Category Archives: Macroeconomic policy

All Debt is Not Created Equal: Government Debt is NOT the Same as Private Debt

By Marshall Auerback, an investment strategist and analyst who writes for New Deal 2.0. A major shortcoming in an otherwise thoughtful post by DoctoRX on deficit spending is a traditional mistake in which analysts seek to analogise the expenditures of government with that of a private household or business. The government is sovereign. This fact […]

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Guest Post: Big Banks Are NOT More Efficient

By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. I have repeatedly pointed out that big banks are not more efficient than smaller banks. For example, I previously noted that an article in Fortune concluded: The largest banks often don’t show the greatest efficiency. This now seems unsurprising given the deep problems that the biggest institutions have faced […]

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Debate on Deficits: A Reply from Rob Parenteau

Rob Parenteau, CFA, sole proprietor of MacroStrategy Edge, editor of the Richebacher Letter, and a research associate with the Levy Economics Institute, responds to DoctoRx’s post, “Debate on Deficits.” DoctoRx raises a wide swath of excellent questions regarding the correct approach to financial crises, the economic contractions they can induce, and the best way forward. […]

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Marc Faber: Taking the inflationista view of macro events

Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. This is a re-post of an article I wrote last night at Credit Writedowns where I stressed a U.S.-centric view of Faber’s comments that the Fed is a money printer. However, here I have re-dubbed the post to reflect Faber’s comments, which are more comprehensive, in effect pointing […]

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The recession is over but the depression has just begun

Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns This is a post I wrote earlier to day at Credit Writedowns. I just noticed that Albert Edwards and David Rosenberg are saying similar things. See the FT Alphaville post on their comments here. As for me, for the last few months, I have been casting around looking […]

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Guest Post: Credit Default Swaps – Love ‘Em, Ban ‘Em, or Tax ‘Em?

(Yves should be back  – and so the site should return to normal – tomorrow. If all goes according to plan, you’ll be hearing a lot less from me for a week or so. Yves’ book – Econned – will be quite valuable, and so well worth the wait. ) By George Washington of Washington’s […]

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Guest Post: How Well Has The Federal Reserve Performed for America?

By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. How well has the Federal Reserve performed for America? Mainstream pundits, of course, say that Bernanke has saved the world . . . . but they said the same thing about Greenspan.  So let’s look at the actual historical record to determine how well the Fed has done. Initially, […]

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Guest Post: Why Concentration in the Banking Industry Threatens Our Economy

By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. As everyone knows, the big banks have gotten bigger and bigger. Noted economist Mark Zandi says we have an oligopoly of banks, and that “the oligopoly has tightened”. The TARP Inspector – Neil Barofsky – told Huffington Post yesterday that, because of the consolidation in the banking industry: I […]

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Guest Post: Deflation?

By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. As Absolute Return Partners wrote in its July newsletter: The most important investment decision you will have to make this year and possibly for years to come is whether to structure your portfolio for deflation or inflation. So which is it, inflation or deflation? This is obviously a hot […]

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Guest Post: Top Economists Say We Must Break Up the Insolvent Banks (Government Says Let’s Make Them Bigger)

By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. The following top economists and financial experts believe that the economy cannot recover unless the big, insolvent banks are broken up in an orderly fashion: Nobel prize-winning economist, Joseph Stiglitz Nobel prize-winning economist, Ed Prescott Dean and professor of finance and economics at Columbia Business School, and chairman of […]

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Guest Post: How Bad Will Unemployment Get, And What Can We Do About It?

By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. Unemployment is disastrous on both the individual and societal level. Individuals who look for work but can’t find it are miserable.  Indeed, most people who lose their job are unprepared for their circumstances.[1] On the national level, high unemployment is both cause and effect concerning other problems with the […]

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Deflation Worries Looking More Credible

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has not given up on his deflationary views, which until recently were quite an outlier. But some recent data releases give support to his downbeat take. From the Telegraph: CPI inflation has dropped to –2.2pc in Japan (a modern record), -2.1pc in the US, -1.8pc in China, -1.4pc in Spain, -0.7pc in France, […]

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Macro Hedge Funds Betting Against Recovery Story

Note that while this Bloomberg story discusses that some major hedge funds are skeptical of the theory that the recovery is on, for the most part, it is silent on how they are implementing that view. Recall that even if a trader does make a correct fundamental call, investing successfully on it is another matter. […]

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Twenty-Five Years to Work Off the Debt Overhang?

T. S. Eliot was right. Human beings cannot stand very much reality. As much as I have an appetite for bearish views (I figure the optimist case gets disproportionate air time), the headline of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard’s latest piece, “Our quarter-century penance is just starting,” is grim even by the standards of the bearish faithful. Evans-Pritchard, […]

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