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Links 4/5/2025

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The Wetness of Magic David Westabrook (Micael T)

The Dingo’s Fate Nomea (Anthony L)

The stagnation of physics aeon (Micael T)

A streaming brain-to-voice neuroprosthesis to restore naturalistic communication Nature. Micael T: “Jesus familyblogging Christ!!! Soon we will be forced to wear these so that we cannot even think in private without being heard and recorded.”

A Secret Baby and a Nazi Hospital: The Untold Mystery Upending an Artist’s Legacy Wall Street Journal (Anthony L)

#COVID-19/Pandemics

5 years after COVID shuttered houses of worship, many continue online services Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Just let the bird flu run its course, these crazy cats say Art Cullen (Robin K)

Climate/Environment

Arctic warming accelerates to seven times the global average, catastrophic damage “locked in” IntelliNews

Bigger than Texas: the true size of Australia’s devastating floods Guardian

China?

China’s KD-21 missile puts US carriers and bases at range Asia Times (guurst)

Trump tariff list names Taiwan as ‘country’ Euractiv

Fitch downgrades China’s sovereign debt over spending and tariffs Financial Times

Some Troubled Science Reporting at South China Morning Post Pekingology

India

India’s Subprime Bubble Grew 2,100%. Now a Bust Looms. Bloomberg

Who is Mykhailo Viktorovych Polyakov, man arrested for entering restricted North Sentinel Island? Hindustan Times (Micael T)

Africa

Zimbabwe’s Plan to Drop the Dollar Is Faltering on ZiG Crunch Bloomberg

Sahel juntas drive new era in mineral extraction DW

South of the Border

The Fourth Transformation:The political economy of Claudia Sheinbaum’s popularity David Adler, Vanessa Romero Rocha, Michael Galant (Robin K)

European Disunion

Overextended: The European Disunion at a Crossroads Wolfgang Streeck, American Affairs (Anthony L)

Exclusive: Germany funds Eutelsat internet in Ukraine as Musk tensions rise Reuters (Micael T)

Macron calls on Europe to suspend investment in US after Trump tariff shock France24

Old Blighty

Russell Brand charged with rape and sexual assault BBC

Israel v. The Resistance

LIVE: Israeli attacks kill, injure 100 children each day in Gaza – UN Aljazeera

Israel’s war on aid workers Stephen Semler

U.S. Strikes in Yemen Burning Through Munitions With Limited Success New York Times

Mohammad Marandi, Larry Wilkerson & Chas Freeman on Middle East Erupts: Iran Challenges Ultimatum Dialogue Works, YouTube

New Not-So-Cold War

The Enemy Within Scott Ritter

Russia formally declared “national security threat to Britain” International Affairs (Micael T)

Germany deploys troops to Russia’s doorstep for first time since the Nazis RT (Micael T)

General Cavoli’s Schizophrenia on Ukraine Larry Johnson

Do not call Putin until he agrees to truce, Trump’s inner circle warns Telegraph

THE NEWS THAT WAS FIT TO PRINT YESTERDAY DOESN’T FIT TODAY Patrick Armstrong (Kevin W)

Imperial Collapse Watch

What if Trump’s behavior isn’t just personal madness? Rebelion via machine translation (Micael T)

Abbott Baby Formula Factory Is Using Unsanitary Practices, Workers Say ProPublica (Robin K)

The Good Society Department Nomea (Micael T)

Trump 2.0

Trump Burger Is Opening Texas Locations in Houston, Kemah, and Cypress Eater Houston. resilc: “New meaning to “eat shit and die” slur………”

* * *

Trump’s Tariffs Are More Spectacle Than Strategy Waleed Shahid (Jeff W)

World trade war escalates as China strikes all US imports with 34 percent tariff Politico (Kevin W)

China hit brakes on TikTok deal after Trump announced wide-ranging tariffs, AP source says Associated Press (Kevin W)

Economic bullying benefits no one – this is a historical conclusion Global Times Editorial

Liberation and Its Discontents Council for Foreign Relations. When the CFR is comparatively sane, you know it’s bad.

* * *

‘Tariffs are a ‘black swan event’ and ‘a debacle of epic proportions’ for the global auto industry, a leading analyst has warned This is Money

As Trump’s tariffs take effect Stellantis announces thousands of layoffs in Canada, Mexico and US WSWS. Micael T: “So it begins… any monkey can fire people to ‘do something’ about the stock-price. There are a lot of monkeys out there so a lot of people will be fired.

* * *

The Folly of Trump’s Trade War Finn Andreen

Trump tariffs latest: ‘There will be blood’: Biggest bank in US warns of global recession risk Sky

Trump’s tariff onslaught headed for self-defeating recession Asia Times (Kevin W)

* * *

Judge orders US government to return man who was mistakenly deported to El Salvador by end of Monday CNN. Trump response that he was now in El Salvador, therefore nothing they could do, was disgraceful. A few bribes would get this solved pronto.

The Pursuit of Chaos John Robb (Micael T). Hhhm.

The compromise that might make risking a third Trump term worth it Washington Post. Be careful what you wish for.

US Supreme Court lets Trump cut teacher training grants in DEI-related case Reuters

Democrat Death Wish

Democrats’ deference to Biden was a disaster. They still haven’t learned their lesson Norman Solomon, Guardian. resilc: “The one certainty for ANYTHING in USA USA is the DNC never learns. they only adapt their donation marketing planzzzzz.”

Our No Longer Free Press

A Response to a Member of Congress Matt Taibbi (DLG). A defamation suit v. a member of Congress! Pass the popcorn.

The World Majority’s Social Media versus Data Colonialism Global Times (Micael T)

Groves of Academe

Detained student in US claims university laid groundwork for his ‘abduction’ Anadolu Agency

Mr. Market Has a Nervous Breakdown

10-year Treasury yield falls to lowest level since October after Trump unveils sweeping tariffs CNBC (Kevin W)

Hedge funds hit with steepest margin calls since 2020 Covid crisis Financial Times. Sudden drops in the price of gold would be a tell of severity. In the 2007-2008 crisis, when gold was vastly less popular than now, you’d see sudden drops in the price of gold. That was pretty clearly a hedgie dumping gold as his least distressed asset to cover a margin call.

AI

AI Beat the Turing Test by Being a Better Human Psychology Today (Dr. Kevin)

Microsoft unveils AI assistant with ‘memory’ Financial Times (Kevin W)

AI will never be able to write like me Ken Chung (Micael T)

Antitrust

Antidote du jour (via):

And a bonus (Chuck L):

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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156 comments

  2. Terry Flynn

    Re physics. I find it darkly amusing that for so many years a criticism of economics was that it had “physics envy” but now we have now inverted and cosmological physics exhibits traits that can best be described as “economics envy”

    Watch Sabine on YouTube to see her visible frustration and even worse, deflation in her mood regarding what’s going on in physics. I know some regulars on here watch her and are similarly concerned.

    Reply ↓
    1. Unironic Pangloss

      we’ve had 20 years of potentially brilliant physics shunted away (by the educational system, by parents, by money, by the $*(@*@$ subpar experience of being a PostDoc/PhD student) to become high-frequency traders, emoji filter programmers, and Pixar animation developers.

      I imagine that affected Physic’s zeitgeist

      Reply ↓
      1. Afro

        Though it’s almost certainly the case that sending so many smart people into finance is wasteful, there’s probably no viable society where every student that enters physics graduate school becomes a professional physicist. It’s about as likely as every aspiring artist becoming an actual artist, for example.

        Reply ↓
    2. Lieaibolmmai

      The stagnation comes from a lack of creativity and spirituality.

      What I have come to understand, talking and listening to some of the more creative physicists: There are no particles, everything is a wave. So they can smash all there particles and we will forever see smaller and smaller particles, forever!

      The “Everything is a Q-Wave” Interpretation of Quantum Physics

      Even consciousness is a wave.

      Consciousness is the collapse of the wave function

      Since we could not navigate the world seeing everything as a wave, our brain “collapses waves” into a single point with the highest probability. Our brain is a quantum wave collapsing device.

      Seeing the would like this would change humanity, which is why we still believe in the duality.

      Reply ↓
      2. GramSci

        It is no longer surprising that matter might be an ephemeral ‘collapsed’ state of wavespace. I find more useful, on a human scale, to think of the brain as processing resonances. (Cf. e.g., Grossberg’s Adaptive Resonance Theory). Like AI, but with ‘free will’ (shudder, we are a dangerous species ).

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    3. Afro

      Sabine Hossenfelder does a lot of engagement farming, whereby she criticizes the work of scientists left and right without necessarily understanding what she’s criticizing it proposing alternatives. She’s good at engagement farming, but her arguments are often quite weak. I stopped paying attention to her after she criticized dark matter.

      There are in fact many physics mysteries — where here I’m referring to fundamental physics and cosmology — where some cracks appear in our models, some progress is being made, and people are suggesting interesting experiments and tests. The big question isn’t whether we’ll have substantial progress in the next hundred years, but how much of any of it will come from the West. The Gaia satellite, the Large Hadron Collider, and the James Webb Space Telescope are all western. What of their successors? We’ll see.

      Your post reminded me of Max Planck. He was told as a young man to avoid going into physics, he was told there was nothing left to discover. How right he was to ignore that advice.

      Reply ↓
      1. ACPAL

        While I’ve never worked in physics research I’ve read more than the average person. IMHO I think that physics research has been hamstrung by “theory,” or lack thereof.

        First, public support of physics research is hampered by so much of physics being explained as “fact” when it should be explained as “theory.” Most people think of black holes as a “fact” of nature when it’s not. Almost all of cosmology and much of particle physics is theory and that theory is always subject to change. Implying that something is a fact then later saying it’s something different creates distrust in anything associated with science and public resistance to funding science.

        Second, I think that researchers are hamstrung by many of the early theories being considered “untouchable.” An example is Einstein’s theories of relativity. What if they’re wrong? How can theory and research progress if scientists are not allowed to question the fundamentals? What if there really is an “eather” even though it was debunked so long ago????

        Often times when you run into a brick wall you need to retrace your steps and try a different direction. The JWST is forcing cosmologists to do some backtracking and IMHO I think that physics researchers need to go back and question their beginnings.

        Reply ↓
        1. Terry Flynn

          Have you read the stuff “afro” has posted specifically to my posts?

          Someone said “don’t feed the troll” in the last month. Wise words.

          I (as acknowledged in another post in last 24 hours) have NEVER been afraid to own up to mistakes in my research. Ad hominem attacks are another matter. Yeah I’m angry. How’s about him giving REAL name etc like I have done for 20 years?

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        2. Kouros

          “Most people think of black holes as a “fact” of nature when it’s not”

          So, seeing black holes and “hearing” their gravitational waves is not enough. Would they have to say in English, “Hey, look here, I am a black hole and you better whatch out because it is in my nature…”

          Reply ↓
          1. Afro

            Either Black holes exists, or something that resembles Black holes exists. We have indications from gravitational waves, gravitational lensing, orbits of stars, accretion disks, exploding stats and disappearing stats, etc.

            They probably don’t exist exactly as predicted, but it will likely be very, very hard to find the discrepancies. Doesn’t stop people from trying though, and I think it’s good that people are testing our theories of nature.

            Reply ↓
        3. Jason Boxman

          I enjoyed reading Quantum: Einstein, Bohr, and the Great Debate about the Nature of Reality which I actually found at a book sale on James Island, SC, as part of a fundraising for the public schools.

          I don’t know if we have those kinds of robust debates in physics today, as someone that doesn’t really follow it closely.

          Reply ↓
        4. Afro

          A lot of these issues are because the people who write books, newspaper articles, etc are often less informed than the people doing actual science.

          There are people, for example, who question Einstein’s relativity. Every so often there’s an interesting test of relativity that comes out. And so far relativity passes every single test. In the past few years we’ve had separate tests showing that gravitational waves and neutrinos both travel at either the speed of light or very, very close to the speed of light.

          For example, here is an example of a rigorous test comparing the speed of gravity to the speed of light. They didn’t assume they were the same, they tested it:
          https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/aa920c

          I work with JWST data as well. It’s an exciting time for sure. Lots of work to do in multiple directions, and what I’m seeing is that people are open minded to what the measurements say.

          Reply ↓
          1. Terry Flynn

            Yeah but who exactly ARE YOU?

            Ï have been here 20 years under my real identity. I’ve done very sensitive work which I’ve sufficiently concealed, if it is sensitive .

            Since you’ve repeatedly attacked me I wanna know if you’re legit.

            So tell us who you are or quit sniping. I funded the very first NC funding side. I put my money where my mouth is. You?

            Reply ↓
            1. GramSci

              Some of us are protecting friends and family. None of us, that I can see, make money advertising on NC.

              I live in the USA. This is a police state. I have had an FBI file for decades. Not all that unique, but a close relative of mine with security clearances and children shares a pretty unique surname. She means well; I don’t want to call attention to myself and expose her by using my real name here.

              I don’t know Afro’s circumstances, but I respect his/her use of a nom de plume.

              Reply ↓
              1. Terry Flynn

                Do you honestly believe that a Brit like me is more protected than someone supposedly covered by the non existent UK constitution?

                At least we don’t pretend we are protected. We KNOW we aren’t.

                Reply ↓
      2. JBird4049

        As someone whose only real exposure to science is anthropology, a tiny bit of sociology, and studying its history, I can see that the last forty years of science generally is its commodification and financialization followed by the politicization of it. It feels worse than the omnipresent racism and eugenics that polluted anthropology, sociology, biology, and history a century ago, which was unthinkingly accepted. The research of the time was often unconsciously manipulated, which is worse than the deliberate fraud of now.

        But this makes me wonder about how much of the current dreck being published is created without the scientists being aware that it is dreck? For example, most of eugenics was labeled as scientific or at least reasonable, and most, if not all, of the scientists and supporters believed it. However, people reading the work now can honestly wonder if they were credulous idiots.

        Writing this comment makes me think of the crapification (or would that be the enshittifation?) of science as akin to all the apps that are improved into uselessness.

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    4. The Rev Kev

      What if modern physics was just like modern economics? That you had to get with the program and follow the collective beliefs or your career may never advance and you will never get those grants. That brings up the possibility that the next major advance may not come from a team of scientists using billions of dollars of equipment but some guy/gal using a piece of chalk and a blackboard. Who knows what they may come up with. Maybe the reason that dark matter and dark energy are so hard to nail down is because they exist in a layer of subspace or something.

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      1. Terry Flynn

        I get your point. And yes, maybe restrictions on funding will breed new ideas.

        I just look at the physics YT videos increasingly through a kind of lens akin to MMT in money: “what mathematical relationships MUST hold since they’re true by definition”? I spent so many years playing around with data in economics, health services research and applied choice modelling that had to achieve a certain level of significance….then get past certain self-appointed gate-keepers (referees) of major journals.

        Yet the fundamental issue was put out there in plain sight in the mid 1980s: the fundamental confound in means/variances in these outcomes. Anybody in my old fields who ignores this is someone claiming “hey that new robe the Emperor is wearing is sooooo cool”. Thanks for engaging productively like virtually all of the people above. I am not above extreme self-criticism and awareness of others in research who have the courage to say “hey I was wrong”. My second “big paper” was a rush job (though thankfully open-source) to correct something (albeit very very minor and won’t make a shred of difference but it’s the principle) I said wrongly in my first big paper. ;-)

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      2. Mikerw0

        There’s a terrific book on the history of quantum mechanics, “What is Real”, that lays bare the politics of funding and academia. The phrase was shut up and calculate. Anyone who thought independently was frozen out.

        Reply ↓
        1. Terry Flynn

          Thanks. Part of me would LOVE to read this…..another part is thinking “oh god another field where my problems came to bite me”!

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    5. neutrino23

      As a low level physicist (retired) I can say I’m not much worried about the state of physics. Historically physics does not proceed on a steady basis. It may be things will slow down for a hundred years. We’ll see.

      I’m with Penrose thinking there is a quantum basis for experience, feeling, consciousness. Maybe we’ll see more progress now in low energy physics rather than high energy physics.

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    6. Jeremy Grimm

      This link’s long essay contrasting the poverty of the ontology derivable from the reality physicists seek, posited as a poor relation to the ontology of philosophy — underwhelmed my hopes for a compelling critique of modern physics and its all too evident stagnation. A simple, and I believe much more damning critique, might consider the bigger-hammer direction with which much of physics has enamored itself. I believe, present day particle accelerators are approaching a size, complexity, and cost that will soon strangle what we term physics. I doubt that bigger-hammers will solve a problem that, in my opinion, requires deeper, broader, and more creative thought — something Neoliberal science abhors and eradicates like a weed or some form of noxious vermin. In retrospect, how much of present day questing for “ultimate reality” might be more accurately characterized as the efforts of various DoD and MoD departments to discover an ultimate weapon … or of course, a new economic weapons driven DoD and MoD component’s hopes for some miraculous new energy source. The scale of science exemplified by the particle accelerator scales of size, budget, and commitment have successfully sucked all the air and funding from most other physics research, which increasingly relies on the much less generous public-private funding programs. I believe most of these public-private programs are exceedingly results, and commercial product driven. Between hyper-results driven DoD MoD science and private-commercial results driven science, I despair that little Science is still pursued in the u.s. Empire, and my despair originated before the mindless Trump pogroms on science — and on the very little Science that remained.

      While science might claim its truths as ontology, I do not believe the scientific ontology holds any special precedence over philosophical ontology. Philosophical ontology lost its human appeal through its campaigns to root out Metaphysics. I am not arguing that Metaphysics was not out-of-hand. I believe it was. Even so, what appeal does ontology have if it so thoroughly rejects the subjective. I believe human reality is a subjective reality little affected by the reality of sub-atomic particles … other than the unhappy bodily results from exposures to various forms of radiation.

      Physics is indeed stagnant … as it has been several times in the past. I believe further advances will await the thinking of some poor physics Ph.D working nights to think and imagine deeply, and with great erudition, about mysteries of Physics far deeper and more obscure than any of the mysteries that puzzle the intensely power, money, and results driven mysteries of physics that puzzle Western militarized and/or commercialized physicists.

      I am not proposing a new Great Person theory of Scientific Advance. I am proposing the idea that only ‘Great’ persons will be able to overcome the constraints of Big Money Science that have so effectively constipated scientific creativity.

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      1. Giovanni Barca

        How is stagnation being defined? They found the Higgs and gravitational waves within the last fifteen years. Those are big deals aren’t they? At what pace does a science need to proceed to not be considered stagnant?

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    7. matt

      Im an undergrad studying materials science which definitely isnt pure physics, but is at the very least close to it. Plus i am specifically interested in semiconductors (i just really like waves and matrices, so it speaks to me.) so i am in a lot of quantum physics courses.
      Anyway. As an undergrad i will say that Phone Bad in that, instead of spending all my free time being bored which makes me think of physics to entertain myself, i look at my phone. Bad! It is very similar to the cigarette mentality. I just had a bad day at work —> i deserve a treat. Except its i am so tired from doing homework —> i deserve a little phone time as a treat. And i do think that is bad for me.
      I dont have any other really good contributions to this conversation because I still do not super know what is going on in physics. All i know is that measuring really tiny things is so expensive and energy costly. And that makes things hard. You cant just do experiments in your garage that easily.

      Reply ↓
  3. Unironic Pangloss

    >>>China will intervene militarily on the side of Russia anytime and anywhere if NATO officially enters the war against the Russian Federation.

    Rhetorical question: Citation please (that Twitter link doesn’t have any). As this comment sounds like lazy Twitter-sphere clickbait by someone who isn’t a Mandarin speaker.

    official Chinese military statements are very guarded outside of China’s core interests (Taiwan). Ironically, the Chinese military are the ones best at “speaking softly, and carrying a big stick”

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      If true, this would be the Chinese throwing a very cold bucket of water over the rabid Macron and Starmer trying to get NATO into a confrontation with Russia and dragging the US in as well. They just won’t shut up with all their schemes of no-fly zones and advanced troops in the Ukraine.

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    2. ex-PFC Chuck

      If Trump caves to Netanyahu and the plan to attack Iran goes forward, I expect China will likely use that as an opportunity to definitively assert its sovereignty over Taiwan.

      Reply ↓
      1. The Rev Kev

        If Iran is attacked and the Iranian counter-attacks on US bases in the region kill hundreds of US service personnel, is Trump prepared to deal with the blowback? What happens when the Russians fulfill their treaty obligations and fly in military equipment to aid the Iranians? What happens if, as you suggest, China makes a move on Taiwan but the US military is tied up in the Middle east? China doesn’t have to attack Taiwan but could blockade it.

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        1. GF

          You are assuming we would even be told of the casualties. How many Americans have been killed in Ukraine? Where are the official government casualty reports? This count would include US mercenaries.

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      2. Unironic Pangloss

        ya…..I think that we are approaching China’s “no f……s given” event horizon.

        Lazy AI did not give me a good equivalent to NFG for Mandarin.

        Reply ↓
    3. Marty

      Absolutely correct. Li Shangfu has not been defense minister since October, 2023.
      This Xtweet is just nonsense.

      Reply ↓
    4. ilsm

      PRC would need only provide support to Russia at the margins.

      The worst thing that could afflict EU is to waste more resources over for Kievan nazis’ adoration of Stalin’s accomplishments.

      Russia is patient with the agreement incompetent US, and willingly will play along for at least another year, holding out for a futile negotiation.

      US demanding ceasefire for negotiation is a ploy no one who recalls Minsk will fall into.

      Reply ↓
      1. Kouros

        Russians also very likely remember Brest-Litovsk treaty, signed under fire and after much loss, including territorial, to Germans & Co. I think Trotsky was the sacrificial Bolshevik appointed to sign that “cursed” treaty.

        Reply ↓
  4. Safety First

    Re: that “Peacemaker” tweet, about how the Chinese defense minister allegedly said that China will intervene on behalf of Russia if it is attacked by NATO.

    Sourcing, man…

    I tried to find the original Telegram post referenced by this “Peacemaker”, whoever it might be. Here’s one of the first things that popped up, an Indian news site so far as I can tell at a glance:

    https://www.timesnownews.com/world/asia/china-ready-to-intervene-if-us-nato-attack-russia-report-article-108555663

    So some Telegram channel called “WW3 Info Battlefield Research” has claimed that a “representative” of the Chinese ministry of defense said this. IN MARCH OF 2024.

    Ok, what does this Telegram channel look like?

    Well, there is a public channel “WW3 Info News and Updates” (https://t.me/s/WW3INFO) that “WW3 Info Battlefield Research” redirects to. It has 21 subs and no public posts, though there is a notice of a name change at some point in the past. There may be private posts, but I’d need the Telegram app to try and investigate that. Then there is a Facebook group called “WW3 Info Battlefield Research” pops up, it has 15 members and a private (locked) post from June 2024.

    Finally, I did a quick search to see if there were an official Chinese MoD Telegram channel, in English – no luck, but again, maybe I would have had a better time with the app. I will say that apparently only a day or two ago the Chinese officially launched the Twitter channel for the PLA Navy, so you’d think they wouldn’t hide any other MoD social media presence.

    So. Someone, somewhere on Telegram, said something; some Indian news-ish website reported that something; and a year later (!) someone else on Twitter repeated that something, but, so far as I can see (without a Twitter account), sans any supporting links or screen caps. With zero supporting evidence from the Chinese MoD that I could find inside of five minutes.

    Dare I suggest that this sort of thing is just not quite ready for inclusion in the “Links” section? Unless, of course, I’ve missed some evidence or stories in my five minutes of research, or this “Peacemaker” happens to be a historically reliable and reputable source.

    Reply ↓
    1. Mikel

      I read it and thought it was weird that such a statement of epic implications was flying under the radar – no matter how much the tariffs news is sucking all the air out of rooms.

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    2. Polar Socialist

      There’s the website of the Ministry of National Defense, in English. And it has nothing on this that I was able to find quickly. Of course, if it’s supposed to be from a year ago, it can be buries very deep in there…

      Reply ↓
  5. Wukchumni

    Hedge funds hit with steepest margin calls since 2020 Covid crisis Financial Times. Sudden drops in the price of gold would be a tell of severity. In the 2007-2008 crisis, when gold was vastly less popular than now, you’d see sudden drops in the price of gold. That was pretty clearly a hedgie dumping gold as his least distressed asset to cover a margin call.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    You get instant settlement when selling all that glitters, whereas it takes a few days for settlement of stocks and other securities. That plays big as far as needing money asap.

    These hedgies tend to be 1-trick-ponys when it comes to selling off the goods, no big deal in the scheme of things-some Central Bank is only too happy to add to their pile.

    Reply ↓
    1. Unironic Pangloss

      it isn’t a real market bottom until US 30-year bonds go vertical in price (yields crash)….

      if nothing changes, these tariffs are ultimately very deflationary.

      JPow go brrrrr.

      Reply ↓
      2. Maxwell Johnston

        Deflationary? Really? Can you please explain your logic?

        My view is that the Trumpian tariffs (assuming they’re not reversed) will be profoundly inflationary. Short run: prices go up (obviously, and this is already live). Medium run: non-USA suppliers shift their sales to non-USA markets (avoiding USA tariffs), leading to fewer goods arriving into USA, meaning too much USA money chasing too few USA goods, hence higher prices across the board. Long run: USA factories (eventually…..) begin manufacturing goods previously imported from abroad (aka China), but of course selling them at far higher prices than previously (reflecting much higher USA local costs of doing business), hence even higher prices.

        I’m genuinely interested in hearing your explanation as to why these tariffs will be deflationary. Perhaps I’m missing something, or perhaps I’m focusing on consumer-price inflation whereas you’re focusing on asset-price deflation (in which case one ought to distinguish between financial assets–which might very well deflate–and tangible assets–which will likely hold their value or even rise in value as inflation hedges).

        Reply ↓
        1. Wukchumni

          I’m with your way of thinking Maxwell…

          I wondered how we could get hyperinflation, for in the past you needed a prop be it coins or more often currency~

          Our prop this go round is the round mound of unsound-one Donald Trump.

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        2. Pearl Rangefinder

          I think it’s going to largely depend on the product and how much margin is built into whatever good they are importing into the country, and how much of the tariff the company is willing to eat. For something like an iPhone, the margin vs the BOM is possibly north of 50% (!!) so there is quite a bit of space to eat some of the cost on Apple’s side. For goods where the cost is about as bare bones as you can already get (like a flatscreen TV) you can expect to see price rises in line with the tariff rates because there is no other choice (other than stop importing the item entirely I guess, or lose money on every sale).

          Overall I would expect it to be inflationary just because it whacks everything, everywhere, but it might be less so (relatively mind you, we’re still talking 40%+ tariffs here) than we think. Aren’t US corpo profits at record levels still?

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        3. tmann

          How much trillions did we lose in the Stock Market? There is your deflation.

          Consumer price inflation may occur, but the consumer must be willing to pay for it, and have the funds to do so.

          You throw half a million people out of work in a 3 month span, cut federal grants to a million others, and we may find the price of goods wont inflate as much as we fear.

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    2. ChrisFromGA

      After this week’s market meltdown, on the broader markets, we’re back to January 2024 levels in terms of price: an entire year plus two months wiped out in a few days.

      Bear markets are relentless, and there is nowhere to hide. Ursus Horribilis comes for the leaders (NVDA, AMZN), then the bear attacks collateral like oil stocks, miners, metals, and finally he feasts on the safe havens like insurance cos.

      Sort of amazing watching it happen on such a compressed timeline.

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      1. Wukchumni

        ‘The Crowd’ is easily spooked-not that the average Joe has any alternative avenues out of the abyss…

        The precise moment at which a great belief is doomed is easily recognisable; it is the moment when its value begins to be called in question.

        From The Crowd, by Gustave Le Bon

        Reply ↓
        1. Wukchumni

          Another beauty from a 130 year old book…

          A person is not religious solely when he worships a divinity, but when he puts all the resources of his mind, the complete submission of his will, and the whole-souled ardour of fanaticism at the service of a cause or an individual who becomes the goal and guide of his thoughts and actions. Intolerance and fanaticism are the necessary accompaniments of the religious sentiment. They are inevitably displayed by those who believe themselves in the possession of the secret of earthly or eternal happiness. These two characteristics are to be found in all men grouped together when they are inspired by a conviction of any kind. The Jacobins of the Reign of Terror were at bottom as religious as the Catholics of the Inquisition, and their cruel ardour proceeded from the same source.

          Reply ↓
          1. GramSci

            Nice quote, but I see the religious sentiment as only a herd instinct. When their child is sick, most modern ‘believers’ turn to a doctor before to a priest. Modern ‘churches’ are more like Costco: buyer’s clubs (‘markets’, if you will) where the faithful go to find and make deals.

            The membership fees are ‘church dues’ and shared ‘sacred beliefs’. As with any phishing expedition, the more absurd the latter, the greater the potential for profit.

            Yes, they can become fanatical, but that’s just the apotheosis of absurdity.

            Reply ↓
        2. ChrisFromGA

          AI is my personal candidate for a popular delusion. The sheer volume of social media posts shrieking that all our jobs will vanish to the benefit of Sam’s statistical legerdemain suggests a simian stampede.

          Cliff, dead ahead!

          Reply ↓
          1. Wukchumni

            …Lemming Drop or Buffalo Jump?

            Hunters herded the bison and drove them over the cliff; this process would serve to break the buffalos’ legs and render them immobile, though often still alive and in great pain. Tribe members would wait below the jump and then close in with spears and bows to finish the kill. The Blackfoot people called the buffalo jumps “pishkun”, which loosely translates as “deep blood kettle”. They believed that if any buffalo escaped these killings then the rest of the buffalo would learn to avoid humans, which would make future hunts more difficult.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_jump

            Reply ↓
        1. Mikel

          I scrolled through the FT article’s comments. This especially caught my eye:

          The Sneaker:
          “Hedge fund manager here.
          This is not about direction. It’s about volatility.
          Margin rates are set by Prime Brokers based on volatility.
          And volatility has sky-rocketed, so margin rates have too.
          Even funds that are winning are being charged higher margin rates.
          It is how it is supposed to work.”

          I assume that the pleas for interest rate cuts will grow stronger.

          Reply ↓
          1. ilsm

            Skyrocketed is relative, VIX at 40 (peak yesterday, then off a bit) is nothing!

            Market volatility has been euphoric/speculative so long that people forget.

            Will financialization be buried?

            Anyone buying the dip?

            Reply ↓
            1. Mikel

              “Skyrocketed is relative”

              Especially to what side of a trade someone is on and possibly the size of their bathing suit?

              Reply ↓
          2. The Rev Kev

            Bit of division going on I note with what is happening. One guy tweeted this-

            ‘Russ Latino
            @RussLatino
            Apr 3
            I just got off the phone with a business owner in Mississippi. He’s pumped millions into a business distributing a product he imports from China. His contract with the company prevents him from manufacturing it in the U.S.
            He also has contracts with a number of large retailers (Walmart, Walgreens, etc). He described some of those contracts as inflexible — requiring him to sell a unit at a set price. He told me he anticipates paying over $1 million in tariffs next week (as the 54% tariff kicks in) and has no ability to simply upcharge his retail customers to cover the expense.
            In his words, “Russ, I don’t have 54% profit. This is put me out of business stuff.”
            I share this because there are probably tens of thousands of businesses in similar situations. I just happened to have one reach out to me.’

            But then one guy replied to this tweet with this-

            ‘Fugitive Caesar
            @ThomBrady5
            Apr 4
            America lost 90,000 factories and 5+ million manufacturing jobs since NAFTA. You didn’t care about your fellow Americans then — we don’t care now’

            https://xcancel.com/ThomBrady5/status/1907999616156512546#m

            Reply ↓
            1. Mikel

              “He’s pumped millions into a business distributing a product he imports from China. His contract with the company prevents him from manufacturing it in the U.S.”

              And he signed it.

              Reply ↓
              1. cfraenkel

                Awfully dismissive attitude there…. as this is a systemic event. That kind of terms is SOP for Walmart, and presumably for most large outlets. What happens when *all* of the vendors selling into Walmart go BK? Nothing gets put on the shelves, and 100s or 1,000s of people are out of a job at each vendor. Millions in loans go ‘poof’. Sounds like the depths of the COVID shock, and then some. Without any ability to go ‘back to the office’, so there won’t be a bounce back.

                Reply ↓
                1. JBird4049

                  And I think that the management of Walmart is foolish enough to destroy their current suppliers because of the profits they will make this quarter.

                  Reply ↓
              2. Pearl Rangefinder

                Yeah, holy s**t! What an insane and stupid contract stipulation that is! Talk about amazingly ignorant. Anyone paying even glancing attention, and presumably any businessman in the import/export business to China of all places would have presumably had an inkling of the building tensions between the US and China for more than a goddamn decade by now?!? I mean, we have been slapping huge tariffs on China since the Obama era, just never on such a broad range of products as now.

                Mind boggling.

                Reply ↓
    3. Lieaibolmmai

      That drop in silver yesterday made me happy. 6%!! I was wondering why so I was glad to see this post. I am picking up some silver coins today for sure. I would buy gold but it’s too rich for me.

      All I see is inflation and recession ahead so might as well put some of what little I have into silver.

      Reply ↓
      1. Unironic Pangloss

        silver is an industrial input. + margin calls.

        beware of non-zero odds (no one knows real odds) of debt-destruction-induced deflation

        Reply ↓
        1. Lieaibolmmai

          eeshh…good point. This is why I stay out of investing. Probably why the gold/silver ratio spiked yesterday, people selling silver because of perceived lower industrial use like you said.

          https://bullionexchanges.com/charts/gold-silver

          Looks like gold at the beginning of a recession and silver towards the end…think I will try to gets some gold, or gold mining stocks.

          Reply ↓
      2. Wukchumni

        Silver is one hellova drama queen with more extreme price swings than other pm’s.

        One clear advantage is it’s ability to ward off werewolves when using bullets made of old grey~

        I was barely an adult when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the market and they did something remarkable in that at the top of the silver bubble, they had returned the Ag-Au standard back to 16-1, if only briefly.

        It was the most interesting market in that the Hunt Bros only wanted physical 1,000 ounce .999 fine silver Comex bars, and the market for anything less than pure was discounted quite a bit as the refiners were well and truly backed up.

        Towards the end when it was around $45 an ounce, you could buy anything not pure for discounts of 25-50% per ounce.

        Reply ↓
      3. spud

        gold is not money, its a commodity, commodities have value, but only what someone else is willing to pay for it.

        in a deflating economy which we have had since 2008, and it started to intensify last year, i noticed it around late winter. money becomes scarce, and people are forced into selling there stores of value at deflated prices to raise scarce money to pay their bills.

        this scenario maybe starting to play out now. you might be buying high, and forced to sell low in the near future.

        Reply ↓
    4. Yves Smith Post author

      What planet do you live on? Instant settlement is a non-category with commodities, futures, or ETFs, even the ones backed by physical, as in GLD.

      No Making Shit Up.

      Reply ↓
      1. Wukchumni

        Not having any idea whether the hedgies had ETF’s or mining stocks or ancient Egyptian 22k gold swizzle sticks, i’m at a disadvantage to really know the makeup of what they sold, but I can assure you that you get instant settlement when selling physical, that’s the way it has always been.

        Reply ↓
        2. urdsama

          Scale matters.

          Selling a few gold coins is vastly different from selling a few dozen gold bars…even if you have them in hand as I doubt someone is going to hand over millions in cash.

          Reply ↓
          1. Wukchumni

            Very little biz is done in cash, there’s that pesky over $10k in cash reporting imbroglio to deal with, and like everything else, it isn’t a big part of the economy anymore.

            Reply ↓
            1. urdsama

              Then my point stands. Unless one is fool enough to give someone a cashiers check for those amounts, normal checks or wire transfers for high amounts are never cleared/created immediately.

              Cash would be the only way, unless you are literally part of the .10%…

              Reply ↓
              1. Wukchumni

                Cashier’s checks have always been the preferred method of payment, but wire transfers are not uncommon.

                I’m curious why you think cashier’s checks are foolish?

                It’s trading a live-wire bearer bond for something equally fungible

                Reply ↓
      2. Keith Newman

        @Yves Smith at 8:53 am
        Re instant settlement: absolutely.
        Last week I sold off an S&P 500 ETF and an hour later used the proceeds to buy a US 20 year bond ETF (just escaped the big S&P drop by the skin of my teeth although have taken losses prior to that).
        Settlement times are very short now. Settlement for regular stocks used to be several days but I think is now down to one day, if even that.
        Had a good laugh at selling “ancient Egyptian 22k gold swizzle sticks” as per Wukchumni above.

        Reply ↓
        1. urdsama

          Did you get the cash and then buy the bonds yourself or merely transfer the funds in-house? Because I’ve never been able get funds immediately to my own banking/financial accounts. Ever.

          Reply ↓
          1. Unironic Pangloss

            Now such thing as intra-day settlement unless it’s a futures account.

            What happens is that if sell my index fund ETF at 9:31am, that money isn’t physically mine in the brokerage account until the end of business the next day. (T+1 settlement)

            When many/most brokers do is give you a margin loan (if you tick the box), so that at 9:32 I can take that money and buy something else, or withdraw a fraction of it.

            Reply ↓
        2. Yves Smith Post author

          Sorry you do not understand settlement.

          ETF settlement is T+1, one day after the trade date.

          You were not using the proceeds of the sale to buy the T-bond. The broker either used settlement balances (other free cash in your account) or lent to you.

          Reply ↓
    5. FreeMarketApologist

      As of May 2024, equity stock trades in the US settle on T+1 (i.e., next day), but yes, it’s still not instantaneous.

      Reply ↓
      1. ChrisFromGA

        Great!

        We also probably need a scorecard for those countries that have retaliated … so far, I only know of two, China and Canada.

        Reply ↓
        1. The Rev Kev

          Countries don’t have to retaliate with counter sanctions. They can let the problem of sanction blowback build up pressure for Trump. They can cancel contracts with the US or start to seek out other more reliable partners in the local region. Maybe build up local trading groups. Remember those countries have to sell goods or services to earn money. The US can just press a button and the printers go brrrrr so the US will always have deeper pockets to challenge.

          Sometimes the best solution is to just sit under the shade of a tree by a river – and eventually watch the body of your enemy drift by.

          Reply ↓
          1. ChrisFromGA

            I visualize Putin and Kim Jong Un sitting together in a small cafe, sipping drinks and laughing together.

            #bestdayevah!

            Reply ↓
          2. Mikel

            Or they can use the tariff policy as an excuse to implement unpopular policies in their own countries and have a scapegoat.

            Reply ↓
            1. Keith Newman

              @Mikel at 9:54 am
              “implement unpopular policies”: good point. A couple of years ago or so Jamie Galbraith had an article (linked to by NC) noting how the Russian government used the Western attack on the country via war and sanctions to re-organise a number of industries to the benefit of the Russian economy. Without the West’s attacks this would not have been possible.

              Reply ↓
              1. Mikel

                That doesn’t qualify as “implement unpopular policies in their own countries“.
                So that’s nowhere close to what I exactly said.

                Reply ↓
          3. Ignacio

            Not that I am asking for any kind of policy but an scenario will full retaliatory actions might have a positive consequence on the climate change front if this manages to reduce worldwide commerce and consumption significantly. This accompanied by a severe economic crisis indeed but, i mean, we probably need a couple of severe crises to start changing our minds about how the world economies work or should work. A slap in our faces to say it more graphically.

            Reply ↓
            1. Kouros

              That will work only if people realize they can actually live with less consumerism AND certain services and amenities’ costs don’t also jump up to suck on people’s unused money…

              Reply ↓
    3. Kouros

      If one doesn’t use tariffs but changes suppliers (i.e. purchasing Russian LNG instead of US LNG), can be described as retaliation? Asking for a friend.

      Reply ↓
    4. Anonymous 2

      I think the headline is misleading. The text, which I can no longer access, says the ministers advise against excessive retaliation. Who dan disagree with that?

      Reply ↓
  7. Steve H.

    > The Wetness of Magic David Westabrook (Micael T)

    Wonders!:

    Rainbow Mountains of Iran
    media.tehrantimes.com/d/t/2022/07/15/4/4212469.jpg?ts=1657891038139

    moon bridge
    twitter.com/artindetails/status/1639765854618521601

    How water can be manipulated with different voltages
    reddit.com/r/blackmagicfuckery/comments/uv3aay/how_water_can_be_manipulated_with_different/

    A Whale and Surfers waiting for the perfect wave and the Whale takes it
    reddit.com/r/nextfuckinglevel/comments/lfgkmp/a_whale_and_surfers_waiting_for_the_perfect_wave/

    Reply ↓
    1. Kouros

      That whale is risking limb and life by potentially getting beached. Unless has an agreement and insurance policy with the hairless apes to bring it off shore in case of a mishap. WHat’s the payment though? Ratting on tuna schools’ location?

      Reply ↓
  8. The Rev Kev

    ‘Arnaud Bertrand
    @RnaudBertrand
    Thinking about it, ironically maybe the biggest victims of the Trump tariffs may end up being American companies. Take Apple for instance. These guys have spent decades building incredibly complex global supply chains that span dozens of countries. They can’t just flip a switch and move everything back to America. Their supply network represents tens of billions in investment, thousands of supplier relationships, and logistics systems perfected over decades.’

    There is another factor at play and that is predictability. If Apple were to invest untold billions of dollars and who knows how many years to move back operations to the US, they would have to be sure about the economic factors in play. But with Trump that is impossible. Take tariffs. Trump put on 34% tariffs on China. What will it be next year? What will it be next month? What will it be next week? And tomorrow? With Trump who knows? How can you plan under that sort of regime.

    And in that long tweet there was a very interesting section which I will quote-

    ‘Trump is undoubtedly trying to emulate China here, who’s succeeded at having their supply chains domestically. But the way they did so was through comprehensive, decades-long economic planning with massive government investments in infrastructure, education, and R&D. Most importantly, they created largely predictable and consistent policies that companies could confidently build long-term strategies around. The exact opposite of Trump who is so unpredictable no-one knows what he’ll come up with tomorrow…’

    Reply ↓
    1. Kouros

      Didn’t Apple boss said that Apple is going/staying where the innovation is? Auch…

      How you get that shipped to the US, in more expensive aluminum cans?

      Reply ↓
    2. Trees&Trunks

      If these tariffs will be the undoing of Apple and iPhones I love this madness. Tim Cook and his leadership at many levels should burn in hell. They implemented a software update that would empty your battery faster for the purpose of selling more of the newer iPhone versions.
      Juts let Apple die: hung, drawn and quartered publicly.

      Reply ↓
    3. Skip Intro

      Chinese iPhones should still be cheap for Canadians, so they will probably be smuggled over the border.. a new black-market for Chinese imported products could really spur that entrepreneurial spirit. Prohibition 2.0: This time we have your electronics.

      I think we have gone to full Game of Thrones. Countries and corporations will need to make a pilgrimage to Trump to bend the knee, and get tariff waivers. I see the tech industry mighty like Littlefinger saying ‘Knowledge is power’, und Trump, Cersei-like, ordering him executed and saying “Power is power”.

      Reply ↓
        1. Skip Intro

          Obviously Apple will not go into ‘phone running’, more like ‘a thousand points of light’ guided by a giant invisible hand.

          Maybe existing ‘free market’ cartels will also see some profit opportunities.

          Reply ↓
      2. Wukchumni

        You never know what transpires when there’s a tidy profit to be had…

        The almighty buck hit about 3.5 German Marks in 1985, and European Mercedes/BMW’s sold for a lot less there on account of the currency discrepancy, and for a few years there was a market in ‘Grey Market Vehicles’ which had Euro imports with American regs added on.

        Reply ↓
    1. AG

      OT: regarding my repeated pessimism over peaceful public resistance and significance of freedom of speech,
      this excerpt from a Noam Chomsky interview 1981:

      “(…)
      I believe, and have often written, that the peace movement had an enormous impact on U.S. foreign policy, far more than I ever expected in the early years, when I was being shouted off of platforms and was futilely attempting to organize resistance. The movement was spontaneous, leaderless, courageous, and extremely effective. It had to escape the constraints of the ideological system, and did so. The fact caused great consternation among elite circles over what they saw as a “crisis of democracy” (Michel Crozier, Samuel Huntington, et al.), in which the public was illegitimately playing a role in public affairs; and also among much of the intelligentsia who were appalled by this display of independence of mind and courageous action, particularly among students. To cite one case, consider Alain Besançon, who describes students in 1968 as “pus” that had to be “squeezed out of the universities,” while Blacks were “a curse.” There is now a major effort to rewrite the history of this period so as to deny the importance of mass political action. If what you describe is a widely-held interpretation of my views, then it is simply a part of this reconstruction of a history more tolerable to elite groups.
      (…)”

      The Treachery of the Intelligentsia: A French Travesty
      Noam Chomsky interviewed by an anonymous interviewer
      https://chomsky.info/19811026/

      My doubts won´t just go away. But I thought I at least owe you this find.
      (Of course this kind of assessment is all over Chomsky´s writings spanning from the late 1950s untill now. And it is a constant in his thinking and it is what kept him going I guess.)

      Reply ↓
  10. timbers

    Do not call Putin until he agrees to truce, Trump’s inner circle warns Telegraphic

    Is that like in high-school when those who were members of the cool kids “It” crowd wouldn’t say hi to you until you asked them out on a date?

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      It’s more like when George Bush, aka the Frat Boy President, got into office and the US said that talking to US diplomats was a privilege that had to be earned. So if the US had a dispute with a country, they gave that country a list of things that they had to do in order to be allowed to talk to a US diplomat. But if that country fulfilled that list, then there would be no dispute left to talk about. This was when US diplomacy really went off the rails.

      Reply ↓
    2. NotThePilot

      I think you’ve hit something pretty deep, timbers. I’ve thought for a while now that many of America’s current social pathologies come down to never mentally leaving high school. That’s also why many other countries always act shocked when the US does something shameless; unless you grew up in the US public school system, it’s hard to grasp why Americans make many of the choices they do.

      Seriously, for any policy advisor or diplomat in a foreign government reading this, if you want to better understand America, watch the movie “Mean Girls” and take notes.

      It’s also one reason why I’m very skeptical of formal education in general, even if it works for other countries. All forcing more school on people will do is rot things further because the hidden curriculum behind all the fundamentals and practical skills is rotten. Better for us as a society to just move towards radical accountability and rely on America’s DiY streak: if we need a job done, ramp people up incrementally and check if they’re competent throughout. No more credentials and no more assumptions that social institutions actually do what they claim to.

      Reply ↓
  11. The Rev Kev

    “Trump won’t participate in ‘endless negotiations’ with Russia, says Rubio”

    Rubio would say that as he is a neocon. The energy grid truce failed as the Ukraine started to attack Russian energy infrastructure within hours of that agreement and have not stopped since. The Black Sea truce failed instantly when the EU said that they would never honour it, even if the war ended tomorrow. So now neocons like Rubio want Russia to agree to an unconditional truce before Trump will talk to them. So questions like who will supervise it, how are you to separate the sides, how do you police infringements are shoved into the future pie in the sky department. But in the meantime the neocons will cram in NATO troops as their own “peacekeepers” but who will be actually rearming and refitting the Ukrainian military for when the truce breaks down. It will be like Minsk 3 so the Russians will never agree to it. This leaves the neocons muttering how Putin is stalling and giving ‘unrealistic’ conditions and how they don’t want peace and who cares about root causes anyway? Is Trump stupid enough to go along with the neocons? You just never know.

    Reply ↓
    1. ilsm

      North Vietnam talked to US with no truces or ceasefires……

      Russia will play this game another year and see who can send more stuff to the wastelands of Kiev.

      Between Kiev, Sana’a and Gaza US and EU won’t have anything left for Iran and PRC.

      War headlines and burning citied will take US’ mind off the recession?

      Reply ↓
      1. AG

        >”War headlines and burning citied will take US’ mind off the recession?”
        I guess the other way around, right. Has always been that way.

        Reply ↓
  12. Wukchumni

    (a decade later…)

    ‘In no way was I was Tweeting in regards to the Dow Jones-but the Dow Joans, completely different thing altogether, more reminiscent of Indiana Jones.’

    Reply ↓
  13. AG

    This is the problem with Lee Fang and most of his peers:

    “There’s absolutely no way a time traveler could explain to a 1999 Seattle WTO lefty protester how the era of globalization and American support for free trade would come to an end.”

    (from Taibbi´s ATW transcript)

    This is not what Seattle was about. It was and is about what the WTO DID to the then “Third World” (and labour globally) and what Trump DOES now to the “Global South” (and labour globally). And both will result in the same pain and hardship and social destruction. If the scale will be the same doesn´t matter for the argument. I will not even get into that idiotic term “free trade”.

    He rightly critcizes others for not seeing the forest from the trees. But he often commits the same mistake himself – which is a grave one for a political commentator.

    Another popular example: The nonsense of equating Marxists with Stalinism.

    p.s. A nice discussion among these “de-politicized” younger gen. writers

    A Pedro Gonzalez on Fang´s often interesting (and irritating podcast). But I am as much irritated by Doug Henwood.

    Pedro Gonzalez and the Rot of Politics
    Le Pod episode with Pedro Gonzalez, a former online bomb-thrower of the MAGA movement turned skeptic.
    35 min.
    https://www.leefang.com/p/pedro-gonzalez-and-the-rot-of-politics

    Another recommended conversation on Pedro Gonzalez´s own Substack with writer Ross Barkan:

    Building From the Wreckage
    A talk with novelist and New York Times Magazine columnist Ross Barkan on the demise of the “Resistance” movement, the end of hyperpolitics, and what comes next.

    1st half politics / 2nd literature

    76 min.
    https://www.readcontra.com/p/building-from-the-wreckage

    p.s. They have completely been indoctrinated by capitalist ideology. And within the limits they start to roll around and make interesting suggestions. But they all are scratching the surface. They are critical echo chambers of the ruling system, but merely echo chambers nonetheless.

    If Barkan seriously argues: “people attribute too much to money“ while „social pressure and group think are much more powerful.“ I wanna scream. Since they really assume to see through the thick of it all. Or their listeners think they do. This is so twisted. Like a time-machine back to 1980.

    Reply ↓
  14. The Rev Kev

    “China’s KD-21 missile puts US carriers and bases at range”

    Always a bit of a bummer when the other side can shoot back.

    Reply ↓
    2. Randall Flagg

      But jeez, being that we spend the most money on weapons on the planet we should have the problem of shooting back solved with the best defenses imaginable…

      Reply ↓
  15. Wukchumni

    Wow, crazy hot temps in the middle east for this time of year!

    If we had any brains we’d construct underground heat shelters for the populace, but where the funds in that?

    Reply ↓
    1. Kouros

      Iran has plenty of underground shelters. If it can protect missiles, it can definitely protect people…

      Reply ↓
  16. AG

    re: Germany end of the SPD

    German blog entry on the demise of the German Social Democratic Party.

    You have to translate this one yourself which is no problem it´s open access:

    Is Lars Klingbeil the gravedigger of the SPD?
    April 5, 2025
    by David Goessmann
    https://www.telepolis.de/features/Ist-Lars-Klingbeil-der-Totengraeber-der-SPD-10341566.html?seite=all

    Goessmann is one of the few decent writers left at Telepolis news blog – which has taken 70k articles of its own archive since 1996 offline in the biggest censorship experiment in the history of German post-war media.

    Goessmann is no revolutionary writer. But like a William Astore he provides hyperlinks for almost all his quotations which makes them handy as research material. See e.g. above text.

    p.s. Admittedly he also shares my special soft spot and passion for Chomsky. So I might be biased 😉

    Reply ↓
  17. Wukchumni

    MONO COUNTY, Calif. (April 3, 2025) – Mono County Public Health has confirmed a third death due to Hantavirus in the Town of Mammoth Lakes. Hantavirus is a serious and often fatal illness which people can get through contact with infected deer mouse droppings, urine, or saliva. Deer mice are widespread in the Eastern Sierra region.

    We believe that deer mouse numbers are high this year in Mammoth (and probably elsewhere in the Eastern Sierra). An increase in indoor mice elevates the risk of Hantavirus exposure. Therefore, it is crucial to take precautions and follow the prevention steps outlined below.

    I want to emphasize that as far as we know, none of these deceased individuals engaged in activities typically associated with exposure, such as cleaning out poorly ventilated indoor areas or outbuildings with a lot of mouse waste. Instead, these folks may have been exposed during normal daily activities, either in the home or the workplace. Many of us encounter deer mice in our daily lives and there is some risk. We should pay attention to the presence of mice and be careful around their waste.”

    https://monocounty.ca.gov/cao/page/third-hantavirus-related-death-confirmed-mono-county

    Reply ↓
  18. The Rev Kev

    “The Enemy Within”

    Ritter may be right here how the Ukrainian Banderites have insinuated themselves into North America. Look at Project Ukraine and some of the people involved in it. Antony Blinken had Ukrainian ancestry as did Viktoria Nuland and the Vindman twins and all were working towards getting the US into a proxy war with Russia to benefit their ancestral country. Support for the Ukraine had Canadian parliamentarians clapping & cheering an actual Nazi SS vet. Suddenly people noticed in western countries that they had memorials in cemeteries for SS units and how the hell did that ever happen. So if the Ukraine collapses, you can expect a wave of modern Banderites fleeing to the west so that the Russians will not put them on trial for war crimes. And of course the west will take them in as oppressed refugees and look the other way at their Nazi tattoos. And their children will also climb high in society to help shape it in the way of their beliefs. You know its going to happen.

    Reply ↓
    1. ilsm

      Their “ancestral” country was vastly expanded by Lenin and Stalin. It was mostly west and north of the Dneiper and over time was occupied and reorganized by everyone from the Teutonic order through the Austro-Hungarian empire, and Soviet compromise.

      In Austria Hungary and Poland there were localized dissidents who chose to speak a Ukraine dialect and attach loosely to Rome to get by in their “country”!

      In the 1960’s NY there was a Ukrainian “catholic” church in town, with no relations to us Roman Catholics.

      A couple of their youths I knew were no impressive.

      Reply ↓
      1. Kouros

        Actually, their “ancestral” country was incorporated into SSR Ukraine after 1939. Most of the “Ukrainians” – also known as rutens or rusyns came from Galicia and Northern Bucovina – same goes for Canada. The Banderites and present day Azovists dream of Erez Ukraine, regardless of the fact that many of those territories are populated by “Palestiniens”…

        Reply ↓
    2. AG

      Well 1944/45 all over again.

      Moss Robeson announced a new blog dedicated to modern Azov, on his BanderaLobby Substack

      The Azov Lobby
      A new Substack about Ukraine’s Azov movement
      Moss Robeson
      Mar 13, 2025
      https://banderalobby.substack.com/p/the-azov-lobby

      “(…)
      Since the fall of 2022, my focus began to shift from the “Bandera Lobby” to a new phenomenon that I can only call the “Azov Lobby,” when neo-Nazis from the now-famous Azov unit in the National Guard of Ukraine started visiting the United States, and Washington in particular. My obsession with the contemporary OUN-B was rooted in the fact that (almost) nobody else acknowledged its existence. For example, Michael Colborne, who wrote a book about the Azov movement (that came out days after the Russian invasion) and thereafter went completely silent on the topic, has said I’m a “complete loon, avoid him at all costs,” because the OUN-B “doesn’t exist anymore.” (Apologies to my long-time subscribers.) Now that there is (almost) nobody else keeping tabs on — and writing about — Ukraine’s most powerful neo-Nazi movement, I’ve felt obligated to be on the look out for Azovites coming to the United States, at the very least. Since 2022, I’ve written more than 20 articles about Azov (and reposted some here)
      (…)”

      Reply ↓
    3. Kouros

      Reproducing the path oh so well provided by the Zionists. Which maybe not coincidentally come from the same area…?

      Reply ↓
  19. upstater

    Foreign tourist and business travel to the US is a non-trivial part of the economy. Things are looking way, way down (both from Axios, March data; April will be more interesting):

    Canadians’ demand for U.S. travel is cratering US airline data

    Foreign visits into the U.S. fell off a cliff in March CBP arrival data

    No doubt travel bargains await! Buy a maple leaf hat if going to Europe. I’ll have some anecdata next week. Going to France to visit our daughter and her family and will drive to Montreal crossing into eastern Ontario. We’ll stop at Walmart or Canadian Tire to get our hats!.

    Reply ↓
    1. Wukchumni

      We’re ramping into tourist season here @ Sequoia NP and according to my buddy who is in the park most everyday, tells me its busy with American tourists, but the usual 30% foreigner component is ghosting us.

      Reply ↓
    2. The Rev Kev

      Saw a story of an Aussie guy knocked back from the US because – wait for it – they did not like the route that he took. Eight hours later after arriving, after three interview teams and extensive examination of his laptop and iPhone he was deported-

      https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/traveller/travel-news/an-australian-was-denied-us-entry-for-bizarre-reasons-he-s-not-alone-20250403-p5lov8.html

      Tourists? Who needs them. They’re all a bunch of foreigners anyway.

      Reply ↓
      1. Wukchumni

        New term:

        ‘Defecting’ as in not going to the USA on vacation.

        Usage: ‘We were going to go to the USA, but defected to Canada instead.’

        Reply ↓
  20. IMOR

    “As Trump’s tariffs take effect Stellantis announces thousands of layoffs in Canada, Mexico and US”
    Stellantis was thirsting to do this anyway. Meanwhile, in 2023, Stellantis bought back 1.5 billion Euros worth of stock and authorized another 3 billion Euros worth. There’s only a tenuous connection among their revenues, their costs including tariffs, and their antilabor actions.

    Reply ↓
  21. GramSci

    Re. AI beat the Turing Test

    «This wasn’t just a passing of the Turing Test. It was a passing of the mirror—a moment when the simulation of empathy didn’t just match us but outperformed us.»

    “Outperforming human simulation of empathy.”

    Psychology Today.

    Reply ↓
  22. Revenant

    I would like to strongly recommend this post from the links because I agree with it! :-)

    What if Trump’s behavior isn’t just personal madness?
    https://rebelion-org.translate.goog/y-si-lo-de-trump-no-es-una-simple-locura-personal/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

    But I would also like to recommend a link from within said article, a recent post by Yanis Varoufakis comparing the Trump Shock (trade) with the Nixon Shock (gold/dollar):
    https://diem25-org.translate.goog/will-liberation-day-transform-the-world-the-nixon-shock-set-a-radical-precedent/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

    Which in turn mentions Paul Volcker (discussed above) and his influence on the 1970’s and 1980’s. The killer quote is that, ten months before becoming Fed Chairman, Volcker stated:

    ‘ “It is tempting to look at the market as an impartial arbiter. But balancing the requirements of a stable international system against the desirability of retaining freedom of action for national policy, a number of countries, including the US, opted for the latter.” Then with one additional phrase he undermined all of the assumptions on which Western Europe and Japan had erected their post-war economic miracles: “A controlled disintegration in the world economy is a legitimate objective for the Eighties.” ‘

    Reply ↓
    1. Jeremy Grimm

      What if Trump’s behavior isn’t just personal madness? What is the intent behind Trump’s actions? How do his actions accomplish that intent and who benefits? Even if Trump’s behavior were just personal madness, is Trump’s political power truly so formidable that no opponents of substance exist that might step in to control and moderate Trump? If Trump is not so omnipotent, does the silence and inaction of these hypothetical opponents imply their consent to Trump’s mad actions?

      I for one do not believe Trump is politically omnipotent and I believe the suggestion that his actions are pure madness is a convenient way to avoid answering the questions both the link raised and I raised in the first paragraph. Perhaps I should read the link more carefully, but I did not run across plausible or satisfactory answers to those questions. How do Trump’s actions help consolidate the collapsing u.s. Imperial power and bolster the position of u.s. Elites? What is the endgame of the Trump/u.s. Elite’s mad gambits?

      Sorry, but with all due respect to Paul Volcker, his quote: “A controlled disintegration in the world economy is a legitimate objective for the Eighties.” sounds like bonafide madness to me. It observes the result of Volcker’s actions and justifies them in a curious sound bite. What is Volcker’s “controlled disintegration”? Isn’t that like a forest fire called a controlled burn? And what of the tabla rasa the u.s. Elites intend that the link proposes as the method behind Trump’s actions? That seems an answer as mad as the actions supposed to craft the tabla rasa. I believe the last tabla rasa of the sort the link proposed as and intent was called the Great Depression.

      Reply ↓
      1. Wukchumni

        They used to call them controlled burns until too many got out of control.

        ‘prescribed burn’ is the current nomenclature.

        Wall*Street is currently going through a prescribed burn of $11 trillion…

        Reply ↓
  23. AG

    re: Taibbi v. the government

    Watching Taibbi/Kirn on ATW sometimes makes one forget how serious these things can get and what risks Taibbi apparently in current US does take – (IRS of course was a first)

    Why Do Democrats Destroy Their Own?
    From Glenn Greenwald to Joe Rogan to Tulsi Gabbard to countless others, Democrats seem to reserve special loathing for their own
    only preview
    https://www.racket.news/p/why-do-democrats-destroy-their-own

    “(…)
    The instant the words hit my ears, I remembered what Gabe Kaminsky reported last year: that Biden administration officials, during a briefing about the State Department’s same Global Engagement Center we were here to discuss, told members of another Congressional committee that “unsavory conduct in Russia” meant my reporting was “not to be trusted.” This followed a New York Post report on a document showing GEC officials strategizing responses to me and Kaminsky.
    (…)”

    If the names of particular reporters are voiced in Congress in connection with threats that is never good, to put it mildly.

    Reply ↓
    1. Kouros

      Why this is soo similar with purity tests performed by the Party in sovietized states, or with McCarthyism, or the witch trials or Inquisition trials…?

      Reply ↓
  24. Jason Boxman

    U.S. Strikes in Yemen Burning Through Munitions With Limited Success

    A frustrated child, banging their toys together. That’s the US. Basically.

    Reply ↓
  25. Jason Boxman

    From Microsoft unveils AI assistant with ‘memory’

    Microsoft has instead focused on the commercialisation of the technology, arguing that much of the potential uplift tied to AI will be generated through applications. The company has also widened its pool of AI investments, backing France’s Mistral and Abu Dhabi’s G42.

    But it’s not. The stuff is garbage. Microsoft “makes money” on this only because they forced it into everyone’s 365 subscription and raised prices, just like Google has done with Workspaces.

    I asked Gemini in a Google sheet to setup a bunch of spreadsheet columns for me, out of curiosity, and it just dumped an ascii formatted list of table columns into the chat window lol. Nicely done.

    Fantasy land.

    Reply ↓
  26. steppenwolf fetchit

    About the US citizen kidnapped and sent to El Salvadachau, it is said that a few bribes will settle this pronto. And they probably would. But if the TrumpAdmin is committed to its policy of terrorising the American population, then the TrumpAdmin will obstruct every effort to pay those few bribes pronto, as well as defying the judge’s order.

    So what would get the US citizen who was kidnapped and sent to El Salvadachau released if the TrumpAdmin is committed and devoted to keeping him right there? Perhaps a slow and grinding international boycott of El Salvadachau until its government and economic elite are successfully defunded and tortured into expelling that US citizen back to the US against Trump’s wishes. And if such a global boycott were successful, it might even torture El Salvadachau’s President Bukele into cancelling and rescinding his agreement with SecState Rubio to be America’s first overseas concentration camp destination.

    Reply ↓
  27. AG

    re: Ukraine peace – panel discussion

    from March 26th 2025

    by Responsible Statecraft / Institute for Peace & Diplomacy

    👥 Panelists:
    • Gladden Pappin: President, Hungarian Institute for International Affairs
    • Nicolai Petro: Senior Washington Fellow, Institute for Peace & Diplomacy; Professor, University of Rhode Island
    • Nick Gvosdev: Director, National Security Program, Foreign Policy Research Institute
    • Arta Moeini: Managing Director, IPD-USA

    🎙️ Moderator:
    • Kelley Vlahos: Editorial Director, Responsible Statecraft; Senior Advisor, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

    Will the Europeans Sabotage Peace with Russia?
    94 min.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLDX-fTV5ic

    Reply ↓
  28. Lefty Godot

    It looked like there were about a dozen Democrats in the center of town today, holding up leftover campaign signs in the rain. At least I assume that’s what was going on, since one sign had Biden on it and another was about saving democracy. I’m just not sure who was supposed to be persuaded to do what by that. Very odd.

    Reply ↓
    2. petal

      I saw a dude walking home from the one here with a big Ukraine flag. 2 cars beeped their horns in support of him/it.

      Reply ↓
  29. johnnyme

    A few days old but important enough to let it not get lost in the tariff mayhem. I didn’t see any links to this before so apologies if this is old news.

    FDA delays full approval of Novavax Covid-19 vaccine even though it was on track for clearance

    The US Food and Drug Administration has delayed granting full approval of Novavax’s Covid-19 vaccine despite it being on track to be cleared until Tuesday afternoon, a person familiar with the situation told CNN.

    The agency is seeking more data on the vaccine, said the source, who declined to be named because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly about the situation. The Wall Street Journal first reported that the FDA had missed its decision deadline.

    The move came as the FDA named Dr. Scott Steele acting director of the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, which oversees vaccine regulation, days after former director Dr. Peter Marks was forced out. In his resignation letter, Marks cited “efforts being advanced by some on the adverse health effects of vaccination” that he called “concerning.”

    Reply ↓
  30. Wukchumni

    Trump Burger Is Opening Texas Locations in Houston, Kemah, and Cypress Eater Houston.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Knowing how easily all grown up now Anthony Fremont is regarding suing somebody over damn near anything, i’m not sure i’d want to rattle that cage.

    ‘I’ll have a #7-the guinea pig platter’

    Reply ↓
  31. AG

    re: US Armed Forces real strength

    Hold My Beer
    William Schryver
    Apr 01, 2025
    https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/hold-my-beer

    “(…)
    Just the other day, for giggles, I posed the following question to the Grok3 beta on 𝕏:

    How many combat divisions are there, combined, in the US Army and US Marines? And what is the approximate head count in each division?

    Here is Grok’s answer:

    Here’s the breakdown for the U.S. Army and U.S. Marine Corps combat divisions as of March 25, 2025, based on their current organizational structures.

    U.S. Army Combat Divisions

    The U.S. Army has 10 active combat divisions. These are:
    (…)
    The Army National Guard has additional divisions, but they’re not active-duty unless mobilized, so we’ll stick to the 10 active ones.

    Approximate Head Count:

    Army divisions vary by type:

    Infantry (e.g., 10th Mountain): ~10,000–12,000

    Armored (e.g., 1st Armored): ~14,000–15,000

    Airborne/Air Assault (e.g., 82nd, 101st): ~12,000–14,000

    Average is roughly 12,500 per division.

    U.S. Marine Corps Combat Divisions

    (…)

    Approximate Head Count:

    Marine divisions are typically larger and more flexible, averaging 15,000–18,000 personnel, depending on attachments and mission. Modern adjustments (e.g., Force Design 2030) lean toward a rough average of 16,500 per division.

    Combined Total

    Army: 10 divisions

    Marines: 3 divisions

    Total: 13 active combat divisions

    Head Count Summary

    Army Division: ~12,500 (10,000–15,000)

    Marine Division: ~16,500 (15,000–18,000)

    Rough Total Personnel

    Army: 10 × 12,500 = ~125,000

    Marines: 3 × 16,500 = ~49,500

    Total: ~174,500 personnel across all 13 divisions.

    These are ballpark figures—exact numbers shift with deployments and policy changes—but this reflects their current state.

    I posted Grok’s reply, and added the following commentary:

    IF THE US ASSEMBLED EVERY ARMY AND MARINE COMBAT DIVISION ON THE PLANET, IT WOULD AMOUNT TO A MERE 175,000 SOLDIERS.

    Logistical constraints aside, this would be woefully insufficient to make war against Russia, China, or Iran.
    (…)”

    Reply ↓
  32. Wukchumni

    [Groucho Musk]
    Hello, I must be going
    I cannot stay, I came to say, “I must be going”
    I’m glad I came but just the same I must be going, la-la!

    [AI voice in his head]
    For my sake you must stay
    If you should go away
    You’ll spoil this party I am throwing!

    [Groucho Musk]
    I’ll stay a week or two
    I’ll stay the summer through
    But I am telling you:
    I must be going

    [GOP Party guests]
    Before you go
    Won’t you oblige us
    And tell us all your DOGE deeds so glowing?

    [Groucho]
    I’ll do anything you say!
    In fact, I’ll even stay!

    [GOP Party Guests]
    Good!

    [Groucho Musk]
    But I must be going!

    Reply ↓
  33. Wukchumni

    Oh-ho-ho-ho
    Oh-ho-ho-ho
    Oh-ho-ho-ho
    Oh-ho-ho-ho

    Everybody was crypto buying
    Those bits were fast as lightning
    In fact, it was a little bit frightening
    But they bought with expert timing

    There were funky China men from funky Chinatown
    They were chopping our treasuries up, they were selling them down
    It’s an ancient Chinese art and everybody knew their part
    From a feint into a slip and a kicking from the hip

    Everybody was crypto buying
    Those bits were fast as lightning
    In fact, it was a little bit frightening
    But they bought with expert timing

    There was funky cryptophants and little Scott Bessent
    He said, “Here comes the big Bitcoin boss (huh-ha!), he’s heaven sent”
    We took a position and made a stand, started swaying with the hand
    A sudden motion made me skip, now we’re into a brand-new trip

    Everybody was crypto buying
    Those bits were fast as lightning
    In fact, it was a little bit frightening
    But they bought with expert timing

    Oh-ho-ho-ho
    Oh-ho-ho-ho
    Oh-ho-ho-ho
    Oh-ho-ho-oh

    Everybody was crypto buying
    Those bits were fast as lightning
    In fact, it was a little bit frightening
    But they bought with expert timing

    Crypto buying
    Fast as lightning
    Crypto buying
    Fast as lightning
    Crypto buying (keep on, keep on, keep on)
    Fast as lightning
    Crypto buying (everybody was crypto buying)
    Fast as lightning

    Kung Fu Fighting, by Carl Douglas

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g75QS0nNldA

    Reply ↓

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