Category Archives: Economic fundamentals

58% of Real Income Growth Since 1976 Went to Top 1% (and Why That Matters)

If you have any doubts about how easy it is for someone who works hard in the US to get ahead, consider this factoid from Martin Wolf’s latest comment in the Financial Times, on Raghuram Rajan’s new book (see Satyajit Das’ review here: Thus, Prof Rajan notes that “of every dollar of real income growth […]

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Satyajit Das Examines Eurozone Stability Fund Three Card Monte

Satyajit Das is too shrewd to call the European Financial Stability Facility, informally described as a €440 billion sovereign bailout fund, a mere sleight of hand. But it’s hard not to draw that conclusion after reading his Financial Times comment today. Central banks and governments have developed an alarming fondness for the very sort of […]

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Moody’s Cuts Portugal’s Sovereign Debt Rating Two Notches to A1

The reporting so far is thin, just notices of the announcement at Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal that Moody’s cut the rating on Portugal’s sovereign debt from Aa2 to A1. The Bloomberg headline notes that Moody’s put the outlook as stable, while the Journal pointed out that the agency expected “Portuguese government’s financial strength […]

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Germany’s Eurobailout Template: A Stealth Takeover?

Der Spiegel (hat tip reader Richard Smith) presents a detailed sketch of German thinking, specifically that of chancellor Angela Merkel and finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, regarding how countries who fail an initial round of restructuring within the eurozone would be treated. This piece is very much worth reading, but the German proposal has all the […]

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Debunking Eurozone Optimism

I sometimes wonder whether Wolfgang Munchau of the Financial Times and Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph channel each other. Although they are both dubious of the eurozone’s ability to navigate its way out of its current mess, they also have an interesting habit of taking up similar issues on the same publication date. Today, both […]

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Small Businesses Face Record Spreads, SBA Lending Cliff Dives in June, Boding Ill for Employment

Distressing news continues to accumulate on the small business front. Smaller companies have been particularly hard hit by the downturn. Some of that goes with the terrain, since small businesses are more fragile than bigger ones. Nine of ten startups do not survive their first ten years. Even in typical recessions, banks cut off lending […]

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“The dollar question: Where are we?”

By Kati Suominen, Trans-Atlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Washington, cross posted from VoxEU The global crisis has led some to question the dollar’s place as the dominant currency. This column discusses three camps in the literature: those advocating a new synthetic global currency, those arguing that a new reserve currency will emerge, […]

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Is the Fed Happy with the Crappy Economy?

Is the economics version of defining deviancy downward mean that the new normal of high unemployment and inadequate job growth is seen as acceptable by policymakers (at least those not up for re-election this November)? It’s one thing to recognize that we are working through a painful hangover after a private sector borrowing binge that […]

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Soros on the Crisis and the Euro

The New York Review of Books has an article by George Soros with his take on the challenges facing the Eurozone. It includes a good, high level recitation of the structural deficiencies in the Eurozone (in particular, its lack of a treasury), the evolution of recent stresses, and suggested remedies. While the initial discussion covers […]

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Bank Extend and Pretend Common in Commercial Real Estate Loans

The Wall Street Journal today has solid piece of reporting on how banks are avoiding writing down commercial real estate loans. And the article even invoked “extend and pretend” near the top of the piece. The Journal also provides a critical factoid: regulators unwittingly enabled this practice. I had been wondering why we hadn’t seen […]

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“Will abandoning the dollar peg help China rebalance its economy?”

By Willem Thorbecke, Senior Research Fellow at the Asian Development Bank Institute and a Consulting Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry, originally posted at VoxEU Yves here. As we have pointed out in several posts, the idea that China’s announcement on its currency policy change is “abandoning its dollar peg” is […]

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Martin Wolf Continues Attack on Fiscal Austerity

Martin Wolf, the Financial Times’ esteemed economics editor, launches another salvo against misguided austerity measures today. It’s also noteworthy that he argues from a Modern Monetary Theory perspective. Wolf first stresses that yields on government bonds show that inflationsitas are all wet: I have a question: do we believe that markets are unable to price […]

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Our New York Times Op Ed on the Corporate Savings Glut

Rob Parenteau and I have an op-ed at the New York Times today. Rob’s last post here argued energetically that the now-established trend of the corporate sector to save, as opposed to invest in growth, in advanced economies, and even most emerging economies, was tantamount to capitalists abandoning their traditional role. It reminded me of […]

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Backfire at “America Speaks” Propaganda Campaign vs. Social Security and Medicare

For those who did not catch wind of it, the Peterson Foundation, which has long had Social Security and Medicare in its crosshairs, held a bizarre set of 19 faux town hall meetings over the previous weekend to scare participants into compliance and then collect the resulting distorted survey data, presumably to use in a […]

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Steve Keen’s Scary Minsky Model

I had the pleasure of finally meeting Steve Keen (he and his wife Melina are in New York) and it turns out he is adventuresome eater as well as thinker (he ordered maguro and natto even though I warned him, although I must say this restaurant’s version was actually gaijin friendly). Steve told me about […]

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