Category Archives: Credit markets

Greece-Troika Train Wreck Shaping Up for July Despite IMF Leak

As hard as it seems to believe, the IMF is shaping up as a less bad actor in the continuing Greece austerity saga. Germany finance minister Wolfgang Schauble, by contrast, seems emboldened by Merkel’s fallen stature, which couldn’t come at a worse time for Greece.

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Good Booms, Bad Booms: Why Only Some Credit Booms End in a Crisis

Credit booms are not rare and usually precede financial crises. However, some end in a crisis while others do not. This column argues that credit booms start with an increase in productivity, which subsequently falls much faster during ‘bad booms’. When this decline is severe enough, it changes the informational regime in credit markets, leading to a drying up of credit. A crisis may be the result of an exhausted credit boom and not necessarily of a negative productivity shock.

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