Go out to the gym and big news happens. But hopefully this announcement will stop or at least slow the run on Bear. JP Morgan’s price of $2 a share represents a price of $270 million, or 1/4 the estimated value of Bear’s headquarters building. The discount reflects JPM’s leverage but also the perception that […]
Read more...The Wall Street Journal reports that JP Morgan is trying to solidify a deal for Bear before the Asian markets open: Terms of the deal were still being hammered out Sunday afternoon. Reflecting the dire situation at Bear, the company is likely to fetch considerably less on a per-share basis than its stock price of […]
Read more...Given the weekend, there was not much in the way of news on the Bear Stearns front, save further clarification of how perilous its state is. From CNBC: Department heads at Bear Stearns met with officials at J.C. Flowers and JPMorgan Chase Saturday afternoon to give an overview of their business divisions, including headcount and […]
Read more...This article by Jeff Randall in the Telegraph does a nice job of looking at the causes of our credit mess and articulating implications. And he quotes my hero Paul Volcker (do you know that he stayed at the Fed fixing the economy even though his wife was very sick and he was having trouble […]
Read more...Krishna Guha in the Financial Times argues that US banks need new equity ASAP to prevent the operation of a “financial accelerator,” which is basically, just as leverage feeds on itself, so to does deleveraging: falls in prices lead to margin calls, which lead to forced selling, which lead to more margin calls. We now […]
Read more...I rarely feature Wall Street Journal articles in long form because I figure most readers will find them on their own. But the Journal’s Saturday edition isn’t as widely read, and this is an exceptionally good piece, particularly given that the Journal is not the best source on credit market reporting. The ongoing crisis seems […]
Read more...As I am sure you all know by now, Bear Stearns started coming spectacularly unglued last night, and called JP Morgan, who in turn tapped the Fed, who sent examiners who stayed at the firm all night. In the morning, a plan was announced by which the central bank would assume the risk of lending […]
Read more...The news that Bear had to run to the Fed for help with its rapidly deteriorating cash position, and JP Morgan has been muscled into assisting in the rescue is a sign that Bear was deemed too big to fail. The Fed is lending against Bear’s collateral (I haven’t seen an estimate as to how […]
Read more...The market rallied on the news that S&P reported that the end was in sight for subprime writedowns, with the firm placing the total damage at $285 billion, with $150 billion realized so far. The need to believe is stronger than I realized. “End is sight” is not the same as “end is nigh” but […]
Read more...Oooh, the week has barely started and we’ve already had an overdose of adrenaline-generating news. Thornburg Mortgage and Carlyle Capital, both twisting in the wind, battered by margin calls, look unlikely to escape bankruptcy (Thornburg has already defaulted on financing agreements; Carlyle is seeking a standstill). Freddie and Fannie took a further beating thanks to […]
Read more...Not only does leverage cut both ways, amplifying returns and losses, but bankers have a nasty habit of imposing tougher borrowing terms at the worst possible time. The hedge fund industry is learning this lesson the hard way, as cash strapped and newly risk averse prime brokers are raising margin requirements across the board, even […]
Read more...Gillian Tett in the Financial Times points out a nasty conundrum. For the credit markets to get back to some semblance of normalcy, prices of instruments have to fall their clearing price. Only a very few will buy before a bottom has clearly been reached. But reaching liquidation prices will entice the capital that has […]
Read more...No, this isn’t a confessional by Jerome Kerviel. Instead, it’s a few excerpts of a very good paper by the Senior Supervisors Group (regulators from France, Germany, Switzerland, Britain and the United States) who went poking around 11 major financial institutions to find out how they botched their risk management so badly last year. The […]
Read more...The Financial Times reports that the investment banking industry is considering implementing guidelines regarding compensation to ward off further criticism. However, in reality, legislators and regulators are highly unlikely to impose any kind of standards. The worst the industry faces is being hauled before Congress and called bad names for ten minutes. The absence of […]
Read more...John Dizard in “Disquiet on the western front of the credit world,” discusses the politics of the credit crisis, depicting two opposed absolutist camps: those who’d have everyone take their lumps now, no matter how bad they turn out to be, versus those who think preventing a nasty recession is all-important, even if it means […]
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