By Cristen Hemingway Jaynes. Originally published at EcoWatch.
According to a new report by independent research group Climate Central, the climate crisis has driven weeks of hot temperatures in West Africa’s “cocoa belt,” where roughly 70% of the cocoa in the world is produced, impacting harvests and likely causing record chocolate prices.
Between July of 2022 and February of last year, cocoa prices jumped by 136 percent, partially due to climate extremes in the region, a press release from Climate Central said.
“Climate change, due primarily to burning oil, coal, and methane gas, is causing hotter temperatures to become more frequent in the four West African countries responsible for producing approximately 70% of the world’s cacao — the key ingredient in chocolate,” the report, Climate change is heating up West Africa’s cocoa belt, said. “While many factors, such as precipitation and insect-borne infections, can affect cacao trees, excessive heat can contribute to a reduction in the quantity and quality of the harvest — potentially increasing global chocolate prices and impacting local economies in West Africa.”
The bean pods of the cacao plant are used to produce cocoa, and they thrive under specific ranges of rainfall and temperature. Warm to hot temperatures as high as 90 degrees Fahrenheit are best for cacao growth, but any higher and the quantity and quality of the harvest can be affected.
The analysis looked at how human-caused climate change has impacted the frequency of the cocoa belt’s daily maximum temperatures over the past decade (2015 to 2024).
The study focused on 44 of the major cacao-growing regions in the top four cocoa-producing countries: Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon and Nigeria. Other major producers of cocoa include Brazil, Chile, Peru, Indonesia and Ecuador, but they were not included in the analysis.
Climate change had the largest impact on cacao-growing regions in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire — two countries which produce more than half the world’s cocoa, supporting millions of workers and farmers’ livelihoods. In both these countries, an average of roughly 40 days of daily maximum temperatures higher than 90 degrees Fahrenheit were added in the past 10 years due to climate change.
Nigeria and Cameroon saw an average of 14 and 18 more days, respectively, of cacao-limiting heat each year due to global heating.
Most — 28 of 44 — of the areas analyzed in the study experienced a minimum of six extra weeks of heat that limited cacao growth annually.
“Growing cocoa is a vital livelihood for many of the poorest people around the world and human-caused climate change is putting that under serious threat,” said Osai Ojigho, policy and public campaigns director at Christian Aid, as The Guardian reported.
Changing rainfall patterns can put additional strain on cacao growth, Climate Central said. Well-distributed and adequate rainfall is necessary for cacao plants, which do best in areas with yearly rainfall totals from 59 to 79 inches and with dry spells that last three months or less.
Much of the annual variation in cocoa production can be attributed to rainfall fluctuations. Climate change is predicted to increase frequent and/or large transitions between very wet and very dry conditions in many parts of the globe, including in West Africa, which could potentially affect cocoa production. Last year’s worldwide cocoa price increase was caused by inconsistent rainfall patterns.
Since late 2023, failed cacao harvests have contributed to a major jump in cocoa prices on the New York and London markets where cocoa is traded, reported The Guardian.
On Wednesday, cocoa prices on the New York exchange had soared to over $10,000 a tonne after a mid-December peak of more than $12,500. For decades, New York prices have mostly been steady at $2,000 to $3,000 per tonne.
Swiss chocolatier Lindt & Sprüngli said in January that it would raise prices once again to offset the rising cost of cocoa.
Future threats to cocoa production also include smuggling, illegal mining and cacao swollen shoot virus, which impact the quality and quantity of cacao harvests, creating added challenges for farmers and driving up the price of chocolate.
Heat above 90 degrees Fahrenheit not only limits chocolate production, but is dangerous for the farmworkers who harvest cocoa.
“Extreme heat compounds other dangerous and physically-demanding working conditions, including exposure to chemicals, lifting heavy loads, and long hours. Many cocoa farmers make less than $1 equivalent per day and are older adults or children — both groups that are at higher risk of heat-related illness,” the press release said. “Since about 90% of cocoa is produced by small-scale operations, the changing climate is a significant factor that directly harms the lives and livelihoods of cocoa farmers.”
Adaptations — including breeding more heat- and drought-resistant plants, shading cacao plants with taller trees and shifting production to locations that are likely to have more suitable future conditions — can help farmworkers cope with changing climate conditions, but can’t fully prevent the disruptions and challenges of cocoa production.
According to Narcisa Pricope, a geosciences professor at Mississippi University, cacao is facing an “existential threat” largely due to cacao-producing regions’ increasingly dry conditions.
Pricope said the biggest factor in the aridity was greenhouse gas emissions.
“Collective action against aridity isn’t just about saving chocolate – it’s about preserving the planet’s capacity to sustain life,” Pricope said, as The Guardian reported.
Let them eat carob.
It is all well and good to not care about high prices for luxury products but do not forget the farmers and producers who make a living in the chocolate industry, they’re suffering more than the folks who can’t get their chocolate fix.
Carob is what I was forced to eat back in the 60s and 70s as a child. I found it unpleasant then, and I don’t think I would like it now.
Good baker’s chocolate was always expensive, but I love good chocolate and have been willing to spend money that I don’t have on it when baking. Along with vanilla beans, coffee, and eggs, I might have to think about the luxury of using real ingredients in my food.
I had carob a few times when young. When viewed as a chocolate substitute, it tastes strange and disappointing.
But if its taste were analyzed and worked with in its own terms, it could perhaps be used for good things to eat, like mesquite beans which are also a dry-country tree-borne legume pod.
I note the article mentions failed harvests but not changes in overall tonnage produced.
Kevin Walmsley on YT channel “Inside China Business” has a different take on the reason for the rise in cocoa prices. China dealing directly with growers and taking substantial stocks out of the international market leaving shortages that push up the price.
https://youtu.be/2vXsdFntbzc?si=vzjEM339g3SsOKCk
The US might hesitate to go to war for Taiwan, but for Chocolate… watch out. And everybody better keep their hands off the coffee!
I have a hunch that we probably are, albeit sonewhat quietly. The leading producers of cocoa are in West Africa, the erstwhile French colonies thst remain under enormous French influence still, the same places where French presence has been questioned a lot lately and rumors are swirling about changing diplomatic orientation–Cote d’Ivoir, Ghsna, etc…
https://africasacountry.com/2023/09/nothing-good-comes-of-france
September 22, 2023
Nothing good comes of France
By Mbaye Bashir Lo
France is not a new problem for Africa. Since the 19th century, it has stood in the way of the continent’s self-determination.
Nearly half of the African Union’s 54 member states are former French colonies. In 20 countries south of the Sahara the French language and France’s economic interests still dominate. An unsettling fact emerges when examining the economic landscape: none of the 10 largest African economies are French-speaking. Yet, six of the poorest 10 nations on the continent are predominantly Francophone. Eleven out of the 14 countries that use the currencies of the CFA franc, * which France backs, are listed among the least developed by the United Nations.
* Coopération Financière en Afrique centrale
Mbaye Bashir Lo is associate professor of the practice of Asian and Middle Eastern studies and international comparative studies at Duke University.
Notice the remarkably low per capita GDP and investment levels. Ghana has been used for resource extraction, rather than resource development. China in Hainan shows what developing a self-sustaining cocoa-chocolate industry should be about:
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2024/October/weo-report?c=652,&s=NGDP_RPCH,PPPGDP,PPPPC,NID_NGDP,NGSD_NGDP,PCPIPCH,GGXWDG_NGDP,BCA_NGDPD,&sy=2017&ey=2024&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1
October 15, 2024
Ghana, 2017-2024
Real GDP, percent change
Investment, percent of GDP
Savings, percent of GDP
Inflation rate, percent change
General government gross debt, percent of GDP
Current account balance, percent of GDP
It certainly might be so.
And inside china business blog points out that China has been buying direct and is cutting out the normal supply chains and China is buying a lot of chocolate. Which is contributing to the rise in prices. How much I don’t know.
8 minute video.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2vXsdFntbzc
I’m not sure the sources in that YT, but all the standard sources I know of confirm what any chocolate lover who regularly visits China would guess – China is a very small scale consumer of chocolate, and nearly all local suppliers are foreign (Mars is actually the biggest player in the Chinese market). Total Chinese imports are not much bigger than many small European countries and its mostly in the form of imported final products, not cocoa.
Buying cocoa direct is quite standard practice by big players in the industry, either because they want to secure supplies long term, or they want to maintain high quality levels.
TIL that cacao agriculture and “bean-to-bar” artisanal chocolate-making are on their way to becoming a thing in Hawaii.
https://westernipm.org/index.cfm/ipm-in-the-west/agriculture/building-a-sweet-niche-for-hawaiian-cacao/
We do this ! We live on the Big Island of Hawai’i, growing cacao and making chocolate from it. Hawai’i is the only place in the US where cacao will grow and produce beans, and there is a fast growing local movement of bean-to-bar, tree-to-bar, and tree-to-treat producers. Some of the chocolate is really good ! If you’re visiting Hawai’i, check out the local cacao growers and chocolate makers – you’ll be pleasantly surprised.
This is already a ‘thing’ in Far North Queensland, Australia where a nascent cacao and chocolate industry is making its presence felt. https://www.charleys.com.au/
The official answer is weather and disease. Disease may (or may not be) weather-related, which may or may not be climate-driven. Looking at the Statista summary, I see that decreases of several years are not uncommon. It would be interesting to overlay with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation pattern.
I predict a torrent of climate change news articles over the next year or so that are really ENSO-driven, whose cyclical signal is much larger than the longer climate change signal.
We are currently in La Nina and sea surface temperatures are near record highs. Not sure what you mean by ENSO-driven but it’s clear that something is broken and what we’re seeing isn’t because of the ENSO – rather, the ENSO is a symptom of the disease.
El Nino Southern Oscillation
https://www.weather.gov/iwx/la_nina
Winter: Warmer in the deep south, cooler everywhere else, dryer in the south (from Atlantic to Pacific) – more fires, wetter in the Pacific Northwest
However, if La Nina ends in a few months (likely), we may transition back to El Nino in summer, for hot and hotter.
This post sent me on a bit of a search. I wondered whether the workers would be able to relocate with the farm. This would seem to be the prerequisite for “shifting production to locations that are likely to have more suitable future conditions — can help farm workers cope with changing climate conditions”. Since the cocoa bean is relatively picky in terms of moisture, temperatures and soil, this would supports any relocation being over short distances, which would seem less daunting for farmer and workers. Still, according to cacaonet.org 90% of cocoa farmers are smallholders, so would they have the means to manage even a “small” relocation? Perhaps they would with government support, but otherwise the outcome might instead be that the cocoa farmer gives up.
Xocolatl (Chocolate) was the drink of Aztec royalty, also a ceremonial drink. Average Mexica would have been lucky to have a few sips. I wonder if weather fluctuations affected harvest of cacao beans? Could have been trade routes, long way from where cacao beans are grown with human porters (no horses).
I feel for those cacao workers in West Africa.
“Collective action against aridity isn’t just about saving chocolate – it’s about preserving the planet’s capacity to sustain life,” Pricope said
I have suspected for a while the popularity among symbol manipulators of doomerist thinking on climate change is a minor contributing factor behind the loss of trust in experts.
In this corner, we have Narcisa Pricope, geology professor. Knows how to make speeches, use a laptop, and tastefully decorate her Zoom backdrop bookshelf. Thinks cacao is kaput AND WE’RE NEXT!!!
And in this corner, we have Cleetus Awriightus, hillbilly. Doesn’t know jack about climate science, and may or may not think it’s a globalist scam to sell low-flow toilets or whatever. But he knows how to dig a ditch, dress a deer, drill a well, weld a stack of dimes, and so on.
One of these contenders has a skillset which is comparatively well-suited to survival in the Mad Max hellscape that climate change is unleashing. The other one, emphatically, does not.
Well, why trust the expertise of anyone whose philosophy on life itself is so pathetically languid and defeatist?
Climate change is a frequent topic of conversation on James Meadway’s Macrodose podcast. I’ve really appreciated how he avoids this same histrionic doomerism, and instead contextualises climate change as another front on the battle against enshittification, with things just steadily getting crappier as the world warms. Chocolate, perfect example. A future (near future!) where chocolate costs dozens or hundreds of dollars a pound, that’s really going to suck. And humans will still be around to contemplate how badly it sucks.