What a difference seven years makes. No one had a problem with Japan having super low interest rates and stoking a global carry trade, nor with the US running overly loose monetary policy that led to a real estate bubble that spread its impact beyond our borders via the creation of toxic mortgage product sold […]
Read more...By Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns Is it just me or did Secretary Geithner just talk out of other side of his mouth? Today he wrote an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal with two Asian leaders to mark a big meeting of APEC (Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation) in Singapore. The WSJ article started out […]
Read more...By Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns I would be especially interested to hear the views of NC’s Asian readers on this post because Japan and China are usually considered antagonists with a long and sordid past. Andy Xie thinks the Fed is on an inflationary path. Last month, he wrote an article in Caijing which […]
Read more...By Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed. Since then, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side. The G-20 statement contained seven principles to guide policy during the balance of the crisis period. However, the agreed […]
Read more...This tidbit, from a report on impressions of conditions in China, via a steel buyer who has been making the rounds in Asia (hat tip reader Michael) is more significant than it appears. High inflation levels in China (and the powers that be seem to get worried when it goes over 11%-12%) is consistent with […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. Earlier today I wrote a post featuring comments by Marc Faber as I like to do from time to time. In this particular case Dr. Faber was waxing prosaically about an eventual bankruptcy of the U.S. government. His money quote was: “Next station is when the U.S. government […]
Read more...By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. You know all about the subprime, alt-a, option arm, and commercial real estate crises. You’re well-aware of the house of cards built with credit default swaps, securitized assets and other exotic investments. You’ve heard about the massive debt overhang threatening individuals, companies and the country as a whole, and […]
Read more...Whoops, that was the old brand, and it was to be led by Japan. The results were less than happy since Japan was not prepared to take “no” for an answer. But this time around, necessity as well as opportunity are leading China, Japan, and Korea to discuss moving forward on closer economic ties. In […]
Read more...An unannounced but evidently coordinated effort to arrest or at least slow the fall of the dollar is underway. The Financial Times indicated that Asian central banks were aggressive dollar buyers on Thursday, but the information came via currency traders rather than an official pronouncement. Thailand, Malaysia and Taiwan made substantial purchases; Hong Kong and […]
Read more...Many US commentators blithely asset that the US does not need to worry about the reserve currency status of the dollar, since there is allegedly no ready substitute. Yet those arguments ignore the fact that there has already been movement away from the greenback. The Globe and Mail in early 2008 noted: A UBS Investment […]
Read more...It isn’t uncommon for a theme or a trend to dominate how investors and analysts view a particular sector. For instance, when barriers to interstate banking were lowered, then dropped, bank consolidation was all anyone seemed able to think about, even though there were other important developments in the industry. During that era, at McKinsey, […]
Read more...By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. (Rest assured that once Yves is done writing her book, and back posting, or other guest posters write more, I will post less often! ) This essay rounds up arguments for gold as a reasonable investment. China Commentators such as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard and Byron King argue that China’s hunger […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns I have to admit to hyping the debate now swirling about protectionism. I believe that tariffs are not a very good solution to a trade problem as they are likely to result in retaliation and/or escalation. Moreover, they end up protecting small groups at the expense of higher […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns In 2002, the global economy was weak and equity markets around the world were at multi-year lows following the greatest equity bubble and bust in world history. Many policy makers including Alan Greenspan, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, feared a deflationary spiral of Great Depression proportions resulting […]
Read more...It would be better if we were not proven correct on this one, but when the US imposed stiff tariffs on imported tires from China late on Friday, we noted, “This could get interesting in a bad way.” The Chinese responded quickly over the weekend to announce they were investigating US auto parts and chicken, […]
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