Category Archives: Investment outlook

Charlie Krauss: What the Enron Egg Says About AI’s Nuclear Courtship

How nuclear small modular reactors (SMR) hype, with a boost from AI, has reached absurd, as in satire-suitable, levels.

Hubert Horan: Can Uber Ever Deliver? Part Thirty-Five: What Drove Uber’s Recent $8 Billion P&L Improvement?

How did Uber achieved a $8 billion P&L improvement after losing $33 billion in its first 13 years? Misleading accounting plays a big role.

After We Amplified Warnings of Wildly Overvalued Unicorns, They Crash and Burn

How Climate Denial is Fueling a U.S. Homeowners Insurance Crisis and Risking a 2008-Style Financial Meltdown

A climate-change-driven insurance and eventual mortgage/housing price crisis is getting momentum. And unlike 2008, price recovery is unlikely

Mr. Treasury Market Tells Fed It Is Even More Worried About Inflation

The Fed vigorously backpedaled on further cuts, pivoting to wait-and-see, due to long-term rates signaling inflation concerns.

The Economic Benefit of Conflict: A Thriving Armaments Sector

Quelle surprise! Data supports the notion that defense contractors do well in times of conflict.

How Climate Change and Widespread Unaffordable Home Insurance Will Wreck Property Values

The death spiral of home insurance in climate afflicted areas has begun. The will and means to tackle underlying issues are sorely wanting

Wolf Richter: DOGE Seeks to Shed Vast Amounts of Government Office Space. Here’s How Much the Government Leases, and Where, and What Leases it Can Shed During Trump’s Term

For CRE, the motto in 2024 was “Survive till 2025” via extend-and-pretend. Now it’s 2025, and here comes the government’s office space.

What Should Tesla’s Stock Be Worth? Automaker, Stagnating Vehicle Sales like GM & Ford, Getting Overtaken by Competitors, Losing Share in the Booming EV Market?

Tesla is now just ar mid-size automaker amid EV competition that is eating its lunch. What might realistic valuations mean for Musk’s clout?

“The Next Crash Could Be Much Bigger Than the Last Two”

Rentierism in housing in the UK has reached what looks like nose-bleed, self-correcting, and thus potentially crash-inducing levels.

Wall Street Journal Tries “Recovery Finally Underway” Office Space Patter as Securitized Office Mortgage Delinquencies Hit a New Post-Crisis High of 10.4%

The Journal gets egg on its face for trying to call a bottom in the office space market even as delinquencies were accelerating

Longer-Term Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates Explode, Yield Curve Un-Inverts Further as Bond Market Gets Spooked

Stock jockeys love Trump and bond vigilantes do not. What do their diverging views say about the prospects for the US economy?

Fall Fashion’s Economic Forecast

A sampling of fall/winter women’s frocks does not make for an upbeat economic forecast.

Days After Rate Cut, S&P’s Flash PMI Sees Rising Inflation and Exhorts the Fed to “Move Cautiously” with “Further Rate Cuts”

S&P: “The “reacceleration of inflation” suggests “the Fed cannot totally shift its focus away from its inflation target.”