Category Archives: Investment outlook

The Economic Benefit of Conflict: A Thriving Armaments Sector

Quelle surprise! Data supports the notion that defense contractors do well in times of conflict.

How Climate Change and Widespread Unaffordable Home Insurance Will Wreck Property Values

The death spiral of home insurance in climate afflicted areas has begun. The will and means to tackle underlying issues are sorely wanting

Wolf Richter: DOGE Seeks to Shed Vast Amounts of Government Office Space. Here’s How Much the Government Leases, and Where, and What Leases it Can Shed During Trump’s Term

For CRE, the motto in 2024 was “Survive till 2025” via extend-and-pretend. Now it’s 2025, and here comes the government’s office space.

What Should Tesla’s Stock Be Worth? Automaker, Stagnating Vehicle Sales like GM & Ford, Getting Overtaken by Competitors, Losing Share in the Booming EV Market?

Tesla is now just ar mid-size automaker amid EV competition that is eating its lunch. What might realistic valuations mean for Musk’s clout?

“The Next Crash Could Be Much Bigger Than the Last Two”

Rentierism in housing in the UK has reached what looks like nose-bleed, self-correcting, and thus potentially crash-inducing levels.

Wall Street Journal Tries “Recovery Finally Underway” Office Space Patter as Securitized Office Mortgage Delinquencies Hit a New Post-Crisis High of 10.4%

The Journal gets egg on its face for trying to call a bottom in the office space market even as delinquencies were accelerating

Longer-Term Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates Explode, Yield Curve Un-Inverts Further as Bond Market Gets Spooked

Stock jockeys love Trump and bond vigilantes do not. What do their diverging views say about the prospects for the US economy?

Fall Fashion’s Economic Forecast

A sampling of fall/winter women’s frocks does not make for an upbeat economic forecast.

Days After Rate Cut, S&P’s Flash PMI Sees Rising Inflation and Exhorts the Fed to “Move Cautiously” with “Further Rate Cuts”

S&P: “The “reacceleration of inflation” suggests “the Fed cannot totally shift its focus away from its inflation target.”

The Fed’s Reactive-Looking Half-Point Rate Cut

The Fed’s half point rate reduction was unseemly large. What gives?

Bloodletting in Semiconductor Stocks Kicks Off September: Nvidia -11.7% Regular & Late Trading, Stock Market Cap Drops by Half a Tesla

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.3% yesterday. If the tech stock index declines another 6.7%, it’ll be back to November 2021.

The Rate Cuts Powell Dangled in Front of Markets May Slam into Inflationary Fiscal & Economic Policies of Whoever Is in the White House Next Year

Are both parties set to continue stimulative fiscal policy, leaving Powell or a successor to reapply the monetary policy brake?

The Death of the Engineer CEO: Evidence that Short-Termism and Financialization Had Become Ascendant

A look at how some turning points in the history of Corporate America, such as CEO changes of guard, explain how America hollowed itself out.