Category Archives: Economic fundamentals

Marshall Auerback: Greece – A Default is Better Than the Deal on Offer

By Marshall Auerback, a portfolio strategist and hedge fund manager

Pick your poison. In the words of Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, the choice facing Greece today in the wake of its deal with the so-called “Troika” (the ECB, IMF, and EU) is “to choose between difficult decisions and decisions even more difficult. We unfortunately have to choose between sacrifice and even greater sacrifices in incomparably more dearly.” Of course, Venizelos implied that failure to accept the latest offer by the Troika is the lesser of two sacrifices. And the markets appeared to agree, selling off on news that the deal struck between the two parties was coming unstuck after weeks of building up expectations of an imminent conclusion.

In our view, the market’s judgment is wrong: an outright default might ultimately prove the better tonic for both Greece and the euro zone.

The Grexit is coming sooner or later

One more post today, this time on Europe. I wrote this outline for Italy in November before the ECB’s Italian job. I didn’t and still don’t see an Italian exit or default as a baseline. However, a Greek exit for the eurozone has been my baseline for a number of months. Citigroup’s Willem Buiter has […]

Marshall Auerback: Greece and the Rape by the Rentiers

By Marshall Auerback, a portfolio strategist and hedge fund manager. Cross posted from New Economic Perspectives

Here’s the draft of the supposed agreement to “sort out” the Greek debt problem once and for all. According to Bloomberg, here are the essentials:

Marshall Auerback: The Elephant in the Room is Spain, Not Italy

By Marshall Auerback, a portfolio strategist and hedge fund manager. Cross posted from New Economic Perspectives

Another day andthe markets remain fixated on whether Greece comes to a “voluntary” arrangement with its creditors. The key word is“voluntary” because the myth of “voluntary compliance has to be sustained so that those deadly credit default swaps avoid being triggered.

But let’s face it: Greece is a pimple. If the rest of the euro zone could cut itlose with a minimum of systemic risk, Athens would have long gone the way of Troy. The real issue is whether the credit default swaps trigger such a huge mess with the counterparties that it creates renewed systemic stress which more than offsets the benefits to the holders of the CDSs.

The more interesting question is: suppose Greece finally does get a deal?

Daniel Alpert: Tinkerbell Economics – The Confidence Fairy, Pixie Dust and a Sleeping Dragon

By Daniel Alpert, the founding Managing Partner of Westwood Capital. Cross posted from EconoMonitor

While we may be hours away from a partial (and certainly a stopgap) agreement in the talks among the Greek government, the troika and private sector creditors, it is doubtful that a deal will emerge in a fully constructed fashion that will survive its application in the real economy.

It is likely that the only common view amongst participants in the various talks is a desire to try to avoid a disorderly default. Beyond that there is a severe disconnect fostered by parallel realities that seem unable to intersect. Accordingly, a deal that can hold up both in the streets of Greece and in the markets is both illusive and unlikely. Here’s why I think so.

Recently I have had opportunities to meet with and question senior members of the economics establishment within the German government and the broader German intelligentsia. Our meetings were held under Chatham House rules so I can’t name names, but – after several meetings with policy delegations from Germany over the past 60 days – I am prepared to sum up what appears to be the pretty-universally-held German policy position as follows (my apologies if the below evidences some degree of frustration – but these encounters leave me quite chagrined):

Philip Pilkington: Are the Irish People to Blame for Reckless Borrowing?

By Philip Pilkington, a journalist and writer living in Dublin, Ireland

Recently the Irish Taoiseach Enda Kenny pandered to his base once again by saying that the Irish people are to blame for the current state of their economy due to reckless borrowing undertaken during the boom years. I refer not to his base in Ireland, of course — their opinion has hardly mattered since the election — I refer instead to his base among the international financial community. For it is these people that need Kenny’s confession because it is their economic model that has been proved false by the Irish crisis — and so a mea culpa is needed from the victims so that they can avoid the responsibility that they know they bear.

Wolf Richter: Exodus from the Eurozone Debt Crisis

Unemployment is a staggering problem in Eurozone countries that are at the core of the debt crisis. Spain’s jobless rate jumped to 22.8%. Among 16-24 year-olds, it’s an unimaginable 51.4%. In Greece, youth unemployment reached 46.6%. In Portugal, it’s 30.7%, in Italy 30.1%. But highly educated young people have begun leaving in massive numbers—with harsh long-term consequences for their heavily indebted countries.

Satyajit Das: Top Secret – The Chinese Envoy’s Briefing Paper On The Australian Economic Outlook (Part II)

By Satyajit Das, derivatives expert and the author of Extreme Money: The Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives – Revised Edition (2006 and 2010)

Your Excellency, I am pleased to present the requested report on the economic outlook for the Great Southern Province of China, currently referred to by the local population as “Australia”. For convenience I will refer to the country by this older name. We will now turn to the outlook.

Satyajit Das: Top Secret – The Chinese Envoy’s Briefing Paper On Australia’s Economy (Part I)

By Satyajit Das, derivatives expert and the author of Extreme Money: The Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives – Revised Edition (2006 and 2010)

Your Excellency, I am pleased to present the requested report on the economic outlook for the Great Southern Province of China, currently referred to by the local population as “Australia”. For convenience I will refer to the country by this older name.

Philip Pilkington: Is QE/ZIRP Killing Demand?

em>By Philip Pilkington, a journalist and writer living in Dublin, Ireland

Warren Mosler recently ran a very succinct account of why the Fed/Bank of England’s easy monetary policies – that is, the combination of Quantitative Easing and their Zero Interest Rate Programs – might actually be killing demand in the economy.

Warren Mosler recently ran a very succinct account of why the Fed/Bank of England’s easy monetary policies – that is, the combination of Quantitative Easing and their Zero Interest Rate Programs – might actually be killing demand in the economy.

Germany Loses Its Grip

By Delusional Economics, who is horrified at the state of economic commentary in Australia and is determined to cleanse the daily flow of vested interests propaganda to produce a balanced counterpoint. Cross posted from http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/01/greece-lines-up-portugal/“>MacroBusiness.

And so we roll on…

One of the things that amazes me about the European “crisis” is how symptoms of the underlying problems of the macro-economic system that is the Eurozone get confused with the actual problem. Let’s take the current situation in Greece for example:

Lessons for Europe’s Fiscal Union from US Federalism

Yves here. Even though both writers are affiliated with the Peterson Institute, this post talks about the need for countercyclical mechanisms in the eurozone, which makes it less austerian than the prevailing line of thinking in the officialdom. But some readers will not be so keen about the worship of Hamilton.

By C Randall Henning, Professor of International Economic Relations, American University and Martin Kessler, Research Analyst, Peterson Institute of International Economics. Cross posted from VoxEU

In the last few months, several Vox columns have drawn parallels between Europe today and an emerging – and even less stable – United States in the eighteenth century. This column stresses that Europe’s leaders in search of a fiscal union need not seek to replicate the US experience but they should at least learn from it.

David Stockman Disses Private Equity Business Acumen on Dylan Ratigan Show

By dint of news flow, we are having a private equity fest tonight. David Stockman, the former Reagan budget director, made a cogent case against the idea that being at the helm of a private equity firm has much to do with knowing how to run a business on Dylan Ratigan. I thought readers would enjoy this segment, not simply due to the content but also because Stockman is a compelling and blunt speaker.