While the preparation of economic data is always a fraught business, one hopes that errors are more or less symmetrical, particularly in data series that (as is the case for some important metrics in the US, like GDP), are released on an initial basis (almost without exception the only one Mr. Market notices) and tidied […]
Read more...This post first appeared on July 11, 2007 Readers of this blog know that I have been concerned about the state of the credit markets for some time. We’ve had (until the last month or so), rampant liquidity feeding asset bubbles in virtually every asset class except the dollar and the yen, tight risk spreads […]
Read more...This post appeared originally on July 27, 2007 Warning: this post is only for those with sound constitutions. Tim Lee, head of a financial economics consultancy, tells us in a Financial Times article what a carry trade unwind will look like (answer: very nasty) and what it would take to prevent it (the Japanese have […]
Read more...I recall a presentation on China at the Asia Society on the eve of the financial crisis, in which an economist commented on China’s extremely low interest rate on deposits (less than 1%) versus its markedly higher inflation rate, and commented that that was a recipe for hyperinflation. Well, that hasn’t been and is unlikely […]
Read more...I suppose I should be flattered that I keep being misbranded as an economist. You can view the segment here. Enjoy!
Read more...Even though St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard created a bit of frisson last week by discussing deflation, and Treasury yields are awfully reminiscent of Japan, investors and consumers have been so conditioned to be on the watch for inflation (particularly increases in food and fuel prices), that the suck of deflation on much bigger […]
Read more...Reader Scott provides yet another example of the disconnect between the cautiously optimistic stock market and those on the economic front lines. A Wells Fargo/Gallup survey of 604 small business owners conducted in early July showed a plunge in already negative readings to new lows. This gloomy outlook matters because small businesses were the biggest […]
Read more...According to Pimco’s global strategic adviser Richard Clarida and CEO Mohamed El-Erian, the new normal is not normal, and that has profound implications for investors. Some of the conclusions may sound a tad self-serving, in that Pimco is a bond shop, and fat tails implies more risk (or more accurately, higher odds of more extreme […]
Read more...Dean Baker has regularly made fun of the idea that the Chinese are concerned that they will show losses on their large dollar positions, mainly in invested mainly in US Treasuries. As serious traders will tell you, it’s actually easy to manipulate a market, but hard to make money doing it. As Baker put it: […]
Read more...In case you’ve been paying attention to market action rather than economic news, some key data releases for July have been less than cheery. For instance, consumer confidence has taken a nosedive, the US trade deficit unexpectedly worsened (meaning one of the few key sources of good news, the export sector, has hit an air […]
Read more...A school of political and economic argument goes something like this: every economic ill can be cured by tax cuts. It’s clearly rubbish when stated that way, yet the same logic is given far too much credence every time it is overused. A very good piece by William Gale at the Washington Post, “Five myths […]
Read more...This post first appeared on June 23, 2007 A neat little analysis by Ross Eisenbrey at the Economic Policy Institute may be difficult for union foes to explain away. It shows the proportion of workers covered by collective bargaining agreements in major European countries and the US and then shows productivity growth country by country […]
Read more...Cross-posted from The price of everything By Tim Price, Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management, a London-based fund manager “More than half of all workers have experienced a spell of unemployment, taken a cut in pay or hours or been forced to go part-time. The typical unemployed worker has been jobless for nearly six […]
Read more...Economists really do seem to struggle with history – and sometimes geography, too. Brad DeLong needs to remember that the Financial Times is published in London. As far as most combatants were concerned, the second world war broke out in September 1939. Niall Ferguson, FT, 20th July 2010. Goodish point. On the other hand, Ferguson […]
Read more...Cross posted from The Economic Populist. By Garrett Johnson Most people think that the Wall Street bailouts ended at least a year ago. They would be wrong. (Reuters) – Increased housing commitments swelled U.S. taxpayers’ total support for the financial system by $700 billion in the past year to around $3.7 trillion, a government watchdog […]
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