Most of you by now have heard of the epic row in the Oval Office on Friday, with Trump and Vance becoming increasingly heated over Zelensky refusal to fall in line with Administration plans, from saying he needed security guarantees in order to sign the Ukraine “minerals deal” to disagreeing with the Trump position that negotiating with Putin to end the war was a good idea, to even disputing Trump’s repeated claim that the US had spent more on Ukraine than the EU had (the charts in this Financial Times article support Zelensky’s claims).
For a quick review, Matt Taibbi has a transcript of the key ten minutes of the press conference; you can find the full fifty minute video here.
Some contend that if Zelensky had handled himself better, the simmering conflict between Trump and Zelensky would not have led to this apparent fatal rupture. I beg to differ.
The yelling match reflected irreconcilable positions on what each side regarded as core issues. Thought experiment: if Zelensky were to grovel to Trump and say he was now willing to sign the minerals pact, do you think Trump would say no? He’d relish in his power play having gotten Zelensky to acknowledge Trump as the big dog and making a visible concession (admittedly, Trump would ask Zelensky for more, as in a commitment to negotiate with Russia, which Zelensky would find a way to renege on in due course). Even if Trump is saying otherwise now, he holds no fixed stances. But the bigger point is that it is Zelensky that would not proceed with the minerals pact and certainly would not cooperate with negotiations with Russia. So what could happen in an alternate universe is moot.
I also have difficulty with the claim that Trump and Vance intended to force this rupture. They were muscling, yesiree bob, to get Zelensky to execute the minerals pact. Let us not forget what had already transpired: Zelensky had offered Ukraines’s wealth, first to the Biden Administration, later to Trump and in his Victory Plan, in return for security guarantees. Trump then tried to outrageously retrade the offer by insisting that the purported $350 billion the US had spent on Ukraine (the Wall Street Journal, among others, challenges this claim) should be repaid, when that support was never in the form of loans. Should Taiwan worry about similarly getting a payment demand from Trump? And let us not forget that the US put up Ukraine to this fight via helping arm and train its forces during the Minsk and Minsk 2 duplicities and having Boris Johnson act as our emissary (confirmed later by Samantha Power in her book) to scupper the Istanbul peace deal…with US and NATO and NATO member state leaders promising with one voice that we’d support Ukraine for as long as it took?
In other words, even though Zelensky was never a sympathetic or admirable character (if you were paying attention), Western behavior in this conflict has been reprehensible.
If you review the past week or so of news, it shows clearly that Zelensky was not keen about going to Washington. Alexander Mercouris argues, and it’s certainly plausible, that the desperate and deluded Macron-Starmer tag team had convinced themselves that they could get Trump to guarantee the security of UK and French “reassurance” forces, even though Russia is maintaining no way, no how will they tolerate any NATO (or other) forces in Ukraine ex the approval of the UN Security Council, where Russia has a veto. The scheme was then after getting these commitments from Trump, Zelensky would firm up the arrangement via accepting the minerals pact. Boris Johnson was promoting it as providing de facto security to Ukraine via increased presence; some have speculated that the former Prime Minister also talked to Zelensky, but I have yet to see any evidence.
However, despite his reluctance, Zelensky decided to make the trip, making clear that his agreeing to the minerals pact was not a given. He said he needed to hear what Trump had to say about security guarantees. So Zelensky has not budged from his original position, although he might have been willing to accept verbal assurances (as if those were credible from the US in light of “not one inch further east” and the aforementioned support of Ukraine “for as long as it takes”). But given the parlous state of Ukraine and Zelensky’s rule, any confidence-builder might be adequate.
There are similarly rumors that the disastrous meeting was in part due to bad American advice to Zelensky:
Blinken, Rice, Nuland, and Vindman conference call with Zelenskyy on the flight to DC advising him to "stand strong" and "be tough" and "don't let Trump bully you"
seems to have backfired 😂😂😂— Peachy Keenan (@KeenanPeachy) February 28, 2025
Regardless, if you look at the transcript, Trump and Vance resorted to the highly irregular device of having a private discussion and then calling the press in for a press conference. Trump recently used the same trick with the King Abdullah of Jordan. The King had apparently not been told of the press conference plan, where Trump told reporters that the King had agreed to his Gaza ethnic cleansing plan and would be taking in Palestinians. Abdullah did not confront Trump but as soon as he could, issued firm denials of any such consent.
Trump in his opening remarks, in which Trump talks up both the minerals deal and his talks with Putin, tells Zelensky that “It’s something that you want and that he wants” and that Zelensky will be joining him and others in a lunch meeting and then will sign the minerals pact. So consistent with widespread expectations before the meeting, Trump was prepared to have Zelensky sign on.
Zelensky immediately focused on the outtrade:
ZELENSKY: Thank you so much, Mr. President. Thank you for invitation. And really I hope that this document, first document will be first step to real security guarantees for Ukraine, our people, our children. I really count on it. And of course we count that America will not stop support. Really for us, it’s very important to support and to continue it. I want to discuss it with details for them during our conversation and of course the infrastructure or security guarantees.
The wheels come off as Zelensky also immediately pushes back on the idea that Putin can be trusted even as Trump doubles down, and also gets into a spat over Trump’s insistence that the US provided more support than Europe. As Taibbi noted:
“25 times [Putin’s] broken cease fire,” Zelensky said.
“He never broke to me,” snapped Trump, realizing the meeting had moved into deeper water.
From there it was obvious the two sides had fundamentally different understandings. Trump and Vance clearly saw the minerals deal as a necessary precursor to making a security deal with Putin. Zelensky meanwhile began talking as if he intended to keep fighting with or without American support. One can call that brave, but once Trump and Vance realized they’d invited a throng of international media to have Zelensky call them out on their home ice, the mood turned ugly fast.
But remember, even though this getting this ugly in public was clearly not necessary, a crack-up of some sort seemed inevitable. As Simplicius pointed out:
Firstly, let’s again mention the epistemic three-way impasse that has recently surfaced, which we spoke about last time: Ukraine doesn’t want diplomacy without a security guarantee; US wants a ceasefire before major deals with Russia; Russia doesn’t want a ceasefire without its own security guarantees. Despite what went on today, Trump only yesterday appeared to demonstrate his unrealistic understanding concerning the war. He stated in a press conference not only that he would try to get Ukraine as much of its land back as possible, but—and this is the big one—that he thinks Ukraine might be able to get some of its coastline back:
Granted, he may just be egging the press on, and putting on appearances for the sake of playing the peacemaker. Think about it: what coastline could Ukraine possibly get back? The Azov Sea, which would necessitate returning Mariupol or Melitopol, parts of Kherson and Zaporozhye? Or does he actually think Russia could give back Crimea itself?….
And for that matter, we absolutely must include these next essential exhibits into the evidence. Just yesterday, Lavrov again decisively put the final word on the matter of ceasefires when he explained that there will absolutely be no ceasefires “along the current contact line”
I’m inclined to think that the bizarre Trump mention of retaking Ukraine coast was to throw a bone to Zelensky. But that throwaway would have been deeply alarming to the already distrustful Russians.
Confirming Simplicius, progress in the US-Russia talks is slow. The expert had an over 6 hour second meeting in Riyadh. From the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs website:
In accordance with the instructions from the foreign policy leadership of both countries, the parties meticulously explored avenues to overcome numerous irritants inherited from previous US administrations. Joint measures were agreed upon to ensure the unfettered mutual financing of Russian and US diplomatic missions’ operations and to establish appropriate conditions for diplomats to fulfil their official duties.
The consultations also addressed issues related to Russian diplomatic properties in the United States, with a particular focus on the restitution of six premises unlawfully seized between 2016 and 2018. The necessity of achieving tangible outcomes to foster conditions conducive to improving bilateral relations, in the interests of both nations, was underscored. In particular, the American side was encouraged to consider the restoration of direct air service between the two countries.
So the only addition to the agenda was restoring flights between Russia and the US. In other words, the bigger issues have yet to even be tabled, let alone a process for considering them to be devised.
What happens now? One popular point of view is that Zelensky needs to quit sooner rather than later. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson has found a new high register in her denunciation of Zelensky in the wake of his White House debacle. For instance:
With his outrageously rude behaviour during his stay in Washington, Zelensky re-affirmed his status of the most dangerous threat to the international community as an irresponsible figure that can stir up a big war. It must be clear to everyone that this kind of attacks coming from a terrorist leader are quite unambiguous.
This cynical individual will stoop to anything in pursuit of his goals and is obsessed with preserving the power he has usurped. This is why he has destroyed the opposition, built a totalitarian state and is ruthlessly sending millions of his fellow citizens to their deaths. Under the increasingly deteriorating political conditions, this figure is unable to show a sense of responsibility and is therefore obsessed with continuing the war and rejects peace, which means death to him.
Unprecedented in the history of international politics and diplomacy, a dressing down given to Zelensky by the US president in the White House is also indicative of the political weakness and extreme moral degradation of the European leaders who continue to support the maniac leader of the Nazi regime who has lost touch with reality.
But I am not sure how feasible it is for Zelensky to make a clean exit even if he wanted to. Remember that he got over 70% of the vote in 2019 and ran on a platform of normalizing relations with Russia. But my impression was that before then, the US neocons and friends had gotten Banderites into key positions in government, way in excess of their representation in society or the Rada (1% to 2% as of then). I recall seeing Chrystia Freeland interview George Soros a couple of years before that. Soros bragged that 15% of the people in the Ukraine government (by that he meant the Administration, not the legislature) had either personally gotten Open Society grants or had an immediate family member who had. Now getting an Open Society grant does not necessarily mean being a Banderite, but it does mean being Russia hostile.
Recall also that the Banderite in the post-Maidan regime snagged positions in the internal policing-security apparatus, so they could use force. It’s not hard to imagine that the Zelensky reversal was due to threats to his safety. Other politicians had been badly beaten and at least one had been killed.
Even assuming the Ukraine government is coming to recognize that its goose is cooked, the Banderites may well be in Fuhrer-bunker mode. Russia has promised war crimes trials. Russia would likely go to some lengths to hunt down prominent neo-Nazi figures. Zelensky has to assume the walls have ears as far as his Banderite minders are concerned, save perhaps when he can meet foreign officials in private. And the Banderites have an escalatogical bent, so they might prefer to ride on a white horse into the flames rather than go to Canada, get plastic surgery, and hide out with Galicians.
In the meantime, just three hours ago, Zelensky put up a tweetstorm that indicates he is persisting as best he can in his current course:
We are very grateful to the United States for all the support. I’m thankful to President Trump, Congress for their bipartisan support, and American people. Ukrainians have always appreciated this support, especially during these three years of full-scale invasion. pic.twitter.com/Z9FlWjF101
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) March 1, 2025
Zelensky is to meet with Keir Starmer. The Independent reports that the Europeans are trying to use the rift to worm their way in:
Donald Trump “needs to sort out this mess as much as Zelensky”, Sir Malcolm Rifkind has told The Independent, warning that the US president “cannot deliver a deal unless Zelensky agrees”.
Backing Sir Keir Starmer’s approach to the situation so far, Sir Malcolm – who has previously served as both defence secretary and foreign secretary – said European leaders should help to mediate between the Ukrainian and US presidents.
And the even bigger question: how long can Ukraine keep up the fight? There are two levels to this question: will the Trump Administration take quick and punitive action, such as cutting off access to intel, such as satellite data, and comms, most of all Starlink to force a Zelensky resignation or ouster? A wee problem is that two of the top pretenders to the throne, former general Valerii Zaluzhny and Petro Poroshenko, are also strongly anti-Russian and will probably do their best to sandbag a deal.
Or will it assume that no arms shipments and bad press will do the trick and lead to even more desertions and refusals of orders?
In the meantime, Zelensky has many backers, even if they aren’t in a position to do him much good. A few of ample examples:
This isn't about Zelenskyy, a patriot and hero. This is about an American administration penetrated and compromised by America's enemies.
— David Frum (@davidfrum) March 1, 2025
This is utterly repulsive!
Trump and Vance just tried to humiliate Zelensky live on American TV, smugly demanding gratitude while openly mocking him like playground bullies counting favors. My respect for Zelensky—and my embarrassment as an American—just surged off the charts.… pic.twitter.com/0C4d03PDmi
— Brian Krassenstein (@krassenstein) February 28, 2025
Another view:
⚡️🇬🇧🇺🇦British soldier has a message for the world from the Ukrainian frontline: pic.twitter.com/N1UAo4jLSi
— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) March 1, 2025
If this is bona fide, it says that some in Ukraine do not want to give up despite the high cost.
So this is not over until the fat lady signs. And despite all the high drama, that has yet to happen.
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100% Kayfabe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVeVcVBW_CE&t=316s
Yes,that is Brian Berletics take on this episode. He thinks it is all orchestrated kayfabe. The plan is designed to hand responsibility for the Ukraine project to Europe, and fool Russia into freezing the conflict. The US then focuses on China while rearming Ukraine behind the veil of its cutouts in Europe. Domestically Trump can pretend to be the peacemaker and be seen as getting the US out of a bad deal.
Why “pretend”? If the war stops then he would be a peacemaker if he had anything to do with it.
Because the “peace” is a ruse just like Minsk 1 &2. A stalling measure to freeze the conflict on US terms and regroup to try again when they have another chance. The policy to weaken Russia hasn’t changed.
But that’s in the realm of speculation. If Trump did pursue such a course he would be giving comfort to the Bidenistas and Europeans who he seems to despise. It’s hard to see what he and his primary supporters would get out of it but then we don’t know everything which ids the issue here isn’t it?
Personally I think Trump wants to bring Russia in from the cold which would be the greatest possible revenge on the political factions–Dem and Repub–who have been his greatest enemies. This is someone who paints “Trump” in giant letters on the side of his plane. Don’t underestimate the ego factor here. Zelenski tried to confront his vanity. Starmer soothed it with a royal invite and Putin says “I will be happy to meet with Donald.” Putin is a lot smarter than Z.
Yep.
While I usually disregard personals in geopolitics in Trump´s case the situation at hand offers him to establish himself as a “great” president (whatever that means) and prove his critics wrong. He is not an artist or a writer. He has everything money can buy. So what else is there? Only his reputation and forcing his enemies to concede. I can well imagine that he has grown sick and tired of the things the West has been calling him (what of those things in particular are true or not I don´t know. But neither Obama nor Biden were ever dragged into that kind of mud.) The other important incentive is the establishment of a new golden era of Republican-ism, be it via Vance, Gabbard or Rubio 2028+. And I assume he will really act accordingly and demand respect from his staff and cabinet to achieve those goals. Which means we might indeed encounter a relatively decent POTUS – with the limits of the system and his social strata. And he needs – and that might be the biggest obstacle – the billionaire class (e.g. Adelson and the demise of Gaza which is part and parcel of Trump´s coming 4 years). So the space for him acting out of the ordinary is rather limited.
p.s. since Nixon did we not have – potentially – a president where his real policies were so overshadowed and misrepresented by the evil image media painted about him. Trump will try to alter that.
While I generally like Berletic, he is outside his area of expertise on this one and it shows. He should stick to arms, military capabilities, and NGO funding.
He is too fond of seeing things as more controlled and controllable than they are.
Did you miss the Munich Security Conference? Did Berletic? The US ALREADY handed the responsibility for Project Ukraine over to Europe. The only question was how quickly they cut of what little was left of the money and weapons dripfeed, and if they continued to provide low-cost support, like intel and comms, so as to have some itty bitty bit of leverage in talks with Russia.
The problem was and is dropping Ukraine like a hot potato = no leverage with Russia in peace talks. I have repeatedly said they will fail due to well-warranted Russian distrust of the US, but Trump is really invested in getting some sort of agreement done that he can claim is a peace deal.
The peculiar part here was Trump latching onto the Ukraine minerals deal. That to me looked like Trump in his “all tactics and no strategy” mode. Trump likes having/creating as many options as possible since he thinks having the maximum freedom of operation is best.
But options are not free!
Here, the minerals deal would CONCEIVABLY allow him to get more funding from Congress for Ukraine (Lindsay Graham was already hyperventilating along those lines), which would give him leverage over Russia by looking like the US was not committed to a fast exit path, that it could drag things out longer. Trump has an insane need to be the dominant party. The fact that he is failing to get Russia to agree quickly to anything has to be driving him nuts.
Good opinion from Yves. Russians hedged their position well when insisting that first US must normalize diplomatic relations with Moscow. If that doesn’t progress then there is no talk on UKR peace and strategic weapons control where the US is on the hook (no hypersonic weapons, $1trillion to modernize silo based missiles, Chinese weapons getting better and more numerous). Progress in current US-Russia talks is slow, there is no chance to achieve anything to reach Easters cease fire in Ukraine and May 9 peace deal. The only option for Trump to save his face is to put the blame on Zelenski. And that was the circus show we witnessed on Friday in White House.
Can Yves or the commentariat help me clarify something? I was under the impression that the mineral deal was mutually exclusive with a peace deal. If US citizens are required to “dig, dig, dig” those beautiful “rare” earths, than that would suggest enduring military/financial support for Ukraine (and thus prolong the war). However, Matt Taibbi, in his “Mr. Zelensky Goes to Washington” article says that “Trump and Vance clearly saw the minerals deal as a necessary precursor to making a security deal with Putin.”
So is the mineral deal desired by Putin as well? I mean, is there some gentleman’s agreement that the mineral deal with benefit both the US and Russia? How is the mineral deal a precursor to a peace agreement with Russia?
I read it not quite the same as you did. Trump was all over the map. He did imply the digging would be after the war was over but then he talked about mineral as security, as in Russia would not dare attack with Americans working in Ukraine to that degree, and therefore that could stand as a de facto security guarantee, which does not necessarily mean the conflict is over but “frozen” or at a much lower level.
I take the minerals deal differently with respect to Russia, that it’s a way to gain some bargaining leverage where now Trump has none.
Putin would not want a minerals deal. Russia has made four oblasts part of Russia. The US has not recognized that Russian claim. You’d have disputes over those rights.
Thank you, Yves. I seem to recall that when the mineral deal was originally floated, Russia responded with “Hey, we have rare earth minerals too.” In hindsight, I thought maybe Trump had back-channeled a desire to do a joint development of Ukraine’s resources with Russia.
Despite his experience living and working there in the 90’s and early 2000’s, I think Taibbi misses the mark on Russian politics. He portrays Putin as a one-note dictator. A mineral deal and peace with Russia seem antithetical to me. Russia is not going to allow a frozen conflict and especially not allow non-UN appointed security forces in Ukraine to protect those pillaging its mineral wealth (to whatever degree it actually exists).
Thank you again.
Again you’re spot on. Let’s not forget the ports part of the deal which will piss off the Russians even more. But on the minerals he would tell Putin “acknowledge that deal and I’ll recognize the four oblasts”. At which point Putin will tell him to shove it.
I don’t know what Trump is thinking. His way of going about this will make things even worse between the US and Russia (if that’s even possible).
At least with Biden they knew what they were dealing with. But the tactic of acting like the peacemaker while trying to one up Putin will backfire real badly.
The minerals deal is not mutually exclusive to a peace deal from Trump’s perspective. Firstly the deal which gives him a lien on half of all Ukraine state resources, then the Ukraine negotiates final borders with Russia, then the rape of Ukraine’s rump in peace. Trump’s aim is MAGA – the restructuring of USA Inc – not geopololitics. Every single one of his actions is in line with this aim. (BTW, you can argue that things like tariffs are counterproductive but that is not the issue. Trump sees them as both weapon and defence of Fortress America and so uses them on friend and foe alike).
Trump wants peace to reduce outgoing expenses so expect USA military cutbacks in Europe as well. No war against Iran, and definitely not China – just financial de-coupling to boost USA jobs etc. To understand Trump, follow the (Trump perspective of) money …
I beg to differ. Trump is doing his peace deal with Russia, not Ukraine. Ukraine is not a player in these talks. And Ukraine is an even less reliable party to contracts and treaties than the US, a difficult feat to achieve.
No one has recognized the Russian claims to the four oblasts. The commodities are disproportionately there. That creates a conflict between the US and Russia.
I haven’t heard of any negotiations about peace in Ukraine between USA and Russia – AFAIK all the talks have been about the USA-Russian relationship and starting with diplomatic relations. Please correct if wrong.
In June 2024 Putin set out 6 demands of which the last – removal of all sanctions – was not within Ukraines power to negotiate (the rest were) so clearly Putin expects some USA input.
But how long does Ukraine have before it collapses? What will be the affect of USA aid withdrawal on morale, let alone actual weapons and cash? If Russia is suddenly victorious and sweeps through all of Ukraine, deposing the Kiev regime, then the ‘mineral’ deal (if signed) is probably invalidated.
On the other hand, a rump Ukraine – about 80% of pre-2014 – is still a sizeable country and payments from state institutions (helped by IMF and World Bank reconstruction funds) may be the half loaf.
My guess is Trump has a list of the various possible income streams in Ukraine, together with estimates of time to develop, roi etc and will adjust his tactics to what will give the most cash for the least effort – which may not involve minerals at all. I don’t have this info or skill to work it out so completely guessing his final position. But based on my belief Trump wants to stop any more funds going to Ukraine then arm-twisting Zelensky to settle before Ukraine collapses looks likely.
Obviously Ukraine will be used as new Israel in the middle of Europe/Russia. Thus it will be nurtured by the globalists as a militaristic state, with Zelensky in military attire entering the white house. But Zelensky is overestimating the value of his personal acting capacity as an actor. Without him, a real general can be in charge with better weaponry from the West. Russia is quite aware of this Iraq/Iran replay in the Eurasia from the 80s. Only the weaponry has changed including biological/genetic weapons. Like nuclear weapons and nuclear technology, if one lives long enough, some civilian use of biotech may emerge as useful like nuclear energy, but in the early stage, terror only.
I agree with this analysis of Berletic. I understand why he is wary of accepting a genuine American reorientation away from Europe and Project Ukraine, but I do think this is what Trump is after in his own bumbling way. Trump’s mistakes here are related to what he will need to do to get Russia to agree to any lasting peace; he will either figure this out or Russia will continue the SMO until it comes to completion.
I don’t agree at all that Trump is “bumbling,” his strategy clearly is create chaos in the Empire of Chaos so that eventually the world can thrive rather that fight at the whim of degenerate oligarchs (mainly in Europe). I think what he is doing is not only working but is inspiring particularly after decades of corrupt and degenerate leadership in Washington (basically since the murder of JFK). He came to power despite the universal hatred of the oligarchs in the US and Europe, a serious assassination attempt, and the almost universal hatred of the PMC (which includes some of my children, BTW).
Odd how those American oligarchs were all arrayed behind him at the inauguration and how many, getting fat at the government trough, will now get even fatter. They may consider Trump uncouth but they clearly prefer him to Kamala Harris or anyone else the Democratic Party might have run against him. Having said that, the tariffs may force some of those oligarchs to reconsider due to their having conveniently offshored their manufacturing, fabrication and supply chains during the heyday of neoliberal globalization, when they were highly incentivized to hollow out U.S. capabilities in those areas to drive down domestic labor costs and gut unions. And, voila, here we are.
This gets closer to a concise and convincing take than almost anything I’m seeing. I also found persuasive your comment yesterday, Yves, that a mining and metals deal (however minor Ukraine’s actual holdings may in fact be) constitutes a kind of security commitment from Trump, since it’s assumed that Russia doesn’t stage a new offensive–a treaty having been signed–by sending its battalions through territory that American mining interests are working. A slightly expanded effort that I made to figure out what Ukraine actually has in terms of mineral wealth today suggests that much of what there is, minor in comparison to many countries, lies in the territory already taken by Russia. If just across the border–where much of the rest of such wealth is concentrated–American mining and other interests had set up extensive shop, one might assume that this would constitute a significant buffer zone.
(Let’s not forget, ffs, that while invading a country and killing people is not on, asking to join both a military alliance and an economic alliance which seethe with hostility toward your country–having been promised that this wouldn’t happen repeatedly as they crept toward you, as increasingly cynical economic rationale–is what triggered the invasion!)
The two pieces that I continue to come back to regarding any peaceful and prosperous future for Ukraine would involve (as Mearsheimer notes) the country becoming an avowedly neutral state, like Switzerland, and the desperate need to stanch the bleeding. How a certain kind of dutiful and dull, low-info Liberal can continue to bleet out support of Ukraine’s war effort eludes me, except insofar as it underlines the failure of the media to note for a wider public how dire things are in Ukraine. At some point, one may assume, Zelensky departs with a heap of hoarded wealthy. Maybe not to the United States, after all. ;)
The minerals document was emphatically not a treaty.
I read the four corners of the draft, which did not bind the parties in a legal contract. The verb “intend” to was in the very first paragraph. I am a law student.
Now, one can make the argument that even if it had no force of international or US contract law, the mere notion that a bunch of business interests would set up shop in the parts of Ukraine not under Russian possession would act as a kind of deterrent. However, the problem with that argument is that:
1. Even if the document had been signed, no US company was likely going to send people into an active war zone, absent a lasting peace agreement, and
2. The amount of time and money to get to a place where there are recoverable assets being monetized is enormous. Existing Ukrainian private sector companies like Naftagaz were explicitly excluded from the agreement. So we are talking of future interests, where the future could be a decade or more’s time.
So I find it to be a weak deterrent at best, and more likely something to use as a bargaining chip in any negotiations between the US and Russia.
Or a way for Trump to say that he had gotten something out of Ukraine, in return for all the money and weapons given to them.
It’s a moot point now, as the deal was never signed.
Yes, Yves, it seems Berletic’s worldview is so threatened by the idea of a real shift in US foreign policy that he’s prognosticating far in advance of the evidence. At the moment, he’s more partisan than analyst.
As others have said, why would Trump throw up these sorts of ink clouds as part of a longer-term devious effort to support the very factions that have tried to bury him for the last nine years? Like AG, it seems more likely to me that Trump is primarily driven by a desire to go down in history as a “great” president, thereby satisfying both ego and his desire for vengeance. The principal obstacle is probably that same ego . . . and his impulsiveness.
Russians know all of this and Team Trump knows the Russians know. And if I read Hegseth correctly the understanding of RU military supremacy to some extent has pierced US intelligence by now. If Trump doesn´t want project Ukraine to blow up later during his presidency he has to put it onto firm ground now. And that might take a lot of time. And the Russians if wanting to increase pressure on Europe to comply, which so far they have not, have enough additional leverage (additionally to Trump´s threats). If Trump and Vance intend to found an “era” of new conservatism they have to make the longterm decisions the Dems never were willing or capable of making.
Then why would Trump have tried cornering Zelensky into signing the minerals agreement? That gives the US an economic interest in Ukraine surviving. It is at odds with Trump’s pretense that he is going to be the guy in the middle who brokers a deal between Putin and Zelensky.
cornering Z on the minerals to T appears to be the easiest and most obvious of offers for Z to sign. Everybody understands it. It can be sold to all sides. So why not? But the minerals are eventually just a means to a political end. If that aint work something else might. Like change of personnel. With the caveats you mention above.
Might one possible reason be to leverage the seized assets? (I think I read that idea here a few days back) Would the minerals deal be worth anything when it comes to reparations?
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I’ve stopped trying to understand Trump is a rational logical way. In the space of 2 or so weeks, I thought he was unloading/walking away from Ukraine, then he wasn’t with the “deal”, and now he is again.
Trump is a kook. Now he’s our president, again. Oh, boy!
Well, the dead cat really did bounce this time. I mean, making the little Alberich fly over, complete with an entourage that would shame Mick Jagger, talking to him privately before throwing him into a press conference, then giving little Alberich the opportunity to to contradict him before ripping him apart in tandem with JD Vance in full view of the media, getting in some zingers about disrespect and ingratitude to the US and donating a couple of heavyweight thumps to Biden and his administration, and he’s changed the politics of the war game fundamentally, both in the US (Lindsay Graham is testament to that) and in Europe (Kaja Kallas’s deranged response was a model of its kind, holding the promise of future comedic moments before she is replaced), which will find that life is lonely and money is short when NATO’s senior partner has gone a-roving with his pockets a-jingling.
Pretty soon, The Don will be giving his own semi-improvised version of JFK’s American University speech, extolling managed trade, a self-sufficient economy from reliable suppliers who keep their word, and, evoking Churchill, “jaw-jaw not war-war”, and telling the world that strong leaders make strong peaces and the peaces he will make will endure. But, in the meantime, he made the most telling point when little Alberich got the bum’s rush from the White House. There is no place for Ukraine or the Europeans in any negotiation with Russia, unless Russia wishes to consult them for any advice they may wish to give.
Yes, the future is so bright we’ve going to have to wear shades!
Trump adulation is not a good look.
Trump is backing Israel fully it its horrific genocide and now land grabs all over the Middle East (see Syria and Lebanon). Experts argue the IDF is tired and now very overextended and is very vulnerable to a punch back, particularly if Turkiye were to join. Team Trump has done nada to rein this in even after the ritual beating up of Netanyahu before continuing to support him.
Trump is so deluded as to think the US can pry Russia away from China…just like Biden.
Trump’s interest in settling the Ukraine war is not just because is not winnable, but also to harbor resources to escalate with China, another conflict we will never win (as repeatedly shown in war games).
And on the economic front, if you don’t see that Trump’s modest tariffs during his first term backfired and his current DOGE+tariffs will wreck the economy, I can’t help you.
I chose not to comment on your other foreign policy points although I do have a slightly different perspective than you, but if you wish I will be quite happy to share them with after a goodnight’s sleep, although admittedly dawn is breaking here so I guess it is more appropriate to say a good day’s sleep.
Possibly some combo of:
1) because Trump always tries for the most he can get
2) there is no downside for Trump (from his perspective) in making the demand
3) If Zelenskyy rejects it, he can say “oh well we tried but these ingrates are hopeless” and wash his hands of Ukraine
Just listened to a bit of Steve Bannon’s show about the Zelensky spat, and he’s convinced that Trump’s grand design IS to form a new entente with Russia (painted as a wider attempt to avoid a WWIII), and to force Russia and Europe into a new alliance that isolates China. I don’t see this happening. I have no sense that Putin is a wizard, but he will–at best–play both sides against the middle. At any rate, we would (under such circumstances) find out how committed Russia and Putin are to BRICS. Trump might have a surprise there, too.
A lot can go wrong for Trump here in the near term, geopolitically and economically, that’s becoming clearer.
Question is will Trump be able to think out-of-the box.
He has not that many levers. For the first time since 1945 did a POTUS have this limited options to enforce his will by conventional military means.
He cannot bully any of the big powers militarily. So if RU and CHINA do not follow the tune – as you correctly suggest – Trump won´t have much but to go along BRICS lines of re-organisation of global affairs.
Because the US population would take it very badly if he imposed a new big military buildup with enforced conscription and what not to enforce dominance against the other powers. That would hurt him and the future of the party that he wants to build. Apart from the time such changes in a country´s military take.
Putin is never going to be pried away from China. This is a bizarre Western delusion. Biden tried before things got ugly in Ukraine and that was before Russia reoriented its economy to China. Putin and Xi get on fabulously, they speak many times a week and Putin even made pancakes for Xi on one of his birthdays.
And Russia has learned that treaties and promises with the US are worth nothing. We never honor them. I have predicted no deal gets done for that reason. Russia will demand proofs and assurances that the US will find insulting or otherwise not accept.
Putin was born in 1952, he’s now 72.5 years old. How long do you think he will be in office ? Dmitry Medvedev was born in 1965, he is now 59.5 years old, not the only possible successor to Vladimir Putin, but likely. From the moment Nixon came to China to the cooperation of China to fight both USSR in Afghanistan and Vietnam in Cambodia 1979-1989 period, 7 long years. What Trump have done in the Whitehouse is a TV show for Medvedev and the Russian. In Dec 27th 2024 Medvedev declare in his Telegram channel
More than 20 years ago, one of my American colleagues came up with a curious phrase about the events in Iraq: “Punish France, ignore Germany, forgive Russia.”
Why did I remember this? Here’s why: this linguistic triad is perfectly suited to the situation that will arise (and it will definitely arise someday) in connection with the end of the West’s hybrid war against Russia. And then our country will be able to:
a) forgive those weak countries that succumbed to pressure from the Anglo-Saxons and took at least a passive part in the anti-Russian Western trash (mainly a number of countries in Asia and Latin America);
b) ignore the USA. It’s all simple here: we won’t have any friendship in the next 100 years, and fighting America is expensive – a direct conflict will obviously escalate into a global nuclear war;
c) punish Europe. I’ll go into more detail here, because the current Old World doesn’t evoke any emotions in me except the deepest disgust. It was Europe, which turned into an evil, half-witted old woman, that became the main stronghold of Russophobia in the world. It was lying Europe that is to blame for the breakdown of the Istanbul negotiations. It was brainless Europe that frantically promoted a talentless sanctions campaign that brought its citizens colossal losses. It was bloodthirsty Europe that fed all the most rabid demons of war, without regard for the losses of the parties to the conflict.
And therefore Europe must be punished by all means available to us: political, economic and all sorts of hybrid ones. And therefore we need to help any destructive processes in Europe. Long live the aggressive rioters on its historic streets! Glory to the crowds of migrants committing atrocities and hatred destroying the rainbow European values! Let all the vile mugs of European bureaucrats disappear in the stream of future civil clashes!
Why so harshly? How else, given the facts? The ship Oslo Carrier 3, flying the Norwegian flag, refused to take on board the Russian sailors from the Ursa Major, who were drowning in the Mediterranean Sea. Do you need any more explanation? This cannot be forgiven!
We will act, for it is said: “The righteous will rejoice when he sees vengeance; he will wash his feet in the blood of the wicked” (Psalm 57:11).
Later, he wrote in Chinese 让我们一起努力，让世界变得更美好！Let us work together to make the world a better place!
Now, if you think of 10 years ahead, it’s better to have Russia as an ally than as an enemy, no matter how hard that pill is difficult to swallow, so the show in the Whitehouse is designed for the pleasure of Medvedev or any possible successor of Vladimir Putin. As to Putin himself, he knew too well what American deep state is capable of, including the show with Zelensky last Friday.
Sounds about right – and as I’ve said before, after Minsk, I don’t think Russia is going to “fall for it” again. That week of shock and awe sorties remains on the cards, and no one is going to send any troops/munitions once that begins. In addition, Z is now weakened at home. Suicide bombings of recruitment centers is just the start. Z has officially outlived his usefulness (via X).
This illustrates some of the pressure that’s on Trump. His reputation will suffer if there’s an enormous massacre. And that massacre, week of shock and awe, etc., has hung over Ukraine’s head for a while. They won’t be able to lay that at Biden’s door, and Trump’s insistence that he was going to resolve the problem on the first day will be recalled forever.
I thought it was an ambush yesterday (and made comments to that effect in the Water Cooler) but looking at the whole thing today I have changed my mind. Had Zelensky done as the King of Jordan, or European politicians, and not contradicted Trump to his face, I doubt there would have been a blow up today. Look at the beginning of the press conference with Trump doing his usual glad handling of the foreign visitor.
As have been pointed out on this site, the mineral (and infrastructure) deal would have tied Trump to Ukraine, and made it harder to distance himself from the war effort. That would have bought Zelensky time for other events to occur. But Zelensky didn’t keep his head cool, and now there is an open rift.
Thanks Yves for the link to the whole press conference. Really changes the context of the blow up.
fjallstrom, you probably won’t see this but to watch anything in its entirety, live or in replay, re US Gov’t. the place to go is: C-span1, C-span2, C-span3. C-span1 began transmitting in 1979. Brian Lamb’s ‘brainchild’ is an absolute treasure trove of information, indeed a marvellous resource, not just for US Gov’t. but also provides a comment free/commercial free* “symposium” for American intellectuals, authors etc. The C-span video library is an incredible service. C-span was a godsend during the financial meltdown of 2007 and 2008.
In 2024 Brian Lamb stepped down after 47 years:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21t2-m_yeMc&ab_channel=C-SPAN
The Trump/Zelensky “meeting”:
https://www.c-span.org/program/white-house-event/president-trump-meets-with-ukrainian-president-zelensky/656418
* “C-SPAN began airing internet commercials early in 2021 and now sells C-SPAN merchandise. As the network is an independent entity, neither the cable industry nor Congress controls the content of its programming.” I turn off my ‘Adblock’ for Cspan now but the ads do not interrupt programming.
Thank you.
I was aware of C-span as a television channel, but had never thought to look for it online. Obvious in retrospect.
I think I will wait a few days while Europe absorbs the implications. As I understood the Starmer and Macron visits that les up to Zelensky’s, Europe sought assurances that the US would remain engaged in the conflict, and both failed.
I see a parallel to the economy. Bessent commented in a Bloomberg interview yesterday that Trump saw the current recession signs as holdover from Biden, and this would be Trump’s economy in 9 to 12 months. In both cases, Trump may want to front load the bad news with an eye to improving conditions by the end of his term.
Worth noting: Trump mentioned troop losses of a couple of thousand a week. Might be a sign he’s getting accurate intelligence.
“Blinken, Rice, Nuland, and Vindman conference call with Zelensky”
Wha? We’re still not rid of Blinken? Maybe the big blowup aimed at them more than Z.
Whatever is going on it seems that R2P is out and transactional is in. And on that basis it’s hard to see why we were ever in Ukraine in the first place other than the greedy desire of some well connected Wall Streeters for the “breadbasket of Europe.”
I do think it’s encouraging that WW3 was brought up in Trump’s argument with Zelenski. At least somebody is worrying about it. Nuclear war would be a transaction after which all of us would lose.
The Logan Act. Per wikipedia:
DOGE is the proper anti-parasitic antidote to AIPAC and the MICC/NGO Complex.
In the same sense that nuking the entire western hemisphere will save Mexico from the scourge of American serial killers running away there to escape justice, yes.
If the above sentence makes no sense to you, that’s how DOGE reads to sane people. DOGE is poison, not an antidote to anything. It’s doing colossal damage in the name of solving problems that don’t exist.
Problems that do not exist??! Naive or dirty?
NYC metro is a bloody nightmare of organized ID fraud and benefits thievery.
https://jacksonheightspost.com/thieves-part-of-credit-card-ring-busted-several-roosevelt-avenue-fake-id-mills-closed
…But, California is probably the largest festering cesspool of such specifically involving the trafficking of children.
https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdca/pr/four-charged-multi-million-dollar-childcare-benefits-fraud-ring-bilked-california
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1987-05-22-mn-1219-story.html
And so on..
Occasionally a story of the inverse: a child stolen from the custodial parent and spirited out of the US years later proving their citizenship using the footprints taken at the hospital days after their birth as forensic evidence of their identity.
https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/infant-adult-footprint-identification
Exhibit A, $3.5million. Couch lint.
Exhibit B, $3.7million. Couch lint.
Exhibit C, less than half a million.
Exhibit D, what point are you trying to make?
Perhaps Trump could pull what they did to Michael Flynn on these guys?
this is relevant. thank you.
That caught my eye too. I’m not sure I understand. According to that Tweet, Z was on a conference call with those people on the way to this meeting? Really? Why????? Who exactly does he think is in charge? Biden? Those are Biden people. Why is he talking to them?
If this is true, and I’m Trump, I rip their security clearance immediately. And that would just be the start.
And get us out of that war – somehow.
Trump has already pulled Blinken’s security clearance. I don’t know about the rest but I am not sure they were at a level that they would continue after leaving office.
I believe Trump has done a clean sweep of Biden’s ‘friends’ regards to security info. Including Biden himself. (Not that Joe could remember any of it :).
Trump revokes security clearances for Antony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, Reuters, Feb 5.
Another reason for Russia to take any negotiations really slowly.
Was that a verified communication, or was that just a satirical post? If the former it would be outrageous, especially from those four. But surely that didn’t actually occur, did it?
Pretty sure the post was satirical. The post’s first comment is the original poster saying “*I am speculating, but obviously I’m correct. Obama probably on too”
Lordie, Lambert sent it and he follows many political accounts so I assumed it was at least a real rumor or disinfo to make the Big Z look less bad.
That’s my only positive observation of this entire situation- at least Trump acknowledges that nuclear annihilation is possible if escalation continues. I didn’t hear of any NATO leader acknowledge this previously.
The amount that it’s positive, however, is miniscule, as the blob still thinks it can start and win a nuclear war.
I had a similar reaction. The whole exchange seemed surreal, especially given the setting with the media observing – and Trump’s almost mischievous comment at the end about it being “great television.” But when he says “you’re gambling with WWIII” – twice – there seemed to be a brief jolt of serious realism in the whole production. It would be nice if that were the lede in all the various media reactions. But of course it wasn’t.
You forget that Trump did 14 years of reality TV. Vance was VC in his prior life. Zelensky is a coke addict. All also highly dominant. Put three together and multiple points of serious disagreement on matters they deem to be very important, and a train wreck is probable if not inevitable.
The comment about World war III was actually the lead in an El Pais article: https://elpais.com/videos/2025-02-28/el-tenso-momento-entre-trump-y-zelenski-en-el-despacho-oval.html
yes, it was the lede in many stories round the world.
i thought a better one might have been how Trump doubled down on “I am for the good of the world…the good of the world.”
and indeed, in my opinion, this is on many levels an incredible improvement on what we came to mock comfortably as the norm.
This about Trump, he holds no fixed stances, is a most important observation and extrapolates across his sphere of influence. IMO, he appears to prefer operating in a chaotic environment to the point where his strategy is to create chaos in order to manufacture quick consent and avoid giving his adversaries time to work up and then “market” an alternate strategy.
That’s a good observation. His very unpredictability is a weapon.
I poo-poo’d the “rare dirts” deal as being legally unenforceable and an illusory promise, however, it did serve a purpose of luring Zelensky into a trap.
See also the horrific “Ethnic cleansing for Kushner’s back nine in Gaza” proposal, which viewed through your framework, makes some sense as a way of breaking the glass and getting previously unimaginable scenarios “on the table.”
The key to dealing with Trump is to keep cool and not react in real time.
Trump repeatedly referred to “raw earth.” Not even Vance dared correct him.
I view the mineral deal as a face-saving measure to allow Trump to exit declaring victory. Unfortunately for those hoping for peace, Zelensky may not have an exit.
Signal to noise ratio is rather unfavorable, so for now I’m going with the most simple thesis I can come up with. Trump views the minerals deal as getting something for nothing, the idea is we are owed. All other benefits are gravy.
As for “raw earth”, maybe he’s trolling, admittedly I don’t get it, he is old.
“Trump repeatedly referred to “raw earth.” Not even Vance dared correct him.” I heard that, too, and noted Vance’s non-correction.
Perhaps Trump wants a side of raw earth to go along with the main course of scorched-earth policy here in the u.s.
Or he’s aware there are very few deposits outside the Donbass worth mining and it really is just raw earth.
LOL. Thanks, bert.
I’m uncertain if “legally enforceable” matters at this early point in the end game. As you point out, it serves other purposes. Can it be used to leverage away the approximately $200B Russian assets held at Euroclear with a friendly court ruling? In turn, might this “court ruling” be used as currency in negotiations?
Pure speculation on my part here.
Chaos is a ladder.
Generally agree but doesn’t “no fixed stances” mainly apply to his tactics? His big ideas, like establishing good relations with Russia, have remained pretty constant.
I am not going to dare to comment on the geopolitical situation. That is well out of my wheelhouse.
However, there is something else going on in the video of this interaction – a situation I am all too familiar with. Over my life, I have been invited to many parties with fellow attendees being the type of people in the Oval Office yesterday. Often cluster B personalities abound – especially narcissists and borderlines. When one goes to the mens’ room on a few of these parties, there has been a cocaine table ready to use by anyone. I am not saying that there is cocaine in the White House. I am saying, and it is all too familiar to me, that Zelensky had all the tics, behaviors, etc of being totally stoked on cocaine. It is as obvious as it can be if you have been around these people for any amount of time. In my experience, this can lead to people mumbling unfortunate and escalatory things under their breath ( just as Zelensky did yesterday calling JD Vance a bitch) – and things can get very belligerent very quickly. It can rapidly become a testosterone explosion. Cocaine tends to amplify dramatically the user’s innate personality – narcissists become absolutely obnoxious and unreasonable. They say and do things that are self harmful and instantly regretted. But all too often, especially if many onlookers are involved, permanent damage is done. Interestingly, I have seen many times the sober narcissist in the room attempt to de-escalate the situation. I saw in Trump’s behavior yesterday exactly what I have seen before so many times – a dominance trial followed by doing their best to talk people down and get everyone off the stage ASAP. If others in the room try to get involved, things may become more unfortunate. This de-escalation may take 5 minutes, it may take an hour depending on what all is going on. My guess is Trump in his world has been exposed to this situation many times and readily detected just like I did that he was dealing with a profoundly stoked up individual.
We as humans like to think we can control our innate behavior. Testosterone is just as much a thing in humans as it is in elks in rut. Add something like cocaine that amplifies it by 20 and you are soon dealing with real issues.
It is the curse of a doctor. I see patterns in everything and everyone I see. It becomes part of life. What was going on yesterday was just as clear as Biden’s dementia.
Yes, crystal clear to anyone who has been around cocaine imbibers. (which includes tea-totaler Trump).
The blood in the water was Z showing up to the (hallowed) White House in his Churchill-Mao black junta leader outfit. I’ll bet that the lack of a suit at the White House viscerally infuriated Trump.
Everyone can say what they will about Trump—–but he is always in a suit at working functions, even in summer on the campaign trail.
This line from the “Band of Brothers” TV series comes to mind…you “salute (respect) the rank, not the man (woman, office, hallowed ground, etc).”
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=salute+the+office+not+the+man+band+of+brothers
If Zelensky was thinking of insulting Trump by not wearing a suit, he probably never intended to agree with Trump in the first place.
https://www.axios.com/2025/02/28/trump-zelensky-oval-office-meeting-details
Zelensky in a suit with his ever present elevator-shoes would have been a sight to see!
Simplicius reports that the Z team was advised repeatedly to bring a suit, and thus, Z’s sartorial choice was deliberatively confrontational. The Duran also notes that Z has a long history of insulting his hosts and demanding they do more. The Trump team likely expected Z to proceed to form and stood ready to exploit–certainly, President “You’re Fired” has form, too. (hope my use of “form” is correct.)
While I have no doubt you are correct (many others have speculated that Zelensky is a coke-head, you’d need some sort of chemical booster to stay as derangedly confident as he has for so long), there may be an additional layer to this drama.
Former CIA analyst and daily briefer to 3 presidents, Ray McGovern, said in his Friday afternoon session with Judge Napolitano that the CIA prepares psychological profiles of leaders with whom top officials interact. He said they would have been sure to have worked out how to press Zelensky’s buttons if they needed to. And per your observation, it has to be pretty easy to push an already amped up coke user into belligerence and paranoia.
Long term cocaine use on the brain:
Mini-strokes, or transient ischemic attacks
Seizures
Cerebral atrophy, or brain shrinking
Cerebral vasculitis, or inflammation of the blood vessels in the brain and/or spinal column
Hyperpyrexia, or exceptionally high fever from a disease that requires medical attention
Changes to prefrontal and temporal lobe functioning, which hurts problem-solving, decision-making, spatial understanding, vocabulary, attention, learning, and memory
Changes to neurotransmitter production and absorption, which can lead to mood disorders
Changes to movement, causing tremors, muscle weakness, changes in gait, etc.
It does seem he is on something. Wouldn’t be first time coke was in the White House.
Thanks Doc!
Could it be adderall?
Not really. He was doing the classic nose tics of recently snorted coke.
Didn’t we see him wipe his nostrels too? I’m not going to rewatch the video, but I can swear that he did.
In college, post-military, I spent many months “cleaning-up” a coke bar in Chicago on behalf of new ownership, so I’m familiar with the behaviors and definately agree with your assessment.
Thanks for mentioning this. I thought I was seeing something in Z’s face and demeanor when he became overly excited with T and Vance, but I brushed off the thought.
Ta IM Doc …
Nice to have my comment the other day on this event corroborated by someone with your gravitas. Having spoke long ago on NC about Cokes effect, since discovered, whole history both individual and social. Its the same for any strong stimulant and how it effects the human brain chemistry since antiquity. Dopamine receptors getting smashed, effects on Executive functions, made even more dynamic by underlining psychological classifications – DNA/Environmental factors.
I have extensive experiences in this across the social strata since a kid, more so the elite level of it, and how it’s a factor from an economic perspective – multiplier effect via social networks and how – that money/use – shapes that environment over time.
I can back your description on how de-escalation works albeit one does not to be a sober narcissist to handle the situation – knowledge and experience, over some life works just as well. I played that part many times, and to some point, was kept around just for such an occasion, stop bad stuff from happening that many would regret later on.
All respected my intellectual capacity but, it was the military experiences and abilities that they respected the most. Could have made easy millions and turned it down but never burnt them – stories are wild and both GOP and Dems are inclusive.
A detail —
The ‘British soldier has a message for the world from the Ukrainian frontline’ link from Simplicius at the end is a South African and not a British national, with 90-plus percent likelihood.
That accent is almost certainly a white South African’s. I say that with some familiarity since my mother was from Cape Town (her people being originally Ukrainian Jews who’d fled Odessa, ironically).
Also, his ‘God sees’ talk is off-beam. Brit fundamentalist Christians definitely exist, but their message is much more God’s love, etcetera, than this war talk, which would generally be repugnant to them.
Did you listen to the video in full? He says is South African but now presents himself as a Brit because he cannot stand South Africa’s position on Ukraine. The fault is in Simplicius’ sloppy labeling of the vid and not the clip itself. Although it is conceivable the speaker had it uploaded with the label to reinforce his stance.
As you say. I listened to it in full after I posted, having initially been struck by the first 20-30 seconds of that very distinct Afrikaner accent and the warlike God talk.
I did listen to the video in full, about a year ago. Here’s a segment posted on SImplicius’ BitCute channel, 11 months ago.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/uVLHAA4cw8rm
It’s more than just sloppy labeling. I think the guy on the video got killed months ago, so it was someone else that did the re-uploading.
Oh, I did not realize it was old. Sad that he died but one assumes he would want to be remembered. This is a problem with Twitter. Thanks for informing me.
IDK YS … bloke was rusted on hard about some quasi religious thoughts w/a side of dominion over others, whole thing about virgins in in after life thingy. So the bloke goes to fight, long away from his nation to sort the world out, in his mind, and now a Darwin award.
Next question is if he would if it was not payed work and did it just on ideological reasons alone – naw – payed the price of that mindset.
He was a medic and his remarks about virgins was directed at the parties he criticized for not supporting Ukraine enough….God will judge them, there will be no virgins waiting for them.
But agree re Darwin Award even so. I had thought the Ukraine gig got a bad name among mercs pretty early on, yet he was still there.
Mercs are not the brightest bunch lass … risk/opportunity costs phew … lived that tale …
Maybe there is a survival gene … lmmaso look at us …
Just as (supposedly) Gettysburg wasn’t intended to be the place where the Confederacy would have their showdown w/the Union, it’s pretty amazing that Ukraine (of all places) is the hill on which the 50-year of the alliance of neo-conservatives and neo-liberals will make their stand.
Trump will win this (by happenstance rather than 4-d chess). Few care about Ukraine outside of the Beltway, NPR, or NYT.
>>> “….conference call with Zelenskyy on the flight to DC…”
presumably this was on Starlink or Iridium, and presumably both are NSA-accessible—even with “encryption”?
Wish I knew the answer now, versus having to wait 30 years before things get partially declassified.
though I doubt any any of the events were premeditated or “4-d chess.”
Unless he said it a second time, I thought Trump saying it was possible that Ukraine would get some territory back was just a conciliatory nothing that was in line with his instinct of not conceding a negotiation position up front. It didn’t seem like something he thought was remotely likely.
Observations:
1. In a war that has been visible through memes and public-relations stunts, even as a million soldiers have died in old-fashioned trench warfare, we are seeing something for the first time, in a sense. The gristly side of negotiations. In the past, this would have been done in a smoky room over cognacs. In the new over-media-ated era, Trump decided to play from strength — he perceives himself a showman.
2. What we are seeing is “sausage being made” in foreign relations. I have no doubt that other meetings in other countries at other times have been just as contentious. Imagine the dismantling of Hungary at Versailles. Here, Zelenskyy is the unlucky autumnal pig, and Trump is attaching the sausage casings to the grinder. Again, in a war fought on social media, we are seeing the unseemly finale on social media. Where it shouldn’t be. But it is.
3. I see two comments above: Kayfabe? I’m not so sure. One of the reasons is the presence of J.D. Vance. Trump is ensuring his succession. As of today (in this overly volatile time), J.D. Vance is the next president.
4. What does Trump want? He’s a real-estate tycoon. Let’s take this at face value. He wants the mineral rights and some kind of repayment for Joe Biden’s belligerent largesse. This is how things work in Trump’s world. We are not dealing with Franklin Delano Roosevelt anymore.
5. Vindman? Wow. That’s enlightening. Fortunately, Heather Cox Richardson has been channeling Vindman all these years.
6. When the Democratic Party / liberal elites turn Trump into the peacemaker, we are at the point where we truly must admit that the liberal elites are a pile of smoking rubble. Fine by me — I’m a leftist.
7. These maneuvers are enlightening,, as shown by the string of hallucinogenic twiXts above. I am also seeing this phenomenon on my BookFace feed: Liberals who want to fight to the last Ukrainian. The chickenhawkery is to be expected.
Scheerpost had a Scheer/ Ray McGovern dialog that–while too quick to assume a Nixon goes to China scenario–revolved around Scheer’s memories if that long ago event and how his liberal friends refused to give Nixon any credit because they hated Nixon. The insistence on personalizing everything is what makes the TDS-ers like Maddow as much cult as any sort of intellectual movement, and they find a not so distant mirror in the 60s/70s where the Kennedys were treated as martyred heroes without flaw and Nixon, with his Bebe Rebozo, as a desperately unhip boob and scoundrel. Making govt about glamor may be playing to the H’wood adjacent Dems’ strengths but it is also, like Hollywood, quite shallow.
“All about the PR” is a filibuster that doesn’t solve any of the world’s problems.
Great comment. I used to know people who knew Nixon and worked with him and their view (and they were intelligent folks) was he was a great human being. I never joined in on the hatred of Nixon, who was actually, the last Social Democrat to be POTUS.
Vance’s comment about “campaigning for the opposition” was probably missed by most people but an extremely telling line
Yeah, I laughed aloud when I heard that shot — no denying it either.
I noted how unusual it was for a president to allow the vice president to speak significantly in the President’s presence – usually, they are dispatched to another event or city.
I have no recollection of Biden tag-teaming with Obama in a high-level press conference or even of Pence with Trump 1.
Love them or despise them, Trump and Vance are the two most competent US politicians in a long long time.
And who is the Dems are going to run against Vance? KamalllammaDingDong? Cuomo?
It will be like clubbing baby seals.
I was hoping Newsome just to get him out of California politics. His little happy dance talking about bulldozing Altadena for high-rises and corporate real estate just after the Eaton fire was sickening.
That was sooo bizarre (the happy dance). He was practically gushing with glee, too.
“So this is not over until the fat lady signs. And despite all the high drama, that has yet to happen.” – Yves Smith. Indeed. “He doesn’t have any cards.” – President Trump. Not entirely correct. Z is still getting US weapons and other military support. Time for Trump to do as he claims in supporting peace and cut off US military support. That will allow the natural order to return.
It’s been reported that US financial support for grid reconstruction was halted. The lights are being turned off literally and figuratively.
Or more likely, reduce funds bring pocketed by Ukraine officials.
If he cuts US support and the Ukraine collapses, then he has his very own Afghanistan and I do no think that he wants that. It would also give the Democrats to beat him over the head with in the next elections. He still obsesses about Afghanistan as he ranted recently about the $80 billion of military equipment left behind with the implication that Afghanistan should return them. Would he demand that the Ukraine return all its US military equipment?
I think a rewatch of the full clip pretty clearly shows the US intent was to get the agreement signed. Zelensky missteps started after Trump’s call for a final question from reporters, when he reacted to Vance touting Trump’s diplomacy over Biden’s chest thumping, and argued that Putin couldn’t be trusted. It looks to me like Zelensky chose to publicly press for more solid guarantees rather than to make his case privately.
Lindsey Graham said that Z was told that the plan was this agreement first, then further peace talks, and Graham said he didn’t think the US could work with Z after this. Rubio said Z could have signed five days ago but wanted to come to Washington. I think Z miscalculated badly and he should look to execute his exit plans. When you’ve lost Lindsey Graham…
I beg to differ with your comment at the end of your first para. It was Trump, not Zelensky, who called the presser. Leaders normally never do presser with two senior people from different countries unless something has been decided and both have agreed on the script or both are so well housebroken that they know how to mumble mumble and not say anything that will cause trouble. Neither was operative here.
Not sure where we differ. I’m saying he would have been better served not to react to Vance’s comments. Whether Trump should have continued with the presser after Zelensky refused to sign is another matter.
Didn’t LBJ use surprise press conferences as a political tool?
As I understand it, Johnson would walk his political opponent out of an oval office meeting and into a presser at an atypical location, announce an agreement, and let the sucker who is with him deal with denying it without any preparation or notes.
Trump was (is) a reality TV star and he’s undeniably good at doing reality TV. I’m surprised that more of his official public interactions are not like realty TV, since that’s a skill that most people don’t have. TBH I’m actually morbidly eager to see the Jerry Springer-esque future episode that will happen when Musk inevitably gets fired.
Reality TV is to reality what the US is to a country.
Hah, the LBJ find is a good one! But note how it apparently fell into disuse after him.
Commentators also forget this was 2 on 1 versus a guy who is not a native speaker of English.
Yes, LBJ was an SOB and used a lot of dirty tactics. But he did have a strong streak of genuine humanity regarding poverty (from which he himself emerged) and race relations. DJT only has the SOB part.
Aside from the analysis presented in the article, let’s talk about how this appears to those who are watching it. First off of course, this makes really good TV. It hearkened back to The Apprentice, where Donald Trump is tough talking a subordinate and threatening to fire him if he doesn’t get with it. It makes Donald Trump look strong and in control, and a huge contrast to the last president. I think Donald Trump may be more popular in the rest of the world than people in the US realize. Especially after the embarrassment of Joe Biden.
Also not mentioned in this analysis is what may seem to the rest of the world as the most important part: when Trump says “You are killing your people, you are risking World War III”.
For instance, look at the subhead on the coverage from El Pais article:
https://elpais.com/videos/2025-02-28/el-tenso-momento-entre-trump-y-zelenski-en-el-despacho-oval.html
Making for really good TV has little to do with reality. I have no idea how this makes Trump look good to anyone except his hard core fans. Far from making Trump look tough, it makes him look unprepared and out of his depth. It might be one thing if this was in a vacuum. But against the backdrop of letting DOGE and Musk run roughshod over the federal government and firing thousands of people willy-nilly, it only cements the idea that Trump is again tripping over his own feet. While he’s staged things much better this time with a plan and people in place, he still has no strategy.
Adding to this picture are domestic concerns based on Musk’s actions (talk about someone on something), which are starting to create additional issues. Potential massive unemployment, GDP forecasts getting slashed, and increased dissention in the ranks. And the optics of veterans getting the shaft on multiple layers is hardly going to win Trump any accolades from conservates.
Trump’s popularity is akin to what W Bush received after 9/11 and is hardly based on Trump being a great statesman or leader. It also appears he’s handling his advantage about as well as Bush, frittering it away as quickly as he got it.
Well urdsama, I’m trying to tell you how Trump’s meeting with Zelensky is playing in South America. Nobody here knows anything about DOGE or Musk. What they do know about is Milei, how bad Biden was, and how dangerous World war III is to them. I really don’t know how it’s playing in the US, I haven’t lived in the US for 8 years, but I do know a little bit about how it’s playing elsewhere.
Well, I have spent my morning in the hospital. In my blue town, all of the town had Salva Ukraini signs everywhere for years. They have all been gone for some time and not seeing anything today suggesting there will be a comeback. Almost all of my patients wanted to talk about the events of yesterday. I would say it is about 80-20 in support of Trump and Vance. A real give ‘em hell Harry feeling is seeming to be had even among the Blue. I saw quite a light bulb going off a few weeks ago when Zelensky announced that he could not account for 100 billion. That is just not going to go well when we have all the problems we do that are not being addressed.
That being said, a brief look at my Facebook feed is showing all the usual players putting back up their Ukraine flags. I do not know about everyone else, but when I engage these family members about this, pretty much all they can say is this is all about Trump. Quite deranged. They have absolutely zero realization of the last 12 years or so. They really scare me. I think whatever is the case, we are in a very bad place as a country.
Thank you, IM Doc. I’m actually surprised that the missing 100 B didn’t come up yesterday during the Zelensky defenestration.
“I do not know about everyone else, but when I engage these family members about this, pretty much all they can say is this is all about Trump. Quite deranged.”
You’re not alone, IM Doc. This is what I’ve experienced too; I’m grateful I can come here to N.C. and commiserate, because this is a really lonely country for someone with heterodox views.
This is a misrepresentation of what Zelensky said.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/where-missing-100-billion-us-aid-ukraine
To add, a lot of that “aid spent in the US” was to replenish weapon stocks, not for new deliveries to Ukraine. So was there double counting under Biden to make our #s seem more impressive, first counting the $ value of the weapons deliveries, which we most assuredly did, and then next counting the $ to replace them, when those new weapons might or might not be going to Ukraine, even before getting to the contracts often being for deliveries many years out?
Respectfully Yves, I do not buy into the accounting of US vs Europe aid to Ukraine provided by CSIS, Kiel, FT or WSJ. Or any of the other neocon megaphones. Their agenda was and continues to be provoking a war waged by the US against Russia. They will cook the numbers to support their agenda. And in defeat, the cooked numbers load the blame cannons towards Trump and the US.
Just taking the deployment of 10,000 troops to eastern Europe and using the oft cited $2,000,000 per man-year cost, that alone amounts to $60B. The neocons might contend that keeping these troops at Ft. Bragg or Drum costs money anyway, but it is still a cost and foreign deployments are not free. The marginal cost is significant.
What about ISR? The US has deployed an armada of satellites to provide 24/7/365 coverage of western Russia and Ukraine for 3 years. IIRC, something like 20+ satellites are needed to provide real-time information required for battlefield management and targeting. One can argue the satellites are up there anyway, but let it suffice to say all the hardware and analytical requirements are non-trivial. These things cost billions to build and operate. Thousands of technical support personnel are necessary at the NRO and Ramstein. Without the US ISR capabilities, the war would have been over a long time ago.
How about the black budget? The CIA established and staffed a dozen forward operations centers before the war even started. How much does it cost to build a dozen hardened facilities and staff them for a decade?
The latter phases of Afghanistan were running at something $50B with very limited US troop involvement. Ukraine is a vastly larger project. It surely has cost more than the neocons’ estimates.
Who contributed what to project Ukraine is ultimately irrelevant. We will never know the ultimate cost. We will never know how many civilians were killed since 2014 and by whom. We will never know how many dead soldiers there are on either side.
I don’t believe Trump’s word on almost anything, but then I don’t trust the neocons either.
Thank you, Expat2uruguay. I would add that many countries of the Global South have experienced the tender mercies of USAid destabilizing their countries, along with the Blinken/Sullivan we’re-the-boss-of-you diplomacy. So, it would not surprise me if people enjoying the drama and comeuppance of the biden administration. I do think, however, that the Bolivian people understand who “we’ll-coup-whoever-we-want” Musk is, and I think that the knowledge of what happened in Bolivia via the u.s.-orchestrated overthrow of Evo Morales most likely spread like wildfire throughout S. America (I hope). Whether it be blue or red, the snake is still a snake.
“Backing Sir Keir Starmer’s approach to the situation so far, Sir Malcolm – who has previously served as both defence secretary and foreign secretary – said European leaders should help to mediate between the Ukrainian and US presidents.”
So many sirs, so much hubris, so much greed, such limited touch with reality. Not only in Great Britain, but Continent-wide as well. Much noise to prepare the ground to spend 1 trillion euros in “rearming Europe to face the Russian threat.” That’s lots of commissions for the sponsors and full rice bowls for all kinds of lesser servants and hangers-on. Then again, there was the fact of hundreds of EU functionaries issuing the identically worded support on X for Zelensky shortly after the brouhaha in the Oval Office. It would be irresponsible not to consider the possibility that Zelensky conspired with our rapacious and deluded misleadership on this side of the pond to cause a scene. The purpose: conceivably to open the door for Euro “mediation” between Trump and Zelensky that the sirs wanted, and with that, to get the EU’s foot back in the door by trying to strong arm the US. And if that doesn’t work, well, there’s comes the ready made impetus to spend 1 trillion on war instead of on European populations. Because “Europe now stands alone as the shiny beacon of freedumb and democracy, and the US has also become the enemy.” This narrative has become de rigueur in mainstream Euro media this past couple of weeks.
In any case, the reactions in Europe don’t fill me with confidence about the emotional and intellectual capacity of our misleaders to face reality and to communicate honestly with us.
I have two boomer generation close relations with I being a (hard to say it but *middle-aged*, how did I get here!) dad of two young kids. They keep telling me that I’m anti-American, an isolationist, or just plain ignorant for my stance that I want this war to end ASAP, hopefully averting WWIII and having my kids live to adulthood (other impending disasters aside). They repeat, verbatim, all the empire propaganda in their arguments. I try to calmly explain the history of this situation going back to the break up of the Soviet Union (when I was all of 10 years old). They won’t hear of it. No willingness at all to challenge what MSNBC and their hero Rachel Maddow tells them. And these are two, smart, educated people. It just makes it all to clear to me how so many of our fellow Americans are completely incapable of critical thinking, whichever brand of corporate right/“left” media they follow. They won’t even accept the premise that maybe it’s a bad idea to be “poking the bear” against a nuclear armed power that can end life as we know it on earth.
I have been trying to find some simple primer, a document, web page, etc. that can at least lay out the history, from the assurances made to Russia by the west about no further NATO expansion east, up through the Maidan coup, and to where we are today. Something I can get them to read to at least try and understand the reality of the situation and my position. So far though, I haven’t found anything solid that would carry some sense of legitimacy for these folks in my life.
As a general tangent/aside…
I’m a leftist but would be perfectly happy with even the most mild, new deal dem type policies to try and put us back on track to livable country, protecting us non-wealthy inhabitants, etc. That’s the environment (old schools, new deal dems) I was raised in with my grandparents, back when I still believed being a “liberal” or democrat was a good thing. Now, both sides of the American political system just seem to want to spread misery all around. I guess my point is that as someone with two, young kids I feel existential dread for what they may have to experience in their lifetimes. I feel guilty that I’ve brought these two, sentient, innocent beings into a world that is crumbling.
I have been a long time reader but very rare commenter here. I generally struggle to put my thoughts into coherent posts in this type of venue. But I so much appreciate this site for allowing me to have a much more clear-minded view of the world even though sometimes I wish I could be blissfully unaware and ignorant of our realities.
Thank you to all, the authors, contributors, and commenters on this site for all the thoughtful discussion and information.
You mentioned “two, smart, educated people” who repeat the propaganda.
I am concerned that the American higher education system is educating the US elite to be what the indigenous Americans referred to as “smart, but not wise”.
I have asked a number of “educated” people to simply reflect about how the USA reacted to the installation of missiles in Cuba in the 1960’s and the similarity to NATO moving into Ukraine.
Instead, “Putin is a absolute dictator” or “Putin wants to annex Europe” is what I get in response.
In my view, while the USA higher education system is expensive, it fails to educate the foreign policy elite in any way other than “use the military, after all we spend so much on it”.
I want to move away from “let’s give war a chance” to more of a cooperative world, recognizing that the USA doesn’t always have the right answer.
Bribery and deception are as much resources of utility in war as are iron or gunpowder or diesel fuel.
Interesting to contrast the blue-MAGA liberals with the Republicans that I interact with, which includes family members and work associates (farmers and construction types are mostly MAGA or adjacent to that). There’s a significant minority of ultra-religious folk that want war (specifically with Russia in Syria, because Armageddon is a place) as they think it will bring on the rapture. Most, however, want the US out of Ukraine. They (correctly) point to Cuba as the US equivalent red line, and also point to the war as contributing to the US’ debt situation. This is a much more realistic and clear-headed view than what VBNMW Dems or Sanders-ish progressives have offered.
>They keep telling me that I’m anti-American, an isolationist, or just plain ignorant for my stance that I want this war to end ASAP, hopefully averting WWIII and having my kids live to adulthood (other impending disasters aside). They repeat, verbatim, all the empire propaganda in their arguments. I try to calmly explain the history of this situation going back to the break up of the Soviet Union (when I was all of 10 years old). They won’t hear of it. No willingness at all to challenge what MSNBC and their hero Rachel Maddow tells them. And these are two, smart, educated people
If they’re so righteous, why not suggest to them to join the Army, get some training, get discharged and head right over to Ukraine as a mercenary? if it’s not a smoking flatland or were’ already there in WW3 by the time get out of the service. Hell, just go now and Ukraine will give you basic training. This Ess aint a Call of Duty
Video game…
I hear more people talk tough about Ukraine and fighting the Russians but seems they have no balls when it comes to volunteering to go over themselves.
You can’t join the Ukraine military unless you already are a legal resident. There is a second option for those you have prior military experience. Apart from that I have no idea how exactly does a foreigner join the Ukraine army. There are no international bridges like there were in the Spanish civil war or the 1848 revolutionary wars. This war is purely national with some proxy characteristics. There is no way to join the fight.
I was thinking there were in fact “international legions?” At least, that’s the impression I got from pro-Ukr media…
Well, foreigners certainly are there and fighting for the Ukrainians and whatever these links are worth.
From CNN:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/30/europe/american-fighters-ukraine-bodies-repatriation-intl-cmd/index.htm
From The Moscow Times:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/03/14/russia-says-6k-foreign-fighters-killed-in-ukraine-a84462
From the City Paper In Bogata:
https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/over-300-colombian-mercenaries-killed-in-ukraine-as-war-reaches-1000-days/
And another:
https://english.kontan.co.id/news/complete-list-of-foreign-mercenaries-fighting-in-ukraine-10-from-indonesia
I have a suspicion that Ukraine will take anybody that wants to pick up a gun.
You’re right as far as I can tell. My teenaged youngest daughter came home last week telling me all about how Trump was wrong, Zelenskyy wasn’t a dictator, Russia has lost nearly a million soldiers, Russia was also close to economic collapse, and nothing the US or Europe had done in the last decade had at all contributed to the start of the war. Russia attacked Ukraine despite no provocation. I asked my kid where she had heard all that and she told me her honors history teacher at our fancy high school in Maryland had been explaining to her and her class about the evils of the second Trump administration. This teacher also apparently took several mental health days to drink following the election results. We have had some good discussions following her revelations. She doesn’t believe me but she listens.
As far as a primer on how we got here, Sheer Post, Consortium News, and related sites are the best option. I suggest this timeline primer for a start if you’re discussing these issues with people who are open to reconsidering the propaganda we’ve been fed for the last 10 years.
This is the paradox of Russia, or anyone who can provide justification for military budgets. Russia is suffering huge losses, and is on the verge of collapse, while at the same time, it represents a threat to invade all of Europe. It must be a threat to counter with arms expenditures, but not so strong that victory is not just around the corner.
Or
If Ukraine were in NATO, Russia wouldn’t attack, but if the west doesn’t beat Russia in Ukraine, Russia will attack NATO countries.
Perhaps even further back. Jeffrey Sachs references Mackinder’s “Pivot of History” article in 1904 which convinced England-as-empire that their only real enemy would be a strong Russia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History#Influence_on_other_geopolitical_models
After the end of the English empire, Sachs says, the U.S. took over the task of stopping any movement towards consolidation of territory in Eurasia.
Perhaps this has been linked to here already but the speech by Jeffrey Sachs to the European parliament gives a good short history of the Ukraine conflict. It requires some specific knowledge though, for example he refers to the leaked Newland-Pyatt phone call that many people will not know about.
https://youtu.be/hA9qmOIUYJA?si=mNqMImjDxCwAYVkp
If she’s getting this from her history class, maybe start with, well…history. Dabble in the Vietnam war history a bit, show her how the government and media lied for years about what was happening, how the Tet Offensive shattered the lies…and eventually ended with the fall of Saigon.
Show her how the reports during our 20 years in Afghanistan spoke of glowing progress…and then the government fell in 2 weeks.
Take a stroll into figuring out who blew up Nordstream.
If she’s interested, she’ll wrestle with this stuff, and she’ll end up a much savvier news consumer and more critical thinker.
But she’ll fail AP history.
I’ll just leave this here, Foreign Policy magazine, 2013:
U.S. Repeals Propaganda Ban, Spreads Government-Made News to Americans
For decades, a so-called anti-propaganda law prevented the U.S. government’s mammoth broadcasting arm from delivering programming to American audiences.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/07/14/u-s-repeals-propaganda-ban-spreads-government-made-news-to-americans/
Interesting timing.
Yep. I’ve noticed a lot of shows like Maddow’s appeal to the ‘feels’, not to the ‘just the facts’ Walter Cronkite-style of news. / ;)
Thanks for this link, flora. I remember that this happened under Obama, but I couldn’t find the link.
Thanks for the link. I will bookmark it as it will be needed in the future idiocracy.
About the time just after the Occupy Wall Street protests I see.
Well said. I’m a boomer generation person with friends, one in particular, who has the same take on the situation in UA. In addition to the usual line, he insists that Putin is dead set on taking over Europe and creating a new, larger, Soviet Union, then on to the world.
Also as a parent of two not much younger than you, appreciate your comments about maybe just making a somewhat more decent world. Unfortunately I don’t see any major political force in the US aligning with that approach.
Solidarity, fellow dad. I feel the same.
You might like to check out this recent address from Jeffrey Sachs to the EU. A good explainer of US aims off the last 30years , and into the future (includes a good deal about Ukraine from someone who claims to have been present)
https://consortiumnews.com/2025/02/27/jeffrey-sachs-the-geopolitics-of-peace/
“Wir wollen es nicht wissen.”
John Mearsheimer is a good source for this. YT videos, articles, etc. This is long but explains everything:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
Offer this, and then ask your friends if they have watched it all the way through, and what their specific disagreements are. It’s long, but that is to challenge them. If they say they didn’t watch the entire thing, immediately apply the brakes and tell them there is no point in discussing the issue if they won’t do their homework on this. If they persist with the MSNBC line, tell them that you see no point in spending time with lightweights like Rachel Maddow and just change the subject. And yes, call her a lightweight.
I haven’t read it but there is a book out by Scott Horton called Provoked that chronicles how the war was not unprovoked.
There were several articles by former Swiss mil intel officer and UN/OSCE official Col. Jacques Baud immediately after the war broke out that retraced in detail how we got there. (in different outlets–but can’t remember any off the top)
This is a good summary of how we got here
https://consortiumnews.com/2025/02/27/jeffrey-sachs-the-geopolitics-of-peace/
Transcript and video are on other sites.
So many great replies and suggested resources! Thank you all!
If you have to approach a couple of bullies with your begging bowl out, looking for support, you must smile and nod your head no matter how angry their nasty comments and loud talk make you. Whatever the reason, Zelensky blew his chance. Maybe they were willing to give him a tiny concession that he could have taken home and exaggerated, or maybe he walked into a trap they had set for him. But this was not how to handle it.
See my discussion of the lack of overlap in bargaining positions. Zelensky was never going to get anything on terms he could accept.
I guess I was thinking that coming away from a big meeting with Trump having appeared on the same stage with him, and seemingly reached an agreement about something (despite no real agreement in terms of their actual positions), would have put a little spring in Z’s step going home and dealing with his EU patrons. In other words, a transient PR boost from signing a meaningless minerals concession he neither intended to, nor would be practically able to, follow through on.
I can’t see that he got anything, other than a PR black eye, out of the way this in fact turned out. He had to know Vance was a hostile going in, based on the positions Vance took in the Senate regarding Ukraine funding bills. So the smart thing would’ve been to say nothing to him, just smile and nod. What a fiasco. Maybe Merz, Macron, and Starmer can extend his run a little longer, but more likely they’re already vetting his replacement.
He simply should not have come to the US. Egypt’s El-Sisi cancelled a scheduled meeting to avoid the treatment King Abdullah had gotten.
Trump was not keen about him visiting. Mercouris claims Macron and perhaps BoJo egged him on.
Perhaps. But considering he would be returning home not to face bullies but Banderites, maybe he felt it was better to try and play the sympathy card for a world audience than return to an early “retirement”.
The aid was not given for Ukraine, but for its victory. Now that it is clear that Ukraine cannot win, the aid must be returned or some other price other than victory must be offered. I think this is how Trump thinks.
The very definition of tar baby: difficult problem that is only aggravated by attempts to solve it.
Not all that different than the US attempting to solve the Israel / Palestinian conflicts. Another tar baby.
But how bad are these tar babies really from the perspective of the US? In both cases, the US stands at arms distance as US proxies do the wet work. And we can perpetuate them in perpetuity (withstanding Ukraine’s ability to perpetuate its population). Vice versa, there’s always the tradition that we can just walk away from the conflicts.
Eenie meanie minie moe, catch a tiger by the toe, if he hollers let him go.
If you look at the gambits that Trump is putting out there in both cases, he’s going the opposite direction (to Steve Bannon’s aggravation in the case of the Ukraine conflict). They’re gambits to make the US more of a stakeholder in both “tar babies”. Not stakeholders on the side of perpetuating the war, but rather stakeholders in business. And not just a trivial business stakeholder but the dominant stakeholder or as dominant as Trump can make it – the US wants to own the business. From what I can tell, the gambit is make Ukraine and Gaza into US colonies. Not like Israel. But rather colonies which are focused on business instead of war or lebensraum. Colonies that would serve as PAX NEGOTIUM (business peace) and thereby serve as a buffer.
Well that’s my most generous interpretation. And obviously a difficult play in the Ukraine conflict as it requires Russia to trust the US as not using the buffer as a pretext for buying time for conflict. If it plays out this way in Gaza, let’s hope that the Gaza-as-US-colony doesn’t get created via ethnic cleansing and the US provincial governor there is more merciful on the Palestinians than Israel.
One thing I worry about long-term here is if the Ukraine war is wound down with Russia more or less getting what it wants, there are going to be a lot of very angry Ukrainians, including Azov types, now with battlefield experience. They are going to hold the US and Europe at least as responsible for their humiliation as Russia. The classic “stabbed in the back” narrative will be easy to fall into. Assuming Russia is not able to collect all of them, what are the chances of retaliatory terrorism?
The US (with help from its client states) has a poor record lately of proxy warriors turning against it. Obviously the Mujahiddeen->Taliban situation is not identical, but there are a lot of rhymes that draw one’s attention. How much weaponry intended for the war has been diverted? And to where? Western nations seem not to hesitate about Azov crossing their boarders for fundraising and propaganda purposes. It seems like a potential mess.
The only thing I’m not sure about here is how ideological Azov and friends really are, which I imagine will be a big part of how this plays out.
The Azov types will still have to be fed and housed.
Who will fund them?
And the USA, Europe, and the UK appear to be only increasing their surveillance of their populations, which may cause the Azov types to avoid much activity.
There may have been a similar cadre of angry Nazis after WWII who did not cause trouble after the war as Europe was occupied by rebuilding.
Azov may find fundraising difficult as Europe has its own economic issues.
John Wright: Who will fund them?
I suspect there are enough fanatical Atlanticists who would be happy to turn over cash discreetly as long as they think Azov’s frolicking will be in Russia. Other targets can come later.
wsa: There are going to be a lot of very angry Ukrainians, including Azov types, now with battlefield experience. They are going to hold the US and Europe at least as responsible for their humiliation as Russia … what are the chances of retaliatory terrorism?
Very likely. Additionally ….
When John Wright writes: The Azov types will still have to be fed and housed. Who will fund them?
This is naive. Why should they live on measly stipend provided by stingy host nations, when they can fund themselves with mafia-type operations carried on in their new EU bases, using their skills and arsenal acquired during the Ukraine conflict?
Already, since the USSR’s collapse in 1991, the majority of the so-called Russian mafias that have emerged in the West have actually been Ukrainian. That’s now likely to take a big uptick.
aye.
people i know adjacent to, say, the mexican mafia, are already talking about that very thing.
expecting those people even way out here.
one thing about MM…and the Zetas, even, who the former had been allied with…is Keep Civilians Out Of Our Doins.
in the usa, at least.
they do not want the bad press from crossfire casualties stateside.
one MM member, whom ive known for almost 30 years, told me…”they’d kill me outright if i accidentally harmed a ‘civilian'”
⚡️🇬🇧🇺🇦British soldier has a message for the world from the Ukrainian frontline…
When he left the USA, Z flew straight to London.
Basically, when Starmer was in the USA, it wasn’t all about US back stop for “future peacekeeping” troops.
Dear Brit merc, you are misguided. Your cause is malarky to quote the Irish.
As to the 10 minutes meltdown in the Oval Office.
Ze obviously bridle at not being adored as he was with Biden! Maybe his handlers should not suffer from so much TDS.
What Trump said:
Not Obama or Biden.
Ukraine cannot defeat Russia, it is running out of bodies.
Trump is no longer buying the propaganda, the think tanks need to stop forcing a fiction.
Dying since last year is in vain for both sides.
Ze and the Rada are illicit.
It’s an old video. They guy was reportedly killed some time ago.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/uVLHAA4cw8rm
And not a Brit, but an Afrikaner. See my exchange w. Yves above.
I have seen it and posted a reply there first, but it did not appear yet.
I can’t figure out what I agree with in this multi-faceted “diamond”. However, it is hard to imagine Trump ever wanted the minerals deal and the baggage that came with it. Regardless, my two cents follow: This seems less about politics – of any kind – right or left, pro or anti Russian – and more about Trump and personal domination. It is his style and always has been. Everything with Trump is personal not political. It is a much more reliable lens through which to view him.
i suspise that trump offered Z a deal that he had to refuse.
but who the hell knows with these people?
Most of the posts and commentary around here admits that the USA involved in a protracted war now would hasten decline.
EU and UK are begging that the USA do this.
Enough said in my mind.
My view is that the way to cut through the noise is to risk oversimplifying rather than overthinking it. The only thing that matters is money. First…Trump is no longer paying for the Ukraine war. Period. No one else has the interest or the ability to fund it. Trump has the power to cut off the money, the satellite data, and all other support. Pulling the plug is going to happen, but if Ukraine is out of money, there is nothing for Trump to bargain with. The only issue with Ukraine is to make the end less pathetic. Notice that no one is talking about the details of cutting off Ukraine. They need the billion and a half of nonmilitary cash aid to run their government.
What is Trump’s BATANA…Best alternative to a negotiated settlement? It is to walk away and take our (US) funding ad non-cash military assistance.
The outcome is clear…the path noisy. Negotiations are over the optics. Zelensky rejected the lube.
Oh yea…Trump is cutting Europe off also.
Well summarized
Yves:
Yes, I believe they were given the ministries of Defense and Interior. Pretty much covers the map for controlling the armed forces of the state.
Checking the MoD website, we see that after Maidan the minister was a bona fide rightist, but soon they became nominally “independent.”
As for the Ministry of Internal Affairs, things look more clear.
It seems that after getting both plums the Banderites were willing to give the military some slack and satisfied themselves with formal control over internal repression. And we should remember that former commanding general Zaluzhny is fond of photo ops with Azov members.
Thanks for filling in that important history in.
I can’t accept the suggestion the dust-up was all a ‘cunning plan’ by Trump intended to place the blame for his failure to bring ‘peace in our time’ on Zelenski’s intransigence. I’d missed, but accept with appreciation IM DOC’s suggestion that Zelenski was coked up to the eyeballs while Trump’s ego and narcissism can’t cope with any challenge to his Alpha Male pretentions making the loss of control on both sides inevitable – and a black mark for whoever OK’d this public meeting (unless it was itself a ‘cunning plan’ to derail Trump’s peacemaking by someone pulling Trump’s strings.)
I think the minerals deal was Trump’s primary objective – as gleeful as Dracula on meeting a fresh virgin to suck dry – and he saw it as a way of cutting Zelenski/the Ukraine out of negotiations with Putin as the ‘peace’ the US would seek would be based entirely on its needs for a suitable environment for economic exploitation. I also think Putin would have been more than happy to have gone along with this as it would have passed to the US responsibility for crushing dissent (bad for business) in a rump Western Ukraine and even drawn US investment (for a cut) into Crimea and the East.
Trump/the US walking away from this is a major failure for Trump entirely a result of his loss of control, but neither is it in Russia’s interest as it leaves Putin having to deal with a hostile Western Ukraine he’ll now have to conquer or police in some way, and a fractured, squabbling Europe it will be impossible to reach any kind of reliable, lasting deal with.
Oh, the crushing dissent point is important and one that had not occurred to me.
My thoughts. I suggest watching the exchange with the volume off, forget everything you’ve been reading, forget what was said. The body language alone is utterly fascinating.
T is sitting closer to Z, knees almost touching, facing more toward Z, attentive, almost companionship stance. Z starts with arms folded, guarded, V and Z are looking at and paying more attention to each other. At times V points accusingly with a finger. Z seems like a lover spurned. Are they fighting over T? Vying? Jealous?
T is initially listening to both, noncommital, neutral, letting the exchange unfold. Z says something, T and V raise open hands, resistance. Now T speaks, Z drops guarded crossed arms, has clasped hands between legs, almost submissive posture, acknowledging T with respect. But then at various points Z leans in, attack mode, exclusively toward V, noticeably NOT aimed at T. T & V lean back. Then V leans in, counterattack, and Z leans back. As Z becomes more animated, insistant, passionate, talking over T, but always at V, now T touches his arm multiple times, calming, reassuring. Now we are in stalemate. Now V leans forward making additional points, but Trump puts hand toward V, signals restraint. Now T raises both hands, speaks, now V changes posture and stance, says something slowly, more calmly, conciliatory, with careful emphasis, hand signaling a drawing or inviting of Z towards him. Now T says something and both Z and V nod in agreement. All three from their posture end on genuinely wanting to come to some agreement.
From the body language alone, this is constructive dialogue, and if it’s Kayfabe then it’s top notch acting. But for the audience, if they believe it, this is going to be much more like reality than anything they’ve ever seen from this White House stage. This is animated dialogue or argument like you might have with family, or a team member at work. Because you both care about something Very Important (TM). This is going to resonate.
This is also males fighting but then, typically, the fight itself ending with friendship.
With T seeming as mediator between Z and V (albeit slowly and visibly coming to side with V, almost as a husband must side with a wife in such situations, even if reluctantly, because duty).
And why tell the press what to write, with press release and talking points to mask the real, instead let the world bear firsthand witness.
And we see in V a more active and involved veep than is customary, as US veeps traditionally hide in the president’s shadow, non-entities. T doesn’t seem to mind V taking the lead here, seems to support. Indeed, he’s the older wiser dude, V and Z are younger and hormones more in control.
T and V have very good chemistry, are able to read each others signals, as if they work more closely together, and more often, than is customary between a US prez and veep, are much more of a team.
I’m leaning towards they’re going to reach some agreement, there’s a chemistry going on here.
It’s now March 13, 12 days later, and I’m noting that my body language read above on this blowup event appears to have been the correct take, after all. In these days of words being meaningless I guess it’s probably best to just turn the sound off.
I think I would also add, the way Z stands up to and defends himself will automatically earn him the respect of the MAGAs, Republicans and US south, who respect such things more than weasel word diplomacy.
hmmm. I think you may be missing that most USians are tired of watching their roads and water systems crumble while billions of dollars are sent to what looks like a sink hole in Ukr. Ending the war was one of T’s appeal to the majority of voters, imo.
I wonder what citizens in the UK and EU countries will think, (after watching rising energy prices and reductions in safety nets and a destruction in manufacturing capacity), if UK and EU countries France and Germany send even more billions – not to mention actual soldiers – into the Ukr sink hole.
No potholes or filthy water systems permitted behind high gated estates and high value real estate, be that the Hamptons or a much vaunted locale in Southern Florida or Highland Park near Dallas, Texas…
But yeah… potholes and questionable water, questionable food quality and availability of “access” to dental care or medical care. First world problems that very much were there prior to January 2025. Not that national leaders notice or acknowledge such problems exist or will, most likely in the long term, persist and worsen.
Jimmy Dore and The Duran, utube, ~7+ minutes.
Zelensky KICKED OUT Of White House! w/ The Duran
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9mZvo96xuI
Zelensky could have insisted to speak Ukrainian in his meeting with Trump in the White House, even though it is not his native language, to get a somewhat better playing-field for his team. Especially since he knew that he was going into hostile territory. He has difficulty expressing himself in English.
See kengferno’s comment in today’s links:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/03/links-3-1-2025.html#comment-4183194
Z’s been shown on camera with fluent, unaccented English. So why did this actor from a prior life speak with such a heavy accent yesterday?
Look at the whole 45 minute clip, or just the beginning and skip to the end. His English gets much less polished in the end.
It would be better off if they used his native Russian in that meeting. Like English, Zelensky has had to learn Ukrainian as well and I am guessing that his Ukrainian is not that great either.
The essential message to Z here is more or less the following: we have used you to make war in order to weaken Russia; now, our policy has changed and we want to strike a deal with Putin at your expense. So, get in file and do what your are told to do.
This kind of bullying may work on the short term of course. But when even Canada does not like it and clearly say so, the writing is on the wall.
I agree.
It’s unprecedented for a new administration to utterly betray (and indeed reverse) the commitments previously made not only by the United States but all of its closest allies in helping Ukraine to fight off an invasion that has cost it hundreds of thousands of lives, not to mention documented rape and torture committed by Russian troops, the kidnapping of Ukraine’s children, the countless documented war crimes committed by Russia, etc.
The democratically elected (by 73 percent) leader representing this war torn country travels to Washington D.C. and is yelled at by two kindergartners attempting to parrot Russian talking points? It’s shameful to the point of being unspeakable. There is unanimous international revulsion at the conduct of the elected President and Vice President of the United States yesterday.
The comparison between Ukraine and Cuba has raised repeatedly in this discussion. Did the US or Europe ever attempt to station nuclear weapons in Ukraine? No. On the other side, did the United States invade Cuba, kidnap its children, rape and torture the Cubans, and try to bomb Cuba to dust? No. The comparison is false. Or more accurately the comparison proves the point that Russia’s conduct is aggressive in the extreme and nothing at all like that of the US under John F. Kennedy.
Here’s a more balanced take on what happened for those who are interested:
https://snyder.substack.com/p/five-failures-in-the-oval-office
I think you missed the part where the US, through the CIA and USAID, color revolutioned Ukraine and put in place a Neo-nazi backed government that promptly attacked its Russophone population. Moreover, the current government is illegitimate, having cancelled elections, outlawed opposition parties and even the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. They even changed the religious calendar to the Western one. As for the accusations of child kidnapping, rape and war crimes; I haven’t seen any objective source for these, they’re all Ukrainian government accusations. For example, where are the angry parents of these supposed thousands of kidnapped children? Crickets. As far as Cuba goes, is over 60 years of the USA starving them out and undermining their government enough? How many attempts were made to assassinate their leadership? How many Cubans have suffered and died because of the actions of the US government?
Thank you for this excellent summary, Bugs. The only thing I might add is that the Russian language was outlawed, too, IIRC.
“elections have consequences”
Barack Hussein Obama II
Nobel Peace Prize Laureate
Snyder? No, just no.
You are SERIOUSLY quoting Tim Snyder? He’s not credible on this topic. He is rabid and so disconnected from reality as to be a fabulist. He in the lead claiming Russia was running out of missiles and the Russian economy was about to collapse. I am sure he had more howlers but he was never worth treating as serious.
For starters, Russia did not “kidnap children”. They moved children out of a war zone, nearly always at the behest of parents. There has been a stunning absence of complaints by parents of missing or abducted offspring.
But since they were Ukrainian kids, moved to Russia., even when authorized/requested by parents…that’s supposedly a no go even if to save them from harm.
Raymond: Thanks for this link. So balanced and polite an analysis comes really as surprise.
The primary and most potent driver in Trump”s decision making on the Ukraine Problem is his desire to screw Zelensky with complete disregard for any immediate or long term consequences for Ukraine or Europe.
Zelensky defied Trump, refusing to help in prosecuting the Bidens and Trump must have his moment of revenge.
Zelensky will probably be assassinated with the assistance of American Intelligence.
It is Trump’s modus operandi to retaliate 10 fold against anyone who resists him and in doing so sends a clear message to anyone who finds themselves in the position of standing up to him in the future. Resisting his desires is as simple and saying “I don’t know about that” in public about anything he wants.
A new plan afoot in Canada.
Canada’s plans to fuel Ukraine’s war effort with Russian cash, explained
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/article/canadas-plans-to-fuel-ukraines-war-effort-with-russian-cash-explained/
Stealing protestor’s bank accounts, stealing Russia’s money – it’s all the same to Trudeau. You just make up the laws as you go along as its no skin off his nose. he’ll never see the inside of a court room for his actions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_forfeiture_in_the_United_States
https://ij.org/press-release/new-report-finds-civil-forfeiture-rakes-in-billions-each-year-does-not-fight-crime-2/
This would be called highway robbery or shakedowns or some such if we were the least bit honest about this activity. Innocent until proven guilty? Hardly…
I would argue this is just preliminary to the next logical step, and the real goal, namely seizing Chinese holdings. Perhaps soon to follow with the property and assets of Chinese-Canadians? Iranians? Etc.
I watched the news conference for a second time.
The moment the meeting “jumped the shark” was when Zelensky shrugged off diplomacy as a way to end the war. Bascially, Zelensky said the Russians didn’t honor agreements in the past, so diplomacy was not the answer.
Trump’s demeanor changed after that comment and both Trump and Vance went on the offense after that.
I personally don’t get the impression this was “staged” or was just a puppet show.
Zelenskyy: “You have nice oceans, and don’t feel now, but you will feel in the future.” Trump immediately responds to this. It comes across as a none-too-subtle threat, spoken to Trump who has suffered two assassination attempts in the past year, with one quite murky in origins but the other performed by a pro-Ukraine partisan. Trump also had Netanyahu gift him a gold pager, which seemed to also be a threat. To me, that’s when the press conference broke wide open.
Even is “someone” manages to find a candidate that’s willing to negotiate with the Russians, that person will need enough military backing to survive the Azovs and the Banderites. Seems to me like the real prerequisite to any credible deal with Russia is some kind of Night of the Long Knives where ALL the Nazis are purged at the same time.
Also why is Kiev’s Starbucks still open? Why is there still electricity in Ukraine’s grids? The Russians should have destroyed all those infrastructures and brought this conflict to a close. I couldn’t help but be more sympathetic to GM’s point of view on this conflict. If Putin really cares about the lives of Russian’s troops, he should have employed a lot more force (MUCH MUCH MORE missile strikes) against targets in Ukraine.
And this is exactly what Putin didn’t do while Biden was president. Well biden’s not president anymore, so Putin made aside to pummel Ukraine now. Why not?
I seriously doubt that the person in the white house matters one whit to the Russians in terms of how the Russians prosecute this war. I would add that it’s not just the Russian soldiers that President Putin cares about; it’s all the Russian speakers who are still in Ukraine, as well as the ordinary Ukrainians (not Banderites/Azovs) who have been caught up in a conflict not of their making. They elected Zelensky based on his promises to end the war, after all. If the Russians acted as brutally in war as the u.s. does, there could be some severe blowback from the Brics partners, too.
I don’t think it necessary that a candidate be found in Ukraine to negotiate ending the war. Russian knows that the fight is really with the u.s. which is why the Europeans and the Ukrainians are being kept out of the loop. I hope Donald Trump is serious about negotiating an end to the conflict, but I’m not holding my breath.
File this in the weirdly funny category. When the EU leaders speak as one, they really speak as one. / ;)
Robotic Euro Leaders Post Same Weird Tweet
https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/robotic-euro-leaders-post-same-weird
Ruh, roh. Trouble for Big Z. He was only useful in bringing money & weapons for the Ukraine but now his usefulness has come to an end-
‘Cillian
@CilComLFC
Feb 28
🇺🇦 BREAKING: Ukrainian MP Oleksandr Dubinsky just called for an Emergency Session of Ukraine’s Parliament to initiate IMPEACHMENT Proceedings against President Zelensky after the Oval Office shouting match.
This is HUGE. Zelensky’s Regime is collapsing in real time.’
https://xcancel.com/CilComLFC/status/1895562770348982370
Anyone have eyes on Nuland or the Vindman twins?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene_Vindman
Yevgeny Semyon Vindman (né Yevgeny Semyonovich Vindman) and his identical twin brother Alexander were born on June 6, 1975,[8] to a Jewish family in the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, Soviet Union.
Is Trump about to feel another jab of ‘Spork the EU ?’
Bernhard suggested on Moon of Alabama that Z was upset over Trump being hypocritical in the WH meeting.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/03/the-oval-office-shouting-match-wrap-up.html#more
Sorry but that is utter nonsense. Trump has nothing to do with any of this. If Z has a problem sort it out with the old administration. He can´t blame Trump for any of this because he simply was not the president. In fact Trump was more in courtrooms defending himself than anywhere else while this war unfolded.
Besides Z wanted the support which he is now denouncing. He was touring throughout NATO-land spreading the lies to garner the support which was pushing the people who he is responsbile for into annihilation. Z is simply overpowered by this job.
In the end Volodymyr Zelensky is nothing more than a meaningless mediocre TV actor. He should have stayed with his pianoplaying dick where it belonged.
I think the 120-year-old geopolitical idea of Halford Mackinder just crashed on the rocks. It will be interesting to see what UK, FR, and DE do next.
oh. So, they’re not going to fold their hands and wait out the T admin for a new neoliberal US admin. Interesting.
Norwegian fuel supplier refuses U.S. warships over Ukraine
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/norwegian-fuel-supplier-refuses-u-s-warships-over-ukraine/
The article began with this: “In a strongly worded statement” I wonder if the democrats were advising the company. /s
Maybe this will catch on all over Europe and they’ll kick out American troops and bases. I know; I’m dreaming.
Goodness, where have we ended up – now defending the US against Europe?
Leftists calling for war?
Me defending Trump?
The funny things is: German intellectuals only now seem to have discovered Mackinder. It´s odd to see the well-paid academia – and I mean the sane individuals who try to resist the madness – catching up very late to us anonymous ones and zeroes on blogworld…
p.s. And an Andrei Martyanov has long ago already crushed Mackinder´s concept as completely inadequate for today as being outdated. But it was only past December that for the first time ever I heard a good German journalist quote Martyanov and others quote Mackinder albeit affirmingly.
Thanks for the link, AG. Here’s what B said about Zelensky being upset:
“Zelenski wasn’t upset about U.S. hypocrisy. He was upset that he was told to make peace.”
Then B went on to say:
“Trump and Vance tried to tell him [that he was out of options and that he couldn’t win] – Zelenski exploded. Some say this was trap or set up. I and others disagree. It was Trump who wanted the ‘mineral deal’ to be signed. Why would he sabotage that?”
But am I right in quoting b saying that T and Vance were hypocrites. I believe so. That Z was upset about something other is a second matter. I merely find it incorrect to write Trump was behind all this. Which b says. But USA in this case is not T.
p.s. As I stated above, I still think the minerals deal is merely a means to a political end. It could be anything if it achieves the goal of shutting down/up Kiev.
Trump was president for half of the 8 years between Maidan and the invasion. He withdrew US from Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. He approved offensive weapons that Obama had not, as Trump bragged about to Zelensky. Moreover, as President he represents the United States, and is responsible for prior agreements and actions of the United States. Of course he can change his mind and change policy (and I hope he does), but acting like this war has nothing to do with him is wrong on both personal and
Reasons to listen to George Washington about “entanglements” in the ancient feuds of Europe!
Yes, Trump has expressed a new view of the Russian Federation’s progress toward the Dneiper.
Trump told Ze “Kiev is losing”, which shows he is moving away from the Atlantic Council propaganda that he accused Ze of spreading. Trump seems to understand there is little career in waging materiel war 6000 miles from the US while RF’s growing industrial sources are a few hundred miles away.
Worse than the troop loses are the number of kessels/artillery bags the RF is establishing over Kiev concentrations.
When the ground dries!
At one point Trump called out Ze for his propaganda!
Watch the 10 minutes closely! The fireplace was cold, it was February!
Trump met Ze at the driveway expressed dismay about the running suit!
Mineral deal was top cover to protect US investments already in the red.
RF will get restored relations and sanctions lifted as part of any talk of peace conference.
US remains agreement incapable! As entangling as the ancien regime of the EU/UK
proper: Banderists, Banderism …
between the so-called “Orange Revolution” and the “Euromaidan”.
This was a joint operation, with USA, James Bond (UK), Germany, Poland over a decade. Probably with assessments already from end 90’s
Wikipedia does not agree:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banderite
Also now a verb in current use as in ‘Send them to Bandera’ meaning wipe them out.
Wikipedia does not agree
oh well like an English written Wikipedia notice on History specially closer times and related Politics, has any expertise or authority.
You know that Wikipedia is one of the vector of American tentative at mind shapping?
And most articles about Ukraine have been rewritten in the last 15 years.
It is a point of detail here somehow, but still, In European languages it has been since ever Banderist, like Communist, Socialist, Capitalist, Jihadist, etc, and the ideology in “-ism”.
In Russian, adjectives follow another kind of suffix, and yes in this case бандеровец.
(We were taught about Banderism in the 80’s when I was in highschool)
Craig Murray – however well before Gaza – suggested that Trump might not be such a bad choice and might turn out to be a decent president. Argueing that voters should give him a chance. Because anything would be better what then was the insanity of Biden´s cabinet and that Trump´s view of the world was the one that made most sense under the circumstances. Musk, DOGE and Co. were not on the horizon then however. Still I found that an important comment by someone whose integrity one can admire and on first sight would not strike as a defender of a NY multimillionaire, playboy and TV celebrity.
He may go out like Il Duce.
And the even bigger question: how long can Ukraine keep up the fight? There are two levels to this question: will the Trump Administration take quick and punitive action, such as cutting off access to intel, such as satellite data, and comms, most of all Starlink to force a Zelensky resignation or ouster? A wee problem is that two of the top pretenders to the throne, former general Valerii Zaluzhny and Petro Poroshenko, are also strongly anti-Russian and will probably do their best to sandbag a deal.
the favored successors to Z are Zaluzhny and Budanov. “Cholocateshenko” certainly not, he is “burnt” by is former presidency. Budanov was formed by CIA. Zaluzhny lives since his depart from army, in UK, where he is prepared by the Brits to some possible role.
USA as just a provider of intel and comms is an euphemism. It is USA that does strikes on infrastructures inside Russia, like refineries.
USA is shooting at Russia since day one, just by putting the guns in the hands of Ukrainians and telling where to aim at and in many cases directly. HIMARS are not operated by Ukrainians but by US personal on mock leaves or retired ones volunteering. What happened is that Russians hit some command centers with American, British, German, French, etc, officer and operators.
Ukraine was pumped up with weapons under Trump 1st presidency. Donbas had three successive defensive lines with a mesh of strongholds. This big military devices was at same time a potential launching ramp and base for a major offensive on Donestk and Lugansk. This started by mid-february 2022. Russia has now taken down the two first layers, and is grinding the third.
It would be an embarrassment for USA that the plan of retaking Donbas didn’t work.
It is hard to see what Trumpetits are doing:
– they may want to get rid of the problem in a noisy comm op, claiming good faith and pass the problem entirely to EU. So war keeps going but they could say it is not them
– some believe it is all a show, a try to lure Russians. Pathetic one.
– it may be possible that these people around Trump are really wanting to modify native American imperialism, but oligarchies are not going to let it go easily.
the key point is that all haws, Democrats and Republican, seem convinced by the assessments of William Burns, that Russians will not go nuclear. In 2022 some highly placed political figures in Russia were telling that if they go nuclear UK will be the first target. UK is a small country with dense demographics and enough far away (air propagation of radiations). Easy to wipe. At same time it would be a warning to USA, to stop. Medvedev stressed that nuclear weapons will be used sometime because they were used already. Americans had no problem when wiping Hiroshima. On the contrary, they found it so nice that did it again in Nagasaki. Americans. So?
Scott Ritter has said every war game between the US and Russia in a real conflict does go nuclear. So relying on Burns contradicts other assessments. Of course, it may be these games had the US lobbing the first nuke (we act as if tactical nukes somehow don’t count as much, the Russians do NOT see it that way).
Trump has a compelling reason to walk away from this war, but he seems to believe he can still help end it through negotiated peace as a mediator. However, his noble cause is undermined by his—and his administration’s—lack of understanding of the motivations of the involved parties, their goals, the balance of power between Russia and the pro-Ukraine bloc, and the fact that, even in the best-case scenario, reaching an agreement would take many months.
Trump told Zelensky that he (Zelensky) doesn’t hold the cards, but the truth is that Trump doesn’t hold the right cards either—at least not the kind needed to end the war quickly. His options are either to walk away (the sooner, the better) or to attempt and fail to resolve the conflict diplomatically. So far, he seems inclined to pursue the latter option. The question remains: will he have the wisdom to walk away sooner rather than later?
It’s all coming apart. Starmer says that the Europeans will propose a “peace plan” to Trump, putting in place a coalition of the willing as peacekeepers, and it will need a US backstop.
https://www.ft.com/content/1370b3e8-c3b5-4733-8a15-4b397d483e45
If that’s truly what comes out of the meeting in London tomorrow, the unraveling will be quick.
“What about ‘no’ don’t you understand?”
I think we agree on that! I mean the Europeans have absolutely nothing to offer…
Or in the famous words of Andrei Gromyko, aka Mr No, нет.
Politicians shouting at each other in public is never a good look – people in positions of power should keep these conversations private, just releasing the bullet points, not the petty details
Anyone else remember how the USA lest Vietnam, Cambodia, Afghanistan, Syria etc? There is still the danger that there will be a large group of Ukrainian people and supporters who will want revenge for this betrayal of their nation
All the comments are about if Ukraine should still be supported or not, it all ignores how the war started – Blinken said Russia was too weak to attack Ukraine and they were cowards and the US was arming Ukraine since the Maidan takeover, paid for by the USA.
Europe and its media are now obsessed with how they can take advantage of US running away but the result for Ukraine will be the same. The UK is talking of supporting with more weapons (UK can’t afford healthcare, schools, food for kids, increasing homelessness) but it is offering a ‘loan’, to ‘sell on credit’ US weapons – anyone who has taken apart a European weapon will know how much is US in origin, from electronics to metals
Scheerpost quoting THE GUARDIAN on Trumps people warning Z beforehand:
“The Guardian recently provided some inside accounts into what exactly transpired this weekend regarding the heated confrontation that sent Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Oval Office meeting with the Trump administration spiraling downhill. The Trump White House blamed Zelenskyy for the “meltdown” that occurred, and claimed that they had communicated their position to Ukraine beforehand, and senators also advised the Ukrainian President to “not litigate the issue of wanting stronger security guarantees to [Trump’s] face.”
https://scheerpost.com/2025/03/02/trump-officials-enraged-at-zelenskyy-for-ignoring-advice-before-meeting/
Aaron Maté´s latest:
Zelensky’s hostility to peace triggers White House meltdown
Long rewarded by Washington and NATO for undermining diplomacy with Russia, Zelensky grew confrontational — and told outright falsehoods — when Donald Trump and JD Vance told him to make peace.
https://www.aaronmate.net/p/zelenskys-hostility-to-peace-triggers
Trump and Vance wanted Zelensky to say that he was open to peace negotiations, but they did not consider Zelensky’s position. Even if he wanted to, he could not agree with them on this because he is surrounded by his fanatical neo-nazi circle in Ukraine who would view anything like that as capitulation and tantamount to treason. It would easily set him up to be deposed. So it was a diplomatic error on the part of Trump and Vance. Their negotiations with Russia could possibly go a similar way, given that Trump expects everyone to acquiesce to his demands and doesn’t take kindly to those who don’t.
Thank you everyone! This article and especially the comments and links are the single greatest one stop shopping for how we got to where we are now in this conflict. Thank you everyone!