Category Archives: Economic fundamentals

Hawks at the Fed Warn Re Inflation, Bubbles

Although investors have been worried about the Fed’s exit strategy for some time, you wouldn’t see much evidence if you looked at the markets. While gold prices are an exception, the stock market appears to reflect optimism about recovery (although cynics would say it really is a function of liquidity, not fundamental views). Either premature […]

Guest Post: Krugman Says American Economy Will Not Recover for a Long Time, Johnson Says “Crisis is Just Beginning”

Last week, Pimco’s CEO said that he doesn’t think we’ll have a v-shaped recovery, and that economists, advisors and managers who have been counting on a v-shaped recovery are ignoring the economic fundamentals in our economy. Now, Paul Krugman is agreeing: Plunging prices of houses and CDOs … don’t produce any corresponding macroeconomic silver lining. […]

More On China’s Frothy-Looking Housing Market

We put up a post in late December which keyed off a discussion by Patrick Chovanec . Chovanec argued that real estate was increasingly serving as a vehicle for speculation, with many units kept vacant by investors: In China, however, “flipping” is not the problem. Some people may be engaged in short-term ”flipping,” but as […]

Let Them Eat Lobster!

This may seem sorta silly, but I come from a long line of Maine sea cooks and captains (each of whom got an extra share of the catch of the fishing ships they worked on, so one can romanticize it as being entrepreneurial, but if you have ever spent any time on the Maine coast, […]

52% of Small Businesses See Conditions Worsening in Next Six Months

The headline gives one of the results of a Rasmussen survey of small businesses commissioned by Discover (hat tip DoctoRx). Note only 22% expect improvement, with the rest either foreseeing no change or not volunteering a view. Small businesses are the engine of hiring, and as we noted earlier, they have cut back severely on […]

“The Once and Future Fed Policy Error?”

By Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed. Since then, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side. Monetary policy is center stage as the Fed pursues highly accommodative policies in order to generate a recovery and […]

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Apocalypse 2010

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is nothing if not decisive in his views, and has a undisguised fondness for the bearish perspective. But he was correct on the 2008 inflation/commodities headfake, saying repeatedly that deflationary forces would prevail when that was decidedly a minority view. He is also a Euro-skeptic, and I’m less comfortable with that position. The […]

“Reviving Confidence in the American Economy – China, Investment and the Deficit Hawks”

By Robert Johnson, former chief economist of the Senate Banking Committee and Senior Economist of the Senate Budget Committee who writes at New Deal 2.0. Since the early 1980s, rises in the living standard of middle class United States citizens have not kept up with the gains in labor productivity. Wages in the middle class […]

“2010: Foreseeable and Unforeseeable Risks ~ The Room For Policy Error is Enormous”

By John Bougearel, author of Riding the Storm Out and Director of Financial and Equity Research for Structural Logic Policymakers managed to extinguish a financial panic in 2008-09 by March 2009. This rescue operation allowed the broad U.S. stock market as measured by the SP500 to rally nearly 70%. Extinguishing the panic was to be […]

“What’s in Store for 2010”

By Bruce Krasting, a former foreign exchange and derivatives trader and hedge fund manager. Mohammad said, “One cannot foretell the future”. I think he was on to something. What looks predictable rarely happens. There are always surprises. I have been tripped up so many times. The following are not predictions of things that will happen. […]

Guest Post: Princeton Economist and Computer Scientists Show that Derivatives Are Inherently Vulnerable to Fraud

By Washington’s Blog. As I have previously noted, credit default swaps are destabilizing for the economy. See this. And the models used to evaluate financial instruments – such as the Gaussian copula formula for CDOs – are inherently flawed. Now, Princeton University economists and computer scientists have demonstrated that financial derivatives are also inherently vulnerable […]

Guest Post: Economists Are Trained to Ignore the Real World

By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. As I have repeatedly noted, mainstream economists and financial advisors have been using faulty and unrealistic models for years. See this, this, this, this, this and this. And I have pointed out numerous times that economists and advisors have a financial incentive to use faulty models. For example, I […]

More Evidence of Froth in China’s Housing Market

If the sky-high prices relative to income aren’t enough to convince you, consider this discussion from Patrick Chovanec (hat tip reader Michael) who contends that China’s latest effort to contain housing prices, the reinstitution of a property sales tax, is likely to be counterproductive: In China, however, “flipping” is not the problem. Some people may […]

“Greece – A Line in the Sand?”

By Bruce Krasting, a former foreign exchange and derivatives trader and hedge fund manager. On December 10th I raised the possibility of Greece breaking the connection with the Euro. On the likelihood of this black swan type of event happening I said, “This is not a high probability outcome.” A week later the possibility of […]

Guest Post: Larry Summers Is Like a Guy Who Yells That the Sun Really DOES Revolve Around the Earth and that the Current Orbit is Just a Temporary Aberration . . . and That If We Just Wait a Little While, “Everything Will Return to Normal”

Two leading White House economic advisors – Larry Summers and Christina Romer – are giving very different views on the economy. As Fox news summarizes: “Everybody agrees that the recession is over,” said Larry Summers, director of the National Economic Council. “Of course not,” countered Council of Economic Advisers Chairwoman Christina Romer in a separate […]