Category Archives: Economic fundamentals

Greek Debt Sustainability: The Devil is in the Tails

The debate over Greek debt sustainability is muddied by the fact that different analysts use different definitions. But once you use realistic assumptions, as in “tails risks” are actually pretty likely, Greek debt is obviously not “sustainable”.

Will the Germans Derail the Tentative Greek Third Bailout?

Human dynamics, which over time played right into the Germans’ and other hardliners’ hands in the earlier chapters of the Greek bailout talks, may now be working against them.

Turbulence and Stability in Financial Markets: China in Recent Times

China is a case study of how liberalization of financial markets has never contributed to stability.

Australian Trade Minister: TPP “Trade” Deal Unlikely

When a Liberal government in Australia won’t back Obama’s “deal is near” party line on the TPP, you know it’s on the verge of being officially dead.

Saudi Oil Strategy: Brilliant Or Suicide?

Does it make sense to look at the Saudi strategy within the oil industry alone, or do analysts need to start factoring in deflationary economic policies around the world?

Greece Says It Has Reached a Deal with Creditors; New Research Says Germany Comes Out Ahead from Lending to Greece Even with 100% Default

Greece and its creditors have reached agreement on key terms for a so-called “third bailout”

Frack Now, Pay Later: A New Era In U.S. Oil?

Oilfield services providers like Halliburton and Schlumberger are so desperate to keep the fracking party going that they are extending credit to already-levered frackers.

Wolf Richter: China’s Hard Landing Suddenly Gets a Lot Rougher

Despite the 7% GDP growth published and hotly defended by the Chinese government, it is increasingly clear that the country is beset with a host of immense problems, after a debt-fueled binge of overbuilding and over-stimulating.

David Sirota: Hillary Clinton Is Running Away from Her “Free Trade” Record

Yet again, HIllary Clinton tries to distance herself from her “sell out the middle class” policies, this time on “free trade”.

Bill Black: Republican Candidates Agree that the System is Rigged for the Rich

The Republican candidates for President all made shameless appeals for even more plutocracy, in particular preferential treatment for the rich.

Grexit Stumbling Block: International Courts Likely to Rule Against Forced Contract Redenomination

If Greece decides to exit the euro and abrogate contracts, it is not likely to fare well in the tidal wave of lawsuits and arbitration cases that would ensue.

Greece’s Debt Burden Can and Must be Lightened Within the Euro

A proposal for breaking Greece’s vicious debt cycle.

China’s Stock Market Collapse

Those who are looking only at Greece and the crazy behaviour of the European Union may well be looking in the wrong direction to identify the next big crisis as it comes.