As Satyajit Das remarked, our post global financial crisis malaise has some troubling elements in common with Japan’s post bubble era. One biggie is denial of the seriousness of the hangover, which per Das lasted for five years in Japan. The bizarre aspect of the crisis response in the US was the speed and recklessness […]
Read more...The spin-meisters continue to package things that ought to incite outrage in anodyne wrappers in the hope no one will look inside. “The new normal” and “structural unemployment” join the universe inhabited by such gems as “extraordinary rendition” and “pre-emptive strike”. “New normal” is particularly insidious, since it implies that we must accept current conditions, […]
Read more...By Mike Konczal, a Roosevelt Institute fellow who posts at New Deal 2.0 Arjun Jayadev and I have another working paper out of Roosevelt Institute, this time focusing on the labor market in the current recession. The paper is: The Stagnating Labor Market (pdf). I hope you check it out; I’m going to talk about […]
Read more...The notion that excessive supply can result in overly high costs no doubt contradicts most reader’s understanding of how markets work, but the market for medical services in the US bears no resemblance to an efficient market, in which buyers and sellers possess an equally good understanding of the merits of the goods and services […]
Read more...By Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed. Since then, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side. The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston recently published a paper titled: “Reasonable People Could Disagree: Optimism and Pessimism About […]
Read more...An interesting paper at VoxEU provides some empirical support for a commonsensical observation: that the pervasive use of limited liability structures for virtually all financial services activities creates “heads I win, tails you lose” dynamics. If you have no downside and can earn more by taking risk, then why not? While bad incentives like these […]
Read more...Wolfgang Munchau has an intriguing piece at the Financial Times debunking the idea the Germany’s recent peppy growth numbers are as salutary as Mr. Market seems to believe. Part of his message isn’t necessarily all that surprising, and comes towards the end of the article: ….it is important to keep some perspective and not draw […]
Read more...→ Rajiv Sethi Back in 1980, Avraham Beja and Barry Goldman published a theoretical paper in the Journal of Finance that explored the manner in which the composition of trading strategies in an asset market affects the volatility of prices. Their main insight was that if the prevalence of momentum based strategies was too large […]
Read more...By Max Bruche. Assistant Professor of Economics, CEMFI and Gerard Llobet i Codina, Associate Professor of Economics, CEMFI. Originally posted at VoxEU Bank bailouts have been controversial from the outset, with some commentators saying that they reward banks for making risky loans. This column investigates the idea of an asset buyback in which a special […]
Read more...According to Pimco’s global strategic adviser Richard Clarida and CEO Mohamed El-Erian, the new normal is not normal, and that has profound implications for investors. Some of the conclusions may sound a tad self-serving, in that Pimco is a bond shop, and fat tails implies more risk (or more accurately, higher odds of more extreme […]
Read more...→ Rajiv Sethi In a recent post on his (consistently interesting) blog, David Murphy questions the value of equilibrium analysis in economics and finance, and points to two earlier posts of his in which the same point is made. Here he is in July 2007: An interesting post on the Street Light Blog, on currency […]
Read more...Cross-posted from The price of everything By Tim Price, Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management, a London-based fund manager “More than half of all workers have experienced a spell of unemployment, taken a cut in pay or hours or been forced to go part-time. The typical unemployed worker has been jobless for nearly six […]
Read more...This post first appeared on April 16, 2007 I always take note when a writer takes a position that is contrary to his usual stance. Tyler Cowen of Marginal Revolution is an intelligent and thoughtful commentator, but hews too closely to free market orthodoxy for my taste. But his review of Maggie Mahar’s Money- Driven […]
Read more...We’ve pointed out from time to time that the financial services industry has lost sight of its role. While helping companies borrow and raise money, providing investment and saving vehicles and payment services are all useful activities, the cost of financial intermediation is ultimately a tax on commerce. Perversely, some businessmen complain bitterly about how […]
Read more...→ Rajiv Sethi In a recent paper on financial innovation and fragility, Gennaioli, Shleifer and Vishny argue that investors (and often also financial intermediaries) are hobbled by certain systematic cognitive biases that cause them to neglect unlikely events when assessing asset values. They argue that such “local thinking” results in the creation and excessive issuance […]
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