Category Archives: Currencies

Can Eurobanks Take a Greek Default?

The markets did not react well to the Friday combo plate of weaker than expected European growth, Chinese tightening ahead of the anticipated schedule, and less than convincing remarks regarding what if anything the EU intends to do about its little looming sovereign debt crisis. And top it off by having Greece PM Papandreou launch […]

Devaluing Currencies May Not Be Such a Great Economic Cure After All

Reader Swedish Lex points out an important implication of a recent VoxEU post on the Nordic economic model and how it fared in the crisis: The Nordic countries – Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden – are champions of free trade and open markets… The Nordics have all had different monetary regimes since the euro. […]

China’s Burgeoning Local Debt Means Debt, Banking System Risk Understated

Victor Shih has done some serious analytical work to try to get a handle on the magnitude of China’s local debt. His post, which included extracts from his op-ed in the Asian Wall Street Journal, shows that some of the narratives about China are woefully incomplete. The whole post is very much worth reading, but […]

Wray: The Federal Budget is NOT like a Household Budget – Here’s Why

By L. Randall Wray, a Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City who also writes for New Deal 2.0 Whenever a demagogue wants to whip up hysteria about federal budget deficits, he or she invariably begins with an analogy to a household’s budget: “No household can continually spend more than its income, and […]

Goldman Helped Greece Disguise Deficit

Readers may know that one point of contention in the worries about Greece’s deficits is that it had hidden the fact that it violated Maastricht rule that fine eurozone countries whose fiscal deficits exceed 3% of GDP. How was this subterfuge achieved? While the Greek government engaged in some bogus accounting on its own, it […]

Germany Backs Greek Rescue to Save German Banks (Update: Germany Says No Decision Made)

Equities and commodities markets rallied on the belief that Greece would be rescued, and that notion is increasingly looking accurate. The Telegraph provides an update (hat tip Swedish Lex): Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister, has asked officials to prepare a plan in time for a summit of EU leaders on Thursday, according to reports in […]

Are Greek Sovereign Debt Tremors a Start of a New Phase of the Crisis?

After the months of buoyant markets, a return to crisis-type headlines seems troublingly familiar, even though the perturbations of the last day or so are a pale shadow of the worst months of the crisis. And some are making the bull case. For instance, a headline at Clusterstock trumpetss, “Yesterday’s Bloodshed Sent The VIX Soaring […]

Should Germany Quit the EU Rather Than Rescue Greece?

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard today has his usual type of offering: extreme, but nevertheless based on a valid observation, on his favorite hobbyhorse, the EMU. His key observation comes at the end: EMU architects were warned in the early 1990s that monetary union would prove unworkable as constructed. They scoffed, sure that any crisis could be exploited […]

“Why Bernanke’s Defense of Super Low Interest Rates Does Not Hold Up”

By Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed. Since then, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side. A week ago, in Atlanta, Bernanke responded to his critics, including John Taylor of Taylor Rule fame (the Taylor […]

Simon Johnson: “The Worst is Yet To Come”

I must say, it’s quite amusing to watch Simon Johnson. He has an unabashedly bearish message…for 2010! And he delivers it in a sunny, enthusiastic tone. His hosts are not too keen about it, but the fact that he is so bloody upbeat about his gloomsterism leaves them a bit flummoxed.

Roubini v. Gross on Outlook for 2010

I saw this item on RGE Monitor (Nouriel Roubini’s blog/economic analysis website) and was gobsmacked: Greetings from RGE! A couple months ago, in a widely read FT op-ed, Nouriel Roubini warned that the “mother of all carry trades,” one funded in U.S. dollar denominated debt, could pump up asset bubbles around the world… When uncovered […]

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Apocalypse 2010

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is nothing if not decisive in his views, and has a undisguised fondness for the bearish perspective. But he was correct on the 2008 inflation/commodities headfake, saying repeatedly that deflationary forces would prevail when that was decidedly a minority view. He is also a Euro-skeptic, and I’m less comfortable with that position. The […]

“Reviving Confidence in the American Economy – China, Investment and the Deficit Hawks”

By Robert Johnson, former chief economist of the Senate Banking Committee and Senior Economist of the Senate Budget Committee who writes at New Deal 2.0. Since the early 1980s, rises in the living standard of middle class United States citizens have not kept up with the gains in labor productivity. Wages in the middle class […]

“What’s in Store for 2010”

By Bruce Krasting, a former foreign exchange and derivatives trader and hedge fund manager. Mohammad said, “One cannot foretell the future”. I think he was on to something. What looks predictable rarely happens. There are always surprises. I have been tripped up so many times. The following are not predictions of things that will happen. […]