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2:00PM Water Cooler 2/19/2025

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By Lambert Strether.

Bird Song of the Day

Brown Thrasher, Cherry, Nebraska, United States. “Valentine National Wildlife Refuge – Little Hay Road Wildlife Drive. About 4.5 km east and south from the intersection with State Spur 16b. Marsh on one side, sand hills on the other. About 200 m from open water. ID’d by Sight & Sound; ID confidence 100%.” There is a nice counterpoint from the march: maybe insects, maybe frogs.

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In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Court filing: DOGE website claims another victim.
  2. Myopia epidemic: literally!
  3. Pseudo-science in machine learning.

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Trump Administration

Trump caves to The Blob:

Trump erases the Maidan Coup, hence Nuland, her cookies, and all the spook scheming that laid the groundwork for the war. (If I’m right, USAID will be the last axe swung at The Blob, and that was driven by (a) conservative irritable mental gestures on foreign aid and (b) programs that looked like they were designed by bleeding heart liberals or, worse, DEI. Note that in the now-forgotten USAID imbroglio, nobody who was anybody mentioned the role of USAID as a CIA cutout. And Trump just closed the door on that.

“Sweeping safety-net cuts have GOP centrists questioning Johnson’s budget” [Politico]. “Johnson’s most immediate problem comes from swing-district Republicans who believe that the steep spending cuts Johnson wants across Medicaid, food assistance and other safety-net programs for low-income Americans could cost them their seats — and Johnson his razor-thin GOP majority. ‘I don’t know where they’re going to get the cuts,’ said Rep. David Valadao, who represents a heavily Democratic district in central California, as he left the Capitol on Thursday. The House Budget Committee cleared the fiscal blueprint for the massive policy bill on a party-line vote late Thursday night, and Johnson intends to bring it to the floor when the House returns from recess later this month. But with a two-vote majority, Johnson has virtually no room for error. And opposition from members like Valadao could force him and committee chairs to go back to the drawing board.” • Who wants to bet some Democrat centrists will help out Johnson? Commentary:

“Ensuring Accountability for All Agencies” [Whitehouse.gov]. The long-awaited unitary executive, which includes the following interesting section:

We’d all been anticipating the demise of Humphrey’s Executor; but Marbury vs. Madison?

One of the occasional pieces of good news:

I thought Bessent was supposed to be this low-key, stable, smart “safe pair of hands” at Treasury. Then he hands the keys to the DOGEbags. Then this:

OK, OK, who doesn’t love a little pandering? But from the Secretary of the Treasury? Here’s another one–

“Bessent: Trump “Could Win The Nobel Peace Prize” For His Plan To Rebuild Ukraine, If It Were Fairly Awarded” [RealClearPolitcs]. • This is bizarre. Did somebody leave a horse’s head in his bed?

DOGE

“DOGE Claimed It Saved $8 Billion in One Contract. It Was Actually $8 Million” [New York Times]. And the deck: “The biggest single line item on the website of Elon Musk’s cost-cutting team included a big error.” That darn website! Who could have known ***cough*** it would have included a massive error? “The DOGE website initially included a screenshot from the federal contracting database showing that the contract’s value was $8 million, even as the DOGE site listed $8 billion in savings. On Tuesday night, around the time this article was published, DOGE removed the screenshot that showed the mismatch, but continued to claim $8 billion in savings. It added a link to the original, incorrect version of the listing showing an $8 billion value. By Wednesday morning, DOGE had updated its list to show $8 million in savings, though it did not acknowledge the error or explain how it might affect its calculation of total money saved, which remained unchanged. A loss of $8 billion in savings would represent nearly 15 percent of the total savings claimed by DOGE.” • There’s already been a massive cloud of dust raised around this:

But the obvious point to me seems to be this: Why isn’t the DOGE website put on git, so we can track changes and who’s responsible for them? The DOGEbags are suppposed to be “supergeniuses,” per Co-President Trump, so they must have thought of this. So why didn’t they do it?

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“Tens of millions of dead people aren’t getting Social Security checks, despite Trump and Musk claims” [Associated Press]. “The Trump administration is falsely claiming that tens of millions of dead people over 100 years old are receiving Social Security payments. Over the past few days, President Donald Trump and billionaire adviser Elon Musk have said on social media and in press briefings that people who are 100, 200 and even 300 years old are improperly getting benefits — a ‘HUGE problem,’ Musk wrote, as his Department of Government Efficiency digs into federal agencies to root out waste, fraud and abuse…. Part of the confusion [deliberate obfuscation] comes from Social Security’s software system based on the COBOL programming language, which has a lack of date type. This means that some entries with missing or incomplete birthdates will default to a reference point of more than 150 years ago.” NOTE See Water Cooler yesterday and the extremely useful comments; this is plausible, but not proven to be correct. More: “The news organization WIRED first reported on the use of COBOL programming language at the Social Security Administration. Additionally, a series of reports from the Social Security Administration’s inspector general in March 2023 and July 2024 state that the agency has not established a new system to properly annotate death information in its database, which included roughly 18.9 million Social Security numbers of people born in 1920 or earlier but were not marked as deceased. This does not mean, however, that these individuals were receiving benefits. The agency decided not to update the database because of the cost to do so, which would run upward of $9 million. A July 2023 Social Security OIG report states that ‘almost none of the numberholders discussed in the report currently receive SSA payments.’ And, as of September 2015, the agency automatically stops payments to people who are older than 115 years old. Chuck Blahous, a senior research strategist at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, said, ‘Two cheers for Elon Musk if he can root out and put a stop to improper payments.’ But to pick the places in the federal government where error rates are high, ‘Social Security would be near the bottom of the list, not near the top,’ Blahous said.” • The Mercatus Center isn’t exactly a liberal hotbed, so if they say Elon’s full of it, he is. One can only wonder why the focus on Social Security; I’m with Cheese on this one. Elon is just waving some screen dumps some random DOGEbag gave him and screaming fraud. But whoever made the screen dumps didn’t understand the data, and so the screen dumps are useless (unless their sole purpose be that Elon can wave them around, not unlikely). It takes a level of effort to understand these systems — both business logic and programming — and DOGE hasn’t had the time, the skills, the headcount, or, dare I say, the inclination to do it. A useful comment from Reddit:

I know this story is hard to follow, and the non-technical may be inclined to file it under “He said, she said.” I implore you to file it under “Ghost of Kiev” because Elon lies shamelessly and constantly. It doesn’t help matters that the sort of data analysts who understand these systems tend to be careful and slow in their assessments, so Elon and his fan base run rings around them on the Twitter. Say, would any recently terminated employee at Social Security or Treasury like to throw some COBOL over the transom? We’d love to read it, and are experienced at preserving anonymity (from the foreclosure crisis).

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“Elon Musk mulls giving Americans a $5,000 check based on DOGE savings” [Fortune]. “Elon Musk says he ‘will check with the President’ about an idea to issue refund checks from DOGE savings. Those checks could be as much as $5,000 per household if the department hits its $2 trillion savings goal. But there are some major hurdles that could scuttle the idea. Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency task force claims to be slashing the federal budget, which would ease the federal deficit. But now Musk is exploring the idea of using some of that money to send rebate checks to citizens. In a post on Twitter/X Tuesday afternoon, Musk said he would escalate the idea of a ‘DOGE Dividend,’ saying ‘will check with the President.’ The post came in a reply to a suggestion by James Fishback, the CEO and cofounder of right-leaning investment firm Azoria. (The company last year launched an anti-woke ETF that excluded companies that prioritize DEI hiring.) By Fishback’s calculations, if DOGE reaches its target of $2 trillion in savings (a number that includes most of the government’s discretionary spending and which Musk himself has backtracked from in the past month), a 20% cut of that distributed to Americans would work out to $5,000 per household. The checks, he proposes, would be sent after DOGE expires next July. DOGE, on its website, has claimed to create $55 billion in savings so far. Numerous media reports, however, have shown discrepancies in that figure, such as a New York Times story pointing out one claim of an $8 billion savings was only an $8 million one. Additionally, many of the claims made by DOGE include no documentation to back up their savings boasts.” • Of course, President Musk has a ways to go: $55 billion is 2.75% of $2 trillion (it’s like DOGEbags don’t understand that government is big. Nor can they count. Of course, AI can’t count, so that DOGEbags can’t should come as no surprise). NOTE I’m sure there’s a name for this kind of con, where the proposition put to the mark is “I’ll give you $100 now if you’ll give up the rights to your pension later.”

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“USDA says it accidentally fired officials working on bird flu and is now trying to rehire them” [NBC News]. “Although several positions supporting [bird flu efforts] were notified of their terminations over the weekend, we are working to swiftly rectify the situation and rescind those letters,” a USDA spokesperson said in a statement. ‘USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service frontline positions are considered public safety positions, and we are continuing to hire the workforce necessary to ensure the safety and adequate supply of food to fulfill our statutory mission… The error is the latest in the Trump administration’s attempts to rapidly shrink the size of the government by conducting mass firings of federal workers — an effort that is being carried out by tech billionaire Elon Musk and the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency, which is heavily staffed by people who have no experience in government.” • Plot twist: What if — hear me out — the DOGEbags weren’t really supergeniuses at all, but were brain-damaged by repeated Covid infections? And nobody around them in Silicon Valley noticed. For some reason.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Airborne Transmission

As readers know, I’ve never been a fan of UV, partly because of the ick factor, but also because I think a lot of people will stick a blue light in a socket and call it good. However, Far-UVC advocates have been plugging away, and I’m not insensible to the case they’re making:

In addition, what with wildfire smoke and H5N1 being carried along by dust in the breeze, I think my Swiss Cheese Model might need another layer of protection. Have any readers had success with Far-UVC?

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert here: I continue to remain puzzled by the New York City chart: We have a sort of stable state; a plateau, but no exponential rise. I looked at the State, too:

Here we have a modest decrease but (see the blue line) it’s still high-ish compared to the pandemic as a whole. Perhaps some kind epidemiologist in the readership can tell me what’s going on.

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC February 10 Last week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC February 15 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC February 8

Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data February 18: National [6] CDC February 13:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens February 17: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic February 8:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC January 27: Variants[10] CDC January 27

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC January 25: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC January 25:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Down, nothing new at major hubs.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) A little uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely jumped, but no exponential growth either, Odd.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward trend since, well, Thanksgiving.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

Housing: “United States Housing Starts” [Trading Economics]. “Housing starts in the United States slumped 9.8% month-over-month to an annualized 1.366 million in January 2025, down from December’s 10-month high of 1.515 million and missing market forecasts of 1.4 million. Severe snowstorms and frigid temperatures disrupted construction activity, while any potential rebound may be constrained by rising costs from import tariffs and persistently high mortgage rates.”

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Manufacturing: “This New Airbus Jet Is Bad News for Boeing” [Wall Street Journal]. “Airbus has a new jet that’s winning over some of Boeing’s best customers. It also raises the specter of more trouble ahead for the U.S. plane maker. The European company started delivering the new aircraft—the A321XLR—late last year against a backdrop of manufacturing upheaval and financial strain at its American rival. So far the XLR has racked up more than 500 orders, many from airlines looking to replace older Boeing planes. The jet’s success is one of the starkest signs yet of the diverging fortunes of the two companies, with Boeing’s troubles leading to gaps in its product lineup that are now being exploited by Airbus. It is also a warning of a bigger threat looming: While Boeing is strapped for cash, Airbus is increasingly investing in an entirely new generation of aircraft that could shape the duopoly for decades to come. American Airlines and United Airlines have chosen Airbus’s XLR to replace their aging Boeing 757 fleets. Other airlines including Australia’s Qantas have also purchased the XLR—the first time that carrier has ordered one of Airbus’s smaller, narrow-body jets. Central to the XLR’s appeal is a giant fuel tank behind the wings that means the aircraft can carry up to 220 passengers on trips as long as 11 hours. That is far longer than typical narrow-body jets, allowing airlines to open up new direct routes—including across the Atlantic—without needing to sell as many tickets as they would with a bigger, wide-body plane.” • How odd that Boeing’s financial engineers couldn’t come up with the idea of a giant fuel tank…

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 49 Fear (previous close: 48 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 42 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Feb 19 at 3:03:28 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

“The More Senior Your Job Title, the More You Need to Keep a Journal” [Harvard Business Review]. Remember yesterday I ran the recommendation that professionals take notes or keeo a diary? Here is the executive version: “Being a CEO can be a lonely job–there is no obvious person in whom to confide. Keeping a journal can fill that void, by giving a new leader a chance for structured reflection of recent past events and decisions, and mental rehearsal for future ones.” • Totally nothing to do with papering up one’s decision-making process (“Dear Diary, Today I signed off on the MCAS system. It seems crazy, but our engineering staff assures me it’s totally liable, I mean reliable. Also, Mom called.”)

“We’re in a short-sightedness epidemic – and we never saw it coming” [The Telegraph]. Literal. not metaphorical. “The global myopia rate tripled between 1990 and 2023, according to a recent study in the British Journal of Ophthalmology. The World Health Organization predicts that by 2050, half of the world will need glasses and 10 per cent will be high myopic, which carries severe risks of complications and even blindness…. Ocular diseases include cataracts, glaucoma, and the two that cause the experts most concern. One is retinal detachment, which is when vitreous fluid – the jelly inside your eyeballs – begins to leak and pushes the retina away at the back, ‘a bit like a bubble in wallpaper’ as a leaflet from Moorfields Eye Hospital in London helpfully puts it…. Amid a ‘substantial’ increase in retinal detachment surgery, the hospital recently reported a sharp increase in the proportion of myopes undergoing the treatment – from less than 10 per cent in 2012 to more than 40 per cent in 2023 – with the steepest rise among younger patients. ‘If your retina detaches, you lose vision,’ explains Dr Annegret Dahlmann-Noor, the paediatric ophthalmologist who led the Moorfields study. ‘It starts in the periphery and moves towards the centre and if it gets to the point where it affects your central vision, then usually recovery is not complete. We’ve seen some teenagers and people in their early 20s present with retinal detachments. It’s a trend we can see.’ The other condition that ‘really destroys’ your vision, as she puts it, is macular degeneration. This is now the leading cause of blindness in working age people in China….” And: ‘And here there are two factors of particular concern. One is that children are not spending nearly as much time in daylight as they need to. Daylight is thought to stimulate the release of dopamine in the retina which inhibits eyeball growth. Given that we evolved as an outdoor species but now spend around 90 per cent of our lives indoors (that’s more time than the average whale spends underwater by the way) the idea that our eyes are struggling to cope with our low-light interiors isn’t so surprising. The other factor is that children are spending too long engaged in ‘near-work’ ie concentrating on things too close to their face and thus squeezing their eyeballs into the wrong shape from an early age. Since myopia develops while the eyeball is still growing, the crucial window is in childhood. Hence the standard advice for children is known as the 20/20/2 rule: for every 20 minutes of near-work, spend 20 seconds focusing on something in the distance; and most importantly, spend two hours outside each day. Also, go and get your eyes tested.” • Screens are the myopia of the people. The rich keep their children away from screens, so they, at least, will not be going blind.

Photo Book

Sadly, the ravishing black and white tones aren’t really captured on screen:

I “discovered” Kertész, IIRC, in one of those square books with white hardcovers Aperture published; I worked through most of them in a Harvard Square bookstore (now a bank, for pity’s sake. “First” something or other. Never bank at a bank called “First”).

Gallery

Alert reader Lunker Walleye writes: I don’t see the comment box today but wanted to respond to the Bonnard Nanny La Promenade painting.

It is one of four similar paintings on top of a four-panel screen. Here’s a link:

News of the Wired

“The reanimation of pseudoscience in machine learning and its ethical repercussions” [Cell]. From 2024. A must read for the AI space. This caught my eye: “A recent surge of deep learning-based studies have claimed the ability to predict unobservable latent character traits, including homosexuality, political ideology, and criminality, from photographs of human faces or other records of outward appearance, including Alam et al., Chandraprabha et al., Hashemi and Hall, Kabir et al., Kachur et al., Kosinski et al., Mindoro et al., Parde et al., Peterson et al., Mujeeb Rahman and Subashini, Reece and Danforth, Su et al., Tsuchiya et al., Verma et al., Vrskova et al., and Wang and Kosinski. In response, government and industry actors have adapted such methods into technologies deployed on the public in the form of products such as Faception, Hirevue, and Turnitin. The term of art for methods endeavoring to predict character traits from human morphology is ‘physiognomy.’ Research in the physiognomic tradition goes back centuries, and while the methods largely fell out of favor with the downfall of the Third Reich [Ouch!], the prospects of ML have renewed scientific interest in the subject. Much like historical forays into this domain, this new wave of physiognomy, resurrected and yet not, apparently, sufficiently rebranded, has faced harsh criticism on both ethical and epistemic grounds.” • Readable, and worth reading in full.

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From anahuna:

Anahuna writes: “I thought to take this last opportunity to send a plant or two or three. While I delight in the country scenes you’ve been gracing us with, I’m confined to the urban cityscape, and I’ve included one aggressively urban sample from a fence that has since been knocked down to make way for one of the tall new steel-and-glass high-rises. All these emerge, one way or aother, from the streets near the Gowanus Canal.”

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. Material here is Lambert’s, and does not express the views of the Naked Capitalism site. If you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn’t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I’m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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88 comments

  1. IM Doc

    Unless I am really missing the point – always within the realm of the possible – that plantidote is a nice map of the Indian Ocean – but does not really look much like a plant. And the caption does not seem to fit.

    Reply ↓
    1. ambrit

      That yellow triangle seems eerily similar to Madame Bloviotski’s conception of the Kingdom of Dwarka.
      “From the Rift Valley of Ethiopia to the lower Ring of Fire of the Isles of Solomon, all falls under the purview of the Hierophant of Dwarka. There were there many Wonders seen and recorded in the Books of Higher Knowledge. Etc. etc.”
      (An extract from “Proceedings of the Pataphysical Society.”)
      Bloviotski, Argentia: “The Records of the Library of the Horizon of Ra in Giza.” Ephemera Press.
      Also, a Yellow Star at Peking. Shouldn’t that be a Red Star?

      Reply ↓
      1. Michael Fiorillo

        I believe it’s an Ailanthus/Tree of Heaven… they can grow anywhere in the city (literally out of dust collected in rooftop crevices), will swallow chain link fences and can grow to a substantial diameter. I used to fantasize about milling them from the inexhaustible supply the city would provide, but I don’t think they make good lumber.

        Reply ↓
  5. t

    More bad math, nonsense, and desperate maneuvering from Elon Musk, the world’s most globular white boy (globular ranking according to Ed Zitron of Where’s Your Ed At).

    Has anyone found anything that makes sense?

    If the total doesn’t change, surely that means someone is typing them in and there is no data or database, not in the way you or I would define those words.

    Reply ↓
    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > If the total doesn’t change, surely that means someone is typing them in and there is no data or database,

      That is an excellent argument I should have made; probably outsourced, too.

      Why, it’s almost as if the DOGEbags weren’t hired for technical competence…..

      We should take up these errors with DOGE’s boss, if we knew who they are.

      Reply ↓
        1. vao

          There is an error in the HTML of the paragraph where you embedded the link — a missing double-quotation mark; this should correctly be name=”ml”.

          <a name=”ml></a>“The reanimation of pseudoscience in machine learning and its ethical repercussions”[<a href=”https://www.cell.com/patterns/fulltext/S2666-3899(24)00160-0″ target=”_blank”
          rel=”nofollow”>Cell</a>]. From 2024. […]

          Reply ↓
  7. lyman alpha blob

    I don’t think this has been linked to yet – DeJoy on the way out at USPS!

    I do wonder if he got a little push, or he was just so successful at crapifying the post office, which has gotten noticeably worse during his tenure, that he’s now going to cash in somewhere else as a reward.

    I’d like to celebrate a little more, but with the mixed bag of Trump appointees so far, we could wind up with somebody worse, especially since deliberately busting the post office has been a bipartisan effort.

    Reply ↓
    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > DeJoy on the way out at USPS!

      Had to leave that one on the cutting room floor. Sure is odd the Democrats didn’t put their own guy in (just like the NLRB, come to think of it).

      Reply ↓
      1. lyman alpha blob

        Yeah, you’d think they might have had an inkling that DeJoy was considering this. So very odd that they didn’t try to get maybe a pro-labor, pro-Post Office person in there…

        One could theorize that if they did know, they didn’t push the issue because they assumed a Democrat POTUS, much like they did when Obama didn’t push for Garland at SCOTUS when he had the chance in 2016, thinking Clinton would win anyway over Trump. They are the sort of incompetent boobs who would make the same mistake twice.

        Reply ↓
        2. Pat

          Considering they left him in place and made no moves to override disastrous decisions during the entirety of the Biden administration, it is abundantly clear that the destruction of the Post Office and its unionized and vet friendly employee hiring and contracts is a bipartisan goal.

          I can’t remember who pointed out that this is politicians biting their noses off to spite their faces as the renaming post offices is the major accomplishment of most of Congress. But beyond that the devastating effect this will have on rural districts is also going to bite them in the long run.

          Reply ↓
          1. dao

            The site savethepostoffice.com has been covering the slow death of the Post Office for the last couple decades which has accelerated under DeJoy. The site owner has correctly noted little to no pushback from the unions.

            Only in the past year or so has DeJoy finally received pushback from politicians whose districts are being adversely affected by DeJoy’s actions. Ultimately I believe it was this pushback over the last several months that caused him to step down.

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          2. Nikkikat

            The postal service is overseen by the homeland security committee, sad indeed it’s filled by republicans like Rand Paul and democrats the likes of which were corporate whores like Claire McCaskill Bernie Sanders was there, but he was so enamored of Biden that he offered nothing of value.
            Clair thought we should have a letter writing campaign. And encourage letter writing, she just loved writing to her grandmother!

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      2. Nikkikat

        Biden thought he was doing a good job. The postal board was made up of both Republican and democrat participants. The chosen democrats on the board told Biden he was doing a good job. Don’t have a link but read this someplace early on in Biden administration. DeJoy did succeed in cutting postal service to the bone eliminating large sorting centers in the mid west and forcing retirements and not replacing them. However, DeJoy didn’t set out to completely privatize the mail like republicans want
        So they can kill it off.

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  8. t

    Something new: I laughed out loud, more than once, while reading Marie Sapirie’s piece in Tax Notes Today, Will the IRS be the Next Department of Education.

    She used a YMCA theme to discuss the current tax credit-like plans for homeschooling, Hollywood Upstairs Medical School, and Uncle CaveMan’s Dinosaur-Riding Conservstoire of Biblical Math.

    (Also worth mentioning- years before Trump running for office and using the Village People hit for rallies, it was a dance favorite a fundie weddings so fundie they were dry. So dry half of us were drinking “soda” out of cups from the neaby gas station.)

    Reply ↓
    1. Stephen V

      Did not expect to see this in this neighborhood! I consult Taxnotes regularly for professional research. But this?
      Much appreciated.

      Reply ↓
  10. Stephanie

    After seeing Morgan Fairchild pop up in the UV tweet thread I looked her up and apparently her fiancé died of complications from Long Covid. She’s quoted saying “Consider wearing a mask.”

    Reply ↓
  11. DJG, Reality Czar

    Briahna Joy Grey explains it all for you.

    The answer to the last question (after 1:24:00) is, in a sense, a modernized way of saying Gramsci’s “pessimist by intelligence, optimist by will.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuRCdetM9WI

    Joshua Citarella is a good interviewer. If you haven’t watched his interview with Catherine Liu about liberal trauma as stagnation and liberal virtue hoarding, that video also is worth your while.

    Reply ↓
      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        > Have the Dogebags figured out that the Department of Energy is actually the Department of Nukes yet?

        Dunno. Hopefully., somebody’s following them around with a poop bag to clean up the mess.

        Reply ↓
        1. Emma

          I really want to ship them and the Israeli Hilltop Youths to a small island in the middle of the South Atlantic to duke it amongst themselves.

          (Winners get to move to Mars with Elon and the rest of the PayPal Mafia.)

          Reply ↓
    2. Jason Boxman

      What’s fun about all this is Trump is establishing the facts on the ground, so to speak, so whatever the courts decide, and whether Trump reverses course or not from any court ruling, the damage is very much already done. Mission Accomplished!

      That liberal Democrats can’t rouse themselves to do much beyond writing letters and posting on the Twitter is evidence that perhaps they agree with the designs of Trump, if not the approach, norms violating as it is.

      Reply ↓
      1. steppenwolf fetchit

        Perhaps they have spent so many years teaching learned helplessness to eachother and learning it from eachother that this is the best they have and the best they can do. As people.

        ” Is that all you got, George?” Muhammad Ali to George Foreman during the Rumble in the Jungle boxing match.

        “Yes, its all they got.

        So it is up to others.

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    3. chris

      It isn’t.

      But now we have guacamole. And small devices we use to watch cat videos. We also have the capacity to do things our Founders never would have imagined. So our United States is quite different in character from what was envisioned by the early Revolutionaries.

      That is a good thing in quite a few ways. Women and people who don’t own property can have their vote ignored, just like the poor white people who don’t even bother to vote. Black people have gone from being considered 3/5 of a man to 7/5 of all the problems plaguing public budgets. Such amazing progress in almost 250 years! /sarc

      All sarcasm aside, what is happening now is going to hurt a lot of our fellow citizens before it ends. I don’t think there is a way to stop the terrible things our government has been doing without tearing everything down. Congress could help but Congress is asleep. The Senate could help but the Senate is too concerned with making money for Senators. Our elites are fighting each other right now with no interference from the Constitution. I have no idea which group is going to win. I just hope the damage is contained.

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    4. DJG, Reality Czar

      Lambert Strether: Well, I waited till Morning in the Undisclosed Region to check in, and the much-appreciated orts and scraps reminded me of two things:

      Item 1:
      We are up to our eyeballs in the “run government like a business” merda, but your orts reminded me that even a business shouldn’t be run the way a U.S. business is. The Dogematics can’t compile a spreadsheet (or use the table function in Word), they can’t add or subtract, they don’t understand the scope of the work of the departments they are infesting, and now Elon “Undesirable Alien” Musk wants to kite checks to an exploited U.S. populace.

      And the Dog(e)matics will all receive bonuses and access to the sushi bar to be installed at the Social Security Administration offices. What’s the Constitution if you can have free makimono?

      Item 2:
      Meanwhile, on Scott Bessent: Well, one must have “role models.” No matter how incompetent and corrupt. As part of the degradation of gay liberation, we are seeing people fawn over the likes of Peter Thiel, Tim Cook, and Pete “I like trains, but let’s not talk about East Palestine” Buttigieg.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Bessent

      Note his, errrrr, eccentric history of donations to politicians. Or maybe it isn’t eccentric if one considers Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump to be exemplars of the same monoparty.

      As for me, I will stick with Drusilla Foer as a role model.

      Reply ↓
        1. johnnyme

          You found it — the code does not properly handle any cases where subtractive notation is used.

          Apologies for misreading your ask.

          Reply ↓
    2. Lambert Strether Post author

      Thank you, but what we really need is not a toy program, but — and the relevant versions of COBOL may not even have this section — the actual DATA DIVISION used where variables and their datatypes (like dates) are defined. Plus the documentation, of course.

      This would be a very, very basic step for any analyst, requiring no understanding of the business logic. It doesn’t look like the DOGEbags took it (perhaps they sucked up all the code into an AI training set, and the AI hallucinated?)

      Reply ↓
      1. Skk

        I focus on how the data is stored, meaning what sort of database technology, rather than the computer programs used to do the create/ insert, edit, delete. I checked an audit report of SSA contracts in 2013 and they use IBM mainframes. For the database, they use IBMs DB2, a relational database technology.

        All the SSA structured data will be in there. From a data exploration angle, one would scan all the databases, all the tables in each, all the fields in each table, the types of each, the range of values, the frequency of each value, or bucketed frequencies if too many.. That’s a very fundamental part of data exploration. Any anomaly , like 360 year old people should have an explanation. For that you need to know the meaning, the semantics of each field.

        This would come from the entity relationship diagrams, the data dictionary that the database architect, designer, DBA created.

        If the docs are incomplete or out of date, which they often are that’s where the fun starts. I started from looking at the SQL query behind a front end program for, say, displaying information about a person, and map the fields displayed on the screen to the query field, table database. This mapping gives you the meaning of the field as interpreted by the human being looking at the screen. If the database field names don’t match the meaning reasonably, there’s something afoot, often laziness, incompetence ( I’ve seen idiots calling fields AAAAA1, AAAAA2 ) But it could be fraud. Now you get into the realms of forensic computing.

        So anyway, this convo about Cobol isn’t really it IMO.

        By the way I used a very early version of Oracle relational databases in 1982, none of this is new.

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        1. Skk

          The reason I veer away from the Cobol date angle is that part and parcel of using relational databases like SSA using DB2; is the constraints on values in fields, consistency between fields and tables in a database are defined by the database man/woman, the designer, architect, the DBA. Programs can’t override that – the database will return an error and the program has to handle the error.

          And constraints on fields have to be defined. So if a field is defined as holding a date, in DB2, the DB2 minimum value is Jan01 0001. But you’d have a company / application specific minimum value better than that. Or ought to anyway.
          ( A question arises. How does one handle the Buddhas DOB in a DB2 database for an antiquity / archeological application !)

          Reply ↓
          1. Screwball

            This is all over my head, but it makes me wonder. I’m a digit guy so I understand to some extent. I also must ask. We know all this and had years to fix it. By fix it I mean bringing all this legacy data up to date to our current digital world standard?

            We know the problems and have had a long to fix it, yet here we are.

            Reply ↓
            1. Skk

              In my work life I saw these reasons given:
              1. It works… We have enough work keeping up with … Law changes ( HIPPA, SBxxx) , new business take on to take on the extra work to to a new modern architecture.
              2. What’s wrong with it ? IBM always supports the underlying hardware and software and always will.
              3. The risk to the business due to a failure / delays are too high compared to the benefits. They will take little failures, 2 day system downtimes over a mind boggling risk of a total F’up when the migration fails over years and years.

              4. Costs too much. See 1 and 2 and 3.

              My view is the bureaucracy at these huge corps, insurance, healthcare are the ones I know, also govt I guess are highly risk averse and are compensated for that so keep doing it. That old saying “Nobody got fired for buying IBM” is STILl true !

              Sigh. The only way is when an existing company with modern software , in all its guiwes, and a mentality of continuous improvement, in a similar field , that’s successful buys out those mega corps and ditches their computing infrastructure after migrating the data . I have no lived examples of that. What I have experience of is no new insurance company or supplier to an insurance company does it like farmers insurance or AAA or Anthem Still does.

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          2. Acacia

            Adding to Skk’s fine comment: dates in SQL are a little weird in that the exact representation may also depend on the database vendor. E.g., in SQLite, which is really popular now, a date/time may be stored using TEXT, REAL, or INTEGER values. So, this is most likely a database issue more than a COBOL issue.

            And the further point about legacy systems remaining very much legacy also rings true. At a certain point, the original application designers are gone and there is often a kind of “if it ain’t broke, don’t touch it” rule… until and unless some young arrogant types show up, as is happening with the DOGEbags.

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  14. Roger Blakely

    RE: Far UVC light kills airborne pathogens.

    If you had a building with a single air handler on the roof, you could put UV lights in the duct and sanitize the air in the whole building every hour.

    Reply ↓
    1. Acacia

      There are commercial air purifiers that do this (e.g. Daikin), and the UVC is applied inside the unit so there is no ambient exposure that could harm humans. A safety interlock switch ensures this even during maintenance of the unit.

      However, the air is moving through a closed chamber with the UVC power LEDs so it’s unclear to me what percentage of virus particles actually get neutralized.

      Reply ↓
      1. Carbpow

        Years ago during flu season we were told to hang mesh bags containing gel Australian Tea Tree oil in the air handlers to prevent air borne disease on ships. Did they work? I dunno but the ship smelled better with 24/7 aroma therapy.

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    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      Thank you. Nice to see Democrat higher-ups take point on this issue as Elon lays the groundwork to gut Social Security. Oh wait….

      Adding, the Ycombinator link is terrific. What is deadly to the DOGEbags is that the YCombinator is the startup milieu from which they come. The comments make the case that they were not chosen on the basis of technical merit, since nobody chosen on that basis could possibly be making the kind of mistakes they’re making.

      I would say that the DOGEbags are social engineers (“Do I have to call Elon?”) rather than software engineers.

      Reply ↓
      2. flora

        re: “Nice to see Democrat higher-ups take point on this issue as Elon lays the groundwork to gut Social Security. Oh wait….”

        What Dem needs a Grand Bargain and Catfood Commission when AI is available? The uniparty rejoices. / ;)

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  18. Emma

    https://www.reddit.com/r/fednews/ has been pretty good with tracking various DOGE related shenanigans.

    Right now it’s mostly focused on the miseries of the federal workers directly impacted, but it’s looking very bad for anyone who needs to depend on the federal government for anything. Elon seems to really want to turn America into Argentina 2.0.

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  19. Tom Stone

    A lot of these Jobs that Elon’s little Dogies are cutting are among the best jobs available in “Red” States, and also in rural areas of “Blue” States such as California.
    These people are true believers, just like the Red Guards or Pol Pot’s followers and the results will be similar, Societal collapse is a very real possibility and it generally happens slowly, then all at once.
    I think we are past the slowly stage.

    Reply ↓
    1. Daniil Adamov

      I could be wrong, but I don’t think they have the guns, the numbers or the readiness for physical violence (both giving and receiving) that characterised those groups. They can still do enormous damage, of course, in the way of political wrecking crews/disruptive reformers everywhere, but that’s an important difference; it makes them easier to stop (perhaps when Trump gets tired of Musk) and safer to oppose.

      Reply ↓
      1. nyleta

        True, but it is a credit based financial empire and depends on the confidence fairy to endure. Those who should know tag the next bail-out in the $ 10 trillion dollar range , $ 2 trillion at risk in the Treasury trades alone at last September and they are starting to be put in the risk pile now, early days of course but the Fed is hinting today that QT is going to be restrained further after practically stopping already.

        I thought Goldman was mad when they called $ 4 trillion for the GFC but they were right on the credit, no money involved for a long time now.

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  22. upstater

    Labor activism! Unfortunately not railroad or federal workers.

    National Guard deployed to Auburn prison as corrections officer strike continues syracuse.com

    National Guard personnel were deployed Wednesday to the Auburn Correctional Facility as a wildcat strike by corrections officers entered its third day.

    Most NY State prisons are affected. All this follows a January beating death of an inmate in Marcy, NY in which 9 prison guards have been charged (these guys had bodycams and did it anyway! ) and the stabbing of guards in Auburn, contraband and lockdowns elsewhere, stabbing in a guard the county jail in Syracuse.

    Reply ↓
  23. griffen

    Optometry boon , eh I mean epidemic of eye affliction including future instances of either cataracts, glaucoma or for those fortunate few….both at once. Not kidding, first person for me in August 2022. For years I just settled with an outdated prescription for my glasses, and my near sightedness only then swiftly became worse…I’ll list a few signs that I missed.

    Overhead signs impossible to miss…until it’s in your face. Driving at night or in the heavy downpour, also not ideal. These two were degrading to the point I stopped driving myself if it might feature twilight or night driving. I was diagnosed with glaucoma first, then the second opinion confirmed the cataracts ( to be clear this is both left eye and right eye ). Vision was ridiculously bad even with still using prescription glasses and the only corrective action was eye surgery in late 2022.

    Vision is basically perfect now, 20 / 20 for distances and I use reader glasses for work and oh, typing comments here. Please, do get that vision checked more often. I should’ve, and could’ve but did not, and being ignorant or just wilful in my own neglect is poor excuse.

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  24. The Rev Kev

    ‘This caught my eye: “A recent surge of deep learning-based studies have claimed the ability to predict unobservable latent character traits, including homosexuality, political ideology, and criminality, from photographs of human faces or other records of outward appearance’

    Must we be always going back to the 19th century? There was a pseudoscience called phrenology back then and the idea was by looking at the shape of a person’s skull, you could tell what sort of person they were to a high degree. It was really quite popular and it was up there with astrology, only not so scientific-

    https://www.britannica.com/topic/phrenology

    Those deep learning-based studies sound like more of the same.

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  25. Big River Bandido

    NOTE I’m sure there’s a name for this kind of con, where the proposition put to the mark is “I’ll give you $100 now if you’ll give up the rights to your pension later.”

    I don’t know what the name of this con is either, and I should since the music industry has practiced it so long as their standard MO with artists. (Substitute “royalties” for “pension”). Perhaps it’s comparable to the apocryphal notion that Eskimo languages have no word for “snow”.

    Reply ↓
    2. griffen

      Sounds like the bond market terms for FV of money and likewise PV of money… obvious statement is the Present value of $100 in my hands may indeed sound like a better deal. Excel has this feature now to offer an answer, but back in the late 90s the investment firm I worked at used the industry standard HP 12c business calculator.

      Adding, there is a reason for say…the Powerball lottery here in most US states will tell you upfront, should you become a lucky jackpot winner that the immediate, lump sum payout is less than the annual installment.

      Reply ↓
  26. mrsyk

    I see Trump is trying to sell “redirecting” as “budget cutting” when applied to the military. Hegseth is on record “cutting”, 8% annually next five years, Trump is “redirecting” $50B to pet military projects. Do they talk to each other?
    Pentagon orders budget revamp to reinvest $50 billion into Trump defense priorities.
    I was secretly hoping the DoD was going to get the DOGE treatment, and to a small degree they are as Civvies hired less than a year ago have been receiving the moving to terminate emails. Pass the popcorn, start the next episode.

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      The cutting and redirecting is kinda both in that some major commands will be cut – like that dealing with Europe – while others such as the one dealing with China will have their funding preserved. Check out this tweet-

      https://xcancel.com/John_Hudson/status/1892301728071983528#m

      So this tells you what their priorities will be over the next four years. Anything that you need and is made in China? Better stock up on it now.

      Reply ↓
      1. mrsyk

        Ah, Europe out on their own. It’s ok though. Ursula is going to make a great big money spigot, err, army, and then Europe will be back in favor.

        Reply ↓
        1. The Rev Kev

          When Ursula was Germany’s defence minister, she ran down the Bundeswehr to the point that soldiers had to practice with black-painted broomstick handles rather than machine guns. A European army under her watch would just be a slush fund with a few soldiers attached.

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      2. Ben Panga

        Anduril’s founder Luckey Palmer has long been explicit that his aim is to equip the US for conflict in China by 2026. Anduril is the vehicle that Thiel, Andreessen and pals funded. Assuming they have government (or executive!) buy-in they are gonna go all out for this.

        https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/anduril-ceo-vows-to-meet-drone-deadlines-citing-china-war-risk

        https://youtube.com/shorts/BunOdUed_Fo

        Coincidentally, their new mega-factory will be in Vance’s home state of Ohio

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    2. Ben Panga

      From the WaPo version of the 8% cuts story. Square brackets = added by me:

      “Hegseth ordered the proposed cuts to be drawn up by Feb. 24, according to the memo, which is dated Tuesday and includes a list of 17 categories that the Trump administration [the SV VC cabal] wants exempted. Among them: operations at the southern U.S. border [Palantir/Anduri] , modernization of nuclear weapons [Space-X] and missile defense [Space-X] and acquisition of submarines, one-way attack drones [Anduril, other SV VC startups] and other munitions [Anduril?].”

      Operation Reroute The Spigot is go!

      Reply ↓
  27. Carolinian

    Scheer/McGovern on Trump/Nixon (transcript)

    And so we’re in for a weird period now. I mean, there are plenty of Republicans who support the war, the wars and so forth, you know. And are we really, I mean, I’ll draw on your expertise here. Are we witnessing this totally unexpected historical moment? Where the guy who is supposed to be threatening all of our sanity and decency, and he is in many ways, nonetheless is bringing peace? At least to a large part of the world, and the most dangerous point, of course, of nuclear war fighting. Is that happening?

    McGovern: Well, let me go out on a limb and say, yes, that’s happening. Again, there are forces that will try to prevent this, but Trump has not only initiative, but he’s moved about 56 times faster than anyone ever had moved in the past. Talking with Putin on the 12th, sending our defense secretary to say those bitter things about, “No Ukraine in NATO,” for God’s sake, finally, on the 13th.

    Sending Vance to talk about Europe, not having, not implementing the moral values that we all share, not letting other parties into the conference, just not measuring up. As a matter of fact, doing things that remind Vance of the Soviet Union, for God’s sake. All right. And then the next day.

    Okay, the next day Rubio and Lavrov talk. And that set this whole thing up. They said, “Look, we have to repair our diplomatic relations. We have the people, our establishments, and we have to talk.” And that set up this under– referring to Trump and Putin, the meeting today in Saudi Arabia. Now what happened right after the Munich conference? Well, the Europeans didn’t know what to do.

    And as most bureaucracies operate, when you don’t know what to do, you hold a meeting, right? So they held a meeting. The head of France said, “Come to Paris and we’ll all talk about this.” And the head of Britain that has no army says, “We’re going to send troops to, we’re happy to send troops to Ukraine.” A crazy notion. The others say, “No, can’t do it.” So there’s no unity. They’re just trying to figure out what to do.

    So this is a major breakthrough.

    Some of us who are old enough to remember Vietnam, Nixon, China (but not nearly as old as the above two) hope they are right. And if they aren’t there’s nothing wrong with hoping. Much more here and the Youtube link.

    https://scheerpost.com/2025/02/18/trump-the-peacemaker/

    Reply ↓

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