Category Archives: Investment outlook

Why Inflation Sticks Around: The Role of Class Warfare in Price Persistence

A new twist on inflation: how workers and corporates trying to preserve their financial position has the effect of perpetuating inflation

Trump’s Self-Destructive Fight with the Fed for Low Interest Rates: His “Fiscal Dominance” Game of Chicken

Trump is fighting another war he can’t win: trying to use interest rates to counter the inflation created by his yawning fiscal deficits.

Why UK [and US] Governments Are Never Dependent on Financial Markets

As Mr. Market idelivers a big raspberry in response to Trump’s big beautiful bill, remember it won’t affect the ability to keep spending

Michael Hudson: The Collapse of America’s Economic Empire

Michael Hudson, expanding on his seminal work Super Imperialism, chroniciles the rise and in-process decline of US financial hegemony.

Sustainable Investment Stumbles on Uncertain Pace of Energy Transition

Green energy investment goes wobbly….again.

Satyajit Das: Middle East Trajectories – Implications for the Region and Energy Markets

A refined (pun intended) discussion of the state of the energy market and the high risk of continued kinetic action between Israel and Iran.

Downgrading Uncle Sam, Not America

An orthodox economist describes inconsistencies in rating agencies’ approach to downgrading US debt and their view of reserve currency status

Will Iran Actually Close the Strait of Hormuz? Eni CEO Weighs In

Investors seem unduly chill about the risk that a US attack on Iran will produce a formal or de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Does TACO Have Predictive Value? Pressures on Trump With Respect to Joining Israel in its Iran War

The war situation with Iran is not necessarily developing to the advantage of Israel, and Trump has to decide what to do.

Ideology-Driven, Inflationary Trump Tax and Tariff Policies Losing War With Bond and Currency Markets

ump’s trade, tariffs and tax schemes are already starting to come apart. And he seems to have no Plan B.

Trump Makes Presumed Empty but Loud Threat to Fire Fed Chair Powell, Showing that Trump Will Continue to Wreck Markets and the Economy to Prove His Manhood

Trump is now taking on Fed chair Powell over Powell’s refusal to cut rates to bail Trump out of the economic messes he created.

Tariffs, the Dollar, and Equities: High-Frequency Evidence from the Liberation Day Announcement

Sales of US equities by foreign owners played a meaningful role in the falll of the dollar after the Trump tariff rampage began.

International Trade Suppression and the Demand for US Treasuries

On how lower foreign government appetite for Treasuries might affect the status of the dollar as reserve currency.

Longer-Dated Treasuries Sell Off Sharply, Increasing Interest Rates: The Exact Opposite of What Trump Says He Wants

Mr. Market, in the form of longer-dated Treasury yields, is not on board with the Trump tariff scheme.

Focus on Market Rout from Overvalued Levels Diverting Attention from Real Economy DOGE, Particularly Social Security and Depth of Tariff Damage

The focus on the market rout pervesely distracts attention from Trump’s massive and probably durable real economy destruction.