Category Archives: Commodities

Satyajit Das: “All Feasts Must Come to an End” – China’s Debt & Investment Fueled Growth (Part 1)

By Satyajit Das, derivatives expert and the author of Extreme Money: The Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives – Revised Edition (2006 and 2010)

The re-emergence of China has dominated recent economic and political discourse. The Chinese economy is forecast to expand by around 60% in the period between 2007 and 2012, compared to around 3% for developed economies. While China’s rise is important, its drivers are frequently misunderstood and poorly analysed.

China’s economic structure is deeply flawed and fragile. The Chinese growth story may be ending. As an old Chinese proverb, probably apocryphal, holds: “There is no feast that does not come to an end.”

Chris Cook: The Ghost of Enron Past Explains Oil Market Manipulation

By Chris Cook, former compliance and market supervision director of the International Petroleum Exchange

I outlined in my recent post my view that the oil market price has been inflated by passive investors whose attempts to ‘hedge inflation’ actually ended up causing it, and have allowed oil producers to manipulate and support the oil market price with fund money to the detriment of oil consumers.

But there has always been a missing link – precisely how has this manipulation been achieved?

9/11 Commissioner and Co-Chair of Congressional Inquiry into 9/11 Say in Sworn Declarations that Saudi Government Linked to 9/11 Attacks

Two Senators with Access to Classified Information Say Saudi Government Backed 9/11 Attack

Brace Yourself for Election-Driven Enforcement Theater: Token Roughing Up of Crisis Bad Banksters, While Corzine Gets a Free Pass

It’s bad enough that we are being subjected to relentless propaganda about how housing is just about to turn the corner and the state-Federal mortgage settlement is such a great deal for homeowners. In fact, as we’ve stressed, and bond investors such as Pimco have reiterated, the deal is above all a back door bailout of the banks.

But to add insult to injury, the chump public will be given ~~bread and circuses~~ enforcement theater to distract it from the fact that the banks are getting a sweetheart deal.

Chris Cook: The Oil End Game

By Chris Cook, former compliance and market supervision director of the International Petroleum Exchange. Cross posted from Asia Times

The end game is about to begin. On the one hand you have the noise and rhetoric. Greedy speculators gouging gasoline prices; mad mullahs preparing to wipe Israel off the map; bunker buster bombs and fleets being positioned; huge demand for oil from the BRIC countries; China’s insatiable thirst for oil; the oil price will head for $200 a barrel and will never again fall below $130 …

On the other hand you have the reality.

Navigating Global Prosperity: An Interview with Paul Davidson

Paul Davidson is America’s foremost post-Keynesian economist. Davidson is currently the Holly Professor of Excellence, Emeritus at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville. In 1978 Davidson and Sydney Weintraub founded the Journal for Post-Keynesian Economics. Davidson is the author of numerous books, the most recent of which is an introduction to a post-Keynesian perspective on the recent crisis entitled ‘The Keynes Solution: The Path to Global Prosperity’.

Interview conducted by Philip Pilkington

Philip Pilkington: Keynes famously claimed that the ideas of economists are extremely powerful and have huge influence on the way policymakers think. What struck me about your book The Keynes Solution was how well you related Keynes’ theoretical ideas to the problems the world is currently facing – and the proposed solutions. Before we talk in any detail about these ideas let me ask you this: to what extent do you think that Keynes was right about the ideas of economists?

Marshall Auerback: Greece – A Default is Better Than the Deal on Offer

By Marshall Auerback, a portfolio strategist and hedge fund manager

Pick your poison. In the words of Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, the choice facing Greece today in the wake of its deal with the so-called “Troika” (the ECB, IMF, and EU) is “to choose between difficult decisions and decisions even more difficult. We unfortunately have to choose between sacrifice and even greater sacrifices in incomparably more dearly.” Of course, Venizelos implied that failure to accept the latest offer by the Troika is the lesser of two sacrifices. And the markets appeared to agree, selling off on news that the deal struck between the two parties was coming unstuck after weeks of building up expectations of an imminent conclusion.

In our view, the market’s judgment is wrong: an outright default might ultimately prove the better tonic for both Greece and the euro zone.

Satyajit Das: Top Secret – The Chinese Envoy’s Briefing Paper On The Australian Economic Outlook (Part II)

By Satyajit Das, derivatives expert and the author of Extreme Money: The Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives – Revised Edition (2006 and 2010)

Your Excellency, I am pleased to present the requested report on the economic outlook for the Great Southern Province of China, currently referred to by the local population as “Australia”. For convenience I will refer to the country by this older name. We will now turn to the outlook.

Satyajit Das: Top Secret – The Chinese Envoy’s Briefing Paper On Australia’s Economy (Part I)

By Satyajit Das, derivatives expert and the author of Extreme Money: The Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives – Revised Edition (2006 and 2010)

Your Excellency, I am pleased to present the requested report on the economic outlook for the Great Southern Province of China, currently referred to by the local population as “Australia”. For convenience I will refer to the country by this older name.

More Evidence that JP Morgan Stuck the Knife in MF Global

The death of MF Global and JP Morgan’s role in its demise is starting to look like a beauty contest between Cinderalla’s ugly sisters. As much as most market savvy observers are convinced that there is no explanation for how MF Global made $1.2 billion in customer funds go poof that could exculpate the firm, JP Morgan’s conduct isn’t looking too pretty either.

Chris Cook: Naked Oil

By Chris Cook, former compliance and market supervision director of the International Petroleum Exchange

All is not as it appears in the global oil markets, which in my view have become entirely dysfunctional and no longer fit for its purpose. I believe that the market price is about to collapse as it did in 2008 and that this will mark the end of an era in which the market has been run by and on behalf of trading and financial intermediaries.

Mark Ames: Failing Up With Joshua Foust – Meet The “Evil Genius” Massacre-Denier Who Shills For War Profiteers

Yves here. We cross posted a piece by Mark Ames on a massacre of Kazakh oil workers striking against KazMunaiGaz, a company “owned” by the son-in-law of the Kazakh president for life. Its American JV partners are led by Chevron.

The story got a surprising amount of pushback here and on Ames’ site, and some of reaction did not look organic. That led Ames to do further digging, and the resulting piece below gives a window into how big corporations go about neutralizing embarrassing news coverage. The more the public knows about the modus operandi of people like Foust, the faster they will be forced to seek more honorable lines of employment.

In this blogger’s humble opinion, this piece is a gold standard takedown of a truly deserving target.

Wilkerson on the Iraq “Exit”

This is a very useful, as in jaundiced, discussion by Lawrence Wilkerson on Real News Network, of the US effort to “end” its engagement in Iraq. Wilkerson covers the bigger strategic game, including the perspective of Big Oil, other major states in the Middle East, and China.

Corzine’s Know-Nothing MF Global Defense

Jon Corzine’s evasive testimony before the Senate Agriculture Committee was scripted so as to lay foundations for his defense against customer and possibly shareholder suits and reduce the already very low odds of an indictment.

Although I’ll touch on other interesting elements shortly, the key item from his presentation was one that the New York Times’ Dealbook noted:

Has China Just Hit Stall Speed?

The Financial Times reports that the Chinese sovereign wealth fund Huijin will buy shares in the four biggest banks in a move to goose the flagging stock market, which is at its lowest point since early 2009. This is the first time the fund has mad this sort of intervention since the onset of the crisis.