Dean Baker Exposes How CBO Cooks Inflation Forecasts to Promote Deficit Scaremongering
Yet more funny forecasts from the CBO telling you why you can’t have nice things, like a better job market.
Read more...Category Archives: Investment outlook
Wolf Richter: What the Heck is Going on in the Stock Market?
Even Moody’s which is always late to the party with its warnings – but when it does warn, it’s a good idea to pay attention – finally warned: “Don’t fall into the trap of believing all is well outside of oil & gas.”
Read more...Wolf Richter: Inadequate Corporate Investment Falls Even Further
Lousy levels of corporate investment are only getting worse….much worse.
Read more...Office of Financial Research Warns of Corporate Debt Defaults, Particularly Related to Energy Loans, as Stability Risk
Nothing like the downgrades and the prospect of default to focus the mind….
Read more...Investors Piling into Illiquid Assets to Avoid Discipline of Market Prices
Investors are piling into risky, illiquid assets at the worst possible time and for the worst reason: to fake performance.
Read more...Wolf Richter: Moody’s Explains Why Junk Bonds Will Sink Stocks Further
Why the high risk spreads in the junk bond market bode ill for the stock market.
Read more...Bloomberg Spotlights Poor Private Equity Returns From Last “Peak of Cycle” Mega Deals
Buying at the peak rarely works out, as private equity’s pre-crisis mega deals confirm. Yet general partners fared really well.
Read more...The World Is Not Running Out Of Storage Space For Oil
The implications of the fact that there is still more oil storage capacity for prices.
Read more...Funds Hold Most Cash Since GFC
Fund manager cash holdings are at crisis-bottom levels, typically a sound bullish indicator. But will history predict the future this time?
Read more...US Oil Futures Plunge by Nearly 7%, to $26.55 a Barrel; Stocks Swoon
Oil has ratcheted down again and stocks are getting hammered.
Read more...Investment Manager GMO Debunks Mythology of “Sound Finance,” or Deficit Hawkery
Yves here. Sometimes it is best to let things speak for themselves. In that spirit, I am embedding a very important paper by the well-respected investment management firm GMO which debunks the tenets of “sound finance,” meaning the claim that governments need to balance their budgets. I expect to be referring to it regularly, particularly […]
Read more...Edward Lambert: Forecasting the Stock Market thru Effective Demand
Dave here. The markets have taken a beating in 2016, and while the fallacy of thinking the market=the economy seems like an oversimplification, this post provides a competing viewpoint that, without taking a position in affirmation or dissent, I thought I would offer up for discussion. For some background, you can read Edward’s other posts […]
Read more...Marshall Auerback: What US Treasury Yields Might Be Signalling
Bond yields warn of deflation. How real is this worry?
Read more...Wolf Richter: Welcome to 2016! With Just a Touch of Mayhem for Stocks
Stocks took a beating around the globe on the first day back in 2016. Hopes of a better year start out inauspiciously.
Read more...Wolf Richter: “Distress” in US Corporate Debt Spikes to 2009 Level
Experts expected bankruptcies of highly levered borrowers in 2013-2014, but cheap refis under ZIRP bailed them out. We are again at peak leverage, but this time, there’s no prospect of lower rates to provide a rescue.
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