Category Archives: Economic fundamentals

Greece Shows the Limits of Austerity in the Eurozone. What Now?

Mario Seccareccia, professor of economics at the University of Ottawa, has been outspoken in his warnings that austerity policies have the potential to smash economies and spread untold human misery. He has challenged deficit hawks and emphasized the need for strong government investment in things like jobs, education, health care, and infrastructure if economies are to prosper. Here he talks about why what happened to Greece was entirely predictable, why the Greeks were right to reject austerity in the recent election, and what challenges the country faces in forging a sustainable path forward with the left-wing Syriza party at the helm.

Mathew D. Rose: Hope for Greece, and Perhaps for Europe Too

Monday morning I encountered a word in a number of newspapers that I have not read regarding the European Union for years: Hope. The occasion was the election in Greece. I suddenly became aware of how long much of this continent has been living in what appears to be a never ending-crisis.

How Wall Street Killed Entrepreneurs

Since it conflicts with Americans’ widely-held image of self-reliance, the fact that new business creation has fallen to the point that even Hungary has a higher rate of starting new ventures than the US hasn’t gotten the attention it warrants in the mainstream media.

Unfortunately, many of the explanations for why that happened are more than a bit off.

Ilargi: Shadow Boxing and Bogus Crisis Triumphalism

The most that officialdom seems willing to do to deal with the crisis is messaging that it is over. Most people can tell how well that is working.

Michael Hudson: The Crisis in Europe and the Machinations of the Rentier Class

This Boom/Bust show features a wide-ranging talk with Michael Hudson about the impact of the Swiss currency shock, the pending Greek elections, the effects of sanctions, and what the deteriorating Ukraine economy means for Europe.

Money Dries Up for Oil and Gas, Layoffs Spread, Write-Offs Start

When money was growing on trees even for junk-rated companies, and when Wall Street still performed miracles for a fee, thanks to the greatest credit bubble in US history, oil and gas drillers grabbed this money channeled to them from investors and refilled the ever deeper holes fracking was drilling into their balance sheets.

Can Abenomics Revive Japan’s Economy?

Most readers are skeptical of Abenomics, and for good reason. This post gives an accessible discussion of why it has not worked.

The World Economy Post 2008

This is a wide-ranging, high level discussion with Yanis Varoufakis about the structural issues facing the world economy. US-based cynics may be amused by the question that expresses skepticism about recent US growth figures.

Big Retail Sales Miss for December Dents Theory that Consumers Will Spend Gas Savings

Mr. Market is having a major sad today largely as a result of disappointing retail sales figures for December, a 0.9% fall, well below the median forecast of analysts suveyed by Bloomberg of a fall of 0.1% and lower than the most bearish forecast of 0.5%. Maybe I should just pay attention to NC reader and shopping maven Li, who told me repeatedly that the retail environment was in poor shape based on the fact that major retail stores were putting through December markdowns vastly ahead of their usual schedule.

Green Growth or No Growth?

Many readers have taken the position that we need to put a brake on growth in order to cut greenhouse gas emissions and reduce consumption of other resources.

In a Real News Network interview, Robert Pollin goes through the math of carbon output and shows why a no growth approach is inadequate.

MMT Versus the CBO: Replacing the Budget Constraint with an Inflation Constraint

Yves here. MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory, is in the process of becoming vastly more visible by virtue of leading MMT advocate, Stephanie Kelton, becoming Chief Economist on the Senate Budget Committee on behalf of ranking member Bernie Sanders. And that means, as this post demonstrates, that MMT has gone through the “first they ignore you, then they ridicule you” stages and is now in the “then then fight you” phase. And one of the chief strategies of MMT opponents is to misrepresent it.

Yanis Varoufakis: Why He is Running for Greek Parliament on the Syriza Ticket

I’m putting up the entire Boom/Bust show in which Yanis Varoufakis appears, in part because the introductory section discusses how stressed oil producers may use secured lending to borrow more money in an effort to ride out the price bust. That would lead to a further drop in the price of any junk bonds or market value of any existing loans on those companies, since the new secured borrowing would be senior to the existing debt.

Could the Oil Bust Last?

A few weeks ago, conventional wisdom was that oil prices might sink lower, but once excess supply was removed from the market, prices would return to the $80 to $100 a barrel level. Now that consensus view is starting to crack.