Category Archives: China

Even the Chinese Can Tell the TransPacific Partnership is Unlikely to Get Done

You know it’s bad when parties who aren’t at the negotiating table can tell a deal is going pear-shaped.

Chinese Bond Default Rattles Markets; Harbinger of More Credit Woes?

A corporate bond default should hardly be a headline dominating-event unless the default in question is of a particularly large concern, or is tightly coupled (as in could, Lehman-style, trigger more distress) or is a precursor of things to come.

Wage Shares Fall in the US, Germany and Many Other Countries While Financial Shocks Hit Emerging Economies

ves here. This Real News Network interview with Yilmaz Akyuz, formerly the Director of the Division on Globalization and Development Strategies at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), describes how the problems that produced the financial crisis have morphed into new, no less troubling problems. One key part of this discussion focuses on how China has adapted to its considerably smaller trade surplus, and why having Germany as the new excessive exporter poses new perils to the global economy.

Emerging Markets Contagion Starting to Hit Eurozone

Emerging markets-related disruption continued overnight, as the Nikkei fell nearly 2%, pounded by the rise in the yen due to its status as a flight currency. Other Asian markets took a hit as well, with only Australia emerging relatively unscathed.

George Mangus Warns of Broad Impact of Emerging Markets Turbulence

In the runup to the global financial crisis, George Magnus, who was then chief economist at UBS, was one of the most insightful commentators and was early to call how bad things might get. He’s back to sound alarms about the emerging markets turmoil.

The Empire’s New Asian Clothes – America’s Strategic Rebalance As Covert Retreat

Yves here. This article provide perspective on Obama’s unseemly anxiety to push through the toxic trade deal known as the TransPacific Partnership. the TPP is that it is a crucial part of Obama’s “pivot to Asia” strategy. One of its aims is to isolate China by creating a trade bloc that excludes the Middle Kingdom. The article below helps explain why non-military means of reinforcing US hegemony are particularly important now.

The Emerging Markets Rout Abates….for Now

Journalists and laypeople tend to use stock markets at their proxy for economic and financial market conditions. The performance of US stock markets looked like an encouraging return to a semblance of normalcy after last week’s squall, until a wave of selling in the final hour, with 600 million shares of volume, pushed the major indexes solidly into negative territory. As of this writing, that barometer is still a bit wobbly. Australia was down 1.26% overnight and the Nikkei off .17%. But Chinese and the Singapore markets are up, as are European and the S&P and DJIA indices.

But some of the explanations are less persuasive than others.

Will China Stop Taper?

That is the question today. Let’s first ask markets.

China Credit Worries Rise as Large Shadow Banking Default Looms

China faces the first big test of its shadow banking system, in the form of a pending default. How is it likely to fare?

How Serious is China’s Shadow Banking/Wealth Management Products Problem?

George Soros has caused a bit of a frisson by calling China the greatest risk to the global economy. The Chinese shadow banks are the trouble spot to watch.

Ilargi: The Taper And The China Credit Power Struggle Squeeze

Yves here. We described the funding mismatch with Chinese wealth management products during the first liquidity crunch earlier in the year, but given that most readers aren’t familiar with these structures, it’s good to have another summary as to how they work and more discussion of why they pose a risk to the Chinese economy. They are troublingly similar to structured investment vehicles, which were one of the detonators of the credit crisis in the US and UK.

Steve Keen: The International Financial Architecture

In this video, Steve Keen reviews the history of Keynes’ proposed international currency, Bancor, and why it failed to come to fruition at Bretton Woods.

Michael Pettis: Forget the Plenum

ves here. Pettis highlights the difficulties of restructuring the Chinese economy to feature more small business lending and consumption and calls them “political.” I’m not sure I agree fully.

Randy Wray: What If China Dumps US Treasury Bonds? Paul Krugman Inches Toward MMT

Our deficit hysterians love to raise the specter of China.

Your Humble Blogger Discusses the Pending Trade Deals and JP Morgan on Le Show!

I really enjoy speaking with Harry Shearer, both for his engaging manner and his thorough preparation. I also hope you’ll see fit to circulate this interview, since the more attention we can bring to this plan to legalize corporate pillage, the better.