Category Archives: China

Gold Crash Signals End but End of What?

Whither gold?

Bill Greider on Why Paul Krugman Was So Wrong

A good piece in the Nation by Bill Greider, which focuses on Krugman’s long standing support of free trade, and how, contrary to his predictions, the results were not positive for ordinary American workers.

BRICs Cook the Climate (Part Two)

By Patrick Bond, a political economist with longstanding research interests and NGO work in urban communities and with global justice movements in several countries. He teaches political economy and eco-social policy, directs the Centre for Civil Society and is involved in research on economic justice, geopolitics, climate, energy and water. Cross posted from Triple Crisis

A secondary objective of the Copenhagen deal – aside from avoiding emissions cuts the world so desperately requires – was to maintain a modicum of confidence in carbon markets. Especially after the 2008 financial meltdown and rapid decline of European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, BASIC leaders felt renewed desperation to prop up the ‘Clean Development Mechanism’ (CDM), the Third World’s version of carbon trading

Wolf Richter: A CEO Explains Why He Sold A German Soul To The Chinese

Yves here. I find this story of a Chinese acquisition gone pear shaped interesting for several reasons. Since academic research consistently finds that the majority of acquisitions are losers for the buyers, it’s not a surprise that the deal did not work out. But this one looks to be a particularly extreme fail. Having worked a bit on international deals, and for companies operating in foreign markets, cross border transactions have an even lower success rate than domestic ones. The big reason is the one mentioned here, which is marked cultural incompatibility between the seller and buyer. Here the Chinese did less badly than they could have (they could have tried forcing Chinese practices on the German operation, which would have destroyed the value of the asset). But the logic of the transaction was unclear. Was it technology transfer? Consolidation? It appears both might have been goals, and neither happened very much.

The Dangers of a Chinese Financial Crisis

Yves here. Even the China bulls are coming to see the financial system as a risk factor.

China’s Exploding Debt

By C.P. Chandrasekhar, Professor of Economics, School of Social Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India. Cross posted from Triple Crisis

If the international media are to be believed the world, still struggling with recession, is faced with a potential new threat emanating from China. Underlying that threat is a rapid rise in credit provided by a “shadow banking” sector to developers in an increasingly fragile property market.

China Decides that South China Sea Oil is a National Asset

By John Daly, a non-resident scholar at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies and chief analyst at OilPrice. Cross posted from OilPrice

While the Western press is fixated on both recent North Korean nuclear tests and Beijing’s recent skirmishes with Japan over the Senkaku (“Diaoyu” in Chinese) islands, other maritime issues have developed further south, where China is involved in sovereignty disputes over the Spratly islands’ 750 islands, islets, atolls, cays and outcroppings with the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.

Pettis: China and the History of US Growth Models

Yves here. This is an important piece, in that it bucks conventional wisdom about growth and economic development in several ways.

The Island Dispute Between China and Japan: The Other Side of the Story

By Robert H. Wade, professor of political economy at the London School of Economics. Cross posted from Triple Crisis

The current dispute between China and Japan over a few barren islands inhabited by goats – called Diaoyu in Chinese and Senkaku in Japanese – looks at first sight to be a mere territorial spat. But it has escalated to a very dangerous level in recent months — first words, then actions of police forces, now actions of air forces, and, behind all these, both sides have mobilised all their military, political, economic, diplomatic, and cultural energies to engage in the dispute. It is more fundamental than normal territorial disputes, because the very identities of the two countries are at stake.

China Economic Paradigm Nearing End Game

GMO, in a compelling analysis, not only confirms the skeptics’ case but provides reasons why the Chinese growth model faces an end game. While it may not be nigh, it seems to be closer than most people think.

Hugh Hendry: ‘We’re in the death spiral of mercantilism’

You have to give a fund manager points for admitting to having a “history of contentious posturing.” Hugh You have to give a fund manager points for admitting to having a “history of contentious posturing.” Hugh Hendry’s also a reformed gold bug, which shows an unusual flexibility of thinking (once people join the gold cult, they seldom leave). Even if you don’t necessarily agree, his talk will serve as a useful grist for thought (hat tip Ian Fraser). Hendry discusses the end of an broadly adopted national strategy, mercantilism, and what he sees as the implications.

Quelle Surprise! QE Zombifies Economies

Nobody has wanted to heed the lesson of post bubble Japan until way too late.

Has Chinese Currency Manipulation Succeeded in Breaking Japanese Manufacturers?

Tonight’s Financial Times has a eye-popping story, that the survival of Sharp, one of Japan’s top consumer products manufacturers, is in doubt:

Another Bearish China Signal? Expats Starting to Decamp

Sober Look has an intriguing little post up on how expats are leaving China and why that is a bearish portent.

Debunking the “It’s China’s Fault That American Worker Real Wages are Falling” Myth

Even in the cases where the outsourcing cost savings were significant, the idea that American wages were way out of line with Chinese wages and the only future for American workers was grinding wages lower and lower to compete with China has been oversold.