Category Archives: Economic fundamentals

Greenspan Calls Market Top

I’m not certain I would give Greenspan great market as a stock market seer, but he may have gotten better over time. He saw the stock market as frothy in 1996 (the time of his famed “irrational exuberance” remark, and was a skeptic through most of the equity bubble, then threw in the towel and […]

Guest Post: The Case for Inflation

By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. As I have recently pointed out, there are strong arguments for ongoing deflation. But even deflationists think that – after a period of deflation – we might eventually get inflation. For example, in October, I guessed 1 1/2 to 2 years of deflation, followed by inflation. Moreover, noted deflationist […]

Guest Post: Deflation?

By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. As Absolute Return Partners wrote in its July newsletter: The most important investment decision you will have to make this year and possibly for years to come is whether to structure your portfolio for deflation or inflation. So which is it, inflation or deflation? This is obviously a hot […]

Railroad Traffic Decline Accelerates (Withering Green Shoot Watch)

One indicator of commercial activity is shipments, such as train and truck traffic. Reader Marshall Auerback provided this sighting which shows that the decline in shipments is accelerating. Note that one of the general reasons for optimism is that many indicators are getting worse less quickly and some appear to be stabilizing. Now this is […]

Guest Post: If Credit is Not Created Out of Excess Reserves, What Does That Mean?

By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. We’ve all been taught that banks first build up deposits, and then extend credit and loan out their excess reserves. But critics of the current banking system claim that this is not true, and that the order is actually reversed. Sounds crazy, right? Certainly. But as PhD economist Steve […]

Steve Keen: we need a “debt jubilee”

Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns Last week, I highlighted some of the ideas of Australian economist Steve Keen in my post, “Politics and reform: Say I’m a politician….” Keen is of the Minsky camp and he believes that an unsustainable debt bubble has build up in the industrialized world which can only be […]

Bank of America: 40% of Junk Bonds to Default by 2013

During the tense months of the crisis, every so often there would be a story on the looming threat of mounting corporate debt defaults. With more than half the corporate bonds rated junk, thanks to highly-levered takeovers, it wasn’t hard to imagine that a protracted economic bad spell could lead to a lot of defaults. […]

Guest Post: Steve Keen Out-Thinks Larry Summers

By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. Inside the beltway and among mainstream economists, Larry Summers has the reputation of being a genius. But Australian PhD economist Steve Keen points out a huge gap in the thinking of Summers – and all neoclassical economists. Specifically, in an essay written today, Keen explains the weakness in the […]

The mother of all inventory corrections is not the same as re-stocking

Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns Back in April I told you I anticipated an uptick in GDP in part because of changes in inventories – massive change in the inventories. At the time, I thought I was going out on a limb by suggesting we could see positive GDP numbers in Q3 and […]

Quelle Surprise! Regulators Starting to Worry Re Bank Commercial Real Estate Exposures

Let’s see, Leon Black of Apollo Management, which is a very savvy real estate player, warned of a coming “black hole” in commercial real estate six months ago. US bank regulators seem to be taking warnings of his sort seriously only now. The Fed is poking its nose into the portfolios of some banks, oddly […]

Guest Post: “Assessing the Recent Performance of the Fed”

By Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed. Since them, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side. Evaluating the recent performance of the Fed is not a straight forward exercise. The turmoil in the financial system, […]

Ghost Fleet of the Recession = Biggest Maritime Gathering Ever

This post has been deleted temporarily because it appears to be corrupting the RSS feed. It will be restored once we have isolated the problem.

Another Withering Green Shoot: London Retail Sales Fall Sharply

The UK business press had been even more optimistic about recovery that its US counterpart, so the less than cheery news about retail sales in London is a blow to the view that the worst was indeed past. One of the reasons shopping had held up so well to date was the English capital’s role […]

Is economic boom around the corner?

Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. Back in February, I asked you if we were experiencing a recession or depression. A plurality said it was a depression with a small ’d.’ I agreed and went on to explain why. Since then, things have changed and we seem to be on the verge of what […]