Most of you by now have heard of the epic row in the Oval Office on Friday, with Trump and Vance becoming increasingly heated over Zelensky refusal to fall in line with Administration plans, from saying he needed security guarantees in order to sign the Ukraine “minerals deal” to disagreeing with the Trump position that negotiating with Putin to end the war was a good idea, to even disputing Trump’s repeated claim that the US had spent more on Ukraine than the EU had (the charts in this Financial Times article support Zelensky’s claims).
For a quick review, Matt Taibbi has a transcript of the key ten minutes of the press conference; you can find the full fifty minute video here.
Some contend that if Zelensky had handled himself better, the simmering conflict between Trump and Zelensky would not have led to this apparent fatal rupture. I beg to differ.
The yelling match reflected irreconcilable position on what each side regarded as core issues. Thought experiment: if Zelensky were to grovel to Trump and say he was now willing to sign the minerals pact, do you think Trump would say no? He’d relish in his power play having gotten Zelensky to acknowledge Trump as the big dog and making a visible concession (admittedly, Trump would ask Zelensky for more, as in a commitment to negotiate with Russia, which Zelensky would find a way to renege on in due course). Even if Trump is saying otherwise now, he holds no fixed stances. But the bigger point is that it is Zelensky that would not proceed with the minerals pact and certainly would not cooperate with negotiations with Russia. So what could happen in an alternate universe is moot.
I also have difficulty with the claim that Trump and Vance intended to force this rupture. They were muscling, yesiree bob, to get Zelensky to execute the minerals pact. Let us not forget what had already transpired: Zelensky had offered Ukraines’s wealth, first to the Biden Administration, later to Trump and in his Victory Plan, in return for security guarantees. Trump then tried to outrageously retrade the offer by insisting that the purported $350 billion the US had spent on Ukraine (the Wall Street Journal, among others, challenges this claim) should be repaid, when that support was never in the form of loans. Should Taiwan worry about similarly getting a payment demand from Trump? And let us not forget that the US put up Ukraine to this fight via helping arm and train its forces during the Minsk and Minsk 2 duplicities and having Boris Johnson act as our emissary (confirmed later by Samantha Power in her book) to scupper the Istanbul peace deal…with US and NATO and NATO member state leaders promising with one voice that we’d support Ukraine for as long as it took?
In other words, even though Zelensky was never a sympathetic or admirable character (if you were paying attention), Western behavior in this conflict has been reprehensible.
If you review the past week or so of news, it shows clearly that Zelensky was not keen about going to Washington. Alexander Mercouris argues, and it’s certainly plausible, that the desperate and deluded Macron-Starmer tag team had convinced themselves that they could get Trump to guarantee the security of UK and French “reassurance” forces, even though Russia is maintaining no way, no how will they tolerate any NATO (or other) forces in Ukraine ex the approval of the UN Security Council, where Russia has a veto. The scheme was then after getting these commitments from Trump, Zelensky would firm up the arrangement via accepting the minerals pact. Boris Johnson was promoting it as providing de facto security to Ukraine via increased presence; some have speculated that the former Prime Minister also talked to Zelensky, but I have yet to see any evidence.
However, despite his reluctance, Zelensky decided to make the trip, making clear that his agreeing to the minerals pact was not a given. He said he needed to hear what Trump had to say about security guarantees. So Zelensky has not budged from his original position, although he might have been willing to accept verbal assurances (as if those were credible from the US in light of “not one inch further east” and the aforementioned support of Ukraine “for as long as it takes”). But given the parlous state of Ukraine and Zelensky’s rule, any confidence-builder might be adequate.
There are similarly rumors that the disastrous meeting was in part due to bad American advice to Zelensky:
Blinken, Rice, Nuland, and Vindman conference call with Zelenskyy on the flight to DC advising him to "stand strong" and "be tough" and "don't let Trump bully you"
seems to have backfired 😂😂😂— Peachy Keenan (@KeenanPeachy) February 28, 2025
Regardless, if you look at the transcript, Trump and Vance resorted to the highly irregular device of having a private discussion and then calling the press in for a press conference. Trump recently used the same trick with the King Abdullah of Jordan. The King had apparently not been told of the press conference plan, where Trump told reporters that the King had agreed to his Gaza ethnic cleansing plan and would be taking in Palestinians. Abdullah did not confront Trump but as soon as he could, issued firm denials of any such consent.
Trump in his opening remarks, in which Trump talks up both the minerals deal and his talks with Putin, tells Zelensky that “It’s something that you want and that he wants” and that Zelensky will be joining him and others in a lunch meeting and then will sign the minerals pact. So consistent with widespread expectations before the meeting, Trump was prepared to have Zelensky sign on.
Zelensky immediately focused on the outtrade:
ZELENSKY: Thank you so much, Mr. President. Thank you for invitation. And really I hope that this document, first document will be first step to real security guarantees for Ukraine, our people, our children. I really count on it. And of course we count that America will not stop support. Really for us, it’s very important to support and to continue it. I want to discuss it with details for them during our conversation and of course the infrastructure or security guarantees.
The wheels come off as Zelensky also immediately pushes back on the idea that Putin can be trusted even as Trump doubles down, and also gets into a spat over Trump’s insistence that the US provided more support than Europe. As Taibbi noted:
“25 times [Putin’s] broken cease fire,” Zelensky said.
“He never broke to me,” snapped Trump, realizing the meeting had moved into deeper water.
From there it was obvious the two sides had fundamentally different understandings. Trump and Vance clearly saw the minerals deal as a necessary precursor to making a security deal with Putin. Zelensky meanwhile began talking as if he intended to keep fighting with or without American support. One can call that brave, but once Trump and Vance realized they’d invited a throng of international media to have Zelensky call them out on their home ice, the mood turned ugly fast.
But remember, even though this getting this ugly in public was clearly not necessary, a crack-up of some sort seemed inevitable. As Simplicius pointed out:
Firstly, let’s again mention the epistemic three-way impasse that has recently surfaced, which we spoke about last time: Ukraine doesn’t want diplomacy without a security guarantee; US wants a ceasefire before major deals with Russia; Russia doesn’t want a ceasefire without its own security guarantees. Despite what went on today, Trump only yesterday appeared to demonstrate his unrealistic understanding concerning the war. He stated in a press conference not only that he would try to get Ukraine as much of its land back as possible, but—and this is the big one—that he thinks Ukraine might be able to get some of its coastline back:
Granted, he may just be egging the press on, and putting on appearances for the sake of playing the peacemaker. Think about it: what coastline could Ukraine possibly get back? The Azov Sea, which would necessitate returning Mariupol or Melitopol, parts of Kherson and Zaporozhye? Or does he actually think Russia could give back Crimea itself?….
And for that matter, we absolutely must include these next essential exhibits into the evidence. Just yesterday, Lavrov again decisively put the final word on the matter of ceasefires when he explained that there will absolutely be no ceasefires “along the current contact line”
I’m inclined to think that the bizarre Trump mention of retaking Ukraine coast was to throw a bone to Zelensky. But that throwaway would have been deeply alarming to the already distrustful Russians.
Confirming Simplicius, progress in the US-Russia talks is slow. The expert had an over 6 hour second meeting in Riyadh. From the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs website:
In accordance with the instructions from the foreign policy leadership of both countries, the parties meticulously explored avenues to overcome numerous irritants inherited from previous US administrations. Joint measures were agreed upon to ensure the unfettered mutual financing of Russian and US diplomatic missions’ operations and to establish appropriate conditions for diplomats to fulfil their official duties.
The consultations also addressed issues related to Russian diplomatic properties in the United States, with a particular focus on the restitution of six premises unlawfully seized between 2016 and 2018. The necessity of achieving tangible outcomes to foster conditions conducive to improving bilateral relations, in the interests of both nations, was underscored. In particular, the American side was encouraged to consider the restoration of direct air service between the two countries.
So the only addition to the agenda was restoring flights between Russia and the US. In other words, the bigger issues have yet to even be tabled, let alone a process for considering them to be devised.
What happens now? One popular point of view is that Zelensky needs to quit sooner rather than later. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson has found a new high register in her denunciation of Zelensky in the wake of his White House debacle. For instance:
With his outrageously rude behaviour during his stay in Washington, Zelensky re-affirmed his status of the most dangerous threat to the international community as an irresponsible figure that can stir up a big war. It must be clear to everyone that this kind of attacks coming from a terrorist leader are quite unambiguous.
This cynical individual will stoop to anything in pursuit of his goals and is obsessed with preserving the power he has usurped. This is why he has destroyed the opposition, built a totalitarian state and is ruthlessly sending millions of his fellow citizens to their deaths. Under the increasingly deteriorating political conditions, this figure is unable to show a sense of responsibility and is therefore obsessed with continuing the war and rejects peace, which means death to him.
Unprecedented in the history of international politics and diplomacy, a dressing down given to Zelensky by the US president in the White House is also indicative of the political weakness and extreme moral degradation of the European leaders who continue to support the maniac leader of the Nazi regime who has lost touch with reality.
But I am not sure how feasible it is for Zelensky to make a clean exit even if he wanted to. Remember that he got over 70% of the vote in 2019 and ran on a platform of normalizing relations with Russia. But my impression was that before then, the US neocons and friends had gotten Banderites into key positions in government, way in excess of their representation in society or the Rada (1% to 2% as of then). I recall seeing Chrystia Freeland interview George Soros a couple of years before that. Soros bragged that 15% of the people in the Ukraine government (by that he meant the Administration, not the legislature) had either personally gotten Open Society grants or had an immediate family member how had. Now getting an Open Society grant does not necessarily mean being a Banderite, but it does mean being Russia hostile. And recall also that the Banderite in the post-Maidan regime snagged positions in the internal policing-security apparatus, so they could use force. It’s not hard to imagine that the Zelensky reversal was due to threats to his safety. Other politicians had been badly beaten and at least one had been killed.
Even assuming the Ukraine government is coming to recognize that its goose is cooked, the Banderites may well be in Fuhrer-bunker mode. Russia has promised war crimes trials. Russia would likely go to some lengths to hunt down prominent neo-Nazi figures. Zelensky has to assume the walls have ears as far as his Banderite minders are concerned, save perhaps when he can meet foreign officials in private. And the Banderites have an escalatogical bent, so they might prefer to ride on a white horse into the flames rather than go to Canada, get plastic surgery, and hide out with Galicians.
In the meantime, just three hours ago, Zelensky put up a tweetstorm that indicates he is persisting as best he can in his current course:
We are very grateful to the United States for all the support. I’m thankful to President Trump, Congress for their bipartisan support, and American people. Ukrainians have always appreciated this support, especially during these three years of full-scale invasion. pic.twitter.com/Z9FlWjF101
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) March 1, 2025
Zelensky is to meet with Keir Starmer. The Independent reports that the Europeans are trying to use the rift to worm their way in:
Donald Trump “needs to sort out this mess as much as Zelensky”, Sir Malcolm Rifkind has told The Independent, warning that the US president “cannot deliver a deal unless Zelensky agrees”.
Backing Sir Keir Starmer’s approach to the situation so far, Sir Malcolm – who has previously served as both defence secretary and foreign secretary – said European leaders should help to mediate between the Ukrainian and US presidents.
And the even bigger question: how long can Ukraine keep up the fight? There are two levels to this question: will the Trump Administration take quick and punitive action, such as cutting off access to intel, such as satellite data, and comms, most of all Starlink to force a Zelensky resignation or ouster? A wee problem is that two of the top pretenders to the throne, former general Valerii Zaluzhny and Petro Poroshenko, are also strongly anti-Russian and will probably do their best to sandbag a deal.
Or will it assume that no arms shipments and bad press will do the trick and lead to even more desertions and refusals of orders?
In the meantime, Zelensky has many backers, even if they aren’t in a position to do him much good. A few of ample examples:
This isn't about Zelenskyy, a patriot and hero. This is about an American administration penetrated and compromised by America's enemies.
— David Frum (@davidfrum) March 1, 2025
This is utterly repulsive!
Trump and Vance just tried to humiliate Zelensky live on American TV, smugly demanding gratitude while openly mocking him like playground bullies counting favors. My respect for Zelensky—and my embarrassment as an American—just surged off the charts.… pic.twitter.com/0C4d03PDmi
— Brian Krassenstein (@krassenstein) February 28, 2025
Another view:
⚡️🇬🇧🇺🇦British soldier has a message for the world from the Ukrainian frontline: pic.twitter.com/N1UAo4jLSi
— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) March 1, 2025
If this is bona fide, it says that some in Ukraine do not want to give up despite the high cost.
So this is not over until the fat lady signs. And despite all the high drama, that has yet to happen.
100% Kayfabe
Yes,that is Brian Berletics take on this episode. He thinks it is all orchestrated kayfabe. The plan is designed to hand responsibility for the Ukraine project to Europe, and fool Russia into freezing the conflict. The US then focuses on China while rearming Ukraine behind the veil of its cutouts in Europe. Domestically Trump can pretend to be the peacemaker and be seen as getting the US out of a bad deal.
Why “pretend”? If the war stops then he would be a peacemaker if he had anything to do with it.
Because the “peace” is a ruse just like Minsk 1 &2. A stalling measure to freeze the conflict on US terms and regroup to try again when they have another chance. The policy to weaken Russia hasn’t changed.
But that’s in the realm of speculation. If Trump did pursue such a course he would be giving comfort to the Bidenistas and Europeans who he seems to despise. It’s hard to see what he and his primary supporters would get out of it but then we don’t know everything which ids the issue here isn’t it?
Personally I think Trump wants to bring Russia in from the cold which would be the greatest possible revenge on the political factions–Dem and Repub–who have been his greatest enemies. This is someone who paints “Trump” in giant letters on the side of his plane. Don’t underestimate the ego factor here. Zelenski tried to confront his vanity. Starmer soothed it with a royal invite and Putin says “I will be happy to meet with Donald.” Putin is a lot smarter than Z.
While I generally like Berletic, he is outside his area of expertise on this one and it shows. He should stick to arms, military capabilities, and NGO funding.
He is too fond of seeing things as more controlled and controllable than they are.
Did you miss the Munich Security Conference? Did Berletic? The US ALREADY handed the responsibility for Project Ukraine over to Europe. The only question was how quickly they cut of what little was left of the money and weapons dripfeed, and if they continued to provide low-cost support, like intel and comms, so as to have some itty bitty bit of leverage in talks with Russia.
The problem was and is dropping Ukraine like a hot potato = no leverage with Russia in peace talks. I have repeatedly said they will fail due to well-warranted Russian distrust of the US, but Trump is really invested in getting some sort of agreement done that he can claim is a peace deal.
The peculiar part here was Trump latching onto the Ukraine minerals deal. That to me looked like Trump in his “all tactics and no strategy” mode. Trump likes having/creating as many options as possible since he thinks having the maximum freedom of operation is best.
But options are not free!
Here, the minerals deal would CONCEIVABLY allow him to get more funding from Congress for Ukraine (Lindsay Graham was already hyperventilating along those lines), which would give him leverage over Russia by looking like the US was not committed to a fast exit path, that it could drag things out longer. Trump has an insane need to be the dominant party. The fact that he is failing to get Russia to agree quickly to anything has to be driving him nuts.
Good opinion from Yves. Russians hedged their position well when insisting that first US must normalize diplomatic relations with Moscow. If that doesn’t progress then there is no talk on UKR peace and strategic weapons control where the US is on the hook (no hypersonic weapons, $1trillion to modernize silo based missiles, Chinese weapons getting better and more numerous). Progress in current US-Russia talks is slow, there is no chance to achieve anything to reach Easters cease fire in Ukraine and May 9 peace deal. The only option for Trump to save his face is to put the blame on Zelenski. And that was the circus show we witnessed on Friday in White House.
Can Yves or the commentariat help me clarify something? I was under the impression that the mineral deal was mutually exclusive with a peace deal. If US citizens are required to “dig, dig, dig” those beautiful “rare” earths, than that would suggest enduring military/financial support for Ukraine (and thus prolong the war). However, Matt Taibbi, in his “Mr. Zelensky Goes to Washington” article says that “Trump and Vance clearly saw the minerals deal as a necessary precursor to making a security deal with Putin.”
So is the mineral deal desired by Putin as well? I mean, is there some gentleman’s agreement that the mineral deal with benefit both the US and Russia? How is the mineral deal a precursor to a peace agreement with Russia?
I read it not quite the same as you did. Trump was all over the map. He did imply the digging would be after the war was over but then he talked about mineral as security, as in Russia would not dare attack with Americans working in Ukraine to that degree, and therefore that could stand as a de facto security guarantee, which does not necessarily mean the conflict is over but “frozen” or at a much lower level.
I take the minerals deal differently with respect to Russia, that it’s a way to gain some bargaining leverage where now Trump has none.
Putin would not want a minerals deal. Russia has made four oblasts part of Russia. The US has not recognized that Russian claim. You’d have disputes over those rights.
I agree with this analysis of Berletic. I understand why he is wary of accepting a genuine American reorientation away from Europe and Project Ukraine, but I do think this is what Trump is after in his own bumbling way. Trump’s mistakes here are related to what he will need to do to get Russia to agree to any lasting peace; he will either figure this out or Russia will continue the SMO until it comes to completion.
Russians know all of this and Team Trump knows the Russians know. And if I read Hegseth correctly the understanding of RU military supremacy to some extent has pierced US intelligence by now. If Trump doesn´t want project Ukraine to blow up later during his presidency he has to put it onto firm ground now. And that might take a lot of time. And the Russians if wanting to increase pressure on Europe to comply, which so far they have not, have enough additional leverage (additionally to Trump´s threats). If Trump and Vance intend to found an “era” of new conservatism they have to make the longterm decisions the Dems never were willing or capable of making.
Then why would Trump have tried cornering Zelensky into signing the minerals agreement? That gives the US an economic interest in Ukraine surviving. It is at odds with Trump’s pretense that he is going to be the guy in the middle who brokers a deal between Putin and Zelensky.
cornering Z on the minerals to T appears to be the easiest and most obvious of offers for Z to sign. Everybody understands it. It can be sold to all sides. So why not? But the minerals are eventually just a means to a political end. If that aint work something else might. Like change of personnel. With the caveats you mention above.
Might one possible reason be to leverage the seized assets? (I think I read that idea here a few days back) Would the minerals deal be worth anything when it comes to reparations?
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I think I will wait a few days while Europe absorbs the implications. As I understood the Starmer and Macron visits that les up to Zelensky’s, Europe sought assurances that the US would remain engaged in the conflict, and both failed.
I see a parallel to the economy. Bessent commented in a Bloomberg interview yesterday that Trump saw the current recession signs as holdover from Biden, and this would be Trump’s economy in 9 to 12 months. In both cases, Trump may want to front load the bad news with an eye to improving conditions by the end of his term.
Worth noting: Trump mentioned troop losses of a couple of thousand a week. Might be a sign he’s getting accurate intelligence.
“Blinken, Rice, Nuland, and Vindman conference call with Zelensky”
Wha? We’re still not rid of Blinken? Maybe the big blowup aimed at them more than Z.
Whatever is going on it seems that R2P is out and transactional is in. And on that basis it’s hard to see why we were ever in Ukraine in the first place other than the greedy desire of some well connected Wall Streeters for the “breadbasket of Europe.”
I do think it’s encouraging that WW3 was brought up in Trump’s argument with Zelenski. At least somebody is worrying about it. Nuclear war would be a transaction after which all of us would lose.
The Logan Act. Per wikipedia:
That caught my eye too. I’m not sure I understand. According to that Tweet, Z was on a conference call with those people on the way to this meeting? Really? Why????? Who exactly does he think is in charge? Biden? Those are Biden people. Why is he talking to them?
If this is true, and I’m Trump, I rip their security clearance immediately. And that would just be the start.
And get us out of that war – somehow.
Trump has already pulled Blinken’s security clearance. I don’t know about the rest but I am not sure they were at a level that they would continue after leaving office.
Another reason for Russia to take any negotiations really slowly.
Was that a verified communication, or was that just a satirical post? If the former it would be outrageous, especially from those four. But surely that didn’t actually occur, did it?
That’s my only positive observation of this entire situation- at least Trump acknowledges that nuclear annihilation is possible if escalation continues. I didn’t hear of any NATO leader acknowledge this previously.
The amount that it’s positive, however, is miniscule, as the blob still thinks it can start and win a nuclear war.
I had a similar reaction. The whole exchange seemed surreal, especially given the setting with the media observing – and Trump’s almost mischievous comment at the end about it being “great television.” But when he says “you’re gambling with WWIII” – twice – there seemed to be a brief jolt of serious realism in the whole production. It would be nice if that were the lede in all the various media reactions. But of course it wasn’t.
You forget that Trump did 14 years of reality TV. Vance was VC in his prior life. Zelensky is a coke addict. All also highly dominant. Put three together and multiple points of serious disagreement on matters they deem to be very important, and a train wreck is probable if not inevitable.
This about Trump, he holds no fixed stances, is a most important observation and extrapolates across his sphere of influence. IMO, he appears to prefer operating in a chaotic environment to the point where his strategy is to create chaos in order to manufacture quick consent and avoid giving his adversaries time to work up and then “market” an alternate strategy.
That’s a good observation. His very unpredictability is a weapon.
I poo-poo’d the “rare dirts” deal as being legally unenforceable and an illusory promise, however, it did serve a purpose of luring Zelensky into a trap.
See also the horrific “Ethnic cleansing for Kushner’s back nine in Gaza” proposal, which viewed through your framework, makes some sense as a way of breaking the glass and getting previously unimaginable scenarios “on the table.”
The key to dealing with Trump is to keep cool and not react in real time.
Trump repeatedly referred to “raw earth.” Not even Vance dared correct him.
I view the mineral deal as a face-saving measure to allow Trump to exit declaring victory. Unfortunately for those hoping for peace, Zelensky may not have an exit.
I am not going to dare to comment on the geopolitical situation. That is well out of my wheelhouse.
However, there is something else going on in the video of this interaction – a situation I am all too familiar with. Over my life, I have been invited to many parties with fellow attendees being the type of people in the Oval Office yesterday. Often cluster B personalities abound – especially narcissists and borderlines. When one goes to the mens’ room on a few of these parties, there has been a cocaine table ready to use by anyone. I am not saying that there is cocaine in the White House. I am saying, and it is all too familiar to me, that Zelensky had all the tics, behaviors, etc of being totally stoked on cocaine. It is as obvious as it can be if you have been around these people for any amount of time. In my experience, this can lead to people mumbling unfortunate and escalatory things under their breath ( just as Zelensky did yesterday calling JD Vance a bitch) – and things can get very belligerent very quickly. It can rapidly become a testosterone explosion. Cocaine tends to amplify dramatically the user’s innate personality – narcissists become absolutely obnoxious and unreasonable. They say and do things that are self harmful and instantly regretted. But all too often, especially if many onlookers are involved, permanent damage is done. Interestingly, I have seen many times the sober narcissist in the room attempt to de-escalate the situation. I saw in Trump’s behavior yesterday exactly what I have seen before so many times – a dominance trial followed by doing their best to talk people down and get everyone off the stage ASAP. If others in the room try to get involved, things may become more unfortunate. This de-escalation may take 5 minutes, it may take an hour depending on what all is going on. My guess is Trump in his world has been exposed to this situation many times and readily detected just like I did that he was dealing with a profoundly stoked up individual.
We as humans like to think we can control our innate behavior. Testosterone is just as much a thing in humans as it is in elks in rut. Add something like cocaine that amplifies it by 20 and you are soon dealing with real issues.
It is the curse of a doctor. I see patterns in everything and everyone I see. It becomes part of life. What was going on yesterday was just as clear as Biden’s dementia.
Yes, crystal clear to anyone who has been around cocaine imbibers. (which includes tea-totaler Trump).
The blood in the water was Z showing up to the (hallowed) White House in his Churchill-Mao black junta leader outfit. I’ll bet that the lack of a suit at the White House viscerally infuriated Trump.
Everyone can say what they will about Trump—–but he is always in a suit at working functions, even in summer on the campaign trail.
This line from the “Band of Brothers” TV series comes to mind…you “salute (respect) the rank, not the man (woman, office, hallowed ground, etc).”
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=salute+the+office+not+the+man+band+of+brothers
If Zelensky was thinking of insulting Trump by not wearing a suit, he probably never intended to agree with Trump in the first place.
https://www.axios.com/2025/02/28/trump-zelensky-oval-office-meeting-details
While I have no doubt you are correct (many others have speculated that Zelensky is a coke-head, you’d need some sort of chemical booster to stay as derangedly confident as he has for so long), there may be an additional layer to this drama.
Former CIA analyst and daily briefer to 3 presidents, Ray McGovern, said in his Friday afternoon session with Judge Napolitano that the CIA prepares psychological profiles of leaders with whom top officials interact. He said they would have been sure to have worked out how to press Zelensky’s buttons if they needed to. And per your observation, it has to be pretty easy to push an already amped up coke user into belligerence and paranoia.
Long term cocaine use on the brain:
Mini-strokes, or transient ischemic attacks
Seizures
Cerebral atrophy, or brain shrinking
Cerebral vasculitis, or inflammation of the blood vessels in the brain and/or spinal column
Hyperpyrexia, or exceptionally high fever from a disease that requires medical attention
Changes to prefrontal and temporal lobe functioning, which hurts problem-solving, decision-making, spatial understanding, vocabulary, attention, learning, and memory
Changes to neurotransmitter production and absorption, which can lead to mood disorders
Changes to movement, causing tremors, muscle weakness, changes in gait, etc.
It does seem he is on something. Wouldn’t be first time coke was in the White House.
Thanks Doc!
Could it be adderall?
Not really. He was doing the classic nose tics of recently snorted coke.
Thanks for mentioning this. I thought I was seeing something in Z’s face and demeanor when he became overly excited with T and Vance, but I brushed off the thought.
A detail —
The ‘British soldier has a message for the world from the Ukrainian frontline’ link from Simplicius at the end is a South African and not a British national, with 90-plus percent likelihood.
That accent is almost certainly a white South African’s. I say that with some familiarity since my mother was from Cape Town (her people being originally Ukrainian Jews who’d fled Odessa, ironically).
Also, his ‘God sees’ talk is off-beam. Brit fundamentalist Christians definitely exist, but their message is much more God’s love, etcetera, than this war talk, which would generally be repugnant to them.
Did you listen to the video in full? He says is South African but now presents himself as a Brit because he cannot stand South Africa’s position on Ukraine. The fault is in Simplicius’ sloppy labeling of the vid and not the clip itself. Although it is conceivable the speaker had it uploaded with the label to reinforce his stance.
As you say. I listened to it in full after I posted, having initially been struck by the first 20-30 seconds of that very distinct Afrikaner accent and the warlike God talk.
Just as (supposedly) Gettysburg wasn’t intended to be the place where the Confederacy would have their showdown w/the Union, it’s pretty amazing that Ukraine (of all places) is the hill on which the 50-year of the alliance of neo-conservatives and neo-liberals will make their stand.
Trump will win this (by happenstance rather than 4-d chess). Few care about Ukraine outside of the Beltway, NPR, or NYT.
>>> “….conference call with Zelenskyy on the flight to DC…”
presumably this was on Starlink or Iridium, and presumably both are NSA-accessible—even with “encryption”?
Wish I knew the answer now, versus having to wait 30 years before things get partially declassified.
though I doubt any any of the events were premeditated or “4-d chess.”
Unless he said it a second time, I thought Trump saying it was possible that Ukraine would get some territory back was just a conciliatory nothing that was in line with his instinct of not conceding a negotiation position up front. It didn’t seem like something he thought was remotely likely.
Observations:
1. In a war that has been visible through memes and public-relations stunts, even as a million soldiers have died in old-fashioned trench warfare, we are seeing something for the first time, in a sense. The gristly side of negotiations. In the past, this would have been done in a smoky room over cognacs. In the new over-media-ated era, Trump decided to play from strength — he perceives himself a showman.
2. What we are seeing is “sausage being made” in foreign relations. I have no doubt that other meetings in other countries at other times have been just as contentious. Imagine the dismantling of Hungary at Versailles. Here, Zelenskyy is the unlucky autumnal pig, and Trump is attaching the sausage casings to the grinder. Again, in a war fought on social media, we are seeing the unseemly finale on social media. Where it shouldn’t be. But it is.
3. I see two comments above: Kayfabe? I’m not so sure. One of the reasons is the presence of J.D. Vance. Trump is ensuring his succession. As of today (in this overly volatile time), J.D. Vance is the next president.
4. What does Trump want? He’s a real-estate tycoon. Let’s take this at face value. He wants the mineral rights and some kind of repayment for Joe Biden’s belligerent largesse. This is how things work in Trump’s world. We are not dealing with Franklin Delano Roosevelt anymore.
5. Vindman? Wow. That’s enlightening. Fortunately, Heather Cox Richardson has been channeling Vindman all these years.
6. When the Democratic Party / liberal elites turn Trump into the peacemaker, we are at the point where we truly must admit that the liberal elites are a pile of smoking rubble. Fine by me — I’m a leftist.
7. These maneuvers are enlightening,, as shown by the string of hallucinogenic twiXts above. I am also seeing this phenomenon on my BookFace feed: Liberals who want to fight to the last Ukrainian. The chickenhawkery is to be expected.
Scheerpost had a Scheer/ Ray McGovern dialog that–while too quick to assume a Nixon goes to China scenario–revolved around Scheer’s memories if that long ago event and how his liberal friends refused to give Nixon any credit because they hated Nixon. The insistence on personalizing everything is what makes the TDS-ers like Maddow as much cult as any sort of intellectual movement, and they find a not so distant mirror in the 60s/70s where the Kennedys were treated as martyred heroes without flaw and Nixon, with his Bebe Rebozo, as a desperately unhip boob and scoundrel. Making govt about glamor may be playing to the H’wood adjacent Dems’ strengths but it is also, like Hollywood, quite shallow.
“All about the PR” is a filibuster that doesn’t solve any of the world’s problems.
Vance’s comment about “campaigning for the opposition” was probably missed by most people but an extremely telling line
“So this is not over until the fat lady signs. And despite all the high drama, that has yet to happen.” – Yves Smith. Indeed. “He doesn’t have any cards.” – President Trump. Not entirely correct. Z is still getting US weapons and other military support. Time for Trump to do as he claims in supporting peace and cut off US military support. That will allow the natural order to return.
It’s been reported that US financial support for grid reconstruction was halted. The lights are being turned off literally and figuratively.
Or more likely, reduce funds bring pocketed by Ukraine officials.
I think a rewatch of the full clip pretty clearly shows the US intent was to get the agreement signed. Zelensky missteps started after Trump’s call for a final question from reporters, when he reacted to Vance touting Trump’s diplomacy over Biden’s chest thumping, and argued that Putin couldn’t be trusted. It looks to me like Zelensky chose to publicly press for more solid guarantees rather than to make his case privately.
Lindsey Graham said that Z was told that the plan was this agreement first, then further peace talks, and Graham said he didn’t think the US could work with Z after this. Rubio said Z could have signed five days ago but wanted to come to Washington. I think Z miscalculated badly and he should look to execute his exit plans. When you’ve lost Lindsey Graham…
I beg to differ with your comment at the end of your first para. It was Trump, not Zelensky, who called the presser. Leaders normally never do presser with two senior people from different countries unless something has been decided and both have agreed on the script or both are so well housebroken that they know how to mumble mumble and not say anything that will cause trouble. Neither was operative here.
Aside from the analysis presented in the article, let’s talk about how this appears to those who are watching it. First off of course, this makes really good TV. It hearkened back to The Apprentice, where Donald Trump is tough talking a subordinate and threatening to fire him if he doesn’t get with it. It makes Donald Trump look strong and in control, and a huge contrast to the last president. I think Donald Trump may be more popular in the rest of the world than people in the US realize. Especially after the embarrassment of Joe Biden.
Also not mentioned in this analysis is what may seem to the rest of the world as the most important part: when Trump says “You are killing your people, you are risking World War III”.
For instance, look at the subhead on the coverage from El Pais article:
https://elpais.com/videos/2025-02-28/el-tenso-momento-entre-trump-y-zelenski-en-el-despacho-oval.html
Making for really good TV has little to do with reality. I have no idea how this makes Trump look good to anyone except his hard core fans. Far from making Trump look tough, it makes him look unprepared and out of his depth. It might be one thing if this was in a vacuum. But against the backdrop of letting DOGE and Musk run roughshod over the federal government and firing thousands of people willy-nilly, it only cements the idea that Trump is again tripping over his own feet. While he’s staged things much better this time with a plan and people in place, he still has no strategy.
Adding to this picture are domestic concerns based on Musk’s actions (talk about someone on something), which are starting to create additional issues. Potential massive unemployment, GDP forecasts getting slashed, and increased dissention in the ranks. And the optics of veterans getting the shaft on multiple layers is hardly going to win Trump any accolades from conservates.
Trump’s popularity is akin to what W Bush received after 9/11 and is hardly based on Trump being a great statesman or leader. It also appears he’s handling his advantage about as well as Bush, frittering it away as quickly as he got it.
“Backing Sir Keir Starmer’s approach to the situation so far, Sir Malcolm – who has previously served as both defence secretary and foreign secretary – said European leaders should help to mediate between the Ukrainian and US presidents.”
So many sirs, so much hubris, so much greed, such limited touch with reality. Not only in Great Britain, but Continent-wide as well. Much noise to prepare the ground to spend 1 trillion euros in “rearming Europe to face the Russian threat.” That’s lots of commissions for the sponsors and full rice bowls for all kinds of lesser servants and hangers-on. Then again, there was the fact of hundreds of EU functionaries issuing the identically worded support on X for Zelensky shortly after the brouhaha in the Oval Office. It would be irresponsible not to consider the possibility that Zelensky conspired with our rapacious and deluded misleadership on this side of the pond to cause a scene. The purpose: conceivably to open the door for Euro “mediation” between Trump and Zelensky that the sirs wanted, and with that, to get the EU’s foot back in the door by trying to strong arm the US. And if that doesn’t work, well, there’s comes the ready made impetus to spend 1 trillion on war instead of on European populations. Because “Europe now stands alone as the shiny beacon of freedumb and democracy, and the US has also become the enemy.” This narrative has become de rigueur in mainstream Euro media this past couple of weeks.
In any case, the reactions in Europe don’t fill me with confidence about the emotional and intellectual capacity of our misleaders to face reality and to communicate honestly with us.
I have two boomer generation close relations with I being a (hard to say it but *middle-aged*, how did I get here!) dad of two young kids. They keep telling me that I’m anti-American, an isolationist, or just plain ignorant for my stance that I want this war to end ASAP, hopefully averting WWIII and having my kids live to adulthood (other impending disasters aside). They repeat, verbatim, all the empire propaganda in their arguments. I try to calmly explain the history of this situation going back to the break up of the Soviet Union (when I was all of 10 years old). They won’t hear of it. No willingness at all to challenge what MSNBC and their hero Rachel Maddow tells them. And these are two, smart, educated people. It just makes it all to clear to me how so many of our fellow Americans are completely incapable of critical thinking, whichever brand of corporate right/“left” media they follow. They won’t even accept the premise that maybe it’s a bad idea to be “poking the bear” against a nuclear armed power that can end life as we know it on earth.
I have been trying to find some simple primer, a document, web page, etc. that can at least lay out the history, from the assurances made to Russia by the west about no further NATO expansion east, up through the Maidan coup, and to where we are today. Something I can get them to read to at least try and understand the reality of the situation and my position. So far though, I haven’t found anything solid that would carry some sense of legitimacy for these folks in my life.
As a general tangent/aside…
I’m a leftist but would be perfectly happy with even the most mild, new deal dem type policies to try and put us back on track to livable country, protecting us non-wealthy inhabitants, etc. That’s the environment (old schools, new deal dems) I was raised in with my grandparents, back when I still believed being a “liberal” or democrat was a good thing. Now, both sides of the American political system just seem to want to spread misery all around. I guess my point is that as someone with two, young kids I feel existential dread for what they may have to experience in their lifetimes. I feel guilty that I’ve brought these two, sentient, innocent beings into a world that is crumbling.
I have been a long time reader but very rare commenter here. I generally struggle to put my thoughts into coherent posts in this type of venue. But I so much appreciate this site for allowing me to have a much more clear-minded view of the world even though sometimes I wish I could be blissfully unaware and ignorant of our realities.
Thank you to all, the authors, contributors, and commenters on this site for all the thoughtful discussion and information.
You mentioned “two, smart, educated people” who repeat the propaganda.
I am concerned that the American higher education system is educating the US elite to be what the indigenous Americans referred to as “smart, but not wise”.
I have asked a number of “educated” people to simply reflect about how the USA reacted to the installation of missiles in Cuba in the 1960’s and the similarity to NATO moving into Ukraine.
Instead, “Putin is a absolute dictator” or “Putin wants to annex Europe” is what I get in response.
In my view, while the USA higher education system is expensive, it fails to educate the foreign policy elite in any way other than “use the military, after all we spend so much on it”.
I want to move away from “let’s give war a chance” to more of a cooperative world, recognizing that the USA doesn’t always have the right answer.
If you have to approach a couple of bullies with your begging bowl out, looking for support, you must smile and nod your head no matter how angry their nasty comments and loud talk make you. Whatever the reason, Zelensky blew his chance. Maybe they were willing to give him a tiny concession that he could have taken home and exaggerated, or maybe he walked into a trap they had set for him. But this was not how to handle it.
See my discussion of the lack of overlap in bargaining positions. Zelensky was never going to get anything on terms he could accept.
Perhaps. But considering he would be returning home not to face bullies but Banderites, maybe he felt it was better to try and play the sympathy card for a world audience than return to an early “retirement”.
The aid was not given for Ukraine, but for its victory. Now that it is clear that Ukraine cannot win, the aid must be returned or some other price other than victory must be offered. I think this is how Trump thinks.
The very definition of tar baby: difficult problem that is only aggravated by attempts to solve it.
Not all that different than the US attempting to solve the Israel / Palestinian conflicts. Another tar baby.
But how bad are these tar babies really from the perspective of the US? In both cases, the US stands at arms distance as US proxies do the wet work. And we can perpetuate them in perpetuity (withstanding Ukraine’s ability to perpetuate its population). Vice versa, there’s always the tradition that we can just walk away from the conflicts.
Eenie meanie minie moe, catch a tiger by the toe, if he hollers let him go.
If you look at the gambits that Trump is putting out there in both cases, he’s going the opposite direction (to Steve Bannon’s aggravation in the case of the Ukraine conflict). They’re gambits to make the US more of a stakeholder in both “tar babies”. Not stakeholders on the side of perpetuating the war, but rather stakeholders in business. And not just a trivial business stakeholder but the dominant stakeholder or as dominant as Trump can make it – the US wants to own the business. From what I can tell, the gambit is make Ukraine and Gaza into US colonies. Not like Israel. But rather colonies which are focused on business instead of war or lebensraum. Colonies that would serve as PAX NEGOTIUM (business peace) and thereby serve as a buffer.
Well that’s my most generous interpretation. And obviously a difficult play in the Ukraine conflict as it requires Russia to trust the US as not using the buffer as a pretext for buying time for conflict. If it plays out this way in Gaza, let’s hope that the Gaza-as-US-colony doesn’t get created via ethnic cleansing and the US provincial governor there is more merciful on the Palestinians than Israel.
One thing I worry about long-term here is if the Ukraine war is wound down with Russia more or less getting what it wants, there are going to be a lot of very angry Ukrainians, including Azov types, now with battlefield experience. They are going to hold the US and Europe at least as responsible for their humiliation as Russia. The classic “stabbed in the back” narrative will be easy to fall into. Assuming Russia is not able to collect all of them, what are the chances of retaliatory terrorism?
The US (with help from its client states) has a poor record lately of proxy warriors turning against it. Obviously the Mujahiddeen->Taliban situation is not identical, but there are a lot of rhymes that draw one’s attention. How much weaponry intended for the war has been diverted? And to where? Western nations seem not to hesitate about Azov crossing their boarders for fundraising and propaganda purposes. It seems like a potential mess.
The only thing I’m not sure about here is how ideological Azov and friends really are, which I imagine will be a big part of how this plays out.
The Azov types will still have to be fed and housed.
Who will fund them?
And the USA, Europe, and the UK appear to be only increasing their surveillance of their populations, which may cause the Azov types to avoid much activity.
There may have been a similar cadre of angry Nazis after WWII who did not cause trouble after the war as Europe was occupied by rebuilding.
Azov may find fundraising difficult as Europe has its own economic issues.
⚡️🇬🇧🇺🇦British soldier has a message for the world from the Ukrainian frontline…
When he left the USA, Z flew straight to London.
Basically, when Starmer was in the USA, it wasn’t all about US back stop for “future peacekeeping” troops.
Dear Brit merc, you are misguided. Your cause is malarky to quote the Irish.
As to the 10 minutes meltdown in the Oval Office.
Ze obviously bridle at not being adored as he was with Biden! Maybe his handlers should not suffer from so much TDS.
What Trump said:
Not Obama or Biden.
Ukraine cannot defeat Russia, it is running out of bodies.
Trump is no longer buying the propaganda, the think tanks need to stop forcing a fiction.
Dying since last year is in vain for both sides.
Ze and the Rada are illicit.