Germans will go to the polls in less than a month after the collapse of the hapless government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The German economy is in an awful state with no reason for hope on the horizon. There are cases to be made for long structural issues and mismanagement, but the answer to the country’s current malaise lies in the wreckage of the Nord Stream pipelines on the bottom of the Baltic Sea.
Not only did the loss of the cheap and reliable pipeline gas from Russia blow up the German economic model but the omerta among the political-media class over the likely US involvement in the destruction of Nord Stream represents all that has continued to plague Germany ever since.
A brief sampling of the fallout:
Real household consumption in Germany has been hammered.
chart via @NicolasGoetzman pic.twitter.com/A6YQX19rNt
— Philipp Heimberger (@heimbergecon) December 2, 2024
A quarter of the 84 million Germans’ income is insufficient to make ends meet. Despite all this, it has not led to a rethink (yet) of Germany’s subservient relationship to the US and the accompanying belligerence towards Russia.
The delusion only grows.
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock’s office is taking a lead role in trying to ramp up militarization of the Baltic Sea and sanctions against tankers transporting Russian oil without Western insurance — although it looks like her and other hawkish Atlanticists are starting to get some pushback from some Blob actors the US. There’s also talk of the EU going hat in hand to Russia and asking to buy pipeline gas again; that could also be part of an effort to keep the Americans in and profiting from energy sales to Europe.
Meanwhile here’s the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, a Berlin think tank that advises the Bundestag and federal government, telling us that it’s the Russian economy that is in trouble.
While the German election approaches, there is a heavy focus in the country on the issue of immigration with some parties like the Alternative for Germany, Christian Democratic Union and the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance pledging a tougher stance than others like the Social Democrats and the Greens.
While immigration comes out on top in most polls of voters’ most important issues, we can see that the economic situation, energy, and inflation and wages — all issues directly affected by Berlin’s Russia policy — are a combined 58 percent.
The following article will focus primarily on Germany’s foreign policy and specifically if any of the political parties will take the country (and therefore to a certain extent, Europe) in a different direction?
The AfD Firewall Comes Down
For a long time it looked like the Alternative for Germany party was the one to do so.
The party that started out as an anti-EU and morphed more into an anti-immigrant has long been hated and feared by the German political-media establishment. Yes, it has a small core support from neo Nazis, but the real reason was its anti-NATO stance, brutal honesty about Berlin being a “slave” to the US, and a desire to make nice with Moscow seeing as it is in the national interest of Germany to do so.
Well, last month the AfD adopted a motion in support of Germany and the US building closer relations.
And now lo and behold the “firewall” against the AfD is coming down at the national level. The CDU on January 29th passed — with votes from the AfD — a non-binding motion aimed at turning back illegal and undocumented migrants at the nation’s borders. Chaos ensued. The “center” parties have nothing to run on other than AfD “threat to democracy” and so they are. They vigorously denounced the CDU for destroying democracy by cooperating with the AfD. There were protests around the country, which led to the evacuation of CDU headquarters in Berlin and the occupation of the CDU office in Hanover:
🇩🇪🚨 Left-wing extremists storm CDU headquarters in Hanover – police speak of “dynamic situation”
Left-wing extremist activists have stormed the CDU district headquarters in Hanover. They scaled the balcony, set off Bengalos and attached protest banners while blocking access.… pic.twitter.com/im4OQcpNYb
— Barong (@Barong369) January 31, 2025
On Friday the Influx Limitation Act, which would limit migration to Germany, failed following the uproar and refusal of the Greens, SPD, and others to negotiate with the CDU. The fallout from Merz’s dance with the AfD remains to be seen. Will it motivate voters for the SPD, Greens and other “center” parties? Will it stop CDU voters from migrating to the AfD? As of now, the AfD is gaining slightly in the polls:
And as German current affairs commentator Eugypius points out, the uproar and refusal of the rest of the “center” to work with the CDU now provides “an excuse to force the Union parties to vote with AfD yet again” — and potentially form a government together.
This continues a trend of the “center” effectively ushering the AfD into power. Let us count the ways Scholz’s government put out the welcome mat: They brought in record levels of immigrants during a housing crisis and while the government is cutting social spending and torpedoing the economy with its Russia energy policies. Oh, and when voters looking for an alternative turn to the AfD they howl about the sanctity of democracy while threatening to ban the party.
Despite the awfulness and ineptitude of the German “center” it is now an open question if the AfD name is a misnomer — at least on its policy towards Germany’s American overlords. Its embrace of Elon Musk and the Trump administration calls into question its nationalist bona fides. For example, will the AfD remain opposed to the stationing of US medium range missiles in Germany if the Trump administration wants them there as part of a maximum pressure campaign against Moscow?
We’re likely seeing the “Melonization” of the AfD. The Italian Prime Minister and her Brothers of Italy party came to power in 2022 amid howls of fascism, but instead of a new march on Rome, Meloni was more a model of how to use faux nationalism to rebrand American vassalage. She’s been one of the empire’s more dutiful subjects with regards to Russia and China, selling off Italian publicly-owned assets, and has made sure capital in Italy maintains its access to exploitable immigrant labor — and she looks set to become even more servile under Trump.
Despite the AfD’s embrace of the US, there’s still talk of the party being a bridge between Washington and Moscow. It’s easy to forget now, but Meloni was once supposed to perform that role as well, picking up the long tradition of Italy of maintaining strong ties with both sides. She was a long opponent of sanctions on Russia due to the need to protect Italian exports and its energy interests, and shortly before the beginning of Russia’s special military operation, she said it was essential it was to remain on good terms with Moscow and accused Biden of “using foreign policy to cover up the problems he has at home.” That all changed once she became prime minister in October of 2022, and Italians are worse off because of it.
With the AfD’s embrace of the US and the CDU reaching across the firewall to pass legislation last week, it looks increasingly possible — if not likely — that the AfD will join a CDU-led government following the upcoming elections.
What will the party represent if they get there?
Where the party has yet to compromise is in its insistence that today’s Germany should rid itself of any remnants of collective guilt for the horrors of the Nazis.
Elon Musk agrees, saying two days before the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz (Russia was not invited to the commemoration event despite the Red Army liberating the camp) that Germany should ‘move beyond Nazi guilt.’
The way the AfD wants that process to unfold is remarkably similar to what has been going on in the West and former USSR states for years. Rehabilitation of Nazis started in 1945, but really picked up steam over the past few decades.
As we highlighted at the time, Elon Musk and AfD co-chair Alice Weidel’s X history lesson equating communism with Nazism was right in line with the “rules-based international order’s” longtime efforts to rehabilitate fascists, blame the Russians for WWII, and rewrite history in Ukraine, other former Soviet states, and increasingly in the West itself.
Musk and Weidel are propagating a historical view that fits right in with Atlanticists who have been so busy for so long trying to equate WWII-era Nazism and communism. While originally more of a fringe view, it started to go more mainstream in 2008 when the European Parliament adopted a resolution establishing August 23 as the “European Day of Remembrance for the victims of Stalinism and Nazism” — effectively equating the two Also called Black Ribbon Day, the US in 2019 adopted a resolution to observe the date.
The same year, the European Parliament went even further and adopted a resolution “on the importance of European Remembrance for the Future of Europe.” It proclaims that the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was responsible for World War II, and consequently that Soviet Russia is as guilty of the war as Nazi Germany.
As Efraim Zuroff, director of the Simon Wiesenthal Centre, told the Guardian way back in 2009:
“People need to wake up to what is going on. This attempt to create a false symmetry between communism and the Nazi genocide is aimed at covering up these countries’ participation in mass murder.”
I think it does more than that. While the USSR might be long gone, this rewriting of history to turn the liberators of Europe (the Soviets) into villains makes fascists the victims and feeds into modern Russophobia. Case in point:
❗️“My Nazi grandfather was killed by Russian partisans. Now I don’t like Russia” – Member of the Bundestag openly and proudly tells about her Nazi grandfather.
The hatred of European politicians towards Russia is caused by the fact that the Soviet Union decided to resist Nazi… pic.twitter.com/e70wpmyjS2
— Zlatti71 (@Zlatti_71) May 1, 2024
The EU’s genocide-supporting, anti-free-speech, war-with-russia “center” has been embracing this right kind of “right” for some time — from Armenia to the Baltics and of course Ukraine. They have been nurturing it across the West, and we’re now a step away from open declarations to fulfil Hitler’s quest for lebensraum.
And how does the German center respond? Scholz had this to say about the world’s richest man putting his finger on the scale for the AfD and helping spread the rewriting of German WWII history far and wide: “If you look at the print press in Germany, you will see that there are many billionaires that also intervene in politics. That’s not new. What is new is that he is intervening in favor of right-wing politicians all over Europe. And this is really disgusting.”
Perhaps the AfD deserved some benefit of the doubt before considering how the establishment media comes down like a ton of bricks on any hint of inside threat to the “rules-based order,” and one could argue some of the party’s considerable baggage was worth the cost in order to break the US stranglehold over Europe.
But by aligning itself with the US, what does the party offer other than a rebrand of Germany’s vassalage?
On the bright side, the AfD’s turn likely means less work for the European Commission. Following the December overturning of the election in Romania, European officials were casually talking about Germany being at risk of the same bogus social media “disinformation” as Romania — the implication being that the will of the German voters could be similarly cancelled if too many of them choose the wrong party. While the Commission is still running “stress tests” of social media platforms in Germany ahead of the election, it’s unlikely it concocts a half-baked operation like in Romania against the an AfD in the good graces of the Trump administration.
Sahra Wagenknecht Tries to Crash the Party
While the other parties have differences in economic, immigration, and climate policies, they are all more or less united in their slavishness to the US and antagonism toward Russia.
There is one exception.
Despite only forming at the beginning of last year, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) picked up between 10 and 15 percent in three federal-state elections last year — although they were on formerly East German turf friendlier to the party.
While doing well for a newcomer, BSW is struggling in the polls to get above the five-percent barrier to gain seats in the new parliament and is far from being a player in coalition building. Nonetheless, should it get there Wagenknecht has vowed to do all she can to block militarization spending.
The partiy’s election manifesto “Our Country Deserves More!” correctly diagnoses the war in Ukraine as “a proxy war between Russia and the US”.
Elsewhere the party manifesto calls for EU powers being transferred back to national states and no new countries joining the EU — especially not Ukraine.
And the party calls for restrictions on immigration, at least until Germany gets its house in order and can find a better way to integrate arrivals.
Yet BSW hasn’t gained the traction that the AfD has.
Despite all the media efforts to lump Wagenknecht and the AfD together as Kremlin-controlled, anti-democratic far-right threats, the parties are largely polar opposites. Just a few examples:
- BSW proposes a fairer tax system that benefits the working class, such as the demand for an excess profits tax in the industrial sector. The AfD wants to slash taxes across the board, including those that are progressive and serve to redistribute wealth, such as the inheritance tax
- BSW believes in global warming and wants to continue to take climate action but work to soften the economic blow to the working class. The AfD rejects climate science. In its EU election manifesto, it says that the “claim of a threat through human-made climate change” is “CO2 hysterics,” and it would do away with climate laws that reduce prosperity and freedoms.
- BSW wants a higher national minimum wage and pensions, cheaper and better public transport, more social housing, a national rent cap, more money for education and health, free school meals, stronger consumer protection, the scrapping of VAT on essential foodstuffs. The AfD wants none of this and stresses the limits of the state’s role.
One can only wonder why Musk and Vice President JD Vance spoke out in favor of the upstart AfD and not Wagenknecht.
The Question Bigger than this Election
Where do Germans go if/when the new government makes no progress in turning the ship around?
The reality is much of Germany’s fortunes depend on Washington. Even if the Trump administration finds some agreement with Moscow over Ukraine and wider spheres of influence, will it bring reprieve for Germans?
The US is accelerating extraction efforts from its vassals, which will continue regardless of an agreement with Russia. See Trump’s efforts to force NATO members to up military spending to five percent of GDP, buy more US oil and LNG, an American tech takeover of the EU, using Europe as chess piece in the confrontation with China, and all the while poaching European industry.
Meanwhile there’s increasing talk from all corners about reforming the country’s debt brake — Germany’s constitutional limit on government spending. The brake played a central role in the downfall of the last government when it struck down a workaround attempt. Coalition infighting over spending plans stressed by Ukraine aid, weapons purchases, and energy crisis relief ultimately collapsed the government.
Should Germany say goodbye to the debt brake, where will the borrowed money go? To rebuild the crumbling Deutsche Bahn or more reckless wagers on the collapsing of Russia and into the pockets of American oligarchs?
Merz says military expansion will be a budgetary priority.
After the past three years of social spending cuts in order to pay for more military purchases, Project Ukraine, and self-inflicted energy debacles, Merz says it was redistributive. It was — upwards — but that isn’t what he’s talking about, and he promises his government will right the ship by cutting social spending and attracting more private investment in the economy. Okay, then.
On foreign policy, while he talks tough against Russia his moves will largely be dictated by Washington, although he says his government will be more willing to wade deeper into the conflict. Just as important, he’s eager to take a more active role in the empire’s confrontation with China even if it means more pain for German businesses.
Essentially this means that regardless of the makeup of the next government — whether an AfD-CDU coalition or a grand variety of the CDU-SPD-Greens — the standard of living for the majority of Germans will continue declining.
And that’s probably a best-case scenario.
For a glimpse of a worse version we can turn to Professor Sergey Karaganov, honorary chairman of Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, and academic supervisor at the School of International Economics and Foreign Affairs Higher School of Economics in Moscow. He writes the following:
Sending Ukrainian cannon fodder to slaughter, they are preparing a new one—Eastern Europeans from a number of Balkan states, Romania and Poland. They have begun to deploy mobile bases, where contingents of potential landsknechts are trained. They will try to continue the war not only to the “last Ukrainian”, but soon to the “last Eastern European”…
…the sooner the better it is necessary to announce that our patience, our readiness to sacrifice our men for the sake of victory over this bastard will soon run out and we will announce the price—for every killed Russian soldier, a thousand Europeans will die if they do not stop indulging their rulers who are waging war against Russia. We need to tell the Europeans directly: your elites will make the next portion of cannon fodder out of you, and in the event of the transition of the war to the nuclear level, we will not be able to protect the civilian population of Europe, as we are trying to do in Ukraine. We will warn about strikes, as promised by Vladimir Putin, but nuclear weapons are even less selective than conventional weapons. Of course, at the same time, the European elites must be confronted with the fact: they, their places of residence, will become the first targets for nuclear retaliation strikes. It will not be possible to sit it out.
A grim scenario, although an understandable position when one considers that it is Western aid and arms propping up Kiev and killing Russians. It’s not just Trump who can make threats.
Will anyone in the next German government heed the types of warnings coming from Karaganov?
It would appear not as the likely next chancellor Merz is an Atlanticist to the bone and takes a hard line against Russia. The Greens and SPD remain subservient to Washington, and the AfD is now in the pocket of Musk and Trump.
While it looks increasingly likely that the AfD “firewall” could come down, and it could join the CDU-led government, what happens when the German economy continues to sink? And how much longer will the transatlantic facade hold until the relationship starts to receive more serious pushback?
And can it be done successfully by democratic means?
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It is decided in Washington and Moscow.
If everything goes smoothly, there will be an election in Germany this month. Then there will be a meeting between Trump and Putin, and the following day the name of the new german chancellor will be made public.
There must be a certain agreement between Washington and Moscow for the “Reunited Germany” to work properly. Otherwise the german economy and politics will be paralyzed, as it is the case since 2022.
The strategic defeat the USA were looking for during the last two years was nothing but a sort of renegotiation of the settlment that decided the fate of Germany in 1990. It seems the USA have given up their dreams, for the time being at least.
Concerning Germany there’s a wild card and that is Ukraine where I write from. Although I follow alternative media I was not prepared for what I found here. All organized opposition has long ago been suppressed and the media both tightly controlled and financed by the West. On the surface and in the center of Kiev things look quiet. But if you probe a little deeper you find widespread despair and opposition to the war. It is hardly possible to overstate how brittle the current regime is. I talked to a dozen “normal” people and I didn´t find any one who supported the war. On the contrary.
If Putin plays his cards right he will demand free elections in Ukraine in return for a cease fire and an end to the suppression of the left opposition. Selensky and the nationalists will be toast. The Neonazi battaillons will not be able to impose their will on the majority anymore. Then the whole narrative in Germany will come crashing down and take the ruling caste with it. The confrontation with Russia was never popular in Germany but accepted as the price for stopping Putin and helping plucky little Selensky. Once it becomes clear that the story is much, much more complicated and as much about Germany (Nordstream) as well as Russia people will start to ask very awkward questions. The biggest chemical factory in the world in Ludwigshafen which was based in Russian gas is being dismantled as we speak and there are many more such examples of very well paying industrial jobs being lost for what in hindsight will be perceived as having been nothing. I don´t want to be in the shoes of those who were responsible for this. The anger will be tremendous.
Great analysis! I don’t know about the German public ever getting angry at their ruling class. I am very skeptical of bottom-up movements producing anything positive for Europe because their media are, as a practical matter, controlled by US intel and corporate oligarchs. To put it bluntly, they will do as they are told until the media landscape changes dramatically in Europe to the extent it has changed in the USA where a bottom-up movement has produced a genuine change agent. Also, in the USA there is a safety-net for democracy called the Second Amendment–the Washington forces can only go so far before opposition builds on the basis of an armed public. That does not mean that public is right or wrong it’s just a very different dynamic in the USA than in Europe were publics seem more easily led by the nose. Europe, and Germany at its center is, to be blunt, short on virtue, creativity, and dynamism so it depends on the USA to give it a senses of direction. They are the Greeks to the US were to the Romans–charming and “educated” and filled with culture, but weak politically and militarily. No matter who the winners are in this month’s election Germany and the rest of Europe will do as they are told by Washington whether it’s Trump or someone else.
Thank you Tom67. I very much appreciate your insights from Ukraine being nearly impossible to grasp anything from MSM outlets except PR stuff. Your second paragraph is very optimistic, possibly too optimistic on the narrative crashing down, while the ruling elites control everything, MSM included. Not than it cannot happen but it will probably take for longer and only after more and more Germans are submerged in poverty (the same for any other European country).
One cannot expect better times coming in the foreseeable future. Conor: a colourful essay despite the sadness it instils.
I hope the anger is indeed tremendous, but in NRW where I live, the official narrative of the war being Putin’s fault and not due to NATO expansion, the 2014 Maidan coup etc. is very very entrenched. It will take alot of work to educate people.
I do think that the polls seriously underestimate the support for the AfD because the worst thing here you can be called is a ‘nazi’ , and shortly behind that is ‘ AfD – nah’ . This means alot of their supporters are keeping schtumm.
Many thanks for the analysis. The theme of Italian politics and reactions is accurate, as always. An important point to keep in mind with Meloni, besides her own ambitions, is that she has to deal with coalition partners Matteo Salvini (Tump fanboi) and Antonio Tajani (a serious politician in spite of years of servitude to the Berlusconi). And she’s lucky in having Elly Schlein, the Kamala Harris of Italian politics, as the “leader” of the opposition.
This is the key to the current crisis of Northern Europe: “Not only did the loss of the cheap and reliable pipeline gas from Russia blow up the German economic model but the omerta among the political-media class over the likely US involvement in the destruction of Nord Stream represents all that has continued to plague Germany ever since.”
Germany is being treated as a colony by the U S of A, in part because of long-standing loss of sovereignty. The post-WWII arrangement into the BRG and DDR was an agreed-upon loss of sovereignty to save the Germans from further subdivision and depredations.
The long quote from Karaganov near the end of the article is important. He isn’t just hyperventilating. I recently read an essay by the esteemed journalist and politician Barbara Spinelli. An almost-shocking point that she made is that the center of gravity in Europe has shifted to the attack dogs surrounding the Baltic Sea (add in Sweden and Finland, now in thorough panics) and especially Poland. This means that the bellicosity of these mini-nations is on full display (think Kaja Kallas). What they want more than anything is to inflict a humiliating defeat on the Russians in compensation for the years of the Soviet Union.
Strategically, as Karaganov makes more than clear, this defeat is not in the offing.
Yet the distortion of the purpose of the EU is now causing countries like Germany and France to go into political crises. Someone in Brussels may have thought — Oh, let’s take in Poland and get a bunch of low-cost workers!
Hell, with the EU’s own-goal of Poland one also got bloody historical grievances wrapped in religious rigidity in a marinade of endless nationalism.
I mention Barbara Spinelli because her father was Altiero Spinelli who wrote the famous Manifesto di Ventotene while interred on the Island of Ventotene (with Sandro Pertini, among many other remarkable people). It called for the unification and pacification of Europe.
This sort of testimony still underlies Italian expectations for the EU, in spite of deterioration.
https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manifesto_di_Ventotene
It disturbs me that Sahra Wagenknecht and her party are hovering at the threshold of admission to Parliament. Our German commenters will help us to understand why.
That’s a point I’ve made several times and it’s perfectly valid, but it doesn’t entirely explain the situation in the EU. As Connor mentions, the volte face of AfD and Meloni somewhat fits with the shifted center of gravity and points to something else I’ve harped on: the US went and cultivated a subservient and faithful misleadership class in Western Europe after it failed to get Western European support for the Iraq War. We all remember the rant about Old Europe (West) vs. New Europe (East). It created much the same class in Eastern Europe after 1989, which in most cases was as simple as the children and grandchildren of Communist nomenclatura going to sleep as commies and waking up as died-in-the-wool democrats and capitalists, with fierce Russophobia thrown in to seal the deal.
So, my friend, we in Europe are facing a perfect storm of belligerent and unabashedly neo-imperial Washington under Trump, and it’s lackeys in the EU sliding ever more into the role of compradores. We see supposedly anti-systemic parties springing up from the discontent of the European population and being quickly captured and tamed in service of whatever awaits us. Hate to say it, but we are about to live in a very interesting time here in Europe. Unless we as citizens manage to create a pan-European movement ro work in concert to take our governments and the EU back, we are fvcked.
Well, in that case, you are very likely “fvcked.” After all, who is going to organize such a movement? Not the working classes, or whatever you want to call majorities who are most disadvantaged by the situation. The Western liberal oligarchies have all been very successful in dampening, even eliminating, possibilities of organized resistance from below. Politics is invariably a contest between owners and managers. And we all have a “PMC” which is effectively a nomenklatura, even if our countries don’t have a communist history.
In this situation, who is going to organize, perhaps lead, this “pan-European movement”? Disaffected intellectuals who manage to shake off the professional-class habit of moralizing and lecturing to those below? Organic leaders of the working class who exist in reality rather than the myths and hopes of dead left ideologies? Members of old-fashioned leftist political parties whose wildest hopes for an election is to get more than 1% of the vote?
I have no difficulty observing plenty of disgruntlement or hints of populist revolts against elites. But one of the themes of the article above (and many more) is that such discontent has been fairly easy to channel into the competition between rival elite factions. It’s one of the ways liberal oligarchies maintain stability, I suppose.
All of the obstacles you mention work, until they don’t. Particularly in Europe. In a way what you write has a Fukuyamian “End of History” ring to it and I have no doubt that oligarchs on both sides of the Atlantic and their political servants wish it to be true, or to convince us that it’s true and all resistance is futile, but it isn’t. The only question is whether it will take a generation or several generations to get rid of it.
I hope you’re right.
In that amorphous social environment, I suspect that the European population with immigration background (North and Subsaharian Africa, Near East, Indian subcontinent) may be the one that will spark the troubles.
1) It is European (third generation already), but still socially, economically, and politically excluded.
2) It repeatedly made its discontent clear, in a violent if disorganized way — see the recurring riots in the French “banlieues” and in the UK. At best, this led to desultory policies by various government to improve their lot.
3) The enrollment in organizations such as Al Qaeda means that many have a yearning for an ideological framework and for combat. The enrollment in criminal gangs means that others have training with weapons in organized groups.
Revolutionaries are not necessarily all well-educated, philosophically altruist individuals with a clean conscience and pure intents as to the betterment of mankind.
In essence, I view the aforementioned population as the “internal proletariat” in Toynbee’s sense that will drive change in the sclerotic Europe.
Immigrants.
OIFVet: Always good to hear from you. I have a feeling that we should keep this concept of “distorted center of Europe” in the discussion at Naked Capitalism. Italy, as a founder of the forerunners to the EU and a large industrial / agricultural country, isn’t getting any benefits from the turn of events after 2001 and the so-called Global War on Terror. Nor is Bulgaria, which is a small country in a not-so-horrible geographic location. Heck, at least you aren’t living in North Macedonia.
As to Europe-wide movements to take back sovereignty and to “de-risk” our countries from the European Commission and the weird axis of Ursula / Roberta Metsola / Kaja Kallas, the irony is that each country has to act up individually. The Commission will do its best to punish individual countries.
Yannis Varoufakis may be the person with the best analysis and ideas, but I have to admit that I don’t see his DIeM movement getting a majority in the EuroParliament.
In the meantime, we will eat well. Have some revane.
Hah, made an awesome Basque cheesecake yesterday 😉
Varoufakis has many right ideas. What he doesn’t have is ground game. Like Vao above points out, it ain’t necessarily the well-educated that originate those movements, charismatic, thinking and determined everyday people have been known to drive change based on broad popular support. But first there’s need to formulate what it is that we need to demand and fight for, a vision for Europe’s future. Without that it’s just a mob letting off steam and as such it’s easy to wait it out to go home when it shouts out its frustrations. IOW, lots of prep work and dialogue. But it has to be Pan-EU, otherwise it won’t work.
Dear Messers. Czar & Vet:
I’m neither as broadly informed nor as eloquent as either of you, but Sahra Wagenknecht’s BSW seems to me the only at least nationally-visible movement with both the vision and ground game abilities needed to change the EU. The only things they lack are money and non-hostile media exposure. Sadly, those may be incurable and fatal defects. Do you see any other alternative?
Col Wilkerson confirmed that the US invested tens of billions after 2003 to bring on board European elites to follow US agenda, whatever that might be.
As for the general question why: “One can only wonder why Musk and Vice President JD Vance spoke out in favor of the upstart AfD and not Wagenknecht.” the answer is very simple: Liberalism is the good cop of capitalism while fascism is the bad cop of capitalism. Theone who pays the piper choses the tune. And the music says that hoi polloi are royaly fucked.
Germans exhibit unusual ideological tenacity and are willing to inflict significant self-harm once a set of beliefs is adopted. The Nazi era is not the only evidence. East Germany struggled mightily to make Marxism work, and the current masochistic Atlanticism further confirms this peculiar absence of pragmatism. A country that accepts the deep humiliation of having its vital gas pipelines destroyed by an “ally” while living under de facto military occupation will certainly endure further economic hardship.
George Washington was right!
USA, get out of Europe.
Eugypius is not pertinent on a matter of topics. I read him since long and he clearly lacks knowledge, just that: knowledge, of contexts around Germany in Europe (to start with France). He is often re-inventing the wheel on topics where he thinks Germany is pioneering something while in fact it has been done long ago West of the Rhein. The case about immigration laws for instance. The fact that Merz has proposed an immigration control law the other day, with AfD willing to vote it, is read by him as an historical fall of cordon sanitaire.
It is not. Such fall would be an alliance CDU-AfD.
What Merz is doing is what Sarkozy with Chirac was doing in France with FN in 2003, then Sarkozy again in 2007, and that Macron did again in 2017 and then again recently.
It is a try to buy the opponent’s votes without entering into a deal and giving access to the state devices and government´s bodies. A try to suck the votes and devitalize opposition (AfD in this case).
Eugypius has a tendency to write about Germany as “us Europe”. As an European I don’t take a German trying to lecture me what I am and what I am supposed to do..
But the bottom flaw of Eugypius is his naive atlanticism: he writes specifically to an Anglo-Saxon ie. mostly American readership, that has no clues about Germany and Europe. Americans don’t know shit, will not read local media in source languages.
By doing so in fact Eugypius use English with the pre-build embedded prejudices it carries. For instance the left/right category, or just the “West” term. Etc.
Eugypius doesn’t acknowledge that the cordon sanitaire is not a matter of left/right, but of anti-EU anti-NATO AfD posture. If like FN/RN in France AfD turns atlanticist, then cordon sanitaire will gradually disappear.
Good article. I have three (complementary) comments:
1) Besides the “melonization” of the AfD, it is also important to notice the irresistible “pasokification” of the SPD. Just like their social-democrat colleagues in Greece, France, Finland, the Netherlands, Sweden, Ireland, etc, the German SPD is learning that the turn towards neo-liberalism (by Schröder), the unholy alliance with the right (under Merkel governments), and disastrous “transatlantic” policies (of Scholz) imply a hefty price to pay in terms of political relevance in the medium to long-term.
2) It is common to consider that the formal and informal (blowing up Nordstream) sanctions against Russia mark the beginning of an ineluctable decay of the German industry. I disagree: the German economic model was already undermined by fundamental problems, and showing signs of exhaustion well before the war in Ukraine, and even well before the covid pandemic. The graphs show that the “ZEW assessment of the economic situation”, as well as industrial production and capacity utilization had peaked in 2018 and were on a steep downwards curve from then on. While the chart on household consumption per capita exhibits a steady growth, the one on real wage growth shows that wage increases were stagnating around 2018. Apart from the trade war (initiated by Donald Trump when he imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium from the EU), I have no recollection of a major economic turmoil in 2018. The answer is probably to look for in the important markets (EU and China) no longer absorbing quite the same amount of German exports.
3) The Greens, in their journey to overtake the FDP as the neoliberal party of choice for the PMC, are now flirting with the CDU to become partners:
“Perhaps the CDU will learn that the Greens are not their main adversaries, but that we have completely other enemies who, at present, want to destroy not only the rule of law, but also a constructive spirit in our country.”
In accordance with this, Habeck, as minister for economic affairs, has launched a study on the latest idea formulated by Merz and supported by large German corporations: setting up “spaces for experimentation”. In practice this means letting firms overrule some aspects of the German labour law — overtime, working hours, etc — supposedly in order to support the digitization of work and remove barriers to innovative ways of working.
If the Greens manage to pass the 5% hurdle, they will most probably seek an alliance with the CDU/CSU. What the Greens will do if the AfD appears to be just inevitable in a CDU-led coalition is an interesting question.
With all respect to Conor’s fine analysis, you win word of the day, vao. Pasokification. Wikipedia has a long page listing examples so I guess it must be well known. Perhaps State and CIA are proud to have a word with currency for it. Anyway, it’s new to me and useful.
Chantal Mouffe has written extensively on the neoliberal shifts involved in “pasokification”.
It is a central issue. As it will be in the French elections too.
Neoliberalism, after 1975, involved a shift from full employment to inflation as the main metric for monetary policy in macroeconomic policy, as well as a smaller state.
Central banks and finance ministers have shared a willingness to chase artificial targets such as 2% for inflation, by deliberately creating higher unemployment and then raising work and cost of living uncertainties, mostly to protect capital. NAIRU rules.
The left have alienated both working and progressively, the middle classes, as they now offer no redemption from daily financial pressures in terms of costs of living, housing and other quality of life indices – just more austerity and flatlining real wages.
Old industrial areas like the Rust Belt, Northern England and now areas like Ludwigshafen, have simply been ignored and marginalised by the left and centre left in their respective countries.
The void left by that neoliberal consensus has been willingly filled by populists, mostly of the right, using dog whistle issues like immigration and then cost of living issues and rising poverty to gain traction.
No wonder that vulnerable workers, especially in older declining industrial areas, have looked for someone to blame, and then to someone who promises simple solutions to complex problems.
What has happened in the UK, with a Labour government that is very much centre right, and devoid of the usual social commitments, is the rise of anti-immigrant UKIP, and now Reform, which pretty much parallels the rise of the AfD.
The feebleness of the SPD leadership is entirely comparable to the weakness of Starmer’s premiership, and Germany’s observance of corporate liberal policies has moreorless ignored the lower 30-40% of the population economically, just as Clinton did in the USA in the 90s, also creating immense uncertainty over the eastward boundary of NATO, and hence American hegemony.
There are vague echoes with 1930, after the impact of the Wall St crash led to 6m unemployed in Germany. That the Germans then sought refuge in the NSDAP, was unsurprising.
Thankfully in 2025 there is no article 48.
Meanwhile neoliberal pressures, such as Freeports and now Free cities, will only further demean and diminish the quality of life of workers unprotected from corporatism.
Thanks for the Habeck paper. That is new, is it? (31st).
I wonder if Nachdenkseiten will mention it.
I drop ´em an emial.
I too wanted to remind of the limited Nordstream significance albeit cannot recall how much percent Nordstream 1 made up of German energy.
June 2022 The Guardian stated: “Natural gas makes up about 27% of Germany’s overall energy mix. Before the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, just over half (55%) of gas consumed in Germany was imported from Russia.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/21/how-reliant-is-germany-and-europe-russian-gas-nord-stream
quoting German office for environment:
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/daten/energie/primaerenergieverbrauch#primarenergieverbrauch-nach-energietragern
However:
“This last quarter, however, is required in areas where Germany is particularly vulnerable: to heat private homes and to power the industry of the EU’s largest economy. In both of those areas, gas is the single largest source of energy, at about 37% of the overall mix.”
I don´t have the time to check NC´s archive which most likely has the answer.
p.s. Throughout 2021/2022 until NS sabotage Habeck fought his own ministry and to make them stop NS2.
Eventually he abused the internal secret intelligence service to neuter those 2 senior employees who were responsible for NS2. This was preceded by a litany of German activists and US opposing NS2. beginning under Trump as far as I know. When Scholz was minister of Merkel and tried to counter without any effect.
By spring 2021 Merkel and Biden agreed to shut down NS2 in case Russia would attack Ukraine. Untill then he granted her a “free pass” on NS2. So if someone did sell out it was Mama Merkel.
And Anthony Blinken´s only known academic paper was about USSR cooperation with Germany/Western EU in building pipelines I believe. He knows from the records very well that US has been on this for decades following it closely.
I haven´t found the time to reading it. And neither has this been seriously looked into by German MSM.
So NS2 was more about “shaping” the future and controlling leeway. It was not that significant for the present.
NS1 might be another matter. But In how far so? As per numbers.
This is a great analysis however there are deeper issues. So, just want to add that one of the great underlying problems in Europe is they seem to lack the vigorous alt-media that exists in the USA largely due to the First Amendment and a love of liberty in a substantial number of people; the second problem. is they do not have a Second Amendment, i.e., an armed patriotic public as exists in the USA. It is possible to have real change in Washington, as is the case, now with Trump and his band. This change may be good or bad, depending on your POV but it is change. I see no sign of major cultural change in Europe that would signal a major political change. Their media is run by virtual or actual CIA types who push the Neocon USA agenda as is the case in the US mainstream which seems to be subtly changing their focus as they are really feeling the winds of change coming from the alt-media. One of the proofs in the Rubio interview by Megan Kelly–he went to her and not the NYT/WaPo/CNN and other cable and network “news” shows who have been as rigidly controlled by the newest version of Operation Mockingbird. All this can change in the USA but cannot change in Germany. I always thought that the conflict between the Empire and Russia depended on the support or opposition of Germany but German culture is still based on “following-orders” and a lack of interest in what we Americans would call liberty–the rest of Europe is not that different from Germany, i.e., culturally weak and degenerate from a historical POV.
Where should I start? Maybe I shouldn’t even start.
There is plenty of alt-media in Europe. On YuTbe, you can watch Fanpage, Ottolina, Pubble (she’s a stitch), and others in Italian. There are magazines and newspapers in Italy of long standing that are famously dissident: Try reading manifesto.
Not all alt-media are in English, eh?
As to the armed liberty-loving populace armed with blunderbusses: Come on. When was the last uprising in the US of A? Oh, Black Lives Matter. Oh.
Trying reading about the partisans in places like France and Italy. Try reading about the many general strikes in France. Try reading about the Basque and Catalan resistance to the Francoist fascist state and subsequent events. Try reading about Tito and the Yugoslav resistance. Then there is the Greek resistance, the Greek civil war, and the resistance to the Colonels. No one needed the oh-so-sacred second amendment.
Before going on about “liberty.”
Maybe for you ungovernable Italians. But in Germany they are locking people up for mentioning Gaza in social media. Same in the UK
I suggest that you read ‘Europeana’ by Czech writer Patrik Ourednik. Link below
https://english.radio.cz/czech-books-you-must-read-8506310/10
It is the American view that is consistently myopic – in my opinion your comment above reflects that.
The ‘broad brush’ is better found in the rest of the world, including contemporary Europe.
Thanks for the recommendation, it looks very interesting and I’m looking forward to reading it soon. -regards, a.v.
‘It proclaims that the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was responsible for World War II, and consequently that Soviet Russia is as guilty of the war as Nazi Germany.’
I would have thought when the UK and France sold Czechoslovakia out and threw them under the bus to the Nazis. They had 50 divisions ready to fight behind a mountain chain but were abandoned to their fate. I hate how history is being rewritten. Communists being the same as Nazis? Seriously/ Before the war the Russians called the Nazis by the more accurate word fascists and loathed them with a vengeance. But to see Europe redeem them and encourage their comeback leads me to think that Russia will write Europe off for at least a generation. And they were outraged when UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres talked about the freeing the inmates of Auschwitz without mentioning who did the actual freeing. Give another decade and the EU will be saying that camps like Auschwitz were actually being run by the USSR.
Right. Plus Stalin tried to get a mutual defense treaty against Germany (I recall Spain was the last country he tried before he gave up). No one wanted to ally with a Communist country, even to stop the Nazis. He entered into the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact only to buy time to arm. But of course Germany made better use of that time and broke the deal.
I think “buying time to arm” is what Neville Chamberlain also sought to do, knowing England was ill-prepared for a war with Germany, and knowing it would likely destroy his political career and reputation.
It appears to be difficult to find out in detail what Munich was all about for real. Right after the events it was well known who was regarded the real enemy (USSR) by the Brits. And even right after 1945. The rewriting of Munich as a naive “Appeasement of evil Mr. H.” started then. But I do not know the minutes of that history of the new narrative.
I am not sure if Britian was that unsure of herself back in the day to really worry over Germany.
They knew the French army was huge.
Also the Germans e.g. apparently had unusual difficulties (huge considering the size of the opponent) with logistics during their Sudetenland – Czech campaign.
Hitler had not supported building railways instead pushing his PR on Autobahn/highways project. However latter was not suitable for the army. Which was quietly criticized by Wehrmacht.
German Wehrmacht had internal criticism and noted this being a problem in 1938 against the Czech. Against France it was overplayed due to the even greater inconsistencies of French strategy/tactics and lack of logistics. The French/British Army as such was most likely superior to the German forces. So 1940 was a big fuck up. Also due to lack of bottom-top communication.
The lack of German railway issue did become the death sentence for Operation Barbarossa eventually however.
It would be interesting to know how internal British and other analysts viewed German capabilities around 1939.
After all the German Scandinavia operation “Weserübung” too was in part successful only thanks to the weather which kept British forces from landing preemptively. Imagine German Wehrmacht landing with British troops expecting them. Different battle altogether.
German losses in France 1940 were already considerable considering the status of the Battle of France today. Long story short: Germans were very lucky too. And the British were superior in certain areas. Or at least believed to be. (I have to work through Correlli Barnett first, however).Too many contradictory studies I have read in recent years on this British vs. German forces.
But Churchill might indeed been the only major figure to regard Germany as the more imminent threat. But as such he was not important a man then. Rather considered a military failure if I recall correctly. Or as the movie “Darkest Hour” quotes him – they only chose him as PM because they had no one else.
Churchill was surely aware he “owed” Hitler. Without Hitler no Churchill legend.
I recommend “Failure of a mission” by Neville Hendersson, the UK ambassador to Nazi Germany. Originally printed in 1940 it is of course a way of excusing the mistakes done, but it also contains an interesting explanation for British policy.
In brief, according to Hendersson, the UK foreign service believed that:
* The conditions of the Versailles peace created the rise of the Nazis
* Germany should have gotten majority German areas in Versailles to make it more stable and less irredentist
* The Nazi party had both a peace wing and a war wing, the peace wing wanted to rule Germany, the war wing wanted war. Göring was identified as an important leader in the peace wing.
* By letting Germany gain majority German areas by peaceful means, the peace wing would be strengthened and general war avoided.
* Since the German race wasn’t suited for democracy, some form of strong man leader would always rule there.
The first point is mainstream, the second and third plausible, then the analysis goes of the rails. And the last point, well it wouldn’t be a 1930ies analysis without race theory. Hendersson notes after the invasion of the rest of Czechoslovakia that their mistake was not understanding that Hitler was the leader of the war wing. And he appeared to understand what the Brittish were doing, because he got really angry when they messed with his plans. Hitler wanted to invade Czechoslovakia, and he wanted a war.
Once Hitler invades Czechoslovakia despite getting the German speaking parts in Munich, the UK foreign service realises that he is the head of the war wing, and therefore war is unavoidable.
Hendersson is in all probability trying to make himself and the foreign service look less bad, but it is a far cry from standard post war narrative. And it is messy enough to be very plausible.
Thanks.
The Göring point is intruiging since in not a single study have I read such an idea.
See a 2-part text by Reinhard Opitz from:
“Reinhard Opitz: Liberalism – Fascism – Integration. Edition in three volumes, Volume III: The “Röhm Affair”, BdWi-Verlag, Marburg 1999”
2 excerpts on the 1934 events with Röhm vs. Hitler printed last year in Junge Welt daily:
machine-translations:
part 1
Shortened transverse front
In the spring of 1934, the Hitler-Papen cabinet was in crisis. Circles around Kurt von Schleicher were forging plans to reshuffle the government. The narrow history of June 30, 1934 (Part 1)
By Reinhard Opitz
https://archive.is/LyS53
part 2
Before the Night of the Long Knives
SA rearms, Reichswehr on alert, murder plans take shape. The narrower history of June 30, 1934 (Part 2 and conclusion)
By Reinhard Opitz
https://archive.is/8OapF
part 1 e.g.:
“Of course, the balance of power in the capital as a whole did not allow the Schacht-Thyssen wing of heavy industry to seize the power of the dictatorship entirely on its own. Rather, in order to move away from the one-sided heavy industry orientation of the cabinet and to constructively integrate the forces of the chemical and electrical industries that were pushing for cooperation in the fascist state, a man close to them and an opponent of the United Steelworks, Kurt Schmitt of the Allianz Group, was appointed as the new Reich Minister of Economics.
The ousting of the two former partner factions from the dictatorship alliance of January 30th by the Thyssen-Göring wing had of course brought about a rapprochement between them. When in the spring of 1934 the policy of the Schacht wing was heading towards an obvious dilemma and concern about this was growing in wide circles of industry, this process of rapprochement between the factions that had been ousted from influence also led to a rapprochement with the still existing old circles around Schleicher and Heinrich Brüning with the common intention of bringing about a change in the composition of the Hitler government that would exclude their common enemy, the Schacht-Thyssen wing.”
Of course I´ll have to check out that Henderson item.
I Think NC showcased this Canadian academic with his most recent and well documented take on the 1930s and the sisiphean struggle the sovets fought for legitimacy and cohabitation and alliance against fascism:
Michael Jabara Carley – Stalin’s Gamble_ The Search for Allies against Hitler, 1930–1936
Michael Jabara Carley – Stalin’s Failed Alliance_ The Struggle for Collective Security, 1936-1939
Thanks for these book tips. -cheers, a.v.
As an entrée, these 3 items by/with MJC:
https://www.thepostil.com/author/michael-jabara-carley/
I believe his complete study on pre-1941 diplomacy/failure is not yet finished…
Quick info on “”In Our Time: The Chamberlain-Hitler Collusion”
https://monthlyreview.org/product/in_our_time/
p.s. there is a minor mistake in that book (the one I found so far), picturing Hitler´s translator as a potential Anti-Nazi which he never was.
I tried to reach one of the two authors who is still alive, via fb, because of this, but I never got an answer. If it was the author in fact…
Since this book is pretty important, regarding the “vastness” of literature on this subejct (I am being sarcastic of course).
Some comments I’ve seen elsewhere claim that the folks in the Russian govt. understand that Europe was colonized by the US after WW2 and aren’t (entirely) acting on their own.
Vassal-state leadership is put in place by the colonizer, and they do what the colonizer wants. In return they and their inner circle of politicians get a cut of the loot. The ones suffering are the state and the commoners.
It’s claimed that he who wins wars writes the history. The US, who supposedly won the Cold War, has omitted the Soviets’ role in defeating Nazi Germany, so it’s to be expected that anyone schooled in the system of a country owned by the US and consuming CIA-owned mainstream media within the past 80 years will fall victim to this deception.
“Leader of Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland party (AfD) Alice Weidel told a party conference this week that “We will put Nord Stream back into operation, you can count on it!’ as the right have (correctly) identified the end of cheap Russian as being a major cause of the collapse of the German economy.” – according to an article in links today.
But here’s the rub…the “deindustrialization” (there has never been “de-industrialization” – everything around you is manufactured somewhere) is also an attack on the unions. Move the industry and hurt the unions. It’s also been discussed how the war is also a good way to set up the privatization of the commons by cutting social spending to increase military spending.
At any rate, solving the energy problem is not going to solve the “hate the workers” problem – anywhere in the world.
> “At any rate, solving the energy problem is not going to solve the “hate the workers” problem – anywhere in the world.”
That´s an important point to put it mildly.
Given the hysteresis we saw from the GFC, even if energy and raw material prices and volumes to Germany reverted overnight to 2020 levels, much of the industry is not coming back for a generation, if at all. Closed factories can’t reopen if their best employees are already gone, the next generation they would have trained will not be adequate, and markets have moved on. No, Germany already lost WW3, without even knowing who their enemy was.
Likely the fate of Western Europe and Germany was already sealed as the nexus of world power moved to the troika of Russia, China, and India. For Western Europe/Germany the choice is to join this troika as a group of smaller countries. It is hard to see how the EU/NATO, as a group, could make such a choice. IMO, there is only one real choice but I don’t think the Western Europeans can make it.
Odd that some countries in the old Warsaw pact seem to be shifting, i.e., Slovakia, Hungary, Romania (?), and if Trump’s freeze on AID funding of “NGOs” continues, it might unsettle even more EE nations. If the “magnetic” power of the German economy decreases, this might provide even more space for shifting in Eastern Europe towards Russia and China.
Interesting times indeed.
If 41% of Germans surveyed believe immigration to be a concern, this doesn’t necessarily mean they believe immigration caused the current economic situation. Massive immigration is likely to make the difficult economic situation worse, reduce options for recovery, even if you’re generally supportive of immigration.
So what percentage of Germans believe immigration is the *cause* of economic woes. Does anyone know?
Meanwhile, I cant help but compare with post-Treaty of Versailles conditions:
– Massive economic reparations extracted by other countries. Check. This time by the US, EU and potentially NATO.
– Widespread economic suffering and hardship and deteriorating. Check.
– Conditions for hyperinflation spiral. Check.
– National pride demolished. Check.
– Opportunity for economic prosperity stolen (or rather, intentionally destroyed, via Nordstream). Big check.
– Failure of political system (similar to failure of Weimar republic). Big check.
– We’re missing a Wall Street crash, but that’s in the works with Trump’s tariffs. So I guess mark it as work in progress?
And this time in lieu of the Jews, the nationalisms are trying to blame the immigrants, using the trusty hate playbook but, unlike 1930’s Germany, the sense I’m getting (and I could be wrong) is that even with captured and compromised media Germans know it’s not immigration which caused this?
And it’s not even Russia because Russia was a (if not the) source of economic prosperity.
If I’m not wrong and the average German can trace the economic woes to the destruction of Nordstream (and thus the US), then conditions seem ripe for a seriously impressive backfire?
If anyone still wonders how Germany could end up here – (re: Karl Sanchez´s energy paper mentioned in today´s links, recommended – as in “incapable to plan) – look into the news today – well over 100k demonstrating in Germany against the CDU. (It´s odd – wasn´t the last major anti-Nazi protest 1 year ago?)
When did you every see such images over WWIII, over 1 mn killed in Ukraine, over the destruction of the countries free speech, culture (!) or, ahem, genocide.
Those who are apt to organize and righteous enough are demonstrating. The others are not.
And that is your post 1989 political class.
In the 1950s,60s,70s,80s Germans protested because they knew. Today they feel.
That´s the flavourisation of politics.
Good night.
German neo- romanticism revival…? The last romanticism period didn’t end well…
Nice point to actually articulate the idea of “romanticism” and its brother neo. Both of which were very different however. The genuine and the “revived” version. May be someone could draft an essay on this “The Third Spring” 🤔
(“Third” is initially a coincidence due to counting the historic occasions, but of course invites for something else.)
>”For a long time it looked like the Alternative for Germany party was the one to do so.”
This is incorrect.
AfD domestically never war regarded as a true bearer of power. Which after all you are only if the elites in politics, economy, media, academia regard you as such. None of those ever endorsed AfD in any way.
And besides – AfD is flesh of CDU and thus it actually doesn´t matter what AfD wants.
And the AfD phenomenon was almost entirely built on the very shaky ground of East German local polling success. That AfD now appears so influential is not due to its own making.
But even with that structurally Germany is no AfD place as majority voting goes.
AfD is a means to an end. Question is how far will CDU let them feel that or not. And when will AfD base abandon them when they realize that the will be fucked over by the party.
On the other hand – the existence of BSW and AfD demanding a different position towards Ukraine forced Scholz do various things he might have not done otherwise. In fact as SPD base is concerned BSW was certainly decisive for internal discussions. Imagine the huge SPD local structures. Those to this day have a high regard for Lafontain and for those files and ranks who 20 years ago broke out of the SPD. This is not talked about. But it´s still there. The old SPD so to speak. Broken into left SPD, The Left and BSW.
So if BSW moves that reverberates with SPD. Even if media do not show it.
Remember, what we are shown is only what we are supposed to see and what reporters understand.
There is a an entire history of domestic politics in Germany you will find almost nowhere reported. May be by some local reporters. And in some academic study in sociology nobody will see. But that´s where stuff happens. And where party leadership has to bow eventually. Or not, as Schröder did – with the help of Scholz – with his Agenda 2010 destroying the party in the long run.
>”Essentially this means that regardless of the makeup of the next government — whether an AfD-CDU coalition or a grand variety of the CDU-SPD-Greens — the standard of living for the majority of Germans will continue declining.
And that’s probably a best-case scenario.”
This is of course hitting the nail. But as sound as it is I am a bit confused over quoting Karaganov´s apocalyptic redderick following that.
K. is no official political employee as far as I know. He is an academic and political scientist. He is pushing himself into the media sphere being regarded as a representative of RU officialdom which he is not. And neither does he have serious professional knowledge in WMDs which he however so often likes to talk about in grim colours. Compared to many others in the apparatus it is noteworthy that the West hears almost only by him and of Karaganov. There is a reason for that. He is handy for both sides may be as a diversion, as entertainment? As a clown? But therefore most likely of very limited substantial value. IMHO.
p.s. This is a German text on polling institutes in Germany (think the Nate Silver issue).
The authors are analyzing their quality:
“Are election polls neutral?”
January 30, 2025 Walter Mohr and Frank Püschel
https://overton-magazin.de/hintergrund/politik/sind-wahlumfragen-neutral/
English:
https://archive.is/XrGcW
Interesting how they characterize which polling institute is over/understating particular parties and their affiliations to major political actors.
They are suggesting that the FGW-institute has been most accurate in recent times. FGW is close to German state TV ZDF and the director of FGW was an advisor to Merkel. FGW however is undervalueing BSW e.g.
See the latest report on polls by FGW
https://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Aktuelles/Politbarometer/
English
https://archive.is/cVl6C
p.p.s. my rather amateurish take, weather on voting day will be important for BSW. If its good many of the abandoned will go. If its bad they wont. Same goes for the brittle AfD voters who are more filled with despair and hate than their comrades from BSW voter base.
re: role of NATO
4-part series about NATO and its role from antiwar.com written by David Stockman.
I haven´t had time to check I just discovered it.
part 1
Fiscal Redemption Requires a Republic, Not an Empire
by David Stockman Posted on January 15, 2025
https://original.antiwar.com/david_stockman/2025/01/14/fiscal-redemption-requires-a-republic-not-an-empire/
part 2
The Entire Cold War Was an Avoidable Mistake
by David Stockman Posted on January 23, 2025
https://original.antiwar.com/david_stockman/2025/01/22/the-entire-cold-war-was-an-avoidable-mistake/
part 3
NATO Was Never About American Security
by David Stockman Posted on January 27, 2025
https://original.antiwar.com/david_stockman/2025/01/26/nato-was-never-about-american-security/t 4
part 4
NATO: The Case To Get Out Now
by David Stockman Posted on January 30, 2025
https://original.antiwar.com/david_stockman/2025/01/29/nato-the-case-to-get-out-now/
>”One can only wonder why Musk and Vice President JD Vance spoke out in favor of the upstart AfD and not Wagenknecht.”
Absolutely!
re: Germany and BSW
One last point: I would still claim that one of the major roles of AfD has been scaring away voters from BSW. And doing so by providing the opportunity to stage large scale protests against Nazis and the AfD as was the case one year ago and as is the case now.
Both of which instances were tied to elections. Post elections last year, pre-election now.
If the polls are correct and realistic – which I tend to doubt in such dramatic fashion (see US polls last year) – then BSW´s losses since early 2024 were one if not the major contribution of AfD as a strawman via being pictured as a potential BSW ally which BSW never was and constantly denied.
If BSW will be much weaker in the parliament than true numbers would suggest than due to this media onslaught.
In fact if CORRECTIV did achieve anything with last years ridculous stageing of Wannsee-Konferenz 2.0 allegations then it was the ultimate weakening not of AfD but BSW. Which – CORRECTIV and its state agents were fully aware of. And which was the true intention behind this embarrassing play.
(And I know soooo many people who fell for it and still do. Which now is good for: “Vote for SPD to prevent AfD” slogans.)
But: in the FRG this is impossible to say whilst every voter of AfD or BSW and many from SPD and disgruntled CDU know this. But what can they do about any of this?
The sooner the planet breaks the collar of the Boomer Truth Regime — centered on the moral mythology created around Munich, Churchill and Auschwtiz — the better it will be.
Usually polls in Germany are in good agreement with actual outcomes, but what if this time (as happened everywhere), they failed by a far large figures? I mean, AfD clearly wins, Linke (through direct mandates) and BSW (surpassing 5%) enter the Bundestag, and AfD+Linke+BSW have the majority, I mean, no viable technicolor goverment (CSU+SPD+Greens+FPD), not even AfD+CDU since AfD would name the chancellor, which would be the beginning of the end for CSU (and Merkel suspects this, reading her last declarations).
Maybe after all there is some hope. Against all odds, of course. We will.see.
I wouldn´t be surprised if all parties were closer to each other than now predicted. Followed by some difficult government coalition process. Since party base of SPD knows the perils of a coalition with CDU. This is an election about the SPD´s future in essence.
I doubt though AfD that strong. They are a minority party. Paradoxically SPD needs a strong AfD for scapegoating and fearmongering her voters into voting.
The fourth graph, on household consumption may help show the decline in a modern growth economy but is it not also an example of what radical conservation should look like — what Yves has been repeatedly saying is necessary to survive climate chaos? In this case, of course, it’s a trend imposed by climate chaos itself, not a thoughtful response to a problem. If there were still a honest Green Party in Germany, they would be working to spread the effects of the degrowth more equitably, and they would certainly not be gibbering along with the rentier PMCs over the demise of the growth Ponzi economy.
I know Yves wrote that. But which post by Yves in particular would you highlight if you had to choose?
p.s. and I guess particularly corresponding with that might Connor´s series of texts past autumn on the EU´s future plans which all amount to a Hollywood disaster movie.
edit: Conor not Connor, my apologies
In my view, the likelihood of a CDU-AfD coalition is overrated in the article, or rather the consequences such a move would have for the CDU are not taken into account. The party would probably collapse as a result. Friedrich Merz, with his national conservatism, is on the right fringe of the CDU/CSU and even before the recent vote was facing stiff opposition from the more liberal camp, which is led by the state associations of North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig Holstein. I can’t imagine Merz taking the risk.
To believe, as some commentators do, that the Greens would be prepared to co-operate with the AFD is absurd. Although the party’s base has already gone through the most daring twists and turns, such as the betrayal of the anti-war position, its self-image is resolutely anti-fascist.
In ideological and socio-psychological terms, the article probably underestimates the feelings of shame and guilt that still prevail in Germany as a result of Nazi crimes, with which the AFD is associated. In my opinion, the AFD will become capable of governing in the medium term. In the short term, cooperation would tear the CDU apart ideologically.
“German guilt” is weird to me. It seems to work this way: We did utterly an utterly abhorrent thing to Y (among others). Y is doing an utterly abhorrent thing to Z (for it is what the same kind of thing as we did), so we enthusiastically support Y doing it.
Is it even worth thinking this makes any kind of sense? Seems to me whatever is going on is not explicable in these terms.
It’s weird even for me as a German. What helps me a lot is my professional, psychoanalytical knowledge about unconscious thinking. It works not logically, but rather loosely, associatively and is usually directed towards avoiding unpleasant or unbearable feelings. For example considering the Palestinians as the worst anti-Semites and supporting Jews in whatever they do can serve as a relief from shame and guilt because of the own anti-Semitism and identification with one’s ancestors. Sounds weird, doesn’t it?
Nowhere near as weird as supporting Slavic-Nazis in their fight against regular-Slavs, and claiming that Putin is new Hitler. With Palestinians there is a degree of separation (and the anti-Islamic sentiment related to the migrants). Here there is none. Putin’s brother died in WWII, and parents barely survived. The icing on the weird cake is that the latest Auschwitz liberation ceremony included only those that made it happen. Psychoanalyze that.
Please don’t kill the messenger! I’m not defending any Nazi supporter here or elsewhere.
Well, you can’t really psychoanalyse a society or its trajectories. What you can (and should) do is to apply psychoanalytical besides economical, political, cultural ideas in your analysis. If I look at Germany ‘s support of Ukraine, I see a deep and old undercurrent of anti-russian racism, inherited from the Nazi-grandparent generation. Unconsciously people seem to see the war as a chance for revenge for Stalingrad and Kursk. On top of it and on the conscious side there’s a hermetic sphere of public disinformation. Call it Gleichschaltung. Compared to other western countries like the USA or Italy (from what I can assess) it’s distinctly worse here, virtually no alternative media in German, even big parts of the political left disconnected from reality. Any divergence is considered as russian propaganda effort and success. That is telling the truth makes you either a victim and naive multiplier or even malign agent of the enemie’s war machine. It’s completely nonsensical telling anyone here about Ukrainian Nazis. I really tried. I’m afraid you can’t expect Germans coming to their senses any time soon.
People have said that (West) Germany’s politics and media have been controlled by the USA (CIA) since the end of WW2. The exact same USA allegedly nurtured the Nazis (‘Jim Crow’ and ‘Manifest Destiny’ come to mind), conveniently turned on Germany when it was already losing to the Soviets, and recruited many ex-Nazis in Operation Paperclip. The USA would also rewrite its war history to omit or downplay the Soviets’ tremendous role in defeating fascism. To this day, (reunited) Germany has US military bases on its soil, no peace treaty has been signed between the two countries, and the Chancellor Act is still in effect.
“Allegedly” nurtured sounds a bit funny to everyone that knows about Stepan Bandera himself living freely in Munich, and working for Radio Free Europe (that was created specifically for “fighting communism” with aforementioned public disinformation).
Operation Paperclip is the least sinister of the bunch, and one can even find some scientific justification for it (it did put a man on the moon). On the other hand, there are Ratlines, support for Banderites and Ustashe, putting former German Nazis in the positions of power, and many other lesser known things that are just pure evil (that “conveniently” flared up after Cold War ended, giving us “hot” wars in Europe). Nurtured indeed.
I expect the result will yield another bland centrist coalition that will ultimately fail to address the very real problems facing Germany — so no real change until (at least) the next election.
It’s the long twilight of the “radical centrist” neoliberalism afflicting the entire Western world — Starmer’s “Labour in Name Only” being a similar inevitable failure in action.