Category Archives: Federal Reserve

Wolf Richter: What Happens Next, Now That The 10-year Treasury Yield Hit The Psycho-Sound Barrier Of 3%

Yves here. As Wolf describes, in our brave new work of super-low interest rates, the 10 year Treasury breaching 3% was regarded with fear and loathing by the officialdom. Now with the Fed’s reassurances that the Fed funds rate will remain at just about zero for the foreseeable future, the stock market has popped the Champagne. But will the impact of the withdrawal of support for bond prices impact stocks sooner than the current rally would have you believe?

Goodbye Price Stability, Hello Exchange Rate Volatility

Yves here. This post makes a deceptively simple but important observation. Despite claims otherwise, central banks are giving top priority to interest rate stability, over that of other mandates they have been given explicitly, such as the health of the financial system, price stability, and full employment. This is further confirmation of the idea that central banks are desperate to keep asset prices aloft.

The Fed’s Taper and Market Fealty

The Fed’s announcing the taper was supposed to be an earth-shaking event. But that actually sorta happened last summer when Bernanke first used the “t” word and interest and mortgage rates made an impressive upward march in a short period of time.

From my considerable remove, what was noteworthy about the Fed’s announcement yesterday is how terrified it seems to be of creating an upset.

Tapering Talk: The Impact of Expectations of Reduced Federal Reserve Security Purchases on Emerging Markets

Yves here. This post is important because even though the Fed is focused on the impact of QE (and hence the taper) on the domestic economy, it’s been getting enough of a hard time from central bankers of leading emerging markets economies that it least has to feign concern credibly.

The Eichengreen/Gupta paper summarized in this post concludes that, quelle surprise, the countries most vulnerable to changes in Fed policy (which really means hot money in and outflows) are those with the biggest financial markets relative to GDP. Curiously, Eichengreen and Gupta fail to note that this means the orthodox advice to developing economies, that financial “deepening” is a Good Thing and therefore should be supported by government policy, in fact reduces financial stability and makes them even more vulnerable to the moods of fickle foreign investors.

Bubble-logic and the Fed’s “To Taper or Not to Taper”

One of the amusing things right now is that there isn’t much debate in equity-land as to whether to be long or not.

The US Economy Can’t Take QE

Yves here. This post gives a good recap of where QE is and isn’t having an impact on the economy, and the “isn’t”s clearly prevail.

Wolf Richter: Strung-Out Consumers, Desperate Retailers, Crummy Sales

During this festive time of the year, the whole world is intensely focused on American consumers, watching their every move under a digital microscope to parse if the universe is going to live or die. Retailers and the media joined forces to create hoopla and excitement and frenzy and the perception of once-in-a-lifetime deals. Stores opened on Thanksgiving, stayed open late at night, and opened early in the morning. And consumers dove right into this extravaganza.

Servaas Storm: Some Remarks on “Larry Summers, Secular Stagnation and the Crisis of the New Consensus Model”

It is truly ironic to see Lawrence Summers and Paul Krugman promote sustaining asset price inflation as the only viable option left to get away from secular stagnation.

Governments Will Struggle to Control Bitcoin

Yves here. I was extremely puzzled to see various US regulators make cautiously positive remarks about Bitcoin in Congressional hearings. But I now have a guess as to what happened.

Speculation About Whether the Fed Manipulates the Stock Market Becoming More Mainstream

Even during the pre-Lehman days of the financial crisis (yes, Virginia, there were three acute episodes before the Big One), blogs and professional investors in my various e-mail conversations would discuss the idea that the Fed had a “plunge protection team” which would intervene to stem market routs.

Why Should Banks be the Only Ones with Accounts at the Fed?

Should everyone with a Social Security number have an account at the Fed?

Ilargi: QE, The People And The Damage Done

A report issued by McKinsey Global Institute last week on the real world impact of QE warrants more scrutiny than it has gotten so far.

Krugman, Following Summers, Endorses Asset Bubbles

We have now passed the event horizon into a world run by Dr. Pangloss. In a Sunday afternoon post, Paul Krugman enthusiastically endorses an IMF presentation by Larry Summers which depicts asset bubbles as necessary and desirable. And that means they both agree they should not only continue, they should be encouraged.

Ilargi: Deflation, A Stock Market Crash And Then Christmas

Yves here. I know I should write about Janet Yellen’s confirmation hearing, but I can’t stand to do it. Plus I am confident you’ll enjoy this piece more.

Richard Alford: On Grading the Bernanke Fed

We are certain to hear more and more appraisals of Bernake’s tenure as Fed chairman as he approaches the end of his term. But will they use good benchmarks? We suggest measuring his performance against his claims for the Fed’s objectives and what he said the central bank could accomplish. Not surprisingly, we find that he came up short.