Category Archives: Federal Reserve

Focus on Market Rout from Overvalued Levels Diverting Attention from Real Economy DOGE, Particularly Social Security and Depth of Tariff Damage

The focus on the market rout pervesely distracts attention from Trump’s massive and probably durable real economy destruction.

Fed Not Buying Trump Administration Economic Snake Oil but Stands Largely Pat While Depicting Higher Inflation, Lower Growth Prospects

The Fed has noticed that Trump’s policies are chilling growth while stoking inflation, but is not yet ready to react strongly.

“Might the US Be About to Fall Off an Economic Cliff?”

The respected Atlanta Fed NowCast is scary bad, as in economic shoes about to drop in a big way bad.

DOGE Taketh Away From the Many as Trump Pays Off Crypto Bros With New “Strategic” Fund, Above All, Crypto Czar David Sacks

We warned that crypto was closely aligned with criminal activity. The open grift of the new “strategic” Trump fund proves that case.

Charles Kindleberger, the Dollar System, and Financial Crises

On Perry Mehrling’s Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System, including how some of his key ideas have been borne out.

Trump’s Shock Doctrine: Uncertainty and the Repudiation of Contracts

How Trump’s economic revolution and the uncertainty it is creating are already wreaking havoc.

Mr. Treasury Market Tells Fed It Is Even More Worried About Inflation

The Fed vigorously backpedaled on further cuts, pivoting to wait-and-see, due to long-term rates signaling inflation concerns.

James Galbraith: How the Fed Became Less Powerful Despite Weakened Congressional Oversight

Fifty years ago the actions of the Fed mattered. Today, as far the aggregate measures of America’s domestic economy go, they do not.

Inflation Re-Accelerates Despite Plunging Gasoline Prices as “Core Services” PCE Price Index Hits 7-Month High

Core services inflation is the biggie and going the wrong way. The Fed is already talking down the pace of rate cuts.

Longer-Term Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates Explode, Yield Curve Un-Inverts Further as Bond Market Gets Spooked

Stock jockeys love Trump and bond vigilantes do not. What do their diverging views say about the prospects for the US economy?

What If There’s No Landing at All, But Flight at Higher Speed and Altitude than Normal, with Higher and Rising Inflation?

Recent economic data suggest inflation may gain steam again. What would the Fed do?

Private Equity Pummeled by Higher Interest Rates as Portfolio Companies and Credit Funds Struggle; Use of PIK Loans Now Recalls Late 1980s LBO Crisis

More and more private equity and private credit deals are looking over-extended. How bad might things get?

OK, Forget it, False Alarm, Labor Market Is Fine, Bad Stuff Last Month Was Revised Away, Wages Jumped. No More Rate Cuts Needed?

New and revised labor market data suddenly says the US economy is just fine. Mr. Market’s continued rate cuts look off the table for now.

The Fed and the “Soft Landing” – Policy or Luck?

The Fed has little to do with the fall in inflation. Limited labor bargaining power and easing supply chain problems were more important.

Who Holds All These US Treasuries? Update on the Investors in the Ballooning US National Debt in Q2

As the Fed unloads Treasuries, others are purchasing them…including foreign central banks.