If one were to believe much of the Ukraine skeptic and/or Trump friendly commentary since Trump called Putin on February 12, Trump and Putin were going to in short order negotiate a peace deal with Ukraine and make Ukraine, the EU, and NATO swallow it. That was to be accompanied by normalization of commercial dealings between the US and Russia, which would seem to mean the lifting of some or even pretty much all of the US sanctions against Russia.
We’ll explain below how this plan for Trump as master-dealmaker going mano-a-mano with Putin and emerging victorious, or at least with a reasonably-face-saving agreement, has gone pear-shaped. And we have to say that we have been telling you so for quite a while.1
The short version of what happened in Saudi Arabia is Ukraine made the non-concession of agreeing to a one month ceasefire in turn for resuming weapons deliveries and intel support.2. Keep in mind that a ceasefire is to Ukraine’s benefit, since it can give its troops a rest, dragoon more, get a month of additional weapons supplies. That is why the Russians have been in “No ceasefire, no how, no way until we have a complete deal” mode back to the first talks, in Istanbul in March-April 2022.
So this fiction that a ceasefire is a real option for advancing a settlement has the effect of making sure the war continues with US backing, which is what Zelensky & Co. want. And the predictable rejection by Russia will sour the prospect of a meaningful warming of relations, another outcome Ukraine keenly desires.
In other words, The Ukrainians got the US to throw them into the briar patch…and think that that was the US idea!
We said the prospects of a settlement of the war, absent a regime change in Kiev, Ukraine capitulation, or Russia otherwise forcing Ukraine to accept its terms, were nada. There is no overlap between their positions. Russia has no reason to make anything more than trivial or cosmetic concessions because it will win and its momentum is accelerating. But the Ukraine side is dug in because its government is in the control of hard-core Banderites. A combination of an eschatological bent and the recognition that they’d be high on the list of Russian war criminals means many would rather ride on a white horse into a Wagnerian pyre rather than wind up in a gulag or worse.3
Many commentators relied on the notion that the US, as Ukraine’s big sponsor, could nevertheless bring the Ukraine government to heel by, as Trump threatened to do, cut off arms supplies and intel (there is debate over the degree to which that actually happened). However, as we pointed out, as weak as Ukraine appears to be, it still has agency. It still holds most of Ukraine.
And Ukraine made clear that its intent is to hold out and punish Russia as much as it can. The big drone attacks on Moscow and other parts of Russia, launched on the very eve of the US-Ukraine talks in Jeddah, was a very clear raised middle finger to Russia and the US peace scheme. The Moscow strikes were pure terrorism, on civilian apartment buildings. Aside from being an unmistakable statement of Ukraine hostility to a settlement, they will increase popular support in Russia for continuing to prosecute the war.
The even weaker and embarrassingly behind-the-plot Europeans also have agency. Even though they cannot influence Trump or Russia, they have been noisily and enthusiastically showing their support for Zelensky. Those scenes will extend his sell-by date in Ukraine, particularly since the controlled Ukrainian press may be able to do a pretty good job of keeping up the pretense that the Europeans can do more than send a pathetically small amount of weapons.
So let’s return to the plot: remember that the view that Zelensky and the Ukraine leadership were goners hardened after the unprecedented, on camera Oval Office row. That event had been planned to show Zelensky largely on the same page as Trump before they had lunch and signed the infamous minerals deal. Although the session started out on a friendly footing, Zelensky persisted in pressing Trump for security guarantees and insisted it would be unwise to agree on a ceasefire with Russia, since Putin was untrustworthy, with Zelensky serving up wildly misrepresented history to support his claims. Effectively telling Trump that Putin would outmaneuver him (true independent of Zelensky’s revisionism) looked to have really gotten Trump’s dander up.
He apparently persisted after the cameras stopped rolling, rather than backing down or apologizing for his part in the heated exchange, which got him and his team expelled from the White House. That is before getting to the elephant in the room, that for Lord only knows how long, every time the topic of a Ukraine agreement has come up, the Russians top to bottom have felt compelled to say “No cessation in hostilities until the roots of the conflict have been addressed.” Lavrov has also taken to adding that, as the Minsk Accords demonstrated, a ceasefire merely gives Ukraine the opportunity to rearm and resume the war.
So what does the Trump Administration think it is doing by retying the Ukraine millstone to its neck? This isn’t Trump’s war. The Oval Office row provided him with the perfect excuse to cut Zelensky loose, even put new elections as the condition for providing much help, and provide only bare bones support (not that the US could do more than that on the weapons front) so as to blunt criticism that the US was abandoning Ukraine, as opposed to getting them to sober up about their true condition.
One possibility is that the US really believes that Russia is faring badly economically and is taking high enough manpower losses so as to make the war hard to sustain, and so all the Putin/Lavrov talk about “no ceasefire” is posturing and they will accept the ceasefire to start talks.
A variant of this line of thinking is the profit rather than cost side: that Russia stands to benefit so much from economic relief and resumed trade with West that it will get over itself and start negotiating with Ukraine. Recall that Rubio has said there would be no sanctions relief before an agreement was reached to end the war.
Another option is that the neocons (and recall Rubio is a neocon) have successfully played on Trump’s fixation with ceasefires, knowing that Russia won’t play ball. So Trump will look foolish (of course assuming Trump does not find some way to fabricate what happened to present himself as driving events). And he’ll get angry at Putin and the Russians, which will either stop or greatly reduce the possibility of better relations.
Finally, Trump may, even more than before, be in “All tactics and no strategy is the noise before the defeat” mode. It is becoming more and more apparent that his top priority is dominating any interaction, no matter whether that advances any long term aim. Trump and his allies derived pleasure from beating up on Zelensky during and after the White House row. Even though Zelensky asked for it (at a minimum by not donning a suit), what did the US gain? Zelensky ran around Europe, getting support that bolstered him at home. The US, despite holding the cards, got bupkis in Jeddah aside from some optics.4
Mind you, this does not necessarily mean Russia will not deign to sit down with Ukraine. Putin (without parsing it quite so crisply) has repeatedly said he is willing to meet. But he and his officials have also consistently said a whole bunch of things need to be in place before actual negotiations start, like Ukraine withdrawing from the four oblasts and revoking the various decrees and Constitutional terms that bar negotiations. Oh, and clarifying who could actually sign a deal were one to be agreed.
So Russia may come up with a device to look minimally cooperative, like say an initial tea and cookies chat, with either then or shortly thereafter some process requirements before the ceasefire could be entertained. To put it another way, the only question seems to be how Russia decides to play appearances while not accepting this offer.
For more a more in-depth account, Simplicius has done a great job of one-stop shopping in US and Ukraine Hatch ‘Ceasefire’ Travesty which I urge you to read in full. Simplicius’ posts tend to be a mix of well-documented finds and more speculative ones, with him not often well flagging that some of his tidbits are iffier than others. So a quick discussion of his noteworthy items:
The scheme as an insult. Simplicius is contemptuous, as we are, and he invokes Scott Ritter:
I’ve lost faith in the good faith of the Trump negotiating team. A 30-day ceasefire would be a boon to Ukraine. A chance to stabilize the frontlines. To strip all tactical and operational advantages Russia has accrued through the blood and sacrifice of their soldiers. And once Ukraine recovers, then to sit at a table where a rejuvenated Ukraine rejects Russia’s conditions for peace.
Trump’s team has not negotiated in good faith. And the fact that this proposal is offered after Ukraine carries out a massive strike against Moscow? Russia will reject this ridiculous proposal.
Lockstep messaging, that “No peace” will now be Putin’s fault. Wellie, technically that is true regardless. The Russians could elect to stop fighting at any time. So the idea that coordinated whinging will move the Russians is yet more Western obsession with messaging over real world outcomes. But it’s getting a bit too obvious:
Doubts as to whether the US really did cut off arms and intel. One could imagine, given logistics, that it might be hard to stop arms supplies quickly (where do you put weapons already en route?). The theory is it’s easier to halt SIGINT, such as satellite images and real-time information. But Starlink stayed on, when that being one company, would presumably be easy to switch off and on (although Twitter’s terrible performance this week might suggest otherwise). Again courtesy Simplicius:
One could further argue that the US saying it has halted supplies was more important than that actually happening right away, given that the big objective were to impress US taxpayers that Trump was a tough guy and beating Ukraine into line, and to cow the Europeans and the Ukraine government.
I must have heard one of the YouTubers incorrectly because I though a Trump-Putin phone call was set for this Friday. Instead, the Kremlin has cleverly said a call could be organized quickly, putting the onus on the White House to ask for it. This also may be intended to make the point that Russia does not accept negotiation via press release, that someone needs to make a formal approach to Russia with whatever this proposal amounts to before anyone on the Russian side gets out of bed.
But in case you harbor any doubts, Lavrov has been relentlessly on message about a ceasefire being a non-starter:
❗️Lavrov on Russia's attitude to a ceasefire without resolving the causes of the conflict:
What is important to us is not a ceasefire that will allow Ukraine to be armed once again and again directed at our country, but a long-term sustainable peace based on the elimination of… pic.twitter.com/S7IW1dtLdL
— Sunt Förnuft (@mr__quake) March 11, 2025
So are Trump and State Department as dumb as they look? There’s no clever plot here, just hubris and unwillingness to listen. We’ll see soon enough what shakes out.
____
1 To keep this post focused, we will spare you a recitation of how Russian officials, from Putin on down, have given extensive, and over time more detailed, accounts of what lying sacks of shit we Americans are. They have told Russian citizens and its allies that we are utterly untrustworthy….including that if the US ever got an honorable leadership group, that could all be unwound after a change in the White House. The implication is that Russia would need extremely strict and extensive guarantees of performance by the West, ones they’d be likely to balk at for (correctly) impugning US/NATO reliability.
2 If you read the Joint Statement, the only other Ukraine obligation is agreeing consummate the minerals deal and the naming of Ukraine members of a negotiating team. But Zelensky immediately offered that as soon as he was tossed out of the White House. So this was not a concession extracted during the negotiations, merely a confirmation of an existing commitment. Rubio reaffirmed that the minerals pact would not include a security guarantee.
And as for the negotiating team….Ukraine knows, even if the US does not, that Russia will not accept this proposal, so naming a team is just a PR gesture.
It also appears that some of the meeting was devoted to coming up with initial demands for Russia:
The delegations also discussed the importance of humanitarian relief efforts as part of the peace process, particularly during the above-mentioned ceasefire, including the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.
3 In fairness, some may hope they can make a late-in-game run to a safe haven like Canada and get enough plastic surgery to enable them to live a quiet life.
4 I don’t buy the notion that not allowing Zelensky a seat at the table was a monster put down. If it does not lead to concessions (and is seems not even to have led to Zelensky being markedly more worried about his job security), what’s the point? And as a negotiator, you NEVER want a principal (Zelensky) facing off with agents (US officials who are not final decision-makers). It can be exploited in what I call double-brokering: the agents on one side get the principal on the other to agree to something. Then the agents go back and their principal says no to something, which usually succeeds in getting the principal on the other side to give more ground.
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Excellent piece, Yves. I noticed that autocorrect has changed Minsk to Minks.
Haha, fixing, thanks!
It’s Briar Patch. Br’er is short for Brother.
Want to second; I don’t always have time to follow this tragic proxy war in much detail, and these posts always inform and enlighten on the actual state of affairs.
Thanks!
The US is indeed agreement-incapable… All the more now as they don’t have all the cards.
https://open.substack.com/pub/finnandreen/p/the-us-is-agreement-incapable?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android
It’s a strange one. I thought the US objective was a face-saving exit. Now, one has to wonder what the US is trying for, unless they’re genuinely so poorly informed that they think this will work. I guess we’ll have to stay tuned.
I suppose in defense of Trump one could point out that he’s no more superficial than most of our recent presidents. We get people who are qualified to win the presidency but not to run it. Obama pretended to one thing and turned out to be another. The Clintons pretended to be “wonks” but he seemed more interested in “bimbo erruptions” and she, small town lawyer, advocated one FP disaster after another.
So it’s still possible that Trump will get a clue and indeed make peace with Russia. This weathervane could swing yet again.
How is one “qualified to win the Presidency?” By breathing air, perhaps? To the final question in the article: Yes, Trump and company (Rubio!) are as dumb as they look (and sound).
Breathing (being alive) is only one. The other two are: a US citizen and over 35 Y.O.
(Being clear minded isn’t required: See Joe Biden.)
Over 34; actually 35.
Preferably with an IQ larger than their shoe size – but this rule has been set aside for many years now (see Joe Biden).
Politically qualified–able to win the election.
Fogging a mirror?
My understanding (welcome correction) is that if the U.S. accepts an outcome where Ukraine is barred from joining NATO, it’s the end of “rules-based order” i.e. our ability to make any arrangement with anyone we like without a third party being able to say anything about it. So it’s about U.S. policy world-wide, not just Ukraine.
I want to understand the genesis of that uniform messaging: where does it originate; who coordinates it and to what extent; who distributes it.
The Collective Biden’s cold undead fingers wrapping slowly around an incipient Collective Trump.
I guess it’s the digital version of what Putin described as “the men in dark suits”, but who exactly are they?
I don’t think “the US objective” is something that really exists. US politics and government is a mess and there are lots of people and entities with conflicting agendas that have influence.
I think Trump is getting buffaloed like in his first term. I think Yves’ option numbers 3 (“Another option…”) and 4 (“Finally, …”) are working together. In so many ways I don’t think Trump or his team have what it takes to pursue policy that incumbent powers vigorously oppose.
In the Oval Office on camera Trump told Ze “you are losing”. “I do not want to hear propaganda”.
This offer is a bit odd given Trump sounded better informed a week ago last Friday.
What does keeping arms and targeting gifts coming say about giving Ze a 30 day reprieve to refit?
Ploy is doomed!
That “lockstep messaging” is something to behold. I can almost see Brian B. getting his next post ready.
My prediction since this started, is that they become a large part of the European underworld. Well armed, fanatical, pissed at being left out to dry and have to get out of Ukraine.
Those armored Mercedes and tactical police vehicles will be no match for drones and RPGs.
That we would eventually find a way to helicopter off the embassy roof has also been a given. This time or next.
My prediction since this started, is that they become a large part of the European underworld.
Of course.
And not only the European -underworld – when you’ve read about ‘Russian mafias’ already in the US during recent decades, they’ve more often than not actually Russians but Ukrainians.
The irony here is that anyone with half a brain would realize Russia’s real long term concern would be the Chinese eyeing eastern Russia.
That the West pushed them into the same corner and forced them to work together is far more a benefit to their long term relationship than is yet apparent.
Basically Europe just needs a boogyman to keep from fighting each other.
Russia’s long-term concern is China eyeing eastern Russia? Please help my quarter brain understand your point. Thanks
If you are referring to the Ukrainians here, it is my understanding they were already quite influential in organized crime.
Perhaps you mean in the 19th-century Sicilian mafia sort of way…
This here really reaffirms my belief that competency in the West has been reduced to only being successful at managing appearances (and even there they only succeed if you don’t look closely). Demanding that the PMCs actually do something that matters and something that is in interest of their electorate is farfetched.
Thanks for the write-up. I especially like the Sun-Tzu quote – tactics w/o strategy is the noise before defeat.
Trump really screwed the pooch on this. I thought the possibly staged WH imbroglio with Z-boy was the perfect exit strategy. Yet, here we are again, back to square one.
With every passing day, the chances of Trump getting this off his plate and blaming Biden diminish. It’s going to be his tar-baby. It would not surprise me to see him having to introduce another Biden-type request for more money for Ukraine, with the Freedom Caucus refusing, and forcing the Swamp-creature Mike Johnson to look for Democrat votes to pass it.
I called him “Brump” back in January, but was half-joking. Perhaps I was on to something.
It’s all marketing and empty PR slogans: Hope and Change blah blah, Make blah blah, blah blah and all that.
Bidump. Bidrump.
‘Murica shouldn’t be negotiating “Cease-Fires” on behalf of Ukraine – ‘Murica should be negotiating Terms of Ukraine’s SURRENDER to the Russian Federation.
Everything about this administration says hubris to me. Screams it really. The Dems might be shrewd to keep their heads down, calculating that the mid-terms will be handed to them.
Shrewd… or simply haven’t a clue how to respond?
They’re on board, watch the Continuing Resolution gymnastics they’re going through to pretend they’re not supporting Musk, DOGE, the whole Gran Guignol.
Zelensky is still saying today that he wont accept any loss of territory for Ukraine. So the ball, as it were, is still very much in his court, as one of the fundamental requirements from Russia is that the areas liberated by them must be recognised as now Russian.
The entire process is a propaganda exercise to enable western mainstream media to scream in unison everyone wants peace except Putin – he very bad man.
Perhaps Putin’s best response is no reply at all. Or a functionally useless counter – “Dear Donald, nice D.O.G.E. you’ve got there. How ’bout we meet in Istanbul in June? I hear that the weather is lovely there, that time of year.
Better still, Putin ought to add another condition must met be prior to ANY negotiating a cease fire: All US and NATO forces and bases be withdrawn and destroyed, back to those that existed when The West promised not one inch of advancement.
Or, at least, require that Russia-friendly (Chinese? Indian? Belarussian? North Korean? Vietnamese?) peacekeepers be stationed in NATO controlled Europe and be empowered to inspect the military installations to ensure that there is no funny business (weapons smuggling etc). So, Chinese garrisons in London, LIverpool, Hamburg, Borbeaux, Ramstein, Rzerzew (sp?), Reval, and so on to forcibly and intrusively poke through NATO installations and transportation infrastructure and ensure compliance by the Europeans and override local authorities when necessary. (Sorta of intended to be snark, but this isn ‘t too far from the kind of “peacekeeping” demands that have been made by the West on many occasions.)
In 2014 Lughansk and Donetz seceded, the little green men are myth. The heavy lifting was local militia.
Minsk I was negotiated bc the militia had a Kievan occupation force surrounded.
Kiev shelled them for 8 years
Thinking that Trump is a serious peacemaker is the flip side of thinking he’s Hitler; both takes are deluded, because outside of his personal compulsion to dominate and accumulate, he has no fixed beliefs or strategies.
Serious peacemakers, fwiw, are not peaceniks. Bismarck, for instance, is a good example. One might even include Stalin among those who sought “peace” all the time. Even Hitler himself, on various occasions, was a peacemaker (he and Pilsudski were of like mind about the way things were to be in Eastern Europe in the early half of 1930s, thus the German-Polish rapproachment at that time, despite Pilsudski’s successors dropping the ball some years later. Plus, he did mediate (to dissatisfaction of many, it must be said) in Hungarian-Slovak and Hungarian Romanian disputes to diffuse violence (and even offered, quite seriously, I think, to mediate between China and Japan–Chiang Kai Shek was considered a serious potential ally by many in Germany in 1930s, after more than a decade of goodwill and fairly close cooperation between Germany and KMT China.)
Stalin did not only sought peace, but he achieved it. There were no wars in Europe till 1991. Back in those days we considered the idea of another war in Europe to be unfathomable. If it wasn’t for the US imperial ambitions, that peace would still last.
Thanks for yet another sober assessment. The “Trump-friendly” commentators should all credit Yves and others for remaining as objective as humanly possible, as well as maintaining accuracy. They should also admit they engaged in a bit of wishful thinking and hopeful speculation that was not grounded in fact.
“…We’ll explain below how this plan for Trump as master-dealmaker going mano-a-mano with Putin and emerging victorious, or at least with a reasonably-face-saving agreement, has gone pear-shaped. And we have to say that we have been telling you so for quite a while…” That’s right, but the deranged anti-Trump and deranged pro-Trump false dichotomy still continues…facts don’t matter it seems.
I still can’t understand how, after all the empty PR, lies and BS from the DT1 regime (and of course the mass media monopolies), the JB regime, and now DT2, that we can take any blah blah at face value. Some commentators, in doing so, have diminished their own credibility.
Most of the discourse we are bombarded with is mostly PR and BS: there is a contrived, “straw man” conflict between the prof-DT crowd and the anit-DT crowd. But both “sides” are phony – it’s as if our friends in Langley are writing all of this contrived drama, as a giant smokescreen and a way to distract and divide everyone. They do have assets in academia, media, and government after all…
This is about as much we can expect from politicians (both so-called parties), mass media cartel mainstream discourse. I would rather listen to this than the mind-numbing nonsense from politicians. (from Rock and Roll Hall of Fame induction speech)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2i2ZbJnkFEY
Kayfabe
What we would expect from a 2013 WWE Hall of Fame inductee!
There are evidences showing that the West believes to have cleverly brought Russia to a trap (the ball on Russia’s court repeat): if you don’t accept our “ceasefire” conditions it means you are the baaad guy here. Not very different from the previous aborted try in Switzerland. Though after all these years of attrition a one-month pause might look a mistake by Russia there is the possibility that Russia has more to gain from a pause than Ukraine. Or at least that a rasputitza pause won’t hurt them even if Ukraine accumulates more weapons. In the end, I take it for certain that the Ukrainians cannot help themselves and would be the first to break a ceasefire with any idiotic stunt. The Russians know it and would be prepared. So, it wouldn’t be surprising If Russia says “yes” with a few extra conditions attached and passing the ball to CW’s court.
Yep, Switzerland fait accompli attempt came to my mind instantly.
Yep, but the ROW has been listening to the Russians clearly repeat the same conditions, and clearly repeat the same bill of particulars of Western deceit for going on a year now.
No one believes anything Western leaders say outside broadcast range of The Might Wurlitzer, whose reach has, thanks to DOGE, shrunk mightily.
So much so, in fact, western leaders have simply abandoned the notion of legitimacy and appear to be running things as if they’re under marshal law, which appears to be what they want the EU to become: a marshal European government by NATO.
What do you think Russia gains by allowing for a one month pause?
If you stronger militarily, and have the advantage on the battlefield, and your economy can continue to both keep your troops supplied and your country in decent operating or order, why go for a pause that would allow the Ukrainians to either supply their positions safety or withdraw men from precarious positions (such as Kursk). Is there any PR propaganda war gain for Russia in allowing for a ceasefire?
To your point, the Russians know that even if they came up with good spin, it would never be taken up by the Western press. As for the Global South, they have paid attention to Putin’s and Lavrov’s many many speeches on the background of the war and are sympathetic with the Russian position, even if they do not like the fact of the war.
They also, unlike Americans, have memories longer than goldfish and know that wars routinely continue as negotiations are on….just as happened in Afghanistan, Vietnam, and the Korean War.
The only possible such guarantee is Russian troops in Uzhgorod, Drogobich and Novovolinsk
Hmm. Add Spandau, Gdansk, and Vilnius.
Trieste.
Hamburg, Brest, Cherbourg, Bordeaux, and Liverpool.
I was thinking more along the line Trieste – Hamburg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Iron_Curtain_as_described_by_Churchill.PNG
I am now wondering if Trump’s whole approach regarding the ceasefire offer to Russia is a move which is the reverse of the Godfather tactics. Remember Godfather? – Make an offer that the other guy cannot refuse. Trump is making offers that the other party is bound to refuse,…although not clear where that takes you, unless you want more of the same, or an excuse to walk away. . He is a bit of a godfather after all, what with his protection and extortion rackets!
No, please don’t insult the traditional Cosa Nostra. Back in the day, they had a code of ethics. For example, they didn’t kill women and children, and didn’t kill men in front of their families. Successive US regimes have done just that, not just in Palestine, but all over. The DT is parody, and like JB, is starting to show signs of cognitive decline.
But then again, he is a more honest representation of the corrupt, declining empire
There is a precedent for this: Rambouillet (sp?)
The thing was intended to be rejected by the Serbs so that NATO could intervene–except the KLA tbought the deal was lousy so they had to be browbeaten hard to accepting tbe deal.
What I’m not so sure here is who’s KLA and who’s Serbia here, though. Everyone–EU, Ukraine, and Russia, are all being offered such rotten deals that they can’t be considered “serious,” except nobody wants to be seen rejecting what they are offered outright. I still think Trump is not so much interested in these “proposals” as much as the counterproposals which will reveal information.
Basically, echolocation, but not necessarily a bad thing. Maybe. Hopefully.
Yes. There have been many such offers over the years. I believe Bush presented Saddam such an “option” before carrying out the preplanned destruction of Iraq. But what I can’t *quite* decide yet is whether this is intentional, as with Cheney, Albright, etc., or whether Trump actually thinks this is a legitimate first step. Despite Trump’s political street smarts, he is very much an amateur in over his head on most issues. His hubris doesn’t help.
Sorry but i think the idea being presented to us that Trump is a friend to Putin that USA is a friend to Russia is just a trick being played by the USA , the fall out with Zelensky on tv in the white house was a charade all planned the idea being that they would end up where they are now , trying to make Putin and Russia look like the bad guy and the bombing of Moscow by Ukraine on the day of the peace meeting in Saudi just proves exactly where this is , USA and EU and UK are still coordinating a campaign against Russia with Zelensky roaming the world trying to look like the good guy who needs justice.Zelensky is as much an unreliable person as Trump , Starmer and Der Leyen , i hope Russia end the war but the only way they can is by ending the soft approach they have taken to date , they have kept the major Ukraine cities and towns intact but i fear that will not continue now.
Russian Federation should require normal diplomacy exist prior to DC introducing any initiatives. That process include freeing financial assets stolen, and end of all sanctions,
Peace between DC and RF is the plum to get RF talking about NATO encroachment before stating: “you talked to Vietnam in Paris in1970 with no ceasefire”.
Fox is screaming Trump “win”, and Russia could have stopped any time. The neocon plan.
I should have mentioned that…that that was the outcome of the Russia-US talks and Russia had been pretty insistent that that happen first before anything else moved forward. So it would not be hard for Russian officials to broken record that, say this press release is all well and good but they can’t entertain anything before the diplomatic plumbing is operational again.
And yet after listening to long interview with Lavrov by 3 bloggers, Judge N., L.Johnson, and M. Nawfal, Lavrov seemed hopeful that Trump understands Russia’s position on NATO expansion, causes of the conflict etc. Maybe it’s just Lavrov being diplomatic, but he sounded somewhat hopeful that the new U.S Administration would act rationally, and with understanding of historical facts. But as indicated above, it maybe that Russia is just being cooperative, like you say only ready have tea, cookies and chat at this stage.
The Lavrov interview: https://www.rt.com/news/614088-lavrov-bloggers-trump-ukraine/
Summary here: https://www.rt.com/russia/614063-lavrov-ukraine-self-sabotage/
“A ceasefire only benefits those who are retreating.” https://www.rt.com/russia/614082-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-experts/
My grave concern is that Trump’s obsession with “winning” every interaction will result in a foolhardy escalation.
for those who can´t get RT
interview:
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s interview to the US bloggers, March 12, 2025
90 min.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICvOkguQsk4
transcript
https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/2002637/
Russia is steadfast in what it wants. Trump is living 60 years in the past. The collective west has no real bargaining power with Russia other than excepting their terms to resolve the situation. Russia will just keep taking more area. On the drones, Russia knows the locations of the Ukrainian drone factories. They are located in dense civilian areas. So they haven’t taken the out. Once the weather changes, you’ll probability see them start taking out a lot of infrastructure. This will limit the amount of drones. Their won’t be any real economy in Ukraine by mid summer. One thing everyone seems to be missing is the collective western economies. The EU and UK are approaching macroeconomic collapse and the US is not in that good of shape. So all Putin has to do is wait and continue the course. And, the economic realities will solve the situation.
And just like that the little goodwill Trump may have built up with Russia “goes poof”. Presenting ridiculous offers does tend to make people feel disrespected and insulted, to say nothing of being treated as though they were stupid. And the path back from that tends to be long and arduous with no guarantee that trust can be regained. Trump’s obsession with being the top dog in the room barking out orders trumps his sincerity and desire for peace, Zelensky has been lobotomized by his coke addiction and the Europeans have him believing he’s a latter day Winston Churchill on course to defeat Russia, extracting peace from such a cast of characters is nigh on impossible. The Russians will just have to prosecute the war to its logical end, the other side is just throwing up fodder disguised as a ceasefire proposal for smear merchants in the western msm to scream “Putin rejected the deal and is the roadblock to peace”.
Amen! The simple truth from Thuto.
Anyone who has ever bought ‘The Art of the Deal’ should insist they get their money back. Trump doesn’t appear to be the dealmaker that he claimed to be :)
Well he did save us from Biden and then Kamala who seemingly had no interest in peace at all. My brother thinks Trump is crazy but I’d say it’s more the typical business bad boss personality–punch down, suck up. Zelensky groveled after the punching down and so may have returned to Trump’s good graces. However I think Trump in turn is intimidated by Putin who is the real deal and not a TV actor like Z (and Trump). IMO we’re still in wait and see mode.
“Saved us from Biden and Kamala” is like an updated version of lesser evilism. One I don’t buy. It’s just more incompetence and greed, only the targets have changed.
But folks have to “believe” in something, politics has little to do with facts.
The US has declining quality of life for the vast majority, and has no functioning democracy, so millions desperately WANT to believe the empty blah blah of professional liars, be it, Obama, Biden or Trump. Instead of complaining about being stabbed in the back, they will make excuses: “he didn’t mean to stab us in the back, it was the ____’s fault. “”
Of course it’s lesser evilism but when the viable choices are two then lesser evil is better than more evil. The problem with the Dem’s perennial lesser evil strategy is that they are often more evil. Example: more than a million dead in Ukraine, tens of thousands in Gaza. I don’t think the former would have happened without Biden’s arranged war. As for the future of the latter we’ll see.
For the record I didn’t vote for Trump–or anyone.
gaza.
Going along with evil is, I’m sorry to tell you, itself evil. And the claim “But there is worse evil than my evil!” just let’s one know there is further evil that one can (and, being already on that road, surely soon will) still do.
But trying to fight alleged evil with your own evil is itself evil. That, in fact, is the source of tbe worst of all evils, imho. (I think Dostoevsky said something like this…the worst evils are done by those think themselves most righteous, or something like that.)
These preposterous “peace talks” are like the schemings of coke heads about opening up a themed restaurant – not gonna amount to jack
March 2, 2025
British Ambassador: Zelensky Should Give “Unequivocal Backing” To Trump’s Peace Initiative
British Ambassador to the U.S. Lord Peter Mandelson said the U.K. believes President Zelensky must give “his unequivocal backing to the initiative that President Trump is taking to end the war and to bring a just and lasting peace,” Sunday morning on ABC’s “This Week.”
[…]
LORD PETER MANDELSON, U.K. AMB. TO U.S.: My response is that we need a very radical reset, as you say in the caption behind you. And the reset has to consist of the United States and Ukraine getting back on the same page, and President Zelenskyy giving his unequivocal backing to the initiative that President Trump is taking, to end the war and to bring a just and lasting peace to Ukraine.
And the Europeans, George, too, they need to back the cause for a ceasefire. And by the way, I think that Ukraine should be the first to commit to a ceasefire and defy the Russians to follow. And then as part of the unfolding plan for this negotiation, the Europeans, and perhaps some other countries too, have got to consider how they are going to put forces on the ground to play their part in providing enduring security and deterrence for Ukraine.
Now, that’s the reset that we are looking for. That’s what the British prime minister is working for in his meeting in London today. [ETC.]
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2025/03/02/british_ambassador_zelensky_must_give_unequivocal_backing_to_trumps_peace_initiative.html
It looks like the British (and French) came up with that plan and got Trump to buy into it.
Maybe the US is just engaging in these ‘peace’ talks to tie up Russia in some ‘agreement’ so that Bibi can unleash on Iran. We’ll see how long this process continues. With neocon USA, nothing to trust here. For trump, more cameras please.
Interesting article in the British intelligence house journal The Guardian this afternoon. Asking what leverage Trump has over Putin. It regurgitates all the propaganda painting Putin as desperate (under the surface). Namely that Russia has suffered extremely heavy losses in men and materiel. That Russia is both economically isolated and isolated in terms of allies. That Putin thinks, for some strange reason, Russia is winning – despite very slow progress on the battlefield – and so on. I do wonder if the authors, obviously reasonably intelligent individuals, of such pieces simply swallow Ukrainian propaganda and believe it, or it is purely to preserve their own rice bowls. Any objective analysis of the fact would tell them otherwise.
Minor addition to the economic hardship will drive the Russians to accept options (first and second).
Russia considers what the USA wants with Ukraine as an existential threat and, as they have been telling anyone in earshot, if this threat can’t be resolved by talking then it will be resolved by force.
Any economic hardship that USA can push onto Russia is preferable to that.
And the DT1 regime imposed “sanctions” on Russia, withdrew from the INF treaty etc. then JB imposed more sanctions, etc. Despite all this, the GDP of Russia reportedly grew by 4.1% in 2024. DT threatens even more “sanctions” and tariffs if Russia does not comply. No shortage of tragic humor here
Trump is calling for a ceasefire because he wants to hold elections in Ukraine and install a man more loyal to Washington as president than the out-of-control Zelensky.
No, a one month ceasefire is not remotely enough time to organize them. And in any event, Zelensky says martial law (which is his excuse for not having elections) remains in place till the war is over.
And this is Ukraine, the most fabulously corrupt colorably advanced country in the world. No one there is loyal, or even stays bought for very long.
I’ve mentioned before that a local on the main road exiting Nottm near me flies various flags. These went from ones that might make you think they’re English nationalists to realising they genuinely do fly any old thing (The Nottingham Robin Hood flag through to My Little Pony ones). So no biggie.
Trouble is the house directly opposite is clearly VERY political and has risen to some challenge (if there even was one). Today for first time they flew Ukrainian flag. This will either elicit “meh” or make more local progressive educated people decide Starmer is deranged. Interesting times.
Send them some controversial flags, to see how far they would go.
Tempting! But knowing the typical driver round here I am just waiting for an “accidental” crash which knocks down the flagpole since it is easily accessible from the main road without risking harm to innocent people.
When my parents bought their house in mid 1990s this road was practically motorway with cars driving 55mph+. Now there is a sensor and LED sign which tells you your speed and if over 30mph tells you to slow down. Most people do slow down. Trouble is there is no associated speed camera/CCTV, or one that is actually working. Regular drivers know this.
For a truly delusional European take, take look at this from a fellow at CEPA (Center for European Policy Analysis):
“A scenario:
-Russia accepts ceasefire
-Russia then breaks it and blames Ukraine
-Trump sides with Russia, accuses Ukraine of killing his ‘peace plan’ and stops aid again, this time for good
Europe better prepare for this scenario.”
Deeply delusional and unserious people like this person are shaping European policies and public perceptions. I may have to immigrate again.
I’ll apologize in advance if I’ve missed the news, but did Ukraine ever sign a minerals deal? Or did Trump just restore arms and intel without the concession Zelensky said he was willing to make before the Oval Office blowup?
Nope. And it has fallen out of the news rather quickly, too.
They have not yet but promised in the joint statement that they would. Zelensky was in Jeddah so he could have, which suggests the terms are still in play.
Simplicius in the piece to which I linked in the post, claims that the Odessa port operations were already given to the UK as part of that crazy 100 year deal Starmer signed, and perhaps mineral rights too. I am not sure that is legally binding if not approved by the Rada (Revenant corrected me on the UK end, the PM can enter into treaties, including with secret provisions, w/o Parliamentary approval).
If Simplicius is right…..when does the UK clear its throat? This could be fun.
> If Simplicius is right…..when does the UK clear its throat? This could be fun.
Perhaps the point was to have something to swap with DJT in exchange for relief from anticipated sanctions on UK exports.
I thought Putin said last year that if Ukraine withdraws all forces from the four disputed oblasts, repeals laws against use of the Russian language, and renounces any further plans to join NATO, then Russia could begin discussions on a ceasefire and other de-escalatory moves. So we’re not even at the stage where Russia has any reason to talk about a ceasefire, much less implement one. It sounds like Trump has muffed his chance to get extricated from this mess and write it off as a senile Biden obsession. The path of wisdom forsaken.
I was quiet when Trump said he wants to end the war quickly, and then he actually tried to do it! But one cannot simply end the war quickly, without giving Russia everything they want. And that is going to be a very difficult sell. The West cannot easily swallow such a loss and humiliation.
I think the true scale of the defeat has still not set in yet.
He actually tried to do it, in a way Wrestlemania competitors actually try to punch each other. Crowd cheers anyway.
Mr Putin was showing himself at an Army command post today in army clothes on a briefing tour with General Gerasimov. He publicly speculated on the establishment of a buffer zone in the Sumy region to stop attacks on the Kursk region. Looks like they intend to follow up the fleeing Ukrainian troops for either 40 km for relief from artillery or 70 km to the nearest logistic hubs.
Hardly the actions of someone needing a breather. The main risk will be the intentions of Kellog to pressure Russia, especially bad is the idea of setting up naval inspection groups at sea trade chokepoints for the suppression of dark oil trade, that will be a real dilemma for Russia.
Agreed – this immediately struck me as an own goal by the US and a coup for Ukraine.
You didn’t mention the media coverage, which I found to be more than usually misleading. The original headline, in big letters, was ‘US and Ukraine agree ceasefire deal’ or something similar. Not until the body of the article do you find that Russia not only hadn’t agreed but wasn’t even part of the talks.
Then a little while later, we got ‘Russia launches major attack on Ukraine hours after ceasefire agreed’ which was even more misleading, verging on dishonest. Why position these two unrelated facts next to each other? Russia wasn’t party to the talks and hadn’t agreed to anything. This does get a note, much later in the article, but the clear intent of the headline was to give the impression that Russia had breached an agreement of some kind, which was not at all the case.
Trump, The Don, must win every time. That is not possible here. Sugzwang?
Trumpet’s got this worked out both ways:
– If Putin were to acquiesce to his demands, he’ll get to claim a victory.
– If it’s the other way around, it won’t be long before he floats the idea of having American boots on the ground in Ukraine. The market is going to tank, and Nancy Pelosi’s portfolio will go up in flames, and in the end he’ll get to pick up some bargain assets.
Fifth dimensional chess at its finest. Forget Sun Tzu, Trumpet’s Art of Maskirovska will be the one that will last through the ages.
We are not doing “boots on the ground” in Ukraine. We don’t have enough. This = war with Russia, and every war game of a direct war with Russia leads to nuclear war. Trump seems genuinely afraid of that.
It would take 9 months to organize the logistics. See the Gulf War. By then, there will be no Ukraine.
What gives? LBJ, Nixon and Ford along with Doctor Kissinger all fast-tracked Vietnam peace deal. No better photo op then the fall of Saigon with the helicopters on the rooftops.
Lockstep messaging from multiple heads-of-state is always an ominous sign.
I recall that last month, J.D. Vance was quoted as saying the U.S. would consider sending in the troops if Russia “failed to negotiate in good faith.” At the time I took it for posturing to “rattle the Russkies.” Perhaps it’s simply the direction of travel.
It is becoming more and more apparent that his top priority is dominating any interaction, no matter whether that advances any long term aim. Trump and his allies derived pleasure from beating up on Zelensky during and after the White House row.
. . . lovely to think the most powerful country in the world has a head of state who acts like an antisocial middle school student off his ADHD meds. When you have strategy, use strategy, when you have tactics, use tactics, when you don’t have strategy or tactics, I guess you just piss on the living room floor so long as someone else has to come along and clean it up after you.
You just piss on the living room floor, while yelling that you’ve got the biggest schlong in town.
I thought Trump might have the brain cells to work out that he should walk away from the Ukraine. Just say that it is not his was but Joe Biden’s war. But this 30-day ceasefire “deal” is just bizarre. I have no idea how many times the Russians have said no ceasefires or freezes unless they get something for it and the losing side doesn’t get a break to reload. But here, Trump seems to have listened to the Ukraine, the UK and France to come up with – a ceasefire deal. And as he is announcing it, he restarts pumping weapons, money and intelligence back into the Ukraine once more meaning a 30 day ceasefire gives the Ukraine everything that it could ask for and derails the Russian offensive. It also opens up in that 30 day window other British/EU ideas like a no fly-zone, no Russian attacks at sea and even NATO, err, European boots on the ground. You might as well call this idea mini-Minsk 3 and is insulting to Russia.
So why did Trump do it? I can only thing that the guy has a deep need to dominate any negotiation and be the one deciding terms and conditions as Yves has noted. That he is seeking to dominate the Russians to the point where he has control of the strategic direction of this war by the Russians themselves. But if he thought that this would work, I really do doubt it as it has shown the Russians that he has not listened to them at all but has only negotiated with the Ukraine and western nations among themselves to come up with this dead on arrival idea to present to the Russians – just like with that Swiss summit. The Russians should make a counter offer which they have made before – that the Ukraine totally abandons all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kurk and Kherson Oblasts and then they will get their ceasefire. And as that would mean that the Ukrainians would have to abandon their battle lines as well as places like the city of Zaporizhzhia they will refuse, that would be OK. The Ukraine has never kept their end of any deals of ceasefires in the past anymore than the Israelis have. Trump is in the situation where he is trying to negotiate a deal in zero-trust conditions and with this ceasefire plan, has confirmed to the Russians that the US cannot be trusted either or is even a serious player. I guess that we will see what Putin comes back with but the guy should simply reply ‘Nuts!’ Specifically hazel nuts which come from hazel trees which translates as – Oreshnik.
re: Daniel Davis as Gabbard´s deputy?
via (CIA-asset) Michael Isikoff:
“Two intelligence community sources told SpyTalk they were stunned to learn in recent days that retired Army Lt. Col. Daniel Davis, a senior fellow with Defense Priorities, the Koch-funded think tank that advocates a diminished U.S. presence overseas, was Gabbard’s pick to serve as Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Mission Integration, a position that would put him in charge of intelligence briefings for President Trump.
No formal announcement has been made of his selection, which does not require Senate confirmation, and a spokesman for the Office of Director of National Intelligence said he had “no guidance” to offer on Davis. Asked for comment via his LinkedIn page, Davis responded that there had been “no official announcement on whomever the president has chosen for that position, so until that happens, I couldn’t offer any opinions. :-).””
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/daniel-davis/
Another Lobby victim apparently. On Israel Trump is starting to seem remarkably similar to our former governor Nikki Haley. Of course Trump’s nickname for his onetime employee Haley was “Birdbrain.”
True Haley did want to bomb Iran back to the stone age whereas Trump hasn’t gone there–yet.
Thanks!
Just read an interesting commentary by Ian Welsh (Canadian):
Trump is the Best President of My Life Unless You’re American
https://www.ianwelsh.net/trump-is-the-best-president-of-my-life-unless-youre-american/
Part of what makes Yves’ perspectives on this question so outstanding is that she can generally be counted on to devote a least some attention to the Russian perspective on these matters. I think by now the Russians will have a pretty well developed psychological profile of Trump, in the wider context of D.C. and world politics.
One might suspect that the Russians are prepared to offer at least some help and some cover to Trump to the extent that they might hope he succeeds in following through on improving relations with Russia, and, at the same time, assist him in various ways insofar as his ultimate failure may accomplish certain things in ways Moscow could not have counted on seeing so quickly without him–corrosive effects on NATO, damage to the legitimacy of Western rulership over the world, to narrative of European values, an accelerated deindustrialization of Europe, erosion of US as financial safe haven, class war, etc.
OMG this is a delicious opening salvo:
“Every day, I become more grateful for the election of Donald Trump. All praise. Millions and millions of people have worked to destroy the American empire, and all of them failed. Donald is succeeding, speeding the process by about a decade, I’d guess.”
LOL
By that reckoning, we have to also thank Joe Biden and Antony Blinken. They got the ball rollin’ for sure. Obama copped out on going all in on Ukraine. Not #genocideJoe! Getting a prosecutor fired while he was working with RapRock™ wasn’t enough!
> One might suspect that the Russians are prepared to offer at least some help and some cover to Trump to the extent that they might hope he succeeds in following through on improving relations with Russia
Disagree with this part. Never again after #MerkelMinskMalfeasance.
> at the same time, assist him in various ways insofar as his ultimate failure may accomplish certain things in ways Moscow could not have counted on seeing so quickly without him
Getting Z out via domestic means in Ukraine is, I believe, “certain things” …
When the pipeline attack details came out yesterday, I chuckled to myself thinking there are probably other (metaphorical) pipelines being explored as well. Oh to be a cleaning lady!
Thanks for Welsh but frankly I get the impression he doesn´t understand it´s the other way around: US will suck the rest of blood out of Europe. And only then will they abandon what is the corpse.
So either way (Dems/GOP) the outcome is horrible for us in Europe. In fact the US implosion might be delayed now in some twisted way. I don´t know. May be I´m wrong. But Europe is definitely screwed.
In fact your own final paragraph sounds more accurate although I do not know how much Russians do care about US at all. Of course they apparently did resume some diplomatic exchange re-manning their embassy in D.C. etc.
Somebody tell Ian that the same bankstas are still in charge all over the globe.
Also, apparently Mr. Welsh hasn’t heard of “too big to fail”? We haven’t tested it yet on an entire country, but the concept seems designed to scale.
May be there is way too much emphasis on the so-called “psychological profiles”.
What does that even mean?
The West btw is doing just that very thing re: Putin.
Mearsheimer correctly, as I believe, stresses that some “psychological profile” of Mr. P (whatever that profile might state) is no grounds for any action in the real world.
Or to quote Noam Chomsky´s ironic comment: Until we can look into peoples´ heads this is no proper way, it´s pure illusion and projection. (And even if we could it would not be appropriate.)
If Pentagon has briefed Team Trump about the significance of Oreshnik and all the other systems, if they face the fact that US spends 12 times Russia does for a new SSBN, that Russian air-to-air missiles outperform US counterparts, if US officers admit that US armed forces are not fit for today´s wars, and what all that means for strategic assessments – what does it matter what a Trump might or might not feel in the morning.
Trump will know that material realities cannot be altered by will. Even the Nazis knew this.
The fact that Nazis failed in their war goals was mostly due to inadequate decisions, due to lack of understanding, insight and intelligence.
They never learned of “Ultra” e.g., they never understood the scale of Soviet military planning, they however were aware that US entering the war would be a serious problem. Which in fact was a very real and not at all psychologically grounded reasoning for Germany pushing for total victory on the continent. And after that be prepared for what would be war against the US.
You can assess the German performance at large very well when looking into the failure of German nuclear “project” in small.
There was arrogance (=psychological profile). But eventually the decision to not engage into WMD research further was due to bad physics and strain on the economy.
All measureable data-based decisions. And not bad mood aka psychology.
Good insight. I think the emphasis on psychological profiles is just another name for the “Great Man Theory of History”. Simplicius wrote: “I’ve lost faith in the good faith of the Trump negotiating team.” this is another way of saying that words have no content. I remembered Lenin predicting in the autumn of 1916 giving a public lecture, residing in Switzerland, that he did not think or believe there would any substantial change in Russia in his lifetime. And Galbraith’s quip that economists exist to make astrologers look good. I seem to recall that Hemingway was asked what it felt like to go bankrupt: well, he said, it happens very slowly and then very quickly.
Emphasis on psychological profiles is just repacked astrology mumbo jumbo (sans the stars). Nancy Reagan would love it.
AG and Ginger Goodwin make solid critiques of the ‘psychological profile’ approach. Certainly, people like Brian Berletic argue compellingly that there is a continuity of agenda across foreign policy administrations. Further, I think one could argue, in opposition to the great man theory of history, that it is the underlying conditions–material, industrial, financial, societal, military–that fundamentally shape and even dictate the overall direction of travel.
That said, Russian decision making will no doubt have been informed by the recognition that the current President is a narcissistic know-nothing flim flam man and the previous president was an angry dotard slipping ever further into dementia, and that the West seems increasingly to be fronted by the grandchildren of the enemies of the USSR / Russia, many of whom have direct family / ethnic connections to Nazism.
If anything, Trump may yet prove to have been a peerless exemplar of the Big Man theory of historical agency–driving or greatly accelerating, in his thrashing about, system turbulence that potentially triggers sweeping phase changes.
Conceivably, Russia, even trusting no individual to be able to turn the US away from its universal supremacism, and even assuming that the Trump Admin is an agreement-incapable one-off, may be proceeding on the basis that a certain level of accommodation of Trump produces short term effects–the end of Western “unity” or any residual perception of the US as a force for good, for example–that will be difficult to reverse.
Analyst Mark Sleboda has called Trump a chaos bomb. And Russia may see him as greatly accelerating the entropy in the Western imperial oligarchies.
I like putting psychological profiling of politicians and Great-Man-Theory-of-History-think together. Not being a friend of either I hadn´t thought of that. Of course the question will remain why does history happen the way it does. Ever seen that Sci-fi thingy DEVS? (its a bit frail and drab sometimes but interesting in carrying an idea through to the end.)
Some of the recently occupied areas of Kursk reportedly show serious crimes against civilians, and it is likely that this will be a subject of some of the upcoming high-level US-Russia discussions. Russia recently announced that those captured in Kursk would be prosecuted as terrorists. It may be that in addition to the conditions already requested by Russia to begin talks on a deescalation, the surrender of certain officers will become a condition. Maybe also the complete cessation of all foreign arms deliveries, which would be the ultimate poison pill.
This is a very good point. And this is a way to spike negotiations, since the US will be very loath to include in negotiations that Ukraine engaged in war crimes….on the off chance that “What about ‘no’ don’t you understand?” re a ceasefire does not take.
Do you have an idea where to get info on the ongoing collection of Ukrainian war crimes by Russian authorities. In Germany this extremely important topic is virtually non-existent.
At least early on, the Russians were doing what they could to prevent the broader circulation of snuff videos by Ukrainians of Russian prisoners. Awful brutal material. They did not want to inflame Russian opinion. This was when they still viewed the war as a fraternal conflict. So there is not any public repository in Russia.
I read and listen. I have watched almost no videos about the war.
One, for the violence.
Two, as soon as you have cuts within the video and you still are on the same location it is a prepared and edited piece. i.e. it´s authored.
E.g. if you see tanks coming to the camera and then the same footage cuts to show the same tanks driving away you have a directoral decison and a set up.
When I first saw videos about people being dragged off the streets in Ukraine I had serious doubts because various parts of footage, filmed a different locations showed the same people wearing the same clothes. For me that was a giant red flag. Later the footage changed and piled up. but I needed time to trust it.
I don´t know the exact rules but are there any court trials which allow video footage? Not in Germany I believe.
From the epistemic POV filmed material cannot be unfiltered and objective reality/truth.
Russian lawmakers and prosecuters will have to come out with their material at some point, I hope.
Videos can be easily faked, words even more so.
the Ukraine side is dug in because its government is in the control of hard-core Banderites.
Banderists run the country since the putsch of February 2014, but they are just the tool of Germany, Poland, ie. the EU, UK and USA. Banderists were set in motion sometime around 2005.
The Ukraine is dug in because “West” wants it.
this plan for Trump as master-dealmaker going mano-a-mano with Putin and emerging victorious, or at least with a reasonably-face-saving agreement, has gone pear-shaped. And we have to say that we have been telling you so for quite a while.
well, probably everyone who has been following the evolution of policies USA side and Russian side, was also not believing what for few days the establishment’s press wanted people to believe.
what is plausible is in fact that USA transfers the issue to EU, a EU that is confident it will knock down Russia. The comm´ op’ has been the excuse for EU to announce a 800 billions for military and Germany 500 billions.
—-
the drone swarm attack on Moskva region was a really bad idea.
Not many people seem to understand that Russians do war on the ground with infantry, artillery, because they want to reintegrate former Russian land with some inhabitants on it, and most possible infrastructure basics. Donbas is a dense web of industrial towns and cities that were fortified by NATO since 2015. So it’s slow work to progress on the ground.
If they didn’t care about the places they just would wipe everything with non-nuclear massive destruction.
Kiev itself is an ancient Rurikid city, It became the 2nd capital after Novgorod when Vladimir 1st decided to bring the kingdom closer to Roman Empire ie. Constantinople, and this is where christening was decided. It’s an old Russian historical and sacred city. Otherwise they could turn it to trash like Gaza.
But Galicia, ie. Banderists realm (Lwow, Tarnopol, Ivano-Frankovsk former Polish Stanislawow) was never Russia. And this is where the Banderist poison is sourced.
Lot of regular Russians would like to have these cities turned Germania Anno Zero.
The Russians have been cataloguing atrocities committed by the extremists attacking Kursk and were ready to deploy it at the negotiations. Obviously the saw that negotiations would be a trap and have prepared a counter-move such as asking nicely for Budanov’s head on a plate.
>”asking nicely for Budanov’s head on a plate.”
They did?
Wonder what the reaction was in the room then…
I didn’t pay much attention to the peace negotiations between allies. It’s bizarre that allies would need a refereed peace conference in a neutral location. Almost sounds like the US considers them an adversary. The real event was Ukraine’s withdrawal from its Kursk front. The only principle involved for Trump is that he doesn’t want to pay for this war.
Since he has no leverage to apply to Russia, resuming aid to Ukraine is the only thing he can do as well as the main thing he doesn’t want to do. Trump presumably has the ability to turn it off again.
Ukraine and Europe don’t have the money and resources to do more that hold off for a few months. Russia always called this a US proxy war and in the past said they really need to settle this with the US. This doesn’t need to be done in conventional order. I see the primary issues as 1. The funding. 2. The battlefield. With the feelings of Ukraine and Europe not making a lot of difference other than their impact on 1 and 2.
It boils down to the power and motivation of Trump. If he is hopeless…then this project will stall. But he will have to listen to this and see the money flow to this for 45 months unless he does something. The kayfab of the last couple of weeks given the Europeans and Zelensky an opportunity to embarrass themselves.
They needed a peace conference in a suit-neutral location. If hosts wear sheets, Zelenski won’t stick out in his pyjamas.
And it binds the Saudis to the US public relations wise – so trustworthy, selfless and peace loving. Can’t everyone just get along? Think golf, forget about bone saws. Oh, and about help for Gaza? … it’s coming, you just have to believe.
Trump’s ability to send aid to Ukraine will increasingly be constrained by the US budget deficit and mounting interest burden.
It’s also unclear if there is any political will to send anything after the pre-existing $4B tranche from back in the last Biden administration runs out (and it likely runs out real soon, as that number was as of Jan. 20.)
Perhaps Trump could get Mike Johnson to roll like a pig and pass something, but he’d likely need a lot of democratic votes as the Freedom caucus would say “no way.” That would create more political problems for Trump, who ran on being different.
Thanks for the article! Don’t have much to add other than this is pretty insane to watch.
Very informative:
Ray McGovern & John Helmer: Is Trump Getting Putin All Wrong?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gr84HAmx_tY
great, thanks
This interview I would recommend to everyone additionally to Yves, Simplicius and Lavrov as mentioned above.
I have one doubtful question however – with a potential DMZ in Western UKR as discussed by Helmer – how are the RUs going to have any control over Eastern Europe not being turned into an Iron Wall containing new battering rams pumped up with arms and WMDs.
Even if Ukraine were to be destroyed completely. That wouldn´t matter for Europe the slightest.
The long-term arrangement that Putin had pleaded for in 2021 was the only serious concept to secure peace in Europe. If ever we will get a chance for that again it will be long after it matters any more. Because by then the EU is second or third rate. This all is very very sad.
Helmer has been discussing that DMZ idea for over a year. It was first mentioned in a fashion by Lavrov, who said if you keep hitting us (now including the oblasts incorporated into Russia), we’ll need to secure our safety via a distance at least that wide. I have not heard Russian official return to that notion since then. Helmer does purport to have very good contacts on the General Staff, but the fact that that idea does not seem to have been raised again makes me doubt that it is a front burner solution. Marat Khairullin about a week ago had an outline of what the Russians are allegedly saying they will accept and it does not feature a DMZ. It does include a lot of presence in what would be rump Ukraine.
That Russia has the power to be the decider within the territories that, say, voted for Yanukovich before 2014, points up the fact that the agency that the West still retains lies more with the post-conflict settlement arrangements.
Even an overwhelming military victory leaves Russia having to contend with the other elements of the 2019 Rand Corporation plan describing the ‘unbalancing’ of Russia–terrorism/sabotage, information operations, cyber warfare, destabilization of Russia’s near abroad (Moldova, Romania, Hungary, Armenia, Georgia). Indeed, Ukraine has proven that having NATO proxies *outside* NATO has made it possible to attack Russia kinetically through a non-NATO cat’s paw. Moldova seems likely to be next.
Are there any non-military moves–concessions even–that Russia could make to back the West off? Can, at least, a settlement yield formal recognition of the new Russian territories? A pull-back / drawdown of US forces from Russia’s periphery? A re-establishment of something like the INF? One suspects not, but we might wonder if there are attempts that Russia thinks worth making.
As with Helmer one cannot judge 100% the quality of Andrei Martyanov´s RU sources but it does appear they are more substantial than in Helmer´s case. Reading Martyanov´s books bolsters my trust in his military verdicts. If such issues as INF and diplomacy are covered by that at all is difficult to say. But he claims no arms control talks will take place even less reductions talks unless the US seriously offers anything of value which they hardly can at least as weapons systems are concerned because Russian High Command appears as confident as ever over Russian superiority. One offer could be major rollback of NATO missile installations, and security guarantees for the Baltic Sea route, for Kaliningrad and the Black Sea (the “underbelly” as RAND-think wants it at least). None of which the US will offer (and only over the EU Commission´s dead body). The maximum would be an agreement for peace along Russian demands end of 2025 when AFU is truly about to collapse – ?. Martyanov – again – quoted RU MoD that SMO is planned to reach goals end of 2025. And then demands will be harsher than now. We will see…
But fact is of course: We have three superpowers, RU, CHINA and the US. And they will act based on that.
Unless the Baltic states, Finland, and Sweden are expelled from NATO, I doubt a satsfactory security guarantees to Russia can be given. Admitting the Baltics ensured that a conflict with Russia will likely take place, even without Georgia or Ukraine blowing up. Adding Sweden and Finand made it a certainty.
Europe will have to undergo further regime change to become agreement capable, but the massive deindustrialization, and Russia’s energy choke chain will minimize their military threat.
p.s. The next battleground à la Romania will be Hungary in 2026. And I would not be surprised if EU manages to get their man Peter Magyar into office. He did start as the younger version of Orban. I assume he has been groomed properly by some EU-officials. And so to prevent Eastern Europe getting into war with Russia only popular resistance will remain. Bumpy times ahead. May be NC wants to risk a post as glance into the crystal ball re: NATO´s official 2030 narrative of Europe potentially at war. I would add a few years so lets say mid 2030s.
Some German blog reader pointed out that European Central Bank was giving up its resistance to using the $300B from Russian and that Michael Hartnett advised his customers to sell German and English state bonds now.
Not sure I would rely on that account. Needs to be confirmed by more authoritative venues. Not that hard to leak to bona fide media.
Proponents of a scheme often make claims as if they are hearing things from leakers, which may actually be from internal sources who are still in the minority, to create the impression of movement and pressure the institution.
Putin plays a good hand at cards and let’s hope he is on form because we are closer to ww3 as a result of what Rubio has just proposed than ever. I expect Putin to come back and say that we very much want a permenant cease fire but there are preconditions for it. And then really beef things up…..
Helmer has it that Powell, Starmer’s NSA, drafted the Ukrainian cease fire proposal for their delegation to take to the meeting in Jeddah. Seems to have been adopted as drafted, they must have spent the rest of the time discussing the weather.
Charades anyone?
The origins of the Ukrainian War is relevant to the intro to the 3/13 linked article about the arrest of Philippine president Duerte by the ICC. It notes that the Philippines has chosen to align with the U.S. with basing and armament directed towards an anticipated war with China. Ukrainian NATO membership and arming were direct causes of the current war. The U.S. decision to abandon especially nuclear arms controls were a direct stimulus of Russia to embark on and for now win an arms race with hypersonic missiles to defeat any U.S. fantasies about developing a first strike capacity. China perhaps in response to our undisguised belligerence is arming both in nuclear and conventional arms. I recommend Joseph Malalo’s book Cry Havoc: How the Arms Race Drove the World to War 1931-1941. As I recall the book it begins in Asia with Japan. We need to look for ways to prevent war including limitations on armaments.
I’m a new arrival to this blog. Very interesting so far, and I appreciate the different viewpoint than I’m used to.
I’m genuinely puzzled. From my (albit limited) understanding, Ukraine was invaded. And yet, there’s considerable commentary which seems to suggest that the war is one in which Russia was wronged, that the west wishes to perpetuate, that NATO is out to get Russia, etc.
From my reading of historical events, Russia has traditionally regarded eastern Europe as it’s sphere and sought to bring them under their control (the Baltics, Belorussia, Ukraine). To me, NATO expansion wasn’t necessarily the further western countries wanting to push east, but eastern Europe wanting to be part of a security umbrella that might prevent the sort of domination they were subjected to post-WWII.
I scratch my head when it seems as though the Ukrainians have no agency or say in all of this, that it’s impossible that they might request membership and protection on their own accord like the Baltic nations and others have.
Or so that’s what my belief has been. So my question to Yves and others who are so informed, what is the opposing narrative? Did the west really *wrong* Russia? What right do they have to invade or dominate other countries? Or is there really some justification I’m missing? Is there some reason *why* we shouldn’t be backing Ukraine to the hilt?
I’d like to clarify that I’m asking this in good faith and not to spark a flame war. I’m genuinely interested in the opposing argument. Thanks!
Jeffrey Sachs speaking at the EU Parliament a few weeks ago is a good place to start if you’re looking for the relevant history. He has been personally involved with this for 30+ years now – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4c-YRPXDoM
Thank you!
There are no flame wars here.
It seems that you are at a beginning of a very long road that you just might not want to take, so this video is as good of a start as any:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToKcmnrE5oY
John Mearsheimer 2015 foresight (youtube).
Aaron Maté 2024 hindsight.
I think it is very useful to point out that literally less than 24 hours after the US 30-day ceasefire “proposal” – I do not think it has yet been formally presented to Moscow, hence the quotes – Putin, very, very uncharacteristically, donned a military field uniform, rolled down to the regional HQ in Kursk (Gerasimov was already there), and made a 5-minute on-camera statement, one of the two salient points of which is that he “strongly suggested” the military considers establishing a buffer zone around Russian borders after finishing clearing out the Kursk region. If that isn’t a signal to the Americans about any ceasefires, I do not know what is.
Though of course, Moscow will be happy to receive any American delegation and proposal, and discuss very thoughtfully and politely why it is simply not possible to implement in its current form. And then tell all the other BRICS countries about it.
His second salient point, by the way, was to stress that any Ukrainians captured in the Kursk region were not actually POWs, but rather “terrorists”, i.e. persons who have violated Russia’s criminal anti-terrorism statutes. I am guessing the timing of this is also not coincidental, since up to this point the 550 or so Ukrainians captured pre-“Operation Stream” – that’s the official name for sending 600 guys through that pipeline, and boy are there some fascinating videos being shown on Russian TV about this – WERE, with a few exceptions, treated as POWs in every respect, including as possible candidates for being exchanged. Now – not.
One thing is crystal clear – nobody is listening to the Russians. It’s the same old story, the west negotiating with the west, ignoring the Russians and then acting surprised when their ‘terms’ are rejected.
Until this changes, there will be no ceasefire, no peace and no change. Putin and his team have consistently repeated the conditions, yet few in the west seem willing to take them seriously.
Trump, for all of his bragging, is a terrible dealmaker.
Those that are good at somethig do not need to brag about being good at something. In other words, if you need to go around telling everyone that you are beautiful/strong/smart/etc, then you are not.