For the record, I actually do NOT like it when markets fall apart, even when I anticipate it and am correctly positioned for it (2007 and 2008). It’s very upsetting to watch. Every savvy investor I know has been expecting a mild to meaningful correction. So independent of its seriousness, the Dubai World frisson could […]
Read more...Enjoy!
Read more...By Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns Barack Obama has now come clean about his thinking on why his administration has decided to focus first on reducing the deficit and next on jobs. He fears a double-dip recession will occur if foreigners lose confidence in the U.S. dollar, causing interest rates to spike. This is nonsense […]
Read more...John Hempton illustrates the operation of an underdiscussed cognitive bias, social validation, which social psychologist Robert Cialdini described as one of the six primary influence techniques in his classic Influence: The Art of Persuasion. And it can be deadly, as Hempton warns: Saturday afternoon and I had volunteer lifesaving duty. My (broken) collarbone is knitted […]
Read more...I don’t know if any readers know Jay Leonhart, but his “Sometimes I Think” from Salamander Pie is my theme song. I cannot relate to a lot of behavior considered normal. So I hate to personalize this discussion, but the subject of this post involves one of those areas of human activity I find to […]
Read more...By Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns Is it just me or did Secretary Geithner just talk out of other side of his mouth? Today he wrote an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal with two Asian leaders to mark a big meeting of APEC (Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation) in Singapore. The WSJ article started out […]
Read more...By Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns I would be especially interested to hear the views of NC’s Asian readers on this post because Japan and China are usually considered antagonists with a long and sordid past. Andy Xie thinks the Fed is on an inflationary path. Last month, he wrote an article in Caijing which […]
Read more...By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. The Wall Street Journal admits this week that economists blew it: The pain of the financial crisis has economists striving to understand precisely why it happened and how to prevent a repeat… The crisis exposed the inadequacy of economists’ traditional tool kit, forcing them to revisit questions many had […]
Read more...By Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns This comes via the FT: Saudi Arabia on Wednesday decided to drop the widely used West Texas Intermediate oil contract as the benchmark for pricing its oil, dealing a serious blow to the New York Mercantile Exchange. The decision by the world’s biggest oil exporter could encourage other producers […]
Read more...Enjoy (hat tip Michael Panzner):
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns John Meriwether, the 62-year old former Salomon bond trader and LTCM wizard is back for, what is this, his fourth go round. For those of you who don’t remember the 1980s, John Meriwether was the biggest of the ‘big swinging dicks’ on Wall Street, leading Salomon Brothers to […]
Read more...By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. In 2000, America was described as the sole remaining superpower – or even the world’s “hyperpower”. Now we’re in real trouble (at the very least, you have to admit that we’re losing power and wealth in comparison with China). How did it happen so fast? As everyone knows, the […]
Read more...By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. The battle to reform the American banking system needs to include reimposing the barrier between investment banking and depository banking (Glass-Steagall), pay incentives based on what is best for Americans and not just the top executives, the end of too big to fail, and other changes which are frequently […]
Read more...I have to admit, I have a weakness for the intersection of the daft and science: Male readers will no doubt assume that this means the original owner of the gas mask bra must strip in the case of emergency, and that that the real point of this exercise. But the bra was designed by […]
Read more...It isn’t uncommon for a theme or a trend to dominate how investors and analysts view a particular sector. For instance, when barriers to interstate banking were lowered, then dropped, bank consolidation was all anyone seemed able to think about, even though there were other important developments in the industry. During that era, at McKinsey, […]
Read more...