Category Archives: Investment outlook

International Trade Suppression and the Demand for US Treasuries

On how lower foreign government appetite for Treasuries might affect the status of the dollar as reserve currency.

Longer-Dated Treasuries Sell Off Sharply, Increasing Interest Rates: The Exact Opposite of What Trump Says He Wants

Mr. Market, in the form of longer-dated Treasury yields, is not on board with the Trump tariff scheme.

Focus on Market Rout from Overvalued Levels Diverting Attention from Real Economy DOGE, Particularly Social Security and Depth of Tariff Damage

The focus on the market rout pervesely distracts attention from Trump’s massive and probably durable real economy destruction.

Trump Deploys His Tariff Wrecking Ball; How Much Will the US Suffer Along with Most of the Rest of the World?

The latest Trump tariffs kick up the destructiveness of his administration up to a whole new level.

Satyajit Das: DOGE – The Accelerant in American Decline

Republicans find DOGE’s actions are not universally popular. US courts have begun disallowing cancellation of contracts and terminations

Fed Not Buying Trump Administration Economic Snake Oil but Stands Largely Pat While Depicting Higher Inflation, Lower Growth Prospects

The Fed has noticed that Trump’s policies are chilling growth while stoking inflation, but is not yet ready to react strongly.

As US Markets Look a Bit Wobbly, the Press Looks for the Next Crisis in the Rear View Mirror

The Wall Street Journal worried about the giddy mood at the annual structured industry conference. But is where to look for the next crisis?

Charlie Krauss: What the Enron Egg Says About AI’s Nuclear Courtship

How nuclear small modular reactors (SMR) hype, with a boost from AI, has reached absurd, as in satire-suitable, levels.

Hubert Horan: Can Uber Ever Deliver? Part Thirty-Five: What Drove Uber’s Recent $8 Billion P&L Improvement?

How did Uber achieved a $8 billion P&L improvement after losing $33 billion in its first 13 years? Misleading accounting plays a big role.

After We Amplified Warnings of Wildly Overvalued Unicorns, They Crash and Burn

How Climate Denial is Fueling a U.S. Homeowners Insurance Crisis and Risking a 2008-Style Financial Meltdown

A climate-change-driven insurance and eventual mortgage/housing price crisis is getting momentum. And unlike 2008, price recovery is unlikely

Mr. Treasury Market Tells Fed It Is Even More Worried About Inflation

The Fed vigorously backpedaled on further cuts, pivoting to wait-and-see, due to long-term rates signaling inflation concerns.

The Economic Benefit of Conflict: A Thriving Armaments Sector

Quelle surprise! Data supports the notion that defense contractors do well in times of conflict.

How Climate Change and Widespread Unaffordable Home Insurance Will Wreck Property Values

The death spiral of home insurance in climate afflicted areas has begun. The will and means to tackle underlying issues are sorely wanting

Wolf Richter: DOGE Seeks to Shed Vast Amounts of Government Office Space. Here’s How Much the Government Leases, and Where, and What Leases it Can Shed During Trump’s Term

For CRE, the motto in 2024 was “Survive till 2025” via extend-and-pretend. Now it’s 2025, and here comes the government’s office space.