Category Archives: Investment outlook

Trump Support Negative Even Among White Working Class; Approval of His Agenda at Only 27%

Trump’s approval ratings continue to slide, even before polls register the effect of the ICE executions. But does that mater to him any more?

Is Your Pension Safe?

An important reminder about how pensions work and the risks of various types.

The US Dollar: Not a Traditional Safe Haven

Why the dollar is more of a safe haven than it might seem, despite Trump’s persistent undermining.

Creative Energy Diplomacy Might Avert Another American Attack On Iran

Trump needs a face-saving way to de-escalate with Iran. Is an energy deal possibe?

Polymarket Manipulation and Other Guessing Games

How Polymarket traders using tools like “insider finder” to identify positions that look based on special intel can be fleeced.

Justice Department Subpoenas the Fed, Threatens Powell with Criminal Indictment. Powell Comes out Swinging. Stock Futures Tank

Trump pursues another own goal by escalating with Fed chair Powell over his refusal to lower interest rates by launching a criminal probe.

AI and Systemic Risk

The popular press is whistling past the graveyard of AI systemic risk even as heavyweight experts warn more needs to be done.

Satyajit Das: The Shadow of Financial Instability

Shadow banks, rebranded as anodyne “non-bank financial institutions” are larger than ever and pose a threat in a new financial crisis

Has Public Debt Become Unmanageable?

Why alarmism about public debt is fundamentally misguided.

Satyajit Das: AI – Artificial Intelligence or Absolute Insanity?

AI is following the same trajectory as the dot-com bubble.

The U.S. Is Betting the Economy on ‘Scaling’ AI: Where Is the Intelligence When One Needs It?

A detailed discussion of how AI data-center investment boom is soking a societally and financially costly bubble

Steve Keen Warns Crash of 2026 Will Be Worse Than 2008

Steve Keen was one of the few economists to predict the 2008 crisis. His call for a 2026 crash looks all too credible.

President Putin and Prime Minister Modi Share a Future Strategy That’s No Joke for President Trump

Even with the Putin-Modi lovefest and shared strategic aims, meeting their trade targets will be a heavy lift.

Bitcoin, Crypto Plunge Accelerates as Leveraged Players (“Treasuries”) Like Strategy Dump Holdings

A big leverage unwind in Bitcoin is accelerating, dragging down other crypto. How much further will the fall go before hitting bottom?

The Cloud’s Not Fluffy, It’s a Hot, Loud, Energy-Voracious Factory

A more detailed look at why to resist massive pressures for data center buildout and question claims of inevitability.