Links 2/25/2025

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1. The Rev Kev February 25, 2025 at 7:19 am

   “Killing Me Softly singer Roberta Flack dies aged 88”

   This is really sad news. An amazing woman with so many great songs to her name. RIP

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8_fLu2yrP4 (3:16 mins)

   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roberta_Flack
   1. griffen February 25, 2025 at 7:36 am

      When I heard this from CNBC yesterday mid-afternoon, the report stated she revealed her ALS diagnosis roughly two years ago. Such a horrible and incurable disease. Pity that Lou Gehrig famously had it so young.

      Anecdotally my very extended circle of friends dating to high school are slowly losing their parents, some to illness and some just dropping from a heart attack. Roughly the ages were between 75 to 80. Per Forrest Gump, “mama said dying is just a part of life, but I wish it wasn’t Jenny…”
   2. Stephen V February 25, 2025 at 7:49 am

      She was thinking of the death of her cat when she sang “First Time Ever I Saw Your Face” …
      https://eurweb.com/2020/the-history-behind-roberta-flacks-version-of-the-first-time-ever-i-saw-your-face-eur-video-throwback/
   3. mrsyk February 25, 2025 at 8:54 am

      It’s all a bit overwhelming. To me, Ms Flack’s voice has an indelible association with being on the road, softly sung words of comfort out of the am radio to ease the anxieties of a nine year old in the back seat of our Chevy Laguna.
      RIP.
   4. Jon Cloke February 26, 2025 at 8:30 am

      ‘First Take’ is the best first album. Ever.
2. The Rev Kev February 25, 2025 at 7:45 am

   “It’s a pity that Sahra didn’t understand anything…”

   This article makes much of the fact that Germany right now is a very divided country. And I would go so far as to say that the recent elections did nothing for resolving them and most parties lost support right across the board but must still come together to forma government. In saying this I must mention a map that I have seen of the election results and you can see it on the following page about one third of the way down-

   https://ianjamesparsley.wordpress.com/2025/02/24/germany-divisions-old-and-new/

   I don’t know about you guys but this really looks like a map from the 80s with West Germany, the DDR and a small pocket of West Germany for Berlin. It’s almost uncanny.
   1. Alice X February 25, 2025 at 8:41 am

      Michael Walker and Grace Blakeley (who I like a lot) on Novara Live, yesterday (UK) starting after 08:00 talk with Loren Balhorn of Die Linke discuss the election. The later section on Gary Stevenson is also worthwhile.
      1. Lee February 25, 2025 at 12:41 pm

         Thanks for the link, Novara is new to me. Filled in a lot of gaps in my knowledge of the contemporary German political scene. A minor point perhaps, but I was intrigued to learn that in spite of AfD’s orientation on related issues, that co-leader of the AfD, Alice Weidel, is a lesbian in relationship with a Sri Lankan woman with whom she is raising two adopted sons. What a funny old world we live in.
         1. Alice X February 25, 2025 at 3:57 pm

            Novara Media is small donor funded UK leftist site. They have a weekday live hour long show at 6pm London time. With different staff hosts. They also have a Sunday interview program with generally very interesting authors/people. They also have print pieces.

            Ash Sarkar is among my staff favorites though she is off for a month with her debut book tour.

            Here is a Guardian review:

            Minority Rule: Adventures in the Culture War by Ash Sarkar – identity fraud

            A Marxist critique of left-liberal politics that delivers its message with punch and panache

            I think they’re good folks, although Emma asserts that they were in on the Corbyn slimming fest, but I haven’t found the evidence.

            Novara Media
            1. Emma February 25, 2025 at 4:43 pm

               You could start with this Google search. https://www.google.com/search?q=novara+winstanley. Asa Winstanley wrote “the book” on how ostensibly left figures destroyed Corbyn’s effort to bring Labour back left under false charges of antisemitism.
               https://orbooks.com/catalog/weaponising-anti-semitism/

               Or you could have noticed how Novara people never talked about Israel’s colonialist history and that it was never a legitimately established country. Or that Palestinians have an absolute right under international law to armed resistance. The Novara people are also amongst the biggest cheerleaders for the Syrian dirty war.
               1. Alice X February 25, 2025 at 5:28 pm

                  Or you could have noticed how Novara people never talked about Israel’s colonialist history and that it was never a legitimately established country. Or that Palestinians have an absolute right under international law to armed resistance. The Novara people are also amongst the biggest cheerleaders for the Syrian dirty war.

                  I still don’t see it. They’ve been good on Palestine in my eyes. Maybe there’s something endemic with Brits to blindside their Colonial Empire history. I know OR books, I got Refaat Alareer (and saw EI when his grave was moved): If I Must Die, from them but I gave it as a present to my Palestinian neighbors without reading it. I will buy another copy when I am able, I’m quite poor. I like Asa Winstanley and will look into his book when I am able.

                  There is an unfortunate common misunderstanding that Israel was founded on a legitimate process, pointing to UNGA resolution 181 of November 1947 (I have it and I have read it, I also have and have read the Peel Commission report which is even worse). You could go back to Britain putting Balfour into the League of Nations Mandate. Resolution 181 (as egregious as it was) forbid forced displacement. It was non-binding. To be binding it would have needed to be taken up by the Security Council which could have issued a binding resolution. It was not even taken up (perhaps they understood that they didn’t have authority to give other peoples land away). Instead the Zionists implemented Plan Dalet (and had a deal with Jordan).

                  I have researched and understand a number of these things. There is always more to learn. Emma, you have offered some very good analysis along the way, but you have also shot blanks from the hip at times. I will form my own opinion, based on facts as I find them.
                  1. Emma February 26, 2025 at 6:52 am

                     Israel did not follow Resolution 181. It never defined its own borders in order to facilitate taking more and more land every time it had a chance. It does not recognize the Palestinian right of return and other UN resolutions supportive of Palestinians. It rejects the Two State Solution that even the US claims to be notionally supportive of. These are the basis on which I claim that Israel is not a legitimate state.

                     As for Novara and its many misdeeds. I already pointed a direction for you to research if you actually cared to do so.
                     Asa and Kit Klarenberg have done a lot of documentation on this, in great detail . I’m not going to endlessly explain to you a position that’s already amply documented by those on the British left who witnessed Novara and Guardian help the right wing of Labour destroy the Corbyn project.

                     A person like Owen Jones who claims care about Palestinians, but who is supportive of their genocidal enemy’s continued existence, who does not support Palestinian right to armed struggle, who is supportive of dirty war against the main source of material aid to the Palestinians in the region…I do not consider such to ever be friends of Palestinians.

                     You can certainly make up your mind however you like but since you called me out to question me, I felt compelled to respond. If you don’t like hearing what I say, you can skip over my comments and stop casting shade on me in your comments. If I’m wrong or you disagree, let’s get into the specifics and address the material consequences of what Owen Jones said about Corbyn and Israel when it mattered and what is Novara’s long standing position is on the dirty war on Syria who long supported Palestinian struggle against Israel.
               2. Alice X February 25, 2025 at 8:13 pm

                  There is another comment in the ether, but I want to share this, Daniel Levy at, what the post page describes as the Security Council, I saw Chinese delegation in a midway segment. He notes contemporaneous grim topics. It must have dropped in the last five hours at this writing. The trolls hit the comments immediately but the tide turned.

                  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_G8_8LGsJ0
               3. Howard February 25, 2025 at 10:20 pm

                  I really liked Novara when I discovered it a year or two ago and then one of their regular people did a hatchet job on Jill Stein that could have been done by AOC. I put some of it down to ignorance of the US political scene.
                  1. Alice X February 25, 2025 at 10:54 pm

                     Who was the regular person? If I might ask, and maybe, I can track it down to view for myself.
                  2. Emma February 26, 2025 at 6:58 am

                     It’s not ignorance. They’ve always been controlled opposition to police discourse on the left and divide support for real leftists like Corbyn, Galloway, and Stein. Please follow some of Asa Winstanley and Kit Klarenberg’s documentation about their history and their actual motivation will become a lot more apparent.
            2. Alice X February 25, 2025 at 11:35 pm

               There can be misunderstandings, and misinterpretations. Can you provide a distilled link to enhance my understanding of the premise?
               1. Emma February 26, 2025 at 7:16 am

                  Here’s some

                  https://x.com/AsaWinstanley/status/1786322865203069254

                  But it’s the accumulation of evidence that show what they are.

                  https://x.com/search?q=from%3AAsaWinstanley%20novara&src=typed_query

                  This isn’t a misunderstanding or lack of knowledge, there’s a consistent pattern of behavior that show they act to undermine solidarity and left anti-establishment voices in the British/American Palestinian solidarity movement, and normalize positions to weaken Palestinian voices and legitimize Zionist voices.
   2. William Beyer February 25, 2025 at 8:50 am

      The map is a mind-blower. It looks a lot like Ukraine before the 2014 coup.
   3. .Tom February 25, 2025 at 9:26 am

      I’m curious about the central argument in the article: that voters who want nothing to do with the establishment bloc parties (CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP, Green) turned against BSW because it entered coalitions with the bloc parties after BSW’s success in the Landtag elections last year. This proved to anti-bloc voters that BSW is no alternative after all.

      Does this add up? If you know any anti-bloc voters or are one or have some other sources, please pipe up.
      1. Alice X February 25, 2025 at 11:42 am

         See my link above.
      2. ZenBean February 25, 2025 at 2:04 pm

         Does this add up?

         That is really hard to tell and I’m not aware of any BSW voters/ sympathizer surveys which could give us an answer.

         Their high water-mark in the polls was around 8 or 9 percent. It then dropped off to slightly less than five. So more than half their potential voters didn’t mind their approach. It’s not inconceivable that they would have lost even more had they refused to enter two Länder governments – especially in the case of Thuringia real non-cooperation with the legacy parties would have meant helping an AfD minority government come into power. My gut tells me that BSW’s potential base is split about this question.

         What the author doesn’t mention is that they didn’t sell out at all. In case of one Eastern state, they didn’t get what they wanted during the negotiations and pulled out: in Saxony, they’re opposition now.

         In Brandenburg they arranged a coalition with one of the more popular SPD leaders who occasionally does deviate from orthodoxy. I haven’t seen any outrage online about that decision at all.

         Thuringia oth was a messy affair and bringing the duplicitous Katja Wolf on board of their ticket, BSW probably regrets in hindsight. But beggars can’t be choosers, the pool of candidates was tight, as was the time line. Hard to tell how they could have maneuvered better there.

         What Anti-Spiegel doesn’t acknowledge is that the topics in the press and the priorities of the voters changed in the weeks before the election. Much less focus on Ukraine, where BSW differs subszantially from the faux-left DieLinke. More time devoted to the theatrics of a meaningless CDU-AfD cooperation which led to a bizarre Weimar 2.0 hysteria which benefited parties specialized in hyperpolitical acts of antifascist virtue signalling. Several terror attacks, a new focus on immigration which didn’t benefit BSW because you don’t vote for them if less immigration is you top priority. If your maxime is Open Border Über Alles then you obviously don’t vote for them either.

         In the end, they didn’t run a very good campaign. They were obviously ill-prepared for early elections and lacked man power. Not just candidates, but also grunts hanging up posters and ringing bells. Maybe I’m coping and rationalizing here, but their dailure to enter now could prove to be a blessing in that it keeps careerists and grifters like Wolf out and once the pain of Germany’s Jihad against the Mzskovites starts to dial up, their core topics might be of more interest to the voters and the party matured and better organized.

         So overall, no, I don’t think Anti-Spiegel is right here. There is some truth to what he says, but there are many other, more important factors for BSW’s setback.
   4. Mikel February 25, 2025 at 11:16 am

      Sequels often pick up where they left off.
3. JohnA February 25, 2025 at 7:47 am

   Re Senate Republicans criticize Musk over email to government employees

   Who is going to read the replies to this email? Has there been any kind of thinking into how to vet the replies? Ie acceptable, unacceptable, questionable? Will there be some kind of appeals process for responses considered unacceptable? Is there a sliding scale with regard to questionability?
   If the whole point of the exercise is to cut out waste and improve efficiency, the response process will surely create a huge amount of work in grading and vetting etc. etc. Not exactly conducive to greater efficiency or leaner operations.
   1. The Rev Kev February 25, 2025 at 7:58 am

      I would imagine that they would have AIs going through those replies with certain words triggering a negative result which might result in that person’s termination. To Musk it must sound all scientific like but it would be more akin to monkeys and typewriters coming up with usable results. Probably find that the real reason for that stupid email was to rattle people, demoralize them and break federal worker’s resistance in face of his onslaughts. It caused chaos of course and disrupted government agencies which was why some Federal agencies told their workers to ignore that email.
      1. ilsm February 25, 2025 at 8:36 am

         I have been retired from US civil service since 2003, I have no idea how much of a civilian employee’s “jacket file” is stored digitally.

         If I were looking I would take a reported week e-mail and match it to the position description which if digitized would be easy for AI.

         If the employees performance plan were digitized the e-mail could be bumped there as well.

         Bump the employee three ways.

         Then call the supervisor who certifies these things and the “classifier” who keeps them all legal and you can fire all three for fictional employee position and grade management. Or you can use RICO.
         1. mrsyk February 25, 2025 at 9:22 am

            lol, is it me, or is everything RICO now?
            1. ilsm February 25, 2025 at 6:22 pm

               If they use the “mail” to do the deeds.

               “classification, grading and making the incumbent live up to the class and grade” often seemed a bit shaky to me.

               “Position audits” I never saw one.

               No one asked and no one seemed to have a care to spend resources.
            2. Alex Cox February 25, 2025 at 10:02 pm

               RICO has never been applied to anything major. Otherwise the record industry and Hollywood studios would have been broken up and scattered to the winds, years ago.
               1. Yves Smith Post authorFebruary 26, 2025 at 7:53 am

                  The burden of proof is higher in RICO cases than non-RICO actions on the same underlying charge.
      2. tegnost February 25, 2025 at 11:10 am

         as others have pointed out, there has to be some data mining/nigeria scam angle
   2. Socal Rhino February 25, 2025 at 9:10 am

      According to Musk this is a simple pulse test, intended to see if those on the payroll are engaged enough to see an incoming email and respond to it. It is looking for no show jobs. It’s pass/fail.
      1. The Rev Kev February 25, 2025 at 9:25 am

         That is a sort of ‘The dog ate my homework’ excuse. You could have Federal employees out in the field or away in other countries or out sick not seeing that email until it was too late. The original email was so brief on his part is sounded like a brain fart. Musk reacts very badly to people calling him out on his bs and this sounds like an excuse that he had his pr team come up with.
         1. ambrit February 25, 2025 at 9:28 am

            This is more like a “The DOGE ate my work from home” observation.
            1. The Rev Kev February 25, 2025 at 9:32 am

               Hah!
         2. Carolinian February 25, 2025 at 10:03 am

            There seem to be two theories about the Trumpies. One says that everything they are doing is part of a carefully worked out plan (be it good or evil). The other suggests they are making it up as they go along. While there is undoubtedly some of the first here’s suggesting it is mostly the second one.

            And we know this applies to Musk himself since every time one of his rockets blows up he says it’s all part of the learning process. When it comes to rockets his methods have produced success, with the assistance of many talented engineers. When it comes to human relations, however, they are very bad indeed and he should just shut up–something he seems incapable of doing.

            Still the chaos may be better than the previous admin which was both incompetent and very quiet indeed. Their approach to mistakes was to deny that they were capable of making mistakes. Our voter choice seems to have come down to the blowhards versus the autocrats.
            1. Bill B February 25, 2025 at 10:52 am

               Elon said he’ll make mistakes. But, he spews mistakes on X, such as the tens of millions of 150-300 yr-olds receiving SS, and then doubles down. Does this mean he’s competent? His DOGEbags might be competent at installing back doors, though. Much better than the last admin.
               1. Carolinian February 25, 2025 at 11:15 am

                  The majority of space launches now go up on Space X. And Tesla–which one should emphasize was mostly worked out before Musk bought it–was studied by its competition to see how to do it. Much of Musk’s fortune may be due to self promotion but it seems he is competent to produce some impressive accomplishments.

                  But making him USG personnel manager was surely a mistake. With Trump’s cabinet now formed they seem to be pushing back.
                  1. Bill B February 25, 2025 at 11:33 am

                     Agreed that he helped build an impressive car company, etc., (with some help from free money and maybe some loans) from the government. But, as I think you’re pointing out, intelligence in one area doesn’t equal intelligence in all areas, and that’s assuming cutting WF&A is actually his objective, which I’m skeptical of. He may have more grandiose plans, along the lines of Ellison’s dark vision.
      2. Dr. John Carpenter February 25, 2025 at 9:40 am

         Yeah, right. That sounds like a classic Musk retcon, which he is well known for.

         The emails looked like standard phishing or, to be generous, pen test emails. A big branined tech guy like Musk would know that. I would have reported them to cybersecurity.
      3. t February 25, 2025 at 9:42 am

         That us really astounding. We keeping joking about his drug use but yikes.

         What is the MAGA concept of a federal worker and workplace? If you don’t have five minutes, they and the bots say, instead of recognizing the very real concerns about this latest bizarre attack.

         As plenty of people have pointed out, these emails look like a phishing test and in many, most, or even all roles answering would be a mistake (even for the emails noting “no confidential information”).

         I am curious about what happens if a recipient try to use Outlook to see who it’s from and who’s part of the distribution. Suspect it’s a single stand-alone email because, as we have seen, if DOGE was a person it would be too dumb to eat a cracker without choking.
         1. Emma February 25, 2025 at 11:19 am

            It feels like a con where DOGE is hogging everybody’s attention with daily feats of illegal petty meanness, while they’re quietly pulling a more serious heist over us (so far it seems like going after entitlements and removing all regulatory blocks to online gambling and crypto “stablecoin” usage).

            I think the really big whale was a federally (with tariffs) funded AI scam, but Deepseek really deflated that bubble at a good time for the rest of us.
            1. lyman alpha blob February 25, 2025 at 12:58 pm

               While everybody is worrying about what Musk might do, and justifiably so, we find out today at NC in the Ellison post that Oracle already has detailed dossiers on 5 billion people. Where did he get all that?

               My bet is that Trump will eventually fire Musk. But looking at the big picture here regarding protecting people’s personal data and privacy, it sure sounds like even if Musk goes immediately, that’s just shutting the barn door long after the horse is gone.
      4. Emma February 25, 2025 at 10:02 am

         It’s pass/fail for detection of a spearfishing attempt by an unsecured email sender from outside their organization. Anyone who falls for this without top cover from within their organization deserves to be reprimanded for jeopardizing organizational information security.
         1. ChrisFromGA February 25, 2025 at 10:21 am

            That could be a Machiavellian way to fire a bunch of folks for cause.

            Not just reprimanded … threatening our national security or something like that.
            1. wendigo February 25, 2025 at 10:37 am

               Would the ultimate Machiavellian way be to fire people for answering the email and firing others for not answering?
               1. Emma February 25, 2025 at 11:11 am

                  They probably know that they can’t fire feds this way. I’m guessing that they’re just making federal employment so unbearable that anyone who can get out will do so, and many more may simply take any “properly done” buyouts and layoff plans gratefully and leave.

                  My understanding is that the federal government is already quite understaffed aside from DoD and maybe DHS. Even a 25 percent cut to headcount will make the work extremely miserable to impossible to do. The “lucky duckies” who get to stay may come to envy their fired colleagues.
            2. Emma February 25, 2025 at 10:59 am

               OPM itself issued clarifications yesterday, first saying that response was voluntary and had no impact on people’s jobs. A later email stated that response was mandatory. We also seen each federal agency issue vastly different response guidance to their employees. So the idea that this is some kind of simple “are you alive” test that feds are overreacting to completely overlooks the lack of coherent guidance and security on the email.

               BTW, for all the idiots and unfortunates who were forced to reply to the unsecured email server, every “adversary” now knows your email, your boss’s emails, your coworkers’ email, etc. If a smattering of those people replied with their typical government signature block identifying their work unit and title, now the Chinese and Russians really will have a fully up to date org chart for the US government, long before the Elon’s bois and AI get around to Lavender AIing people’s jobs based on the response.

               BTW – Elon has also K-tweeted that anyone who hasn’t returned to office yet (perhaps because their agency hasn’t been able to find space for them or because they’re a military spouse) gets put on admin leave THIS WEEK and turn the 5 bullets question into a weekly thing.

               I’m just waiting for Elon to show up in a picture signing bombs aimed at US government office buildings at this point.
               1. Bill B February 25, 2025 at 12:59 pm

                  Maybe he’ll copy Niki: “Finish them”
      5. Mikel February 25, 2025 at 10:32 am

         Everybody was talking about the tech bros around Trump during the inauguration ceremonies. Only a little attention was given to the commercial real estate crowd that also has gathered around Trump.

         Some of this is their “work from home” concerns being addressed.
   3. Bill B February 25, 2025 at 12:46 pm

      Musk renews firing threat after being stymied by federal officials

      “…the Trump administration said workers did not have to respond.”

      https://www.reuters.com/world/us/some-us-government-workers-told-justify-their-jobs-musk-others-told-ignore-him-2025-02-24/

      Contradicting Musk, even as he doubles down? Really?
4. Trees&Trunks February 25, 2025 at 7:58 am

   Putin about ownership vs. operations. This is the only wise way to deal with non-renewable natural resources. Natural resources should belong to the state = you and me. Most of the revenues should go to the state = you and me because once it is dug up from the ground and sent away, they never come back. No foreign entity should be allowed to own anything, not even in any indirect or derivative way. If foreign companies are good at something, maybe they could be useful for operations.
   I visited an oil&gas conference in Turkmenistan where the hosts made that very clear to all foreign companies present. You get some crumbles but you will never own the cookie. The fellow delegation participants also agreed on that when we talked about that approach.
5. flora February 25, 2025 at 8:05 am

   re: beekeepers.

   Lee Fang’s substack, public excerpt.

   This Pesticide Rapidly Eradicating Insect Life May Also Harm Humans

   https://www.leefang.com/p/this-pesticide-rapidly-eradicating
   1. playon February 25, 2025 at 2:58 pm

      Thanks for that Flora – it appears that nothing will change on this front due to regulatory capture by Bayer and things definitely won’t improve under Trump. Elon recently said he would like to get rid of *all* regulations.
      1. MicaT February 25, 2025 at 7:48 pm

         Biden and Dems didn’t do anything
         Both parties are captured
6. Samuel Conner February 25, 2025 at 8:15 am

   Re: the UNGA vote on the RF SMO, this is interesting.

   Alexander Mercouris, in his 2/24 commentary, thought that the more neutrally-worded US-proposed resolution would pass, the more harshly worded one would fail, embarrassing its European sponsors and showing them to be isolated wrt rest-of-world; he considered it unwise of them to have dissented from the US approach. In the event, it is US that finds itself, on this subject, out of step with rest-of-world.

   John Helmer reports that Macron seems to think that he has maneuvered DJT into agreeing to some kind of backstop for a European ground force to be deployed into Ukraine after a peace deal. It is hard to imagine that there will be a peace deal if this is in prospect, but if JH’s interpretation is accurate, it suggests that perhaps the Europeans are exerting more influence on US policy than previously seemed likely.
   1. Bugs February 25, 2025 at 9:27 am

      I watched Macron & Trump speaking to the press from the Oval yesterday and after Macron said that there would be a European force in place to maintain stability (the wording was strange), the questioner asked Trump if the Russians would accept this. Trump said “yes”. A very odd exchange. Probably Trump bs-ing. It’s here – not sure it works in every geo – you need to rewind to see it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DopGPRgA3_8
      1. The Rev Kev February 25, 2025 at 9:37 am

         As a European force is exactly the same as a NATO force, I can’t see the Russians agreeing. They wuld seek to preserve the present regime. Of course the Chinese could offer to send in a force and it would be funny seeing those NATO countries twist themselves in knots saying how that would be impossible because…because…well just because.
   2. urdsama February 25, 2025 at 10:58 am

      At what point do we acknowledge this is the collective West talking to itself? Russia won’t, and Putin can’t, agree to anything that leaves forces in western Ukraine.

      And let’s be honest, all of Trump’s supposed “diplomatic wins” have either been disputed after the fact, or were easily agreed to (or even gamed out beforehand by the other nations as in the case of Mexico).

      While Trump’s second administration is definitely more organized than the first, it still suffers from foot-in-mouth disease – Trump and Musk have it to a chronic degree.
      1. Otaku Army February 25, 2025 at 11:47 am

         30 minutes prior to your post, Peskov confirmed that Russia’s position, expressed earlier by Lavrov, had not changed.

         “There is a position on this matter that was expressed by Russian foreign minister [Sergei] Lavrov. I have nothing to add to this and nothing to comment on,” Peskov said.

         After talks with the US in Riyadh last week, Lavrov said the presence of European peacekeepers in Ukraine would be “unacceptable”.
         1. lyman alpha blob February 25, 2025 at 1:14 pm

            These current negotiations remind me quite a bit of this scene from Bad Santa, with Bernie Mac as Russia and Tony Cox as the US.

            I’m sure actual Russians can pronounce “prix fixe” better than Bernie though.
   3. gk February 25, 2025 at 1:23 pm

      Standard US policy. Remember the UN resolution condemning Nazism? Opposed only by the US, Palau, and Ukraine.
   4. ilsm February 25, 2025 at 6:36 pm

      If Kosovo/Camp Bonesteel is a model, how many mechanized brigades to cover the length of the west bank of the Dneiper?

      Which country can field one mechanized brigade and sustain in 700 km east of Poland and Rumania? Camp Bonesteel is pushing 26 years.

      Where are the air bases to provide air superiority if their deterrence fails?

      False flags abundance.

      Yankee stay home!
7. The Rev Kev February 25, 2025 at 8:34 am

   “Britain depends on Norway for energy. Some Norwegians want to cut us off”

   The Norwegian government could have easily headed this off by placing a price cap for energy in Norway itself. As long as they kept people at home satisfied, then they could export the surplus to the EU – of which they are not even a member of. Instead they made all these overseas connections and screwed over the locals. One connection I remember was opened up to Poland – the day after the NS2 pipelines were blown up. What a coincidence. Of course it would be very easy for a far-right party to arise and making energy prices their main focus of attack and I could see a sitting Norwegian government collapsing under such attacks. Still not too late to think about a price cap but I don’t think that that would happen.
   1. vao February 25, 2025 at 9:03 am

      “The Norwegian government could have easily headed this off by placing a price cap for energy in Norway itself.”

      If this German article is to be believed, this is partially the case already: most people there use “smart meters”, meaning the rates for the electricity they consume vary in function of the price on the electricity market. However, up to 90% of the cost (for households) above a certain limit are taken over by the government.

      In any case the Norwegians are not just irritated by the price shifts imposed by the British market, but also by the vagaries of the renewable energy production in Germany — the infamous “Dunkelflaute” (periods of no sun and no wind) — resulting in price spikes at home.

      It looks as if, even in countries producing an excess of energy — such as Norway — people prefer the predictable, stable tariffs from the old-fashioned regulated local utilities rather than the brave new world of European-wide, “dynamic” market pricing.
      1. The Rev Kev February 25, 2025 at 9:10 am

         Yeah, that sounds much closer to the truth. But to me this is like the Saudis telling their people that ‘Sorry guys, we have run out of oil for you.’
      2. .human February 25, 2025 at 10:04 am

         Sounds like Enron’s spot market pricing all over again!

         And I still don’t believe that Ken Lay is dead.
      3. Ignacio February 25, 2025 at 12:25 pm

         This raises questions about international connections. It is argued that international connectivity is a good approach for supply security and to make renewable energy available in regions with high demand. Per the article I believe the main problem here is pricing. You connect grids, exchange electricity… and energy prices, making the “generating side” pay more for what they would otherwise have to pay if isolated. Markets is the problem here. If this is noted by a relatively rich country like Norway imagine when you interconnect, for instance, a non particularly rich rural region which is net a generator (source) with a relatively wealthier region with high demand (sink). Shouldn’t it be necessary to shield the people in the source region from price spikes caused in the sink? First things first: solve pricing problems in grid systems then interconnect.
         1. vao February 25, 2025 at 1:51 pm

            This is a very relevant question that has two further aspects:

            1) The EU electricity market is actually subdivided into “price zones” of very different granularities. Germany constitutes one giant price zone, while Norway (not EU but integrated in the EU electricity market) is itself subdivided into smaller price zones.

            The idea is that price zones would better reflect regional characteristics regarding the type and quantity of energy production, as well as the features of the overall distribution network. Thus, a region that produces electricity from cheap renewal sources would benefit from lower prices, while another one still relying on coal or gas would have to accept higher tariffs. And if the distribution network does not have the capacity to transfer current from a region to another, then each region must find a local price equilibrium instead on relying on an artificial global price that does not correspond to an achievable reality because of distribution bottlenecks.

            This explains why, despite calls to subdivide Germany into price zones, there has been staunch opposition, especially from Bavaria, to let Länder in Northern Germany — that enjoy a surplus of wind-generated electricity — organize their own price zone. In fact, the question has been under study for years, and it seems to be very hard to delineate coherent price zones in Germany.

            2) The other issue is the “merit-order pricing” used in the EU electricity market. If 99% of the electricity is generated via low-cost L sources (hydropower, wind, sun…) and 1% via high-cost H sources (coal, oil, gas), the final price is not, as reasonably expected (0.99*L + 0.01*H), but instead H. There is a justification for the scheme that reads exactly like what a theoretical economist would concoct.

            The problem is that energy companies divert power from zones where prices are low to those where prices are high, ultimately raising the prices in the supposedly low-cost/low-price zone — which is also what the Norwegians have been complaining about.

            I do not know what the solution is, but it probably would not look like the commodity market that the EU Commission and EU politicians have always been striving for.
8. Wukchumni February 25, 2025 at 8:37 am

   Egypt announces first discovery of pharaoh’s tomb in more than 100 years Reuters
   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
   Dateline: March 5, 4032

   The first discovery in more than 100 years of a high tech lord’s tomb has experts in a tizzy, as there are literally hundreds of rolls of double-ply Charmin, some in original wrapping!

   Sotheby’s outdueled Christie’s for the right to auction off what experts are calling ‘the find of a century’ in a long forgotten bunker complex on the Hawaiian coast. Also found were Mountain House freeze-dried food of every possible variety in #10 cans, an expert tried some Beef Stroganoff and related that it held up reasonably well-the first human to eat beef in over 1,900 years since Bird Flu took them all out.
   1. Emma February 25, 2025 at 11:40 am

      https://www.costco.com/mountain-house-1-year-emergency-food-pallet–246ct-2814-total-servings.product.100843064.html
      1. Emma February 26, 2025 at 10:55 am

         At today’s food prices, it’s only slightly more expensive than my normal food budget, especially for people who are compelled be necessity or personal impulse to become mobile tiny-home dwellers.

         https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hcXR48wp9IQ

         On the other extreme (not that extreme, but these rigs have MSRP of a quarter mil and yes, this is the one I really want but can never justify getting)

         https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NAnpHD5CiEk
         1. Wukchumni February 26, 2025 at 11:03 am

            Perhaps i’ve eaten more Mountain House than anybody else on here, it being a staple until overtaken by Peak freeze-dried meals which taste better and require less water to prepare.

            The prospect of eating freeze-dried meals all the time is a bit daunting, after a week in the back of beyond i’m ready for the real deal.
9. Louis Fyne February 25, 2025 at 8:42 am

   Roger Penrose appeared on Joe Rogan’s show, 6 years ago!

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEw0ePZUMHA

   Alas when Joe Rogan is “Golden Age BBC” than today’s BBC. this is another example of why we can’t have nice things.
   1. lyman alpha blob February 25, 2025 at 1:36 pm

      The reason I started watching Rogan years ago was because of the physicists he often had on. He was genuinely interested in what they had to say, but he did have a hard time grokking some of the concepts (as do I). It was always kind of fun watching Rogan’s head spin when they;d drop some knowledge on him.. I wish he’d have them on more now – I haven’t seen any on his show for a while.
10. flora February 25, 2025 at 8:42 am

    Jonathan Turley on freedom of speech:

    The American Rōnin: How Displaced “Disinformation Experts” Are Seeking New Opportunities in Europe and Academia

    https://jonathanturley.org/2025/02/24/the-american-ronin-how-displaced-disinformation-experts-are-seeking-new-opportunities-in-europe-and-academia/
    1. Acacia February 25, 2025 at 10:48 am

       Maybe they could just seppuku now or learn to code or some such?
       1. flora February 25, 2025 at 11:05 am

          Learn to code. Yeah, learn to code. Yeah, that’s the ticket! / ;)
11. KidDoc February 25, 2025 at 8:43 am

    1 – Fire most or all newly hired public health staff
    2 – Re-hire those who are (indirectly) bought and paid for by industry

    Good luck reducing corrupted healthcare protocols, designed to raise vested interest profits…
12. The Rev Kev February 25, 2025 at 8:48 am

    “3 Indian River Lagoon dolphins die of suspected bird flu”

    Very much unexpected as it is sad. Sure, they are mammals but to have them infected with a bird flu is a bit of a head-scratcher. The linked article suggests-

    ‘We know that dolphins in the lagoon will commonly feed on large schools of fish communally with large groups of birds, so it’s possible that might be how they could acquire the virus. The birds will actually shed the virus through saliva, mucus or feces, so the dolphins would have to come into contact with one of those.’

    https://www.wesh.com/article/florida-bottlenose-dolphins-dead-bird-flu/63373102
    1. t February 25, 2025 at 9:50 am

       I’d like to read more when we know more. Rabies is unusual in marine mammals because they are not built for being infected via saliva except when bitten by a land critter, bitten through the layer of blubber.

       The way they eat – would virus in anything have a chance to infect before stomach acids got it?

       Worth watching for a good theory on how.
       1. mrsyk February 25, 2025 at 10:28 am

          Concentrated viral loads have been measured in the air around the dead and dying. This would seem to be a possibe source of infection when one considers the logistics of a dolphin breath.
          Here’s an article (based on a study) on the virus spreading on the wind. Study finds strong evidence that bird flu spreads through the air between farms, News-Med.
13. timbers February 25, 2025 at 8:52 am

    Trump and Europe Fail to Realize that Russia Has a Vote – Larry Johnson Got to start reading more Larry Johnson. See him often on Napolitino but he is better in print. The video of Marcon arrival at WH being greeted by a staffer causing Marcon asking for and getting a redo arrival so he can be filmed with Trump greeting him, is priceless. What more needs to be said about Marcon? And Larry’s “Ursala Fond of Lying” is a gem. Pleasantly surprised so far by Russian taking all the time in the world regarding negotiations with Team Trump. Plus it gives US Team time to graduate from 1st grade high school lessons in diplomacy and prepare for their lessons in 2nd grade. Bet some of US Tesm are privately feeling out of their depth talking to the Russians.
    1. The Rev Kev February 25, 2025 at 8:59 am

       Trump seems to have a soft spot for Macron and I have no idea why. Others have noticed this too. The guy is a snake who is capable of changing his positions daily. You could only trust him as far as the door and yet Trump seeks to accommodate him. He is exactly the sort of person to backstab Trump but does Trump even realize it?
       1. k February 25, 2025 at 9:23 am

          Sounds like they are a perfect match to me. Which back gets stabbed first?
       2. Bugs February 25, 2025 at 9:48 am

          IMHO, DJT finds Macron charming and appreciates the flattery. He also yesterday made a point of mentioning his treatment in Paris when he was hosted as the honored guest of the French president at the 2017 14 July military parade and taken out to dinner with Melania and Brigitte Macron at Le Jules Verne. At the time, the rest of the liberal West was still deep in Trump denial so I think he appreciated being treated like a world leader, as well as being taken out for a nice dinner, making him and his wife look like a human beings instead of monsters.

          Trump also likely appreciates the long history of French/American allyship – when Macron made the obligatory summary of the intertwined history of the two nations, Trump looked moved. Macron is a snake, but he’s got fine charisma management talents, especially with peer men of a certain age.
       3. Darthbobber February 25, 2025 at 10:27 am

          Macron achieved the presidency partly by playing Iago to Hollande, as the bulk of the policy choices that utterly wrecked Hollande and his party were Macron’s policies or recommendations.
14. bertl February 25, 2025 at 8:54 am

    I’ve been following Starmer’s speech to the House of Commons on the need to prepare, essentially, for war with Russia rather than simply making a good treaty, as Bismarck advised. A truly wretched Starmer in Wonderland address which received responses equally rich in fantasy:
    
    1. The Rev Kev February 25, 2025 at 9:07 am

       Starmer can make all the threats that he wants but the truth of the matter is that the British military has been so run down by ALL the British governments so badly that it is incapable of fighting the Russians. At the moment the British have more admirals than actual warships and far more horses than main battle tanks. They just can’t do it and if they tried to send a force to the Ukraine, Putin might paraphrase Bismark and say ‘If the English should landed an army on our soil, I shall send the police to have them arrested.’
       1. Darthbobber February 25, 2025 at 10:24 am

          Pretty sure that if they had do do the Falklands war again it wouldn’t go so well this time.
       2. Michaelmas February 25, 2025 at 12:16 pm

          The Rev Kev: Starmer can make all the threats that he wants but the truth of the matter is that the British military has been so run down by ALL the British governments …(that) at the moment the British have more admirals than actual warships

          Starmer is NOT going to build up the UK’s conventional military, I think. (I had a cursory look at the details of the UK government’s actual proposal.)

          The money is going to the UK’s intelligence and security services — in other words, GCHQ, Five, Six, and the UK Army’s DIA.

          The UK already has more personnel in those organizations than it does conventional military personnel, so this will just be more of Perfidious Albion doing its perfidious spook thing.

          It in fact makes sense. In 2024, what the hell does the UK need to spend money on a conventional military of more 70,000 for, when it’s an island with water all around it and has a nuclear deterrent and submarines*? Covert ops will do more in terms of the UK getting its way internationally.

          *Now if only the U.S -supplied Polaris missiles that supposedly will deliver those ‘independent nuclear deterrent’ British warheads worked. They haven’t on the last two tests.
       3. gk February 25, 2025 at 1:32 pm

          That’s exactly what the Spanish did when the British tried to invade Gibraltar.
    2. ambrit February 25, 2025 at 9:12 am

       As the Oracle responded to the question on what would happen if a war was started: A great Empire will be destroyed. With Starmer et. al. we are dealing with the dregs of an Empire….
    3. nyleta February 25, 2025 at 3:20 pm

       The other Bismark dictum is also being ignored…..the Russians always come for their money. Just give them back the $ 300 billion and save yourself a lot of grief, it is a perfect start for negotiations.

       Mr Lavrov said everyone will have to pay for their crimes, the list has over 90,000 names on it.
       1. The Rev Kev February 25, 2025 at 5:43 pm

          A bit like the Game of Throne’s Iron Bank- ‘The Iron Bank will have its due.’ Of course that $300 billion is not the only money that west has stolen from Russia so have no idea how they can pay back all that money.
15. bertl February 25, 2025 at 9:05 am

    I seem unable to make the link feature work:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCiSX_5Je2M
    1. bertl February 25, 2025 at 9:07 am

       Now I have, it seems.
       1. t February 25, 2025 at 9:53 am

          The link feature doesn’t like some of us. Other people use it all the time. Some device-browser combinations aren’t suited, I suppose.
          1. tegnost February 25, 2025 at 11:25 am

             I always just copy/paste, that way I can excise the jumble of add ons after the backslash or whatever the marks the end of necessary figures which my non techie method is to copy into a new window a little of the details as possible until I get a successful result…hope that makes sense…
16. FreeMarketApologist February 25, 2025 at 9:31 am

    Re: This Fintech’s Visa Card Keeps Grandpa From Blowing His Nest Egg:

    Tough call on this one. For an elderly person who is reasonably independent yet at heightened risk for financial loss (e.g., falling for a financial scam, making particularly poor spending decisions), some level of financial supervision by a trusted relative, financial trustee, or caregiver is a plus. The individual gets a certain level of independence, but has some guardrails on activity.

    It appears that the company isn’t making the decision to limit spending categories/amounts — the relative/trustee/etc is. The card fees don’t seem crazy ($12/mo) for this sort of service, but of course they are making money off the float (because it’s a pre-paid debit card), and the investment fees for services offered through their investment advisory business (charging 1% of assets to manage trusts through basic investments in ETFs is… ok..?).

    How much paternalism should we provide for the elderly at risk so they can retain some level of independence without blowing themselves up?
    1. Stubbins February 25, 2025 at 8:17 pm

       I recently turned off the TrueLink card I’d set up for a demented in-law, now that they have died. The fees were what they said, the card was easy to deactivate, but I confess the in-law never actually used the card – they were too far gone by the time they could have used it.

       Before this card, the in-law was almost ripped off repeatedly.

       First we had the so-called “incarcerated relative scam” only being prevented by a vigilant bank staffer (we made the staffer cookies and gave her flowers afterwards).

       Then we had an in-person visit from salesmen from that would have put her conservative-but-not-a-flat-out-ripoff annuities into some long-term health insurance she didn’t need and which was surely an outright scam. We only discovered this because we happened to visit while they were there, and found the handwritten document they were having her sign that the in-law was of sound mind (they were NOT). These were salesmen from a company she had an existing relationship with, and who were panicked upon being discovered mid-heist (“I could lose my job over this!”)

       I can’t say I used the TrueLink card enough to fully evaluate it, but I definitely think there is a legitimate need for such a thing, and I didn’t feel ripped off by the company.
17. ChrisFromGA February 25, 2025 at 9:38 am

    I’m sensing that we may be near peak D.O.G.E.

    Also, Mike Johnson is on the struggle bus:

    https://thehill.com/video-clips/5162457-watch-live-house-gop-leaders-press-conference-budget-resolution/

    He can only afford to lose one vote, or two votes plus the disgruntled GOP member voting “present” or agreeing not to show up. This is for next year’s budget framework, not the must-pass funding bill that would avert a government shutdown on March 14.

    I count Massie and Spartz as NO. Plus Chip Roy not happy. Will Trump have to lobby them to change votes again, like that distasteful crap-show they put on to re-elect Johnson as speaker?

    Johnson reminds me of a saying back in the day – “He’s a couple of egg-salad sandwiches short of a picnic”
18. Wukchumni February 25, 2025 at 9:47 am

    A retailer that seemed to have nothing to do with anything computerized in terms of what they sold, is closing all 800 retail stores.

    I don’t think I ever went into a Joann store, arts & crafts not being my bag.
    1. .human February 25, 2025 at 10:11 am

       Wow. Just WOW. I haven’t shopped a Joann’s in a while, but their range of products was substantial. They were at the top of my list for craft-like items. Michael’s comes close. Wonder how long they will last. There’s always Wallymart.
       1. ambrit February 25, 2025 at 11:40 am

          Joann had tons of stuff on the shelves. I went there regularly, until the local outlet closed two years ago. WalMart has thin offerings on the shelf. They seem to prioritize making the customer order online through their portal. Gatekeeping and Rent Extraction at their best! Michaels and Hobby Lobby are the only venues left around here. The other major plus for Joann was that it was the last big fabrics and sewing shop left.
          This is classic short sighted business planning. Close one of the last sewing chains just before the collapse of the “fast fashion” trend.
    2. Mikel February 25, 2025 at 10:46 am

       I guess time spent on the social media is time not spent doing arts and crafts.
    3. Emma February 25, 2025 at 11:43 am

       That really makes me sad. They’re probably the only chain arts and crafts store that I would voluntarily step inside of.
    4. IM Doc February 25, 2025 at 12:01 pm

       I have been keeping track in my Wall Street Journal since last Sat/Sun Feb 15/16 –

       Every day this week – there have been articles about layoffs in big companies. With the estimated 12,500 jobs at JoAnn – the grand total for the week is now up to 117,000. Huge layoffs are happening all over the private sector. ( This has to be countered, I guess with announcements like Apple of adding 20000 or so jobs that have also appeared this week ).

       Since the DOGE is moving so fast, I cannot keep up with any kind of numbers on the fed gov lay offs. However, I do not get the idea that it comes close to the private sector layoffs.

       But we were told the last 4 years that we are living in the healthiest economy ever. I will just add that to all the others – immigration is great, the vaccines are 100% safe and effective, Biden is as clear as he has ever been, the laptop is a conspiracy theory, inflation is all in your mind, it is perfectly ok for 8 year olds to be forced into life altering genital surgery, it is OK for boys to compete with girls in athletics and to take women’s scholarships, it is perfectly reasonable to charge patients and their insurance company 500K$ a year for medication, I can go on and on and on. I no longer trust a thing the media says. It all seems to be a lie. And at times lies that really harm people.
       1. ChrisFromGA February 25, 2025 at 12:40 pm

          Don’t forget the biggest lie: Gaza’s not genocide.
          1. Divadab February 25, 2025 at 7:56 pm

             Another big lie: Russia invaded Ukraine for no reason! Unprovoked!
       2. Mikel February 25, 2025 at 2:25 pm

          Inflationary price pressures are hanging around and there is clamoring for even lower interest rates.
          This all goes back to Powell’s 2022 pain speech.
          Looks like the establishment’s preferred way to fight inflation is cutting wages by all means.
       3. Mikel February 25, 2025 at 2:54 pm

          “This has to be countered, I guess with announcements like Apple of adding 20000 or so jobs that have also appeared this week.”

          And balance that with it has to do with AI that will probably cost jobs.

          Here’s the Powell 2022 Pain speech. Posted within comments I made yesterday:
          https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20220826a.htm/
          August 26, 2022
          Monetary Policy and Price Stability -Chair Jerome H. Powell
          “…Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance. Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions. While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain…”

          “…History shows that the employment costs of bringing down inflation are likely to increase with delay, as high inflation becomes more entrenched in wage and price setting…”

          I think the idea is that extremely low incomes with extremely high incomes and no in-between is the best protection for oligarch’s wealth.
19. ChrisFromGA February 25, 2025 at 9:57 am

    Another Clique of Goofballs, part II

    We don’t need defenestration
    We don’t need no fraud control
    No dark sarcasm from tech bastards
    D.O.G.E.s leave those Feds alone

    Hey! D.O.G.E.s leave those Feds alone!

    All in all you’re just another clique of goofballs
    All in all you’re just another clique of goofballs

    [Repeat Chorus]

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krYK1jWz0Lo
    1. mrsyk February 25, 2025 at 11:37 am

       If you don’t eat your meat you can’t have any pudding!
       1. ambrit February 25, 2025 at 11:43 am

          Don’t forget! Tomorrow is Soylent Economy Day!
          Charlton Heston screaming at the crowd: “Don’t participate in the Soylent Economy! It’s made out of laid off people!”
          1. Wukchumni February 25, 2025 at 1:24 pm

             …I was under the impression that this was the Goylent Green economy?
             1. ChrisFromGA February 25, 2025 at 1:47 pm

                LOL. You win the thread again, Wuk!
                1. Wukchumni February 26, 2025 at 11:05 am

                   Thanks, can I get that grift rapt?
       2. ChrisFromGA February 25, 2025 at 12:14 pm

          Macron’s flown across the ocean … leaving just a memory … a snapshot in the Orangeman’s album … Macron, what else did you promise T? All in all, it was just another brick in the wall
    2. ChrisFromGA February 25, 2025 at 12:27 pm

       Better version, closer in time to the album release date:

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBQsQoGodPY

       (Includes “Another Brick in the Wall, Part I” and “The happiest days of our lives.”)

       Extended solos from Gilmour, Nick Wright, and an unknown second guitar player (Snowy White?)
       1. mrsyk February 25, 2025 at 1:10 pm

          Thanks. Their lp Wish You Were Here is a regular listen here.
20. The Rev Kev February 25, 2025 at 9:58 am

    “Chinese AI Robot Goes Rogue and Attacks Woman Before Getting Shut Down”

    That robot was really trying to go her and I mean go her. Nothing mistaken about it and you wonder how a program could go so wrong that it would do something never envisioned by the designers – attack some random woman in a crowd. Does the thing have an inbuilt attack mode or something? Is it to late to incorporate Asimov’s three laws of robotics?
    1. ChrisFromGA February 25, 2025 at 10:05 am

       Asimov’s three laws are abolished. Here are the new laws:

       1. AI is fake
       2. AI is fraudulent
       3. AI is greased with marketing lube.
    2. Wukchumni February 25, 2025 at 10:09 am

       Part of the inhumanity of the computer is that, once it is competently programmed and working smoothly, it is completely honest.

       Asimov
       1. Bill B February 25, 2025 at 11:13 am

          “Competently” Reminds me of an episode of The Recruit where the CIA is working on a AI torture bot that is supposed to put the interrogated person in a stress position. But during testing, the test subject’s arm is ripped off, because the bot had recognized the human test subject as another bot.
    3. Es s Ce Tera February 25, 2025 at 11:58 am

       Geez, I had to turn off Youtube’s Restricted Mode to view this wanton violence, I had to cringe, cover my eyes, look away, I would not subject children to this, this is NSFW! It was a bloodbath!

       Was that robot actually AI-powered or just a simple mechanical device driven by software?

       My general sense is oh look evil China tech AI robots attacking poor frail helpless innocent women, assemblage of keywords repeatedrepeatedrepeated and intended to induce fear/anger/uncertainty/doubt in those who consume this. I see it’s dutifully making television news, is being spoonfed to the unsuspecting masses. All of this is to say, we are under attack by evil China.

       And “attack” implies intent, which implies consciousness and awareness, etc. So has AI achieved this now? That’s the other constant association of “AI” with anything and everything technological and assemblage of keywords and phrases which express intention and agency.

       It rather looks like the thing tripped over something, twice. The person it supposedly attacked (I don’t think it was a woman) did not seem fazed at all, didn’t even step back.
       1. lyman alpha blob February 25, 2025 at 1:47 pm

          The video made me wonder if this “AI” powered robot was like those “self driving ” cars we hear about, where there is actually a team of people controlling them remotely that the tech company doesn’t tell you about.
21. t February 25, 2025 at 10:00 am

    Jo-Ann has devolved into being 50-percent cheap holiday decorations in recent years. Still, it’s not just arts and crafts and Furries and LARPers and cos play, there are still people who sew their own clothes, sew children’s clothes, upholster their own furniture. Jo-Ann is, in any city I’ve lived in, the least white m, most mixed store around.

    Walmarts have sewing sections, but except for a few good scissors, it’s crap.
    1. Eclair February 25, 2025 at 3:12 pm

       Good observation, t.

       Joann’s is (was) big in the southern Chautauqua County community that my husband’s family comes from and where we live in the summer. Most of their fabric was kind of cheap (made in China): synthetics and stiff printed cotton. But it was the only place that stocked a great selection of thread, needles, sewing machine parts, bias tapes, etc. I sewed (and mended and altered) Swedish folk dress for our dance group and the store was essential.

       I hated to shop there in the past few years, due to the grim atmosphere. The staff moved like zombies, apparently wishing they were anywhere else but at Joann’s. I figured the feeling came from the top and was not at all surprised when they entered bankruptcy last year.

       This is the second bankruptcy to hit the region hard: last year the Red Lobster shut its doors. Am now waiting for bad news from The Olive Garden and / or Applebees.

       On the plus side, we how have an enormous Runnings that opened a few years ago: hunting, fishing, farming, horses, garden, live baby chicks! And a new Pizza Hut was given planning board permission, after a contentious meeting, and will open soon. Yay.
22. Mikel February 25, 2025 at 10:19 am

    The U.S. Economy Depends More Than Ever on Rich People – Wall Street Journal. Thomas Ferguson and Servaas Storm have discussed this for some time as a driver in the current inflation.

    Finally…I guess it’s becoming too obvious to deny.
    That’s why the bubbles must be floated. It’s all they’ve got.
23. Mikel February 25, 2025 at 10:26 am

    Elizabeth Holmes fails to overturn her Theranos fraud conviction – Associated Press

    Considering the crew that’s gathered in DC, what are the betting odds of future SBF or Elizabeth Holmes pardons?
    1. ChrisFromGA February 25, 2025 at 10:30 am

       SBF is in a NY prison and rumor has it, his cellmate is Diddy:

       https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/sam-bankman-fried-addresses-musk-email-to-federal-employees-as-he-breaks-his-silence-on-x-after-two-years/ar-AA1zJDVp?ocid=winp2fptaskbarent&cvid=949ec0eaeacb458e8519ab3d79aa6bae&ei=12#comments
       1. Mikel February 25, 2025 at 10:34 am

          Talk about meme coin possibilities!
          1. Wukchumni February 25, 2025 at 11:11 am

             ThasosCoin? (NSFW)

             https://www.vcoins.com/en/stores/sovereign_rarities/263/product/thracian_islands_thasos_silver_stater/1112277/Default.aspx
             1. Mikel February 25, 2025 at 11:18 am

                “Satyr advancing right, in kneeling-running position, carrying a protesting nymph in his arms…”
                Everybody can share the laugh.
                1. mrsyk February 25, 2025 at 11:29 am

                   There’s two sides to that coin. William-Adolphe Bouguereau’s Nymphs and Satyr., also nsfw.
                   1. Mikel February 25, 2025 at 11:39 am

                      “Three nymphs playfully drag a Satyr into a woodland pond, while a fourth calls to her companions in the distance. Satyrs—half-man, half-goat—were reputedly unable to swim”

                      Kind of perfect….that could represent Cassie and others filed suits.
                      1. mrsyk February 25, 2025 at 2:22 pm

                         They’re reputed to have another talent as well. I believe a bath is the desired prerequisite.
                         1. Mikel February 25, 2025 at 2:28 pm

                            So an X-rated coin? Probably works for Diddy as well….
                            1. Wukchumni February 25, 2025 at 8:40 pm

                               There’s nothing numismatically explicit as coins from Thasos.
24. Es s Ce Tera February 25, 2025 at 10:54 am

    re: It is no longer safe to move our governments and societies to US clouds BertHub (Paul R). I cannot fathom why anyone would trust cloud services. You no longer control your data.

    I once was that annoying tech guy who said the same thing.

    My employer at the time accepted my proposal to build an in-house server farm for precisely that reason, control of data. We embarked on building my proposed solution, used scarce real estate to set up a server room, invested in an T1 connection, I personally set up the racks and each and every machine, we were to save costs by using Linux, I reported success every step of the way. I had the air conditioning and power needs sorta figured out but turns out we needed much more of both. However, by the time I was done, I was the most hated person in the place, my maintenance and upkeep/upgrades constantly increasing, hardware depreciating, the organization was left with a very costly system taking up valuable space. And by the way, machines scare people, it’s fear of the unknown.

    Now along comes the Cloud sales guy saying hey, we can take that problem off your hands for a dramatically lower price, no need for crazy space, power and networking needs, no need to rely on the tech guys who are the only ones who can operate the thing – to the point where you just gotta give them whatever they ask for. And more, now we’ll guarantee security and uptime with this legally binding SLA. Now you can manage your budget and finances strategically, take this cost off your books.

    Guess who wins that argument every time?
    1. lyman alpha blob February 25, 2025 at 1:55 pm

       My company switched to the cloud several years ago, against my better judgement, but I’m low on the totem pole and not in IT. My thought at the time was that we already had our own servers and were still an extremely profitable company, so why switch?

       Anything digital can be hacked as far as I know. You probably know better than me, but from a security standpoint, my thought was that someone fairly talented would need to specifically target our company to cause any data breach. In the cloud however, someone could hack the larger cloud database and accidentally acquire our company’s data, along with that of many others too. And if I were a hacker, I’d get a lot more loot and prestige from hacking into a cloud company than by targeting some minor company nobody ever heard of. Does that sound right?
    2. flora February 25, 2025 at 2:05 pm

       My uni department decided to move a lot of its data to Amazon cloud because Amazon was at the time offering free storage, free data backups, and free tech support. It looked like free data storage, less need to buy more data disks and servers, offloading data security responsibility to a 3rd party, and needing fewer in-house IT people. I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop. I believe Amazon is now charging for the data storage service. / ;)
       1. Camacho February 25, 2025 at 4:28 pm

          The only free cheese is in the mousetrap.
    3. Yves Smith Post authorFebruary 26, 2025 at 8:14 am

       Fortunately we are a tiny company and have been able to find webhosts who back up to servers they control as opposed to a cloud behemoth.
    4. Taurus February 27, 2025 at 5:44 am

       Physical possession of the hardware is 90% of the law :)

       “The cloud” really means “a hard drive somewhere in Virginia”. A really expensive hard drive I might add :)
25. Carolinian February 25, 2025 at 11:07 am

    Interesting transit article. The author posits some benefits

    “Transit shines brightest as a positive amplifier of societal benefits, such as: higher quality of living, lower economic burdens, higher property tax rolls, creation of new job markets and opportunities, reduction of health inequities, and promotion of social cohesion. These benefits are abstract fabrics which bind a modern society together. They are the magical spells that hypnotizes everyday riders into becoming its strongest advocates and champions, as they can see, for the first time, the invisible strings which transit binds to create a better society.”

    Having lived in NYC for awhile I’m not sure I felt more socially connected by taking the subway. It’s main appeal seemed to be convenience and speed. And in fact the author may be putting the cart before the horse since you need social cohesion first and that makes mass transit more possible. That’s a very big ask these days.

    And finally the author starts by mentioning the big drops in ridership worldwide due to Covid but then drops that angle.

    No question cars are becoming increasingly expensive and even dangerous to own but mass transit has its own practical problems in our very spread out America. Perhaps the foggy future will be one with less mobility in general other than our ever dependable legs.
    1. CanCyn February 25, 2025 at 12:22 pm

       You’re totally right about cart before horse….I’m afraid Bill Mahar might be right on this one – “Nobody wants to take the bus with the poor people” I don’t remember Thatcher’s exact words but something about a man being unsuccessful if he takes the bus. And unfortunately many people see it that way even if they won’t say those words aloud
       1. dday February 25, 2025 at 4:04 pm

          I take the bus almost daily and I see it as a very very long stretch limousine. Most of my fellow VIP’s are intent on looking at a small electronic device in their hands, sometimes even using their thumbs for some kind of operation.

          Here in Tucson the transit system has been free since the pandemic started and still is five years on. Albuquerque and Kansas City are also still zero fare.
26. flora February 25, 2025 at 11:09 am

    Taibbi and Kirn, ATW. no paywall. utube.

    America This Week Monday Livestream 2/24/25

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zICeoqq2J2g
    1. Glen February 25, 2025 at 11:52 am

       Thanks for the link – watching it now.

       We’re lucky to have power this morning, a storm blew through last night:

       Windstorm damage: extensive power outages and road closures hit western Washington
       https://www.king5.com/article/weather/weather-impact/western-washington-mass-power-outages/281-9dbe6b27-8e84-416a-87cf-e3ae9314557d

       It looks like about half the county was knocked out. It’s almost as bad as the storm the PNW had last November. It seems like these “bomb cyclones” are getting much more common.
27. LawnDart February 25, 2025 at 11:33 am

    Re; Class Warfare or Climate Chaos…Imperial Collapse Watch? A mix of all three:

    Energy Costs Surge Across the United States

    Electricity prices are on the rise, with this winter’s energy expenditures in the United States projected to be a full 10% higher than this time last year. While initial projections had expected residential energy spending to fall this year, a combination of frigid weather and rising prices is hurting many Americans at the meter. U.S. energy prices are rising so rapidly that they are outpacing inflation, and have reached a 5% annual increase.

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Energy-Costs-Surge-Across-the-United-States.html

    Most renters have little ability to modify their dwelling into one that’s more energy-efficient, but I suppose that the same can be said for many homeowners, albeit for different reasons. A thousand cuts, indeed.
    1. neutrino23 February 25, 2025 at 12:51 pm

       “ Most renters have little ability to modify their dwelling into one that’s more energy-efficient” …

       I would disagree. True, as a renter you wouldn’t make permanent changes, still, you could hang heavy curtains over windows, hang blankets on walls that feel cold, put up plastic sheets over doors, fill any obvious holes that are admitting cold air, seal up one room and heat it with a space heater rather than heating the whole house, use an electric blanket at night rather than heating the whole house.

       As a home owner you could get a FLIR infrared camera attachment for your iPhone for a couple hundred dollars. Maybe go in with a group of friends to share the cost. Use this to check out your home for heat leaks and fix those.

       Vacuum off the coils on your refrigerator (carefully) and check that the door seals tightly. Replace the gasket if needed.

       I’m sure this is just scratching the surface of what you can do.
       1. LawnDart February 25, 2025 at 3:05 pm

          Yes, with regards to rentals, I was referring to more permanent changes, but the suggestion you offer are spot-on, and I’ll add that a knit cap worn while sleeping can be a wonderful thing. Also, when possible, checking a unit’s previous years utility bills prior to signing a rental-agreement or lease can save one from nasty surprises.
28. Ignacio February 25, 2025 at 12:54 pm

    A mystery illness in Congo has killed more than 50 people hours after they felt sick.

    Well, please stop eating bats!- Now, it would be very important see if there is any spread to people who does not eat bats, let’s say, infected via residual waters for instance.
    1. ambrit February 25, 2025 at 1:29 pm

       The Congo, sad venue of man’s worst acts. It cannot help that the country is having yet another civil war. Not for nothing does Saint John place Death alongside War in the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
       As Pliny the Elder put it: “There is always something new out of Africa.”
29. Mikel February 25, 2025 at 1:52 pm

    A dangerous new international order is unfolding – Guardian
    The opening:
    “A torrent of abrupt US policy reversals, resets and revisions since Donald Trump returned to the White House last month has left America’s friends and enemies struggling to keep up.”

    Take this with a dose of The New Atlas post today:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fuq900YIlp8/
    The US-EU “Division of Labor” to Continue Confronting Russia & China

    Look at the timeline at the beginning around 2:18 and get where he’s going with this video.
    The memory bank nudge for the day: The Obama Administration and Hillary Clinton’s 2009 “reset” with Russia after the set up of Georgia as a proxy in the early 2000s.

    (And I’m still of the mind that “division of labor” also involves US-EU confronting their populations. It has to be a main priority because Russia and China can’t be controlled without the West maintaining control of their populations. Despite all the warmongering and policy papers, I can still see US-EU easing tensions with China and/or Russia before they ever ease the tensions with workers.)
    1. jobs February 25, 2025 at 10:46 pm

       This is why I suspect one of the goals of all these information hoovering (Palantir, Oracle, etc.), surveillance and “AI” efforts is lots of “Metalheads” (my favorite dystopian “Black Mirror” episode).
30. AG February 25, 2025 at 2:01 pm

    re: Germany BSW mail-in ballots

    The story is not over yet:

    German original:
    https://multipolar-magazin.de/meldungen/0191

    4.97 percent: BSW doubts the legitimacy of the election result

    Result fell below 5 percent limit shortly before the end of the count / Party wants to have legality “legally examined” / De Masi: Germans living abroad significantly prevented from voting / Irregularities in counting in Aachen
    February 24, 2025

    Berlin.
    (multipolar)

    The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) failed to enter the Bundestag. According to the Federal Returning Officer, the BSW received 2,468,670 votes, which corresponds to a share of 4.972 percent. During the counting on the night of Monday, the share initially remained at 5.0 percent for a long time. According to the Federal Returning Officer, the BSW share was 5.0 percent at 0:28 a.m., one hour before the end of the count. Even at 0:57 a.m., after 284 of the 299 constituencies had been counted, the value was still 5.0 percent. Seven minutes later, at 1:04 a.m., after six more constituencies had been counted, the figure fell to 4.987 percent. By the time the last constituencies had been counted at 1:33 a.m., the reported share had continued to fall to the final result of 4.972 percent. Screenshots of the interim results of the count from the Federal Returning Officer’s website are available to Multipolar.

    According to Tagesschau, the BSW is around 14,000 votes short of entering the Bundestag. The broadcaster n-tv says it is 13,435 votes short. BSW politician Fabio de Masi questioned the legitimacy of the result and said he “fears that this election will still keep Karlsruhe busy”: “13,000 votes are around 6 percent of the 213,000 Germans living abroad registered in the electoral register who were significantly prevented from voting,” criticised de Masi.

    There were indeed delays in sending the voting documents to voters living abroad. “T-online” reported that “probably thousands of them were unable to cast their vote” “simply because there was not enough time to submit the postal voting documents on time”. One day before the election, the German ambassador to Great Britain, Miguel Berger, reported on “X” that “no voting documents had arrived” at his place in London and that many Germans abroad were “unable to exercise their right to vote” because “deadlines had been calculated too tightly”.

    There are also initial indications of irregularities in the counting. Andrej Hunko, a BSW member of the Bundestag from Aachen, explained to Multipolar that in an Aachen constituency, “(almost) all BSW votes were awarded to the Alliance for Germany .” The Alliance for Germany is a right-wing conservative splinter party.

    BSW politician de Masi explained : “The Bundestag’s electoral committee is initially responsible for complaints. Then the way to Karlsruhe is open.” Iris Sayram, correspondent in the ARD capital studio and legal advisor to the rbb directorate, commented on “X” that a legal clarification was “not out of the question”. The Berlin state election officer and professor of political and administrative sciences Stephan Bröchler told “T-online” that he expected complaints to be made to the Bundestag’s electoral committee, which “will probably end up in Karlsruhe later”. During the course of Monday morning (February 24), BSW co-chair Amira Mohamed Ali announced : “We will now have the matter examined legally.”

    The departure of the FDP and BSW makes a coalition government of the CDU and SPD possible. If another party were to enter the Bundestag, a third coalition partner would be needed to achieve a majority.

    p.s. BSW has officially asked everyone to contact them if they have helpful info on this issue. Knowing how cowardly German legislation is I doubt they give this a chance – just imagine the what-if scenario…
    1. AG February 25, 2025 at 7:26 pm

       BERLINER ZEITUNG interview with former Berlin MP and lawyer Marcel Luthe who had filed for repeating the Berlin local elections successfully in 2021 after inconsistencies during the first election had been discovered.

       Luthe now intends to do the same with the national elections from Sunday.

       complete German-language interview:
       25/2/25
       https://archive.is/OTJai

       Excerpts:

       What are people saying?

       The main focus is on the amateurish planning and implementation of postal voting, both in Germany and for Germans living abroad. Not only were many applications not processed or not processed in time, but applications to be included in the voter register were delayed or processed incorrectly. What is remarkable here is the nonchalance with which some officials admitted that it was their mistake – but now people just can’t vote and should keep quiet.

       (…)

       
       Mr. Luthe, you have called for irregularities in the federal election to be reported to the Good Governance Union. How many letters have come in so far?

       We should differentiate between the reports from our members in ministries and administration and those from voters who are directly affected. The former are sometimes very extensive and report – for example from the Federal Statistical Office – on a wide range of previously known, avoidable election errors that must finally have consequences for those responsible. There have been around 30 so far. And then there are the individual observations of “normal” citizens, many Germans living abroad. There are now more than 1,000 reports.

       (…)

       Do you believe that the election would have to be repeated in whole or in part if the challenge is successful?

       “Belief” is not the category. If the home-made election errors are confirmed as they currently seem to be, the election must be repeated if Germany is to be democratic. Consider what a disastrous picture it creates when hundreds of thousands of Germans living abroad – who often tend to vote for opposition parties – are excluded from the right to vote because of errors made by the government itself that are favorable to the government.
31. AG February 25, 2025 at 3:20 pm

    re: Israel USA

    Biden, Blinken & Austin Accused of Complicity in Israeli War Crimes in Gaza; ICC Urged to Investigate
    https://www.democracynow.org/2025/2/25/dawn_icc_blinken_austin_biden_palestine
32. AG February 25, 2025 at 3:53 pm

    re: USAID Nicaragua

    Is USAID a “Criminal Organization?”—In Nicaragua, the Evidence Suggests It Is
    By
    John Perry
    (John Perry is based in Masaya, Nicaragua and writes for the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, London Review of Books, FAIR and elsewhere.)

    February 25, 2025

    https://covertactionmagazine.com/2025/02/25/is-usaid-a-criminal-organization-in-nicaragua-the-evidence-suggests-it-is/
33. XXYY February 25, 2025 at 4:38 pm

    I cannot fathom why anyone would trust cloud services. You no longer control your data.

    I had the same reaction within 5 seconds of hearing about this idea back in the late 90s. The weirdest thing was hearing corporate IT talking about this as a realistic idea. Not only is the storage of your business data beyond your control, but you need to transport your data back and forth across God knows what data transmission path.

    I talked to some of our IT people about it over the years when I had a chance. Mostly it came down to being cheaper, and requiring less staff to manage. These are the usual factors at work in corporate change. I would say there have been fewer disasters than I expected over the years, though unfortunately there’s no reliable way to know when a data loss or corruption disaster is happening.

    A closely related change is software-as-service (“SOS”) where in the software you are running is installed and run on servers that are off-premises, usually under the control of the maker of the software. This was the precursor of the “subscription model” for software, where you pay an annual fee instead of buying a version of the software one time. The thing that it people like about it is it’s not their job to manage software upgrades or keep the tools running 24/7. This can be attractive for companies with a small IT staff, but has similar problems about business critical work happening somewhere that’s not under control of your business.
34. AG February 25, 2025 at 5:11 pm

    Wow, a new low point of the LONDON REVIEW OF BOOKS in its Ukraine reporting.

    19 February 2025
    An Enemy to Its Friends
    James Meek
    https://www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2025/february/an-enemy-to-its-friends
35. The Rev Kev February 25, 2025 at 8:07 pm

    “Venezuela Produces 97% of Products Sold in Supermarkets”

    I guess that this is why Venezuela has had so many attacks against their electricity grid. You can’t sanction and starve them of food anymore – like was done with the Syrians – as they have made themselves food secure at home. And as the Russian Federation has demonstrated, if you make yourself an autarky in as many ways as possible you really make yourself more secure and less vulnerable to the maniacs of this world.
36. Fig Neutrons February 26, 2025 at 2:23 am

    Russia “slow-rolling the war” is a perplexing description, considering the amount of dead souls Putin is attempting to mortgage. Not too much talk about them, but they matter, particularly to those still fighting.

    Russia is uncharacteristically frank about the astounding numbers (probably because actually saying it out loud gets you thrown out your own window). First, by law, Russian soldiers cannot resign. Therefore, the only means by which there is Russian force reduction is through significant trauma, possibly followed by death. By law, the Russian army is authorized to outfit 2,389,139 men this year. Given the Russian army recruits 30,000 or more new soldiers per month, as they claim, and no soldiers are voluntarily exiting service, to where are all the soldiers going? Inputs and outputs. The army has attrited 800,000 Russian casualties, a conservative figure using the Kremlin’s own numbers.

    Side note: when Trump blurted “a million” killed, he seems to mistaking the total casualty figures for the total KIA figures. But it’s just as plausible he isn’t. The grind also disappeared the DNR impressment and those penal battalions, well…

    Advertised contract signing bonuses have steadily increased, meaning most Russian men don’t take the bait and volunteer. Why else would the bonuses increase if not to mitigate recruiting difficulties? Only the young and naive believe they can come through the other side of this inferno. Russian demographics are light in these young people born in the economically distressed late 90s, early 2000s, which makes the even younger generation especially vital. Dying with them are all their future earning years — Slow-rolled? Or steam-rolled?
    1. Yves Smith Post authorFebruary 26, 2025 at 7:45 am

       Perhaps you need to get out and read more plugged-in sources.

       First, the Russian General Staff, as reported repeatedly by John Helmer, is frustrated that it is not being allowed to prosecute the war at a much faster pace. This is confirmed by MANY reports on Russian Telegram, which has a bias towards Russia hawks, and other Russia experts, such as Mark Sleboda.

       Second, support for the war in Russia continues to be high and rising, according to WESTERN organizations. So you tender concerns for the cost to Russians is not shared by them:

       The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that the Russian public is “increasingly supportive” of continuing the war until Ukraine’s full capitulation, with 46% now rejecting the withdrawal of Russian troops, according to a Chronicles poll conducted between 5-13 February.

       https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/02/25/isw-poll-shows-russians-increasingly-support-war-on-ukraine-despite-economic-toll/

       Third, of course recruitment bonuses would have to increase a lot. Did you miss that Russia has a lot of inflation right now, but real wages are more than keeping up? To merely keep up the same level of pay increases across Russian society, Russia would need to put through significant increases.

       Better trolls, please.
    2. duckies February 26, 2025 at 7:53 am

       The army has attrited 800,000 Russian casualties, a conservative figure using the Kremlin’s own numbers.

       Is that you Mr. President?
    3. KD February 27, 2025 at 7:14 am

       First, by law, Russian soldiers cannot resign. Therefore, the only means by which there is Russian force reduction is through significant trauma, possibly followed by death.

       First, Russia has conscript soldiers and contract soldiers.

       Looking to the not-so-pro-Russia ISW:

       Russian conscripts typically serve one year.

       https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/explainer-russian-conscription-reserve-and-mobilization

       Guess what, after a year, the conscript leaves, unless they decide to contract with the army.

       Likewise, contract soldiers serve for a contractual term, like volunteer forces everywhere, so when the term is up, they are free.

       Putin’s first mobilization after setbacks in 2022 mobilized selected military reservists, that is people with contracts in the army reserves (Russia supposedly has 2 million person reserve, but most are not active reserves I believe).

       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_mobilization

       From ISW article above:

       In 2021, the Russian military started a new initiative to remedy its lack of a ready reserve, the Russian Combat Army Reserve (BARS-2021). BARS-2021 aimed to establish an active reserve by recruiting volunteer reservists for three-year contract service.[15] BARS-2021 operated on the same principle as US and NATO reserves, where reservists actively train and are compensated. The concept of BARS-2021 was that volunteer Russian reservists would regularly participate in monthly exercises and maintain their mobilization readiness while maintaining their civilian jobs.

       Even looking at blatant propaganda like this article:

       https://thedefensepost.com/2025/01/31/russian-troops-renew-contract/

       . . . the thesis is that Russia is using threats of relocation to high-risk frontlines to persuade contract soldiers to re-enlist and extend their terms indicates that even in the NAFO propaganda realm, no one accepts your claim that the only way out of the Russian army is feet first-although your point does demonstrate that the absolute possible limit of Russian casualties can be no more than 800,000 in the absence of troops ending terms of contract or conscription, and you would need data on the levels of numbers ending contract/conscription terms to subtract from that number to come to figures on sanitary losses. Obviously, if you have 2.3 million or something soldiers, some portion of which are 1 year conscripts, and the remainder on 3 or 4 year contracts, you are at minimum probably going to see at least 25% reduction from conscripts leaving and contract soldiers not re-enlisting, so probably at least 500 or 600K, suggesting realistically the limit is probably 250,000 and probably lower. Given Russian air dominance, FAB capability, artillery overload and drone superiority (mostly), it would be shocking if the kill ratio isn’t at least 3 to 1 Ukrainian losses to Russian counterparts, and so this number is probably too high, assuming this conflict is consistent with all modern wars since Napoleon in which 2/3rds of deaths are generally from indirect fire.

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