Coffee Break: Across the Pond – Even the Best Laid EU Plans…

The EU plans to continue the war with Russia are coming apart in a welter of debt and recriminations.

Putin Delivers an Address to People in the West

Putin told Western audiences that the problems they are experiencing is mainly down to the incompetence of the Western elites and their “Empire of Lies”. You can see the speech (with English subtitles) here.

Putin also addressed business leaders by saying that he can’t see an end to sanctions and that the previous relationship with the West is over. How does this effect the ‘sweeteners’ that the US is likely to try and tempt him with?

Russian Frozen Assets

The Belgian Prime Minister has said that seizing Russian assets would be an act of war. Consequently, the EU has decided against seizing the frozen assets giving the following reasons:

Legal restrictions: there is no way to legally seize the assets.

Financial risks: if the EU seizes these funds then it will undermine confidence in the Euro.

Existing Ukraine commitments: if they seize the assets then they’ll have nothing to underpin the loans that were previously given to Ukraine and so they’d have to repay them out of EU funds.

Leverage: the assets may be used as a ‘card’ in peace negotiations. But what happens if, as part of the peace deal, Russia gets the funds back, plus interest? Will the EU have to repay the loans they’ve already secured on them and will they have to repay the interest they’ve already taken?

Remember:

EU Commission Presents Re-Armament Plan

The EU has released its plan for preparing for war in 2030. The White Paper presents solutions to close critical capability gaps and build a strong defence industrial base. It proposes ways for Member States to massively invest in defence, procure defence systems and build up the readiness of the European defence industry over the long run. This is essential for Europe’s security.  Europe must invest in the security and defence of the continent, while continuing to support Ukraine to defend itself from Russia’s aggression. To effectively address these challenges, the White Paper outlines a number of key lines of action:

Closing capability gaps, with a focus on critical capabilities identified by Member States.

Supporting the European defense industry through aggregated demand and increased collaborative procurement.

Supporting Ukraine through increased military assistance and deeper integration of the European and Ukrainian defense industries.

Deepening the EU-wide defense market including through simplifying regulations.

Accelerating the transformation of defense through disruptive innovations such as AI and quantum technology.

Enhancing European readiness for worst-case scenarios, by improving military mobility, stockpiling and strengthening external borders, notably the land border with Russia and Belarus.

Strengthening partnership with like-minded countries around the world.

The Commission President has stated that the EU is justified in arming for conflict, presumably with Russia, under Article 122 of the EU Constitution Lisbon Treaty. The strange thing is that Article 122 does not mention armaments at all, in fact it is mainly concerned with securing energy supplies; which the Commission has singularly failed to do:

Article 122

  1. Without prejudice to any other procedures provided for in the Treaties, the Council, on a proposal from the Commission, may decide, in a spirit of solidarity between Member States, upon the measures appropriate to the economic situation, in particular if severe difficulties arise in the supply of certain products, notably in the area of energy.
  2. Where a Member State is in difficulties or is seriously threatened with severe difficulties caused by natural disasters or exceptional occurrences beyond its control, the Council, on a proposal from the Commission, may grant, under certain conditions, Union financial assistance to the Member State concerned. The President of the Council shall inform the European Parliament of the decision taken.

Why has nobody questioned the wisdom of re-arming Germany – the last couple of times that happened the whole world was engulfed in wars. And wasn’t the founding motto of NATO: Keep Russia out, keep the USA in and keep Germany down?

The EU Plan to Provide €800 Billion for Re-Arming Europe Has Hit a Snag or two

The EU plan to borrow €800 Billion for defense was rejected by the Dutch Parliament. In particular, they objected to the fact that the money will be borrowed by the EU and the more fiscally responsible countries (mainly in the northern states of the Union) would end up paying for it.

And that’s not the only problem, there is also the matter of the €300 billion that the EU borrowed to fund the recovery from COVID. The Commission wants to hand over this debt to EU members, but the northern states, who received a small percentage of the money that was handed out, are not happy to pay it. The southern states of the EU, who are regarded as being more profligate than their counterparts in the north, are pushing to have the EU take over all of their debts, so they don’t have to pay them all back, just a percentage of them, with the more fiscally conservative states picking up the rest of the bill. Countries like Germany and the Netherlands are, needless to say, not happy with this plan.

This chart shows how much extra each state will have to pay if the Commission succeeds in unloading its debt onto them.

Kaja Kallas, The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Doesn’t Know Why She’s Here

During a summit in Brussels on Thursday, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez endorsed the idea of appointing an EU Ukraine envoy, which was previously backed by Finland and Croatia.  “We need a negotiating team and a representative that speaks for European citizens,” Sanchez told reporters.

The Prime Minister’s comments “angered” Kallas, who argued that she was the right person to conduct talks with Russia and Ukraine, Euractiv reported, citing an EU diplomat.  According to Bloomberg, Kallas “took offense” to Sanchez’s position, and the two had “a heated exchange” behind closed doors. “What am I here for?” she said, according to Bloomberg’s sources. Politico Europe cited two EU diplomats as saying that Kallas insisted that representing the bloc was her job and that appointing a new person would “not be useful.”

The question remains; is she experienced enough to negotiate with Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s veteran chief diplomat?

The EU Plan to Give €40 Billion in Military Aid to Ukraine Has Been Rejected

The EU plan, put forward by Kaja Kallas, who is not having a good week, has just been vetoed by EU leaders, “it’s dead” said one top diplomat. She then put forward a second plan, this time for a “mere” €5 billion, to supply 2 million artillery shells to the Ukraine, which was also quashed. António Costa, the president of the European Council, tried to point out that member states had already pledged €15 billion in additional support for Ukraine and new commitments were expected in the coming weeks as a result of the European Commission’s rearmament package. If it happens.

The last time a European country, namely Britain, tried to supply 155mm shells sourced from overseas (Japan) it ended in failure. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that “Efforts by the UK and Japan to replenish Ukraine’s artillery stocks have fallen through”. The failure was due to the fact that there was a technical mismatch of the British and the Japanese military blueprints, and the limited production capacity of the supposed Japanese contractor, which hadn’t been checked beforehand.

In addition, there was the EU’s own plan, put forward by Kaja Kallas’s predecessor, Josep Borrel, to supply 1.4 million shells to Ukraine also foundered with them only delivering around half that number. Many of the shells they did procure, from the open market (some of them were alleged to be from arms supplied by the US), failed to work. Meanwhile, the UK’s censorship committee modified the story slightly:

The EU’s Bête Noir, Victor Orban, Has Been Sidelined in Order to Save The EU

The European elites are celebrating the fact that they managed to put through an EU Council Resolution to continue arming Ukraine despite Hungary’s objections. Viktor Orban, had previously said that the plans would “ruin Europe”, but EU officials managed to bypass him. Rules that normally require all 27 EU countries to agree on a joint statement for it to be issued on behalf of the European Council were discussed two weeks ago, when he attempted to derail proposals for Europe to fill the gap left by an American aid cutoff for Kyiv. So, the EU decided to ignore him:

The text agreed by the remaining 26 countries was appended to the other resolutions, which were unanimously agreed. And while Hungary opted out, it was still issued as a formal European Council conclusion. That tactic seems to be working and diplomats told POLITICO they intend to use it again.

“The statement on Ukraine today will be issued as an annex on behalf of the 26,” said one senior EU diplomat, granted anonymity to discuss Thursday’s closed-door talks. “This is the new normal. And it is useful when it comes to political intent. Maybe down the line though we will encounter other problems.”

Meanwhile, a top EU official added, Hungary’s objections are being priced in — and quickly ignored.

The EU is now studying ways of using Article 7 of the EU constitution Treaty of Lisbon to take away Hungary’s vote in order to “save the EU”. The article, written by two ex-EU MEPs, said:

Europe now faces the greatest challenge since its formation. The continent’s peace, prosperity and core values depend on confronting those who would destroy it from within, and if the bloc fails to act decisively, it risks remaining caught between a dysfunctional confederation and the “ever closer union” it hopes to become.

This proposed simultaneous suspension strategy offers a pathway forward. The legal tools to address this crisis exist — Europe just needs to use them, and meet the moment with creativity and courage.

It goes on to say that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has begun conducting business via select groups of trusted Commissioners rather than the whole college, building coalitions of the willing by excluding the unwilling.

The Starmer Coalition of The Willing Is Not Quite So Willing After All

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s plan to create a ‘coalition of the willing’ to provide peacekeepers in Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire seems to be suffering from some setbacks. Italy, a key partner, has pulled out, with Italian Prime Minister Meloni suggesting that Ukraine should instead be offered de facto NATO membership; where it is defended by NATO, through Article 5, even though its not actually a formal member of the organization. It seems doubtful that the US will accept that idea.

Meanwhile, even the joint lead in the putative coalition is getting cold feet. President Macron of France is now said to be exploring a UN peacekeeping force there instead. Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump’s special envoy, has dismissed the Starmer plan as “…a posture and a pose.” He went on to say that the idea was based on a “simplistic” notion of the UK prime minister and other European leaders thinking “we have all got to be like Winston Churchill”.

Is 300 Billion a Magic Number?

According to the EU Council President, António Costa, the EU has lost €300 billion in investments because of high energy costs and excess bureaucracy, which, of course, they have a bold plan to address. Last year, Ursula Von Der Leyen said “The European Union is losing €300 billion of European savings, which are transferred abroad every year, mainly to the United States. This is the money our companies need, and it undermines our competitiveness”. The US negotiators were told, during the talks in Riyadh, that US companies have lost $300 billion by divesting from Russia. During the recent COP29 conference a plan to supply $300 billion per year for developing countries was agreed. And there are supposed to be $300 billion in frozen Russian assets in Euroclear after the EU seized them.

The Green Party is Losing Support

Rising public concerns over inflation, energy costs, and migration have overshadowed the once-popular green agenda, leading to a decline in support for Green parties across Europe.

For example, in the 2024 European Parliament elections, the Greens lost support in most EU countries where they govern, dropping 8.6% in Germany, 7.97% in France, 7.15% in Luxembourg, 6.01% in Ireland, 4.7% in Finland, 3% in Austria, and 1.25% in Belgium compared to 2019. And in Germany’s recent elections, the Greens fell to 11.61% (down from 14.8% in 2021) and lost their place in the CDU-SPD coalition. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is set to step down from leading the party. Fortunately, she is being proposed for the post of the next president of the UN general assembly.

In Germany, the Greens hung around long enough to vote for the release of the debt brake. Merz’s government will spend the new borrowings mainly on arms. European markets soared on the news, in particular defense stocks. Frankfurt’s DAX index, home to Germany’s biggest companies, closed up 0.98% as corporates including Rheinmetall, Bayer, Thyssenkrupp and Continental all advanced.

Oh no!

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74 comments

  1. Robert Hahl

    Since Europe is restricting itself to expensive energy, the only way to avoid deindistrializing (without state directed business investment) is to shift to weapons production. This is because the customers for such products are governments, which can pay the high prices resulting from expensive energy,. They can just print the money.

    Reply
    1. The Rev Kev

      Trouble is that they can print all the money that they want but they can’t print the energy that they will need for all those plants. Well, they may eventually look at rationing energy to their citizens to redirect more energy to those plants. I could see that happening.

      Reply
      1. Who Cares

        It is even worse. Due to privatization countries that would have enough energy, since they are net exporters, cannot keep that energy inside their own borders. So Germany has an energy deficit, now that means your country has an energy deficit since the Germans are buying your energy.

        Reply
  2. The Rev Kev

    ‘President Macron of France is now said to be exploring a UN peacekeeping force there instead.’

    I’ll note that Zelensky has refused the idea of having UN troops sent to keep the peace in the Ukraine and will only accept NATO troops. Based on recent events, if UN troops went into the Ukraine I would fully expect them to be attacked by Ukrainian forces, especially Nazi formations, in order to force them to pull out to open the way for NATO troops. Of course Zelensky is the same person that said that if the Ukraine is not allowed to enter NATO, then Europe will be forced to keep paying Ukraine indefinitely. Those mansions are not going to buy themselves.

    Reply
    1. hk

      If there is a UN force, they should operate in Poland, Finland, the Baltics, and Romania, not Ukraine Russians should handle Ukraine.

      Reply
    2. ChrisPacific

      The article confirmed that a UN peacekeeping force would be a security council decision, which means that both Russia and the USA would have to agree (or at least choose not to veto). I’m struggling to see a scenario in which that happens.

      Macron presenting this as a solution in the event that US and Russian negotiations break down is nonsensical, since it presupposes agreement between the two.

      Reply
  3. LawnDart

    The timing of this Coffee Break seems to suggest that US readers are going to need something much stronger than coffee come mid-afternoon…

    Reply
    1. amfortas the hippie

      aye,lol.
      i am, however, having a tall cup of a strong jamaican coffee(mr coffee bit the dust, so i dug out the french press–always have a plan B…and C->f, at least)
      loaded and hauled 15 sheeps to auction in fredericksburg this morning.
      and then collapsed into a nest of pillows to await the noontime vicodin window…then planted a whole bunch of direct seeded things in all the raised beds scattered around my side of the place.
      and now considering a homegrown hogleg while i recuperate from all this and spend rest of day moving water around….which is what my boys call being on load management(apparently a football term for takin it easy)

      Reply
      1. LawnDart

        Jamaican coffee and a hogleg seems like the perfect way to ease out of an otherwise busy day.

        Rest easy, Hippie.

        Reply
        1. amfortas the hippie

          during winter, i spend far too much time laid up…flashbacks to pre-hip replacement 7 year slog thru disability, etc.
          so spring…and i may hurt from the things i do…but i loathe layin around watching tv.
          and its easier/less painful to read the news of the world from my barstump.
          (this was exceptional:https://newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/constitutional-collapse)
          the problem arises because of 1: the chicken’s schedule(they go in by themselves at dark, otherwise i hafta exert myself with my stick and a 10′ bamboo pole to get them in) and 2: lonely boredom/lack of a farmchick…which ends up with me wanting a pint(or 5…i mean, the keg is right there)
          getting low on the homegrown, too,lol…the new ones are just sprouts.
          it’ll be june before a new crop is even possible.(bud out after summer solstice, due to diminishing light-hours)
          so the cucaracha stashes, in little jars in freezers,are close to being all thats left of all that.
          idk if all this whining is first world problems, or something else.
          i dont generally feel like i’m all that first world.
          more like some undeclared microstate who hasnt got around to joining the non-aligned movement.
          i again thank you all for keeping me at least somewhat sane.

          Reply
          1. mrsyk

            i dont generally feel like i’m all that first world, I usually consider this a blessing, but I’ve still a wife, and I feel for you on that. Not sure I could handle her not being here to talk to.

            Reply
            1. amfortas the hippie

              oh, i talk to her all the frelling time.
              in the form of a jelly jar of her ashes, in her favorite coozy.
              she’s right there, at my elbow.
              as well as all around me, in every little thing.
              it is both a giant fucking hole in my life,
              and a constant Presence.
              all rolled into one.

              Reply
          2. Keith Newman

            @amfortas the hippie at 6:54 pm
            I always find your insights thought-provoking. They help me think outside my usual rut. I have thought I would appreciate meeting you one day but I live in Quebec and you are far away. Thanks for the link. It provided much food for thought.

            Reply
  4. ilsm

    Arming Germany is a bad idea.

    While that happens might as well deploy intermediate range nuclear weapons on both sides.

    No reason for a lot of soldiers to die before MAD!

    Reply
    1. Socal Rhino

      I saw a humorous X post a week or so back writing as Germany, I’ll paraphrase from memory:

      Let’s clarify up front so there are no hard feelings later; you’re saying you want me to re-build my military so I can march across Poland to fight Russia?

      Reply
      1. DJG, Reality Czar

        Socal Rhino

        Except that, whenever the Germans get all dyspeptic and peevish, and have long bows or howitzers, they invade Italy.

        I am not keen on the current Armsaccumulationung, or whatever the word is in German.

        Reply
        1. Keith Newman

          @caucus99percenter at 5:38 pm
          Yikes! “Hilarious, ridiculous, ludicrous — and sad and tragic” indeed. Scary too.

          Reply
      2. Tom Doak

        I keep returning to the great Norm Macdonald’s stand-up act from about 10 years ago:

        “I’m not scared of Iraq, Iran, North Korea. The only country that scares me is the country of Germany. I don’t know if you guys are history buffs or not . . .

        Back at the start of the last century, Germany decided to go to war, and who did they choose as their opponent? The World. And you’re probably thinking, yeah, that would be over in about five seconds, but actually it was close.”

        Reply
    2. nyleta

      The Germans will find that they are not the men that fought in WW2. Like the followers of Napoleon 111 when they exited the salons of Paris to fight Bismark’s men on the field of Sedan, they will find they have no taste for glory and death like the followers of Napoleon 1. That Germany is long gone, ( H/T Arthur Bryant )

      Reply
      1. Daniil Adamov

        It seems different to me. I get the sense that most Germans are extremely reluctant to actually wage war, which surely helps account for the shambolic state of their army (at least if all the news reports I’ve seen about its astounding shortcomings in everything from equipment to personnel over the last few years are anything to go by). Maybe that is changing now, but even so I expect they lag far behind Swedes, Finns and Poles in their eagerness to fight. So the Germans themselves won’t find this very surprising. Maybe outsiders hoping to use them will.

        Reply
  5. .Tom

    Is that the end of consensus decision making in the European Council? If so, what’s the procedure now for deciding when to discount a member’s dissent?

    Reply
  6. Daniil Adamov

    “where it is defended by NATO, through Article 5”

    The very Article 5 that, as previously discussed here several times, does not require anyone to do any specific defending either way…

    NATO membership really is a splendid red herring.

    Reply
    1. mrsyk

      Agreed. Does the EU get a five year ceasefire first? Neoliberalism is the art of mega-graft, and here’s an opportunity. Lots of “future deliverables”, lol, and I can’t imagine there’s a surplus of inventory that would be effective against Russia, I don’t think Putin is concerned.
      On the other hand, how long before it’s Germany vs Turkey? Bloody England is tapped out and can barely afford a pint. France is not going to want to buy too many rounds either.
      I’ll cite Chekhov’s gun for a second time. What a dumb idea.

      Reply
  7. Ignacio

    The White Paper is a wish list which very much resembles previous wish lists, like those of Horizon 2020. It doesn’t matter if most are unachievable in practical terms. The EU is impervious to such difficulties.

    Reply
  8. Ignacio

    That pic showing Kallas eyeing Sanchez in horror is great! I have many reasons not to trust Sánchez but, come on, that was a great moment.

    Reply
    1. DJG, Reality Czar

      Indeed.

      My attitude is if Pedro Sánchez has decided to terrorize Kaja Kallas, who am I to criticize? Besides, he is taller than I am.

      Meanwhile, if she has to remind people that her appointment by Ursula von der Leyen amounts to more than being a rabid warmonger lady, then that’s pretty much all she is, a rabid warmonger lady.

      Reply
  9. James

    Clarification & Elaboration:
    The Greens in Australia have no ties to Germany Greens and have cut ties with them due to their war posture.

    Reply
  10. James

    Despite all the thunder and rumbling from the EU I note that the EU is arming just as Trump demanded.

    They cannot reconcile their position with Trump vis Ukraine officially because then they are adopting the policies of their domestic rivals which will lose them votes. I think they may be working to a position where they are ‘brought around’ which means they can have the official US position on NATO without empowering such parties ad AfD or Reform.

    Reply
  11. Carolinian

    A full version of Alastair Crooke’s column from last week is now available. It is also the basis of his latest talk with Judge Nap.

    https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/03/24/trump-and-putin-begin-addressing-cumulated-geo-strategic-debris-amidst-trump-ultimatum-to-iran/

    It turns out Alastair is relying on the dubious Klippenstein for the notion that the US now has a viable plan to attack Iran and that it might even involve nuclear weapons. This drips of psy-op.

    I really like Crooke but I don’t think he has a very good read on Trump and his World Wrestling inspired trash talk. Backing down from the bluster doesn’t seem to have been a problem for Trump so far this year so there’s no reason to believe the trend won’t continue. And if it doesn’t then it’s time for a third impeachment (or would it be a fourth?).

    Reply
    1. Judith

      This is not a challenge – just a question. I have read a few of Klippenstein’s pieces but don’t know enough about him to judge his work. Can you explain you evaluation of him as “dubious”. Thanks.

      (I agree with you perspective on Crooke).

      Reply
        1. John Steinbach

          Martyanov & Ritter have also expressed concerns that any attack on Iran can’t succeed unless tactical nukes are part of mix. This was discussed on Nima last week.

          Reply
      1. Carolinian

        As I commented the other day the Klippenstein piece in Links was a totally vague reference to a new Pentagon assessment that they can take out Iran with a little bombing in the right places. So my allegation refers to the Pentagon as well as the reporter for treating it as credible–willing conduit or mere click seeker.

        Crooke then relies on this same report to suggest that this is indeed a possible plan based on Trump’s two month threat and that Trump’s language should be taken more seriously than all his similar threats going back to North Korea etc. In today’s video the possibility of both Israel and the US using tactical nukes against Iran is suggested, all seemingly based on Klippenstein’s speculation about the possibilities and Trump’s supposed state of mind.

        To sum up this new worry bead is that we will drop a nuclear bomb on Iran to keep them from getting a nuclear bomb that they aren’t trying to get and the Arab countries, cowed by Lebanon and Syria, might very well stand by and let it happen. To be sure there is such a theory going around but when you say the full prediction out loud it sounds quite insane.

        Trump is certainly rattling around lately but I don’t think he’s that far gone, and I’m also not convinced he’s as attached to Netanyahu as some think. All IMO of course and FWIW.

        In the most recent video with

        Reply
        1. John Steinbach

          Ritter’s point was that if US tries to take out Iran’s nukes & missiles, only tactical nukes will work. There may be disinformation at work, but there’s quite a bit if smoke here.

          Reply
          1. Carolinian

            Whereupon Iran buys an already built nuclear device from Pakistan or North Korea and levels Tel Aviv? Once you open Pandora’s Box there’s no closing it.

            I do believe Netanyahu is crazy and Crooke says a fair number of Israelis think the same thing. But I also believe Trump and the people around him mostly see the region as a giant pot of money to be exploited via business opportunities and suppression of the Arab masses. Trump, who has even said he wants to end all nuclear weapons, is not likely to commit mass murder for mere greed. He thinks bullying and intimidation should be enough.

            With Netanyahu, however, all bets are off. But he can’t attack Iran without the US.

            Reply
            1. amfortas the hippie

              girl, yer really harshin my mellow with all this(very logical) assessment.
              and i think yr right…trumps a real estate agent, writ large.
              or a used car salesman, in another life.
              the polish prez of the genocidal settler state, occupying Palestine, otoh, is either a psychopath backed into a corner, or a true beliver in pseudojewish/zionist destiny….or both.
              someone should hand the latter a pager, methinks.
              ere they go all mosada and samson and all.
              current state of zionism is, apparently, meant to justify the fucking nazis.
              ive been antizionist forever…having known, and liked, many, many more palestinians than jews…let alone actual israelis.
              but i did admire the jewish people for their fortitude(see:max dimont,’jews god, and history’)
              now…well, thats been driven out of me by the pictures that come across my feed.
              children nailed to walls is Nazi shit, period.
              childrenparts in plastic bags is Nazi shit.
              fuck the people who do that, and who allow it.
              because i am antifascist and antiNazi before i am antisemitic.
              if they want to call this genocide “jewish”, so be it.
              looks like nazi, to me.
              they became what they beheld.

              Reply
              1. Keith Newman

                @Carolinian at 10:53 pm
                My take on Klippenstein’s nuke Iran piece was also that it was a psy-op and he was taken for a ride.
                I hope I’m right and we’re not heading to armageddon.

                Reply
        2. vao

          My guess is that all those military plans are a distraction.

          Of course Iranian equipment, bases, and nuclear infrastructure are so well-protected that only resorting to extreme measures — i.e. atomic bombs — will take them out; and the consequences (environmental, diplomatic, geostrategic) are a bit too uncertain and harsh for the USA to contemplate.

          Therefore, in case of an armed conflict, this is not what will happen. Rather, Iran will be subject to the same treatment that Israel inflicted upon Lebanon: instead of attacking the well-protected military installations of Hezbollah, Israel bombed civilian infrastructure, political leadership, and organized the devious beeper attack. Lebanon folded, never daring to return the favours by attacking Israel civilian infrastructure.

          Iranian civilian infrastructure is fragile and dilapidated (much investment in military leaves little for civilian uses), and there are enough groups (notably Kurds, Baluchis, and the MEK) that are ready to organize any kind of attack inside Iran. This is what Israel and the USA will do. No invasion, no ground troops, no trying to take out the nuclear infrastructure: just bomb water treatment plants, power stations, hospitals, harbours, as well as the majlis and other political centres. And wait for Iran to fold, never daring to attack Israel civilian infrastructure.

          Reply
  12. Tom Stone

    Western Elites are incompetent and corrupt to a degree seldom equalled over the last two Millennia, this is partially due to the selection process, however I suspect Covid induced brain damage has a significant role.
    As does drug use.

    Reply
  13. petal

    Not sure if this is the place to put this, but this morning I saw a flyer in the work atrium about some “hands off” protest on April 5th. It listed a bunch of stuff. “Hands off of: medicaid, medicare, SS, our jobs, our wallets, our bodies, fair elections, personal data, public lands, veteran services, cancer research, NATO, consumer protections, clean air, clean energy, schools, libraries, free speech, alphabet people rights(my term not theirs), immigrants, courts, more”.
    I looked it up just now and there is a listing of “partners”. It seems to be quite the organising going on for this. handsoff2025 I think. I was chuckling about the inclusion of NATO for obvious reasons, and for some of the others it’s only bad when the other team does it, apparently. By the time I left this afternoon the flyer had been disappeared.

    Reply
    1. Jonathan Holland Becnel

      Been seeing these on Reddit as well.

      Basically the astroturfed lib version of the Tea Party Express.

      Reply
        1. Jonathan Holland Becnel

          Of course, Petal! A little fat and some residual long coronavirus, but im good.

          Hope you’re doing well 😊

          Reply
    2. amfortas the hippie

      see:https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5211660-democrats-grassroots-energy/

      FTA: Rho K.:”“Is it going to be a Tea Party? No, because the Tea Party wanted to basically destroy the government, tear down the government…Many Democrats, there’s anger, but there’s also aspiration,” Khanna said. “We want to build things, like Medicare for All, like a living wage and a lot of other policies. So you’re going to see a new generation come in with a compelling economic message.””

      which i’ll believe when i see,lol.
      “fighting for…”, etc.
      vault where the dry powder is kept.
      all that.
      dems are well and cooked.
      kinda nuts that america has apparently forgotten how to do revolution, no?

      Reply
      1. ChrisRUEcon

        LOL … this is why they’re destined to lose. As Lambert would say, the GOP is feral, and uprisings from the base are able to very quickly remove pols who don’t listen to said base. To wit:

        > No, because the Tea Party wanted to basically destroy the government, tear down the government

        No Rho, they wanted to get rid of everyone in the GOP who wasn’t conservative enough, or didn’t toe the line, or was perceived as too soft, or who didn’t do enough to keep Obama from winning. And they managed to upend more than a few races.

        Of course Democrats don’t want to rock the boat. A democrat “Tea Party” movement would see the defeat of the likes of Khanna, and that’s why there won’t be one.

        Dems are cooked.

        Reply
        1. amfortas the hippie

          gop has been afraid of its voting base since the early 70’s.
          dems took theirs for granted(bill clinton, circa early 90’s:” where are they gonna go?”)
          here, we see the results.
          cozy up to big$, while pretending…and not very hard, at that…to be for the little people who make things run…well, new messaging just aint gon do it.
          demparty needs to die, and be entombed in a cold mountain vault, soewhere…like nazgul

          Reply
    3. judy2shoes

      Thanks, petal. I went to handsoff2025 website, and found that one of their partners is r/50501. I discovered this outfit because an acquaintance of mine sent me a link to his drive file which has a detailed ‘resistance’ plan gleaned from the ‘best’ ideas showing up in the r/5050l group. In that plan, there’s also a link to another opaque group called the Election Truth Alliance where you can donate money to help the cause. The whole mess sounds fishy to me, and as I read through some of the suggestions, I ran across information about how China and Russia are controlling young people through media. (yeah, right) Sounds like more of what Jonathan Holland Becnel referred to as “the astroturfed lib version of the Tea Party Express.”

      Reply
    4. Rod

      hey petal (cc JHB/mikal and thanx judy2shoes)
      “Not sure if this is the place to put this”
      I don’t think it is—since this Coffee Break is about the EU’s problems primarily—not American Political Protest
      but that is just my opinion——obviously you had your reasons.
      but
      I posted the protest action, Mobilize–HandsOff Ap5 here on Links(?) several days ago AND also provided a link to that organization--so people could see upcoming actions for themself without any color commentary shading it--y’know ?!–

      https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=8e35c4b69a5e7a8d3702e9711fc67e6eb3106c19921caa105fee6df7922e1143JmltdHM9MTc0Mjc3NDQwMA&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=4&fclid=3114917b-a648-60c1-0bee-81c7a764614f&psq=moblize+april+5th&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubW9iaWxpemUudXMvaW5kaXZpc2libGUvZXZlbnQvNzY0NDc2Lw&ntb=1
      right now, there are about 550 protest sites scheduled nationwide for that Saturday Ap. 5th. 550+….
      in my experience that took organization, effort and some money to put it out and on–3 things i couldn’t do alone. maybe you and the cc bunch could–i don’t know
      On that Saturday, I do know I will not be the only sincere one in the crowd though. Y’all ought to come see for yourself. I mean, no one I know ever won a contest by sitting in the bleachers or by just running their mouth.
      I know the police have said they will be at my location— to make everyone feel secure…
      so there is that ;-]

      Reply
    5. Tom Doak

      I guess all the “We Believe” yard signs are fading?

      Unfortunately the new list is too long for a yard sign.

      Reply
  14. Irrational

    Thanks for an interesting article about the EU’s troubles.
    I went back to the original Politico article from which the EUR 300 billion chart comes from (https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-debt-bomb-budget-negotiations-brussels-belgium-27-commissioners-mff-veto/).
    If I understand correctly, the chart shows the difference between repayments by country using current budget arrangements versus the case if countries agree to allow the EU to collect taxes on carbon emissions, imports and the profits of multinationals (which would increase the share of what is termed “own resources”).
    Yes, there might be some slight changes in distribution between what countries directly or indirectly contribute, but I am not sure the motivation is redistributing from North to South / frugals to profligates or whatever the current term is.
    The motivation is and always has been to get more taxation powers for the EU. Most likely countries will say no once again.

    Reply
  15. Jonathan Holland Becnel

    Well, I tried to post the Putin video to r/Stupidpol, and immediately got deleted.

    Putins trying his best to lead the dogs away from war.

    PEACE ALWAYS.

    Appreciate the coffee break after the Watercooler and will try to get used to it!

    Reply
  16. ISL

    Apparently, US military procurement is having extreme difficulties meeting its production quotas due to “supply chain issues” with US (and EU) supply chains all passing from China.

    So how will the US supply European needs over its own needs given that stocks of key rare earths are dwindling rapidly? Its not as if Trump is going to give the Eurocrats a choice to not buy US.

    My SWAG is double or triple the price, and get them to buy F-35 boondoggles with delivery many many years in the future.

    Reply
  17. Yaiyen

    I just feel they are using Ukraine war to end all welfare in Europe and put all that money in arms bigger profit for the elites. So sad, i used to think Europeans had more intelligent than USA, how wrong I was.

    Reply
    1. Mikel

      The USA uses a bit of the “war on China” for some of the same goals.
      This especially sticks out with the “White Paper outlines a number of key lines of action”: Accelerating the transformation of defense through disruptive innovations such as AI and quantum technology.

      Reply
    2. Red Snapper

      You never let a serious crisis go to waste. It’s an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before. Everyone gets a shock therapy!

      P.S. It seems to me that some Europeans have “more intelligent than USA”, we call those Russians.

      Reply
  18. ChrisRUEcon

    #PutinAddressesPeopleInTheWest

    > Putin also addressed business leaders by saying that he can’t see an end to sanctions and that the previous relationship with the West is over.

    LOL … emphasis mine

    Let the history books tell it! The West’s belligerence and utter dishonesty has come home to roost in the most definite of manners. All hail #GenocideJoe and #BlinkenTheBully, who dealt the final blow to American unipolarity.

    Reply
  19. skippy

    Interesting to note Huawei’s AI 6G Satellites, some 10K envisaged with longer life spans, and less reliance on ground stations. Seems Elon is going to have another bad stock day and market share moment.

    At the end of the day it comes back to how America ideologically administrates economics vs China’s approach.

    Reply
  20. AG

    re: Baerbock UN

    Today two of Germany´s highest former members of the UN published an embarrassing dress-down of Baerbock.

    From German daily BERLINER ZEITUNG, machine-translation:

    Annalena Baerbock as UN diplomat: Does Germany want to further harm itself internationally?

    Germany has lost its reputation abroad. The outgoing foreign minister has a large share of this. Her promotion to the UN is incomprehensible.

    A guest article.
    by
    Michael von der Schulenburg
    Hans-Christof von Sponeck

    25.03.2025

    Germany once earned a very good international reputation within the United Nations (UN). Our country has played an active role in the further development of international law, for example, in the adoption of the Conventions on Civil and Political Rights, Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights, the Convention against Torture, and, of course, the Convention on the Status of Women.

    Germany is the fourth-largest contributor to the United Nations. Germany also provides substantial voluntary contributions to United Nations peacekeeping missions. The UN General Assembly overwhelmingly welcomed the German government’s willingness, in cooperation with the government of Namibia, to take the lead in reforming the United Nations. This cooperation enabled the UN General Assembly to adopt a Compact for the Future of the United Nations in September 2024.

    Baerbock has broken a lot of china in terms of foreign policy

    Nevertheless, Germany’s image around the world is no longer what we are honored with. Time and again, the outgoing government has shown no backbone in its responses to the major crises of our time, particularly the war in Ukraine and the asymmetric conflict between Palestine and Israel , as required by the UN Charter and the Geneva Conventions. The one-sidedness of German policy in its statements has repeatedly been met with incomprehension here and even more so abroad. At a major international conference in Istanbul in 2023, discussions with two former foreign ministers, one from the Middle East and the other from Europe , made it clear to us how disappointed they are with German foreign policy.

    As former long-time employees of the United Nations, we have a large network of global contacts. It’s important, however, that these contacts repeatedly demonstrate that German foreign policy has relegated us to a narrow path. Germany continues to lose its reputation and influence in Europe and the world.

    “Foreign policy is made in the Chancellery,” SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich once said. Nothing came of that. The foreign policy china was smashed by the minister, Annalena Baerbock . In the words of Jeffrey Sachs, the well-known former professor at Columbia University and advisor to three UN Secretaries-General: ” Baerbock is a warmonger . I can’t believe what comes out of her mouth.” Sachs reminded everyone that, as a diplomat, a foreign minister must be willing to talk to everyone. But Baerbock’s public appearances have repeatedly shown that she is unwilling to do so.

    She refuses to support reducing tensions or engaging in peace negotiations with a willingness to compromise. She is anything but a bridge-builder. Ms. Baerbock has repeatedly demonstrated that she does not understand international law and the spirit and ethics of the United Nations Charter. She has demonstrated this with statements such as Russia must be damaged so badly that “it will not be able to recover economically for years,” and regarding Ukraine: “We will stand by you as long as you need us, no matter what my German voters think.”

    Other countries do not want to be lectured by Germany

    For Baerbock, “peace through strength” means military, not human security, as repeatedly called for by the United Nations, especially by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Food Programme (WFP) and, of course, by UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

    It goes without saying that the current Foreign Minister has caused considerable damage to Germany and Europe through her numerous, mostly unsuccessful, trips to the country’s international relations. The governments of countries such as India, China, and Malaysia, as well as others, have confirmed to the German Foreign Minister during her visits that her attempts to lecture and her know-it-all attitude are not welcome.

    Why do we point this out? Because we don’t understand why the now-outgoing German government, despite her substandard performance, is choosing Annalena Baerbock over Helga Schmid for the position of President of the UN General Assembly for 2025/26. Annalena Baerbock has neither multilateral nor bilateral experience, while Helga Schmid, as a former Secretary General of the OSCE and a senior diplomat at the Federal Foreign Office, has precisely the experience that is urgently needed at the United Nations.

    We believe that the new government should seriously consider how Germany can appropriately fill the important position of President of the UN General Assembly to avoid further damage to our reputation in the world. This at a time when many governments, especially in the non-Western world, and non-governmental organizations are advocating for a more just and multilateral new order, as envisioned in the UN Compact for the Future of the United Nations.

    Hans-Christof von Sponeck (born 1939) is a former Assistant Secretary-General of the United Nations

    Michael von der Schulenburg (born 1948), is a former UN Assistant Secretary-General and currently a Member of the European Parliament for the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance

    Reply
  21. Jesper

    The leaders of the ‘coalition of the willing’ appears to be willing to do one thing: Spend other peoples money. What they are not willing to do is travel to Kiev and volunteer to serve in the military.

    The different proposals are interesting in what is included and in what is excluded.

    What appears to be excluded is an increase of the number of people either working in the defense-industry or in the military.

    Increasing the number of people in well paid and secure employment (?) would likely decrease the amount of people working in the gig-economy and in the service-industry. Bargaining-power of people would improve and at times I suspect that strengthened bargaining-power for ordinary people is something our ‘elite; hates the most. I mean no more cheap food-deliveries, cheap ride-shares, cheap cleaners of their homes, cheap tutors, cheap gardeners, cheap personal security, cheap farm workers, cheap etc etc

    My guess is that they will have to find a way to increase war-capabilities without decreasing their own personal power over people around them. The only solution is probably seen as something technology-based and our elite will be so desperate to believe in that solution that they will be willing to pay anything and everything to anyone willing to sell them something that can be claimed to have even a slight chance of success.

    Boondoggles,waste, cronyism and kickbacks (some legal but with poor optics, some might be even cross over to being illegal) to come.

    Reply

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