Category Archives: Globalization

Jurgen Stark = Credit Anstalt 2.0 (and Euromarkets Reacting Accordingly)

It is remotely possible that the EU officialdom will temporarily reverse the train wreck that started last Friday with the resignation of Jurgen Stark from the ECB. That was seen as a sign that Germany has adopted bailout fatigue as official policy. That in turn would mean that Greece will not get any more money lifelines (which as commentators predicted some time ago, means a likely banking crisis, which was the reason for them not to exit the Eurozone).

Mr. Market is giving a big vote of no confidence in European leadership, although the FTSE has reversed some of its early-session losses.

Dimon Says US Banks Should Dictate to Regulators

Now that Steve Jobs has retired from Apple, Jamie Dimon seems determined to assume his role as the CEO with the most effective reality distortion sphere. You can infer that from the magnitude of the whoppers he is telling and the size of the audience he is trying to bamboozle.

But while Jobs’ Svengali tendencies have gotten more than occasional mention, they weren’t a major failing. Jobs not only saved Apple, but he spearheaded the development of important new product categories. By contrast, Dimon has long been a bully, a smart and capable bully, but a bully nevertheless (I have reports going back to his first year at Harvard Business School, and it takes some doing to be memorably obnoxious by dint of the competition in that category).

Now on the surface, Dimon’s latest brazen statement isn’t quite as gross as my headline suggests. He is merely saying that US banks should not be subject to the new incoming international bank rules, known as Basel III. That might seem to be a narrower statement, but as we show, when you parse his logic, it amounts to banking uber alles.

Chinese manufacturing takes a hit from abroad

The just released official manufacturing purchasing mangers index (PMI) for China shows a small rebound in August. The headline PMI rose from 50.7 in July to 50.9 in August, just slightly below market expectation of 51.1.

The Sucking Sound of Liquidity Draining From the Eurobank Market

As much as the dot com era conditioned US individual investors to focus on stock market movements, credit markets are where the real action lies. Deterioration in the bond markets almost without exception precedes stock market declines (although debt instruments can also send out false positives). In the stone ages of my youth, the rule of thumb was a four-month lag. In 2007, that guide was not at all bad. The bond market turn began in June 2007 (yours truly took note of it then, see here for the critical development, but was not convinced it was the Big One until corroborating data came in in July). The stock market obligingly peaked in October 2007.

Now given the extraordinary degree of government interventions, turns are not as obvious, market upheavals have repeatedly been beaten back, and relationships between stock and bond market price movements are likely to be less reliable than in the past. But one thing that is a clear danger signal is liquidity leaving the banking system. It’s like the preternatural calm when the water leaves the beach, revealing much more shore than usual, before the tsunami rolls in.

Satyajit Das: The Real Debt Crisis is in Europe- Part 2 – “Europe’s Long, Long Goodbye”

By Satyajit Das, the author of Extreme Money: The Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk (published in August/ September 2011)

In the Long Term We’re All Dead

The European Union’s attempts to resolve the continent’s sovereign debt problems do not deal with issues of growth, intra-European financial imbalances and competitiveness. The only “initiative” was the vague plan for a massive public investment program, although no details of how it is to be financed were provided.

The call for greater public investment was accompanied by a familiar but contradictory insistence that all Euro-zone states adhere to agreed fiscal targets. Euro-zone countries except Greece, Ireland and Portugal must bring their budget deficit down to less than 3% of GDP by 2013. The need for many European countries to improve public finances is clear. But how greater belt-tightening and austerity would restore growth is not.

Satyajit Das: The Real Debt Crisis is in Europe – Part 1 – “Solvency But Not In Our Time”

By Satyajit Das, the author of Extreme Money: The Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk (published in August/ September 2011)

Despite the media hyperventilation and pundit hyperbole about the downgrade of US’s credit rating, the real issue remains Europe.

There is no imminent danger that the US cannot finance its requirements. The US’s cost of debt will not increase significantly as a result of the marginal downgrade, by one of the three major rating agencies. Despite the shrill rhetoric, the Chinese and other foreign investors will continue to buy US dollars and government bonds to protect their existing

For many European countries, the inability to access markets is a clear and present danger, which threatens financial markets and the global economy.

New Zealand Company Registry Whack-a-Mole!

More old and new delights from the little shop of horrors that is the New Zealand Company Registry

“August 2011: The euro crisis reaches the core”

Yves here. This article gives one of the best high level summaries of the problems besetting the Eurozone I have seen. I’m not as keen about his remedy, which is not to say that it isn’t clever and wouldn’t in theory work. But from everything I can tell, the ECB is simply not prepared to expand its balance sheet anywhere near as much as would be needed.

By Daniel Gros, Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels. Cross posted from VoxEU

Investors are anticipating the unravelling of the 21 July 2011 “solution” and a breakdown of the interbank-market that would throw the economy into an “immediate recession” like the one experienced after the Lehman bankruptcy. This column argues that this will happen without quick and bold action. The EFSF can’t work as designed but if it were registered as a bank – which would give it access to unlimited ECB re-financing – governments could stop the generalised breakdown of confidence while leaving the management of public debt in the hand of the finance ministers.

Dalia Marin on Outsourcing, Income Inequality, CEO Pay

Dalia Marin, who Chair in International Economics at the University of Munich, discusses “new new trade theory” and how it looks at phenomena that don’t fit into older models of trade, particularly outsourcing and offshoring. Her work is empirical and here she discusses wage differentials and the various rationales for why CEO pay has exploded in the US. I think readers will enjoy this interview.

Philip Pilkington: European Citizens are Not Being Taxed to Fund the Bailouts

By Philip Pilkington, a journalist and writer based in Dublin, Ireland

We hear it time and time again: EU taxpayers are paying for the bailouts in the European periphery. The problem with this statement? As popular as it may be in the media right now, it’s not quite true – at least, it’s not true if you take a proper macroeconomic perspective on the crisis rather than looking at it through the crass lens of nationalism.

ECB Considers Massive Purchases of Italian and Spanish Bonds (Update: Eurobazooka Armed)

Even thought the US media has been fixated on the downgrade of Treasuries to AA+ by Standard and Poor’s, the real risk to the markets is continuing decay in Eurozone sovereign debt. The BBC’s Robert Peston said today that the failure of the ECB to buy Italian bonds would be a Lehman moment. As our Ed Harrison stresses, while some countries like Greece have a solvency crisis and need to have their obligations restructures (as in written down), the stress on Spanish and Italian bonds looks like a classic liquidity crisis. And the concern has spread to the core, as French sovereign debt (remember, rated AAA) was trading at a 90 basis point premium to German bunds. As Ed noted:

Bill Black: U.S. Subsidies to Systemically Dangerous Institutions Violate WTO Principles

By Bill Black, an Associate Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. He is a white-collar criminologist, a former senior financial regulator, and the author of The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One. Cross posted from New Economic Perspectives

Greetings from Quito, Ecuador!

Introduction: The SDIs Pose Systemic Risks

This article makes the policy case that U.S. subsidies to its systemically dangerous institutions (SDIs) violate World Trade Organization (WTO) principles. The WTO describes its central mission as creating “a system of rules dedicated to open, fair and undistorted competition.” There is a broad consensus among economists that the systemically dangerous institutions (SDIs) receive large governmental subsidies that make “open, fair, and undistorted competition” impossible. To date, WTO is infamous for its hostility to efforts by nation states to regulate banks effectively. At best, the result is a classic example of the catastrophic damage cause by the “intended consequences” of the SDIs’ unholy war against regulation.

“Europe plans its next crisis”

By Delusional Economics, who is unhappy with the current dumbed-down vested interest economic reporting. Cross posted from MacroBusiness

With the economic world firmly focussed on the US debt debacle this week it is likely that Europe will slip off the radar a little. I suspect, as many people do, that for the US there will be an eleventh hour resolution followed by a short lived bounce in the world markets. Once that bounce heads back to earth again it is likely that the world’s eyes will turn back to Europe. There is much to see.

Victor Shih on the Risk of Capital Fleeing China

We’ve written about Victor Shih’s work on Chinese banks and wealthy households. He argues that the Chinese financial system and economy are at risk if enough capital moves overseas. While the release of this video is coming at a juncture when the US and Europe seem to be engaged in a beauty contest between Cinderella’s stepsisters, Chinese business have been making aggressive investments in other economies as well, such as agricultural land in Africa, so it’s worth remembering that advanced economies are far from the only targets for offshore funds.

This video gives a short, high level overview of his provocative thesis. Enjoy!