Category Archives: Credit markets

The Stealth Problem of Predatory Mortgage Modifications

Warning: mortgage modifications can be yet another exercise in bank predation.

Will the Expected End of QE Lead to a Bond Meltdown?

Yesterday, bonds fell sharply due to stronger-than-expected housing price and consumer confidence reports. That reflects the belief that the economy is mending, and as a result, the Fed will deliver on its promise to dial back and then end QE. Ten year Treasury yields rose to the 2.10%-2.11% level. Various commentators claim that rates will zoom higher either right over that point or at 2.25%. How worried should we be?

Dan Kervick: Reserve Balance Misconceptions

Yves here. While it may seem a bit unfair to make an example of Mark Thoma, since the statement he makes about bank reserves is conventional, Kervick’s post is a useful reminder of why this sort of thinking is misleading.

Yanis Varoufakis: Greek Success Story: The latest Orwellian Turn of the Greek Crisis

Greece’s Prime Minister recently flew to China, to woo Chinese investors. In his bid to be persuasive, he adopted a radical narrative: Greece is a Success Story. A country that almost perished in 2012 is now on the mend; on the road to stabilisation and growth; a wonderful opportunity, currently, for investors to pick up ultra cheap investments and to benefit from the forthcoming growth. How much of this is true, however?

David Dayen: FSOC Annual Report Shows Continued Interest in Austerity Bargain Over Reducing Financial System

With Jack Lew now installed at Treasury, I decided to take a look at the annual report of the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), the Dodd-Frank creation that’s supposed to monitor systemic risk. We already know the leanings of the not-so-new regime at Treasury: they think Dodd-Frank worked to secure a more stable financial system, an opinion reiterated Tuesday at a Senate Banking Committee hearing.

David Dayen: SEC Convenes Foot-Dragging Roundtable on Rating Agency Reform, While Securities Issuers Return to Familiar Rating-Shopping Tricks

A few months ago, I wrote a story for The American Prospect about the credit rating agencies, and their thus-far successful effort to ward off any change to their business model, despite their wretched performance during the crisis. This is true even though Dodd-Frank contained a measure, written by Al Franken, to alter the issuer-pays model that incentivizes higher ratings in the pursuit of future profits. The Franken-Wicker rule (the “Wicker” is Republican Senator Roger Wicker) would create a self-regulating organization to randomly assign securities to accredited rating agencies, with more securities over time going to the agencies that rated the most accurately.

David Dayen: Hedgies Bet on Fannie/Freddie Status Quo

The new CBO budget projections showing debt stabilization over the next decade and a reduction of the expected FY 2013 deficit to $642 billion hasn’t been deemed by Washington as a “scandal,” although falling deficits amid high unemployment and below-trend growth is actually, you know, a bit scandalous. But even more unremarked upon is one of the primary reasons for this near-term deficit drop, mentioned in passing by CBO on page 1:

CBO’s estimate of the deficit for this year is about $200 billion below the estimate that it produced in February 2013, mostly as a result of higher-than-expected
revenues and an increase in payments to the Treasury by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Mel Watt, Nominee to Head FHFA, Opposes Administration by Voting to Deregulate Derivatives

Good progressives like MoveOn, New Bottom Line, the Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment, AFR, Elizabeth Warren, and Richard Trumka, head of the AFL-CIO have all fallen in line with Obama’s nomination of Mel Watt, Representative from ~~Bank of America~~ North Carolina.

It might help if they looked harder at Watt. If they were honest about it, there’s not much to like.

Lynn Parramore: Your Retirement for a Bottle of Champagne – How Wall Street Fraudsters Ripped You Off, Again

By Lynn Parramore, a senior editor at Alternet. Cross posted from Alternet

The LIBOR price-fixing scam has cost at least $110 million — in the state of Oregon alone!

Congressional Influence as a Determinant of Subprime Lending

A relatively unforeseen implosion in housing markets figured prominently in the 2007 meltdown in capital markets and the subsequent downturn in the global economy. This column presents new research on the political geography of subprime lending. Congressional leaders – as well as other recipients of campaign contributions – may have benefited from gains to trade in the direction, pricing, and sizing of subprime mortgage loans.

Abigail Field: Is Schneiderman’s Plan to Sue Bank of America and Wells Over Mortgage Settlement Violations a Wet Noodle Lashing?

By Abigail Field, an attorney and writer

Eric Schneiderman gets buyers’ remorse. But can he do anything about it?

Did the Euro Kill Governance in the Periphery?

Yves here. We’re a little EU-centric tonight as a result of a wealth of particularly good material, which is often a sign that stresses are rising (there was tons of good material in the runup to the crisis as well).

By Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Professor of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Luis Garicano, Research Fellow with the Productivity and Innovation Programme, Centre for Economic Performance; Professor of Economics and Strategy, Departments of Management and of Economics. Cross posted from VoxEU

By the end of the 1990s, under the incentive of Eurozone entry, most peripheral European countries were busy undertaking structural reforms and putting their fiscal houses in order. This column argues that the arrival of the euro, and the subsequent interest-rate convergence, loosened a tide of cheap money that reversed the incentives for further reforms. As a result, by the end of the euro’s first decade, the institutions and governance in the Eurozone periphery were in worse shape than they were at the start of the decade.

France Versus Reality

By Delusional Economics, who is determined to cleanse the daily flow of vested interests propaganda to produce a balanced counterpoint. Cross posted from MacroBusiness.

Yesterday I noticed an interesting paragraph over at efxnews about France and its parallels with what many see in the market today:

It’s a big surprise for some that France is high on the crisis susceptibility index…

Bank “Zombie Title” Rises, Hurting Communities and Borrowers, as OCC and Fed Sit Pat

We’ve written before about the perverse phenomenon known as “zombie title.” Kate Berry of American Banker provides an update.

Vice Chairman of Chinese Accounting Association Warns Chinese Local Debt Could Create Bigger Crisis than US Housing Implosion

On the one hand, Bloomberg today tells us retail demand for stocks is as hot as ever. On the other, we have someone well-placed in China telling the world that its local debt is a train wreck waiting to happen, a classic Minksy Ponzi unit, but the timing of the unraveling is uncertain.