to the hospital this weekend. So far no deaths. We are starting to settle into the pattern of 2009. I hope not, but that is the situation.

    Reply
    1. sardonia

      If only there was a way to help prevent people from spreading airborne viruses to one another in crowded indoor spaces.

      Maybe one day we’ll have an app for that….

      Reply
      1. Acacia

        How about an Aranet 4, which has a pretty nice app, and then try to mitigate the high CO2 (e,g. Open windows) or avoid the space entirely ?

        Reply
    2. Jason Boxman

      There was an interesting Twitter thread today, where someone posited that perhaps reassortment has taken place between the current circulating strains and the not-yet human H5N1, possibly conferring some advantages to the human strains circulating lately. Who knows if that is the case, but we do know flu mutates from reassortment, and that this is a real risk.

      Reply
    3. johnnyme

      Here is the official statement from the Wyoming Department of Health:

      Wyoming’s First Human Bird Flu Case Confirmed

      Wyoming’s first case of H5N1 avian influenza in a human has been confirmed in a Platte County older adult, according to the Wyoming Department of Health (WDH). The woman represents the third confirmed hospitalization related to H5N1 in the United States.

      “While this is a significant development as bird flu activity is monitored in Wyoming and across the country, it is not something we believe requires a high level of concern among most Wyoming residents,” said Dr. Alexia Harrist, state health officer and state epidemiologist with the Wyoming Department of Health.

      Harrist said the woman is hospitalized in another state, has health conditions that can make people more vulnerable to illness, and was likely exposed to the virus through direct contact with an infected poultry flock at her home. H5N1 has been known to be infecting wild birds in Wyoming for some time now with the currently circulating virus spreading nationally since 2022. Infections among poultry and dairy cattle have also occurred previously in Wyoming.

      Reply
    4. Trogg

      Thank you for sharing, Doc. I have been curious about how protective this year’s flu shot is. Anecdata: I didn’t get the shot. I was sick for multiple days with a fever that lingered. Wife got the shot, and didn’t catch flu. I was wondering if this was typical.

      Reply
  14. The Rev Kev

    “From the Community | Stanford must end its complicity in COVID harms”

    They had Anders Tegnell there as well? Why am I not surprised. These people have had their idea of herd immunity proven catastrophically wrong and the receipts are in – in the form of hundreds of thousands of dead and millions more crippled by long Covid which is increasing daily. And yet Stanford continues to platform them. You wonder what would happen if RFK jr eventually turns his attention to that sorry institution. I could see that on my bingo card very easily over the next four years as they have become a vector of Covid misinformation.

    As for Be excellent to each other, Bill & Ted heartily agree.

    Reply
  15. B24S

    Nice ferns and leaves. And nice rock!

    I don’t see any petroglyphs, but it reminds me of the woods I grew up in, so it’s a winner in my book. My wife says it looks like a bat’s head…

    Reply
  16. basket weaver

    in the ‘sliding into DMs’ phrase DM stands for direct messaging . the current thing to do when you like someone and want to pursue her is to find her social media account, then send a friend request, and between that and the first message you gather up the courage (or wait for the opportunity) to actually start talking . then when she’s messaged you back you’ve successfully slided into DMs lol . it’s lingo from millennials i think but my peer group uses it too ^_^

    Reply
    1. TTT

      Because of my age…mid sixties, and location…UK, DMs will always be an abbreviation of “Doctor Martens” boots, into which no Elon would ever be allowed to slide!

      Reply
  17. Jason Boxman

    This election confirms that

    The Democrat party is for
    – fundraising grifting
    – affirming PMC class moral superiority
    – preventing any leftist programs from being realized

    That is all. Like. Literally. They lined up on their knees to congratulate Trump on victory. Clearly didn’t believe he’d carry out this program. And have no plan to respond to it. Lack even the capacity. See above list.

    Reply
  18. upstater

    Southwest Airlines is laying off 15% of its salaried workforce, in response to “activist” Elliott Management. Gotta love how they’re doing it… the CEO sends an email that reads:

    …Beginning at 6 p.m. today, the main Headquarters building (HDK) will be closed, and Noncontract Employees who work at the Headquarters Campus and aren’t required to be on campus for operational or training purposes will be instructed to work remotely…

    Tomorrow morning, Noncontract Employees will receive appointments for virtual meetings in which they will be given more information about their employment status. Most Employees impacted will no longer work for the Company but will remain employed by Southwest until late April. During this time, impacted Employees will continue to receive salary, benefits, and a bonus (if eligible), as well as resources to help answer questions and prepare for the future.

    I know this will be hard, but we will get through it together.

    They don’t want gun-toting Texans coming to the office. They’re probably cutting the IT staff that is re-writing their work scheduling system that caused the meltdown during Christmas 2022, stranding hundreds of thousands.

    Reply
  19. AG

    re: German election polling
    btw these are the latest numbers via Overton-Magazin:

    “We estimate the CDU/CSU to be at 30 percent (29-32 percent). The AfD follows with 20.5 percent (19-22 percent). The SPD could reach 15.5 percent (12.5-17 percent). This is where the uncertainty is greatest. The Greens are at 14 percent (11-14 percent). There have been hardly any major deviations on average for these four parties recently.

    This is very different for the three small parties that have to fight to get into the new Bundestag. The Left has improved significantly by 1.5 percentage points to 5.7 percent (4-7 percent). The probability of remaining in the Bundestag is around 80 percent. The majority of the BSW can no longer stay above the 5 percent mark and is currently at 4.5 percent (4-6.5 percent). The probability of success is therefore a good 30 percent. The FDP has the worst cards. It remains at 4 percent (3-5 percent) with a probability of success of 10 percent. The others, which include all the other small parties, are estimated at 5.8 percent (4.5-8.5 percent), although there is considerable uncertainty. Compared to the last Bundestag election, far fewer small parties are running because the time limit for submitting the legally required supporting signatures has been greatly shortened.”

    Their final prognosis 1-2 days before election day will be here:
    https://x.com/ProfWalterMohr?mx=2
    (I can´t read it since I have no X.)

    Reply

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