Author Archives: Richard Smith

The Wall of Worry for 2011 is a Big One, as usual

By Richard Smith These are things I’m keeping an eye on, or trying to find out more about. That isn’t a prediction that any of them will blow up, nor that nothing else will, just a round-up of the bees in my bonnet. If you’ve been following Naked Capitalism you are up to speed on […]

Bewildering Array of Choices for any American Voters Who Think the First Amendment might be Applicable to Wikileaks

Quote-mining by Richard Smith Conservative Republican Mitch McConnell (Googling +”Mitch McConnell” +Assange, 415,000 hits) takes a Republican conservative position: I think the man is a high-tech terrorist. Democrat Joe Biden (Googling +”Joe Biden” +Assange, 929,000 hits) initially finesses the principle question, on 18th December: I don’t think there’s any substantive damage. …but just after that […]

Another nasty surprise from Ireland’s Anglo and AIB, via the EC

Tucked away in the EC’s press release on aid for Irish banks, we find this little gem: Anglo Irish Bank will furthermore receive a guarantee covering certain off-balance sheet liabilities (derivatives, clearing transactions and transactional arrangements) that will ensure that Anglo Irish Bank can continue its daily activities as a going concern. There’s nothing here […]

The British Mess (III): Bank of England Tiptoes Around Sovereign Risk Worries

By Richard Smith The latest Bank of England Financial Stability Report is worth decoding. My last post on the UK sketched a scenario in which the very large 2011 funding programme for UK banks, discussed in the June BoE FSR (back issues all available here), could be quite problematic, in adverse markets. I hinted that […]

With Friends Like Moody’s…

Good to see Moody’s rebuilding its franchise. Their aura of mystery is still reassuringly intact, two years after the subprime CDO ratings fiasco; as a bemused Firedoglake notes, in connection with two diametrically opposed, and politically charged, opinions about the tax cuts and their projected effect on the US credit rating: Can someone tell me […]

Collateral damage – more than Paul Jackson’s reputation at risk

Events during this financial crisis have repeatedly displayed a degree of disrespect for various pundits’ authority; every so often another pulpit is toppled. So spare a thought for the pundits, the most unmourned of crisis casualties. One skips through the roll of slight miscues (“Lehman repo looks solid”, April ’08), shame (“believe Fuld, Lehman bears […]

Bloggergoof

I claimed the other day, from memory, that the Landesbanken plus Deutsche had dumped EUR35Bn in the Iceland crash. That’s a spectacular claim, but unfortunately not at all true. A bit of polite throatclearing from commenter Hubert got me to dig through the bankruptcy wind-ups of Kaupthing, Glitnir and Landsbanki. Based on a wikileak of […]

The man with the magic words

…turns out to be Trichet, this week, anyway; the bond markets are soothed. Two key comments: We have got a monetary federation. We need quasi-budget federation as well. a statement which ought to have all the Eurosceptics, and many others, chorussing “told ya”; then Mr Trichet also hinted that the ECB could extend its purchase […]

The plank in Schäuble’s eye

From the look of it, the Irish bailout is taking another chunk of another one of FT Alphaville stalwart Neil Hume’s weekends. From Peston European finance ministers are struggling to reach agreement on the interest rate to be paid by Ireland for the €85bn of rescue finance it is set to receive from the EU […]

Systemic coupling round-up

Time to count up the systemic implications of the Irish crisis, following up on some of today’s links and other news. First, the usual contagion to Portugal and Spain is now in full swing, propelled by another barrage of bumbling Euroannouncements: Weber announced that if necessary, the EU would increase the ceiling of the EFSF […]

Ramming home the lesson from Ireland

Spotted this just after today’s Ireland post. I reckon NC’s UK and US readers and others will have got the idea of ‘extend and pretend’ , aka ‘forbearance’ already; always good to see it getting called out again though.

“Waiting for Godot”, or “Endgame”?

No formal announcement yet, but some presumably well-sourced rumours about the size of the Irish bailout (EUR 85Bn), and the rate (7%, via the redoubtable Twitterer on all matters Irish @LorcanRK). While we await the budget statement, there are reasons to suspect, or hope, that the bailout, like Godot, will never come, because it’s failing […]

The British mess (II)

First, let’s have a quick trip down memory lane. The financial crisis got going properly in the UK in August 2007, with the ABCP seize-up leading to the run on Northern Rock in September. Congdon illustrates how dependent banks had become on wholesale funding: At June 2007 UK banks’ cash deposits at the Bank of […]

Ring a Ring o’ Roses

Some geographical and economic clarifications from politicians, officials and commentators: 1. Spain is not Greece – Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance Minister, ~February, 2010. 2. Portugal is not Greece – The Economist, 22nd April, 2010. 3. Greece is not Ireland – George Papaconstantinou, Greek Finance Minister, 8th November 2010. 4. Spain is neither Ireland nor Portugal […]