Category Archives: Moral hazard

The Incredible Shrinking HBOS Fraud

Reviewing the press coverage of the HBOS fraud charges, and asking some questions.

Cathy O’Neil: Why Nate Silver is Not Just Wrong, but Maliciously Wrong

By Cathy O’Neil, a data scientist. Cross posted from mathbabe

I just finished reading Nate Silver’s newish book, The Signal and the Noise: Why so many predictions fail – but some don’t. I have major problems with this book and what it claims to explain. In fact, I’m angry.

Ian Fraser: HSBC’s $1.9 Billion Settlement Sets (Another) Dangerous Precedent

Yves here. One of the things that has too often gone missing in the many discussions of why massive scale money launderer HSBC was not prosecuted is the basis of the “doing that would be destabilizing” excuse. When a company is indicted (mind you, indicted, not convicted), pretty much all Federal and many (most?) state agencies are required to stop doing business with it, immediately. The effect of the loss of so much business, particularly for a large financial firm, is seen as a death knell.

Of course, that’s the point.

Abigail Field: HousingWire Propaganda Part II – The Irresponsible Borrower Myth, Harry & Louise Style

By Abigail Field, a lawyer and writer. Cross posted from Reality Check

Showalter pushes the ‘it’s not the mod terms, it’s the bad borrower’ idea with far more than just a “Living Large” headline. He invents two couples, pitched as archetypes of good and evil, probably hoping to copy the policy-killing success of Harry and Louise. But this invocation of the irresponsible borrower myth is particularly egregious–both borrowers are trying to be responsible in the face of insolvency.

Escalating Delinquency Rates Make Student Loans Look Like the New Subprime

ow that student loans are undeniably in bubble territory, the officialdom is starting to wake up and take notice.

Quelle Surprise! New York Fed Chair Dudley Confirms that TBTF Lives, Big Firms Still Can’t Be Resolved

The New York Fed’s William Dudley gave a surprisingly candid, meaning not positive, assessment of the state of the Too Big to Fail problem in a speech yesterday at the Clearing House’s Second Annual Business Meeting and Conference. From the text of his speech (hat tip Richard Smith):

How Botched Derivatives Risk Taming Regulations are Again Going to Leave Taxpayers Holding the Bag

An important piece in the Financial Times by Manmohan Singh, a senior economist at the International Monetary Fund, describes persuasively how one of the central vehicles for reducing derivatives risk, that of having a central counterparty (CCP) and requiring dealers to trade with it rather than have a web of bi-lateral exposures, or rely on banks to act as clearers (making them too big to fail) has gone pear shaped. While the immediate reason for this outcome is the unwillingness of national banking regulators to cede powers to an international clearinghouse, Singh fingers an equally important cause: the reluctance to recognize that the underlying problem was and remains undercollateralized derivatives positions. His introduction to the mess:

Rajiv Sethi: Of Bulls and Bair

By Rajiv Sethi, Professor of Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University & External Professor, Santa Fe Institute. Cross posted from his blog

Sheila Bair’s new book, Bull by the Horns, is both a crisis narrative and a thoughtful reflection on economic institutions and policy. The crisis narrative, with its revealing first-hand accounts of high-level meetings, high-stakes negotiations, behind-the-scenes jockeying, and clashing personalities will attract the most immediate attention. But it’s the economic analysis that will constitute the more enduring contribution.

Robert Jenkins: Puncturing Bankers’ Myths

In this speech,Robert Jenkins of the Bank of England blows apart the self-serving myths that ‘old guard’ bankers and their lobbyists have been peddling since the financial crisis ripped apart the global financial system in 2007.

Criminal Sanctions: How to Save Banks Without Rewarding Bankers

Yves here. This article falls in the “mirabile dictu” category: an economist arguing that putting bankers in jail is necessary to combat the deterioration in behavior.

By Giancarlo Spagnolo, Professor of Economics at University of Rome “Tor Vergata” and CEPR Research Affiliate. Cross posted from VoxEU

How to save the banks but not the bankers? This column argues that fines for criminal behaviour in banks are not enough – it may be time to start locking people up.

Randy Wray: Why We’re Screwed

By L. Randall Wray, Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. Cross posted from Economonitor

As the Global Financial Crisis rumbles along in its fifth year, we read the latest revelations of bankster fraud, the LIBOR scandal. This follows the muni bond fixing scam detailed a couple of weeks ago, as well as the J.P. Morgan trading fiasco and the Corzine-MF Global collapse and any number of other scandals in recent months. In every case it was traders run amuck, fixing “markets” to make an easy buck at someone’s expense. In times like these, I always recall Robert Sherrill’s 1990 statement about the S&L crisis that “thievery is what unregulated capitalism is all about.”

Chris Cook: Libor and Oil Market Manipulation – Rage Against the Dying of the Light

By Chris Cook, former compliance and market supervision director of the International Petroleum Exchange

A generation of markets is dying and the era of the Middleman is coming to an end. The ‘Bezzle’ – as J K Galbraith described financial misbehaviour in a boom, revealed by a bust – is now coming to light.