Author Archives: Edward Harrison

About Edward Harrison

I am a banking and finance specialist at the economic consultancy Global Macro Advisors. Previously, I worked at Deutsche Bank, Bain, the Corporate Executive Board and Yahoo. I have a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College and an MBA in Finance from Columbia University. As to ideology, I would call myself a libertarian realist - believer in the primacy of markets over a statist approach. However, I am no ideologue who believes that markets can solve all problems. Having lived in a lot of different places, I tend to take a global approach to economics and politics. I started my career as a diplomat in the foreign service and speak German, Dutch, Swedish, Spanish and French as well as English and can read a number of other European languages. I enjoy a good debate on these issues and I hope you enjoy my blogs. Please do sign up for the Email and RSS feeds on my blog pages. Cheers. Edward http://www.creditwritedowns.com

The FDIC to get credit from banks even while banks restrict lending

Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns In the latest inexplicable move to extricate the U.S. banking system from crisis, the FDIC is reportedly close to asking the very banks it regulates for a loan to top up its balances. The plan is “strongly supported by bankers and their lobbyists” according to the New York […]

The origin of the U.S. dollar as legal tender and its link to Depression

Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns I have been very interested in the concept of legal tender of late because of the revelation this summer that the State of California was issuing I.O.U.’s to honour its debts instead of paying in U.S. Dollars, which are legal tender and I.O.U.’s from the U.S. government (see […]

Bill Gross: sell risky assets and buy Treasuries

Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. Hi all. Yves is getting slammed because of her book project, so I am stepping in with a few additional posts over the next few days. I may have a few investment posts (which Yves usually avoids) to run by you. Below is the first investment-oriented one, a […]

Steve Keen: we need a “debt jubilee”

Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns Last week, I highlighted some of the ideas of Australian economist Steve Keen in my post, “Politics and reform: Say I’m a politician….” Keen is of the Minsky camp and he believes that an unsustainable debt bubble has build up in the industrialized world which can only be […]

The mother of all inventory corrections is not the same as re-stocking

Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns Back in April I told you I anticipated an uptick in GDP in part because of changes in inventories – massive change in the inventories. At the time, I thought I was going out on a limb by suggesting we could see positive GDP numbers in Q3 and […]

Financial Reform: Not happening but the need is clear

Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns Say I’m a politician and I am concerned about my re-election prospects in 2010. I have been a member of Congress for seven years now and have developed a good reputation as a reform-minded economic realist willing to listen to a number of competing economic ideas. However, right […]

Murder-Suicide in Chimerica

Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns In 2002, the global economy was weak and equity markets around the world were at multi-year lows following the greatest equity bubble and bust in world history. Many policy makers including Alan Greenspan, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, feared a deflationary spiral of Great Depression proportions resulting […]

Is economic boom around the corner?

Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. Back in February, I asked you if we were experiencing a recession or depression. A plurality said it was a depression with a small ’d.’ I agreed and went on to explain why. Since then, things have changed and we seem to be on the verge of what […]

Stephen Roach: The case against Bernanke

Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. While most economists have come out in favor of Barack Obama’s decision to re-appoint Ben Bernanke as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Stephen Roach has penned an Op-Ed in today’s Financial Times which highlights the case against Bernanke. It is must reading. Roach has three main points. […]

Weak consumer spending will last for years

Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. It has been my thesis for some time that we are seeing a secular change in consumption patterns in the United States. This will have grave implications for a world economy used to seeing the American consumer as an economic growth engine and consumer of first choice. Retail […]

Revisiting employment indicators for signs of recovery

Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns If you recall, at the end of May, I wrote a post “Both initial claims and continuing claims now pointing to recovery” that said jobless claims data were pointing to an imminent recovery. The general gist of my argument was recovery would come by year’s end or early […]

What does a double dip recession look like?

Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. Below is a post I penned earlier this week about double dip recessions. The Volcker Whip-inflation-now induced double dip in 1980-1982 is the best precedent for today. What could tip us into a secondary relapse? A lot of things: commodity prices, oil, higher interest rates, commercial real estate, […]

US GDP comes in at minus 1%

Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. Down 1.5% was the consensus expectation. But Q1 was revised down to minus 6.4% from 5.5%. The GDP Deflator for Q2 came in at 0.2%, which shows that disinflation risks tipping into deflation still. The dollar is weaker and the short end of the treasury curve is up […]