Category Archives: China

China Cuts Purchases of Treasuries and Foreign Bonds

We’ve mentioned earlier that it was inevitable that China would reduce its purchases of Treasuries, independent of its desire to diversify away from them. With trade falling (although China still has a high surplus) and hot money inflows reversing direction, China has less reason to buy foreign assets. From the New York Times: Reversing its […]

China Calls for New Reserve Currency

We’ve been treated as being a bit daft when we dared suggest that the dollar’s status as reserve currency was at risk. But after the Fed moved officially to quantitative easing last week (after saying it they might go that route back in December), the euro strengthened. Many have argued that that the ECB lacked […]

China’s Wen Worries About Safety of Treasuries, Asks for Reassurance

Ooh, the posturing is getting interesting. As we noted in Links last night, Timothy Geithner has already climbed down from his “currency manipulator” saber rattling by pressing the G-7 to deliver a much more China-friendly statement on what they’d like to see it do with the yuan (the original version urged letting it appreciate. the […]

China Trade Surplus Falls To 1/8 Prior Month Level

No details up yet on my cheapie version of Bloomberg, will update when more is in. Recall, however, that many analysts foresaw a fall in China’s surplus. It had stayed at near record levels despite falling volumes of trade overall because imports fell faster than exports. Well, many imports are used to produce exports. As […]

Is China’s Wen Whistling in the Dark?

Reader Nivethan pointed to a Bloomberg story, “China Says 8% Growth Within Reach Using $585 Billion Stimulus.” This may be a tad more significant than it appears (I also looked at Xinhua, but got the singular, and probably completely unfair impression that Wen’s speech to the party Congress was of the “give everyone at least […]

Goldman: China Tax Receipts Show Marked Fall in Incomes

Note the wording Goldman used in describing the implications of the decline in income tax revenues in China, via Bloomberg (hat tip reader MIchael): “Tax data show much sharper deceleration in income and consumption in the past few months than suggested by official retail sales or income growth figures,” Goldman Sachs analysts Joshua Lu, Caroline […]

Delusion Watch: 2/19/09

Economy could begin to recover in April, claims Gordon Brown Telegraph. Subhead: “The economy could begin to recover as early as April 2, Gordon Brown has signaled.” If by “recover” one means “temporarily looks as if it is no longer getting worse,” even I might agree that is possible. From Merrill Lynch’s Fund Manager Survey […]

"Asia diesel market seen going from bad to worse"

Although fuel supply trends are only a crude (no pun intended) indicator of economic activity, the reversal of China from stockpiling diesel to being a net exporter is considerable, and demand for diesel is weak. While the steep contango for diesel indicates that traders believe the low prices are temporary, the glut is so large […]

So Much For Stimulus: Chinese Loans Diverted to Stocks, Feeding Rally

The China bulls have commented approvingly on the growth in loans in China, seeing it as a sign of pending recovery, along with an upswing in stock prices. We’ve pointed out that economist and China commentator Michael Pettis has heard quite a few reports that many of these loans were in fact sham transactions to […]

China Showing Signs of Recovery?

It is risky indeed for someone like me, on the other side of the world, commenting on a country with spotty economic data (a function of size and maturity of its information gathering apparatus, as well as possible intent to put lipstick on pigs) to take issue with an emerging consensus. Nevertheless, I will stick […]

China’s Exports Fall 17.5%, Most Since Asian Crisis

The big year to year fall in Chinese exports, at 17.%, far in excess of expectations, was accompanied by an even bigger decline in imports, still leaving China with a near-record monthly trade surplus. Thus, while China’s foreign exchange reserves are continuing to mount, the fall in each side of the trade equation, exports and […]

Chinese Bank Advisor Demands Guarantees on Its Treasury Bond Holdings

On the one hand, the demand by China that the US somehow guarantee its $682 billion in Treasury holding reads like a political and negotiating strategem rolled into one. It reenforces the idea that the economic crisis is the solely the fault of the corrupt, profligate West and it constitutes a demand that the US […]

Rogoff: "Is China Immune to Crisis?"

Kenneth Rogoff, writing for Project Syndicate, argues that if China’s stimulus succeeds, it will do so at the expense of intermediate-term growth. He echoes the widely-held view that China needs to move towards a paradigm that gives more weight to domestic consumption. The problem is, however, that a transition will be awkward and is likely […]

China: Agricultural Ministry Pegs Unemployment Higher than Wen; Official Warns of "Challenges to Social Stabilty"

Before we get to the substance of this post, I feel compelled to address the responses I have increasingly been getting when I post on unemployment in China, particularly demonstrations by workers (who often show up to work, find the factory shuttered and themselves stiffed for their last paycheck) and the fact that many of […]

Willem Buiter: Mismanagement by the Officialdom Can Produce a Depression

To be fair, Willem Buiter’s latest post strives for a bit of gallows humor via its title, “YES WE CAN!! have a global depression if we really continue to work at it…,” before getting down to serious business, namely, that the powers that be risk missing the opportunity to salvage the global economy. What makes […]