Category Archives: Federal Reserve

Longer-Term Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates Explode, Yield Curve Un-Inverts Further as Bond Market Gets Spooked

Stock jockeys love Trump and bond vigilantes do not. What do their diverging views say about the prospects for the US economy?

What If There’s No Landing at All, But Flight at Higher Speed and Altitude than Normal, with Higher and Rising Inflation?

Recent economic data suggest inflation may gain steam again. What would the Fed do?

Private Equity Pummeled by Higher Interest Rates as Portfolio Companies and Credit Funds Struggle; Use of PIK Loans Now Recalls Late 1980s LBO Crisis

More and more private equity and private credit deals are looking over-extended. How bad might things get?

OK, Forget it, False Alarm, Labor Market Is Fine, Bad Stuff Last Month Was Revised Away, Wages Jumped. No More Rate Cuts Needed?

New and revised labor market data suddenly says the US economy is just fine. Mr. Market’s continued rate cuts look off the table for now.

The Fed and the “Soft Landing” – Policy or Luck?

The Fed has little to do with the fall in inflation. Limited labor bargaining power and easing supply chain problems were more important.

Who Holds All These US Treasuries? Update on the Investors in the Ballooning US National Debt in Q2

As the Fed unloads Treasuries, others are purchasing them…including foreign central banks.

Days After Rate Cut, S&P’s Flash PMI Sees Rising Inflation and Exhorts the Fed to “Move Cautiously” with “Further Rate Cuts”

S&P: “The “reacceleration of inflation” suggests “the Fed cannot totally shift its focus away from its inflation target.”

The Fed’s Reactive-Looking Half-Point Rate Cut

The Fed’s half point rate reduction was unseemly large. What gives?

The Myth That the US is Rapidly Approaching Bankruptcy

Michael Hudson and Richard Wolff take apart widespread myths about Federal spending and debts.

Bloodletting in Semiconductor Stocks Kicks Off September: Nvidia -11.7% Regular & Late Trading, Stock Market Cap Drops by Half a Tesla

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.3% yesterday. If the tech stock index declines another 6.7%, it’ll be back to November 2021.

The Rate Cuts Powell Dangled in Front of Markets May Slam into Inflationary Fiscal & Economic Policies of Whoever Is in the White House Next Year

Are both parties set to continue stimulative fiscal policy, leaving Powell or a successor to reapply the monetary policy brake?

The Irrationality of Markets

More evidence that the current level of advanced economy secondary market trading is bad for economic health.

Despite the Recession-Emergency-Rate-Cut Buffoonery, the Services Sector Expands Strongly on Growth in New Orders & Employment. Inflation Pressures Still On

Services are two-thirds of the economy; as long as they’re firm, the economy will plug along just fine, even as manufacturing stalled

Repaying Bank Loans Destroys Money

Richard Murphy discusses a key, and not well understood, implication of repaying bank loans.

Economy Re-Accelerates in Q2. Our Drunken Sailors Splurge on Durable Goods, Investment Jumps, Federal Gov Undoes Blip

The US economy looks a bit perky. Party on! But will the Fed continue to apply the interest rate brakes?