Category Archives: Credit markets

Greece’s Fate in ECB’s Hands if Eurogroup Talks Fail

As most readers know well, Greece made concessions yesterday to the Eurogroup that, although contested as to how far they went, were seen as big enough concessions to win the support of Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem and Italy. But Germany’s Wolfgang Schauble almost immediately rejected them, setting the stage for a showdown today. As we’ve discussed from the outset, the biggest bone of contention continues to be “conditionality,” otherwise known as structural reforms. Greece wants to be able to revise some measures as long as it can still meet its primary surplus target. Germany insists a deal is a deal and Greece must reaffirm all the terms of its existing agreement.

The meeting is set to start in Brussels at 3 PM local time, so we’ll know soon enough how things turn out. The two sides are making friendlier noises as of this morning, but we’ve seen these public displays of collegiality before, only to be followed by negotiation ruptures.

Two New Papers Say Big Finance Sectors Hurt Growth and Innovation

In a bit of synchronicity, two new papers confirm the long-held suspicion that Wall Street is sucking the life out of Main Street.

The “Vultures” are Still Circling Argentina

Argentina’s infamous “vulture funds”, as the holdout creditors represented by Paul Singer’s NML Capital are affectionately known, are back at their usual antics of trying to claw back from the Argentine government what they (and the US court system) see as rightfully theirs.

Negotiation Breakdown Exposes Widening Rift Between Germany and Greece

The negotiations between Greece and the Eurogroup are on a worse trajectory than conventional wisdom would have you believe.

Greece, Its International Creditors and the Euro

his is an excellent background piece on how Greece got where it is and how its various bailouts were structured. It also helps explain the past and current roles the various members of the Troika play and discusses the prospects for Greece achieving its aims.

Eurogroup Talks Terminated; Greece “Won’t Take Orders on Bailout”

As we indicated, we were doubtful that a deal with Greece on its bailout could get done, since if nothing else the two sides had irreconcilable positions on structural reforms. That was one of the biggest reasons for Greece rejecting the idea of extending the current bailout, that they did not want the strings attached, such as continued privatizations and further “progress” on labor-crushing market reform. The only way an agreement could have been reached would have been for Greece to capitulate on these issues, which seemed unlikely given how Syriza had risen to 80% approval ratings in the polls based on its Troika-defying stance.

So it is not surprising to learn that the bailout talks are over, with no agreement reached. But what is suprising, and not encouraging, is that if anything the Eurogroup hardened its stance against Greece and expected it to capitulate.

Robert Parenteau: Get a TAN, Yanis: A Timely Alternative Financing Instrument for Greece

TAN, or tax anticipation notes, would way be a for Greece to give itself more fiscal spending wriggle room without violating Eurozone rules. That will likely be necessary if Monday’s meeting in Brussels results in no extension of the current Eurozone bailout.

#BlackstoneEvicts

#BlackstoneEvicts is one of the messaging vehicles for a loosely-organized groups of protestors in Spain and the US who oppose private equity kingpin Blackstone’s aggressive evictions and rental abuses.

Greece, Eurozone Ministers at Fundamental Loggerheads

Bizarrely, there were leaks and news reports of progress all day on the meeting of Eurogroup ministers on a bailout memorandum. But just before 6:30 PM, the Greece government announced that any discussion of a bailout memo was off.

Eurogroup Ministers to Syriza: Drop Dead

Even though the US has waded into the Greece versus Troika impasse to press Eurozone officials to soften their position on austerity, the battle lines seem only to get harder.

Outlook Darkens for Syriza and Greece

Greece’s finances look to be more precarious than previously thought, which puts Syriza in an even weaker bargaining position.

Obama, Treasury Pushing Back Against Troika Grexit Threats; Bernie Sanders Presses for Fed to Prod ECB

The Administration realizes the risk of Grexit is real and is trying to fend that off. But even if they succeed, don’t expect that to add up to much in the way of relief for Greece.

Wolf Richter: Wall Street Has a Dream About the Price of Oil

Is Wall Street’s upbeat take on the prospect for a continued recovery in oil prices credible?

Is Syriza About to Score a Tactical Win Against the Troika?

Those who were hoping that Syriza would be cowed by the ECB’s aggressive moves to shut Greece out of bond markets and Eurozone finance ministers’ unified resistance to the new government’s proposals are no doubt frustrated by its refusal to capitulate. On Sunday, Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras gave a rousing speech reaffirming Syriza’s plans.

Bernie Sanders Asks Janet Yellen to Explain Her Apparent Inaction on Greece

Last week, we wondered why the Fed was tacitly supporting the ECB shellacking of Greece. It appears the same thing occurred to Senator Bernie Sanders.