The revised terms are similar to those discussed last night, with the Japanese bank investing the same amount but receiving an increased ownership stake (21%) and receiving more in preferred stock. Note confusion in the Journal article: the news alert, says, “MUFG Closes Morgan Stanley Investment With Revised Terms” when the story itself says both […]
Read more...Note: variants of the word “protect” as regards the US Treasury’s stance towards the pending $9 billion Mitsubishi UFJ investment in Morgan Stanley, appeared in the headline and first paragraph of the New York Times discussing the state of the deal. But the text of the article suggests the Treasury may be engaging in a […]
Read more...Boy, there have been bigger bad investments (TPG putting $7 billion into WaMu comes to mind) but seldom has one come cropper as quickly as Mitsubishi UFJ’s $9 billion interest in Morgan Stanley. The bank took a cool $500 million one-day loss. From Bloomberg: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. took a $506 million paper loss […]
Read more...It has been conventional wisdom that China, Japan, and other countries that run trade surpluses with the US, which means they fund our overconsumption by buying assets like US Treauries, would never restrict the flow of credit to us because it would lower their exports and hurt their growth. We’ve long been leery of the […]
Read more...I had wondered when the Japanese would step to the fore. Japanese banks and trading companies are cash rich and undamaged by the financial crisis, having for the most part steered clear of of subprime assets. Note that the Mitsubishi group has long been close to Morgan Stanley. Indeed, it was a surprise to many […]
Read more...Two stories on Bloomberg discussed how the world’s export powerhouses, China and Japan, are feeling the effects of the global slowdown. First on China, which seems inclined to weaken the yuan to defend growth. That’s a mixed blessing for the US. A stronger dollar hurts the export sector, the one sunny area of the economy, […]
Read more...Although one robin does not make a spring, the increased reluctance of Japanese retail and institutional investors to hold GSE debt is worrisome. Bloomberg reports that Japanese retail and institutional investors are unloading foreign debt due to currency volatility and are particularly leery of Fannie and Freddie securities. Admittedly, as Brad Setser has pointed out […]
Read more...Blomberg columnist William Pesek plays out a line of thought that may have occurred to some readers: what if the resolution of the credit crisis and global imbalances isn’t a nasty recession or punishing inflation but Japan-like protracted low growth, with stagnant to deteriorating living standards? This idea may not be as much of a […]
Read more...Many foreign observers of Japan don’t get past the “lost decade/deflation” headline. They miss the fact that Japan has a robust export sector and continues to run high trade surpluses, despite the supposed difficulty of advanced economies competing with emerging markets. But how has this outcome been achieved? As Michiyo Nakamoto tells us in a […]
Read more...The Fed has tended to dismiss the inflationary impact of rising energy and food prices, arguing that they aren’t significant until they lead to inflationary expectations and higher wage demands. Yet in Japan, where zero inflation to deflation has been the norm, and workers, like their American peers, lack bargaining power, not only have inflation […]
Read more...Cassandra takes what she admits to be a flier at a topic worthy of deeper examination: Do you think The People are less discontented under an inflationary regime or a deflationary regime? She reaches a conclusion, no doubt colored by her deep association with Japan, that deflation is not as bad as it is touted […]
Read more...In “Japan may be rigid but it is not inefficient,” David Philig takes issue with metrics that find Japan’s service economy to be woefully inefficient. The commonly used yardstick is labor productivity, and Japan allegedly scores badly due to its tendency to have high staff ratios (for instance, those ladies in hotels who walk you […]
Read more...OK, that isn’t what Wolfgang Munchau said in his Financial Times article today. His piece, “The princess’s cake gets an added crunch,” starts with the theory that inflation and our asset bubbles were ultimately monetary phenomena. While the rest of Munchau’s piece, which focuses on why we should be worried about inflation, is useful, I […]
Read more...As the Financial Times points out today, we are witnessing a replay of the pattern seen during Japan’s credit bust, except in reverse. Western banks were leery of extending credit to the Japanese and charged a premium over normal interbank rates. Now that the Japanese credit markets are more liquid than many others, foreign bank […]
Read more...Two articles in the Financial Times, one a discussion of the implications of Japan’s crash for US policy, the other the latest in a series of comments on the credit crisis by Larry Summers, take different views of the best remedies for our economic woes. Unfortunately, the Japanese prescription seems likely to be necessary, yet […]
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