Category Archives: Macroeconomic policy

Portuguese Bank Jitters Intrude on QE-Induced Euphoria

Despite unimpressive and often mixed economic data, market prices in a wide range of financial assets have continued to grind higher. And the results that cheered pundits are hard to square. For instance, Floyd Norris in the New York Times today scratches his head over how inconsistent recent employment gains are with the first quarter GDP contraction at an annualized 2/9% rate. It’s also hard to reconcile with reports of weak retail sales and falling in-store traffic. Similarly, China has become concerned enough about growth that it’s started pump priming again. Even so, car sales dropped by 3.4% in June. And in Japan, machinery orders plunged by 19% in May. And despite the recent discussion of Eurozone recovery, recent reports have put a dent in cheery forecasts.

Bill Black: Merkel’s Pyrrhic Victory over Cameron

The old line that one should be very careful about what one wishes for – for you may receive it applies to Germany’s installation of Jean-Claude Juncker as head of the EU Commission. Germany’s Prime Minister Angela Merkel has just crushed her UK counterpart (David Cameron) by orchestrating a nearly unanimous vote among EU nations to appoint (not, really, “elect”) Juncker as head of the EU Commission (not, really, “Parliament”).

But Merkel has two self-created strategic problems with regard to the EU that threaten the EU and Germany’s dominance over the EU.

Will the Eurozone Be Able to Align National Interests?

Yves here. We ran an earlier post by Ashoda Mody, he argued that Eurozone was failing in resolving its recurring crises successfully. That is a coded way of saying that the odds of breakup are rising. Needless to say, that view elicited a lot of commentary from his readers. Mody addresses their reactions and objection below.

BIS Warns About Destabilizing Low Interest Rates

The financial media is all atwitter (no pun intended) over the Bank of International Settlement’s just released annual report, since it shook a stern finger at central banks for keeping super low interest rates and warned them about the difficulty of renormalizing without kicking up a lot of upheaval.

Randy Wray: Modern Monetary Theory – The Basics

How economists that are otherwise sympathetic to modern monetary theory nevertheless misconstrue some of its fundamental observations. For instance, those like Paul Krugman who are generally of the Keynesian persuasion like MMT’s “deficit owl” approach. Krugman acts as if he would really like to stop worrying about the deficit so that he could advocate an “as much as it takes” approach to government spending. The problem is that he just cannot quite get a handle on the monetary operations that are required. Won’t government run out? What, is government going to create money “out of thin air”? Where will all the money come from?

Philip Pilkington: ‘Uncertainty’ in Contemporary DSGE Modelling – Not Even Wrong

Yves here. This post might seem a smidge technical for generalist readers, but have faith. Pilkington uses DSGE models, a widely used type of macroeconomic forecasting model, to demonstrate the prevalence of intellectual bankruptcy in economics. As he writes,

The level of scholarship in contemporary economics is absolutely shocking. Contemporary theorists just pick up on buzzwords that they hear in the media and then assume that they have understood them. Then they scramble to build some arcane model or other in which they assure others that they have captured the meaning of the buzzword in question. The mathematics then becomes a cloak hiding the fact that they have never bothered to actually think through the concepts they are using.

This is frighteningly similar to something I wrote:

That was one of the scary things I finally figured out during my last visit to DC. I thought people constructed policy first and then reduced it to soundbites to sell it. I came to realize that most people in DC reason from soundbites (as in their analysis and policy design is constructed from soundbites from the get-go).

Bill Black: The EU Center-Right and Ultra-Right’s Continuing War on the People of the EU

The New York Times has provided us with an invaluable column about the interactions of the EU’s rightist and ultra-rightest parties. It is invaluable because it is (unintentionally) so revealing about the EU’s right and ultra-right parties and the NYT’s inability to understand either the EU economic or political crises. The NYT article illustrates its points by presenting a tale entitled “A German Voice, Hans-Olaf Henkel, Calls for Euro’s Abolition.” It treats Henkel, an open racist and austerian, as a reputable figure, apparently because he is wealthy.

Yanis Varoufakis: Europe’s Crisis –The Rise of the Ultra-Right is the Left’s Fault

The recent European elections were a decisive victory for the right, and the craven, co-opted left has no one but itself to blame.

How the Troika, the WSJ and the NYT Keep the Public Befuddled About Austerity and Deflation

Deflation proves that austerity policies are failing, but the media is doing a remarkable job of keeping readers confused and ignorant.

Robert Pollin and Dean Baker Discuss the Anemic Recovery and Why Economists Don’t Recommend Real Remedies

A good discussion of why the weak economic recovery has only helped those at the very top, and why economists who know better continue to enable that.

Mathew D. Rose: When European Politicians Cannot Read the Handwriting on the Wall

Despite the alarming results of the European elections last week, Angela Merkel remained unflinching. That is a cause for concern. European politicians believe the solution to voter ire is better messaging, as opposed to a change in policy.

Bill Black: Spain’s “Stimulus” Plan – Austerity, Rebranded

Spain’s conservative government, eager to change the media’s emphasis on its repudiation in recent EU elections, has launched a media campaign stressing its adoption of an aggressive “stimulus” program. But once you get past the hype, this new program is the same old failed austerity snake oil.

Michael Hudson: The EU Parliament Elections as a Vote Against the Oligarchs

The US press and newscasts make it appear that Europeans have voted against poor immigrants and foreigners. What they voted against was the super-rich, the oligarchy.

Randy Wray: Taxes and the Public Purpose

Governments use taxes to move resources to the public sector, where they can be used to promote social goals.

Yanis Varoufakis: One Extreme Europe? On the Parliamentary Election Results

Conventional wisdom that extreme parties on the right and left won in the European Parliamentary elections. In fact, only one extreme won.